Could Apple Blow Its iPod Lead?

[MacBytes]

Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Could Apple Blow Its iPod Lead? (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20041207131559)
Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by Mudbug

[brap]

Wall Street analysts' price targets for Apple's stock are soaring as high as $77 to $100. As of Dec. 6, the stock was trading at around $64. This is the same Apple that opened the year at $21.28. And it's all because of one cool little music player.
Yawn.

Sure, it's not like they make computers, or anything.

[jbembe]

Don't waste your time reading this article. There's a simple answer they missed: NO! :cool:

[grapes911]

Don't waste your time reading this article. There's a simple answer they missed: NO! :cool:

Don't be too cocky. At on point in time Apple had the dominant desktop. I hope history doesn't repeat.

[wordmunger]

The article actually has some good information. However, its main thesis -- that Apple could screw up with the iPod because it did with computers twenty-some years ago -- is a little weak, and it's not backed up with any sort of evidence. What type of mistakes did Apple make then? Does it look like Apple is making the same mistakes this time around?

To me, the main mistake Apple made in the '80s is not recognizing the power of a company like IBM to market PCs to business. The analogous situation now is not Dell or HP, but Sony or Pioneer. I think Apple has done a great job positioning itself as a serious entertainment company in their league -- BUT -- Apple needs to provide a complete line of iPod compatible entertainment products -- car stereos, home theater, etc. -- if it's going to compete in the long run.

[wrldwzrd89]

The article actually has some good information. However, its main thesis -- that Apple could screw up with the iPod because it did with computers twenty-some years ago -- is a little weak, and it's not backed up with any sort of evidence. What type of mistakes did Apple make then? Does it look like Apple is making the same mistakes this time around?

To me, the main mistake Apple made in the '80s is not recognizing the power of a company like IBM to market PCs to business. The analogous situation now is not Dell or HP, but Sony or Pioneer. I think Apple has done a great job positioning itself as a serious entertainment company in their league -- BUT -- Apple needs to provide a complete line of iPod compatible entertainment products -- car stereos, home theater, etc. -- if it's going to compete in the long run.
I think Apple prefers to let third parties make some of this stuff - just look at the huge array of iPod accessories available. Apple also lets the car companies do the work of putting the iPod compatibility into their stereos simply because Apple isn't in that market. So far, this approach seems to be working. Apple also has plans to continue making these kinds of deals - a possible agreement with Motorola to put iTunes on phones is an example.

[jkhanson]

Don't be too cocky. At on point in time Apple had the dominant desktop. I hope history doesn't repeat.

Apple never had the dominant desktop.

[grapes911]

Apple never had the dominant desktop.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I've always read that Apple was very dominant in the desktop market. Its even in the article from this thread:
Sure, Dell and HP have bested Apple at a game it dominated before, the PC market.

[the_mole1314]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I've always read that Apple was very dominant in the desktop market. Its even in the article from this thread:

Apple had max around 20-30% of the PC market.

[kerb]

and one other single manufactuer had more?

[wordmunger]

Boy, this is surprising: based on this chart (http://www.pegasus3d.com/total_share.html), I'd say Apple never enjoyed the kind of dominance with computers that they now have with MP3 players. Hadn't realized that -- though the chart is in unit sales, not dollars. I'd say in '81, Apple was doing more dollars of PC business than anyone.

[tutubibi]

For Apple's future it's not iPod, it's what comes after iPod. Where it will evolve or what new product will Apple bring to market.

MP3 players will become commodity so nobody will be able to charge $100+ for one. Just look at portable CD players: Couple of years ago premium brands like Sony or Panasonic asked for $ 200 for CD player. Now they are selling top of the line model for less than $ 100.

[nagromme]

At on point in time Apple had the dominant desktop. I hope history doesn't repeat.

That would have been fun (except I hated Macs until recently!) but it wasn't true. Macs were always the minority platform, looked down upon by the MS masses. Yes, even in the early days when Macs had a real GUI and MS had DOS! People said mice would never catch on... and DOS PCs far outsold Macs.

In specific niches, Apple has done well of course. Publishing etc. In education, the Apple II might have been THE top machine. Wouldn't surprise me. (And Apple did have a nice chunk of the home market with the Apple II line.) But they were never the top desktop platform overall.

With music they are, by far.

And yes, of course they can--and, one day, WILL--lose that lead. It won't stop them from making great Macs when it happens. Plus, by then it will be World War 4's nuclear winter and we'll all have bigger problems :)

[williamsonrg]

Articles like this have been a dime a dozen lately, and I and others have already made most of the comments worth making. At this point, I just want to fast-forward 10 years and see what's happened. I can see it all going a different number of ways, and I'm just impatient to wait and see...

[wordmunger]

That would have been fun (except I hated Macs until recently!) but it wasn't true. Macs were always the minority platform, looked down upon by the MS masses. Yes, even in the early days when Macs had a real GUI and MS had DOS! People said mice would never catch on... and DOS PCs far outsold Macs.


MACS, yes. But Apple was King of the Hill in '81-'82, with the Apple 2.

[StarbucksSam]

Yawn.

Sure, it's not like they make computers, or anything.

Point taken. But..

The iPod is EXTREMELY successful in comparison to their computers.

[brap]

Point taken. But..

The iPod is EXTREMELY successful in comparison to their computers.
To say Apple is a one-hit wonder, which is what this analyst is effectively doing, is toss. Airport Express? 30" Display? iMac G5? I think they pretty well count as 'assets' :rolleyes:

[wrldwzrd89]

To say Apple is a one-hit wonder, which is what this analyst is effectively doing, is toss. Airport Express? 30" Display? iMac G5? I think they pretty well count as 'assets' :rolleyes:
I agree with you, even though I only think I understand what you're saying since I haven't been around British English for 7 years (I used to live in England, but I wasn't born there - I was born in the USA).

[StarbucksSam]

To say Apple is a one-hit wonder, which is what this analyst is effectively doing, is toss. Airport Express? 30" Display? iMac G5? I think they pretty well count as 'assets' :rolleyes:

Okay.. that's fair. But the iPod is by far the MOST successful product; and I'm going to say that's because of a few things:

A) It was the first (I THINK, don't kill me if I'm wrong) high-capacity music player out there.
B) It REALLY took off when it became Windows compatible.
C) The fact that pop culture has adopted it as an icon isn't exactly hurting it.

[brap]

I agree with you, even though I only think I understand what you're saying since I haven't been around British English for 7 years (I used to live in England, but I wasn't born there - I was born in the USA). Hehe... :p :D

Sorry... [ashamed] Which bit is confusing, guv'nor?


Okay.. that's fair. But the iPod is by far the MOST successful product; and I'm going to say that's because of a few things: ...
Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with the fact iPod is huge. This silly article, however, has overlooked the fact that this year Apple have come out with some brand-spanking new, completely original products - if not in design, example 30" display, then in simplicity and funtionality, example Airport Express. Share prices would hardly have fallen.

[StarbucksSam]

I hate to do this to you again... but if you want to go into share prices...

iPod.

I am an Apple stockholder and have been for a LONG time so please bare with me as I explain because I watch these things carefully.

Tech stocks are based largely on publicity. The Wall Street Journal used to trash Apple (yes, I read it. I'm a geek.) but lately they have been praising Apple. The iPod is Apple's biggest success by far in the field of stock because it keeps Apple on people's minds.

Kids aren't going to beg for an Airport Extreme Base Station, and neither are college students. Lawyers aren't going to give their colleagues GarageBand or an iMac. While these things are all definitely brilliant and do not deserve to be discounted, the iPod is the best for Apple's stock becuase...

MUSIC IS UNIVERSAL. ALMOST everyone likes music. You can give almost anyone an iPod and they will be able to enjoy it. It's just got a bigger market, gets more publicity, and therefore is majorly responsible for the increase in Apple's stock.

[brap]

I hate to do this to you again... but if you want to go into share prices...
I don't, but that's the whole thrust of the article :)
[snip]...majorly responsible for the increase in Apple's stock.
Yep, of course it's a major part - but it's not the beginning and the end. Which is great. Can we agree to agree now? :rolleyes:

[StarbucksSam]

I concur with you fully.

[Fiveos22]

A) It was the first (I THINK, don't kill me if I'm wrong) high-capacity music player out there.



I had a Archos Jukebox 5000 before the iPod came out. It was 5 gigs just like the iPod (I think they even had a 10 gig player out at the same time). Of course it was only USB 1 and took forever to transfer.

Apple didn't have the first hard-drive based player though.

[wrldwzrd89]

Hehe... :p :D

Sorry... [ashamed] Which bit is confusing, guv'nor?


Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with the fact iPod is huge. This silly article, however, has overlooked the fact that this year Apple have come out with some brand-spanking new, completely original products - if not in design, example 30" display, then in simplicity and funtionality, example Airport Express. Share prices would hardly have fallen.
Where you said "is toss" is a British-specific thing I'm not familiar with. I assume that it means the same thing as saying:

blah is garbage
blah is bull

you get the idea...

[brap]

you get the idea...
Yeah, derogatory term it is :o

[nagromme]

MACS, yes. But Apple was King of the Hill in '81-'82, with the Apple 2.

I'm skeptical of that table linked above--it actually shows Atari 400/800 as the best-selling computer by FAR in 1981, beating Apple II, and beating all Intel machines COMBINED by a factor of 10. Thus, I have to wonder if they're looking at just one slice of the market--like home and/or education. I was never of the impression that Atari was the top-selling computer overall! (And they're not counting consoles.)

But in any case, even if that chart's correct, Atari beat Apple every year, until Intel PCs took over that role in 1983. (And the "Other" category is much bigger than even Atari's share.) Apple was never number one, much less having over half the market... much LESS having MOST of the market, like they do now with music.