ASUSTeK to Manufacture Flash iPods?

[MacRumors]

Taiwanese newspaper Apple Daily (http://www.appledaily.com.tw/template/twapple/art_main.cfm?loc=TP&showdate=20041218&sec_id=8&art_id=1455768) reported yesterday that ASUSTeK Computer Inc. has received an order to manufacture about 5 million iPods based on flash memory (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/11/20041112164321.shtml) for delivery next year, with the deliveries beginning in the first quarter of 2005. The FOB (wholesale export) price is said to be $65.

Taiwan-based ASUSTeK is a major manufacturing company, capable of producing two million motherboards and 150,000 notebook computers each month, as well as SCSI cards, video cards, network cards, and other peripherals.

Note: The article is in Chinese.

See related stories Flash iPod Details? (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/12/20041207110557.shtml) and Toshiba To Supply Apple With Flash Memory? (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/12/20041209201356.shtml)

[Freg3000]

$65 for the entire Flash iPod, or just the flash components of the Flash iPod? If Apple can make it for only 65 bucks, even with a 50% we still will have our $100 digital music player from Apple.

If not, I am still guessing $149.

[jimjiminyjim]

Good ol' sherlock makes it readable. Sorta. Too bad they don't say what size flash memory will be in them.

[swissmann]

If it truly is $65 cost to Apple it will be interesting to see how much they mark it up.

[Sun Baked]

If it truly is $65 cost to Apple it will be interesting to see how much they mark it up.Well Apple typically doesn't hit the market at a competitive price with the low-end -- more in line with the premium end of the market.

So we'll probably see them at the $149 or $199 price and @ 1-2GB.

Especially since it's doubtful that the $65 is the end price Apple is paying after shipping, marketing, and R&D are factored in. :(

Most other companies would eat those front end costs to get a foothold, and I don't see Apple doing that.

[johnbro23]

So we'll probably see them at the $149 or $199 price and @ 1-2GB.


You think 2 GB? I thought people were saying that 2 gigs of flash would be way to expensive for an iPod.

[Sun Baked]

You think 2 GB? I thought people were saying that 2 gigs of flash would be way to expensive for an iPod.Don't think they'll hit 2GB, but the 512MB is a bit unlike Apple since that seems to be where some of the $99-$149 players are.

Plus they tend to make huge aggressive moves at times, and offering a 1-2GB Flash iPod for the price of some of the Flash drive only units would be a typical Steve Jobs move. ;)

Plus it would tend to tie up the 1-2GB Flash modules other would need to compete against Apple. Apple tried this trick with the iPods and the iPod minis.

Edit: Don't think they'll top out with a 2GB flash iPod for $199 and a 1GB for $149, but it's almost something you would expect them to do.

[Doctor Q]

Apple likes to offer the quality choice in a market. So I expect their new low-end (for Apple) iPod to be the high end of the flash market.

[Trowaman]

Are we sure motorolla has nothing to do with this one? Forgive me, I'm remaining stead fast with my assumption that the flash pod and the iPhone are 1 and the same where the iPhone will hold a 1 GB flash card that can hold your music.

[slipper]

i dont know quality wise, but i know a lot of Asustek products just plain suck. If Asustek has decent quality, i wouldnt worry because Apple would be designing the interface.

[virus1]

Apple likes to offer the quality choice in a market. So I expect their new low-end (for Apple) iPod to be the high end of the flash market.

True.. But it really depends. Apple wants to hit the market where it is in the most need. And that would be at about 1GB. 250 songs. Not too bad if its for $150, and has the class and style of an ipod.

[junior]

Are we sure motorolla has nothing to do with this one? Forgive me, I'm remaining stead fast with my assumption that the flash pod and the iPhone are 1 and the same where the iPhone will hold a 1 GB flash card that can hold your music.

I think Apple wants a chunk of the flash player market. They won't get that with a mobile phone. Plus, it's alreaedy been stated that the phone being developed would be like an accessory to the ipod.

[Nermal]

i dont know quality wise, but i know a lot of Asustek products just plain suck. If Asustek has decent quality, i wouldnt worry because Apple would be designing the interface.

Their cheaper products can be pretty bad, but their more expensive stuff is good (I once bought a $450 motherboard from them and it was excellent).

[Yvan256]

Apple likes to offer the quality choice in a market. So I expect their new low-end (for Apple) iPod to be the high end of the flash market.

Nope, when they introduced the iPod mini, it was exactly to compete with the high-end flash players.

My guess is that a iPod mini Flash would compete with at least the middle-end flash players. That means 129~149$US for 1GB, IMO.

[Yvan256]

I think Apple wants a chunk of the flash player market. They won't get that with a mobile phone. Plus, it's alreaedy been stated that the phone being developed would be like an accessory to the ipod.

And also, Steve said "wouldn't it be great if you could take a dozen songs with you on your phone", which implies around 64MB for the "iPhone".

No way Apple would come out with a 64MB iPod mini Flash, after Steve himself ridiculed the other flash players for not having enough storage capacity (was around 128-256MB at the time).

I could see the iPod mini Flash being 1GB, but not 2GB... But if it's 2GB, then I won't complain. :D

[PPC970FX]

I could see the iPod mini Flash being 1GB, but not 2GB... But if it's 2GB, then I won't complain. :D

Well the price is going to show that it is a 2GB chip. And then you will complain :p

[hob]

And also, Steve said "wouldn't it be great if you could take a dozen songs with you on your phone", which implies around 64MB for the "iPhone".

I'm still holding out hope that this flash memory stuff is all for the iPhone. My answer to steve is: "No!" I don't want a dozen songs on my phone. He changes positions more time than a student of the karma sutra. When the iPod was first annoucned he was all like "flash memory - yuk! who wants only 20 songs?" well certainly not me. I'd like a coupla gigs for my phone pod please :D

Hob

[nagromme]

Most other companies would eat those front end costs to get a foothold, and I don't see Apple doing that.
I don't think Apple will be eating any costs: they already HAVE a foothold. (The market's not going to think, "iPods are the best and easiest HD players... but I just don't trust them yet with flash storage.")


Apple likes to offer the quality choice in a market. So I expect their new low-end (for Apple) iPod to be the high end of the flash market.
Agreed. I'd be amazed to see less than 500 songs. Floored to see less than 250!

BTW, if you have full AAC quality (I know HE AAC is a question mark), then:

4 GB = 1000 songs
2 GB = 500 songs
1 GB = 250 songs
512 MB = 125 songs
256 MB = 62 songs
128 MB = 31 songs
64 MB = 15 songs (one CD!)
32 MB = 8 songs (not even! Better drop the quality!)

You can see why Apple would never want to touch the bottom of the market. Most people buying a low-capacity player will be disappointed. Apple wants most of its users to actually USE the thing, I'm sure. They have a usability standard that other companies ignore to make a quick sale. Short-sighted. (Yes, SOME people would be fine with, say, 60 songs--but they're the minority. The people disappointed by their 60-song iPod would oughtweight that unless Apple can offer a VERY low price AND some very clear marketing to make clear that this is NOT an iPod in the usual sense. Maybe "iPod Mediocre" or something :) )

I've actually gotten Xmas junk mail advertising 32 MB MP3 players :eek:

[Doctor Q]

When memory space is tight, companies can choose to play with the numbers by recommending (or simply assuming) a higher compression factor. This very likely corresponds to a lesser sound quality.

Might Apple simply assume higher compression to claim more songs on an iPod micro than they would otherwise claim?

Suppose Apple came up with a new audio compression algorithm that makes tunes smaller than ever before, with only a "slight" further loss of quality. Might Apple boost the advertised number of songs on an iPod micro compared to their calculations for the bigger iPods? Or might they increase their advertised song capacity for all iPods, to get an advantage over competitors who deal with the same capacities?

And, if they did either of these, would the press and consumers call them on it? Would sheep-like consumers listen to the ads, and believe the numbers even if they are "comparing apples and oranges"?

My guess: Apple won't do this.

[Yvan256]

Agreed. I'd be amazed to see less than 500 songs. Floored to see less than 250!

BTW, if you have full AAC quality (I know HE AAC is a question mark), then:

5 GB = 1250 songs
4 GB = 1000 songs
2 GB = 500 songs
1 GB = 250 songs
512 MB = 125 songs
256 MB = 62 songs
128 MB = 31 songs
64 MB = 15 songs (one CD!)
32 MB = 8 songs (not even! Better drop the quality!)


(Note: I've added 5GB in your list, in prevision of the update to the iPod mini)

I'd easily see the iPod micro with 250 songs. After all, 250 songs is still a bit more than 16 full albums (if you count 15 songs per CD). And last time I checked, 16 full albums is still a lot!

Keep in mind that even the iPod mini isn't meant to carry around your whole library (unless you don't have many CDs). Also, a flash player would be perfect for sports, etc. Who needs more than 16 CDs when working out or going on a bike ride?

And if you really need to wow the crowd, just put the iPod micro next to a portable CD player and a stack of 16 CDs. :cool:

(well, not as impressive as putting the iPod Photo 60GB next to a portable CD player and a stack of ... er... 1000 CDs. Ouch) :eek:



[...] The people disappointed by their 60-song iPod would oughtweight that unless Apple can offer a VERY low price AND some very clear marketing to make clear that this is NOT an iPod in the usual sense. Maybe "iPod Mediocre" or something :)

Well, "iPod micro" doesn't imply something big (quite the opposite). They already have the "iPod mini", I can't see a better name than "iPod micro" for the Flash version:

- iPod (hey, I know this one!)
- iPod mini (hey, that's a mini iPod!)
- iPod micro (wow, that's gotta be a way small iPod!)

[Yvan256]

[...]

Might Apple simply assume higher compression to claim more songs on an iPod micro than they would otherwise claim?

Suppose Apple came up with a new audio compression algorithm that makes tunes smaller than ever before, with only a "slight" further loss of quality. Might Apple boost the advertised number of songs on an iPod micro compared to their calculations for the bigger iPods? Or might they increase their advertised song capacity for all iPods, to get an advantage over competitors who deal with the same capacities?

[...]

My guess: Apple won't do this.

Well, they already sort of did it.

When they introduced the iPod, I think it could only play MP3s. And they stated the capacity with 128kbps CD-Quality MP3 songs.

Then they introduced AAC. And kept measuring the capacity with 128kbps CD-Quality AAC songs. But now, if you look at their pages, "CD-Quality MP3" needs to be 160kbps.

They will officially introduce H.264 to the public (last time was for programmers). They will also introduce HE-AAC, and I'd bet they'll all "upgrade" the capacities of all iPods. The iPod micro could really use this (going from 128kbps to 80kbps does equal 1.6 times the capacity), but all iPods could use this too (against the competition). That would leave a big question mark on the iTMS though... So that's why I'm not actually betting. :)

Then, when Microsoft introduces "low-bitrate WMA", we'll have the last laugh, because WMA can't even compete at 128kbps (imagine 80kbps, or even lower if Microsoft thinks it can pull another "consumers are dumb and never really compare their options" stunt).

[mrgreen4242]

Well I still think that 2 players, a 512MB and a 1GB are the likely first gen flashPods. If they have an SD or CF expansion slot, a smaller than iPod mini form factor, and have the iPods excellent interface they do very well (if priced under $200... $149 for 512MB and $179 for 1gb). There could also be some excellent profits to be made form selling Apple branded expansion cards at a nice markup. Maybe do 'exclusive' content card, sort of like what was done with the iPod U2... sell a 512MB or 1GB card preloaded with an album that is not yet available any other way... along with some band themed color and labeling on the car.d

Anyways, if a flash player isn't significantly smaller than the mini there really isn't much point to it, as the mini would be about the same cost, when you figure in at least one flash card upgrade.

My other thought was that if it were to be much smaller than the mini it might be a winning design to put a USB 2.0 adaptor right on the player. Have it slide/fold in and out or something to make it compact, but yo ucould use it as a USB flash drive without carrying around any extra cables, etc. Would also be a distiguishing feature (no other player I've seen has a built in USB plug), and keep it from being not quite as 'cool' as the regular iPods (no firewire support, only USB 2.0). You really wouldn't NEED firewire for only 1GB anyways, USB2.0 would do...

[nagromme]

After all, 250 songs is still a bit more than 16 full albums (if you count 15 songs per CD).
That's true, and 250 is the lowest I can possibly imagine Apple stooping to. But there's another side to capacity: ease of use. The less your player holds, the more labor you must do to keep it fed. More work organizing playlists, more work dumping old music and loading new, more work just THINKING about it. Higher capacity means less effort, less time, less to think about.

I decided that a 4GB Mini would be enough music to be useful to me, and I spent time coming up with a playlist system to make it pretty easy (after some up-front effort). If the Photo hadn't come along, I'd get a Mini. Less music than that? Still useful--but too much work! Both issues must factor into Apple's usability standard. (I know iTunes automates loading a smaller player--but I wasn't happy with how it did so until I made my own Smart Playlist system for that.) Again, I'm not saying low-capacity is wrong for everyone (the common forum habit, "everyone wants what I want!"), but only that it risks being wrong for MANY of its buyers. Many would buy on price and then be disappointed. Apple wouldn't want that for their brand.


Then they introduced AAC. And kept measuring the capacity with 128kbps CD-Quality AAC songs. But now, if you look at their pages, "CD-Quality MP3" needs to be 160kbps.

Just to clarify--Apple didn't ever recommend 128 with MP3. Other companies did, it was the standard for player specs--but Apple always said 160, which was commendable. And it's fair that Apple now measures with 128, because AAC is better quality than MP3.

Back when iTunes used MP3 by default (pre-AAC), the original iPod was loaded by default at 160. Which is why it was 5GB and held 1000 songs, same as the 4GB Mini holds now.

But now, with AAC, that same quality needs only 128. So when Apple now says 160, they are referring SPECIFICALLY to MP3, which is still an option on iPod. But the default is AAC now, and Apple recommends 128 for that.

So it's not really the same as when companies say you can fit twice as many songs by going from 192 MP3 to 96, say. Because that's a loss of quality.

[nagromme]

Anyways, if a flash player isn't significantly smaller than the mini there really isn't much point to it, as the mini would be about the same cost, when you figure in at least one flash card upgrade.

I've always expected the flash iPod would just be the smallest capacity of iPod Mini. Same size and case, just thinner and cheaper. I also wouldn't be surprised if no such animal appears in January. It seems to soon to be cost-effective vs. the Mini, as you say.

But if something DOES appear soon, it may be surprisingly different from current iPods. I can't think of a GOOD solution for flash right NOW (cost for nice capacity is too high), but maybe Apple's thinking in some totally other direction.

Like AirTunes. That makes good sense looking back, but it wasn't what people widely expected from Apple.

(Or like the original iPod... definitely NOT what people thought Apple should be doing :D )

[cubist]

I would imagine that the iPhone would require you to pick a special playlist.

But what happens today if you have too many songs in your iTunes library for your iPod? Does it ask you which playlists to leave off? Is there a way to not sync certain songs to the iPod?

[ccuilla]

Well, first, if we assume these facts are true, and that this represents the total cost of goods (including packaging, headphones...etc...but excluding marketing and R&D...these are not usually factored into "cost of good sold")...and this is probably a safe assumption because it seems unlikely they would have just the device made and shipped to be packaged elsewhere. This will all be done in one facility...and we assume a gross margin of around 30%...this could be a $99 product.

We don't know what the capacity is...but I'd guess 1GB...no display...something you'd load, grab and go...a single playlist device...an additional iPod or and entry-level iPod.

At about 250 songs...this is well over a workday's worth of music. Plus (let's assume) awsome battery life...say 20 hours.

This makes sense to me. It also awesome if they can get a 34% margin on such a low end product! And I could see them easily selling 5M in a single quarter. There are probably 2-3 sold to me for family members.

I think if they make it especially cool...hang it from your neck or something like that...that is all the better.

[Mainyehc]

Would also be a distiguishing feature (no other player I've seen has a built in USB plug)

Hum... I've seen one of those earlier this week, and it sucked, so no, it wouldn't be something that cool. And I don't think Apple would want to implement that, it would be a waste of R&D. They have some preety nice but cheaply produced designs, like the power plug adapters for their power bricks; those are smartly designed but have some rough seams and all, and that's how that kind of components is supposed to be. But not an iPod, no. It's a "fashion statement" :rolleyes:

It would be cool if Apple included in the iPod's package, apart from the regular long cables, something along the lines of SendStation Pocketdock (but with male connectors on both ends), or just an extra short Firewire + USB cable...

Oh, by the way, does anyone here own one of those? And if so, could you tell me if you can connect a PocketDock to a regular iPod dock? It's just that I'd like to recharge my iPod using the power adapter connected to the dock (because my iMac G5 won't recharge the iPod when in sleep mode like my old iMac G4 did). I'd like to leave the dock-connector FW cable always connected to my iMac, and as I have a spare FW cable lying around, I could use that to connect the power adapter to the dock, which is connected with the stereo, in my room :cool: Since probably the Pocketdock won't be much more expensive than a new dock connector FW cable. Even if it's twice as much, I'll still get a great portable accessory, since I'll be buyin the line-out version ;)

[ccuilla]

I am thinking there will be no USB (directly)...but either a FireWire (as with the original), or, more likely, the new dock-style connector with support for both FW and USB2.

[eSnow]

My other thought was that if it were to be much smaller than the mini it might be a winning design to put a USB 2.0 adaptor right on the player. Have it slide/fold in and out or something to make it compact, but yo ucould use it as a USB flash drive without carrying around any extra cables, etc. Would also be a distiguishing feature (no other player I've seen has a built in USB plug)

At least over here (Germany), USB sticks with player capabilities are selling like hot cakes. My wife bought herself one for work out which holds 128MB, is round and as small as a 2 EURO coin and only has a couple of buttons like play/pause, skip,and back. No display, sells for 70EUR ($100), USB interface integrated.

It does not replace her iPod, but works nicely as either a USB memory stick or a micro player.

[Wonder Boy]

I'm still holding out hope that this flash memory stuff is all for the iPhone. My answer to steve is: "No!" I don't want a dozen songs on my phone.Hob

12 acc files as ring tones would be perfect imho

[ASP272]

I bet it will be 1 GB at $149. I'm guessing that in comparison to the other 1 GB flash players out there. Still, it'll be a market killer for the competition. iPod's for everyone! :D

[ccuilla]

A quick scan of prices makes me ever wonder how anyone could think the iPod are overpriced (the two 1GB flash players I saw were for $249 and $229...and the several 512MB flash players were for $199, $179 and $139...all of the 256MB ones are $149).

Anyway...it looks like Apple will not come in under $149 for a 512MB device (8-hours of music). It'll be cool. They'll sell a ton. They'll bring in another tier of iPod owners. They'll own the rest of the market.

So maybe something like this:

(wishful thinking)
iPod micro (256MB) - $99
iPod micro (512MB) - $149
iPod micro (1GB) - $199

(more realistic thinking)
iPod micro (256MB) - $149
iPod micro (512MB) - $199

iPod mini (5GB) - $249

iPod (20GB) - $299
iPod (40GB) - $399

iPod photo (40GB) - $499
iPod photo (60GB) - $599

It seems more Apple's style to offer you something less and something more. In this case the something less would be the things that add cost to the unit (display, FM tuner) and therefore cut into their margin. The something more would things that don't cost them anything like style, fashion...and, most importantly, access to iTMS.

[Sun Baked]

A quick scan of prices makes me ever wonder how anyone could think the iPod are overpriced (the two 1GB flash players I saw were for $249 and $229...and the several 512MB flash players were for $199, $179 and $139...all of the 256MB ones are $149).There were quite a few of the 512MB units running instant rebates, sales prices, etc. right now to entice them to buy them instead of the 128/256MB units.

But Apple most likely won't bring out something everyone has, they hit the premium end of the market -- possibly with a how did they do that price.

So we can hope for a bit more flash memory.

[mrgreen4242]

I wonder what they would call a flash based iPod... flashPod isn't bad, but is longer than most of the nams they give their products. What about ePod to go with the eMac? Seems like the e- thing is a little played out, tho... the i- thing is starting to get old too, tho... imho. :)

[Yvan256]

I wonder what they would call a flash based iPod... flashPod isn't bad, but is longer than most of the nams they give their products. What about ePod to go with the eMac? Seems like the e- thing is a little played out, tho... the i- thing is starting to get old too, tho... imho. :)

Would only confuse people to name it anything else than "iPod micro". After all, the iPod mini is different, smaller size and smaller capacity. What's smaller than mini? Micro. If it's called anything else, I'll eat 100% wheat bread for a week.

...

What? I hate 100% wheat bread, it doesn't taste anything! (I'm used to oat bran bread).

And if I lose my bet, I can actually keep up my word. :D

[ccuilla]

Would only confuse people to name it anything else than "iPod micro". After all, the iPod mini is different, smaller size and smaller capacity. What's smaller than mini? Micro. If it's called anything else, I'll eat 100% wheat bread for a week.

...

What? I hate 100% wheat bread, it doesn't taste anything! (I'm used to oat bran bread).

And if I lose my bet, I can actually keep up my word. :D

I agree about the naming...anyone that thinks the word "flash" will make it anywhere near an Apple product doesn't know a) Apple, or b) consumers.

When will evryone get this...consumers don't give a crap about what technology is inside the thing! Period.

[djpedro]

My guess is that Apple is going to offer one flavor of this iPod, similar to how there is one flavor of the mini. Apple increases options upward, generally. Their more expensive models have more variants than do the less expensive ones.

I doubt apple will even wade into 256 megs. Steve Jobs has always said that the flash players were junk because you could only carry a few songs. There is no way, in my opinion, that they are going to eat their words and come up with a 256 or even 512 meg model, because then they are going to have to explain why for Apple something that holds things "in megs" is ok.
My guess: $149 model with 1GB capacity.
I just don't see them coming out with anything below that. When apple does something, they want it to be "the best, the smallest, the fastest etc."
1 GB is the minimum for apple to get into this.

Consider this: if they get one (or several suppliers) of flash ram and guarantee 5 million units, they can likely get the price down to a reasonable level.

If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :-)

[jadam]

Consider this: if they get one (or several suppliers) of flash ram and guarantee 5 million units, they can likely get the price down to a reasonable level.

If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think?

sounds reasonable.

[zelmo]

snip...If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :-)

I think the iPod micro will be 1GB. Possible that it will be 512MB, but 1GB sounds right. 2GB would be nice, but then it is too close in capacity to the mini. Yup, 1GB for $149-179 sounds like Apple. Love to see 1GB for $129 ($99 ain't happening unless it is 512MB).
They are going to up the capacity of the mini to 5GB, so don't expect a lower price there. That is not Apple's style, especially when the mini is selling like crazy at $249.

[croasmun]

The one thing that Jobs can present that keeps him from eating his hat regarding the miniscule capacity that the iPod micro and the "iPhone" will have is to demonstrate how smart lists will make this all useful. For example: the perfect smartlist for the iPhone (assuming capacity of 15 songs):

My Rating is greater than ***
Limit to 15 songs selected by least recently played
Live updating

This gives you the 15 high-rated songs that you haven't heard in the longest time on your phone whenever you sync it. (You'd just have to make sure that the phone syncs its "last played" data before grabbing the new list of songs)

It's perfect, really, and I can just hear Jobs at MacWorld "Now, how can I get the songs I want on my phone? This is where iTunes, everyone's favorite music jukebox program really shines. I could make a manual list of songs that I want on my phone... or I could come up here to the file menu, make a new Smart List..."

[Yvan256]

[...]

$99 1GB "micro"
$199 5GB mini
$299 20GB regular.
and up

That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :-)

I agree with all your post, including the prices (although I'm betting on 129$US for the 1GB iPod micro and 229$US for the 5GB iPod mini). Seems like a decent offering at decent prices. Steve did mention they wanted to lower their iPod prices.

If they really do release a 1GB iPod micro for 99$US, I hope they got a few millions ready to ship when they start selling it. If you thought 2004 was the iPod year, wait 'till 2005!

Unless they release that PowerBook G6... :D

[ccuilla]

The one thing that Jobs can present that keeps him from eating his hat regarding the miniscule capacity that the iPod micro and the "iPhone" will have is to demonstrate how smart lists will make this all useful. For example: the perfect smartlist for the iPhone (assuming capacity of 15 songs):

My Rating is greater than ***
Limit to 15 songs selected by least recently played
Live updating

This gives you the 15 high-rated songs that you haven't heard in the longest time on your phone whenever you sync it. (You'd just have to make sure that the phone syncs its "last played" data before grabbing the new list of songs)

It's perfect, really, and I can just hear Jobs at MacWorld "Now, how can I get the songs I want on my phone? This is where iTunes, everyone's favorite music jukebox program really shines. I could make a manual list of songs that I want on my phone... or I could come up here to the file menu, make a new Smart List..."

I think this is exactly right. Though the updating of smart playlists needs a tweek. As in...refresh this playlist whever I update my iPod. Smart playlists don't change the songs once they are created do they? Maybe I haven't created a "smart enough" one yet.

[Yvan256]

I think this is exactly right. Though the updating of smart playlists needs a tweek. As in...refresh this playlist whever I update my iPod. Smart playlists don't change the songs once they are created do they? Maybe I haven't created a "smart enough" one yet.

Smart playlists are exactly that: smart. They update whenever any data changes on any song in your library.

I do wonder how iTunes will sync more than one device though... (iTunes has a rating of 3 for a song, I listened to it on my iPod on the bus and re-rated it only 2, then later I listened to it on my phone and rated it 4. How does iTunes decides what's my new real rating? Last modified date?)

[ccuilla]

Smart playlists are exactly that: smart. They update whenever any data changes on any song in your library.

I do wonder how iTunes will sync more than one device though... (iTunes has a rating of 3 for a song, I listened to it on my iPod on the bus and re-rated it only 2, then later I listened to it on my phone and rated it 4. How does iTunes decides what's my new real rating? Last modified date?)

Last sync wins?

[shamino]

$65 for the entire Flash iPod, or just the flash components of the Flash iPod? If Apple can make it for only 65 bucks, even with a 50% we still will have our $100 digital music player from Apple.

If not, I am still guessing $149.
That $65 price is the wholesale export price - what ASUSTek is charging for the players in bulk. Now, you have to add on tariffs, excise taxes, trans-pacific shipping, repackaging (they're going to be sold in single-unit boxes,) at least one layer of distributor and some amount of profit margin before you get to a retail price.

IMO, you should expect it at a $150-200 price point.

[shamino]

4 GB = 1000 songs
2 GB = 500 songs
1 GB = 250 songs
512 MB = 125 songs
256 MB = 62 songs
128 MB = 31 songs
64 MB = 15 songs (one CD!)
32 MB = 8 songs (not even! Better drop the quality!)

You can see why Apple would never want to touch the bottom of the market. Most people buying a low-capacity player will be disappointed. Apple wants most of its users to actually USE the thing, I'm sure. They have a usability standard that other companies ignore to make a quick sale.
Unless it is expandable. I could see them selling a $100 model with 256M and an SD slot for expansion. This way, you can carry 60 songs or so, and if you want more, you can expand the capacity. If done properly, you should also be able to load songs onto multiple cards and hot-swap them in the player (much like how you'd change the CD on a CD player.) With 512M SD cards selling for $60-100 (according to BestBuy's web site), I think this is a solution that could work.

If the unit is not expandable, however, then you're right. Nothing less than 1G would be acceptable.

[shamino]

When they introduced the iPod, I think it could only play MP3s. And they stated the capacity with 128kbps CD-Quality MP3 songs.
No. When the iPod was first introduced, their capacity estimates were all based on a 160K bitrate. They concluded (correctly) than 128K MP3 just isn't good enough to be considered CD-quality.

This is why the original 5G iPod was advertised as having a 1000-song capacity and not a 1250-song capacity.

After AAC was introduced, then they changed their estimates to be based on a 128K bitrate.
They will officially introduce H.264 to the public (last time was for programmers). They will also introduce HE-AAC, and I'd bet they'll all "upgrade" the capacities of all iPods.
I would assume so. If they upgrade the codec, they will figure out what bitrate provides an equivalent quality to the (prior) 128K AAC standard, and they'll generate their estimates based on that rate.

[kenaustus]

That $65 price is the wholesale export price - what ASUSTek is charging for the players in bulk. Now, you have to add on tariffs, excise taxes, trans-pacific shipping, repackaging (they're going to be sold in single-unit boxes,) at least one layer of distributor and some amount of profit margin before you get to a retail price..

shamino is correct on the costs - the $65 is the FOB (free on board) price and will the FOB at the factory. Apple pays a lot on top of that. When you look at the final price you can work out what the total cost is by assuming a 28% to 30% gross margin to cover expenses like R&D, advertising, support costs, etc.

In terms of capacity, retail pricing of flash memory is not an indicator. Remember when the mini came out? People were buying them just for the HD. They would rip out the HD and throw away the rest ( :( ) and save around $200 over the retail price of the HD. Apple gets good pricing to say the least.

As for design, people want an iPod. It needs to look like an iPod and using a mini form factor (with different colors, or using plastic) is a good way for retaining the iPod look and reducing design costs. I don't expect anything radically different on the design side - you'll look at it and know it's an iPod, which is what the customers want.

My bet is 1 - 2 gigs for $129 - $149.

[ccuilla]

shamino is correct on the costs - the $65 is the FOB (free on board) price and will the FOB at the factory. Apple pays a lot on top of that. When you look at the final price you can work out what the total cost is by assuming a 28% to 30% gross margin to cover expenses like R&D, advertising, support costs, etc.

In terms of capacity, retail pricing of flash memory is not an indicator. Remember when the mini came out? People were buying them just for the HD. They would rip out the HD and throw away the rest ( :( ) and save around $200 over the retail price of the HD. Apple gets good pricing to say the least.

As for design, people want an iPod. It needs to look like an iPod and using a mini form factor (with different colors, or using plastic) is a good way for retaining the iPod look and reducing design costs. I don't expect anything radically different on the design side - you'll look at it and know it's an iPod, which is what the customers want.

My bet is 1 - 2 gigs for $129 - $149.


In that case, I'd predict 1GB iPod micro for $149. Good price-point. Gets closer to the "magical" $99.

[jadam]

so have any of you who keeping on saying "1gb ipod for $99 is impossible" looked at the recent prices of flash memory

http://www.newegg.com/app/viewproductdesc.asp?description=20-170-604&DEPA=1

$69 for a 1gb SD card, and the company is making a profit off of that. What makes you think apple couldnt come out with a 1gb flash based iPod for $99?

If anything though, this iPod better have an SD slot so I can upgrade the memory on it!

[zelmo]

so have any of you who keeping on saying "1gb ipod for $99 is impossible" looked at the recent prices of flash memory

http://www.newegg.com/app/viewproductdesc.asp?description=20-170-604&DEPA=1

$69 for a 1gb SD card, and the company is making a profit off of that. What makes you think apple couldnt come out with a 1gb flash based iPod for $99?

If anything though, this iPod better have an SD slot so I can upgrade the memory on it!

Oh, I don't think $99 is impossible. I just think it is not Apple. They charge a premium price for their products, and $99 is not a premium price. I think I'm being overly optimistic at $129, for that matter.

More opinions:
There will be no expansion slot of any kind on the iPod micro. Want more storage? Buy a mini or an iPod. This device is all about carrying a couple hours of music is a small form factor. Great for exercising and whatnot.
Not only will you be able to sync it up on your Mac/PC, but you will also be able to dl a different playlist from your iPod or mini. This will be a new feature in the mini, and the secret feature hinted about back when the 4G iPod came out.

[jettredmont]

I would imagine that the iPhone would require you to pick a special playlist.

But what happens today if you have too many songs in your iTunes library for your iPod? Does it ask you which playlists to leave off? Is there a way to not sync certain songs to the iPod?

Not sure what the behavior is currently is you try to put too much on your iPod (my iPod still has a running free disk space of around 5-9 GB after I've loaded my music plus the files from work I carry around with me ... haven't had to see the answer to that question yet!)

HOWEVER, if you have a smaller device, you can select which playlists to sync, or manually "uncheck" songs and select to only sync checked songs. For a multi-device setup, the prefered practice would be to sync only selected playlists for any "mini" or "micro" devices most likely (as the checkbox is a per-computer setting and the sync-these-playlists is a per-device setting, IIRC).

[shamino]

Remember when the mini came out? People were buying them just for the HD. They would rip out the HD and throw away the rest ( :( ) and save around $200 over the retail price of the HD.
... and then those customers found out that the drives are flaky and unreliable when used in non-iPod devices (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1023&message=7928007). Apparently, Apple hacked the firmware so that cameras and some computers will be unable to use it, even after reformatting.

Of course, with a flash-iPod, it is likely that the flash will consist of a chip soldered to the main board. It is unlikely that anybody dissecting an "iPod micro" will be able to remove something useful (like an SD card).
Apple gets good pricing to say the least.
When you call up Hitachi and say "I'll buy every 4G microdrive your factory is capable of producing", you can be certain of getting an incredible discount. :D
As for design, people want an iPod. It needs to look like an iPod and using a mini form factor (with different colors, or using plastic) is a good way for retaining the iPod look and reducing design costs. I don't expect anything radically different on the design side - you'll look at it and know it's an iPod, which is what the customers want.
iPodLounge has recently been running a concept image gallery (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/thumbnails.php?album=4) where readers have been submitting their own original artwork for what future iPods might look like. While some are pretty dumb, there are some good designs there as well. Like this (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=233) or this (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=118).

IMO, as long as you preserve the wheel interface and a UI/menu structure that's similar to current iPods, you can get away with changing almost everything else.

In the case of a flash device, once you no longer have a hard drive taking up most of the space, you can be more creative and go for more radical designs.

[Yvan256]

iPodLounge has recently been running a concept image gallery (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/thumbnails.php?album=4) where readers have been submitting their own original artwork for what future iPods might look like. While some are pretty dumb, there are some good designs there as well. Like this (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=233) or this (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=118).

IMO, as long as you preserve the wheel interface and a UI/menu structure that's similar to current iPods, you can get away with changing almost everything else.

In the case of a flash device, once you no longer have a hard drive taking up most of the space, you can be more creative and go for more radical designs.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean Apple will release a "moving parts" iPod. Sorry but those two designs would be too fragile.

Besides, the iPod and iPod mini look about the same. I really don't think Apple will "dilute" the iPod brand/image with something that looks too different. I'm guessing it'll still have the display on top, the control wheel at the bottom. Classic iPod shape.

This is more likely to be the iPod Flash (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=lastup&cat=-4&pos=0) (if it's not only an iPod mini with a Flash board instead of the 4GB/5GB HD, which would cut in design/production costs even more, to lower the price of both the iPod mini and iPod micro).

[Porcelina]

This is more likely to be the iPod Flash (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=lastup&cat=-4&pos=0) (if it's not only an iPod mini with a Flash board instead of the 4GB/5GB HD, which would cut in design/production costs even more, to lower the price of both the iPod mini and iPod micro).Definitely. How could they NOT release that. When a flash version emerges, that´s the way it should look..

[shamino]

Yeah, but that doesn't mean Apple will release a "moving parts" iPod. Sorry but those two designs would be too fragile.
Not necessarily. Cell phones have had hinged lids for quite a long time. Most are durable enough to survive the abuse most people put their phones through. And phones are usually made from plastic parts.
This is more likely to be the iPod Flash (http://gallery.ipodlounge.com/ipod/displayimage.php?album=lastup&cat=-4&pos=0).
Maybe. We'll just have to wait for the announcement.

[Yvan256]

Not necessarily. Cell phones have had hinged lids for quite a long time. Most are durable enough to survive the abuse most people put their phones through. And phones are usually made from plastic parts.

Granted, didn't think about the cellphones. But this argument aside, it would destroy the iPod image (vertical rectangle with a square LCD on top of a click wheel). I'm quite sure Apple will have the iPod micro looking like the one in my previous post.

We'll just have to wait for the announcement.

No! I can't wait! Someone has to break in, take pictures, post them and get sued! We want to see! :D

[Mindcrime]

Guys, just so you know, Apple Daily is the Hong Kong/Taiwan equivalent of the Mirror or the National Enquirer. I'd take the content of the article with a large grain of salt. Remember the bruhaha caused by Toshiba accidentally letting on about the 60 gb iPod? If this article is even remotely true, and this company is doing Flash iPods for Apple, then they probably aren't any longer for leaking the info. I don't buy it, given that Apple Daily is the biggest crapfest newspaper in SE Asia.

[Yvan256]

Guys, just so you know, Apple Daily is the Hong Kong/Taiwan equivalent of the Mirror or the National Enquirer. I'd take the content of the article with a large grain of salt. Remember the bruhaha caused by Toshiba accidentally letting on about the 60 gb iPod? If this article is even remotely true, and this company is doing Flash iPods for Apple, then they probably aren't any longer for leaking the info. I don't buy it, given that Apple Daily is the biggest crapfest newspaper in SE Asia.

You kind of killed the thread there, Mindcrime. :D