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MacRumors
Mar 10, 2005, 01:48 PM
The Blu-ray Disc Association announced today (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2005/mar/10blu-ray.html) that Apple has become a member of the consortium's Board of Directors.

“Apple is pleased to join the Blu-ray Disc Association board as part of our efforts to drive consumer adoption of HD,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Consumers are already creating stunning HD content with Apple’s leading video editing applications like iMovie HD and are anxiously awaiting a way to burn their own high def DVDs.”

Blu-ray is a next-generation optical disc format being developed for High Definition video and high-capacity software applications. A Blu-ray disc will be able to hold up to 50GB of data (double layer).

During the MacWorld Expo SF Keynote speech (http://www.macrumors.com/events/mwsf2005.html) Steve Jobs described 2005 as "the year of High Definition Video" and introduced HD video support into iMovie and Final Cut Express. Sony also demonstrated a HD Video camera at the keynote speech. The missing link has been the consumer's ability to export HD video off their Mac. It appears Blu-ray will be the technology and we can expect iDVD and burning support in the future.

jimsowden
Mar 10, 2005, 01:51 PM
Where does the debate stand on HD-DVD vs Blue-ray? I did a project on it, and it looked like there was no one pulling ahead, this was only a few months ago. I would love to see some updates.

Gherkin
Mar 10, 2005, 01:52 PM
So, how soon until we see a Blu-Ray drive on a Mac?

JesterJJZ
Mar 10, 2005, 01:52 PM
I'm just glad they went with BluRay over HDDVD.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 01:52 PM
Apple don't be stupid.

Support both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Just get political on us!

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 01:53 PM
I'm just glad they went with BluRay over HDDVD.


Why?

Chaszmyr
Mar 10, 2005, 01:55 PM
Glad to see Apple on board with Blu Ray rather than HD DVD. I've been hoping for Blu Ray from the start.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 01:58 PM
But HD-DVD has the dreamteam of studios.

Paramount- Back to the Future. Archive (http://www.paramount.com/motionpictures/previous_releases.htm)
Universal-
New Line -Lord of the Rings. Nuff said. Archive (http://www.newline.com/movies/archive.shtml)
Warner Brothers- The Matrix series

They've already announced 89 titles! Where's Blu-Ray?

brap
Mar 10, 2005, 01:59 PM
Glad to see Apple on board with Blu Ray rather than HD DVD. I've been hoping for Blu Ray from the start.I don't get it, surely it's best to have all bases covered. But then, Apple did do the dirty against DVD+R, so *shrug*.

We're all used to our computers being highly proprietary anyway, I guess. If it brings in cash and innovation... blech, whatever. I'm always a 'late adopter' anyway, when it comes to this kinda stuff.

MacNut
Mar 10, 2005, 02:00 PM
So, how soon until we see a Blu-Ray drive on a Mac?I don't think anyone has it yet, As far as I know its still in development.

JesterJJZ
Mar 10, 2005, 02:00 PM
Why?

Because it will help with the format war. Who want 2 formats? 1 needs to go. With BluRay alrady having the most support behind it, it makes it that much better with Apple on board.

Zaty
Mar 10, 2005, 02:03 PM
But HD-DVD has the dreamteam of studios.

Paramount-
Universal-
New Line
Warner Brothers-

They've already announced 89 titles! Where's Blu-Ray?

Right, but the majority of the hardware industrie is in the Blu-Ray camp. So the studios might run into a problem there.

MacNut
Mar 10, 2005, 02:03 PM
What one has better quality and capacity Blu-ray or HD-DVD?

Dagless
Mar 10, 2005, 02:06 PM
sweet jesus. ive just been on http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/dvd-comp2.htm looking up all this blue-ray and HD DVD stuff... and i really have to say that Blue Ray discs look foul. more than foul, distgusting, ugly, crap...

how the hell are they going to fit Blue Ray drives into iBooks and Powerbooks? looks an extra 4" required.

my wild reckoning... HD DVD seems like the way to go. its smaller and apparently cheaper. joe public usually goes for that kind of stuff.

jesuscandle
Mar 10, 2005, 02:09 PM
Don't forget that HD-DVD is simply inferior to Blue-Ray.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2110495/

Here's the money quote:

Blu-ray disks have a coating that's one-sixth the thickness of the outside layer of a DVD or an HD-DVD. Blu-ray's data layers are thus closer to the surface, allowing the laser in a Blu-ray player to read data that's encoded with smaller markings. Since the markings are smaller, more of them—and, consequently, more data—can be packed onto a single layer. Sony also expects to boost the number of data layers from two to four by 2007 and ultimately to eight. Despite all the noise from Sony, Toshiba has been conspicuously quiet about adding more layers to HD-DVDs down the road. Summary: Blu-ray disks can store more data on each layer and will likely have more layers of data than HD-DVDs.

While HD-DVD backers tout 30-gigabyte, dual-layer disks, Sony already has a 50-gig, dual-layer model and has an eight-layer, 200-gig superdisk in development. So, why do so many Hollywood studios want their HD-DVD? Probably because they're a whole lot cheaper to manufacture. Earlier this year, some Taiwanese disk makers told PC World that prerecorded HD-DVDs will be cheaper to churn out than Blu-ray disks. Since HD-DVDs have the same size layers as today's disks, existing DVD factories can start churning out HD-DVDs without much retooling. But Blu-ray disks, with their thicker data layers, won't be so easy to make. New, expensive assembly lines will have to be built—that's the kind of expense that cuts down profit margins.

homeshire
Mar 10, 2005, 02:10 PM
my only concern at this point is backward compatibility. i'll be damned if i'll start my collection all over again. if i'm not mistaken, one of these formats allows for backward compatibility, and the other does not. can someone speak to this?

T.Rex
Mar 10, 2005, 02:10 PM
sweet jesus. ive just been on http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/dvd-comp2.htm looking up all this blue-ray and HD DVD stuff... and i really have to say that Blue Ray discs look foul. more than foul, distgusting, ugly, crap...

how the hell are they going to fit Blue Ray drives into iBooks and Powerbooks? looks an extra 4" required.

my wild reckoning... HD DVD seems like the way to go. its smaller and apparently cheaper. joe public usually goes for that kind of stuff.

That link is based on old information. Original prototypes for Blu-ray required the disk be in a caddy because it was easily scratched. They've solved this now and will not require a caddy when released.

arn
Mar 10, 2005, 02:12 PM
sweet jesus. ive just been on http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/dvd-comp2.htm looking up all this blue-ray and HD DVD stuff... and i really have to say that Blue Ray discs look foul. more than foul, distgusting, ugly, crap...

how the hell are they going to fit Blue Ray drives into iBooks and Powerbooks? looks an extra 4" required.

my wild reckoning... HD DVD seems like the way to go. its smaller and apparently cheaper. joe public usually goes for that kind of stuff.

"Even when the new video standard begins to replace current technologies, consumers won't have to throw away their DVDs, but they will need to invest in a new player. The industry is planning to market backward-compatible drives with both blue and red lasers, which will be able to play traditional DVDs and CDs as well as Blu-ray discs."

So I don't think the form factor is going to be different.

JackSYi
Mar 10, 2005, 02:12 PM
The Blu-Ray CD can theoretically hold 50GB of data vs. the 30 GB on the HD-DVD. The companies behind the Blu-Ray is also significant, they include: Dell Inc.; Hewlett Packard Company; Hitachi, Ltd.; LG Electronics Inc.; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.; Panasonic (Matsushita Electric); Pioneer Corp.; Royal Philips Electronics; Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.; Sharp Corp.; Sony Corp.; TDK Corp.; Thomson; Twentieth Century Fox; and Walt Disney Pictures and Television.

I am rooting for Blu-Ray because of its capacity, just think of the possibilities; also HD formats are going to require tons of space.

T.Rex
Mar 10, 2005, 02:13 PM
But HD-DVD has the dreamteam of studios.

Paramount-
Universal-
New Line
Warner Brothers-

They've already announced 89 titles! Where's Blu-Ray?

Ya, but from what I understand, those aren't exclusive deals. Basically they've just said they will support the format - this doesn't mean they can't/won't support blu-ray as well and let the market decide which wins.

JackSYi
Mar 10, 2005, 02:14 PM
"Even when the new video standard begins to replace current technologies, consumers won't have to throw away their DVDs, but they will need to invest in a new player. The industry is planning to market backward-compatible drives with both blue and red lasers, which will be able to play traditional DVDs and CDs as well as Blu-ray discs."

So I don't think the form factor is going to be different.


Exactly, not going to be an issue. Both formats are backwards compatible with current DVDs.

http://news.com.com/Apple+sides+with+Blu-ray+Disc+in+format+war/2100-1047_3-5608776.html?part=rss&tag=5608819&subj=news

aswitcher
Mar 10, 2005, 02:18 PM
So PS3 in 2006...Apple PM with optional BluRay DVD at the same time...

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 02:19 PM
Don't forget that HD-DVD is simply inferior to Blue-Ray.

LOL. The article is trying to sell me on Vapor? Blu Ray hasn't even announced titles and you're talking about 200GB discs. Ask yourself this. If BR is superior then why did they require a Caddy in the beginning when HD-DVD never did? The person that wrote that article doesn't know ****.

Ya, but from what I understand, those aren't exclusive deals. Basically they've just said they will support the format - this doesn't mean they can't/won't support blu-ray as well and let the market decide which wins.

Yes and vice versa. But note that the HD-DVD camp has already announce the first batch of 89 titles. Thus the speculation that HD-DVD production will be easier and cheaper seems to carry weight. Blu-Ray has a nice size advantage that only affects % 5 of movies being made(ie over 132 minutes) thus both formats handle the remaining %95 with one disc. The extra space is superfluous for movie distribution. Computer use is another story.

Neither company will win. This is another war that is not winnable.

Bob Dobbs
Mar 10, 2005, 02:19 PM
My guess is that the format the the PORN producers pic will win. I'll go further and guess that porno guys will go for the HD-DVD because it is cheaper, no retooling (lol), and they only have to fill 30gig, not 50 - that extra 20 gig is almost enough to make (and sell) another film.

my 2cents

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 02:22 PM
I support HD DVD. The name certainly holds more traction with consumers.

MacNut
Mar 10, 2005, 02:24 PM
how the hell are they going to fit Blue Ray drives into iBooks and Powerbooks? looks an extra 4" required.They probably wont be in Powerbooks or iBooks for a while until they can get the drives slim enough. I'd also imagine that it would take more processing power to encode HD then what the current notebooks can supply.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 02:25 PM
My guess is that the format the the PORN producers pic will win. I'll go further and guess that porno guys will go for the HD-DVD because it is cheaper, no retooling (lol), and they only have to fill 30gig, not 50 - that extra 20 gig is almost enough to make (and sell) another film.

my 2cents

Very salient point. I've seen

http://storage.itworld.com/4653/050110adulthd/page_1.html

Points out that the Porn industry is watching as well. I think you'll find them go HD-DVD because of costs. They really don't need the extra space of Blu-Ray IMO.

Lord Blackadder
Mar 10, 2005, 02:28 PM
My guess is that the format the the PORN producers pic will win. I'll go further and guess that porno guys will go for the HD-DVD because it is cheaper, no retooling (lol), and they only have to fill 30gig, not 50 - that extra 20 gig is almost enough to make (and sell) another film.

my 2cents

Bad example - the porn industry heartily embraced Betamax back in the day.

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 02:33 PM
I've already seen some porn videos shot with those new Sony HDV cameras and all I can say is, mother o' mighty. HD is gonna catch on big time. Whichever format wins in the end, it's coming.

I believe 30GB or 50GB capacities do not matter much, as most of the advances will come by way of video compression technique. You can already fit 2 hours of HD material on a standard DVD by using WMV9 or h.264 codecs.

It may be split up with computer users embracing blu-ray, while movie distribution will be sent by way of HD DVD.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 02:33 PM
Bad example - the porn industry heartily embraced Betamax back in the day.

No you have this wrong. Sony did NOT want Porn on Beta. Thus Porn went VHS and the rest is history.

plastree
Mar 10, 2005, 02:49 PM
I wonder what the likelihood of players and burners supporting both formats will be. Probably not an affordable prospect. I hope this doesn't become another DVD-A vs SACD tragedy. Neither format won in the end.

nagromme
Mar 10, 2005, 02:56 PM
Neither one is big yet, so I don't see how it can have loyalists and forum rivalries yet :D

I prefer HD-DVD because the name is simpler.

I prefer Blu-Ray because it holds more, has more promise for the future, and isn't "one more acronym!"

So I was hoping Apple would go with Blu-Ray. I'm hoping the tide moves that way in general--and it's not too late to end up with ONE standard, since neither has CONSUMER momentum yet.

But if BOTH formats stay important, that's not the end of the world: Apple will offer the HD-DVD choice BTO when and if that becomes necessary. If it never does, anyone married to HD-DVD can get an external.

I certainly don't understand criticizing Blu-Ray just because early protoypes USED to be bulkier than HD-DVD. They're not anymore. Maybe the Blue-Ray folks turned to something more important in the beginning, like capacity! :)

Kagetenshi
Mar 10, 2005, 02:59 PM
Apple don't be stupid.

Support both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Just get political on us!

On the contrary, they should pick a side. The faster the other format dies off, the better. Betamax was superior to VHS, but Betamax and VHS existing at the same time would have been worst of all.

If BR is superior then why did they require a Caddy in the beginning when HD-DVD never did?

Spoken like someone who doesn't remember when CDs used caddies…

~J

im_noahselby
Mar 10, 2005, 03:05 PM
Blu-Ray or HD-DVD: Which one was Sony pushing for? I cant remember?

Noah

Swift
Mar 10, 2005, 03:06 PM
But HD-DVD has the dreamteam of studios.

Paramount- Back to the Future. Archive (http://www.paramount.com/motionpictures/previous_releases.htm)
Universal-
New Line -Lord of the Rings. Nuff said. Archive (http://www.newline.com/movies/archive.shtml)
Warner Brothers- The Matrix series

They've already announced 89 titles! Where's Blu-Ray?

So, how many people have the HD drives? It's supposedly backwards compatible, but only in a half-assed way.

HDDVD is the loser technically. Some want it because they could start quickly with the current capital investment for manufacturing, but HDDVD can't hold as much and can't expand as much. This would mean that Blu-Ray can have the same amount of content (commentaries, etc.) as present DVDs have. And more. HDDVD is a dead end.

numediaman
Mar 10, 2005, 03:06 PM
Saying that capacity is not important reminds me of the guy who said that the floppy would never go away -- afterall, who writes files bigger than 50k anyway?

HD video is a hog -- and high bitrate HD is a monster hog. Capacity is important.

(This isn't a vote for Blu-Ray, just an observation.)

Swift
Mar 10, 2005, 03:16 PM
But note that the HD-DVD camp has already announce(d) the first batch of 89 titles. Thus the speculation that HD-DVD production will be easier and cheaper seems to carry weight. Blu-Ray has a nice size advantage that only affects % 5 of movies being made(ie over 132 minutes) thus both formats handle the remaining %95 with one disc. The extra space is superfluous for movie distribution. Computer use is another story.

Thank God the world is not run by marketers. Not yet, at least.

Hey, one of the big selling points for DVDs is that they have interviews with the cast, "Making of..." documentaries, and the like. They all go beyond 132 minutes, and it makes a difference in sales.

It's very convenient for the studios, but who cares about them?

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 03:20 PM
HDDVD is the loser technically. Some want it because they could start quickly with the current capital investment for manufacturing, but HDDVD can't hold as much and can't expand as much. This would mean that Blu-Ray can have the same amount of content (commentaries, etc.) as present DVDs have. And more. HDDVD is a dead end.

HD-DVD only loses to Blu-Ray in total capacity. That capacity means nothing to Hollywood where %95 of their product works on both formats. Try as hard as you can people but for prerecorded content the 20GB of additional space are useless.

HD video is a hog -- and high bitrate HD is a monster hog. Capacity is important.

MPEG2 HD broadcasts are around 19Mbps throughput. Thus an hour costs us 8.5GB per hour. HD-DVD is barely sufficient here and would require Dual Layer discs to be comfortable.

VC-1/AVC codecs can deliver equivalent quality at 12Mbps or less. Thus an hour of HD video costs us 5.4GB easily fitting on both formats single layer discs with extras.

Blu-Ray's capacity only really comes into play for computer storage needs.


Does anyone want to give a "real" reason for Blu-Rays superiority other than the very tired "it has more capacity" ?


It's very convenient for the studios, but who cares about them?


No studio support = death people. Blu-Ray can be a consumer backup format only and that market isn't exactly that hot for sales.

cliffjumper68
Mar 10, 2005, 03:21 PM
With the demand for HD video it will not be long before a standard is reached. It may be the case that the movie industry would prefer to use a format that is not supported on most personal computers as a deterent to piracy. I am looking forward to my recordings looking as good as my HD satellite programs.

JesterJJZ
Mar 10, 2005, 03:21 PM
BluRay already has plans to go Caddy-less. They will be using that new coating technology that was recently invented.

Bob Dobbs
Mar 10, 2005, 03:25 PM
Bad example - the porn industry heartily embraced Betamax back in the day.

actually... Sony would not let porn to be released on beta. JVC did on VHS.

got that from a Cnet story, but I remember it that way.

ironfistphil
Mar 10, 2005, 03:26 PM
Does anyone want to give a "real" reason for Blu-Rays superiority other than the very tired "it has more capacity" ?

Cause it's the only format for PS3 which most likely will have over 100 million owners at the end of it's cycle, plus be the cheapest Blu-Ray player around.

I'm new too, hehe, just got a mini

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 03:26 PM
BluRay already has plans to go Caddy-less. They will be using that new coating technology that was recently invented.

Yes but imagine the extra cost of using that coating versus the lack of the need for the coating for HD-DVD.

The costs of going Blu-Ray seem to be mounting.

1. You can't use todays modern DVD-9 production equipment.
2. There is extra cost and process to apply the TDK coating

Remember people when studios ink production deals they deal down the the half penny. If Blu-Ray is even a penny over the costs of HD-DVD it could cause a studio to balk at support.

Dell, HP, Apple and many of the computer companies don't have to front these costs but studios do and thus will be watching the pricing of the formats.

Say what you want but 89 titles announced by 3 studios is a bird in the hand right now compared to the "promises" of Blu-Ray(cheaper production costs and future 4 layer tech)

HD-DVD give me what I want right now and doesn't make too many promises for the future.

Now someone remind me again. Who's superior?

virividox
Mar 10, 2005, 03:27 PM
im no expert, but i think apple should have waited it out instead of delcaring who to support

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 03:30 PM
Cause it's the only format for PS3 which most likely will have over 100 million owners at the end of it's cycle, plus be the cheapest Blu-Ray player around.

I'm new too, hehe, just got a mini


What if Microsoft, who's announced Longhorn support for HD-DVD, decides to use HD-DVD drives for the Xbox 2?

For the record I'm a supporter of both technologies. I realize that I will have to own both but I grow weary of the "Blu-Ray is better because it holds more data" while that's great for storing my own data it means squat for studios.

pubwvj
Mar 10, 2005, 03:31 PM
This is irrelevant. For data storage harddrives are faster and cheaper. Either HD-DVD or BluRay will be big enough for movies. Backward compatibility is far more important.

All I care is that Apple does _NOT_ do another DVD-RAM disaster by picking the losing horse. I know I will not buy a machine with either HD-DVD or BluRay until this whole issue of compatibility and standardization is done. At which point it will become irrelevant once again as they bring out a new standard.

ironfistphil
Mar 10, 2005, 03:32 PM
I don't know, Apple has a history of being fully behind products or technology before they are universally adopted, or droping products long before anyone else does. (Why the smurf are there still floppies?)

Course there are some thing they need to star getting on the ball about, PCI-Express

Course a wet dream of mine is the memory intterconnects of PS3 making it into a mac at some pointt, I'm no semiconducer noob even but the bandwidth ps3 seems to have between components is insane.

ironfistphil
Mar 10, 2005, 03:35 PM
What if Microsoft, who's announced Longhorn support for HD-DVD, decides to use HD-DVD drives for the Xbox 2?

For the record I'm a supporter of both technologies. I realize that I will have to own both but I grow weary of the "Blu-Ray is better because it holds more data" while that's great for storing my own data it means squat for studios.

It's all about installed base

100 million plus is quite a bit more than what, 30 million

There are 100 million ps2 owner who will PROB get a PS3, and will PROB buy Blu-Ray movvies that can play on it.

Sure there are 89 title ffor HD-DVD (Uh that's supposed to be alot) but people forget Sony itself has access to a HUGE library I guarentee will all be Blu-Ray releases.

Burning a iDVD and playing it on your PS3 does not appeal to anyone?

wdlove
Mar 10, 2005, 03:35 PM
If Blue-ray is truly superior then Apple is just being prudent. Probably will to smart to get on board early.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 03:45 PM
Sure there are 89 title ffor HD-DVD (Uh that's supposed to be alot) but people forget Sony itself has access to a HUGE library I guarentee will all be Blu-Ray releases.

Man is this all you have?

89 titles vs NONE for Blu-Ray.

Lends credence to the fact that Blu-Ray is going to be too expensive. Where are the plant manufactures getting behind Blu-Ray. Yeah i'm sure they want to retool their lines for a new format that may not survive. At least with HD-DVD they can press DVD-9 discs should HD-DVD fail.

Remember Apple at one time was flogging DVD-RAM and that went nowhere. So we cannot trust Apple to pick the best formats.

Blu-Ray has Sony Pictures/Columbia and MGM definitely in the camp. Everything else is tenuous.

HD-DVD has Paramoun, WB, Universal and New Line. And they haven't even brought out the BIG movies like LotR.

I'd say the odds are 60/40 HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.

Hodapp
Mar 10, 2005, 03:50 PM
Yes but imagine the extra cost of using that coating versus the lack of the need for the coating for HD-DVD.

The costs of going Blu-Ray seem to be mounting.

Ahh it wouldn't be MacRumors without completely baseless overboard speculation.

The design of the Blu-ray discs saves on manufacturing costs. Traditional DVDs are built by injection molding the two 0.6-mm discs between which the recording layer is sandwiched. The process must be done very carefully to prevent birefringence.

1. The two discs are molded.
2. The recording layer is added to one of the discs.
3. The two discs are glued together.

Blu-ray discs only do the injection-molding process on a single 1.1-mm disc, which reduces cost. That savings balances out the cost of adding the protective layer, so the end price is no more than the price of a regular DVD.

Please do some research before making yourself look like an ass in the future. :rolleyes:

Arcady
Mar 10, 2005, 03:51 PM
Paramount- Back to the Future

Back to the Future is a Universal title.

garotemonkey
Mar 10, 2005, 03:52 PM
Yes but imagine the extra cost of using that coating versus the lack of the need for the coating for HD-DVD.

The costs of going Blu-Ray seem to be mounting.

1. You can't use todays modern DVD-9 production equipment.
2. There is extra cost and process to apply the TDK coating
(etc)

Now someone remind me again. Who's superior?
Get your facts straight before you open your mouth.

From http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/blu-ray3.htm :

The design of the Blu-ray discs saves on manufacturing costs. Traditional DVDs are built by injection molding the two 0.6-mm discs between which the recording layer is sandwiched. The process must be done very carefully to prevent birefringence.

-The two discs are molded.
-The recording layer is added to one of the discs.
-The two discs are glued together.

Blu-ray discs only do the injection-molding process on a single 1.1-mm disc, which reduces cost. That savings balances out the cost of adding the protective layer, so the end price is no more than the price of a regular DVD.

ironfistphil
Mar 10, 2005, 03:54 PM
Why would you want only a little bump in storage?

I'd like each special edition LoTR on one Disc thank you.

Ever consider Sony is not going to announce companies to titles on the way to Blu-Ray until you know, they annouce players that can play the movies? Like oh, PS3 at E3, I'm sure there will be movie announcements there.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 04:04 PM
Ahh it wouldn't be MacRumors without completely baseless overboard speculation.

Is this supposed to be a rebuttal?

Please do some research before making yourself look like an ass in the future

Again Sony has given us promises that Blu-Ray is going to be cheap but they offer no proof nor have they mentioned any pricing. Open your eyes...HD-DVD has 89 announced titles while Sony sits on its hands and spews out conjecture about Blu-Ray being affordable. Their actions are speaking far louder than their words.

Back to the Future is a Universal title.

Thank you.

Get your facts straight before you open your mouth.

So tell me, how many discs has www.howstuffworks.com produced? That's right NONE. Show me ONE production plant that isn't owned by Sony saying the same thing. You all are lemmings. Sony has admitted to NOTHING. No pricing or delivery dates no movie title announcements yet many of you cling to this fantasy that they don't have serious issues beginning to surface.

nagromme
Mar 10, 2005, 04:05 PM
BTW, optical disks aren't just for movies. I've heard of people installing software from them, and even backing up data onto them ;)

So capacity is important for far more than just minutes of video.

Still, I do hope Apple hires all the people here who have researched the technical details of Blu-Ray better than Apple did ;)

And I'm afraid 89 titles isn't consumer momentum. It's simply to early for it to be that simple. A format with 89 titles isn't worth most shoppers committing to any more than one with zero. Wait until there are enough titles to matter--at which time there will be plenty of titles in both formats.

abrooks
Mar 10, 2005, 04:06 PM
Man is this all you have?

89 titles vs NONE for Blu-Ray.

Lends credence to the fact that Blu-Ray is going to be too expensive. Where are the plant manufactures getting behind Blu-Ray. Yeah i'm sure they want to retool their lines for a new format that may not survive. At least with HD-DVD they can press DVD-9 discs should HD-DVD fail.

Remember Apple at one time was flogging DVD-RAM and that went nowhere. So we cannot trust Apple to pick the best formats.

Blu-Ray has Sony Pictures/Columbia and MGM definitely in the camp. Everything else is tenuous.

HD-DVD has Paramoun, WB, Universal and New Line. And they haven't even brought out the BIG movies like LotR.

I'd say the odds are 60/40 HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.

Hold on there what are these studios going to do, put a film that fits in VHS and DVD onto a disc that is much larger in capacity, what a waste of a damn disc, unless they film them again in HD or something, who knows.

Also I'd like to point out that in my opinion a format won't make it because Film studios have announced a very small amount of titles, that means nothing to me, big big companies including Apple have support for Blu-Ray, looks like HD-DVD is on its way out, you better stock up on those discs you love so much.

daveL
Mar 10, 2005, 04:14 PM
Hold on there what are these studios going to do, put a film that fits in VHS and DVD onto a disc that is much larger in capacity, what a waste of a damn disc, unless they film them again in HD or something, who knows.

Also I'd like to point out that in my opinion a format won't make it because Film studios have announced a very small amount of titles, that means nothing to me, big big companies including Apple have support for Blu-Ray, looks like HD-DVD is on its way out, you better stock up on those discs you love so much.
Well, *film* doesn't come in SD vs HD, in comes in 16mm, 35mm, 70mm ... Film resolution is much higher than current SD and HD TV resolutions. The studios will remaster the original film for HD DVD resolutions; they don't have to refilm anything.

radio893fm
Mar 10, 2005, 04:19 PM
Just my feeling: whoever/whichever Sony chooses will be the winner... and no, it won't happen the same beta/vhs deal... times are different

lordmac
Mar 10, 2005, 04:19 PM
I think apple has been supporting this secretly for a while now because not only did they announced they were backing it they were also immediately put on the main board of companies backing it so. Engadget.com puts it better then me:
Leave it to Apple never to do anything half-assed—not only did they decide to get on the Blu-ray bandwagon and join the ranks of Blu-ray Association, but they found themselves immediately sitting down on the main board. Yet another fat nail in the coffin of HD-DVD; not too shabby for a company that only sells between 2 and 5% of computers, right? Still, we wonder how they’ll feel about now about being a member of a Sony standards group, and having to support Microsoft’s WMV HD (aka VC-1) codec in addition the standard MPEG-4 H.264. But it should all be worth it for them, to sit alongside such illustrious board member names as Dell (think they’ll shoot spitwads at each other?), HP, Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Thomson (RCA), Fox, and Disney. Ahem. Welcome to the club.


http://engadget.com/entry/1234000327035372/
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050310/sfth060_3.html

Also Disney which churns out a crap-load of dvd's is backing Blu-ray, Also Fox is too so the means Starwars will be on Blu-Ray yay. :D

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 04:23 PM
89 films doesn't sound like much. But it's a start that Blu-Ray hasn't had despite numerous showings of the hardware for the last two years.

The whole battle has been drawn along the lines of.

Codecs - initially Sony was only going to support MPEG2. Now they've added VC-1 and AVC.

Production Costs - Insiders in the industry new right away that Blu-Ray was going to be more expensive than DVD production. HD-DVD was specifically designed to build upon the DVD but Sony has eschewed this(primarily because WB gets more patent money from the DVD spec than they do) for a new format. Thus Sony has said "we will break from tradition and hopefully others will share the cost. HD-DVD gives me a format that meets the needs of movie distribution and keeps costs down so that I as a consumer may save.

Both formats will survive but those that keep claiming that Blu-Ray is superior do so from one vantage point or a total lack of understanding about the "behind the scenes" issues.

I'm not an insider but I'm into video production and thus I read what some of the insiders are saying and it's obvious that Blu-Ray has to deal with the cost issues before they start signing contracts.

Bob Dobbs
Mar 10, 2005, 04:23 PM
I think apple has been supporting this secretly for a while now because not only did they announced they were backing it they were also immediately put on the main board of companies backing it so. Engadget.com puts it better then me:


http://engadget.com/entry/1234000327035372/
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050310/sfth060_3.html

Also Disney which churns out a crap-load of dvd's is backing Blu-ray, Also Fox is too so the means Starwars will be on Blu-Ray yay. :D

Show me where it says FOX is on board with either format... i thought they still had not decided.

nagromme
Mar 10, 2005, 04:25 PM
FYI, lots of info here:
http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/

I stand corrected... HD-DVD does NOT have a simpler name than Blu-Ray discs... they're called BD's :)

BD-ROM - read-only format for software, games and movie distribution.
BD-R - recordable format for HDTV recording and PC data storage.
BD-RE - rewritable format for HDTV recording and PC data storage.

(I hope Apple doesn't use the term "BluperDrive" though.)

FoxyKaye
Mar 10, 2005, 04:26 PM
VHS! Betamax!

Blu-Ray! HD-DVD!

Tastes Great! Less Filling!

I'd be happy if Apple supported the existing dual layer plain old DVD drives already on the market. :mad:

garotemonkey
Mar 10, 2005, 04:27 PM
Man is this all you have?

89 titles vs NONE for Blu-Ray.

(etc)

Blu-Ray has Sony Pictures/Columbia and MGM definitely in the camp. Everything else is tenuous.

HD-DVD has Paramoun, WB, Universal and New Line. And they haven't even brought out the BIG movies like LotR.

I'd say the odds are 60/40 HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.
"Everything else is tenuous?" Quite a larf.

Blu-ray is backed by Apple, with the Mac market. Also backed by Dell and HP, the two largest PC vendors in the world. Sony will also use it in their PCs, as well as in the PlayStation 3, and will be releasing their movies on it.

Blu-ray is also backed by MGM and Disney (including Buena Vista Home Entertainment and Miramax). Bandy around your '89 titles!' statistic all you like - then consider the entire Disney archive of films, animated and otherwise. Clearly, a per-title count is a pretty meaningless statistic.

Furthermore, about your 'bringing out the big titles like LotR':
Straight from Vic Harasimow's mouth:
"There have been announcements from three or four major Hollywood studios to say that they will plan to launch about 90 movie titles in HD-DVD within 2005. However, we know this to be a non exclusive deal... They are free to release on any format."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/4216291.stm

Blu-ray burners have been demonstrated at trade shows by: Hitachi, JVC, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Zenith.

http://www.blu-ray.com/recorders/

Also, Microsoft will NOT be using HD-DVD in the Xbox2, they will be using a standard 12x DVD drive and DVD-9s. They will be using the VC-1 codec for HD content for cut scenes, but won't be able to playback HD movies.

Here's an interesting note: Because of the unique layer configuration, you can manufacture a Blu-ray disc with a complete dual-layer DVD contained in the same disc.
http://www.avnonline.com/index.php?Primary_Navigation=Web_Exclusive_News&Action=Print_Article&Content_ID=210651
How's that for backwards compatibility?

My two cents:

Neither of these will catch on in the movie market, simply because regular DVD quality is more than good enough for a standard television. There's no reason for people to buy their collections all over again - DVD already gave them commentaries, cut scenes, alternate angles, etc. This so-called format war will languish for years like an underground coal fire, except Blu-ray will become the standard for computer data storage, and that's all we care about anyway. In a few years all our computers will be able to play CDs, DVDs, HD-DVDs, and Blu-ray interchangeably.

PS: I suspect nuckinfutz is trolling. Oh well, I bit.

XForge
Mar 10, 2005, 04:28 PM
WAANNNNNT.

4GB per disc is NOT enough space for all the data I have to keep indexed. 'Course, if R9 (dual layer) is any indication, it'll be 20 years before Blu-Ray media is cheap enough to actually use.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 04:29 PM
Just my feeling: whoever/whichever Sony chooses will be the winner... and no, it won't happen the same beta/vhs deal... times are different

Sony?

The same company that just had a massive reorg of their executive staff which includes putting an American in the top slot and demoting the guy that delivered the Playstation? The same company that failed to get Beta entrenched as a consumer format? The same company that bungled their lead in Walkmans or gave us useless formats like MicroMV or Digital8? The same company that has allowed SACD to stagnate?

I'm waiting to be impressed with Sony.

They haven't played well with their peers and quite honestly their peers have caught up and surpassed them in many areas. I want Sony to do well but they must lose the arrogance that got them in this position.

HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray is going to make it actually "cheaper" for consumers. I expect the war to cause a price errosion that will save us money. Eventually I expect Universal players to be developed when component costs come down.

joekun
Mar 10, 2005, 04:33 PM
But note that the HD-DVD camp has already announce the first batch of 89 titles. Thus the speculation that HD-DVD production will be easier and cheaper seems to carry weight.

Or maybe it's just that HD-DVD is coming out around 6 months sooner than blu-ray in the U.S. I'm sure at launch there will be plenty of blu-ray titles available from Columbia, MGM, and Disney, perhaps others as well. The deals may be non-exclusive, but I can pretty much guarantee that all Columbia and MGM (Sony subsidiaries) titles will be Blu-ray only unless blu-ray loses the format war, which I don't think will happen.

Blu-Ray has a nice size advantage that only affects % 5 of movies being made(ie over 132 minutes) thus both formats handle the remaining %95 with one disc. The extra space is superfluous for movie distribution.

Well if we buy in to this argument then we don't need ANY new format as there are ways to make HD resolution movies fit on double layer, or even single layer standard DVDs. Some titles are already available in WM9 format or even Divx-HD.

More space means one of two things really, more audio/video, or higher quality audio/video. Just look at the supported bitrates for the formats:

DVD - 11.1mbps
HD-DVD - 36.5 mbps
Blu-ray - 54 mbps

That extra throughput could mean things like uncompressed audio rather than Dolby Digital or DTS. PCM is supported on DVD but rarely ever used. It may not happen, but there is potential for future growth, whereas HD-DVD is pretty much maxed out with a 2 hour movie. Seeing as how we're not likely to get another successful format for years to come, I would rather have the one with the most potential.

joeboy_45101
Mar 10, 2005, 04:36 PM
In my opinion, at the present time, HD-DVD will be the winner. Not because it is technically superior to Sony's Blu-Ray, but because it is a baby step in terms of implementation. All of the technology to make and distribute an HD-DVD is here, the Blu-Ray consortium still seems to be trying to figure out exactly how they will create these things,

"Well, gentlemen we need to figure out a way to set up facilities to manufacture the special coatings and disks, and on top of that we need to make sure that the manufacturing processes are efficient enough to spit these things out in sufficient numbers."

While all the materials and manufacturing processes already exsist for HD-DVD. This won't mean the death for Blu-Ray technology, it's just not completely ready right now.
Here's how I think the progression will go:

CD -> DVD -> HD-DVD -> Blu-Ray -> ?

MacsRgr8
Mar 10, 2005, 04:37 PM
Never thought this would become such a heated discussion....

I'm just glad Apple followed the rest of the PC vendors. No more "Damn, burnt on a Mac, so won't play on my PC (or vice versa)"

Apple has to stay compatible with the rest no matter what.
If most PC makers will use HD-DVD... then so should Apple. They opt for Blu Ray? Good. So should Apple. Finally Apple didn't choose before the rest did :rolleyes:

Any possibilities for a drive compatible with both?

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 04:39 PM
PS: I suspect nuckinfutz is trolling. Oh well, I bit.

Nay. Nuck is an "old hand" here who just happens to be a contrarian when he can. I simply got tired of being told that Blu-Ray is superior. Yes I readily admit that Blu-Ray is superior in capacity. But beyond that the technologies even at best. I plan to own both formats because I love movies and buying two players is what I must do.

Most studios aren't going to give an exclusive to either format. Thus whatever format is demonstrably cheaper to produce will eventually see the lion's share of production. I believe that format to be HD-DVD.

Sony is the world leader in optical disc technology. Will that be enough. We shall see soon enough.

juniormaj
Mar 10, 2005, 04:42 PM
Hold on there what are these studios going to do, put a film that fits in VHS and DVD onto a disc that is much larger in capacity, what a waste of a damn disc, unless they film them again in HD or something, who knows.

Any movie shot on film could be transferred to an HD format. In fact many already have been mastered in HD.
When a film gets "tele-cined" for a video format the resulting master is often up to HD spec. If you see a current DVD that says "mastered in high definition" then an HD transfer for that film already exists. It was just down-rezzed when transferred to DVD.
More HD quality masters exist than are touted on the boxes.
A lot of old films are being transferred to HD for preservation as well, so HD masters of these are ready to go for whatever future format wins.
The tv network "HDNet Movies" has been showing many older films that have been transferred to HD, and Universal-HD has been doing the same.
In some cases there are certainly movies that will have to be re-transferred because the only video master is lower than HD resolution, but as long as the film copy still exists it would be possible.

On another subject : Extra space.
I would imagine some movies might benefit from a SuperBit-style treatment even after an HD disc standard is set. Although HD only requires a certain amount of bandwidth, what's to stop manufacturers from giving certain titles a little more for even better picture quality? That would eat up the extra GBs.

Kagetenshi
Mar 10, 2005, 04:45 PM
I simply got tired of being told that Blu-Ray is superior. Yes I readily admit that Blu-Ray is superior in capacity. But beyond that the technologies even at best.

If it's superior in capacity and everything else is even, it's a better format. There's no "but" about it.

~J

joekun
Mar 10, 2005, 04:49 PM
Thus whatever format is demonstrably cheaper to produce will eventually see the lion's share of production. I believe that format to be HD-DVD.

You're being awfully short-sighted here. Sure, HD-DVD will be cheaper to produce at first, but blu-ray will come down as well. When the PS3 comes out there is going to be a high demand for blu-ray replication and that demand will find willing replication facilities. This will bring costs down. So far no game system has announced support for HD-DVD, it looks as though X-Box is going to have a standard DVD drive, and I doubt that Nintendo will use HD-DVD.

So by your logic,
HD-DVD - 89 titles announced, no game system
Blu-Ray - no titles announced, major game system with hundreds of guaranteed titles.

1984
Mar 10, 2005, 04:50 PM
For the record I'm a supporter of both technologies. I realize that I will have to own both but I grow weary of the "Blu-Ray is better because it holds more data" while that's great for storing my own data it means squat for studios.


Well sure, I suppose it doesn't mean squat for those studios that have been overtaken by marketing BS and don't realize Blu-Ray will cost less in the long run. Being able to fit more on a Blu-Ray disc benefits everyone. They could put both versions of a movie (theatrical and director's cut) on a single disc plus all the extras and still not have to dumb down the bitrate. Also, the extra capacity will be very important to those who want to record HD content. People tend to forget about the recording aspect.

Look, it's obvious that HD-DVD is the absolute bare minimum needed for HD content. Is it ever safe to go with the bare minimum? Who knows what the future brings. It was thought DVD had enough capacity until extras and featurettes came along. Those who care about quality will want higher bitrates as well. Manufacturers and consumers alike need to look further down the road. If a HD format is to last more than a couple years it must offer more that the bare minumum.

Microsoft is to HD-DVD as Apple is to Blu-Ray. Think about it.

cgc
Mar 10, 2005, 04:51 PM
Hate to quote Mr. Dvorak, but here's what he said in a recent article taken from http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1750098,00.asp

When new technologies emerge, there are always competitors, and the current battle raging between the Blu-ray DVD standard (HP, Panasonic, Sony, etc.) and the newer HD-DVD technology (NEC, Sanyo, Toshiba) is no exception. A clear winner hasn't emerged, but looking at the history of this sort of battle, it's apparent to me that HD-DVD will win. Here's why.


Both technologies are targeting the same market: HDTV and data storage. HD-DVD emphasizes HDTV, with a 30GB capacity and a smoother backward compatibility with current DVD technology. A Blu-ray disc holds a whopping 50GB on two layers; Sony has announced an eight-layer drive to hold 200GB. The latter sounds like an ideal backup medium, but making a drive with four writable layers on each side that works outside the lab seems far-fetched.


The scene is further complicated by the competing compression schemes. The recently ratified H.264 (or H.264/AVC), otherwise known as MPEG-4 Part 10—the latest iteration of the MPEG-4 standard—can produce images of better quality than MPEG-2 (used by DVD technology), with twice the compression. HD images require around seven times the disk capacity of SD (standard definition) TV images when recorded. (I derived this number by using an HD-DVR.) With H.264 and 30GB, you have the MPEG-2 equivalency of about 60GB, which should easily hold an HD movie. The Blu-ray has much more leeway.




If H.264 isn't good enough, then there is the Microsoft VC-1 codec, derived from Windows Media 9 technology. By all accounts, it's at least as good as, if not better than, H.264. It's so good that the Blu-ray specification calls for it to be used jointly with H.264. From an objective standpoint, we have a superior technology in Blu-ray competing with something not as good. It sounds like the Betamax versus VHS battle. But there I would argue that the definition of superior was in the eyes of the beholder. That's the problem with judging technology based on one's perception or definition of superiority. Users found VHS technology was superior, because the tapes could hold more hours of programming. And this was more important to them than image quality.


We must examine technologies in terms of what I call practical superiority: the differentiation that is responsible for eventual success in the marketplace. Then we must consider secondary issues of politics and promotion. If all things are equal, can one technology overtake the other with superior marketing?


If we look at capacity alone, Blu-ray is clearly superior. I suspect that just as the image-quality gap was eventually closed between VHS and Beta, the capacity gap will close here too. So what is HD-DVD's practical superiority? It's cheaper to make and more easily made backward-compatible. Cheaper to make is the key here, especially in a world where the emphasis is shifting to places like India and China. If image quality is the same, the cheaper product will win. Thus the major Hollywood studios have said they'll support HD-DVD. Sony Entertainment, of course, won't (yet).


Then there are the politics of this—the most interesting aspect. First, the DVD Forum has endorsed HD-DVD and not Blu-ray. The Sony-led Blu-ray consortium probably didn't think this was important, after witnessing the emergence of DVD+RW without any support from the DVD Forum.


Another subtext is the copy-protection mechanism. The HD-DVD system is being sold as uncrackable. True or not, it sounds good to Hollywood. Blu-ray seems more liberal in its approach, with "limited-copy" mechanisms similar to those found on DAT recorders. This factor alone could kill Blu-ray among the paranoid Hollywood types. One copy, even if legal, is to be avoided as far as they are concerned.


Then there are the codecs. Manufacturers have to pay for each one installed in every unit. So how long will VC-1 and H.264 coexist in the same boxes when they do the same thing? Do we need two formats? I sense the cheap-thinking HD-DVD folks are ready to scrap VC-1, while Blu-ray is not.


The final factor is the arrows-in-the-back phenomenon, which occurs when a technology comes out too far ahead of the curve—as Blu-ray did. It's been around for years without getting any traction. This makes it seem old—or as if it never worked right. "Blu-ray, I've heard of that. Did they ever get it to work?" Meanwhile, HD-DVD is new and jazzy.


When you put these factors together, along with Sony's track record for being on the wrong side of the technology split, it's hard to see Blu-ray winning this one. Hello, HD-DVD!

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 04:53 PM
Or maybe it's just that HD-DVD is coming out around 6 months sooner than blu-ray in the U.S.

Or perhaps the pricing and production facilities for Blu-Ray aren't at a point where studios are signing the dotted lines and announcing. I really hate to see the announcements (read committment) of these 3 studios trivialized. Thy have stated not only that HD-DVD movies are coming but they've let the public know the exact titles. That's nothing to sneeze at.

Well if we buy in to this argument then we don't need ANY new format as there are ways to make HD resolution movies fit on double layer, or even single layer standard DVDs. Some titles are already available in WM9 format or even Divx-HD.

Incorrecto. HD video requires more space of course but there is a balancing act that needs to happen. The needs of studios are simple.

1. It has to hold your basic feature length film 2hrs or so.
2. It has to be producable in large numbers for a decent cost.
3. The end product has to be reliable and maintain a min set of qualit

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray can do this. DVD-9 cannot IMO.

VC-1 and AVC will quickly take over. 5.5GB of HD content per hour should be easy and audio is easy. Even DTS-HD will only require 1.5mbs per channel. Thus you tack on say 8Mbps to the 12Mbps for video and you're comfortable on both formats.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 05:02 PM
What one has better quality and capacity Blu-ray or HD-DVD?

HD DVD is 30 GB, Blu ray is 54 GB.

However, HD-DVD is VASTLY cheaper to produce, and owned by a consortium of hardware companies, while Blu-ray is controlled completely by Sony (one company).

T.Rex
Mar 10, 2005, 05:04 PM
Yes I readily admit that Blu-Ray is superior in capacity. But beyond that the technologies even at best.

Um, its a storage medium - what more do you want it to do exactly? Give you a backrub? Cook you dinner?

The whole of these new discs is to store more information - therefore the one that is capable of storing the most is therefore obviously the best!!!

As for the argument it costs more, so what? If it holds more data, it justifies its higher cost to me. New technologies are always expensive to begin with, but the price quickly drops once production ramps up. Don't you think the original CDs originally cost more to produce than an LP? Or DVD's originally costing much more than CDs? The fact they cost more didn't mean they weren't a good idea to support.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 05:11 PM
The whole of these new discs is to store more information - therefore the one that is capable of storing the most is therefore obviously the best!!!

As for the argument it costs more, so what? If it holds more data, it justifies its higher cost to me. New technologies are always expensive to begin with, but the price quickly drops once production ramps up. Don't you think the original CDs originally cost more to produce than an LP? Or DVD's originally costing much more than CDs? The fact they cost more didn't mean they weren't a good idea to support.

The best in a archival/backup solution T.Rex. This storage advantage plays no bearing in what the studios want since price is their primary concern once their other needs have been met(2hr movie playback). You won't sneeze at the difference of a few dimes but when they are having billions of discs produced they worry a bit more about the pennies being paid than you or I.

I'm simply giving some of you a reason why Blu-Ray isn't going to be the slam dunk that some portray it to be. I welcome both formats and think that HDTV is a wonderful technology.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 05:14 PM
After reading the Dvorak article above...most interesting.

Sooo, HD-DVD is made easily backwards compatible, but Blu-ray is not?

Well, this certainly explains why the Nintendo Revolution (rumored to have HD-DVD) is (according to Nintendo's statements made today) backwards compatible with GameCube games (which are mini-DVDs).

But here's something to wonder about. Can Sony make the PS3 play PS2 (DVD) and PS1 (CD) games?

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 05:17 PM
Um, its a storage medium - what more do you want it to do exactly? Give you a backrub? Cook you dinner?

The whole of these new discs is to store more information - therefore the one that is capable of storing the most is therefore obviously the best!!!

As for the argument it costs more, so what? If it holds more data, it justifies its higher cost to me. New technologies are always expensive to begin with, but the price quickly drops once production ramps up. Don't you think the original CDs originally cost more to produce than an LP? Or DVD's originally costing much more than CDs? The fact they cost more didn't mean they weren't a good idea to support.

Problems with Blu-ray:
1) It costs more.
2) It's not backwards compatible. A BD player can't play DVDs. An HD-DVD player can.
3) It's controlled by a single company, Sony. HD-DVD is not controlled by any one company.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 05:29 PM
Taken from HD-DVD's promotion site (http://www.hddvdprg.com/index.html)

The genius of HD DVDs is adoption of the same basic disc structure as DVD, allowing disc manufacturers to make full use of current production facilities and to minimize investment costs. Experience in setting up mass production lines for HD DVD discs shows excellent results, including production costs close to those for current DVD. HD DVDs can be produced and brought to market at a reasonable cost, a fact that is sure to spur early expansion of the medium.

This is the part that many people are underestimating. The ease of production because of the same directory structure is a blessing and potentially a curse(remains to be seen).

The advantages of a common disc structure

The shared disc structure of HD DVD and DVD offers numerous advantages to consumers and manufacturers alike. Full backward compatibility allows consumers to enjoy their current DVD library and crystal-clear HD video on the same HD DVD player. DVD disc replicators can utilize their current production equipment with only minor modifications and quickly establish a worldwide manufacturing infrastructure to sustain HDDVD software business development. Moreover, the simple structure of a single-lens optical head that can accommodate both red and blue laser diodes will realize compact systems.


As much as some try to poo poo the price advantage. Walmart is huge for a reason. Costco's lots are full for a reason. Price trumps just about all.

the future
Mar 10, 2005, 05:32 PM
I suggest to everyone who is really interested in the blu-ray vs. hd-dvd pros and cons (hint: there are basically zero pros to hd-dvd as their "cost advantage" will be not only minimal, but also short-lived) to leave this thread and read the following thread on the avs forums where many very knowledgable folks post: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?threadid=411600&perpage=20&pagenumber=236

Yes, the thread is at page 236 right now :eek:, but it's very interesting and shows just how clueless some posters over here are... *cough* nuckinfutz *cough* GFLPraxis *cough* :)

MikeT
Mar 10, 2005, 05:42 PM
Hi, new member here...

A few thoughts...

Dvorak's crystal ball leaves a lot to be desired. I wish I had a dollar for every time he's written an obituary for Apple. If he's betting on HD-DVD, then it's Blu Ray by a mile.

IMO, Apple is very smart to go with the Blu Ray format. If Dell & HP are going Blu Ray, then this will be the PC standard. The drives will become a commodity (i.e., cheaper and more plentiful).

Apple will be able to offer desktops & notebooks with high def drives at the same time as Dell & HP. If Apple were the only major computer maker on the HD-DVD side, they'd be in a very weak position in terms of getting Toshiba to make notebook-sized drives, etc.

the future
Mar 10, 2005, 05:46 PM
Problems with Blu-ray:
1) It costs more.
2) It's not backwards compatible. A BD player can't play DVDs. An HD-DVD player can.
3) It's controlled by a single company, Sony. HD-DVD is not controlled by any one company.

1) Not by much, and not for long.
2) LOL... of course BD players will be able to play DVDs. Don't be silly.
3) Sigh... there are over 100 companys supporting blu-ray, with most of the big names on their directors board.

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 05:46 PM
True. Blu-Ray retrofit plus extra cost of disc coatings means way too high of an economic disparity between the competing formats. Even though of it's higher capacity, I still believe HD DVD will win out in the end.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 05:49 PM
1) Not by much, and not for long.
2) LOL... of course BD players will be able to play DVDs. Don't be silly.
3) Sigh... there are over 100 companys supporting blu-ray, with most of the big names on their director's board

1) How can you say that, when it'll require the entire industry to adapt around it? The initial BD players will be very expensive.
2) To quote the above article:
So what is HD-DVD's practical superiority? It's cheaper to make and more easily made backward-compatible.
Why would it be able to play normal DVD's? Normal DVD's and HD-DVD use a red laser, right? Blu-ray uses a blue one. Sooo...it'll be harder to get backwards compatability.
3) There are over 100 supporting Blu-ray. Sony still controls it absolutely. Those 100 just are supporting making it the standard.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 05:50 PM
I suggest to everyone who is really interested in the blu-ray vs. hd-dvd pros and cons (hint: there are basically zero pros to hd-dvd as their "cost advantage" will be not only minimal, but also short-lived) to leave this thread and read the following thread on the avs forums where many very knowledgable folks post: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?threadid=411600&perpage=20&pagenumber=236

Yes, the thread is at page 236 right now :eek:, but it's very interesting and shows just how clueless some posters over here are... *cough* nuckinfutz *cough* GFLPraxis *cough* :)

I just quoted the article, bud. Don't blame me if Dvorak is an idiot.
I was listing the advantages and disadvantages according to the above article.
From what I've seen I still feel I'm correct unless you can SHOW ME where I am wrong. And sending me a 250 page discussion and saying "read this" doesn't count.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 06:01 PM
Yes, the thread is at page 236 right now , but it's very interesting and shows just how clueless some posters over here are... *cough* nuckinfutz *cough* GFLPraxis *cough*

Hmmmmm AVS huh. What's your response to these points then. Alex seems to know his stuff too :P

This whole thread rocks (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=483444&perpage=20&pagenumber=22)

Dan,

I have no ties to either camp, nor to the industry. Sometimes I like to play devil's advocate, sometimes I like to correct blantant mis(dis)information. There is a lot of misinformation surrounding both formats here, and, unfortuately, there's a lot of disinformation as well. Sometimes, I like to stick up for the little guy.

My "support" for HD-DVD is based on one thing, and one thing only: I believe that it will get more HD movies that I want to watch into my hands faster than BD. No matter how you slice it, both formats satisfy Hollywood's requirements, both will look a hell of a lot better than what we have now (including D-Theater). The format that poses the least amount of hurdles, the format that that requires the least amount of capital investment...that's the format that's most likely to ramp up fastest.

If the BDA announced tomorrow that they will have a deck available Q4 for $1000 MSRP and 89 studio titles available Q4 for $20-30 MSRP a pop, I'd find it in my heart to spread the love. Said another way, if BD-ROM had cost partity (or a seriously legitimate chance of it in a reasonable timeframe) with HD-DVD, we wouldn't be facing a war...but we are...because BD-ROM won't have cost parity with HD-DVD for a long, long time...if ever, assuming both formats split the market.

And before people start flaming me for wanting an "inferior" product, please understand that I place a high value on video and audio quality...before I moved to the islands, I was using a G90 + HTPC + MP-1 Radeon + Faroudja DVP-5000 for video, with an MC-12B, monoblocks and a 7.1 Aerial setup for audio.

I will say this, though: there do seem to be an increasing number of BD supporters who are clasping their hands over their ears and screaming "Not listening!" when their "facts" are countered, or when their assumptions are rendered baseless. If anything, I think their motives or ties to the indstry should be questioned.

Hmm sounds like not all of us are seduced by the "spacious" Blu-Ray.

Please someone point out to me where I'm blatantly wrong?

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 06:02 PM
It's a brilliant way to respond though.

Someone disagrees with you, send them a link to a 250 page discussion and tell them that the answer is somewhere in there, and then hint how the people arguing with you are clueless.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 06:04 PM
Please someone point out to me where I'm blatantly wrong?

You're not. From what I've seen, people are just looking at the numbers, and saying, "Ooooh, more gigs, me want!" and not considering all the factors.

Nermal
Mar 10, 2005, 06:07 PM
The thing I find the most interesting is that Steve mentioned future Blu-Ray support at Macworld, and I'm apparently the only person that noticed :rolleyes:

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 06:08 PM
It's a brilliant way to respond though.

Someone disagrees with you, send them a link to a 250 page discussion and tell them that the answer is somewhere in there, and then hint how the people arguing with you are clueless.

GFLPraxis.

That's what people do when they can't attack your information. They attack you. It won't work though because we aren't saying that BR sucks. We're just saying that HD-DVD is better than what most people give it credit for. Frankly i'm amazed that.

1. We're going to have HD playback on a device that uses the same structure as DVD.
2. That compression tech like AVC and VC-1 are going to enable excellent quality at SD and HD datarates.

Apple is likely going with BR for its prowess from within a computing environment. I'm sure we'll have Blu-Ray options in Longhorn and HD-DVD options in OSX. In the end it is really about the bottom line. $$$$

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 06:15 PM
It's always interesting to see people take sides, without know ALL the details of both formats, and then decide to defend it like its some sort of a religion.

Calihafan
Mar 10, 2005, 06:19 PM
Apple and Sony have obviously been trying to do something together for a while - this is just more proof. The HD thing, and now Blu-ray... I think that both Sony and Apple design GREAT hardware (I love VIAOS, inferior to Macs but still very nice) but only Apple designs GREAT software. I think that a partnership would be beneficial.

How much more time until a Sony Pictures-sponsored Apple Movie Store? Or Sony PDAs/phones running an Apple-written OS? Or a cell-powered Apple Server or high-end workstation? The possibilites are endless.

Calihafan

cgc
Mar 10, 2005, 06:28 PM
Blu-Ray will play DVDs and maybe CDs. We have "combo drives" right now that do DVD and CD so why not do a "combo-drive EXTREME?" (TM) Cost is my only concern...

ziwi
Mar 10, 2005, 06:44 PM
interesting...between this and the Ram rumor - me thinks something is almost inevitable...512 becoming stadard - probably required for tiger and the blue ray - the next PM will have this.

Edot
Mar 10, 2005, 06:46 PM
OMG I have to buy a new player to play music! OMG All these cassette tapes won't work in a CD player! OMG Why do I need that much space when my cassettes seem to hold all the music I need? Why can't we just stick with the same technology forever, so I don't have to buy new things for a better product. The lame cassettes work for me! Psshhaaaww, who needs digital content. Besides I heard something about DVD's that hold like 10x what a CD holds. What are these people thinking!! Cassettes for LIFE! :rolleyes:

Blue-ray offers much more in terms of capacity (maybe other things?) than the traditional red-ray since it uses a high frequency. Get over it and advance the tech, and stop whining about compatibility. Capitalism will force you to upgrade sooner or later, might as well upgrade to something that benefits you and is not just a business profit ploy.

rdowns
Mar 10, 2005, 06:46 PM
Bad example - the porn industry heartily embraced Betamax back in the day.

I disagree. The porn industry embraced home video and put their wares on Beta and VHS.

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 06:49 PM
Porn didn't help VHS. Sony was pigheaded and they wanted exorbitant licensing fees for BetaMax.

Dagless
Mar 10, 2005, 06:51 PM
i said it before ill say it again, but with more zaz!

we're all mac people, for the most. we must all have a bit of money to be able to afford mac instead of shed-built PC's. therefore i doubt that the financial aspects will be important. but to 99% of people out there without computers or who dont really give much damn to what they are using; the cheaper will win.
joe public likes cheap. it means you can have more.

heres something though; say it costs £1 for a HD DVD which holds 30Gb. that means £2 would fetch 60Gb, £4=120gb... in the other corner £5 for a Blu Ray disc which holds 50Gb.

personally with that in mind, i reckon the HD DVD will very happily suit mr. and mrs. TV recorders. as for games; Blu Ray does sound better.

oh joyus days! when i will need 2 seperate drives in my computer... joyus...

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 06:57 PM
Blu-Ray will play DVDs and maybe CDs. We have "combo drives" right now that do DVD and CD so why not do a "combo-drive EXTREME?" (TM) Cost is my only concern...

Exactly. You have to have a blue AND red laser in a BR combo drive. Thats gonna drive the cost up a pretty penny.

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 06:59 PM
Exactly. You have to have a blue AND red laser in a BR combo drive. Thats gonna drive the cost up a pretty penny.

Can't a blue laser just read the pits designed for red lasers?

Furrybeagle
Mar 10, 2005, 07:00 PM
I don't care as long as they release a Mac compatible external drive. :p


Couldn't you have a drive that has a red laser, that supports HD-DVD, DVD, and CD formats, along with a blue laser, that supports the BluRay formats? That would be the best thing. Of course much more expensive. But imagine all those CD formats, plus all those DVD formats, plus the HD-DVD formats, with a bunch more BluRay formats. Oh yeah, and while your at it, make it thin and slotloading too! :D

hvfsl
Mar 10, 2005, 07:06 PM
Well as others have said in this thread, I want to be able to watch a LOTR movie in the HD, without having to change over disks, half way through the movie. BlueRay looks like it will be better for this than HD-DVD, so I want BlueRay to win. :D

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 07:07 PM
Ok what of holographic DVDs that can hold 1 TB of data? Any news?

deanbo
Mar 10, 2005, 07:09 PM
I had no idea Blu Ray required a caddy. I still remember CD caddies, and what a pain in the ass they were.

I can't believe companies would even consider adopting a technolgy that requires a caddy to operate.

nagromme
Mar 10, 2005, 07:12 PM
Blu-ray does not require caddies.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 07:12 PM
Can't a blue laser just read the pits designed for red lasers?


No the technology is too different. Because the file structure is the same on HD-DVD they've been able to add DVD support from day 1 into the spec. Blue-Ray has to tack on the red laser.

One thing I think you'll see is that initially HD-DVD will require smaller chassis, look at the Blu-Ray decks..they're HUGE. This all amounts to more money for the consumer to pay.

Toshiba hasn't guaranteed it but they are hinting at $1k drives at launch far more than Sony is. In fact Sony will not allude to anything pricewise and that's rather disconcerting to me. They simply do not know what they can price Blu-Ray now and feel comfortable letting the public know.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 07:14 PM
Well as others have said in this thread, I want to be able to watch a LOTR movie in the HD, without having to change over disks, half way through the movie. BlueRay looks like it will be better for this than HD-DVD, so I want BlueRay to win. :D


AVC and VC-1 codecs will provide 1hr of HD video for every 6GB of data. Thus even the longest running 4 hour extended edition DVD only takes 24GB which easily fits on both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

Nermal
Mar 10, 2005, 07:15 PM
Blu-ray does not require caddies.

Not anymore, but it did. The original poster said required, not requires :)

gwangung
Mar 10, 2005, 07:26 PM
It's a brilliant way to respond though.

Someone disagrees with you, send them a link to a 250 page discussion and tell them that the answer is somewhere in there, and then hint how the people arguing with you are clueless.

Could be. That's the response I get from creationists when I point to evidence for evolution.

Seriously, neither response is a compelling argument; I'd prefer more a boiling down of content. ANd it's also not a slam dunk that the price advantages will be maintained for HD-DVD...A lot will also depend on the mass adoption of HD, and the timing for all the various technologies.

froejoe
Mar 10, 2005, 07:26 PM
So, how soon until we see a Blu-Ray drive on a Mac?

They'll be available on Tuesday.

ipodmann
Mar 10, 2005, 07:43 PM
HEY !!!

This explains the delay in the PowerMacs. Apple has the right cheap ready to ship out, but they have to wait for the right technology on the DVD Drives. :rolleyes:

I know how crazy it sounds but you have to admit for a second it made sense.

AmnesiacOpera
Mar 10, 2005, 07:44 PM
Toshiba hasn't guaranteed it but they are hinting at $1k drives at launch far more than Sony is. In fact Sony will not allude to anything pricewise and that's rather disconcerting to me. They simply do not know what they can price Blu-Ray now and feel comfortable letting the public know.

Sony has already announced that the successor to the Playstation 2 will use Blu-Ray discs. The console is due out sometime in 2006, probably late fall. At most, the console will cost $300 at launch, anything more would most likely be suicide, especially if Xbox 2 had already been on the market for a full year. So if a game console/Blu-ray player will be $300 (Which would within a year drop to $200), then I believe the price of a standalone player will be pushed down considerably. Obviously, early adopters who buy Blu-Ray immediately will be paying too much, but by next year I believe Blu-Ray drives will be as affordable as HD-DVD drives hope to be.

jouster
Mar 10, 2005, 07:48 PM
I've already seen some porn videos shot with those new Sony HDV cameras and all I can say is, mother o' mighty.....Whichever format wins in the end, it's coming.

Quite literally!!


:D

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 08:12 PM
Ok what of holographic DVDs that can hold 1 TB of data? Any news?

Still a few years off.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 08:13 PM
I don't care as long as they release a Mac compatible external drive. :p


Couldn't you have a drive that has a red laser, that supports HD-DVD, DVD, and CD formats, along with a blue laser, that supports the BluRay formats? That would be the best thing. Of course much more expensive. But imagine all those CD formats, plus all those DVD formats, plus the HD-DVD formats, with a bunch more BluRay formats. Oh yeah, and while your at it, make it thin and slotloading too! :D

Yup. But it'd be very, very expensive.

Object-X
Mar 10, 2005, 08:17 PM
Very salient point. I've seen

http://storage.itworld.com/4653/050110adulthd/page_1.html

Points out that the Porn industry is watching as well. I think you'll find them go HD-DVD because of costs. They really don't need the extra space of Blu-Ray IMO.

So size doesn't matter? :rolleyes:

Object-X
Mar 10, 2005, 08:20 PM
Well as others have said in this thread, I want to be able to watch a LOTR movie in the HD, without having to change over disks, half way through the movie. BlueRay looks like it will be better for this than HD-DVD, so I want BlueRay to win. :D

I want to watch the whole trilogy (extended) without changing discs! :eek:

And recut so no credits until the very end!

hechacker1
Mar 10, 2005, 08:25 PM
people here need to read up on HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. There are a lot of misconceptions about them.

CDFreaks just did an article a few days ago about this. It is more updated than a lot of your old information.

http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 08:29 PM
Sony has already announced that the successor to the Playstation 2 will use Blu-Ray discs. The console is due out sometime in 2006, probably late fall. At most, the console will cost $300 at launch, anything more would most likely be suicide, especially if Xbox 2 had already been on the market for a full year. So if a game console/Blu-ray player will be $300 (Which would within a year drop to $200), then I believe the price of a standalone player will be pushed down considerably. Obviously, early adopters who buy Blu-Ray immediately will be paying too much, but by next year I believe Blu-Ray drives will be as affordable as HD-DVD drives hope to be.

However, their are rumors that the PS3 might be $500 and function as a media center with connection to Sony's music store.

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-5593290.html

What will it cost?
Sony--Consoles have entered the market at $300 for the last few hardware cycles, but some analysts think that game companies will push the bar with this generation. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter predicted in a report last year that the PS3 could come with a price tag as high as $500 if Sony thinks it can cram in enough multimedia functions to justify the price.

The music store thing came from other sites, but it makes sense.

GFLPraxis
Mar 10, 2005, 08:32 PM
I want to watch the whole trilogy (extended) without changing discs! :eek:

And recut so no credits until the very end!

If you use SD instead of HD, either Blu-ray or HD-DVD could probably fit the whole thing :D

Lacero
Mar 10, 2005, 08:35 PM
You can fit 4 hours of DV video on blu-ray. This would be awesome for video producers who need to archive their footage. Of course, the cost of each disc should be under $2, but seeing price declines of DVD-R media, we won't get affordable, mass consumer media until 2010! :eek:

JesterJJZ
Mar 10, 2005, 09:00 PM
"Everything else is tenuous?" My two cents:

Neither of these will catch on in the movie market, simply because regular DVD quality is more than good enough for a standard television.


Well these formats aren't really designed for standard televisions anyway. "Regular" TV's would hardly see any differnence in quality when watching a HD title thats been downconverted to SD. These formats are to push HD. HD is at a crawl untill we have a use for it. For HD to catch on we need HD recording and viewing capability. For many people, the only thing you can see in HD right now is Jay Leno.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 09:06 PM
people here need to read up on HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. There are a lot of misconceptions about them.

CDFreaks just did an article a few days ago about this. It is more updated than a lot of your old information.

http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186

Allow me to correct this author.

You can record about 13 hours of standard TV but only a bit more than 2 hours of uncompressed high definition TV on a 25GB disc.

HDTV and to be more specific the ATSC format that is HDTV has "never" been uncompressed. 1920x1080i/p uncompressed video would be over 300 megabytes a second.

Herbert wrote a very good article. Balanced and unbiased I agree whole heartedly with his conclusion. Will price win out over technological superiority? That's what we're going to find out.

daveL
Mar 10, 2005, 09:20 PM
Will price win out over technological superiority? That's what we're going to find out.
This is a question? The answer has been written over and over. We are talking about Joe Consumer, not avid early adopters of technology with a bunch of discretionary income. The *is* vhs vs beta max, regardless of the opinion in this forum. If Blu-Ray can't get their price down to compete head-to-head with HD-DVD, then they will loose. BTW, I am a Blu-Ray advocate and a Beta Max owner, until you couldn't get movies or buy media. Get real. When you are talking about the average buyer, you're talking about money; they simply don't know enough to make a decision based on anything other than their budget.

1984
Mar 10, 2005, 09:31 PM
No the technology is too different. Because the file structure is the same on HD-DVD they've been able to add DVD support from day 1 into the spec. Blue-Ray has to tack on the red laser.

Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use blue lasers and both will require additional red lasers to be backwards compatible with DVD and CD.

R3z
Mar 10, 2005, 09:34 PM
Hm. Looks like I'm a bit late to the party, but I might as well throw in my $.02:

1. No matter which format wins, it's going to be more expensive out the door. This is a GIVEN.

2. The lower cost of HD-DVD will not impact how much we pay for movies. DVD's cost less than a penny to mass produce, and far less than VHS to distribute, and are only now approaching the prices that VHS used to sell for.

3. Cost always goes down over time. Initial cost of investment means very little over the long run - it's going to be a good few years before either format becomes widespread, but what's going to really determine the return on investment is going to be how long the format can be in play - ie., the expandability. Blu-Ray may cost more to introduce, but if it's ceiling is 3-6x that of HD-DVD, it's going to make much more sense over the long run, both financially and technically.

4. To say "30gb is enough!" is absolutely foolish. Enough for what, HD resolution? What happens when resolution gets higher than HD (And it WILL...)? The history of storage is a history of using more we ever thought we could need - remember when a 300mb drive was Enormous? To hobble ourselves out the gate is not only incredibly shortsighted, it's also ignoring more than 50 years of computing evidence.

5. Apple and Sony eventually had to fold to the pressure and offer DVD+R drives. Why? HP and Dell, who collectively claim more than 1/3 of the worldwide market (and more of the US market), went with dvd+r. Now you've got HP, Dell, Sony, Pioneer, Philips, and Samsung supporting the same format - that's a HUGE chunk of market.

To judge a format based on current price is foolish. Price always starts high and drops fast, and this will be no difference. If the format is expandable enough and lasts a while, the equipment will be well in the range of affordable in short order. Further, to say "30gb is more than enough" is ignoring both the past and the future. This may be enough as far as HD is concerned, yes, but by no measure will a limited format serve for the future. This is a predicament that's seen so often in computing that it's absurd to think the debate still exists between cost and future expandability - short term price benefits rarely translate into true long term savings. I'm not saying HD-DVD is crap, but Blu-Ray starts higher and promises more, so I simply don't see the benefit of hamstringing the industry with an inferior format to save a few dollars in the short run.

1984
Mar 10, 2005, 09:43 PM
This article echos the quality issue I've seen:

http://www.dvdreview.com/html/new_format_war.html

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 09:45 PM
Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use blue lasers and both will require additional red lasers to be backwards compatible with DVD and CD.

My post never disputed that fact. The important part is that the red laser support for HD-DVD has been there from the beginning and is part of the design.

HD-DVD Promotion Group (http://www.hddvdprg.com/hddvd/hddvd_2.html)

the simple structure of a single-lens optical head that can accommodate both red and blue laser diodes will realize compact systems.


2. The lower cost of HD-DVD will not impact how much we pay for movies. DVD's cost less than a penny to mass produce, and far less than VHS to distribute, and are only now approaching the prices that VHS used to sell for.

Of course it does. Toshiba HD-DVD execs are already hinting at players for $1000 or less and they've announced 89 titles. Blu-Ray has been silent. It's well known that HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture thus initial prices may be high to consumers but HD-DVD should be more profitable to studios than Blu-Ray.

Blu-Ray may cost more to introduce, but if it's ceiling is 3-6x that of HD-DVD, it's going to make much more sense over the long run, both financially and technically.

What are feature films suddenly going to move to 4 hr play times? Within the context of movie distribution HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have enough room to grow. Computers is another story. Blu-Ray has a huge advantage here.

short term price benefits rarely translate into true long term savings. I'm not saying HD-DVD is crap, but Blu-Ray starts higher and promises more, so I simply don't see the benefit of hamstringing the industry with an inferior format to save a few dollars in the short run.

You're failing to see history has almost always sided with the cheaper product.

VHS-Beta- Cheaper VHS wins
Macintosh- PC- Cheaper PC wins

HD-DVD "is" cheaper folks. And despite our desires to justify those extra 20GB of data when we see the HD-DVD player in Best Buy next to the Blu-Ray player and it's $200 cheaper we know where most people are going.

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 09:48 PM
This article echos the quality issue I've seen:

http://www.dvdreview.com/html/new_format_war.html


HD-DVD and Blu-Ray support the same codecs. Any qualitative difference you see is due to the talent of the compression hardware/software or engineer.

Guido Henkel produces games with blocky graphics. He's hardly the source I want to read reviews from. When Ben Waggonner (http://www.interframemedia.com/) reports I'll tune in.

R3z
Mar 10, 2005, 09:58 PM
Again, I'll point out you're looking at today's formats and media while judging tomorrow's data needs. You may be right that a 2 hr movie will fit comfortably on a 30gb disk at HD resolution, but then again we're having this debate because a 2 hr movie at HD resolution won't fit on an 8gb disk, so to apply "just enough" philosophies to future formats is being a touch shortsighted.

Again, Toshiba can offer what they like, but they were one of the earlier proponants of DVD-RAM as well. They're hardly a market determinant.

What I will agree with you on, and it depresses me to the core, is that the cost is likely to be the determinant here. I work at Best Buy, and you're absolutely right, consumers will go for whatever's cheapest. At the end of the day, the argument over technical superiority is moot when compared to the market.

stephenli
Mar 10, 2005, 10:05 PM
could we also suppose Apple would have some BD as early as WWDC?
well....
comeon steve, what we need is Dual Layer DVD R!! give us native support and internal drive!!!

btw, before we could edit HD video "easily" at "entry level" iMovie, we need a HD VIDEO CAM!!! or else it would be no use...
hay, comeon SONY, make us some "entry level" HD DV, and of course, with entry level SIZE and PRICE, please!!!!

nuckinfutz
Mar 10, 2005, 10:11 PM
R3z.

I do admit I like the 50GB of space that Blu-Ray offers. I can't wait to get a Blu-Ray optical drive for a future computer system. Thank God for HDMI connections because with any more format wars there will be no room in the A/V rack :D

Bob Dobbs
Mar 10, 2005, 10:14 PM
could we also suppose Apple would have some BD as early as WWDC?
well....
comeon steve, what we need is Dual Layer DVD R!! give us native support and internal drive!!!

btw, before we could edit HD video "easily" at "entry level" iMovie, we need a HD VIDEO CAM!!! or else it would be no use...
hay, comeon SONY, make us some "entry level" HD DV, and of course, with entry level SIZE and PRICE, please!!!!

Its called the HVR-Z1. Its a HDV camera about $5000 for the 'prosumer' and $3700 for the non XLR audio version.

go here for lots more
http://www.creativecow.net/forum/view_posts.php?forumid=162

the price will go down - JVC also has a cheaper 1 chip HDV camera - not sure how much$$$

pizzach
Mar 10, 2005, 10:24 PM
C'mon guys. Let's look at this from the videogame Perspective. Sony is going with Blu-ray. Nintendo is probably going with HD-DVD. Nintendo wouldn't go for HD-DVD unless it is sure to fail because they like their proprietary...er...I mean they don't like copies of games easily made.

aafuss1
Mar 10, 2005, 10:42 PM
I don't think anyone has it yet, As far as I know its still in development.
Good to hear the Blu-ray has been adopted by Apple-first maube we'll see dual layer drives in macs, then later blu-ray.

stephenli
Mar 10, 2005, 11:03 PM
C'mon guys. Let's look at this from the videogame Perspective. Sony is going with Blu-ray. Nintendo is probably going with HD-DVD. Nintendo wouldn't go for HD-DVD unless it is sure to fail because they like their proprietary...er...I mean they don't like copies of games easily made.

e....Nintendo used to partner with Panasonic. A variation of Game cube call "Q", was released by panasonic, and GBA is using SD card on its official video / mp3 player...
So, if Panasonic goes with BD, then Nintendo probabaly. Though it may be produced as a smaller size, or with a strange case to cover it (just like UMD....i suppose)

obeygiant
Mar 10, 2005, 11:23 PM
dude srsly,

blu-ray comes in an ugly cartridge.

sure it holds 20 gb more, but who flippin cares.

VHS is way crappier than betamax, but VHS was cheaper to make.

BANG!

VHS wins.

Over the million and millions of discs made those clunky cartidges
are going to cost crapload of money...

go with the regular disc.. it even fits in the same packaging.


hd-dvd all the way...MARK MY WORDS!

Dr. Dastardly
Mar 10, 2005, 11:24 PM
Just a thought but is it completely out of the realm of possibility that we could just end up seeing both formats and have machines that can read both?

And when Blu-Ray comes out I doubt it will even be in those little catridges. If they do it will be for a very short time.

obeygiant
Mar 10, 2005, 11:43 PM
And when Blu-Ray comes out I doubt it will even be in those little catridges. If they do it will be for a very short time.

i hope you're right you crazy man.

without the cartridges, i dont give a crap.

markie
Mar 10, 2005, 11:48 PM
Okay, seriously folks, there's no way Blu-Ray WON'T be the winner, look who they've got:

Apple - traditional innovator
Disney - MAJOR movie studio
Sony - first HD camcorder, huge movie library, PlayStation3
LG - inventor of the US HDTV format (Zenith is an LG subsidiary) - to this day the market leader in HD decoder products.
Dell - largest Windows PC vendor
Samsung - major player in the TV and DVD player market
Philips - same
Matsushita - owners of JVC, the inventor of VHS (and Sony made Betamax - so Blu-ray has the inventors of both VHS and Betamax behind it!)
HP - Apple partner, huge in the Windows industry
Hitachi, Sharp - major TV makers
Pioneer - yes, the big LaserDisc player (a THIRD historical format whose main backer is behind Blu-ray)
TDK - media company, so there will be discs
Thomson - RCA. Okay, so it doesn't mean much but it's more on the list

Now tell me - with those industry heavyweights (that is, all the industry heavyweights essentially) backing Blu-ray, how could it NOT be the winner?

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 12:55 AM
Okay, seriously folks, there's no way Blu-Ray WON'T be the winner, look who they've got:?


Apple - traditional innovator-- So what? What did Apple do for DVD-RAM that would lead you to believe they are a factor?

Disney - MAJOR movie studio--Warner Brothers MAJOR movie studio HD-DVD

Sony - first HD camcorder-- Wrong JVC created the HDV format and the GR-HD1 was first the consumer HD.

huge movie library, PlayStation3-- HD-DVD is supported by Universal,Paramount, New Line and WB. They likely have the larger movie library. PS3 isn't due until well into 2006

LG - inventor of the US HDTV format (Zenith is an LG subsidiary) - to this day the market leader in HD decoder products.-- Do they own pressing plants? Decoding HDTV is the easy part. Making the discs cheaply is the hard part.

Dell - largest Windows PC vendor- So what?

Samsung - major player in the TV and DVD player market- So is Toshiba
Philips - same- NEC same

Matsushita - owners of JVC, the inventor of VHS (and Sony made Betamax - so Blu-ray has the inventors of both VHS and Betamax behind it!)- So?

HP - Apple partner, huge in the Windows industry- Not likely

Hitachi, Sharp - major TV makers- What's that have to do with getting movies out in HDTV?

Pioneer - yes, the big LaserDisc player (a THIRD historical format whose main backer is behind Blu-ray)- So what studio does Pioneer own? 0

TDK - media company, so there will be discs- But how much?

Thomson - RCA. Okay, so it doesn't mean much but it's more on the list-Thomson is initially going to support both formats. They had a press release on it I believe.

Now tell me - with those industry heavyweights (that is, all the industry heavyweights essentially) backing Blu-ray, how could it NOT be the winner

Because you are making a huge blunder in thinking that the key to platform victory is hardware resellers. Nay, the key to victory is having the most content. When Joe Public walks into Best Buy he doesn't give a **** what Dell or HP or Apple likes or puts in their computer. He wants to know if he can get his favorite movies in HD. Thus it is the content that drives a product followed closely by price. As of TODAY HD-DVD has more content announced than Blu-Ray and looks to be the price leader. You've given me a bunch of fluff.

GFLPraxis
Mar 11, 2005, 01:30 AM
And while there are 100 supporting blu-ray, IIRC there was 230 supporting HDDVD.

eXan
Mar 11, 2005, 01:44 AM
The Blu-ray Disc Association announced today (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2005/mar/10blu-ray.html) that Apple has become a member of the consortium's Board of Directors.



Blu-ray is a next-generation optical disc format being developed for High Definition video and high-capacity software applications. A Blu-ray disc will be able to hold up to 50GB of data (double layer).

During the MacWorld Expo SF Keynote speech (http://www.macrumors.com/events/mwsf2005.html) Steve Jobs described 2005 as "the year of High Definition Video" and introduced HD video support into iMovie and Final Cut Express. Sony also demonstrated a HD Video camera at the keynote speech. The missing link has been the consumer's ability to export HD video off their Mac. It appears Blu-ray will be the technology and we can expect iDVD and burning support in the future.

Good news ;)

TrenchcoatJedi
Mar 11, 2005, 01:47 AM
Why doesn't the government just step in and tell us which format we should use?

Seriously though. This infighting is getting no where. Sony and Toshiba need to sit down and come up with a format that suits all needs. I don't remember this nonsense happening when the CD was first created.

Lacero
Mar 11, 2005, 02:02 AM
I don't remember this nonsense happening when the CD was first created.

Yeah. I don't remember it happening to vinyl or 8-track, but I guess those are disruptive technologies, so no one knew what to make of them.

JFreak
Mar 11, 2005, 02:02 AM
Sony - first HD camcorder-- Wrong JVC created the HDV format and the GR-HD1 was first the consumer HD.

you put that "consumer" there all by yourself. it was originally stated that sony created the first hd camcorder, which is true. that was a sony hdw700, a 60i camcorder recording onto hdcam format - and this was followed by hdw700a which conform to 1920x1080 standard and was used by george lucas in 1997.

Lacero
Mar 11, 2005, 02:07 AM
You're both wrong. The first HD camcorder came from the labs of Japan's NHK broadcast division which used the MUSE system.

rt_brained
Mar 11, 2005, 02:10 AM
The Blu-Ray CD can theoretically hold 50GB of data vs. the 30 GB on the HD-DVD. The companies behind the Blu-Ray is also significant, they include: Dell Inc.; Hewlett Packard Company; Hitachi, Ltd.; LG Electronics Inc.; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.; Panasonic (Matsushita Electric); Pioneer Corp.; Royal Philips Electronics; Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.; Sharp Corp.; Sony Corp.; TDK Corp.; Thomson; Twentieth Century Fox; and Walt Disney Pictures and Television.Hold on, hold on, hold on…Apple and Sony have signed on to support the same tech standard??

Could someone do me a favor and check the current temperature in Hell?

TMay
Mar 11, 2005, 02:22 AM
After reading all of the comments (yada, yada) I am struck by how Nutinfutz's arguments finally convinced me. With but a few exceptions, all of the content producers, and I am including the hardware and software folks here, have sided with Blu-ray.

Toshiba I will grant is a solid hardware company, but, the four major studios backing HD-DVD don't actually create any content, but merely fund and distribute the creations of others. So, fully confident of the success of HD-DVD, these same studios have announced a grand total of 89 titles, all priced considerably higher than DVD titles, and not, albeit due to media cost.

You would think that with the ease of duplication, and the pent up demand from consumers, that the studios would want to flood the market with content and players. But, studios are very conservative, as is HD-DVD, and frankly, I don't know many buyers that are dying to be on the bleeding edge of this latest standards battle. Most, and I include myself, are quite happy with the DVD format and content at this point in time.

HD-DVD may be out of the gate a bit earlier and pick up some early adopters, but, ultimately, it will be content creators (indies, professional and consumer) that will decide this one, and capacity and bandwidth favor Blu-ray.

bertagert
Mar 11, 2005, 02:39 AM
Nuthin,

Looks like you're trying to win this battle on your own. After reviewing many pages on this topic, I have to point out a few more things.

1. Blu-ray doens't just go to 54GB..it has the ability to go up to 100-200GB. This won't happen at first but will in the future.

2.What are feature films suddenly going to move to 4 hr play times? The feature film part might not go bigger but the add-ons that you haven't thought about might. We didn't have all the added stuff on DVD's when VHS was out, but we do now. Think about what you could add on with even more space available to you. Games, etc.

3. About the scratching of the discs....blue laser discs such as the Blu-ray Disc, etc., with their larger capacity (and shorter recording wavelength), scratches, grime, dust, etc. on the recording surface (i.e., the surface irradiated by the laser beam) can create even more serious problems than on the DVD. With DURABIS, these problems have been addressed even to a greater degree than anticipated. And as the Blu-ray disc is a "bare" disc (not encased in a cartridge), technology such as DURABIS, etc., that reinforces the disc recording surface will be essential to resist scratches and finger print smudges. TDK (http://www.tdk.co.jp/teaah01/aah14600.htm)

Now, with that said, the fight isn't between us forum members on which one will win. That will come down to the movie studios. I just don't want you waste more time typing when this is completely out of your control. Sit back, relax, and wait a year till you have a better idea of who will truely come out on top.

Platform
Mar 11, 2005, 03:00 AM
Yes let's have Blue Ray :D

I just hope that it would come on the next rev of PM's and iMac's :D

giffut
Mar 11, 2005, 04:40 AM
At CeBit in Hannover/Germany Toshiba shows off a prototype of a slimline notebook formfactor HD-DVD drive.

And regarding porn I read a couple of week ago that already someone of the big porno business figures is producing the first porn HD movie and it is meant to be put on BlueRay discs.

JFreak
Mar 11, 2005, 04:49 AM
At CeBit in Hannover/Germany Toshiba shows off a prototype of a slimline notebook formfactor HD-DVD drive.

not interested until they get a working slim-line slot-load drive in production ;)
(and ready to installed to a new powerbook. or better yet, retro-fitted to an old one...)

groov'
Mar 11, 2005, 06:11 AM
Originally Posted by Lacero
Ok what of holographic DVDs that can hold 1 TB of data? Any news?

Still a few years off.


Forget Blue Ray and HDVD if you're seriously into datastorage. Within 2 years we'll be only talking about holodisk with it's Terabyte, Pentabyte and Exabyte storage-possibility on 1 small disk.

From the interesting pages at Colossal Storage:

"Breakthru ! 3D Atomic Holographic Optical Data Storage Nanotechnology

Rewritable 3D Volume Holographic Removable Disk / Tape / Drum / Card Data Storage is a new frontier.

5 exabytes of new data is generated every year world wide and growing !

The history of Storage Past, Present, and Future by C David Wright University of Exeter .

Colossal Storage Corporation has dominant patents the first patents issued in any field that details a totally new concept for a Ultra-Violet/Deep Blue Laser integrated semiconductor R/W Head. The read/write head used for non-contact rewritable digital data to a ferroelectric optical holographic drive.

Colossal Storage wants its Rewritable 3D Volume Atomic Holographic Removable Optical Storage NanoTechnology to be an " ALL IN ONE " Storage Solution replacing Ram Drives, Ovonic Drives, Flash Drives, 2D Optical Drives(phase change/MO DVD), Video Disk Drives, iVTR Drives, Blu-Ray, EVD, Tape Drives, AFM/ATF and Hard Drives for " ALL IN ONE " complete hardware storage solution.

Colossal's Licensed Nanotechnology will allow the company to be a yearly Multi Billion Dollar disruptive, exotic, and cutting edge company.

Al Shugart , founder of Seagate, the world's largest Disk Drive company says,"I don't understand all of Michael's technology but I know this is the way to go for the storage industry."

Data Shelf Life of Today's data storage is 1 to 5 years for DVD, CD, Blu-Ray. Magnetic tape products like disk drives, tape, and film have a shelf life from 3 to 7 years. Colossal Storage Atomic Holographic Optical Storage will have Almost a Limitless data storage shelf life of 100 years or more.

Rewritable Atomic Holographic Storage Using Reprogrammable " Atomic Switch's " will dramatically improve applications like 6,840 raw uncompressed high quality Video/TV hours, or 2,100,000 chest x-rays, or nearly 10,000,000 high-resolution images, or 30,000 four-drawer filing cabinets of documents, or , or 20,000 DVD'S Worm's , or 4,000 BLU-Ray Worm disk's, or 100 - 100 gigabyte disk drives on ONE 10 Terabyte 3.5 in. removable disc."

What are the Major Improvements to Storage Technology ;

- will have highest NLO analog / digital / optical capacity available
- will have lowest cost per gigabyte
- will have lowest power requirement per gigabyte
- will have longest archive shelf life of any data storage media, 100 years
- will have widest environmental conditions and tolerances
- will be only technology that scales from nano to macro solutions
- will have most reliable removable read / write media available
- will have highest bandwidth data transfer potential
- will be direct replacement for hard disk drives
- will not be effected by extreme high energy Cosmic Rays
i.e. Solar Flares and Solar Winds for Moon / Mars Exploration
- will be nuclear/cosmic radiation hardened capable

One 10 Terabyte to 10 Petabyte and beyond 3.5 in FEdisk would be EQUAL 1,000 to 100,000 Times the Storage Capacity of Blu-Ray, Disk Drives, or Tape Drive.

Thats 1,000 times any State of the Art hard disk technology with 100 Gigabytes on one disk. Hard drive technology will never exceed 500 Gigabytes on a disk.

Atomic Holographic optical image data storage bandwidth is 400,000 times faster than binary bit text processing bandwidths used in todays storage technology.

Storage gets serious in 2005

Hard drives aren't keeping up with today's data needs. Today's large 300 and 400 gigabyte (GB) hard drives are easily filled to capacity by digital photos, increasingly large audio files, and video. Some computer users attempt to cope with the problem by stuffing multiple hard drives into their PCs. But there is a limit to the number of hard drives a PC can operate and many are finding the 4.7 gigabyte DVD is just not large enough.

Present day storage technology CAN NOT keep pace with the data storage demands of the world's appetite !
300 Million Hard Drives and 235 Million Optical drives were produced in 2004.

Most all Phase Change media uses ferroelectric Ge2Sb2Te5 material. The DVD/CD/MO/Blu-Ray Phase Change companies didn't know the media they were using was ferroelectric but only knew if they heated it up and cooled it down something happened to the surface of the material.

Colossal Storage will be the only drive in the world that will be able to read any phase change disk with the capability of overwriting or infinitely rewriting data to any phase change disk by changing the internal molecular structure of the polarized atom dipole geometry without heat and cooling.

3 of America's Top Universities and Scientist are working on completion " Proof of Concept " of ferroelectric materials used in the patented UV Atomic holographic Optical Storage Disk Drive.

Solid State Drives will Cost over $ 25.00 a Gigabyte verus the Hard Drive $ 1.00 to $ 9.00 a Gigabyte versus Atomic Holographic Drive $ 0.08 a Gigabyte."


Read more at http://colossalstorage.net/home_diskdrive.htm

tny
Mar 11, 2005, 06:18 AM
Because you are making a huge blunder in thinking that the key to platform victory is hardware resellers. Nay, the key to victory is having the most content. When Joe Public walks into Best Buy he doesn't give a **** what Dell or HP or Apple likes or puts in their computer. He wants to know if he can get his favorite movies in HD. Thus it is the content that drives a product followed closely by price. As of TODAY HD-DVD has more content announced than Blu-Ray and looks to be the price leader. You've given me a bunch of fluff.

Actually, the key is the cost of entry for consumers. The reason VHS won was because the VHS players were cheaper than the Sony Betamax players. The reason there are so many PCs and so few Macs is because historically PCs have been cheaper. The content producers actually wait for the bandwagon to leave and then jump on it, and thus have only a secondary effect on which format "wins" - they reinforce what has already been decided, and kill the trailing format off (or not - see the Mac). Whichever looks like they are going to have a sub-$200 player first (especially if it is backward-compatible) will get all the content producers onboard, and they will win. I don't think we'll really know the answer to this until 2008.

The reason Apple jumped on the main board so quickly isn't because of their hardware sales - it's because of their position in the entertainment industry (the importance of iTunes/iPod, and Steve Jobs' position at Pixar). The Blue-Ray bunch are probably looking to entice more content providers.

Torajima
Mar 11, 2005, 06:27 AM
Neither company will win. This is another war that is not winnable.

You couldn't be more wrong.

Folks, it really doesn't matter which format is superior. The one that saturates the market first will win this war... and this will almost certaintly be Blu-Ray. Sony's Playstation 3 will play Blu-Ray discs out of the box, and will be released next year.

Those few studios supporting HDVD will most likely switch to Blu-Ray after a few million people have bought the PS3.

Torajima
Mar 11, 2005, 06:34 AM
Well these formats aren't really designed for standard televisions anyway. "Regular" TV's would hardly see any differnence in quality when watching a HD title thats been downconverted to SD. These formats are to push HD. HD is at a crawl untill we have a use for it. For HD to catch on we need HD recording and viewing capability. For many people, the only thing you can see in HD right now is Jay Leno.

We already have HD recording... it's called the digital video recorder. One made by TIVO & DirectTV, another by Time Warner cable, and one coming soon from Voom. You can also record to your Mac or PC if you have the right hardware (a firewire cable and a firewire enabled cable box).

As for Jay Leno... last time I checked, it's not even in real High Definition. For real Hi-Def that actually looks good, watch LOST or Desperate Housewives (or watch anything on Discovery HD Theater).

groov'
Mar 11, 2005, 07:41 AM
At CeBit in Hannover/Germany Toshiba shows off a prototype of a slimline notebook formfactor HD-DVD drive.

And regarding porn I read a couple of week ago that already someone of the big porno business figures is producing the first porn HD movie and it is meant to be put on BlueRay discs.


BenQ demonstrates Blu-ray Disc triple writer BW1000 at CeBIT

BenQ unveils a series of its latest storage products, including BD Triple Writer BW1000, BD Recorder BR1000 Concept, 16X DVD Writer DW1625 with LightScribe, and Slimline 8X DVD Writer TW200D at CeBIT (Hall 21, Stand B20), March 10-16, 2005 in Hannover.

The BenQ BW1000 is a product developed by Philips & BenQ Digital Storage (PBDS), which utilizes the most advanced Philips triple-laser optical pick-up unit in which the separate blue, infra-red and red lasers share the same optical pathway to provide Blu-ray Disc read/write capabilities, as well as read/write compatibilities with DVD and CD. This innovative optical pick-up unit has a flexible architecture for future speed improvements and versatile products design. Blue laser technology applies the emitted blue-violet light with wavelength 405nm, which can read and track pitch on an optical disc. The BenQ BW1000 also provides 50 Gbytes or more of capacity recording on an optical disc to fulfill the increasing demand for large capacity digital audio, video contents storage and data archives.

More info: http://www.cdr-info.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=12848

markie
Mar 11, 2005, 07:44 AM
Hold on, hold on, hold on…Apple and Sony have signed on to support the same tech standard??

Could someone do me a favor and check the current temperature in Hell?

Apple and Sony get along quite well regarding video applications actually. And expect more collaboration between Apple and Sony soon - Steve and whatever the Sony guy's name is hinted at it in the last big keynote

mdelaney123
Mar 11, 2005, 08:15 AM
Toshiba hasn't guaranteed it but they are hinting at $1k drives at launch far more than Sony is. In fact Sony will not allude to anything pricewise and that's rather disconcerting to me. They simply do not know what they can price Blu-Ray now and feel comfortable letting the public know.

I am willing to bet that I can pick up a Blu-Ray player for $299 next Spring. Better yet it will include a KICK BUTT game system... The PS3!

groov'
Mar 11, 2005, 08:24 AM
Sony demonstrates player for Blu-ray Disc at Cebit (without cardridge)

Please translate yourselves


Die Professional Disc for Data wird in Jukeboxen zukünftig auch ohne Cartridge eingesetzt. Das spart 30 Prozent der Kosten.

Sony (Halle 2, Stand C02) zeigt auf der CeBIT einen Prototypen eines PC-Laufwerks, das Blu-ray Discs (BD), DVDs und CDs abspielen und aufnehmen kann. Die Controlerchips und den optischen Pickup-Head hat Sony eigens dafür entwickelt. Der Pickup-Head nutzt zwei Linsen, eine für die blaue Laser-Diode für die Blu-ray Disc und eine zweite für den roten und infraroten Laser der beiden Dioden für CD und DVD.

Unklar ist bisher noch, wie die Laufwerkshersteller mit dem BD-Kopierschutz umgehen. HD-Filme auf BD-ROM sind verschlüsselt und werden beispielsweise von komenden Stand-alone-Playern nur über digitale Videoschnittstellen herausgegeben, die (vor allem mit HDCP) kopiergeschützt sind. Auch im PC soll man nirgends auf die unverschlüsselten Daten zugreifen können. Ob die Daten im Laufwerk, auf einer separaten Karte mit HDMI-Anschluss oder gar auf der Grafikkarte entschlüsselt werden, ist derzeit noch nicht klar. An einer Lösung wird derzeit noch gearbeitet, sagte Sonys Produktentwickler Masashi Yoshida.


Für das BD-Laufwerk hat Sony einen Pickup-Head mit zwei Linsen und drei Dioden entwickelt.

Bei dem ausgestellten Modell handelt es sich allerdings nur um einen Dummy. Als Vorführmodell dient eine umdekorierte externe Laufwerksversion für die Professional Disc for Data mit USB-2.0-Anschluss. Nach der derzeitigen Planung soll das BD-Laufwerk bereits Ende 2005 auf den Markt kommen. Einen Preis wollte das Unternehmen noch nicht nennen.

Das endgültige Gerät soll die BD-Scheiben nicht in einer Cartridge, sondern nackt schlucken. Dazu hat Sony eigens eine kratzresistente Beschichtung entwickelt. Diese soll auch bei der neuen Professional Disc for Data (PDD) zum Einsatz kommen -- allerdings nur für Laufwerke in Jukeboxen. Ohne die Cartridge werden die Profi-Medien nicht nur um 30 Prozent günstiger (30 bis 35 Euro statt 40 bis 45 Euro), sondern lassen sich auch leicht in DVD-Libraries einbinden.

Bei den Konsumer-Geräten sind zwei Prototypen von BD-ROM-Playern zu sehen, die erstmalig auch VC-1 und H.264/AVC dekodieren können. Die Player verzichten ebenfalls auf Cartridge-Medien und sollen bei der Markteinführung sowohl einlagige BDs mit 23 bis 27 GByte wie auch zweilagige BDs mit 50 GByte Speicherplatz abspielen können.

Dave00
Mar 11, 2005, 08:57 AM
Neither of these will catch on in the movie market, simply because regular DVD quality is more than good enough for a standard television. There's no reason for people to buy their collections all over again - DVD already gave them commentaries, cut scenes, alternate angles, etc.
Disagreed - the difference between standard DVD and HDTV is very noticeable (to me, at least). In the U.S., at least, all broadcasts are heading towards HD, and eventually they'll enforce the migration of all new TV's to HDTV. (There's already a timeframe for this, but it's behind schedule.) Once there's more content, and new TV's are all HD, people are going to wonder why their DVD's look so comparatively crappy.

You do have a point as to *when* this will happen. I would suspect that would be when price drops and government enforcement of the new standard coincide... probably in the next year or two.

Dave

Mac-Xpert
Mar 11, 2005, 09:13 AM
One point I haven't seen anyone mention here yet is that the specifications for HD-DVD-R (http://www.hddvdprg.com/hddvd/hddvd_3.html) show that there will only be a single layer disk available. So the capacity of a HD-DVD-R is only 15 GB. The Blu-ray-R disk will be available in both single and dual layer and later possibly 4 or even 8 layers, giving you at least 25 or 50 Gb of storage available. Although the rewritable HD-Disks will allow up to 34 GB of storage space, these will likely be more expensive than Blu-ray-R or HD-DVD-R disks.

So looking at this from a storage medium perspective the Blu-ray disk is a clear winner.

sinisterdesign
Mar 11, 2005, 09:26 AM
I've already seen some porn videos shot with those new Sony HDV cameras and all I can say is, mother o' mighty... Whichever format wins in the end, it's coming.

no pun intended?? :p

i'm still out on the format wars. i've been reading about both techs for a while and they have their pros & cons. yes, capacity is a HUGE factor (the whole driving force behind this format), but cost is, too. if blu-ray wins out, it's not the movie houses that are going to eat all the costs of building new production facilities, it will be the consumer.

i can't wait, though. i love my widescreen HD Wega and 5.1 Infinity surround setup (http://international.infinitysystems.com/homeaudio/products/category/newkappa_series.asp?language=ENGLISH) and they're begging for some high-def goodness.


(porn)

sinisterdesign
Mar 11, 2005, 09:30 AM
Sony demonstrates player for Blu-ray Disc at Cebit (without cardridge)

Please translate yourselves
from Sherlock:

"The Professional Disc for DATA is inserted into Jukeboxen in the
future also without cartridge. That saves 30 per cent of the costs.

Sony (2, status C02 resounds) shows to the CeBIT prototypes of a PC
drive, Blu ray the Discs (BD), DVDs and CDs to play and take up can.
The Controlerchips and the optical Pickup Head developed Sony
especially for it. The Pickup Head uses two lenses, one for the blue
laser diode for Blu ray the Disc and second for the red and infrared
laser of the two diodes for CD and DVD.

Unclear is so far still, how the drive manufacturers deal with the BD
copy protection. Hp films on BD-ROM are encoded and for example by
komenden status alone Playern only over digital video interfaces are
given change, which (before everything with HDCP) are copy-protected.
Also in the PC one is not to be able to access anywhere the
unencrypted data. Whether the data in the drive, on a separate card
with HDMI link are decoded or on the diagram card, is at present not
yet clear. On a solution at present still, said Sonys product
developer Masashi Yoshida is operated.

For the BD drive Sony developed a Pickup Head with two lenses and
three diodes.

With the issued model it concerns however only a dummy. As display
model a umdekorierte external drive version for the Professional Disc
serves for DATA with USB-2.0-Anschluss. To present planning the BD
drive is to already come at the end of of 2005 on the market. The
enterprise did not want to call a price yet.

The final device is to swallow the BD disks not in a cartridge, but
naked. (are we talking about porn again?) In addition Sony developed especially a scratch-resistant coating. This is to come also with the new Professional Disc for DATA (PDD) to the application -- however only for drives into Jukeboxen. Without the cartridge will the professional media only around 30 per cent more favorably (30 to 35 euro instead of 40 to 45 euro), but can also easily in DVD LIBRARIES be merged.

With the consumer he devices two prototypes from BD Rome Playern are
to be seen to, which can decode for the first time also VC-1 and
H.264/AVC. The Player does likewise without cartridge media and is to
be able to play during the introduction on the market both einlagige
BDs with 23 to 27 GByte as well as two-part (dual layer) BDs with 50 GByte storage
space."

tex210
Mar 11, 2005, 09:34 AM
wow you people can argue!

Can someone speak to hd dvd's or BD's archival quality/longetivity.
I hate the fact that Many cd's I've burned are useless now.
A raid array sounds great right about now. What I really want is solid state memory of huge proportions for cheap.

rdowns
Mar 11, 2005, 09:36 AM
Apple and Sony get along quite well regarding video applications actually. And expect more collaboration between Apple and Sony soon - Steve and whatever the Sony guy's name is hinted at it in the last big keynote

Whatever the Sony guy's name is (Kunitake Ando) no longer works for Sony. Also Sony has a new CEO. Wonder how this effects anything they may have been doing with Apple.

GFLPraxis
Mar 11, 2005, 09:42 AM
Hold on, hold on, hold on…Apple and Sony have signed on to support the same tech standard??

Could someone do me a favor and check the current temperature in Hell?

Heck, Sony CREATED Blu-ray, not just supports it ;)

GFLPraxis
Mar 11, 2005, 09:45 AM
You couldn't be more wrong.

Folks, it really doesn't matter which format is superior. The one that saturates the market first will win this war... and this will almost certaintly be Blu-Ray. Sony's Playstation 3 will play Blu-Ray discs out of the box, and will be released next year.

Those few studios supporting HDVD will most likely switch to Blu-Ray after a few million people have bought the PS3.

And the Nintendo Revolution will play HD-DVDs.

And few studios? 230 are supporting HD DVD, vs 100 for BR.

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 11:00 AM
Actually, the key is the cost of entry for consumers. The reason VHS won was because the VHS players were cheaper than the Sony Betamax players. The reason there are so many PCs and so few Macs is because historically PCs have been cheaper.

Good post tny. We both agree..earlier posts in my thread allude to exactly what you're saying here. Price is important for all parties. Lower production costs lead to better pricing to consumers eventually because there is still margin in the product.


Folks, it really doesn't matter which format is superior. The one that saturates the market first will win this war... and this will almost certaintly be Blu-Ray. Sony's Playstation 3 will play Blu-Ray discs out of the box, and will be released next year.

The 89 HD-DVD titles will ship in 2005. Note that Sony's PS3 isn't due until 2H 2006. You haven't read the thread have you? HD-DVD "is" going to be cheaper thus market penetration should be theirs to lose.


I am willing to bet that I can pick up a Blu-Ray player for $299 next Spring. Better yet it will include a KICK BUTT game system... The PS3!

Please don't lose your money. Sony hasn't even alluded to the possibility of Blu-Ray players starting at less than $1000.

So looking at this from a storage medium perspective the Blu-ray disk is a clear winner.

Mac-Xpert. Yes HD-DVD-R is only single layer. HD-DVD RW will support dual layers 32GB. Check www.hddvdprg.com for more info.

Man I'm amazed at how stubborn some of you all are. If you take an unbiased look at Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD from the perspective of watching movies HD-DVD is the CLEAR winner. If you look at the two from a computing perspective Blu-Ray is the CLEAR winner.

When debating or prognosticating it is always germaine to provide the context from which your point of view starts. HD-DVD "is" the correct solution for feature films. Blu-Ray is the correct solution for computing needs. It's blatantly obvious.

7on
Mar 11, 2005, 11:37 AM
Ummmm, how about the idea that Computer/Game makers use BD and movies will be available in HD-DVD?

What better way to prevent movie piracy? Seems most of the game and computer guys are bd anyway.

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 12:17 PM
Sony hasn't even alluded to the possibility of Blu-Ray players starting at less than $1000.

Man I'm amazed at how stubborn some of you all are. If you take an unbiased look at Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD from the perspective of watching movies HD-DVD is the CLEAR winner. If you look at the two from a computing perspective Blu-Ray is the CLEAR winner.
You missed the press release today at CeBIT that promises $300 drives when they go into mass production. The Blu-Ray RECORDERS on sale in Japan today are still extremely expensive, but the PLAYERS will be fairly cheap once they go mass market.

As for HD-DVD being better for movies... I don't get it. The video codecs are the same, the copy protection is the same, the audio is the same. What's different is that Blu-Ray is higher capacity and supports higher transfer rates which directly supports higher bit-rate encoding which directly translates to better PQ. Why wouldn't you want Blu-Ray for movies?

duanemoody
Mar 11, 2005, 12:28 PM
Ummmm, how about the idea that Computer/Game makers use BD and movies will be available in HD-DVD?

What better way to prevent movie piracy? Seems most of the game and computer guys are bd anyway.

Both standards have a provision for a chunk of data which all readers can read but Joe Sixpack's blue laser burner will NOT be able to replicate (reasons unclear). ROM media (games, software distros, movies) will come with this "mark of cain" and supposedly be unreadable without it -- from a simple "rip and burn .iso" standpoint. I'm guessing it's either an encryption block, a key for a scrambled VTOC, or more likely a combination of both.

Presumably it could be a sector consumer burners aren't allowed to burn (I say "allowed" because the likelihood industry would manufacture two different sets of hardware instead of a tweakable firmware setting is pretty small) and approved burning software won't support (a la the bad checksums in Playstation discs that most .iso rippers "correct" while more sophisticated cue/bin rippers do not).

Also, both standards have upped the ante in encryption keys. DVD-CSS was cracked because the entire scheme's security was dependent on all forty manufacturer keys being difficult to guess. When one proved about as hard as guessing "pencil" for your teacher's password, the entire scheme could be decoded/bypassed using it. The proposed key schemes will be more punitive to vendors whose keys are easily compromised, with the potential that after someone discovers and publishes Kyocera's key, future movie releases no longer play on Kyocera players. Of course, the answer to what the studios plan to do with the entire installed base of Kyocera users is uncertain, unless Blu-Ray/HD-DVD set top players are all going to have reprogrammable keys (which hints at the mathematical possibility of a guessable universal key all discs will honor even if it isn't registered to a particular OEM).

Studios are not so cash-strapped that retooling their production lines will cripple them. The profit margin on CDs, DVDs is even today obscene -- when I toured Sanyo's CD plant in 1988 with a Japanese Economics class, they were willing to tell us everything about their process, except when I asked what their per unit manufacturing cost was. Remember, Economics class they invited to their plant.

What nuckinfutz won't tell you is that blu-ray is a more ideal infrastructure for consumer recording (because the structure and the firmware do a better job of relocating data on disc and searching for blank space). While he's singing the songs of lazy studios making nickel and dime decisions, he's ignoring the manufacturers of set-top DVRs paying close attention to which offers consumers more features. Studios don't actually drive manufacturing standards. Yeah, Sony blew it with Betamax licensing issues. Back before most posters here were born. They also invented the 3.5" disk standard that a computer company with 2% market share nuked the 5.25" disk drive. That same "niche computer company" led the adoptions of USB and FireWire.

Not everything in consumer electronics is determined by lowest common denominator or cheapest cost, nuckinfutz.

Also remember that a disc that holds twice as much crap on it is a disc a studio can use to front-load assloads of full-length trailers. You think they don't care about that?

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 12:33 PM
Weldon

That's EXCELLENT news! I support both formats but I think HD-DVD has the best potential for movie distribution.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/GC11Dh04.html

Sony has yet to set a price for the external drive, but the company aims to sell similar drives for around US$300 by the time it begins mass-producing such products in around 2007.

Ouch 2007! That pretty much means the Playstation 3 is likely to be $499 in 2H 2006.

I expect both formats to be the same in price although HD-DVD suppliers will profit more on the media.

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 12:45 PM
And the Nintendo Revolution will play HD-DVDs.

And few studios? 230 are supporting HD DVD, vs 100 for BR.
The Nintendo Revolution will have an HD-DVD drive? I saw the press release this week about backwards compatibility with GameCube, the "broadway" CPU and the "hollywood" GPU, but I can't find anything about HD-DVD. Were you making this up?

As for studios, you'll have a hard time finding any studio that has committed to one format or the other EXCLUSIVELY. The studios are going to release movies on the format that has the biggest market. period. When you ignore the studios that are being TOLD which format to back because their parent company has a financial stake in that format, I don't think there's really anything interesting to read into studio support announcements.

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 12:50 PM
Not everything in consumer electronics is determined by lowest common denominator or cheapest cost, nuckinfutz.

Also remember that a disc that holds twice as much crap on it is a disc a studio can use to front-load assloads of full-length trailers. You think they don't care about that?

Nice post Duane.

I happen to think Blu-Ray is a phenomenal format that is perhaps just a wee bit of overkil. Sony has really glitzed the format up but I cannot help but think that in my experience, consumers value cost first and then simplicity. Blu-Ray is just not going to be as cost effective as HD-DVD but man it will put on a show if the author wants to.

I'm not afraid to see either format suceed because I'll have both. But unfortunately there is no way to avoid a format war and I don't think Blu-Ray's strengths exceed the setup that Sony is causing on the adoption of HD media.

DVD-9 is tight for authors but HD-DVD with the new modern codecs has a lot more breathing room. Think about it. HD-DVD has 3x the storage space yet the high efficiency codecs only require another %30 of storage. Perhaps that puts it in perspective.

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 12:53 PM
Weldon
That's EXCELLENT news! I support both formats but I think HD-DVD has the best potential for movie distribution.
Ouch 2007! That pretty much means the Playstation 3 is likely to be $499 in 2H 2006.
I expect both formats to be the same in price although HD-DVD suppliers will profit more on the media.
Best potential for movie distribution? What does that mean? You think there is some inherent advantage to HD-DVD? Or are you just talking about production costs?

I would fully expect PS3 to be more than $299. I've seen predictions from industry watchers for $499. I think that's a likely target.

So you're buying into the argument that HD-DVD discs are going to be cheaper to make? I think it's too early to tell. Sure, the equipment companies SAY you can retrofit/convert a DVD production line to HD-DVD, but at least one of the major replicators has said that they are going to build a whole new facility anyways. Sony runs one of the biggest replicators on the planet. I would fully expect them to drive Blu-Ray costs down over time. I think that we should ignore blue-sky predictions of cost that are based on total market dominance and huge economies of scale until they actually build a mass market for the product.

duanemoody
Mar 11, 2005, 01:04 PM
Nice post Duane.

I happen to think Blu-Ray is a phenomenal format that is perhaps just a wee bit of overkil. Sony has really glitzed the format up but I cannot help but think that in my experience, consumers value cost first and then simplicity. Blu-Ray is just not going to be as cost effective as HD-DVD

This isn't a democracy. We don't determine standards, the manufacturers do (by their cunning and by their stupidity).

but man it will put on a show if the author wants to.

If both formats fully support MPEG-4's Flash-like interactive functionality (vector graphics, hot regions, talking head avatars) it won't matter which kind of media it's burned on to.

I'm not afraid to see either format suceed because I'll have both. But unfortunately there is no way to avoid a format war and I don't think Blu-Ray's strengths exceed the setup that Sony is causing on the adoption of HD media.

I'll repeat myself, paraphrasing Peter Gethers, someone who's worked in both Random House and Hollywood. Studios' profit margins on consumer entertainment media are obscene for a reason. In the parable of the ant and the grasshopper, they use the ant's long-term economic perspective. Individual and short-term losses are inevitable; it's long term profitability that counts. If they charged us the two or three bucks it costs them (tops) to manufacture DVDs, they couldn't afford to absorb flicks like "Gigli" or the thousands of copies of Kelly Clarkson CDs that end up in cut-out bins.

DVD-9 is tight for authors but HD-DVD with the new modern codecs has a lot more breathing room. Think about it. HD-DVD has 3x the storage space yet the high efficiency codecs only require another %30 of storage. Perhaps that puts it in perspective.

Both formats use the same codecs and have for months. You know this.

Swift
Mar 11, 2005, 01:08 PM
I don't get it, surely it's best to have all bases covered. But then, Apple did do the dirty against DVD+R, so *shrug*.

I don't know about you, but it depends on which Superdrive you have. Increasingly, DVD writers are both +/-, so modern Macs support both. I bought a new DVR-108 Dual Layer +/- recorder for my G5, and it works like a champ on both media.

At the time Apple chose DVD-R, manufacturers were pushing that one or the other become the standard. They had to choose one. By a narrow margin, the -R drives were more compatible with the standalone DVD players of the day. So they picked one. It's not a beta vs. VHS deal. Both DVD blanks can be recorded by the new recorders. Hurray! And I bought a new player for under $80 that plays everything.

In the future, another format war is coming, unless one side or the other realizes they're in business for customers, not peons. I think Apple has to choose what will be best for its computer users/digital hub owners, and that's plainly Blu-Ray.

In the end, maybe DVD recorders of the future will be able to play or record many kinds of disc. HD-DVD, because of its studio backers, may even predominate in the marketing-dominated world of DVD releases. Remember, this is a market segment that wants encryption, region blocking, and dumb players in North America that don't understand PAL/NTSC: everything to maximize the grosses on the first week in the theaters and the first week on DVD.

Normal people, meanwhile, want flexibility, storage and open functionality.

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 01:16 PM
Best potential for movie distribution? What does that mean? You think there is some inherent advantage to HD-DVD? Or are you just talking about production costs?

Weldon I don't "think" there's an advantage it's a fact.

From the HD-DVD Promotion Group (http://www.hddvdprg.com/hddvd/hddvd_2.html)

Advantages of common disc structure

The shared disc structure of HD DVD and DVD offers numerous advantages to consumers and manufacturers alike. Full backward compatibility allows consumers to enjoy their current DVD library and crystal-clear HD video on the same HD DVD player. DVD disc replicators can utilize their current production equipment with only minor modifications and quickly establish a worldwide manufacturing infrastructure to sustain HDDVD software business development. Moreover, the simple structure of a single-lens optical head that can accommodate both red and blue laser diodes will realize compact systems.

My emphasis added.

Real World example:

89 Titles announced
Toshiba execs talking price. $1000 for a player.
Half Height HD-DVD drive announced.

Next

Most excellent and unbiased article on the two formats (http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186/4)

The advantage in this case goes to HD-DVD because of the similarity to the current DVD manufacturing processes. This makes it less expensive to adapt the current production lines for producing HD-DVD’s. Memory Tech has created a new production line, which can be adapted to produce HD-DVDs in 5 minutes, and this manufacturing line can make 1 HD-DVD in 2.8 seconds. Since the production of a HD-DVD media requires a higher technical precision and therefore a better quality control, we can also await a better quality of conventional DVD medias.

The production of Blu-ray disc will involve more cost, because the companies will have to add equipment for the cover layer portion and it’s not that easy to adapt current lines for BD production. Further, it will take about 4-5 seconds to manufacture one media. This is just slightly slower than for a HD-DVD, but multiply this difference by the millions of discs that will be produced and you can see that this becomes an important issue in the cost per unit.

Of course, one could argue that with future innovations it might be possible to reduce the production time for a single disc Blu-ray disc to match HD-DVD efficiencies. But there is still the burden for re-tooling and it seems that it is not possible to produce DVDs on BD adapted production lines. So the companies must have 2 different production lines when they want to produce DVD and BD discs.


Emphasis added so it sinks in.

Next Blu-Ray has Java support built in that requires more local flash and DRAM memory and licensing fees on top of that.

Thus my point.

within the context of movie distribution HD-DVD is the most sane and elegant solution we have. There's a legit reason why the Blu-Ray camp isn't talking pricing because they aren't at the level of HD-DVD right now without losing their shirts.

Swift
Mar 11, 2005, 01:21 PM
dude srsly,

blu-ray comes in an ugly cartridge.

sure it holds 20 gb more, but who flippin cares.

VHS is way crappier than betamax, but VHS was cheaper to make.

BANG!

VHS wins.

There was nothing, absolutely nothing, inherent in VHS that made it cheaper. It was Sony's insistence on controlling its patents, and not making them easily available to other manufacturers, that did in Beta. Once you had 20 or so companies involved in VHS, it added economies of scale. Once they gauged the market correctly, and MADE LONGER RECORDING TIMES AVAILABLE, VHS got the market.

By the way, hands up all those now screwed with extensive videotape collections of '80s crappy movies.

There's nothing inherent in Blu-Ray that makes it more expensive, after the initial capitalization is accounted for.

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 01:53 PM
Weldon I don't "think" there's an advantage it's a fact.
{deleted}
within the context of movie distribution HD-DVD is the most sane and elegant solution we have. There's a legit reason why the Blu-Ray camp isn't talking pricing because they aren't at the level of HD-DVD right now without losing their shirts.
You read a press release on the HD-DVD promotion group's web site that says HD-DVD is better than Blu-Ray, so it's a fact? That's a pretty lame argument. Let's go step-by-step...

Single Head - Sony is working on this for Blu-Ray too. No Advantage.
Titles announced - no one is exclusive. Sony controls a larger library. Even the article you referenced indicated 40% vs 35% committed to each format. No Advantage.
Sony is talking $300. Half-height is coming for Blu-Ray. BenQ is showing PC prototypes. No Advantage.
Manufacturing time - let's wait for real mass production before we declare a winner. I'll concede advantage to HD-DVD.
Different manufacturing lines - one of the two largest replicators has already said they expect to run different lines for DVD and HD-DVD anyways. No advantage.
licensing costs - Advantage HD-DVD.

What you didn't talk about is the fact that all the CE companies and computer companies are on board with Blu-Ray. Who's going to make all these HD-DVD players? Toshiba all by their lonesome? How is that going to drive prices down for players faster than Blu-Ray with several large CE manufacturers? You didn't talk about how all the computer companies are going to use Blu-Ray. PS3 is going to use Blu-Ray. Who's using HD-DVD?

Your last statement is ridiculous. HD-DVD isn't anywhere with pricing yet either. Sure, they issue press releases saying that they are cheaper - but what else do they have to talk about? Blu-Ray is technically superior and has more industry support.

TrenchcoatJedi
Mar 11, 2005, 02:15 PM
I would fully expect PS3 to be more than $299. I've seen predictions from industry watchers for $499. I think that's a likely target.

Then the Xbox 360 or whatever they're calling it has won the next console war already. Seriously. I've read that the HD-less Xbox 360 is going to debut around $250. When you go into Circuit City and they have Xbox 360 and PS3 next to each other with a $250 price difference, MS has already one. If the Xbox has HD-DVD support and there is content, Sony is in trouble.

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 02:25 PM
Then the Xbox 360 or whatever they're calling it has won the next console war already. Seriously. I've read that the HD-less Xbox 360 is going to debut around $250. When you go into Circuit City and they have Xbox 360 and PS3 next to each other with a $250 price difference, MS has already one. If the Xbox has HD-DVD support and there is content, Sony is in trouble.
Xbox 2 isn't likely to have HD-DVD support. And certainly not at $250. They have been saying that they think it's too expensive for a game console and DVD-9 still offers a good amount of storage. The same analyst that predicted Sony might reach $499 figured that Xbox 2 might go for $350 to $400. We should know a lot more in the next 6 months.

Zigster
Mar 11, 2005, 02:27 PM
this will be one of the most interesting battles of the coming year. I am rooting for Blu-ray, because of superior technology, but that doesn't mean it will win.

I suspect next generation players will have to play both mediums for a while. But when I buy an mini- HD cam coming from Panasonic, I want my Blu-Ray recorder to be ready at $400.!!

nuckinfutz
Mar 11, 2005, 02:49 PM
Your last statement is ridiculous. HD-DVD isn't anywhere with pricing yet either. Sure, they issue press releases saying that they are cheaper - but what else do they have to talk about? Blu-Ray is technically superior and has more industry support. You didn't talk about how all the computer companies are going to use Blu-Ray. PS3 is going to use Blu-Ray. Who's using HD-DVD? Sony is talking $300. Half-height is coming for Blu-Ray. BenQ is showing PC prototypes. No Advantage. You read a press release on the HD-DVD promotion group's web site that says HD-DVD is better than Blu-Ray, so it's a fact? That's a pretty lame argument. Let's go step-by-step...

So they are going to lie about the directory structure matching DVD and the optical assembly supporting blue and red lasers?

Single Head - Sony is working on this for Blu-Ray too. No Advantage.
We know Blu-Ray is going to have backwards compatibility for red laser. But their solution will be tacked on. The beauty of HD-DVD is that the numerical aperture of DVD and HD-DVD is very similar thus they can make a nice small and efficient single-lens assembly that supports both. Blu-Rays NA is designed to work with a protection layer .1mm and not .6. Whatever they have done is increasing the cost.

Titles announced - no one is exclusive. Sony controls a larger library. Even the article you referenced indicated 40% vs 35% committed to each format. No Advantage.

I'm not claiming that having the studio is an absolute advantage. My take home message is that HD-DVD is easier and cheaper to produce and this is manifested by the early announcement of titles to be available this year. I fully expect to see some studios that are in the Blu-Ray camp making HD-DVDs in time and vice versa. The 89 titles are a testament to the fact that HD-DVD can be pressed with little modifications to the production line that cranks out DVDs. In that scope which is far more narrow than yours it is indeed an HD-DVD advantage. You're arguing for a format that hasn't announced 1 title. I find that rather funny.


Sony is talking $300. Half-height is coming for Blu-Ray. BenQ is showing PC prototypes. No Advantage.

Yes they're talking $300 in 2007!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/GC11Dh04.html
Sony has yet to set a price for the external drive, but the company aims to sell similar drives for around US$300 by the time it begins mass-producing such products in around 2007.

Somehow you guys got that confused with an actual launch product. Again funny.

Different manufacturing lines - one of the two largest replicators has already said they expect to run different lines for DVD and HD-DVD anyways. No advantage.

Do you mean Blu-Ray. I can easily see dedicated HD-DVD lines because that line has the capability to be quickly retrofitted for DVD production as well. What I don't see is a bunch of excitement regarding adding Blu-Ray lines that need to support the TDK coating so that discs don't go up in smoke from a small scratch.

What you didn't talk about is the fact that all the CE companies and computer companies are on board with Blu-Ray. Who's going to make all these HD-DVD players? Toshiba all by their lonesome?

Being in the Blu-Ray camp does not preclude any manufacturer from shipping drives. There will be plenty of hardware that comes from beyond Toshiba NEC.

You didn't talk about how all the computer companies are going to use Blu-Ray. PS3 is going to use Blu-Ray. Who's using HD-DVD?


I haven't because what Dell, Apple and HP do is inconsequential to what Hollywood needs. I've always stated that Blu-Ray is a superior format for computing needs but that HD-DVD is the best solution for distributing movies. One product cannot satisfy both markets in the best manner IMO.


Your last statement is ridiculous. HD-DVD isn't anywhere with pricing yet either. Sure, they issue press releases saying that they are cheaper - but what else do they have to talk about? Blu-Ray is technically superior and has more industry support.

That's the same tired Blu-Ray chant that we keep hearing. You guys love to ignore the information regarding production costs in time and process. When Toshiba comes out and says "We'll have players for $1000 and we have 89 titles coming in 2005" you guys conveniently ignore that and champion a format that has done neither. Rather daft I might say.

I'm confident that I'm right and you all are wrong. Actions are louder than words and Sony's reticence to talk pricing tells me all I need to know.

Nice product...too expensive.

ASP272
Mar 11, 2005, 02:56 PM
I think both formats should be developed because they both have their strengths. We just need the player industry to create dual laser players to support both discs. Personally, I like the fact that BR holds so much more, with the potential to hold the Lord of the Rings size movies in HD on one disc! Now that would be cool. I think Apple is backing BR because of their partnership with Sony in HD, and for the larger capacity. Plus, Blue Ray is a cool name, and Apple likes cool. :cool:

duanemoody
Mar 11, 2005, 03:11 PM
I don't get it, surely it's best to have all bases covered. But then, Apple did do the dirty against DVD+R, so *shrug*.

That was a software thing in iDVD, not a limitation of the OS or the SuperDrive (Disk Utility merrily duped iDVD-burned -Rs to +Rs with zero compatibility issues). Apple fixed it in iLife '05. Sorry it took everyone an extra forty minutes to burn a -R.

Let's agree to either quit quoting this or acknowledge it was a problem for a whole thirteen months (give or take).

weldon
Mar 11, 2005, 03:30 PM
We know Blu-Ray is going to have backwards compatibility for red laser. But their solution will be tacked on. The beauty of HD-DVD is that the numerical aperture of DVD and HD-DVD is very similar thus they can make a nice small and efficient single-lens assembly that supports both. Blu-Rays NA is designed to work with a protection layer .1mm and not .6. Whatever they have done is increasing the cost.
We don't know that the optical pickup is going to cost more. What we do know is that both camps are working on a single head system to keep costs down. I want to talk about real advantages of each format. I think your argument boils down to "Blu-ray is superior, but HD-DVD says that they will be cheaper." My argument is "Blu-ray is superior and we don't know about pricing yet."
I'm not claiming that having the studio is an absolute advantage. My take home message is that HD-DVD is easier and cheaper to produce and this is manifested by the early announcement of titles to be available this year. I fully expect to see some studios that are in the Blu-Ray camp making HD-DVDs in time and vice versa. The 89 titles are a testament to the fact that HD-DVD can be pressed with little modifications to the production line that cranks out DVDs. In that scope which is far more narrow than yours it is indeed an HD-DVD advantage. You're arguing for a format that hasn't announced 1 title. I find that rather funny.
The announcement of 89 titles indicates that Time-Warner financially benefits from HD-DVD and wants to hype the format. Nothing more. We all assume that the Sony library and MGM library is going to be released on Blu-Ray. I don't think the 89 titles announcement is significant at all. If Sony announced a list of 2000 titles to come out 2006 would anybody care? It would be a non-event because we know that those studios are financially tied to companies that control the competing formats.

Yes they're talking $300 in 2007!
And Toshiba is talking $1000 by end of 2005. So what? All I'm saying is that we can't give an advantage to either side yet. Of course, there are Blu-Ray recorders out now (that won't be able to play BD-ROM) and there are no HD-DVD drives at all.

Somehow you guys got that confused with an actual launch product. Again funny.
I'm just responding to your argument that Toshiba's and Time-Warner's announcements are significant. If you want to talk HD-DVD announcements, I'll share some from the other side. Mostly, I advocate that we wait for real product.
Do you mean Blu-Ray. I can easily see dedicated HD-DVD lines because that line has the capability to be quickly retrofitted for DVD production as well. What I don't see is a bunch of excitement regarding adding Blu-Ray lines that need to support the TDK coating so that discs don't go up in smoke from a small scratch.
No, I mean HD-DVD. One of the largest DVD replicators has said that they are going to build a brand new line dedicated to HD-DVD. They won't be switching back and forth. I think the equipment manufacturers tried to tout that as an advantage but in practical terms, no one is going to use it. The coating thing is interesting. It might be great, or it might be a total disaster for Blu-ray.
Being in the Blu-Ray camp does not preclude any manufacturer from shipping drives. There will be plenty of hardware that comes from beyond Toshiba NEC.
Support? It does create problems because a lot of CE companies are lined up against Toshiba, NEC, and Sanyo.
I haven't because what Dell, Apple and HP do is inconsequential to what Hollywood needs. I've always stated that Blu-Ray is a superior format for computing needs but that HD-DVD is the best solution for distributing movies. One product cannot satisfy both markets in the best manner IMO.
I just plain disagree here. I think Hollywood needs a market to sell content to. Computer maker adoption of Blu-Ray is going to increase the number of devices capable of movie playback and increase the market for Hollywood. That is of consequence. I also think that DVD did a fine job of meeting needs of Hollywood and PC makers at the same time. Are you arguing that two formats is better than one? I think the competition between them is good for now, but the industry will consolidate around one format because that will be more efficient in the long run.
That's the same tired Blu-Ray chant that we keep hearing. You guys love to ignore the information regarding production costs in time and process.
I'm not trying to ignore it. I am saying that we don't have any real info on costs yet. I've already challenged your assertion that replicators are going to save money by switching back and forth between DVD and HD-DVD on the same line.
When Toshiba comes out and says "We'll have players for $1000 and we have 89 titles coming in 2005" you guys conveniently ignore that and champion a format that has done neither. Rather daft I might say.
OK, which is it? Are future announcements meaningful or not? I'm not trying to ignore the announcement of the player or the titles. Interesting sure, but I just don't think it's that meaningful. The Sony and BenQ announcements this week are interesting too. I'm not going to give an advantage to either format because of some announcements almost a year away from real product.
I'm confident that I'm right and you all are wrong. Actions are louder than words and Sony's reticence to talk pricing tells me all I need to know.
We're still a ways away. I would suggest we wait and see on costs and pricing. I'm sure that the format competition is going to be good for consumer pricing. I also know that Blu-ray offers superior features for movies.

wdlove
Mar 11, 2005, 03:39 PM
My prayer is that Apple will make a decision on this prior to my next purchase of a Mac. Would like to have the technology that will last.

Lacero
Mar 11, 2005, 03:43 PM
The fallout from this war won't be seen until at least 2007, when it becomes clear which is the dominant format. Each side will fight to the last drop of blood, since there are billions of dollars at stake. Doesn't look good for the consumers.

GFLPraxis
Mar 11, 2005, 05:47 PM
The Nintendo Revolution will have an HD-DVD drive? I saw the press release this week about backwards compatibility with GameCube, the "broadway" CPU and the "hollywood" GPU, but I can't find anything about HD-DVD. Were you making this up?

As for studios, you'll have a hard time finding any studio that has committed to one format or the other EXCLUSIVELY. The studios are going to release movies on the format that has the biggest market. period. When you ignore the studios that are being TOLD which format to back because their parent company has a financial stake in that format, I don't think there's really anything interesting to read into studio support announcements.

It's rumored according to the leaks.
Ugh, I misposted. I meant to say, "The Revolution is supposed to have HD-DVD, not WILL". My apologies.

Since HD-DVD is easy to make backwards compatible with DVDs (and GameCube disks are mini dvds)...and since their competitor Sony owns Blu-ray...and they're probably going to have a $300 to $400 price point...HD-DVD makes much more sense than anything else.

Sped
Mar 12, 2005, 12:28 AM
My guess is that the format the the PORN producers pic will win.

That is the funniest thing I've heard all day. Good one...

Sped
Mar 12, 2005, 12:34 AM
I've already seen some porn videos shot with those new Sony HDV cameras and all I can say is, mother o' mighty.

Well that's the second funniest thing today.

jaronimo
Mar 12, 2005, 03:04 AM
its useless to declare winners. Anythings gonna be cheap when it's in mass production. So this is not a fact to argue about. I would say, first come, first serve. Who get his drives first in the PCs around the world will be the winner. So here's a point. Apple will introduce Dual 3.5GHz-Macs with Blu-Ray Drives this year (remember? year of the HD) to get the content out of the mac. And after that we can talk again and see, wheter HP, Dell and all the others will chose BR or HD-DVD. But remember, Apple is the trendsetter and Sony is still very powerful.

Whatever, hold your breath.

wdlove
Mar 12, 2005, 10:33 AM
The fallout from this war won't be seen until at least 2007, when it becomes clear which is the dominant format. Each side will fight to the last drop of blood, since there are billions of dollars at stake. Doesn't look good for the consumers.

Two years is a long time. Wonder how long it took them to decide on one format for the VCR. :(

Lacero
Mar 12, 2005, 12:59 PM
HD DVD and Blu-Ray media prices won't come down to least $2/piece well until 2010. It took about 5 years from DVDs introduction before the prices dropped to $1/piece for premium DVD discs. I should expect the same for HD and blu-ray as well.

Ted Witcher
Mar 12, 2005, 01:48 PM
I'm not sure I understand why nut and others keep arguing that Blu-ray hardware will cost more. To Sony, maybe, but it's doubtful that means much to me... they're going to have to price competitively with HD DVD (especially since it appears they'll be last to market) and absorb the initial losses. So this running feud about production lines and disc structure is wasted bandwidth. It is more than likely you'll see both players introduced in the $1000 range.

It would be wonderful if Blu-ray were to win, though it's too early to tell. There's no such thing as "overkill" on data storage. The additional space allows for improved PQ as well as lossless DTS -- your movies, concerts, etc. will sound better as well. HD DVD has a small advantage at this point with a more market-friendly name and a number of moderately popular titles announced. But Sony/Disney could drop a couple of Charlie's Angels, a Spiderman or two and some Pixar blockbusters and all of a sudden it's a fight again. My hope is they can get going by Christmas, but we'll see.

pubwvj
Mar 12, 2005, 03:34 PM
I'm not sure I understand why nut and others keep arguing that Blu-ray hardware will cost more. To Sony, maybe, but it's doubtful that means much to me... they're going to have to price competitively with HD DVD

It's because the movie companies don't want to spend extra cents.
If they retail a movie for $15 and the store takes 40% and the distributor takes 15% then they've got a gross margin of $6.75. Out of that they need to take marketing, production of the disks and all fixed overheads as well as royalties and the production of the actual movie if it didn't make it in the theaters. If the blank disk for Blu-ray costs them $1 more than for HD-DVD then it gives them a much slimmer margin to work with. For them, every penny matters.

On the flip side, the HD-DVD format is good enough for movies. The Blu-ray may be better but to the movie house that doesn't matter. Good enough is good enough as Boris would misquote to Natasha.

gwangung
Mar 12, 2005, 06:00 PM
It's because the movie companies don't want to spend extra cents.

You're assuming that Sony won't take a loss for the first few months or year of production.

Not sure that's warranted.

Ted Witcher
Mar 12, 2005, 06:33 PM
Yeah, I agree -- and I said that. There's a weird assumption here that Sony and others are going to pass along their initial increased costs to consumers... which wouldn't make much sense. That's the upside of competition. They're going to have to take the losses to get their product going.

In fact, who's to say that the losses aren't offset by revenue from the patent pool? You have every computer manufacturer and almost all the hardware manufacturers committed to Blu-ray, whereas only Toshiba and -- NEC, is it? -- making HD DVD players and drives.

Ted Witcher
Mar 12, 2005, 06:36 PM
It's because the movie companies don't want to spend extra cents.

Not to mention, in this case Sony is the "movie company" and the hardware manufacturer.

nuckinfutz
Mar 12, 2005, 06:58 PM
Ted,
You're correct, to the consumer the difference between a penny or two in production or the extra time it takes for a BR disc to be stamped is inconseqential. However to the studios it affects their margins. $.02 doesn't sound like much of a difference until you multiply it by a billion.

You're assuming that Sony won't take a loss for the first few months or year of production.

No it's the movie studio that takes the loss of margin. Sony isn't financing Blu-Ray folks. Each studio and hardware manufacturer fronts their own costs. I don't think many of us HD-DVD defenders are anti Blu-Ray it's just that when you get enough people screaming about how Blu-Ray is superior(which it is..but not necessarily for movies) then I'm not sure they'll understand why studios are interested in Blu-Ray. It's cost plain and simple.

Ted

Hardware is easy to make. HP, Dell and Apple don't make hardware. When have you seen a Dell ASIC chip for networking? These are computer resellers who will pimp a format until they have to move on. The person that gets screwed is YOU. How far did Apple help DVD-RAM? How was Apple's support for DVD-R instrumental in beating DVD+R. It wasn't.

the companies that matter are the Pressing Plants, the semiconducter companies that will make the encode/decode chipsets. The optical companies that will lessen the cost of the assemblies saving money. I laugh everytime someone mentions Dell and Blu-Ray. Let is not forget that Microsoft is supporting HD-DVD in Longhorn. Hell Bill Gates is personally worth more than Apple computer as a whole. Tit for tat I guess.

I'm preparing to own both formats. I love movies and I want to see them in the best light. Blu-Ray is a nice format..perhaps a bit overkill but I see both drives co-existing. If the genius engineers can work their magic we might see a universal player some day but that will require some work.

Sped
Mar 13, 2005, 12:33 AM
There's a weird assumption here that Sony and others are going to pass along their initial increased costs to consumers... which wouldn't make much sense.

You make a good point. The market sets prices - not a company's cost structure. If a company has to price their format for high definition DVD at $30 to make a profit, that's not Joe Consumer's problem.

Eventually these things will be priced like commodities just as standard definition DVDs are today. The only question is which format will win. So long as there are at least two choices, the answer to that question probably has more to do with timing, ease of use, and capability than cost. The iPod is a good example of this. Lots of us wondered if the iPod would sell when it first was released because of its cost. The reason the iPod did sell is its incredible ease of use and performance.

Rod Rod
Mar 13, 2005, 12:46 AM
In the U.S., at least, all broadcasts are heading towards HD, and eventually they'll enforce the migration of all new TV's to HDTV. (There's already a timeframe for this, but it's behind schedule.) Once there's more content, and new TV's are all HD, people are going to wonder why their DVD's look so comparatively crappy.
Incorrect. All broadcasts not "heading towards HD." "They" won't enforce migration of all new TVs to HDTV.

What is happening is a transition towards DTV (digital broadcast). DTV can be SD or HD.

maya
Mar 13, 2005, 07:48 AM
Hope this is not history repeating it's self with the DVD-RAM and then to DVD-R/RW and now DVD±R/RW.

Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD. I would not be surprised if Apple ditches Blu-Ray in a year or so for HVD. ;) :)

HVD holds far more promise for Standard-HD and Ultra-HD movies. ;) :)

wdlove
Mar 13, 2005, 01:52 PM
Hope this is not history repeating it's self with the DVD-RAM and then to DVD-R/RW and now DVD±R/RW.

Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD. I would not be surprised if Apple ditches Blu-Ray in a year or so for HVD. ;) :)

HVD holds far more promise for Standard-HD and Ultra-HD movies. ;) :)

The important thing is that there will be compatibility. It would be upsetting if Apple changed something that caused hardware to be obsolete.

Lacero
Mar 13, 2005, 02:00 PM
Early Macs shipped with DVD-RAM drives. They were mainly used as computer storage solution, not so much for broad video distribution medium. The great thing with HD DVD or blu-ray is support for legacy file formats such as UDF and ISO 9660.

Rod Rod
Mar 13, 2005, 02:25 PM
Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD.
If you call that a partnership, then Apple has the same partnership with JVC, Sharp and Canon.

Apple just made a transcoding scheme for HDV capture and a corresponding intermediate codec to handle HDV editing within iMovie HD and FCE HD. The HDV format was a joint project between Canon, Sharp, Sony and JVC.

The notion that Apple and Sony had some sort of partnership with regard to HDV is more marketing hype than reality. ;):)

EDIT: JVC created the HDV format. Sony, Canon and Sharp got on board later. The HDV logo and HDV trademarks belong to JVC and Sony.

gwangung
Mar 13, 2005, 03:03 PM
Ted,
No it's the movie studio that takes the loss of margin. Sony isn't financing Blu-Ray folks.

You get a peak at their business plan?

As originator of the format, there's nothing to stop Sony from making deals with manufacturers, rebating patent fees or other innovative financing plans to help initial manufacturers and copiers to get on their feet (particularly since Sony >>IS<< one of the studios in question). In fact, it'd be kinda stupid for Sony to allow an initial higher cost to block deployment of their property. Not sure you're looking at this creatively enough.

Lacero
Mar 13, 2005, 03:09 PM
I believe the studios are waiting for a DRM scheme that can't be easily cracked such as CSS. And something that doesn't require authentication. We all know what happened with disposable DVDs and DivX. Although by know, we hope the MPAA realizes that DRM is not effective in any way and only frustrates consumers.

maya
Mar 13, 2005, 04:04 PM
If you call that a partnership, then Apple has the same partnership with JVC, Sharp and Canon.

Apple just made a transcoding scheme for HDV capture and a corresponding intermediate codec to handle HDV editing within iMovie HD and FCE HD. The HDV format was a joint project between Canon, Sharp, Sony and JVC.

The notion that Apple and Sony had some sort of partnership with regard to HDV is more marketing hype than reality. ;):)

EDIT: JVC created the HDV format. Sony, Canon and Sharp got on board later. The HDV logo and HDV trademarks belong to JVC and Sony.

Marketing is what Apple is all about. Never forget that. ;) :) It doesn't matter to the end user who created what from donkeys ears, all that matters is that it works, cheap to buy and so forth.

Consumers are uneducated in relation to SD-DVD, HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, SD-HVD and UHD-HVD. :)

As long as they can make a back-up, burn they movies and it plays all is good. :)

maya
Mar 13, 2005, 04:06 PM
The important thing is that there will be compatibility. It would be upsetting if Apple changed something that caused hardware to be obsolete.


Hope history does not repeat itself. :(


I cam getting sick of all these optical formats that only have minor storage bumps. Lets just move to HVD at 1TB who is going to complain for some years to come. :)

weldon
Mar 13, 2005, 05:30 PM
I believe the studios are waiting for a DRM scheme that can't be easily cracked such as CSS. And something that doesn't require authentication.
The copy protection scheme has already been settled, and it's the same for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. Studios aren't waiting on this. They're waiting to see what the adoption is going to be for HD players, how to market and price new HD packaged media, and on the production side, which encoders to use, which audio format to use, and the replicator's costs and capabilities.

Rod Rod
Mar 13, 2005, 05:40 PM
Marketing is what Apple is all about.
Please . . . if that were the case, Apple would be a total failure. If Pepsi had 90%+ market share and Coke had 10%, you wouldn't praise Coke's marketing. Anyway, Apple is about more than marketing, and it's about more than the iPod (I can see that counterpoint coming, but you can't have it both ways). Just leave it at the point that the "Sony and Apple HD partnership" is a myth and a falsehood. ;):)

maya
Mar 13, 2005, 07:59 PM
Please . . . if that were the case, Apple would be a total failure. If Pepsi had 90%+ market share and Coke had 10%, you wouldn't praise Coke's marketing. Anyway, Apple is about more than marketing, and it's about more than the iPod (I can see that counterpoint coming, but you can't have it both ways). Just leave it at the point that the "Sony and Apple HD partnership" is a myth and a falsehood. ;):)

Fine they are all in the same bed. ;) :)

Though Apple is well recognized for...
and Sony is well recognized for...

that is what it comes down to...

MS and Dell are recognized for.... <--- ROTFLMAO :D

Torajima
Mar 14, 2005, 06:55 AM
The 89 HD-DVD titles will ship in 2005. Note that Sony's PS3 isn't due until 2H 2006. You haven't read the thread have you? HD-DVD "is" going to be cheaper thus market penetration should be theirs to lose.

Please don't lose your money. Sony hasn't even alluded to the possibility of Blu-Ray players starting at less than $1000.


It doesn't matter that HD-DVD will have a headstart. No one will buy the expensive hardware and expensive media (at least compared to standard DVDs) except for a few early adapters (mostly tech geeks and home theater buffs). This happens with EVERY technology.

Or do you not remeber what happened when DVD was released? Both the hardware and media was relatively expensive until the PS2 came on the scene. Heck, I know people that purchased the PS2 for it's DVD capabilities alone, since even at $299 it was one of the cheapest players on the market (not counting the crappy chinese players). After Sony sold a butt-load of PS2's, prices on DVD hardware (and eventually the DVDs themselves) started dropping rapidly.

And the PS3 will most likely have a $299 pricepoint in America (possibly a bit higher in Japan). Anyone who thinks it will be more expensive isn't familiar with the history of gaming (early rumors suggested the PS2 would have a $500 pricepoint... of course that didn't happen).

Torajima
Mar 14, 2005, 07:09 AM
And the Nintendo Revolution will play HD-DVDs.


Unfortunately, Nintendo is now irrelevant.... a non-player. They have proven that they are unable to compete in anything but the portable scene.

It's a shame too, as I've gotten more enjoyment out of my Nintendo and Sega game machines than anything released by Sony or Microsoft.

JesterJJZ
Mar 14, 2005, 04:12 PM
Unfortunately, Nintendo is now irrelevant.... a non-player. They have proven that they are unable to compete in anything but the portable scene.

I will have to strongly dissagree with that. Nintendo is more than capable in keeping up in the console wars. Nintendo still has the best games. I'll take Mario, Zelda and Metroid over GTA any day. The only thing that hinders Nintendo is the GTA audience that seems to think that the only videogames that are good are the ones where you can aimlessly go around shooting people on the street and running them over with cars. Sure I've had tons of fun with games like True Crime, but when you have a line of people out the door of Electronics Boutique waiting to buy the new GTA, that tells me there's a problem with society. Nintendo is the pioneer of all current games. They will continue to raise the bar as time goes on. Nintendo is to the videogames industry as what Apple is to the computer industry. Personally, people that bash Nintendo remind me of PC users that bash Macs out of ingorance.\

Nintendo has officially said that they are here to stay. And that the day they stop making consoles is the day that get out of games altogether.

Jovian9
Mar 15, 2005, 01:22 PM
Up until recently I really couldn't care less which format wins out. But being a fan of Apple, I would rather Blu-Ray win this battle since Apple supports it. More storage and a possible expansion to 4 layers in the future is a plus. There will always be a need for more storage.

I'm excited about these technologies b/c I can do several things with it:
1. Back-up my entire iTunes and iPhoto libraries onto 1 DVD instead of an ext FWHD
2. Back-up my entire OS install partition onto 1 DVD (and create a re-install disk with everything on it)
3. Put the entire contents of a DV tape onto 1 DVD for back-up(or 2 on an HD-DVD or 4 on a Blu-Ray DVD) and then store my DV tapes away so they are preserved
4. Entire box-sets of movies/TV shows on 1 DVD. The entire Widescreen HD Lord of The Rings 3-film extended Directors Cut Edition on 1 DVD would be awesome. Also, there are lots of television shows (Aqua Teen, Sealab, Futurama, South Park, Family Guy, Beavis & Butthead, Daria, X-Files, X-Men 90's animated, etc.) that I'd like to own on DVD....but I do not like having lots of box sets with lots of dvd's to watch these. Being able to have the entire Futurama set on 1 or 2 DVD's would be great.

wdlove
Mar 15, 2005, 03:01 PM
Up until recently I really couldn't care less which format wins out. But being a fan of Apple, I would rather Blu-Ray win this battle since Apple supports it. More storage and a possible expansion to 4 layers in the future is a plus. There will always be a need for more storage.

I'm excited about these technologies b/c I can do several things with it:
1. Back-up my entire iTunes and iPhoto libraries onto 1 DVD instead of an ext FWHD
2. Back-up my entire OS install partition onto 1 DVD (and create a re-install disk with everything on it)
3. Put the entire contents of a DV tape onto 1 DVD for back-up(or 2 on an HD-DVD or 4 on a Blu-Ray DVD) and then store my DV tapes away so they are preserved
4. Entire box-sets of movies/TV shows on 1 DVD. The entire Widescreen HD Lord of The Rings 3-film extended Directors Cut Edition on 1 DVD would be awesome. Also, there are lots of television shows (Aqua Teen, Sealab, Futurama, South Park, Family Guy, Beavis & Butthead, Daria, X-Files, X-Men 90's animated, etc.) that I'd like to own on DVD....but I do not like having lots of box sets with lots of dvd's to watch these. Being able to have the entire Futurama set on 1 or 2 DVD's would be great.

Your to do list is probably the very reason that Apple is adopting the Blue-ray technology. As long as this technology has better longevity that current DVD's, then it would be a secure backup.

Lacero
Mar 15, 2005, 03:05 PM
Blu-Ray is perfect as a mass storage medium, as price deltas in competing technologies is less affected in the computer market. As soon as the technology matures, it will be at the same price as HD DVD, and studios may back the leading format. I'd like to see blu-ray succeed, but it's most likely HD-DVD will win out in the end.

taz
Mar 15, 2005, 05:04 PM
Newbie here... I've been skimming this discussion...

Has the idea of the 3 inch disk been presented?

If Blu-Ray is able to store more data, you will be able to put the same amount of data on a smaller platter...

Image the Mini with a 3" drive? An iPod with removable disks?

What is the PSP disk format?

JesterJJZ
Mar 15, 2005, 06:46 PM
The PSP uses a UMD, another lame propriatary Sony format. Very simalr to what Gamecube uses. Basically a 3in DVD that can hold 1.5 gigs single layer. Don't remember if it can be dual layered. The sony also comes in its own caddy.

Sunrunner
Mar 17, 2005, 12:45 PM
The PSP uses a UMD, another lame propriatary Sony format. Very simalr to what Gamecube uses. Basically a 3in DVD that can hold 1.5 gigs single layer. Don't remember if it can be dual layered. The sony also comes in its own caddy.


Sony and their dang proprietary bad ideas can go pound sand. Its sinking the company, just like ATRAC sank their music players.

Sunrunner
Mar 17, 2005, 12:46 PM
Blu-Ray is perfect as a mass storage medium, as price deltas in competing technologies is less affected in the computer market. As soon as the technology matures, it will be at the same price as HD DVD, and studios may back the leading format. I'd like to see blu-ray succeed, but it's most likely HD-DVD will win out in the end.


What leads you to believe that HDDVD would win in the end exactly? Its my impression that a lot of the big players have signed onto Blu-Ray...

Rod Rod
Mar 17, 2005, 02:56 PM
What leads you to believe that HDDVD would win in the end exactly? Its my impression that a lot of the big players have signed onto Blu-Ray...

Lacero has already explained at least twice why he thinks HD-DVD will win. It shouldn't be hard to find his other posts on this subject in this thread.

DEXTERITY
Mar 17, 2005, 05:02 PM
Does anyone know if it would be possible (once apple adopts blue ray) to replace the current super drive in the Dual 2.0 G5's with a blue ray drive?
Or is it even necessary? Am I only missing out on a bigger storage medium? I Don't want to purchase a new computer just for blue ray and I just got the G5 a few months ago. Maybe an external drive would be an option..Thanks in advance.

nuckinfutz
Mar 17, 2005, 05:21 PM
Does anyone know if it would be possible once apple adopts this to replace the current super drive in the Dual 2.0 G5's with a blue ray drive? Don't want to purchase a new computer just for blue ray..

You won't see Blu-Ray computer drives until Q1 2006 at the earliest. No one really knows what the price or the requirements will be but they will be standard half-height drives.

DEXTERITY
Mar 17, 2005, 05:30 PM
thanks for the info. That's a good ways away. I guess not much to worry about.

weldon
Mar 17, 2005, 08:06 PM
You won't see Blu-Ray computer drives until Q1 2006 at the earliest. No one really knows what the price or the requirements will be but they will be standard half-height drives.
"BenQ expects to ship its BW1000 PC triple format BD/DVD/CD writer (developed by PBDS, Philips BenQ Digital Storage) before Christmas this year for about €500 according to heise.de."

Rod Rod
Mar 17, 2005, 08:12 PM
The missing link has been the consumer's ability to export HD video off their Mac.
Not exactly. iMovie HD allows you to export HD video off your Mac by recording back to HDV tape. The "missing link" has been the ability to export HD video onto an optical disc which would play back in high definition on a TV set. Another missing link in that chain has also been the availability of a set-top DVD player capable of playing HD content.

It appears Blu-ray will be the technology and we can expect iDVD and burning support in the future.
Hopefully Apple hedges its bets and signs onto the HD-DVD consortium also, at least for DVD Studio Pro. This is way more consequential than DVD±R.

Support both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Just get political on us!
Exactly.

On the contrary, they should pick a side. The faster the other format dies off, the better. Betamax was superior to VHS, but Betamax and VHS existing at the same time would have been worst of all.
Betamax lost because you could only fit one hour on a tape, whereas on VHS you could record two hours (and eventually 6 hours). JVC's licensing of VHS VCR manufacturing helped it become way less costly than Sony's Betamax decks (which had far more limited licensing). For practical purposes VHS was superior.

Your argument would be stronger if you took VHS as a positive example, because HD-DVD (like Betamax) has less capacity than Blu-Ray. As for picture quality, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray should be identical.

Anyway, Betamax morphed into Betacam SP and Digibeta for professional ENG applications, which obviously has coexisted with VHS all these years.

I'd also imagine that it would take more processing power to encode HD then what the current notebooks can supply.
Current notebooks can encode HD. It just takes more time. However, if CoreVideo offloads work to the GPU and accelerates H.264 encoding (which both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will use) maybe it won't be that bad.

Just my feeling: whoever/whichever Sony chooses will be the winner... and no, it won't happen the same beta/vhs deal... times are different
I respect this opinion. However, Sony has also chosen ATRAC.

Microsoft is to HD-DVD as Apple is to Blu-Ray. Think about it.
Which means HD-DVD will have 90%+ market penetration? You're trying to make the case that Blu-Ray will be more commercially successful and that's your final thought?

Rod Rod
Mar 17, 2005, 08:14 PM
could we also suppose Apple would have some BD as early as WWDC?
well....
comeon steve, what we need is Dual Layer DVD R!! give us native support and internal drive!!!

btw, before we could edit HD video "easily" at "entry level" iMovie, we need a HD VIDEO CAM!!! or else it would be no use...
hay, comeon SONY, make us some "entry level" HD DV, and of course, with entry level SIZE and PRICE, please!!!!
You don't need a high definition camera to create HD content on your Mac. You can make HD slideshows right now if you felt like it. Anyhow, the Sony executive at MWSF said lower priced HDV camcorders are forthcoming.

weldon
Mar 17, 2005, 08:25 PM
Anyhow, the Sony executive at MWSF said lower priced HDV camcorders are forthcoming.
Sony released new cameras at $3500 and $5000 in February. A pro-shooter acquaintance here in Denver says that they rival the $100,000 Panisonic varicam. This guy was just on a trip to Panama to do some HD documentary work using the Panasonic - he's a way more credible source than I am.

At $3500, that's pretty close to the prosumer level. I expect we'll see gear under $2000 in due time.

Rod Rod
Mar 18, 2005, 12:47 AM
Sony released new cameras at $3500 and $5000 in February. A pro-shooter acquaintance here in Denver says that they rival the $100,000 Panisonic varicam. This guy was just on a trip to Panama to do some HD documentary work using the Panasonic - he's a way more credible source than I am.

At $3500, that's pretty close to the prosumer level. I expect we'll see gear under $2000 in due time.

If you're trying to correct me, at least have your facts straight. The Sony FX1 was released in November. The Z1 came out in February.

Your pro shooter acquaintance's opinion is valuable.

Your expectation of sub-$2000 HDV gear has already been met. The going street price for a new JVC HD1 from reputable dealers (http://www.bhphotovideo.com/bnh/controller/home?O=productlist&A=details&Q=&sku=278495&is=REG) is under $2000. The eBay range is $1300-$1600.

Watch the MWSF 2005 video again. Right as Sony President Kunitake Ando exits, he promises a consumer-level, less expensive (not FX1 or Z1, but a lower tier) HDV consumer camcorder. This is around 56 or 57 minutes into the 2005 Expo Keynote (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf05/).

weldon
Mar 18, 2005, 10:01 AM
If you're trying to correct me, at least have your facts straight. The Sony FX1 was released in November. The Z1 came out in February.
I wasn't trying to correct you, I was trying to add some information on what was available now since that wasn't addressed in your post. I understand the difference between the two Sony models, I was being lazy and simplified to concentrate on the cheaper option made available in February.

Your expectation of sub-$2000 HDV gear has already been met. The going street price for a new JVC HD1 from reputable dealers (http://www.bhphotovideo.com/bnh/controller/home?O=productlist&A=details&Q=&sku=278495&is=REG) is under $2000. The eBay range is $1300-$1600.
True, true. Of course, the JVC is 720p/30 and single CCD while the Sony's are 1080i/60 and 3 CCD. I didn't mention the JVC because I haven't heard good things about it, and I was actually thinking ahead to lower priced models of the Sony cameras or 1080i cameras from other companies. I should have been more explicit.

Watch the MWSF 2005 video again. Right as Sony President Kunitake Ando exits, he promises a consumer-level, less expensive (not FX1 or Z1, but a lower tier) HDV consumer camcorder. This is around 56 or 57 minutes into the 2005 Expo Keynote (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf05/).
Yes. This is what I had in mind - lower priced versions of the 1080i 3-CCD cameras from Sony that would eventually hit $2000 or less. The JVC is a capable device, but nowhere near the quality of the Sony from what I've read.

xsedrinam
Mar 18, 2005, 10:30 AM
True, true. Of course, the JVC is 720p/30 and single CCD while the Sony's are 1080i/60 and 3 CCD. I didn't mention the JVC because I haven't heard good things about it, and I was actually thinking ahead to lower priced models of the Sony cameras or 1080i cameras from other companies. I should have been more explicit.

Check your info on the JVC. I have a JVC GY-DV300. It is designed with 3-CCD system which employs 380,000 effective pixels.
X

weldon
Mar 18, 2005, 10:44 AM
Hopefully Apple hedges its bets and signs onto the HD-DVD consortium also, at least for DVD Studio Pro. This is way more consequential than DVD±R.
This is a pretty important point. I can understand why Apple would want to pick Blu-ray for computers - HP and Dell have already signed on to Blu-ray. But even if Blu-ray is going to replace the superdirve (the super-duper-drive?) Apple's pro apps should be able to play with both formats to prepare material for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray discs, even if HD-DVD recording is done on a third-party drive or on a different system.

The video and audio codecs are essentially the same (I think there are slightly different constraints on the codecs in each format spec) but the menu systems are different. I heard of a Blu-ray demo (and saw screenshots) where they showed the ability to alpha-blend menus on top of live video. There are also internet streaming features that can be selected from on-disc menu options. Those are the kind of features that need to be incorporated into DVD Studio Pro in the future. I hope Apple is ready so that they can serve everyone in the industry.

Secretly, I hope Blu-ray just outright wins so we get a single format with higher capacity, but I clearly recognize the effect that competition has had on improving the codecs and features on both formats. Whichever format wins, we will have a much better product because of this period where they are competing with each other (and Microsoft is competing with H.264).

weldon
Mar 18, 2005, 11:01 AM
Check your info on the JVC. I have a JVC GY-DV300. It is designed with 3-CCD system which employs 380,000 effective pixels.
X
The JVC GR-HD1 has a 1/3" 1.18 megapixel progressive CCD.

http://www.jvc.com/product.jsp?modelId=MODL027075&pathId=29&page=2

Check out the price (http://www.amphotoworld.com/product.asp?id=snhdrfx1) of the Sony FX-1 at this site! I wonder where they stole it from? :)

<edit>
Lest anyone think that they should jump on this deal, please read the reseller ratings (http://www.resellerratings.com/seller1988.html) first. I don't think I would do business there.
</edit>

wdlove
Mar 18, 2005, 03:47 PM
So it sounds like we won't hear a final decision from Steve till MWSF 2006. In the case of Betamax loosing because of less capacity, then its just common sense that HD-DVD should join it in the history books. If the quality is the same then Blue-ray, is the future.

Lacero
Mar 18, 2005, 03:49 PM
JVC just came out with a new HDV camcorder with interchangeable lenses that can record 720P HD in 24P, 30P and 60P modes. Looks to be under $10K fully loaded. Another step towards a HD future.

nuckinfutz
Mar 18, 2005, 04:41 PM
JVC just came out with a new HDV camcorder with interchangeable lenses that can record 720P HD in 24P, 30P and 60P modes. Looks to be under $10K fully loaded. Another step towards a HD future.

When steve says 2005 is the year of HD he basically means from NAB 2005 and on we should see a lot more new HD products.

Apple will be forced to accept both formats really. I can't see DVD Studio Pro 5 or whatever it'll be next year supporting Blu-Ray only based on some Apple stubborness. Soon we'll be able to see how good the QT7 AVC encoder is. I need to know what bitrate AVC HD looks best in.

Mac Dummy
Mar 18, 2005, 05:32 PM
Hi all,

I've been reading all your posts and I have come to a conclusion.

I don't really care what format wins this war, Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. I think the 4 things that will drive either format to dominance are

1. COST!! - cost of manufacturing drives and media vs. what consumers will pay for them
2. Capacity- how much data will each disc hold
3. Speed- how fast will drives read/write
4. Availability

I think the first three are important right now. We saw this with the DVD format wars. Because consumers don't want to have to pay large sums of money for this technology, they want the capacity to save as much as they can to a single disc, and they want it done quickly. Gone are the days people are willing to wait. I think that is all that really matters.

intlplby
Mar 23, 2005, 04:32 AM
i don't this is a point that has been mentioned yet, but i think a lot of people are overlooking one major fact that would explain why we should go with Blu-Ray....

expandibility.

if there is an inevitible need for more and more capacity with each passing year then HD-DVD seems to be the best option for the short term. Invest money in it now, but experience much less future growth. Blu-Ray on the other hand is an investment with a much greater promise of life.

you can clearly see why the hardware and content are on opposite sides of the fence then......

the content providers (the studios) just want to get HD content out there are quickly and cheaply as possible.

the hardware camp clearly realizes that investing in HD-DVD is investing in a soon to be obsolete technology. it's clear that red lasers are near the end of their life in terms of capabilities. the only real thing breathing enough life into HD-DVD to make it able to compete with Blu-Ray now really is the better codecs. If you didn't not have a better codec than HD-DVDs inadequacy becomes far more apparent.

The best thing for everyone clearly is to see blue laser optical storage technology become the favored technology. Things will be a tad pricier in the beginning, but these really is only applicable to the consumers that are early adopters and it is not the early adopters but the mass market that determines the prevailing technology.

The hardware folks know where the real money lies.

nuckinfutz
Mar 23, 2005, 08:32 AM
the hardware camp clearly realizes that investing in HD-DVD is investing in a soon to be obsolete technology. it's clear that red lasers are near the end of their life in terms of capabilities. the only real thing breathing enough life into HD-DVD to make it able to compete with Blu-Ray now really is the better codecs. If you didn't not have a better codec than HD-DVDs inadequacy becomes far more apparent.

Weak arguement. You have based the entire premise of your post on a strawman. The "inevitable" need for more storage space. You fall into the same trap that most Blu-Ray supporters fall into. You don't know the format enought to make a cogent statement beyond "It holds more data"

I suggest you go to http://www.blu-raydisc.com/ and read up a bit more. The battle really isn't over storage size (within a movie distribution context) but rather the unique features to both platorms ie HD-DVD sharing the same file structure with DVD for lower stamping costs versus BD and it's superior authoring tools.

Not meant to be a slam but we gotta get beyond mythical "future storage" requirements as some plausible reason for BD. Read their tech info and you'll come up with better arguements.

weldon
Mar 23, 2005, 08:53 AM
the hardware camp clearly realizes that investing in HD-DVD is investing in a soon to be obsolete technology. it's clear that red lasers are near the end of their life in terms of capabilities. the only real thing breathing enough life into HD-DVD to make it able to compete with Blu-Ray now really is the better codecs.[...]The best thing for everyone clearly is to see blue laser optical storage technology become the favored technology.
You do understand that HD-DVD and Blu-ray BOTH use blue laser, right? In fact, they are both 405nm wavelength lasers (blue). DVD's are at 650 nm (red).

The pros and cons of the different formats have nothing to do with the wavelength of light being used.