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MacRumors
Jun 2, 2011, 10:59 AM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/02/apple-executives-optimistic-about-future-of-ios-expect-tablet-market-to-surpass-pcs/)


http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2011/06/ipad_2_hand.jpg


Business Insider reports (http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-coo-tim-cook-ipads-pcs-2011-6) on a new research note from Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope covering a recent meeting between Shope and Apple executives Tim Cook, Ron Johnson, and Peter Oppenheimer. According to Shope, the executives expressed considerable optimism regarding the future of iOS, particularly when it comes to the iPad. In fact, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook reportedly noted that the company expects tablet sales to surpass PC sales over the next several years.Shope says, "the company appeared more overtly optimistic on the long-term prospects for the iOS platform than it has been in quite some time."

Why?

For one, Cook said, "he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope's note.Apple's iPad of course currently dominates that tablet market, and while its share will almost certainly shrink as more competitors come to market, most observers expect Apple to continue to lead the market for years to come.

According to a separate article (http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-heres-how-you-should-think-about-us-getting-beat-by-android-2011-6) relating information from the note, Shope reports that Apple is once again touting its preference for an "integrated" ecosystem for iOS over the "fragmented" one it sees for Google's Android platform. Apple's executives reportedly suggest that while the Android approach may yield market share gains over the short term, but the the fragmentation will ultimately weaken the platform and degrade the user experience.

To that end, Apple argues that the true measure of a platform's value should be measured by how well it supports the entire ecosystem surrounding it, and with the company having paid out over $2 billion to App Store developers so far, it believes that it offers the most successful and sustainable model among mobile platforms.

Article Link: Apple Executives Optimistic About Future of iOS, Expect Tablet Market to Surpass PCs (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/02/apple-executives-optimistic-about-future-of-ios-expect-tablet-market-to-surpass-pcs/)



ECUpirate44
Jun 2, 2011, 11:05 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

macduke
Jun 2, 2011, 11:09 AM
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

iOS and Mac OS will converge as one in 5-7 years. Take that to the bank!

INeedAMacBook
Jun 2, 2011, 11:09 AM
Can't wait to see what iOS 5 does for iPad, especially iPad 2

theelysium
Jun 2, 2011, 11:09 AM
Yes they do! The best mobile OS ever! You rock Apple!:D

myamid
Jun 2, 2011, 11:10 AM
Will tablets replace a significant part of the Consumer Laptop market? Very likely! Will it replace a significant part of the consumer Desktop market? Not as likely? Enterprise space? Quite unlikely...

Will an integrated solution keep dominating? History tends to prove that "integrated" solutions tend to end up being niche products. The exception being when all the competition is just as integrated (ie: game consoles). The iPad will eventually end up having 20-30% of the market, just like the iPhone. Great place for apple to be (20% of the market with just 1 product), as a shareholder I'd love that, but it will end up being 2nd to Android, or maybe 3rd if windows becomes a legit tablet OS (thus facilitating the replacement of PCs)

BLACKFRIDAY
Jun 2, 2011, 11:10 AM
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

huh?

macnerd93
Jun 2, 2011, 11:10 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

Hence the reason for the iPad Keyboard Dock :D or you can use a Bluetooth Keyboard with it.

I love my iPad just cos its more portable than a laptop and it was awesome at a wedding I went to recently, which I shot the photos for my cousin. I was able to show him & the guests all the snaps like 5 mins after i'd took them on my iPad

bpeeps
Jun 2, 2011, 11:11 AM
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

iOS and Mac OS will converge as one in 5-7 years. Take that to the bank!



I hope there are no iOS5 compatibly issues with the iPhone 4. Upgrading the 3G to iOS4 was not a pleasant experience.

nicholashe
Jun 2, 2011, 11:11 AM
This reminds me of Gruber's old DF post that he recently quoted (link below). The gist is that the iOS devices will only be replacements for Macs when they can do the same high level complicated tasks. Right now, they can't – but they get away with it because the Mac exists and lets this happen. It's not a weakness of iOS devices, but just the reality of the technology at the moment.

http://www.macworld.com/article/156153/2010/12/macofthefuturegruber.html

theelysium
Jun 2, 2011, 11:11 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I agree for me personally (or until they beef them up) tablets will not replace my computer, but my iPad2 does a great job of replacing my computer on the go. If I need to do some serious work though, it's back to my computer.

theelysium
Jun 2, 2011, 11:13 AM
I hope there are no iOS5 compatibly issues with the iPhone 4. Upgrading the 3G to iOS4 was not a pleasant experience.

by that time the 3g was already 2 cycles behind. The iPhone 4 will work fine.

ThunderSkunk
Jun 2, 2011, 11:13 AM
I'm looking forward to the day they integrate all these technologies into a notebook that has no physical keyboard, but a multitouch control surface in place of it instead. It's a keyboard when you want a keyboard, and a configurable command tablet & hands-on display for any program you might be running, photoshop, cad, game controls etc...

Bonus, would be opening the laptop, having ios pop up to greet you, and either tap to enter ios where your apps can instantly reference the data on the same system ssd drive OS X accesses, or tap OS X to boot the main system and do heavier work.

No other mfg could compete with a system like that. ...for a while.

Is it a tablet? Is it a notebook? yes and yes. Not to say they won't go on making traditional tablets or & notebooks, but it seems like an inevitability with the directions they're going in.

skellener
Jun 2, 2011, 11:15 AM
Not everyone needs a truck. I agree.

notjustjay
Jun 2, 2011, 11:15 AM
I agree for me personally (or until they beef them up) tablets will not replace my computer, but my iPad2 does a great job of replacing my computer on the go. If I need to do some serious work though, it's back to my computer.

I think that's the direction we're moving in. You'll have a powerful PC (laptop or desktop) at home and at your desk at work. For everywhere else, you'll have your smartphone or tablet.

I've been settling into a routine where my iPad is in the bedroom so I can watch a video on Netflix or surf Facebook one last time before bed. My laptop downstairs is where I do the "real" work. The iPhone is for when I'm on the go.

Instead of buying a second or third PC for the home, I can easily picture people buying tablets instead.

myamid
Jun 2, 2011, 11:18 AM
I think that's the direction we're moving in. You'll have a powerful PC (laptop or desktop) at home and at your desk at work. For everywhere else, you'll have your smartphone or tablet.

I've been settling into a routine where my iPad is in the bedroom so I can watch a video on Netflix or surf Facebook one last time before bed. My laptop downstairs is where I do the "real" work. The iPhone is for when I'm on the go.

Instead of buying a second or third PC for the home, I can easily picture people buying tablets instead.

:) and here I thought the most common usage for tablets was toilet computing... No, for that use, it beats the crap out of a laptop hands down!! (pun intended)

leroypants
Jun 2, 2011, 11:19 AM
Hence the reason for the iPad Keyboard Dock :D or you can use a Bluetooth Keyboard with it.


Yeah, why carry a lap top, when you can carry an ipad, a keyboard dock and a card reading attachment.

I love my iPad just cos its more portable than a laptop and it was awesome at a wedding I went to recently, which I shot the photos for my cousin. I was able to show him & the guests all the snaps like 5 mins after i'd took them on my iPad


I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.

BC2009
Jun 2, 2011, 11:19 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

The iPad with the right case with an integrated bluetooth keyboard just might solve that issue for many people. I can actually do quite well on the touch screen keyboards (which quite frankly surprised me -- just took me an hour or two to get used to it when I first got an iPad last year). That said it is still not the best keyboard experience (far from it). The best best keyboard experience out there is still the old IBM Model M keyboards (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100076874) -- even today's modern keyboards are less than optimal for really prolonged typing (like writing a book).

irishgrizzly
Jun 2, 2011, 11:19 AM
For tablets to surpass PCs would that mean that they'll have a way where someone can buy an iPad and not have to sync it to a desktop? Perhaps all through iCloud?

Or maybe they are talking about revenue and not units sold, where you might buy a PC every 5 years and an ipad every 2.

Andy-V
Jun 2, 2011, 11:23 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I'm the same, a tablet cannot replace the tasks I perform on my laptop and hardware keyboards are easier to use. They just plain are.

All I would ever be interested in is a hybrid where the laptop screen can be detached. But never JUST a tablet. It's not happening for me, sorry.

Don't vote me down just because it's fine for you.

MisterK
Jun 2, 2011, 11:24 AM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

I think this is a given. You can imagine solutions for any of the current problems. Imagine a tablet switching from iOS to Mac OS when it senses Blutooth mouse movement. Faster processors; a mixture of higher capacity drives and cloud storage; lighter carbon fibre bodies; nicer docking; 2nd monitor extension through AirPlay... Maybe this is finally the delivery of the mythical thin client.

macnerd93
Jun 2, 2011, 11:27 AM
I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.

I didn't mean it like that. I dont use the keyboard dock, just the ipad the Apple case and the iPad USB Camera kit, it is more portable than my laptop and I really dont wanna get my MBP Scuffed up for the sake of showing a few people photos. obviously its also much quicker to switch on, setup and easier to walk around with.

Thats what I use my iPad for photography. I think it really does bring back the fun of photo editing with all the touch input etc it makes it feel more interactive just like the good old days of developing and stuff, don't get me wrong I love Aperture, but for quick on the move edits an iPad is perfect for myself.

ciTiger
Jun 2, 2011, 11:29 AM
Tablets will never replace laptops... But Laptops will never replace tablets either... They are completely different things... And Most people would actually just need a tablet...

deannnnn
Jun 2, 2011, 11:32 AM
I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

Andy-V
Jun 2, 2011, 11:35 AM
I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

This is just it. Tablets should be seen as a complement to laptops and desktops NOT a replacement. Just like laptops didn't replace desktops, tablets simply wont replace laptops. There's room in our lives for all three.

acslater017
Jun 2, 2011, 11:36 AM
Will tablets replace a significant part of the Consumer Laptop market? Very likely! Will it replace a significant part of the consumer Desktop market? Not as likely? Enterprise space? Quite unlikely...

Will an integrated solution keep dominating? History tends to prove that "integrated" solutions tend to end up being niche products. The exception being when all the competition is just as integrated (ie: game consoles). The iPad will eventually end up having 20-30% of the market, just like the iPhone. Great place for apple to be (20% of the market with just 1 product), as a shareholder I'd love that, but it will end up being 2nd to Android, or maybe 3rd if windows becomes a legit tablet OS (thus facilitating the replacement of PCs)

The main difference between tablets and phones is the carrier subsidies and nature of the customer. An iPad comes subsidy/contract-free. If you want a tablet, you go out and comparison shop.

When you buy a phone, you're first most likely locked into a carrier (or don't want the hassle of switching). On top of that, the carriers will subsidize your phone to $100, $50, or even free with a 2-year contract. Most non-techie people will say, "Ooh, this has a touchscreen, it plays music, and it's cheap" and go for that one. As many hardcore Android fans there are, there are far many more who don't even know what Android is. They simply buy the right phone for them, and it happens to be a cool-looking Samsung, Motorola, etc.

When you look at all devices shipped (phones, tablets, media players), iOS actually has more marketshare than Android. Only when you compare Android phones to iOS phones does Android have an advantage. Though this seems like comparing weighing all of Apple's lineup against Windows netbooks. Not to mention that there are many other metrics to use (customer satisfaction, revenue, etc.).

RebeccaL
Jun 2, 2011, 11:40 AM
I highly doubt that tablets are going to surpass PCs marketwise. They are great on the go, but when you have to sit down and type, or edit videos and pictures they become unpractical. And most people that buy tablets use it as a PC companion not replacement.

Tablets and specially the iPad have a lot of positives for portability but they lack convenient and sometimes necessary features that only a Laptops or desktops can offer like 15"+ screens, DVD, mouse, keyboard, compatibility with external devices, etc.

trip1ex
Jun 2, 2011, 11:42 AM
Too optimistic imo.

And laptops won't stand still. Apple obviously has the MBA and look at where Intel wants laptops to go in 2 years - to cheap MBA-like form factors.

College kids still need computers for college. An iPad might be nice addition but not a cheap one which will limit it in that market.

Yes tablets have a niche. There's all kind of uses where a tablet makes so much more sense than a laptop. The doctor's office. The sales person. Field TEch doing reports and needing connectivity. etc. etc.

I think the will merge. They have smartphones with slide-out keyboards.

We are going to get a tablet with a fold out laptop form factor or vice versa.

That being said I can probably ditch the MBP I just bought my wife and get her an ipad instead for a good $500 less. The only downside being she loses out on flash video and the handling of photos is more of a pain in the arse. WE just need 1 computer and that can be a desktop.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 2, 2011, 11:44 AM
iOS is third in market share behind Windows and Mac OS. Not bad.

I think that tablets will not completely replace laptops. But people will upgrade their laptops or desktops less frequently as the tablets get more daily use. So sales of personal computers will continue to fall. Well Apple appears to be increasing in sales but perhaps less frequent upgrades in personal computers and the umbrella affect of ipad and iphone will steer more people to Apple's computers.

I do see segments of the population for which tablets are a better option than a computer. For instance you may know older relatives who have no interest in getting a computer. But you set them up with a tablet for communication and media and they are happy.

crazytrain
Jun 2, 2011, 11:45 AM
Well I have a 13" Air and since getting the iPad, I've hardly used it at all. So for 2 months, the iPad has gone pretty much everywhere with me at work (great for taking notes during meetings etc). I was truly surprised by how easy it is to type on this thing. Maybe others have problems but I can honestly say that I don't have a problem at all with typing large pieces of work on the iPad. Now when it comes to editing spreadsheets and presentations, it's not as good, but still perfectly useable. One very happy iPad user here!

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 11:46 AM
The only reason why we are even moving forward with iPads is because we are implementing mobiEcho from GroupLogic. Without that the iPad is just a big toy.

jclardy
Jun 2, 2011, 11:47 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

True, but imagine an official iPad "laptop" dock that attaches to a future ipad.

Connects via NFC so no BT pairing required, has an extended battery that charges the ipad via induction (no cables) and uses some sort of magnetic latch like the smart cover. Would also be nice to have a touch pad, but that would mean bringing a mouse cursor to iOS.

Will Apple ever make something like that? Probably not, but really it depends on the direction they go with iOS 5 which we will know in a few days.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 11:48 AM
Whatever the Apple execs said. Just put your money on that, sit back, and enjoy.

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 11:49 AM
Oh, so many misconceptions, so little time:

a) Android may have "shippped" tons of tablets (and what is the company called "Android" that is doing all this shipping?), but get back to us with sales figures, please. No Samsung double-talk around here.

b) "I could never replace my [whatever] with a tablet" -- How do you know? What will tablets look like a few years from now? What input methods will they have? You don't know? Then how do you know what you will use a few years from now? Have some imagination and realize that the post-PC world is just beginning and what we see by 2020 will make 2011 products look sad and outdated.

c) Of course the tablet market is going to be bigger than the PC market. That's what happens EVERY time we enter a new era: the overall market expands as new consumers come into the fold. More minis were sold than mainframes; more PCs were sold than minis; and now we're going to see more tablets sold than PCs. Count on it.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 2, 2011, 11:51 AM
Well one thing is for sure: tablets killed the net book.

ABernardoJr
Jun 2, 2011, 11:53 AM
Hypothetically speaking, if iOS and OS X were to get closer and closer, I'd tend to hope that iOS would become more like OS X and not too much of the other. It's already sort of happening with iOS spilling over to OS X but I don't really want the notebooks and desktops running what would be more iOS than the stronger and more elaborate OS X. It's good to integrate things from the other but hopefully both will mostly keep their places in tact.

And to add something, if tablets (iPads) were to adopt the OS X platform as mentioned above, then I could definitely see tablets gaining a bigger market share.

rmwebs
Jun 2, 2011, 11:54 AM
IMO you'd be an idiot to think that iPad like devices will replace the general computer but whatever! :cool:

*cue the pathetic down-votes*

rmhop81
Jun 2, 2011, 11:57 AM
I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

in a few years the iPad isn't going to be exactly the same as it is today. Also, not everyone does hardcore word processing or video editing. The majority of users are super light users who just do email and surf the net.

acslater017
Jun 2, 2011, 11:57 AM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

Whether or not tablets replace laptops, it's heartening to know that the Apple brass have such confidence in the platform. They must have amazing things up their sleeve if they can make such bold statements...:D:apple:

Andy-V
Jun 2, 2011, 11:58 AM
b) "I could never replace my [whatever] with a tablet" -- How do you know? What will tablets look like a few years from now? What input methods will they have? You don't know? Then how do you know what you will use a few years from now? Have some imagination and realize that the post-PC world is just beginning and what we see by 2020 will make 2011 products look sad and outdated.

I'm standing by 'a tablet will not replace my laptop'. Maybe something will replace my laptop, maybe it will be something that evolves from the tablet. But a plain old tablet by the definition that we know them will not replace my laptop. In 20 years the laptop has evolved for example, but not beyond the definition of what a 'laptop' is. The dictionary definition hasn't changed.

I await the future. Tablets though to be honest aren't really the future. They're now. And they live side-by-side with laptops.

cvaldes
Jun 2, 2011, 11:58 AM
I believe the driving factor will be enterprise and government adoption of tablets more than the consumer market.

PCs will end up being shared resources whereas most employees will be issued a tablet. Tablet user interfaces and input methods will continue to improve and remote accessing a PC or virtual machine will be far easier than it is today.

Even on the consumer side, a family of four might eventually have just a couple of computers, but everyone will have a tablet.

Hueyfreeman
Jun 2, 2011, 12:00 PM
I for one have always hated laptops. So I think tablets are the perfect gap close I can use my desk top at home and my tablet on the go. I also think asus transformer pc is the way tablets should run hard keyboards. I think that tablet was a game changer. It may not have the sells or the demand the iPad has but it will change how tablets are made from this point on.

erzhik
Jun 2, 2011, 12:01 PM
way too optimistic. Tablets will never surpass PCs, not even after 20 years if tablet will even exist. Tablets are convenient and fun on the go or in bed, but have people actually use their tablets when their pc is right in front of them?

This is the same argument like people thinking that hybrids will surpass normal non-hybrids. Not gonna happen.

TMay
Jun 2, 2011, 12:06 PM
I didn't mean it like that. I dont use the keyboard dock, just the ipad the Apple case and the iPad USB Camera kit, it is more portable than my laptop and I really dont wanna get my MBP Scuffed up for the sake of showing a few people photos. obviously its also much quicker to switch on, setup and easier to walk around with.

Thats what I use my iPad for photography. I think it really does bring back the fun of photo editing with all the touch input etc it makes it feel more interactive just like the good old days of developing and stuff, don't get me wrong I love Aperture, but for quick on the move edits an iPad is perfect for myself.

With regards to the USB camera kit, for those that have SD flash, the EyeFi now supports peer to peer connection with both the iPhone and iPad.

http://www.eye.fi/blog/new-eye-fi-mobile-x2-and-instant-uploads

This is what I always assumed Apple's intent was with mobile devices, and why iCloud will probably spell the end of having to sync with a computer.

Laird Knox
Jun 2, 2011, 12:07 PM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I agree for me personally (or until they beef them up) tablets will not replace my computer, but my iPad2 does a great job of replacing my computer on the go. If I need to do some serious work though, it's back to my computer.

I'm the same, a tablet cannot replace the tasks I perform on my laptop and hardware keyboards are easier to use. They just plain are.

All I would ever be interested in is a hybrid where the laptop screen can be detached. But never JUST a tablet. It's not happening for me, sorry.

Don't vote me down just because it's fine for you.

I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

I highly doubt that tablets are going to surpass PCs marketwise. They are great on the go, but when you have to sit down and type, or edit videos and pictures they become unpractical. And most people that buy tablets use it as a PC companion not replacement.

Tablets and specially the iPad have a lot of positives for portability but they lack convenient and sometimes necessary features that only a Laptops or desktops can offer like 15"+ screens, DVD, mouse, keyboard, compatibility with external devices, etc.

Who said anything about replacing your laptop/desktop? The story is about the tablet market eclipsing the desktop. Not too long ago people who carried cell phones were looked at as attention whores. Today it isn't all that uncommon to see somebody with two or three cell phones.

Ah well, frown and stomp all you want. at least you will be in good company...

'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers'
Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

'While a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 10000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.'
Popular mechanics, 1949

'I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year'
Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

'But what... is it good for?'
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems division of IBM, commenting on the microchip, 1968

'There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in the home'
Ken Olson, Present, Chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

'640K should be enough for anybody'
Bill Gates, 1981

SmileyBlast!
Jun 2, 2011, 12:08 PM
Will tablets replace a significant part of the Consumer Laptop market? Very likely! Will it replace a significant part of the consumer Desktop market? Not as likely? Enterprise space? Quite unlikely...

I really thought Tim Cook was talking about Apple PCs and not the rest of the PC Market. I thought he was saying that Apple would sell more iPads than iMacs.

LagunaSol
Jun 2, 2011, 12:10 PM
Apple: the first trillion-dollar company?

I hope so.

munkees
Jun 2, 2011, 12:13 PM
Apple argues that the true measure of a platform's value should be measured by how well it supports the entire ecosystem surrounding it

I lol. iPad does not support any ecosystem, it is such a non standalone device, it is a consuming device, it has to mature along way before it can replace a laptop.

Maybe with iCloud technology the iPad can break it's dependance from the desktop devices, and become a true standalone device, self supporting, using the cloud for storage etc. Then it will be supporting the entire ecosystem. I am hopeful that this is the way it will end up being.

Žalgiris
Jun 2, 2011, 12:14 PM
The only reason why we are even moving forward with iPads is because we are implementing mobiEcho from GroupLogic. Without that the iPad is just a big toy.

Nice confirmation of cluelessness, lack of imagination and vision.Keep it up.

LagunaSol
Jun 2, 2011, 12:16 PM
And most people that buy tablets use it as a PC companion not replacement.

And most people that buy PCs buy them for the Web, email, Facebook, buying/listening to music, etc.

Some people believe that the general populace has greater computing needs than they actually do.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 12:20 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPad; U; CPU OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

way too optimistic. Tablets will never surpass PCs, not even after 20 years if tablet will even exist. Tablets are convenient and fun on the go or in bed, but have people actually use their tablets when their pc is right in front of them?

This is the same argument like people thinking that hybrids will surpass normal non-hybrids. Not gonna happen.

iCal'd for future claim chowder.

bad03xtreme
Jun 2, 2011, 12:22 PM
I can't afford a new computer but maybe every 5-6 years how would I ever be able to afford to replace a tablet every few years.

LegendKillerUK
Jun 2, 2011, 12:24 PM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I've written several thousand word reports on mine. Was fine.

spazzcat
Jun 2, 2011, 12:26 PM
Yeah, why carry a lap top, when you can carry an ipad, a keyboard dock and a card reading attachment.




I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.

Not everyone has the same requirements as you.

LegendKillerUK
Jun 2, 2011, 12:28 PM
Another thing people need to remember, you are basing your "A tablet will never replace my desktop" based on what tablets are right now, as opposed to following the quote from Tim of "over the next several years".

All mobile OS's will me notably more complex than they are now by then.

saffronboots
Jun 2, 2011, 12:29 PM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I'm not so sure. You assume the keyboard paradigm will need to exist in the future. Organizations are spending considerable resources in voice recognition, gestures, and other means, for completing tasks within an interface.

Even today, we try to shorten our sentences down to a few symbols or word fragments to convey meaning. Seems like people don't like typing... or the tools are insufficient, so they adjust accordingly.

All I know for sure is, I expend more time and effort on changing batteries in my wireless mouse and trackpad than I do for the keyboard.

UK-MacAddict
Jun 2, 2011, 12:33 PM
Unless the iPad has a quad core i5/i7 processor, 27 inch screen and running Mac OSX Lion I think my desktop and laptop are safe :rolleyes:

I love the iPad but I view it as a device purely for consumption of media and nothing more. Great for watching movies lying on the sofa or browsing the web whilst watching tv etc :)

hstewart
Jun 2, 2011, 12:35 PM
As an owner of iPad 2 and MacBook AIR ( using now ), Tablet only complement the PC and not replaced it. One partial exception if they ever get the full power of the Notebook into Tablet form factor and that is still questionable.

What I hope to see one day is an iMacPad - basically Mac OS X machine in iPad body style.

Yes iOS style machine is good for ones that don't need the extra power.

Can ARM iOS based machine run Photoshop CS 5 or Lightwave 3D?

ThunderSkunk
Jun 2, 2011, 12:38 PM
it is such a non standalone device, it is a consuming device

If that's true, then either there's something wrong with your ipad or you're not using it right.

Maybe you're just not a creative person.

Or maybe you're just talking about things you have no firsthand knowledge of.

KnightWRX
Jun 2, 2011, 12:44 PM
All mobile OS's will me notably more complex than they are now by then.

Then what's the point of "mobile" (I hate that word, the OS isn't moving...) OSes ? That doesn't make much sense.

Anyway, iOS and OS X are the same OS. The only difference is in the UI layer and the high-level APIs to manipulate that UI layer. Core APIs are pretty much the same, the Graphics server is still Quartz, the underlying kernel is the same.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 12:46 PM
Nice confirmation of cluelessness, lack of imagination and vision.Keep it up.

Welcome to the real world. I run a corp. infrastructure. When I have CEO's who want to save stuff and access stuff securely and remotely on their iPads what am I suppose to say... put it on Dropbox. Yeah right.

bushido
Jun 2, 2011, 12:46 PM
i hope iOS5 brings some serious changes or i have to jump ship for at least one product, i'm getting kidna sick of the dated look after owning several iOS devices, i need a fresh new UI experience for a change.

maclaptop
Jun 2, 2011, 12:49 PM
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

I'm curious, what does your statement above have to do with the topic at hand?

Do you have a point?

Is it that Android adds to the units sold total, across all platforms to increase the total share of the tablet category?

jeremiah256
Jun 2, 2011, 12:50 PM
"For one, Cook said, "he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope's note."

He's talking about how Apple will make its profits, not on their goal to totally replace desktops and laptops.

In some cases, a tablet will replace computers (PC seems to be a confusing term here on Mac Rumors). There are many processes (POS, for example) which you used to have to buy a full computer to handle, that are now being handled easily by a tablet or smartphone. Load up specialized items (pilot charts) and instead of buying a laptop, let a tablet handle it.

For personal use, I think a tablet will be used as a complement to, not a replacement for, computers. The iPad was an extra purchase I made. I can't think of a better device than the iPad for a family with kids. Bought the first iPad when my son was two and he took to it naturally. Now, it's scary how well he can use it, including going onto Netflix by himself to watch his favorite cartoons and playing with the multiple teaching tools. Bottom line, it didn't replace a laptop the little monster was going to get. It was a tool I was convinced was worth purchasing.

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 12:51 PM
Think back to the original 2001 iPod. Remember how small the b&w screen was, and the heftiness of it, and that click wheel that was so cool at the time? Now imagine thinking that you'd be able to read books on that device, and watch movies, and update spreadsheets, and play games using your finger on the screen, and take photos and video, and browse the Web, and make phone calls.

Yet that is precisely what you can do with today's iPod touch and iPhone. Over ten years, much can change.

Ten years from the iPad's introduction, in 2020, we will have tablets that do things we simply cannot imagine doing with an iPad today, but by then will be ordinary. Too often we imagine in linear fashion, thinking that what we see today is basically what we will see tomorrow other than a bit faster or a bit smaller or a bit thinner. This way of thinking misses the big leaps in functionality that are game changers. They're coming.

Dr McKay
Jun 2, 2011, 12:51 PM
For me personally, A tablet would not replace my laptop.

And if I were to even try, I would not consider my iPad as a contender, I'd go with one of the upcoming Quad-core Windows 8 Tablets, namely because it has a full OS on it.

miamialley
Jun 2, 2011, 12:54 PM
iOS is 3.5 years old and needs a drastic update to UI and functionality. I hope 5.0 brings necessary changes!

munkees
Jun 2, 2011, 12:55 PM
If that's true, then either there's something wrong with your ipad or you're not using it right.

Maybe you're just not a creative person.

It's not that I am not creative, I found the device seriously lack integration. For an example, If I create a song in Garageband for the iPad to use in iMovie for the iPad, I cannot with out having to first sync the iPad to the desktop, then selected the song and re-sync for its use in the iMovie for the iPad.

I am sure as IOS matures integration between apps will be better, using some common space.

Also I found that I could not upload photos to MobileMe in a group, but had to do it one at a time. I do not want to use flickr etc etc, seeing I have MobileMe.

I sold my iPad, got a MBA 11, it really just a few $300 more than a 64B wifi iPad, but has more memory, fast processor, capable of doing so much more. However, it does not have the cool form factor of the iPad, nor the battery life.

I found the iPad at it's current state not suitable for my needs, but in the future I will end up purchasing another iPad, but only when it suites my needs.

hiddenoak
Jun 2, 2011, 12:56 PM
... Just like laptops didn't replace desktops, tablets simply wont replace laptops..
My 2011 high end MBP 15 replaced my 2008 8 core mac Pro, tested, personally.:cool:

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 12:58 PM
One of the best things Apple did with the iPad is to not put the full-blown OS on it the way Microsoft is about to do in a horrible mistake that they will regret. A few geeks might want the full OS, but most people will not, and they should not. A lot of an OS deals with functionality and input/output that has no bearing on a tablet. A post-PC device needs a post-PC OS.

However, I see a lot of resistance in this thread to tablets as the dominant form. OK, I can wait. I saw the same sort of resistance to PCs when they first showed up. By the tiime most of you change your mind, you won't even remember having resisted in the first place. It will just seem like the most natural thing in the world to pick up an iPad 7 or whatever at it is at the time.

ratzzo
Jun 2, 2011, 01:05 PM
While tablets are not by any means a computer replacement, these statements come as no surprise: the normal user uses the computer to chat, browse websites, watch videos.. and it's in this field where a tablet exceeds.

Dooger
Jun 2, 2011, 01:05 PM
iCal'd for future claim chowder.

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?p=12601017&highlight=#post12601017

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?p=12477364&highlight=#post12477364

Your iCal must be filling up with your petty little vendettas.
Btw, is there not a forum ruling on repetitive posting? You don't wanna get stuck in Time Out again, do you?

Žalgiris
Jun 2, 2011, 01:06 PM
Welcome to the real world. I run a corp. infrastructure. When I have CEO's who want to save stuff and access stuff securely and remotely on their iPads what am I suppose to say... put it on Dropbox. Yeah right.

Still clueless. The fact that you have no use for it (your copr... wowo i must be impressed huh) doesn't make the device obsolete/useless/toy to the rest of the world.

kas23
Jun 2, 2011, 01:07 PM
How will iPads replace PCs/laptops/desktops/etc when you need one of these devices to sync your iPad? Not until tablets are more independent will they replace regular computers. Additionally, the post-PC world will be nothing but an Apple marketing buzzword until the iPad breaks its chains from the desktop/laptop.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 01:10 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPad; U; CPU OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

While tablets are not by any means a computer replacement, these statements come as no surprise: the normal user uses the computer to chat, browse websites, watch videos.. and it's in this field where a tablet exceeds.

Not replacements at the moment. At the moment.

Give it some time. Think into the future a bit.

Think about June 2007. Now look where we are today. It's like night and day.

firewood
Jun 2, 2011, 01:13 PM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop.

The iPad can surpass Macs or PCs in total use and sales without replacing them.

The majority of Mac/PC purchasers don't need what a PC can offer beyond a tablet. More than half of all laptop and desktop PC buyers, both consumer and business, use no significant functionality on their PC that can't be done on a tablet (plus maybe accessories, such as a Bluetooth keyboard). Tons of home users only do email+web. Tons of business PCs only run point-of-sale or data entry apps, or web apps, or remote desktop, or presentations, stuff which can all be done with an iPad.

The real work will be done in the server closet or the cloud, not on a PC. Even power users may not use the full functionality of a Mac or PC most of the time. An iPad can replace that 2nd or 3rd laptop that's used for email in the living room, while the main machine is doing a movie render in the office.

So desktop and laptop PCs could easily fall to 10% of the market without completely being replaced, with the other 90% of personal computing purchases going to smartphones and tablets.

That would be a surpassing, not a replacement, just like PCs surpassed mainframes and minicomputers in the market. But IBM still sells mainframes to power user enterprises who need them, so mainframes haven't been completely replaced.

mac1984user
Jun 2, 2011, 01:14 PM
Speaking of fragmentation of the ecosystem, didn't Apple say something similar about Windows in the early 90s? That fragmentation is not something to be scoffed at in all circumstances. The closed environment is pretty cool, don't get me wrong, but it can backfire as Apple should be all too keenly aware.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 01:16 PM
The iPad can surpass Macs or PCs in total use and sales without replacing them.

The majority of Mac/PC purchasers don't need what a PC can offer beyond a tablet. More than half of all laptop and desktop PC buyers, both consumer and business, use no significant functionality on their PC that can't be done on a tablet (plus maybe accessories, such as a Bluetooth keyboard). Tons of home users only do email+web. Tons of business PCs only run point-of-sale or data entry apps, or web apps, or remote desktop, or presentations, stuff which can all be done with an iPad.

The real work will be done in the server closet or the cloud, not on a PC. Even power users may not use the full functionality of a Mac or PC most of the time. An iPad can replace that 2nd or 3rd laptop that's used for email in the living room, while the main machine is doing a movie render in the office.

So desktop and laptop PCs could easily fall to 10% of the market without completely being replaced, with the other 90% of personal computing purchases going to smartphones and tablets.

That would be a surpassing, not a replacement, just like PCs surpassed mainframes and minicomputers in the market. But IBM still sells mainframes to power user enterprises who need them, so mainframes haven't been completely replaced.

This is a sensible perspective. It acknowledges the continued utility of the classic PC model (which even now is moving toward tablet-like physical proportions) while also acknowledging the sea-change we're seeing in this Post-PC era.

kas23
Jun 2, 2011, 01:17 PM
"For one, Cook said, "he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope's note."

Perhaps Cook doesn't own an iPad or his is jail broken. You need a regular computer to sync it to get the most function out of your tablet.

scottsjack
Jun 2, 2011, 01:19 PM
One of the best things Apple did with the iPad is to not put the full-blown OS on it the way Microsoft is about to do in a horrible mistake that they will regret. A few geeks might want the full OS, but most people will not, and they should not. A lot of an OS deals with functionality and input/output that has no bearing on a tablet. A post-PC device needs a post-PC OS.

However, I see a lot of resistance in this thread to tablets as the dominant form. OK, I can wait. I saw the same sort of resistance to PCs when they first showed up. By the tiime most of you change your mind, you won't even remember having resisted in the first place. It will just seem like the most natural thing in the world to pick up an iPad 7 or whatever at it is at the time.

Wrong. For people who want a FaceBook or Google Mail toy you are right. But if one wants real computing it's going to take a real operating system.

Consider that the iPad 2 is more powerful than my last Dell laptop. Photoshop CS2 on that old Dell was a little slow. XP Pro wanted more than a weak Pentium M and 1GB RAM but it did work.

The first open 64-bit full-OS table gets my business. I would prefer OS X but Windows 7 will work just fine. Either way I can use Adobe's software. I figure I'll have one within a couple of years.

bushido
Jun 2, 2011, 01:21 PM
isnt it ironic how u cant use a iPad without a computer tho?

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 01:26 PM
Still clueless. The fact that you have no use for it (your copr... wowo i must be impressed huh) doesn't make the device obsolete/useless/toy to the rest of the world.

Clueless yet I am the one getting paid to make those decisions. Bottom line is this. The iPad is a great idea that is handcuffed. The product we are using is going to take the cuffs off and give our users the ability to use a file share. Meaning that they can actually save stuff somewhere!

maclaptop
Jun 2, 2011, 01:29 PM
There is a significant difference between work and personal usage. In addition, there is a huge difference between market share and the massive installed base of Windows computers, workstations, servers and such in the corporate space.

It is for this reason alone it will be years before we see just how this plays out.

Just because we have one of those typical "Steve Says" scenario's is of little consequence.

For there are millions of other "Steve's" out there that do the work to put great science to work. To design and test products of all types. They are using PC's. The get home from work and have families and other things to do, that make huge demands on their time. Not everyone has the leisure time to sit around and play on a tablet.

For the ones that do, they still don't have huge blocks of time, therefore the iPad appeals, as one can pick it up and surf, check ones mail, and go about life. But replace the computer? Not for some time.

So fans of Apple will, as they are now, be the first to salute the commander and buy iPads. Push them in the face of their employers, and drive them into the workplace. But that will be on a very limited basis, despite all the buzz.

Bloggers and journalists must have news to write about and the tablet buzz is one of their current cash cows. At the present it just happens to be an iPad because in my opinion they are the best. Yet that said, anything can happen and if the big players in the PC and Android space get really serious, we may see a shift in the balance of tablets.

When I say shift, I am not suggesting they are going to sell as many as Apple, but rather that they may finally get their products up to the standard that the public expects and sell a higher volume than is expected at the present.

As I see it, while Apple may be hyper focused on centering their products on a mobile OS, they are the only ones doing that presently. With the news of an ARM powered laptop from Apple, we all know that will be a very slow and limited performer.

The others such as Lenovo, have a very high demand (I waited over six weeks for my latest workstation W510) which shows no sign of slowing. So while the overall PC sales may be slowing the premier builders like Lenovo are doing well. Remember no graph is linear so when there are ups and downs for a company like Lenovo whose core business is corporate, these cycles are completely normal. Corporations simply don't replace their computers as fast as consumers.

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to watch.

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 01:35 PM
Wrong. For people who want a FaceBook or Google Mail toy you are right. But if one wants real computing it's going to take a real operating system.



iPad is a real computer, but it has a real OS designed for a tablet. What you are talking about is shoehorning yesterday's technology into today's tech just so that you can continue to perform yesterday's tasks yesterday's way.

Fortunately Apple is not catering to those who are backward looking. Watch and see how iOS develops and the software written specifically for it. It will blow away what you are imagining.

firewood
Jun 2, 2011, 01:36 PM
You need a regular computer to sync it to get the most function out of your tablet.

Just like most Macs require a connection to an Apple server to do system and app updates?

And a person or business can currently use one Mac to sync a pile of iPads and iPhones, easily allowing these iDevices to far surpass the Macs in total usage in a home or business.

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 01:42 PM
And remember, the post-PC era never means that PCs will die. We live in a post-Mainframe era, but companies still buy mainframes if they need one.

So don't think that just because tablets are going to someday outsell PCs that PCs will go away. And remember who is posting in these sorts of threads: the very technically literate who are most likely to need PCs.

You will continue to buy PCs to do whatever you need PCs for. But more tablets will be sold because the number of people who do not need PCs is quite a bit greater than the number of people who do need them.

LoganT
Jun 2, 2011, 01:45 PM
I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 01:45 PM
And remember, the post-PC era never means that PCs will die. We live in a post-Mainframe era, but companies still buy mainframes if they need one.

So don't think that just because tablets are going to someday outsell PCs that PCs will go away. And remember who is posting in these sorts of threads: the very technically literate who are most likely to need PCs.

You will continue to buy PCs to do whatever you need PCs for. But more tablets will be sold because the number of people who do not need PCs is quite a bit greater than the number of people who do need them.

The only issue I have with the iPad is storage. I don't like not knowing or having the ability to really tell my stuff where to go. mobilEcho is really going to change the game for corp. iPad users and hopefully help put more iPads in the environment. I'm all for it. The more Macs the safer my job is however, I refuse to blindly put Macs in the environment just to do so.

ericinboston
Jun 2, 2011, 01:46 PM
Define how tablets will eclipse traditional pc sales...units sold? average price per unit? # of units per houshold?

Although tablets (and their definitely great future) will become very common if the price is right, tablets are still not (and likely never will be) a replacement for a traditional pc...tablets will always lag in performance, storage, i/o ports, and their lack of a real keyboard (it takes me 10 times longer to write an email on my iPad than on any pc/laptop I use...imagine how this would affect me in actually writing something longer than 4 paragraphs).

Tablets will be around for quite a long time I believe...but likely nothing will replace the flexibility and price of a traditional pc. Well, not sure about those $1200+ iMacs when billions of non-Apple pcs cost between $550 and $850 for a great-to-fantastic pc. But that's another topic...I'm just bringing up the cost of said hardware (keyboards, mice, monitor, i/o ports, drives, etc) since we are talking about pcs and the "price" category sure is a factor in tablets vs. pcs.

SHirsch999
Jun 2, 2011, 01:51 PM
I can easily see this happen in the next few years. I think some of you are missing the point. They did not say it would replace the PC. I can easily and very realistically see in the next few years that the average household will have 1 main computer, laptop or desktop, and a separate tablet-like device for each person in the house. In my family we have 2 adults and 2 kids. The kids right now are too young for their own devices, but I can see us moving from the 2 PCs we currently have (no tablets or smartphones yet) to 1 PC and at least 2-3 tablet-like devices linked back to the PC. I think this is what they mean, and this is how the tablet market will overtake the PC market. You also cannot rule out the possibility of the tablet becoming more laptop-like as time goes by.

Laird Knox
Jun 2, 2011, 01:53 PM
It's not that I am not creative, I found the device seriously lack integration. For an example, If I create a song in Garageband for the iPad to use in iMovie for the iPad, I cannot with out having to first sync the iPad to the desktop, then selected the song and re-sync for its use in the iMovie for the iPad.

I am sure as IOS matures integration between apps will be better, using some common space.

Also I found that I could not upload photos to MobileMe in a group, but had to do it one at a time. I do not want to use flickr etc etc, seeing I have MobileMe.

I sold my iPad, got a MBA 11, it really just a few $300 more than a 64B wifi iPad, but has more memory, fast processor, capable of doing so much more. However, it does not have the cool form factor of the iPad, nor the battery life.

I found the iPad at it's current state not suitable for my needs, but in the future I will end up purchasing another iPad, but only when it suites my needs.

That is interesting as I find the integration between the iPad, iPhone, Apple TV, Mac and PC very promising. While I agree the integration isn't mature in any sense I do like where it is heading.

I find the iPad is now always by my side where I wouldn't even consider a laptop. Even when I'm on two wheels the iPad is tucked inside my jacket. My next project is integrating 4G service into my motorcycle. ;)

Sure will be fun to look back at the 10th anniversary and see how the market developed. :)

NebulaClash
Jun 2, 2011, 01:55 PM
I can easily see this happen in the next few years. I think some of you are missing the point. They did not say it would replace the PC. I can easily and very realistically see in the next few years that the average household will have 1 main computer, laptop or desktop, and a separate tablet-like device for each person in the house. In my family we have 2 adults and 2 kids. The kids right now are too young for their own devices, but I can see us moving from the 2 PCs we currently have (no tablets or smartphones yet) to 1 PC and at least 2-3 tablet-like devices linked back to the PC. I think this is what they mean, and this is how the tablet market will overtake the PC market. You also cannot rule out the possibility of the tablet becoming more laptop-like as time goes by.

Quite right. The tablet market will be bigger than the PC market, but the PC market will still exist.

ericinboston
Jun 2, 2011, 02:05 PM
I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

Huh? So Apple is trying to create a $500-$800 device that will kill it's $1200-$2500 computer lineup?



The iPad is coming up on version 3 and here are a bunch of things is STILL cannot do (no matter what the excuse):

-can't print except to 6 select printers out of literally thousands of still-supported-models around the globe

-USB ports for attaching devices or expanding storage are non-existent

-can't store any files on my iPad other than mp3s/photos/videos...what about the PDFs I get in email often...or the MS Office docs I get?

-can't sync to iTunes wirelessly (a complete joke)

-can't sync to iPhoto

-sealed shut preventing me from upgrading ANYTHING

-virtual keyboard stinks for writing anything longer than a 3 paragraph email

-RELIES on a computer to begin with...from the instant you first attempt to power it on it DEMANDS to be connected to a computer. go figure.

-processing power is far lower than any traditional pc/laptop...however, not everyone needs the horsepower especially since tablets are not really modeled to be a pc REPLACEMENT

-non-replaceable battery

-cannot charge via USB cable unlike millions of other USB devices

-forced to install only Apple-approved software...greatly limits apps for us techies that want some deeper networking apps...and not a fan of Big Brother approving/banning what I can/cannot install on my device.

-sometimes forces us to install apps via computer/USB cable. lovely.

-support Flash? Nope.






Don't get me wrong...I like the iPad (I still think it is expensive)...but it has a long way to go to being as flexible as a traditional pc as you infer with your comment. The iPad is a nice emailer/web surfer/iPod player/picture slideshow thingy/play some fairly decent games for $5 type of device. If that's all you do with your pc these days (and a fairly decent percentage of folks do) then great. But for a lot of us who use pcs for all the above AS WELL AS more advanced items, iPad has a ways to go.

I look forward to see what Apple has in store for 3.0

scottsjack
Jun 2, 2011, 02:06 PM
I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

Will it really be considered an iPad then?

nofear1az
Jun 2, 2011, 02:08 PM
way too optimistic. Tablets will never surpass PCs, not even after 20 years if tablet will even exist. Tablets are convenient and fun on the go or in bed, but have people actually use their tablets when their pc is right in front of them?

This is the same argument like people thinking that hybrids will surpass normal non-hybrids. Not gonna happen.

well, I have a MacBook Air and an iPad and I can honestly say I use my iPad way more than my MBAir. I always choose to use my iPad over any computer just because it's so much lighter and easier to use around the couch, at the dinner table, in bed, or at one of my favorite food places. It's the shear convenience of it over a bulky computer and the MBAir isn't bulky by any means.

Only time I choose my MBAir or a real computer over the iPad is if I need to work on something that requires heavier use.

the iPad or tablet is really transforming in the way I do things now... I believe it is hear to stay whether you like it or not. I also believe a lot more desktops will utilize the screen as a touch interface not to replace the keyboard/mouse but rather to use it in addition to for mostly less than that 40% of time such as touching your photos. I believe as time goes by more and more applications will be born and grow into using the touch interface more; however, keyboard at the least will be here to stay.

KnightWRX
Jun 2, 2011, 02:08 PM
That is interesting as I find the integration between the iPad, iPhone, Apple TV, Mac and PC very promising.

He's talking about the integration between the various apps. You can't have 2 or 3 or more apps interacting with each others content to form a whole.

You didn't even address his GarageBand to iMovie example. That's a serious problem in iOS and relegates it to pretty much consumer status only. I can't say created graphics in a graphics app and then plop them into a word processing app to ad to my documents or into a presentation app for my presentation.

NickFalk
Jun 2, 2011, 02:12 PM
Welcome to the real world. I run a corp. infrastructure. When I have CEO's who want to save stuff and access stuff securely and remotely on their iPads what am I suppose to say... put it on Dropbox. Yeah right.
Nope, you'll pay the pocket change needed to be part of the iOS Developer Enterprise Program. I'm sure you have some people in your organization actually knowing how to code? Then make them work for a living and develop the necessary hook-ups to your existing infrastructure.

Even if this is not the solution you envision for your corporation it is probably something you should investigate...

KnightWRX
Jun 2, 2011, 02:15 PM
Nope, you'll pay the pocket change needed to be part of the iOS Developer Enterprise Program. I'm sure you have some people in your organization actually knowing how to code? Then make them work for a living and develop the necessary hook-ups to your existing infrastructure.

Even if this is not the solution you envision for your corporation it is probably something you should investigate...

The problem with in-house code is that it is often times more expensive to maintain and support and prevents future upgrades without significant investment in changing said code, especially if your main mission is not IT.

I work in IT for an enterprise class business that has a non-IT mission as its main goal. We used to do a lot of in-house code and stuff and those systems have proven to be quite the headaches. We're now moving to mostly vendor provided code. They are in the business of maintaining, updating and supporting software, we aren't.

cvaldes
Jun 2, 2011, 02:18 PM
For me personally, A tablet would not replace my laptop.

And if I were to even try, I would not consider my iPad as a contender, I'd go with one of the upcoming Quad-core Windows 8 Tablets, namely because it has a full OS on it.
For a few, a tablet will replace their only PC.

For many, the tablet will probably replace a second, third, or even fourth PC.

Your individual use case is irrelevant. What is important is the overall marketplace. That's what these executives are talking about, the way the industry is trending, not what any given person will do.

Hueyfreeman
Jun 2, 2011, 02:22 PM
As far as real functionality as a pc replacement iOS is not even close. Android however is, yes I know every android nay-sayer is going to vote this down and add coments like "its not polished" "the apps suck" and "fragmented". Well this post is about the things it offers that ios does not. It offers a file system to store files on board the tablet that all apps have access to. It does not require a computer to sync with. And some manufacturers have even came up with great ways to get a hard keyboard integrated into the tablet. If you want to argue tgis post argue that these things are not needed rather then posting that android sucks.

AppleScruff1
Jun 2, 2011, 02:23 PM
If Uncle Steve said it, everyone would believe it, but Tim Cook? Please.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 02:23 PM
Nope, you'll pay the pocket change needed to be part of the iOS Developer Enterprise Program. I'm sure you have some people in your organization actually knowing how to code? Then make them work for a living and develop the necessary hook-ups to your existing infrastructure.

Even if this is not the solution you envision for your corporation it is probably something you should investigate...

Send me your resume and you have a job then since you seem to be able to do things a lot of developers haven't. We have a solution already. mobilEcho will do everything we need and more plus it will have support behind. Not all companies can put that type of support into developers us included especially with iOS. It's hard to invest in someone that has NO ROADMAP.

firewood
Jun 2, 2011, 02:35 PM
Although tablets (and their definitely great future) will become very common if the price is right, tablets are still not (and likely never will be) a replacement for a traditional pc...tablets will always lag in performance, storage, i/o ports, and their lack of a real keyboard (it takes me 10 times longer to write an email on my iPad than on any pc/laptop I use...imagine how this would affect me in actually writing something longer than 4 paragraphs).

"Although PCs (and their definitely great future) will become very common if the price is right, PCs are still not (and likely never will be) a replacement for a traditional mainframe or minicomputer... PCs will always lag in performance, storage, i/o channels, and their lack of a card readers and line printers (it would take a bank 1000 times longer to print the bank statements of all their customers on a PC... imagine how this would affect a business in actually running a stock exchange or airline reservation system or predicting global weather)."

How correct was the above prediction?

notjustjay
Jun 2, 2011, 02:49 PM
way too optimistic. Tablets will never surpass PCs, not even after 20 years if tablet will even exist. Tablets are convenient and fun on the go or in bed, but have people actually use their tablets when their pc is right in front of them?

This is the same argument like people thinking that hybrids will surpass normal non-hybrids. Not gonna happen.

Think of it more like cars versus bikes.

The average home has 1 or 2 cars, which get shared between the drivers (usually the parents). But probably 3, 4, 5 bikes -- one for each member of the family (including the parents who already own cars). You're never going to replace a car with a bike, but for short trips or just for fun, it's sure easier to pull out a bike and go for a quick ride.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 02:59 PM
The differences in thinking . . .

This is what Jobs said a year ago.

http://www.viddler.com/simple/30fe0cca/

Note that Ballmer says something soft, conservative, and status-quo. Typical MS drone-talk.

Then Jobs takes a risk and says something completely radical . . . and absolutely nails it. Again.

Laird Knox
Jun 2, 2011, 02:59 PM
He's talking about the integration between the various apps. You can't have 2 or 3 or more apps interacting with each others content to form a whole.

You didn't even address his GarageBand to iMovie example. That's a serious problem in iOS and relegates it to pretty much consumer status only. I can't say created graphics in a graphics app and then plop them into a word processing app to ad to my documents or into a presentation app for my presentation.

I didn't address his example because I wasn't refuting it. I was simply stating that I find the current integration of devices to be very enticing. Not every post here is an argument. ;)

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 03:00 PM
The differences in thinking . . .

This is what Jobs said a year ago.

http://www.viddler.com/simple/30fe0cca/

Note that Ballmer says something soft, conservative, and status-quo. Typical MS drone-talk.

Then Jobs takes a risk and says something completely radical . . . and absolutely nails it. Again.

Like always dragging in the dirty laundry to muck up a conversation. Business as usual.

AppleScruff1
Jun 2, 2011, 03:05 PM
The differences in thinking . . .

This is what Jobs said a year ago.

http://www.viddler.com/simple/30fe0cca/

Note that Ballmer says something soft, conservative, and status-quo. Typical MS drone-talk.

Then Jobs takes a risk and says something completely radical . . . and absolutely nails it. Again.

What has he nailed? Has the iPad taken over the computing market yet How about some statistics to prove this? What are you going to do when Uncle Steve retires? Who will you cheerlead then?

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 03:06 PM
Like always dragging in the dirty laundry to muck up a conversation. Business as usual.

It's actually 100% germane to the conversation. I'm sorry if what he said makes you and others uneasy.

SandynJosh
Jun 2, 2011, 03:07 PM
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I've noticed that for some time one of the first ten posts will contain a comment similar to the above by some Luddite.

I'm old enough to remember how many people were loath to accept changing from a manual typewriter to an electric. I also remember how common IBM Selectric typewriters were in offices up until the mid 1970s, and all the excuses people made to still have one in their work space as companies converted to dumb terminals. I remember how hard MIS managers fought to keep data centralized and not allow hard disks in desktop PCs. Later people fought to retain floppy disks in their PCs, and now it's all about the "need" for a CD/DVD drive/burner in laptops.

"No way will this replace my old that," has been the rallying cry of the heel-draggers over the last 50 years I've watched change come to the office.

I won't be so bold as to say that the iPad will replace laptop computers as both will become more portable, but I will say that high portability will be a strong driving force. I also believe easy syncing will also dominate buying decisions, so a well thought-out ecosystem will important going forward.

Necross
Jun 2, 2011, 03:18 PM
I agree that tablets will soon take over traditional computers.. Power users, programmers, designers and hardcore gamers will still always want a "real" computer, and they'll be on our desks at work for a long time to come, but the vast majority of new computer buyers from general public will soon be just considering tablets and not computers.

Between tablets, smart TVs, handhelds, etc... it's all gonna be changing. I bought my first computer 20 years ago.. feels like 20 years from now (if we don't all die in 2012) I'll be looking back fondly on the days when I had a keyboard instead of just plugging my iExternalbrain into a socket in the back of my head.

I just wish they'd hurry up and make those flying cars the Jetsons promised us.

localoid
Jun 2, 2011, 03:48 PM
Regardless of their lack of qualifications, there's never a shortage of people willing to assume the role of a futurist...

From 1987: Laptops to Supersede Desktops, Analysts Say (http://books.google.com/books?id=vDsEAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA21&dq=laptops%20will%20replace%20desktops&pg=PA21#v=onepage&q&f=false)

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 04:02 PM
It's actually 100% germane to the conversation. I'm sorry if what he said makes you and others uneasy.

Think what you will. If thats what makes you feel better chief. Bottom line is constantly throwing muck around about anyone not Apple does nothing but makes Apple users look like elitists. Its so hard being the Mac guy because everyone think you are like *LTD*. Not true at all some Mac users aren't mindless followers.

notjustjay
Jun 2, 2011, 04:21 PM
Regardless of their lack of qualifications, there's never a shortage of people willing to assume the role of a futurist...

From 1987: Laptops to Supersede Desktops, Analysts Say (http://books.google.com/books?id=vDsEAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA21&dq=laptops%20will%20replace%20desktops&pg=PA21#v=onepage&q&f=false)

Well, although laptops didn't replace desktops, they certainly became just as powerful, popular, and ubiquitous as desktop PCs. And a lot of the other predictions in the article certainly came true: laptops became thin, light, have high-resolution displays, and have (had) standard card architectures for expansion. They also dropped to the predicted $1,000 price point (and then some, of course) making them useful in all the markets listed in the article (e.g. students, professionals, vertical markets).

Laptops were a fledgling technology back then much like tablets are today. Who knows what will happen? Look at the picture of the laptop of 1987. We laugh at that now. Will we look back at the likes of the iPad in another 25 years and laugh at how crude and clunky it was?

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 04:53 PM
Well, although laptops didn't replace desktops, they certainly became just as powerful, popular, and ubiquitous as desktop PCs. And a lot of the other predictions in the article certainly came true: laptops became thin, light, have high-resolution displays, and have (had) standard card architectures for expansion. They also dropped to the predicted $1,000 price point (and then some, of course) making them useful in all the markets listed in the article (e.g. students, professionals, vertical markets).

Laptops were a fledgling technology back then much like tablets are today. Who knows what will happen? Look at the picture of the laptop of 1987. We laugh at that now. Will we look back at the likes of the iPad in another 25 years and laugh at how crude and clunky it was?

The difference though is that laptops are affordable now. Laptops back in the days were astronomically priced. Go back even to the early 2000's and a decent laptop was still in the upper $2000 range and couldn't compete with a desktop. Now laptops are just as fast as desktops and just as expensive making it very easy to own. Tablets just don't offer enough yet and still price wise are pretty expensive for what you get.

localoid
Jun 2, 2011, 04:54 PM
Well, although laptops didn't replace desktops, they certainly became just as powerful, popular, and ubiquitous as desktop PCs. And a lot of the other predictions in the article certainly came true: laptops became thin, light, have high-resolution displays, and have (had) standard card architectures for expansion. They also dropped to the predicted $1,000 price point (and then some, of course) making them useful in all the markets listed in the article (e.g. students, professionals, vertical markets).

Laptops were a fledgling technology back then much like tablets are today. Who knows what will happen? Look at the picture of the laptop of 1987. We laugh at that now. Will we look back at the likes of the iPad in another 25 years and laugh at how crude and clunky it was?

Unsurprisingly, the articles published over the last 30+ years, that have predicted "product X will replace product Y", have been penned by a "futurist" that just so happens to be employed by a business that manufactures product X.

AaronEdwards
Jun 2, 2011, 04:57 PM
Who said anything about replacing your laptop/desktop? The story is about the tablet market eclipsing the desktop. Not too long ago people who carried cell phones were looked at as attention whores. Today it isn't all that uncommon to see somebody with two or three cell phones.

Ah well, frown and stomp all you want. at least you will be in good company...

'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers'
Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

'While a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 10000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.'
Popular mechanics, 1949

'I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year'
Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

'But what... is it good for?'
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems division of IBM, commenting on the microchip, 1968

'There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in the home'
Ken Olson, Present, Chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

'640K should be enough for anybody'
Bill Gates, 1981



Just because people said things that in hindsight, or in some cases even right then, were stupid doesn't mean that people objecting to the tablet surpassing the PC will be wrong. I bet you could find someone arguing that the laptop would surpass the desktop, or that the netbook would surpass the PC, and there will be lots of claims of technology Y surpassing technology X.
For every comment that turned out wrong, there's also a lot of comments that turned out to be right.

Also, the tablet isn't the height of evolution, it can be surpassed just as as the tablet surpassed the netbook.

localoid
Jun 2, 2011, 05:00 PM
Just because people said things that in hindsight, or in some cases even right then, were stupid doesn't mean that people objecting to the tablet surpassing the PC will be wrong. I bet you could find someone arguing that the laptop would surpass the desktop, or that the netbook would surpass the PC, and there will be lots of claims of technology Y surpassing technology X.
For every comment that turned out wrong, there's also a lot of comments that turned out to be right.

Also, the tablet isn't the height of evolution, it can be surpassed just as as the tablet surpassed the netbook.

"Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years." —Alex Lewyt, president of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company, quoted in the New York Times, June 10, 1955

"Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail." —Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 2, 2011, 05:01 PM
Just because people said things that in hindsight, or in some cases even right then, were stupid doesn't mean that people objecting to the tablet surpassing the PC will be wrong. I bet you could find someone arguing that the laptop would surpass the desktop, or that the netbook would surpass the PC, and there will be lots of claims of technology Y surpassing technology X.
For every comment that turned out wrong, there's also a lot of comments that turned out to be right.

Also, the tablet isn't the height of evolution, it can be surpassed just as as the tablet surpassed the netbook.

Not to mention the Tablet has been around for a while now in many forms. Toshiba's early Tablet PC (the swiveling laptop) proved that the market isn't ready. The iPad fits a niche and is very popular for what it does however, its far from being a replacement.

twoodcc
Jun 2, 2011, 05:34 PM
well we shall see.

Lesser Evets
Jun 2, 2011, 07:00 PM
Don't forget that the laptop of today will be the tablet of tomorrow.

Most MacRumors posters forget that computers advance very quickly. I remember the spiffy, orange iBook in 1999. An absolute charm of a machine. Today, the iPad2 is 8x faster and far more capable (aside from the castrated OS) when paired with a bluetooth keyboard.

By 2014, 95% of the current laptop market will no doubt switch to tablets/iPads because they are easier to carry, will be good enough to do almost all the work that large percentage do, and with the right accessories offer a better ergonomic experience. Not to mention that tablets are truly portable while laptops are clumsy without a table.

Sure, you love your laptops now, and the reasons are sound. Of course, the laptop market will probably not vanish for another decade, because they are powerful and desperately needed by a niche. The majority of computer users will find the tablets becoming portable PCs capable of doing everything the need and want. And the tablet comes at an agreeable price.

The next couple decades will see the same shapes of computers continuing on, but the laptops and desktops and towers will become high-end affairs for the few who absolutely need the wild power. Unless applications cause a need for such unbridled, leading-edge, computing, the tablets will nearly completely conquer the mainstream market within a decade.

*LTD*
Jun 2, 2011, 07:54 PM
http://dissention.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/500x_bondi-blue-imac.jpg

SandynJosh
Jun 2, 2011, 08:03 PM
Everything that can be invented has been invented.
--Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. patent office, 1899 (attributed)

Laird Knox
Jun 2, 2011, 08:12 PM
Regardless of their lack of qualifications, there's never a shortage of people willing to assume the role of a futurist...

From 1987: Laptops to Supersede Desktops, Analysts Say (http://books.google.com/books?id=vDsEAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA21&dq=laptops%20will%20replace%20desktops&pg=PA21#v=onepage&q&f=false)

That issue also has an article on page 5 that states many users prefer the keyboard to that new fangled mouse. :p

AidenShaw
Jun 2, 2011, 08:17 PM
Image
http://dissention.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/500x_bondi-blue-imac.jpg

Screen: 15" 3.5"
Keyboard: full 105 keys none, simulated by overwriting half the screen with soft keys
Mouse: USB not really

lkrupp
Jun 2, 2011, 09:27 PM
The old guard, desktop PC luddites, are being handed their hats and shown the door and they don't like it. So of course they will fight to the very end, much like the command line geeks who still dream of their DEC PDP-11s. All these comments about how the desktop/laptop and keyboard are necessary for "real work" is getting old and sad. Within a very few years we probably won't need to "touch" or "type" to do "real work".

SandynJosh
Jun 2, 2011, 10:05 PM
The old guard, desktop PC luddites, are being handed their hats and shown the door and they don't like it. So of course they will fight to the very end, much like the command line geeks who still dream of their DEC PDP-11s. All these comments about how the desktop/laptop and keyboard are necessary for "real work" is getting old and sad. Within a very few years we probably won't need to "touch" or "type" to do "real work".

Already, using my mouse has caused my fingers to atrophy and shrink to fit the iPhone virtual keyboard. ;)

iSayuSay
Jun 2, 2011, 10:45 PM
Just like most Macs require a connection to an Apple server to do system and app updates?

And a person or business can currently use one Mac to sync a pile of iPads and iPhones, easily allowing these iDevices to far surpass the Macs in total usage in a home or business.

WRONG!! a computer need internet connection to download patch, update, etc. But computers can have their own content without the need of syncing. No need itunes to copy apps and music to it. No need to update their software by itunes. Unless iPad made of powerful hardware, it cant replace computer. But it can coexist with.

Mobile phones, even iPhone would never replace pc or mac. But both are needed

iSayuSay
Jun 2, 2011, 10:49 PM
The old guard, desktop PC luddites, are being handed their hats and shown the door and they don't like it. So of course they will fight to the very end, much like the command line geeks who still dream of their DEC PDP-11s. All these comments about how the desktop/laptop and keyboard are necessary for "real work" is getting old and sad. Within a very few years we probably won't need to "touch" or "type" to do "real work".

Hmm u want future where people are being contained, sterilized and 'do nothing' to get all the 'real work' done? U sit well with reality on Wall-E movue then. Human barely able to do anything again just because u dont have to do nothing to get the job done.

Welcome to Axiom, mate :p

KingCrimson
Jun 2, 2011, 11:13 PM
The old guard, desktop PC luddites, are being handed their hats and shown the door and they don't like it. So of course they will fight to the very end, much like the command line geeks who still dream of their DEC PDP-11s. All these comments about how the desktop/laptop and keyboard are necessary for "real work" is getting old and sad. Within a very few years we probably won't need to "touch" or "type" to do "real work".

So nobody will need Macs either right? :confused:

jimmyjoemccrow
Jun 2, 2011, 11:23 PM
This weekend I used my PC to transfer a bunch of pictures from a phone, resize them and upload them to ebay. I can't imagine a tablet making any of that easier without adding better multitasking and better integration with other hardware. I expect an Android tablet might do it one day, but Apple's?

singlestick
Jun 2, 2011, 11:35 PM
This weekend I used my PC to transfer a bunch of pictures from a phone, resize them and upload them to ebay. I can't imagine a tablet making any of that easier without adding better multitasking and better integration with other hardware. I expect an Android tablet might do it one day, but Apple's?

There was a time when people could not imagine a viable tablet device. There was a time when most people could not imagine a PC. The prediction that tablets will overtake PCs is meaningless. There might be some device that makes tablets look like something clumsy and old fashioned.

The only thing that will matter is what is actually made and what people do with it. These predictions by executives are nothing more than games of chicken designed to scare other executives and company shareholders.

KingCrimson
Jun 2, 2011, 11:38 PM
There was a time when people could not imagine a viable tablet device. There was a time when most people could not imagine a PC. The prediction that tablets will overtake PCs is meaningless. There might be some device that makes tablets look like something clumsy and old fashioned.

The only thing that will matter is what is actually made and what people do with it. These predictions by executives are nothing more than games of chicken designed to scare other executives and company shareholders.

As great as tablets have become, PCs are moving forward at light-speed. Now they have USB 3.0, eSata, Thunderbolt. How can tablets compete with what are true content-creation computers? Sure Grandma doesn't care, but FFS are going to dictate the future of computing by what the stupidest user needs?

LoganT
Jun 2, 2011, 11:59 PM
As great as tablets have become, PCs are moving forward at light-speed. Now they have USB 3.0, eSata, Thunderbolt. How can tablets compete with what are true content-creation computers? Sure Grandma doesn't care, but FFS are going to dictate the future of computing by what the stupidest user needs?

It's called time.

Do you honestly think it's impossible that tablets will become more powerful than our current computers, just because it's missing some ports?

KingCrimson
Jun 3, 2011, 12:00 AM
It's called time.

Do you honestly think it's impossible that tablets will become more powerful than our current computers, just because it's missing some ports?

Yeah give it another 10 years, desktops will be freakin' supercomputers by then.

*LTD*
Jun 3, 2011, 12:01 AM
So nobody will need Macs either right? :confused:

Macs will obviously change form factor and input method accordingly.

LoganT
Jun 3, 2011, 12:12 AM
Yeah give it another 10 years, desktops will be freakin' supercomputers by then.

Supercomputer would fall inline with the truck terminology that Steve Jobs used.

Reach9
Jun 3, 2011, 12:14 AM
I'll keep my MacBook Pro, even though it'll be a "truck". I can't imagine computing on a tablet, the iPad has it's own separate purpose for me now. It might change later on, but not to this extreme.

Again, unless the iPad runs Mac OS X and has the option of using a mouse (it already has the keyboard). I don't see it happening.

Winni
Jun 3, 2011, 02:59 AM
Just like laptops didn't replace desktops...

Well, laptops certainly have replaced desktops in the last two places where I have worked. At the United Nations, all staff had notebooks with docking stations, and at my current company, everybody has just laptops.

However, unless tablets will get 'real' docking stations (meaning not just a keyboard dock like the iPad has one, but a keyboard + plus + peripherals dock) and unless tablets will run 'real' operating systems and not just crippled operating systems like iOS and Android or Chrome OS, they will certainly not replace real computers anytime soon.

firewood
Jun 3, 2011, 03:38 AM
So nobody will need Macs either right?

A few customers will always need a big computer or two, just like IBM probably still sells a few big Z series mainframe computers every week and a few supercomputers every year.

Most everybody else makes do with a whole lot of the smaller cheaper stuff.

KnightWRX
Jun 3, 2011, 04:19 AM
There's 2 things that people are mixing up here :

- Tablet the form factor
- iOS

Both are not tied together. Eventually, will Tablet the form factor surpass desktops/laptops ? I'm still out on that one. Tablets are not that convenient as a working environnement in a purely form factor way. They're mostly "read-only" device, as input on them bar of carrying around a seperate keyboard/dock is painful. Also, when docked, you have to stretch out your arm and keep it up to navigate du to lack of keypad/mouse.

As for simplified OSes like iOS on other form factors that are more "read/write/work" friendly like the laptop, there's definately a trend forming here that a few MacRumors are missing in their rush to name the iPad the new king in a "post-PC" era... HP is moving to incorporate WebOS on their phones/tablets and on their laptops. Google is moving ahead with ChromeOS. Windows 8's "phone" UI... Even Apple at a certain degree with the iOS stuff that is moving to OS X's UI. I think this is more the future of computing than anything else. Much simplified application management/UIs with the complexity a lot more hidden than it is today. Just like iOS.

I like neither scenario personally.

whooleytoo
Jun 3, 2011, 06:04 AM
It's probably likely that iOS devices will outsell Macs/PCs, I like many here have one Mac, an iPhone and an iPad, so I'm already contributing to that statistic.

Tablets and PCs are only 'competing' in the sense that people have limited spending power so may choose one over the other. A tablet is a looong way from replacing a laptop/desktop for me, but it's a great complement to a Mac/PC.

By the time they add everything I needed into iOS to make me as productive as on my Mac, it would no longer be iOS.

That said, if they made a SmartCover variant with a built-in bluetooth keyboard, I'd snap it up in a second. Use the iPad as is, or snap on the cover with keyboard and you have a mini-laptop. Yummy!

KnightWRX
Jun 3, 2011, 06:09 AM
That said, if they made a SmartCover variant with a built-in bluetooth keyboard, I'd snap it up in a second. Use the iPad as is, or snap on the cover with keyboard and you have a mini-laptop. Yummy!

You mean... what Asus is doing with their Transformer and slider models ? :D

I think this is more the future than the tablet form factor itself.

whooleytoo
Jun 3, 2011, 06:32 AM
You mean... what Asus is doing with their Transformer and slider models ? :D

I think this is more the future than the tablet form factor itself.

I hadn't seen that - I like it!

But I'd prefer something a bit more lightweight that didn't add too much bulk/weight. Something not too much different from the existing Smartcover would be ideal; and knowing Apple they could engineer it!

BornAgainMac
Jun 3, 2011, 07:11 AM
The problem is that Apple could never make enough units to even come close. At least in the year 2011.

Sackvillenb
Jun 3, 2011, 08:00 AM
I think tablets and ultra-thin notebooks (e.g. macbook air) will definitely replace MOST but not ALL computers as the years go by. Especially for "normal" people, i.e. people who are not power users.

Think about, what does the average person do on a computer? Internet, email... maybe some photo and video editing... some simple documents... You can do all of that on an ipad. Of course, these functions are limited compared to a real computer, but they are still quite robust, especially when you consider that the ipad is only on it's second generation. These abilities will only improve with time, as hardware (and hopefully software) improves and evolves. Think about it, a few years from now when you can get a quad core i7 equivalent in a tablet... you can do almost everything on it... almost...

Power users will likely need a real machine of course. When I run photoshop or Logic or try and write a 200 page biology thesis... I will not be using an ipad...! :D

But honestly, right now I think the biggest limitation on tablets (especially the ipad) is the software. In part due to ios, and in part due to syncing and itunes. Not having a REAL file system is a huge hassle if you want to use lots of documents and files while retaining the flexibility of a real computer. And flexibility is one of the true advantages of a real computer. If I have a photo that I want to edit with 5 different editing programs, that's easy to do on a computer. More restricted on an ipad (though not impossible). But, as a real (but trivial example), I put some comic book files on my ipad, hoping to test out the same books in multiple comic book reader apps... but oh wait, I can't! You need to transfer them individually into each app. There is no real file system... which is silly.

Syncing is the other problem though. What use is a tablet "computer" if it HAS to be tethered to another computer??? Especially since you can only tether it to ONE itunes account. Preposterous. And what happens if your main computer you use for syncing dies? You can't just connect to another computer and keep using the ipad, nope. It will erase your files! These sort of limitations (which are arbitrary and imposed by Apple, as opposed to a real limitation like a hardware issue) are the biggest hurdles tablets like the ipad will face when people consider if they want to buy one as a primary computer. And yes I know you can make back ups of your ipad and itunes library, but that's not a real solution. It's an inconvenient and time-consuming work around.

Hopefully these things will change... in fact, they will have to over time if the ipad is to remain successful. We should all re-visit this thread 10 years from now... the tablet market will be an interesting beast 10 years from now! It's already a game changer, quite frankly... but the market and especially the devices are all still in their infancy... :)

iEvolution
Jun 3, 2011, 08:36 AM
A) Tablets will never be 27"+ of viewing pleasure
B) Keyboard shortcuts + Mouse are vastly superior than touching a screen not to mention typing.
C) In the future computers will advance as well, so even in the next several years the tablets might be better but they won't beat a computer.
D) Apple has a tight control on all their products which really limit the possibilities in comparison to non-apple computers.

Tablets are secondary devices to computers they aren't likely going to replace laptops or desktops.

Ridiculous claim quite frankly.

KnightWRX
Jun 3, 2011, 08:53 AM
A) Tablets will never be 27"+ of viewing pleasure

Though I agree that the Tablet Form Factor will never replace the Laptop/Desktop form factors, this point is wrong.

Like laptops, tablets can be hooked up to 27"+ of viewing pleasure with no problem through external ports. I already work on a 23" external from MBA very often when at my desk, completely replacing the need for a "desktop" computer (I don't need the extra computing power for coding/Unix work).

Again, I believe what is being referred here is more on the software than the hardware side. I don't think the tablet form factor will replace the laptop/desktop form factor, but the iOS style UI/simplified concepts (no filesystem management, automated app installations, etc..) might spread to other computing platforms and replace the traditional OSes we know today for consumers with simpler needs.

Atkins
Jun 3, 2011, 01:13 PM
Yeah, why carry a lap top, when you can carry an ipad, a keyboard dock and a card reading attachment.
Same size/weight as most netbooks with similar screens.

I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.
If I can do it on a device that weighs 600 grams, why bother with the laptop?


One partial exception if they ever get the full power of the Notebook into Tablet form factor and that is still questionable.
(...)
Can ARM iOS based machine run Photoshop CS 5 or Lightwave 3D?
Not yet, but don't expect it to stay that way. In half a century we went from computers fitting in rooms to what you see now and can carry in your pocket.


iPad is a real computer, but it has a real OS designed for a tablet. What you are talking about is shoehorning yesterday's technology into today's tech just so that you can continue to perform yesterday's tasks yesterday's way.
Fortunately Apple is not catering to those who are backward looking. Watch and see how iOS develops and the software written specifically for it. It will blow away what you are imagining.
Nicely put.


Huh? So Apple is trying to create a $500-$800 device that will kill it's $1200-$2500 computer lineup?
Over time, yes. Same like what happened with laptops.



The iPad is coming up on version 3 and here are a bunch of things is STILL cannot do (no matter what the excuse):
Everything that follows is mostly software. You don't think that over the years it won't evolve, right?


Think what you will. If thats what makes you feel better chief. Bottom line is constantly throwing muck around about anyone not Apple does nothing but makes Apple users look like elitists. Its so hard being the Mac guy because everyone think you are like *LTD*. Not true at all some Mac users aren't mindless followers.
Enough with stupid myths. Now even Mac people will start to believe them?

The difference though is that laptops are affordable now. Laptops back in the days were astronomically priced. Go back even to the early 2000's and a decent laptop was still in the upper $2000 range and couldn't compete with a desktop. Now laptops are just as fast as desktops and just as expensive making it very easy to own. Tablets just don't offer enough yet and still price wise are pretty expensive for what you get.
Well, the OP was giving the laptop evolution as an example. You seem to disagree with him, but you don't make a point.

Not to mention the Tablet has been around for a while now in many forms. Toshiba's early Tablet PC (the swiveling laptop) proved that the market isn't ready. The iPad fits a niche and is very popular for what it does however, its far from being a replacement.
Proved that the market isn't ready for a 3kg, expensive tablet with a full-blown OS. Nothing else.
And stop with that "niche". Everything is a niche! The iPad is enough of a replacement for the majority of people out there and has the numbers to show it. Continue watching.


WRONG!! a computer need internet connection to download patch, update, etc. But computers can have their own content without the need of syncing. No need itunes to copy apps and music to it. No need to update their software by itunes. Unless iPad made of powerful hardware, it cant replace computer. But it can coexist with.
Mobile phones, even iPhone would never replace pc or mac. But both are needed
Yes, Apple will never update iOS.


Hmm u want future where people are being contained, sterilized and 'do nothing' to get all the 'real work' done? U sit well with reality on Wall-E movue then. Human barely able to do anything again just because u dont have to do nothing to get the job done.

He said that there's not necessarily need for a keyboard for serious work and that's your conclusion??
And maybe for the sake of not being lazy, let's just go back to spear hunting?


As great as tablets have become, PCs are moving forward at light-speed. Now they have USB 3.0, eSata, Thunderbolt. How can tablets compete with what are true content-creation computers? Sure Grandma doesn't care, but FFS are going to dictate the future of computing by what the stupidest user needs?
Well. the Mac Pro is still evolving and is extremely powerful, yet somehow is less used. You think a few ports are the future?
If you can address the needs of the stupidest person, then you address those of everyone.

ThunderSkunk
Jun 3, 2011, 04:30 PM
Keyboard shortcuts + Mouse are vastly superior than touching a screen not to mention typing.

You're saying that making users memorize thousands of single-input key combinations on the static typewriter keyboard, combined with a single cursor pointing device, is superior to a dynamic, multitouch, & eventually pressure sensitive control surface? My mind just blew up at the colossal lack of vision it'd take to make that statement.

Sure, right now we have 15-20 years worth of established programs & behaviors designed around keyboard and mouse input, vs. a couple years of small-time programming effort in developing apps for the new technologies. What do you think computing looks more like 200 years from now? Windows XP?

Alphaforcex
Jun 3, 2011, 06:25 PM
I still don't get why people keep thinking that tablet can't replace desktops/laptops. I kept hearing the screens are too small, no real input devices, and no file systems, etc. What if a few years down the road there are devices that like laptops that you can buy with 12, 15, 17 or even dual screens? How about folded screens? Or screens that can interconnect with each others? Why do you all think keyboard is the best input system? The keys are designed the way they are to slow us down so that it doesn't jam when type on the typewriters. Who needs file system when everything is stored on the cloud? And who said mobile processors can't be powerful enough to do real work? How about the upcoming quad core ARM processors? I agree that the existing tablets are probably best as content consumers but I can totally see things change in the next 3-5 years. I have seen many kids who can type very fast on virtual keyboard. And not for long, they will be able to do even more without what we so call desktops/laptops.

caspersoong
Jun 4, 2011, 02:47 AM
I really see this coming. Hope Apple remains in control of the Tablet PCs.

*LTD*
Jun 4, 2011, 09:17 AM
We're getting there . . .

http://www.neowin.net/news/rumor-next-ipad-to-get-quad-core-processor#comments

KingCrimson
Jun 4, 2011, 11:33 AM
Another ridiculous, over-hyped, over-blown article. The hyperbole machine is on overdrive! The PC will never die, no matter what grandma needs!

vrDrew
Jun 4, 2011, 12:00 PM
Another ridiculous, over-hyped, over-blown article. The hyperbole machine is on overdrive! The PC will never die, no matter what grandma needs!

I'm quite sure that, at various times in the past, people said similar things about typewriters, steam trains, sailing vessels, and telegraphs.

Today's desktop and laptop PCs are the technological descendents of machines that were designed to be used in business offices or science labs. And as long as business offices and science labs continue to exist - there will be PCs.

But the fact that of the matter is that billions of people spend a lot of time doing things that have NOTHING to do with the sort of tasks you do in an office or a lab. Even businesspeople and scientists spend a lot of time doing things that don't really require a PC.

In many respects the Tablet is a far, far better format for people to do many of the "post-PC" tasks they want to do. Its lighter, easier to use. Its battery life is far superior - making it quieter, easier to move around with. It doesn't have a keyboard to get dirty and clogged. It starts instantly. It doesn't require antivirus, and the sort of time-consuming and technical maintenance the PC does. It "just works."

I read an awful lot of dismissive and condescending comments about the iPad, and the people who use them. Such comments don't impress me very much. Because, at the end of the day, the sort of people who make them haven't really thought very hard about how the REST of the world works.

firewood
Jun 4, 2011, 12:07 PM
I still don't get why people keep thinking that tablet can't replace desktops/laptops.

Read again. The word wasn't replace, it was surpass.

Just like nothing has really replaced mainframes and full-sized PC towers. It's just that fewer and fewer companies and people are buying the big old stuff compared to new cheap smaller stuff. Now a lot more PCs are sold than mainframe computers, and a more laptops are sold than full-sized tower PCs. Soon, a lot more tablets will be sold than laptops, and smartphones may already have surpassed laptops in unit sales. Fewer and fewer people will use a laptop when they have a smartphone or tablet to do many of the most common personal computing tasks.

The percentage of the world population that uses photoshop or avid (et.al.), and thus needs a computer that can run that software, is, to the nearest single digit, 0%. But even at only microscopically above 0%, mainframe computing never died. But when was the last time you saw one running in person? The same may happen to PCs.

KingCrimson
Jun 4, 2011, 12:24 PM
Read again. The word wasn't replace, it was surpass.

That's just laughable. No tablet will ever come close to matching the performance and capability of a full desktop PC. As soon as you start to need superior graphics, dual- wide-screens, massive external storage, you realize that tablets are nice accessory to the real thing.

Atlantico
Jun 4, 2011, 04:11 PM
It's great Apple execs are optimistic about the future. Perhaps tablets will surpass the number of PCs in the same future. Though there are more bicycles than cars in the world.

Meaning, it's not necessarily a statistic that has any profound meaning. I find the optimism of futurists very nice - it's just when they start do demand that they know the future.. that's when they become annoying.

kdarling
Jun 4, 2011, 04:43 PM
Why do you all think keyboard is the best input system? The keys are designed the way they are to slow us down so that it doesn't jam when type on the typewriters.

Nope.

That's a common myth, and has the engineering reason exactly backwards.

In fact, the fellow who designed QWERTY did so in order to be as FAST as possible using that particular mechanism.

It was the reason why people bought his typewriters instead of others, and thus why his design became the most popular.

Hueyfreeman
Jun 4, 2011, 04:50 PM
An amd gaming rig sits in my apartment. Why would I give up the best graphics for a limited input handheld with 1/4 of the screen size? Why would and music editor runing an entire music recording studio switch to something that has limited ports. I believe that tablets will make great strides but in the long run desktops will still be around. People will always need them for tasks that require a lot of processing power or multiple ports.

AppleScruff1
Jun 4, 2011, 05:39 PM
I really see this coming. Hope Apple remains in control of the Tablet PCs.

Hopefully they don't and another company rises to the top, making Apple a dinosaur in the modern world. Steve's stubbornness will ruin the company once again.

singlestick
Jun 5, 2011, 04:09 AM
As great as tablets have become, PCs are moving forward at light-speed. Now they have USB 3.0, eSata, Thunderbolt. How can tablets compete with what are true content-creation computers? Sure Grandma doesn't care, but FFS are going to dictate the future of computing by what the stupidest user needs?

"Content creation" is a bit of a buzz phrase that says little about how people use various devices. I know folks with powerful desktops who do nothing but play games on them, while their grandmothers run businesses with less powerful laptops running older versions of operating systems. On the other hand, we have examples of airlines using iPads to replace pounds of maps and other material.

And don't forget about ebook readers, relatively simple devices that have already significantly changed reading habits.

The iPad has succeeded in part because Apple didn't just try to replicate a PC in a tablet format, something that many competitors, and even some users, don't understand. Tablets don't have to be PCs, nor do tablets, smartphones and PCs need to have exactly the same functions and components.

Atkins
Jun 5, 2011, 05:05 AM
That's just laughable. No tablet will ever come close to matching the performance and capability of a full desktop PC. As soon as you start to need superior graphics, dual- wide-screens, massive external storage, you realize that tablets are nice accessory to the real thing.
They don't need to. You are looking at it wrong. The idea is that until today most people were buying laptops and desktops, because there weren't other options available. Most of the population doesn't need superior graphics, dual- wide-screens, massive external storage, etc.


An amd gaming rig sits in my apartment. Why would I give up the best graphics for a limited input handheld with 1/4 of the screen size? Why would and music editor runing an entire music recording studio switch to something that has limited ports.
Who said you should give it up? How did you come to that conclusion after this article??


Hopefully they don't and another company rises to the top, making Apple a dinosaur in the modern world. Steve's stubbornness will ruin the company once again.
Steve's stubbornness never ruined the company, check your history.

Sackvillenb
Jun 5, 2011, 10:25 AM
To the people who say you don't need a filesystem... Or "who needs a filesystem when you have the cloud"... What are you all smoking??? And can I have some?

Not having a true filesystem is still one of the biggest limitations of the iPad. True, for some apps you can get by... But ultimately it's a hassle.

Right now the biggest limitations on iPads is software based. The hardware is fine, and it will keep evolving. But until the iPad software becomes un-castrated (real file system, ability to sync with more than one computer, etc.) it will never become a mainstream replacement to a laptop. A supplement, sure, but not a replacement. But, the increased competition from non apple manufacturers will hopefully push apple into being more forward thinking with iOS and the iPad... And don't get me wrong, I want to see the iPad succeed, and I want to see the iPad make the full use of it's potential, and not be held back by arbitrary software impediments...

ct2k7
Jun 5, 2011, 10:36 AM
They don't need to. You are looking at it wrong. The idea is that until today most people were buying laptops and desktops, because there weren't other options available. Most of the population doesn't need superior graphics, dual- wide-screens, massive external storage, etc.



An iPad isn't exactly a laptop replacement.

singlestick
Jun 5, 2011, 11:36 AM
To the people who say you don't need a filesystem... Or "who needs a filesystem when you have the cloud"... What are you all smoking??? And can I have some?

Not having a true filesystem is still one of the biggest limitations of the iPad. True, for some apps you can get by... But ultimately it's a hassle.

Right now the biggest limitations on iPads is software based. The hardware is fine, and it will keep evolving. But until the iPad software becomes un-castrated (real file system, ability to sync with more than one computer, etc.) it will never become a mainstream replacement to a laptop. A supplement, sure, but not a replacement. But, the increased competition from non apple manufacturers will hopefully push apple into being more forward thinking with iOS and the iPad... And don't get me wrong, I want to see the iPad succeed, and I want to see the iPad make the full use of it's potential, and not be held back by arbitrary software impediments...

You have a good point about the lack of a file system on the iPad, and yet the availability of services like Dropbox seems not only obvious but in some ways a superior option. The idea of physically syncing an iPad to another computer to move files around seems primitive. Even having to sync to iTunes seems like something we should be moving away from.

But I also hope that the competition from non Apple companies lead to innovations that exploit the possibilities of tablets, rather than simpler try to turn tablets into little more than another flavor of laptop.

MacNewsFix
Jun 5, 2011, 02:22 PM
At the risk of bringing up the whole car/truck analogy (whoops!), I bet 90% of the people using computers don't need 50% of the power in their machines. If we accept that as prima facie, and taking into consideration the almost breakneck speed tablets are gaining power and abilities, is it unrealistic to expect that, in the next few years, most people will have docked tablets connected to a larger, external monitor when at their desk?

macrhino
Jun 5, 2011, 02:27 PM
This is just it. Tablets should be seen as a complement to laptops and desktops NOT a replacement. Just like laptops didn't replace desktops, tablets simply wont replace laptops. There's room in our lives for all three.

I agree, I use all three and for different purposes.

macrhino
Jun 5, 2011, 02:28 PM
Hopefully they don't and another company rises to the top, making Apple a dinosaur in the modern world. Steve's stubbornness will ruin the company once again.

Right back to crappy, barely useful products. Great!

firewood
Jun 5, 2011, 04:16 PM
That's just laughable. No tablet will ever come close to matching the performance and capability of a full desktop PC.

And no desktop PC comes close to matching the performance and capability of a current IBM Z-series mainframe.

But almost no one buys them anymore. For most people they are way too big and power hungry. Same thing will happen to full-sized desktop PCs.

And tablets have already passed full desktop PCs in performance... if you use a high-end desktop PC you got just a few years back.