PDA

View Full Version : iOS Developers Embracing Alternative Mobile Platforms, Shying Away From Mac




MacRumors
Jun 13, 2011, 09:48 AM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/13/ios-developers-embracing-alternative-mobile-platforms-shying-away-from-mac/)


http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2011/06/piper_jaffray_wwdc11_dev_survey.jpg


Fortune reports (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/13/ios-developer-survey-47-are-on-android-too-only-7-mac/) on a new survey conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference last week in which he surveyed a number of developer attendees to gain an understanding of their development interests. Interestingly, nearly half of the 45 developers surveyed reported that they are also developing for Android, while only a third revealed that they are developing BlackBerry applications.

Only 7% of surveyed developers reported that they are also developing for OS X, indicating that Apple's new Mac App Store and integrated Xcode development tools still have a significant market on the OS X side that remains untapped. A full 93% of iPhone developers unsurprisingly reported also developing for iPad, tapping into the rapidly-growing tablet market as a natural extension of their iPhone and iPod touch businesses.

While the developers unsurprisingly (given their attendance at WWDC) unanimously chose iOS as the platform that is easiest for development and best for monetization, only approximately half of the developers regarded iOS as having the highest growth potential. Even among these dedicated iOS developers, 40% of respondents cited Android as having the highest potential for future growth.

Munster attempts to compare his results to a similar survey of 20 developers conducted at WWDC 2008, but with only a handful of results from that earlier survey providing little detail and the wholesale changes in iOS and the smartphone industry since that time, it is difficult to make comparisons. For example, iOS developer interest in the Mac platform appears to have plummeted from 50% to 7% over the past three years, but it is important to remember the context of 2008 when Apple was just launching the App Store and iOS developers were commonly Mac developers who had begun dabbling in iOS applications. The reverse is now true, with over 400,000 iOS applications available and a number of developers finding that iOS development is a sustainable business on its own.

Article Link: iOS Developers Embracing Alternative Mobile Platforms, Shying Away From Mac (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/13/ios-developers-embracing-alternative-mobile-platforms-shying-away-from-mac/)



jowie
Jun 13, 2011, 09:52 AM
No figures for 2009/2010?

zioxide
Jun 13, 2011, 09:53 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

jkichline
Jun 13, 2011, 09:56 AM
I have tons of people who want me to port my one app to Mac. The trouble is that Mac OS X apps are much more complex to get started. I think it's because of the age of the platform, so there is so much to learn. I want to go to Mac, but in the meantime...

The other thing to consider is that these are "mobile" developers. That means that when you write an app for iPhone, you are going to have your clients or business want an Android version, plain and simple. It has no bearing on how much we like to develop for that platform. Let me tell you, I'd rather right iOS code all day long, but here I am debugging an Android version of the app.

rhett7660
Jun 13, 2011, 09:57 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

I couldn't agree more. How many apps are out there and they only polled 45 people. Give me a freaking break.

lordreye
Jun 13, 2011, 09:59 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Exactly. MacRumors, your story should be about how these idiots asked a handful of people and are now reporting it as fact, not just blindly reporting it. Check out this calculator that can be used to determine a statistically valid sample: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

Consultant
Jun 13, 2011, 09:59 AM
Wrong interpretation.

Higher iOS developer ratio doesn't mean they are "Shying Away From Mac"

Example

3 iOS dev
1 mac dev
25% mac developer

With an increase in both developer count it could be like this:

95 ios dev
5 mac dev
5% mac developer

Omg Mac is doomed. In reality, the ratio between the two don't tell anything.

iamkarlp
Jun 13, 2011, 10:02 AM
This, as the previous poster said, is a flawed survey. Let's not even talk about the fact their isn't enough people to statistically matter, In 2008 halve that list didn't even exist.

Also, if you are a mobile focused developer it makes a lot of sense to develop for more than one platform. However it's also understandable that if you are focused on mobile development it doesn't make sense to develop desktop unless it is a strategic decision.

I wouldn't be surprised if the survey results are mildly accurate, but this particular survey is more an express of a few peoples opinions than a broad-base survey.

pitouthestar
Jun 13, 2011, 10:03 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Exactly.

I can't believe that serious sites like Fortune publish such crap from Gene Munster.

A 20 or 45 people sample does not mean ANYTHING. But what is even stupider is using percentages on a sample inferior to 100.

Gene Munster, maybe you should look for another job.

bb426
Jun 13, 2011, 10:03 AM
I couldn't agree more. How many apps are out there and they only polled 45 people. Give me a freaking break.

Why even continue with this survey based on the sample size and the obvious bias? This shows close to nothing about developers "shying away from OS X". And comparing it to 2008 when the app store was JUST released and not including the years in between doesn't make sense.

And of course devs are going to other platforms (Android). Why not? It's still way inferior to the real App Store.

Wouldn't be surprised if they only handed these surveys to Android developers.

HelveticaNeue
Jun 13, 2011, 10:03 AM
I can understand why people are reluctant to develop for the Mac. I use iLife, iWork and Adobe CS on my Mac and have no desire for any additional programs because I use my computer for two things: work and dicking around on the internet.

However, on iOS I am constantly buying apps for iPhone and iPad because I don't use these devices just for work. I use them to be entertained and for making my life easier, which is difficult for a Mac to do because it isn't constantly in my pocket, doesn't know where I am, and isn't suited for some tasks which require (or are made better) through a touch interface.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 10:05 AM
Takeaways from the article:


If you want to make money, iOS is your platform of choice

iOS has highest potential for future growth (see above for one of the main reasons) even among an ocean of Android devices that are based on an "open" platform, but other platforms are growing as well. There will always be a market for other platforms, even if they're total junk. The race to the bottom is always happening.

iOS growth faster than Mac/OS X. Suggests (more evidence to add to the pile) that we are definitely in the Post-PC era.

Atlantico
Jun 13, 2011, 10:06 AM
Hmm would have been nicer to see more developers surveyed, after all there were thousands in attendance, but still I don't know how useful this survey could have been ... after all this WWDC was iOS focused and expected to be the venue for the release of iOS 5 - but then wedged Lion in there rather late in the game (the tickets for WWDC 11 were sold out in the first hours they were available)

Ergo, the people who attended (and paid or had paid for them the $1000 fee) were there on iOS business and little more. Nobody was expecting anything too interesting on the Mac development front (and indeed, despite Lion, there wasn't really anything that interesting on the Mac front)

Thus this survey shows, that iOS developers develop apps for iOS, and are quite content. There are fewer Mac developers, but then again, Apple doesn't care too much about the Mac, so why should developers? :cool:

kalsta
Jun 13, 2011, 10:06 AM
The drop from 50% to 7% (even if the survey results were statistically significant) doesn't mean developers are 'shying away from Mac'. It's quite likely that a large percentage of developers attending WWDC now are relatively new to Xcode development, having been drawn in by the lure of the iOS cash cow. That's to be expected given the platform's success, and says nothing about the actual number of people developing for the Mac.

In reality, the ratio between the two don't tell anything.

Edit: I just noticed your comment. That's essentially what I was trying to say too.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 10:08 AM
I can understand why people are reluctant to develop for the Mac. I use iLife, iWork and Adobe CS on my Mac and have no desire for any additional programs because I use my computer for two things: work and dicking around on the internet.

However, on iOS I am constantly buying apps for iPhone and iPad because I don't use these devices just for work. I use them to be entertained and for making my life easier, which is difficult for a Mac to do because it isn't constantly in my pocket, doesn't know where I am, and isn't suited for some tasks which require (or are made better) through a touch interface.

Off-topic: even after all these years, Helvetica is still the best damn sans out there. In fact, it reads better than some of the well-designed serifs in use today.

Matthew Yohe
Jun 13, 2011, 10:10 AM
Less concerning is the sample size, more is the lack of inclusion of if this is the respondent's first WWDC. (many hands were raised when some session audiences were asked if this was their first WWDC).

I wouldn't draw the conclusion that people are shying away from Mac development. Standing in line waiting for the keynote, I found many first timers.

jonnysods
Jun 13, 2011, 10:12 AM
Thats a very small survey to be throwing out stats as big as that. Take it easy guys. It's like when they poll 1000 people to state what the entire country thinks about who they will vote for in the next election.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 10:13 AM
There are fewer Mac developers, but then again, Apple doesn't care too much about the Mac, so why should developers? :cool:

Apple cares a little more about what is next, than what is now. They don't hold a static position with a paradigm for too long. When others are seeking to maintain and extend the paradigm (often in redundant, poorly conceived ways) like MS, Apple is looking to take us to the next one.

It's up to you to make the costs vs. benefits analysis.

twochoicestom
Jun 13, 2011, 10:16 AM
If I'd have written a statistical analysis like this for my dissertation. I'd be out on my arse right now.

Misleading headline based on a ***** survey.

Beaverman3001
Jun 13, 2011, 10:19 AM
No way this is an accurate survey with so few people polled.

Surreal
Jun 13, 2011, 10:20 AM
not a great sample size but i think there is SOME truth to the idea. I actually think it has more to do with conveniences like UIKit and other frameworks that make iOS different to work on that then mac.

MonkeySee....
Jun 13, 2011, 10:21 AM
I think this survey was compiled by a school kid with clipboard who couldn't be bothered to do the survey in the first place.

Bubba Satori
Jun 13, 2011, 10:21 AM
Oh dear...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_d2fA7WcvcmI/SXO7KgOUYrI/AAAAAAAAABA/ooHXNhbyO4E/S1600-R/Blog+Logo.jpg

Theseanything
Jun 13, 2011, 10:22 AM
Wrong interpretation.

Higher iOS developer ratio doesn't mean they are "Shying Away From Mac"

Example

3 iOS dev
1 mac dev
25% mac developer

With an increase in both developer count it could be like this:

95 ios dev
5 mac dev
5% mac developer

Omg Mac is doomed. In reality, the ratio between the two don't tell anything.

Completely agree... Poor survey. Sample size way too small to show significance, in some cases. Also, surely they're embracing other platforms less... if in 2008, 30% developed for "no other platforms" and now 36% developed for "no other platforms"....

jntdigital
Jun 13, 2011, 10:23 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Exactly. I thought there are over 300K registered iOS developers.

We have been looking and talking about the idea of porting our app to other mobile platforms. There still seems to be an issue of whether you can make any money on Android. A good example is Rovio, where angry birds is free on android but 99 cents on iOS:

“Free is the way to go with Android. Nobody has been successful selling content on Android. We will offer a way to remove the ads by paying for the app, but we don’t expect that to be a huge revenue stream.”

Read the full interview (http://technmarketing.com/iphone/peter-vesterbacka-maker-of-angry-birds-talks-about-the-birds-apple-android-nokia-and-palmhp/)

While Android cant be ignored, we are finding it hard to justify the time its going to take to develop an app that we want to make a profit on on the Android market. Our app is a business app.

Of all the other platforms though, Blackberry is most appealing because of their enterprise user base, though it seems to be shrinking according to this article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/federal-government-loosens-its-grip-on-the-blackberry/2011/05/27/AG7wW1EH_story.html).

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 10:23 AM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPad; U; CPU OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)


Oh dear...

Image (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_d2fA7WcvcmI/SXO7KgOUYrI/AAAAAAAAABA/ooHXNhbyO4E/S1600-R/Blog+Logo.jpg)




There's nothing really negative or unexpected in the (poorly executed) survey.

I think people have more of a problem with how the survey was performed than with the results.

beg_ne
Jun 13, 2011, 10:26 AM
How do you go to a weeklong conference where 5,200 people are attending and get less than 100 to participate?

I guess the majority of devs were smart enough to stay away from the riff rat and just ignore them.

Seriously I can't believe MacRumors (and other Mac sites) is just regurgitating these numbers without calling out the fact that the numbers are basically worthless.

miografico
Jun 13, 2011, 10:26 AM
I have tons of people who want me to port my one app to Mac. The trouble is that Mac OS X apps are much more complex to get started. I think it's because of the age of the platform, so there is so much to learn. I want to go to Mac, but in the meantime...

The other thing to consider is that these are "mobile" developers. That means that when you write an app for iPhone, you are going to have your clients or business want an Android version, plain and simple. It has no bearing on how much we like to develop for that platform. Let me tell you, I'd rather right iOS code all day long, but here I am debugging an Android version of the app.

In the enterprise space we counsel companies (it's mostly small companies who have this issue) to stick with one mobile platform. In most larger organizations this is a no brainer because they don't want devices they do not control accessing the corporate network: so they choose one either iPhones, Android based phones or BB's etc.

The smaller organizations are the ones that tend to have too much device scattering (dif. brands) and cannot make up their mind about what platform to stick to.

When security is key as a company you control your mobile devices as you are the ones handing them out to your employees.

NightFox
Jun 13, 2011, 10:28 AM
As well as the ridiculously small sample size, I'm not convinced WWDC is the place to get an accurate picture. I'd have imagined that the proportion of iOS developers to Mac developers is increasing every year.

hugothomsen
Jun 13, 2011, 10:29 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Agree. Red Top level of news - completely irrelevant.

dacapo
Jun 13, 2011, 10:29 AM
Less concerning is the sample size, more is the lack of inclusion of if this is the respondent's first WWDC. (many hands were raised when some session audiences were asked if this was their first WWDC).

I wouldn't draw the conclusion that people are shying away from Mac development. Standing in line waiting for the keynote, I found many first timers.

Sure, but neither does being a first time attendee of WWDC necessarily imply that the developer is new to iOS development.

Regardless of the (in)validity of the survey and the article, it's definitely easier as an iOS developer to branch out into Android than to take up Mac programming, so the low number makes sense to me. (Whether it's "shying away" or "seeing Android as having a lower entry barrier" or whatever spin you put on it, from a technical perspective, that's just the way it is.)

Atlantico
Jun 13, 2011, 10:31 AM
Apple cares a little more about what is next, than what is now. They don't hold a static position with a paradigm for too long. When others are seeking to maintain and extend the paradigm (often in redundant, poorly conceived ways) like MS, Apple is looking to take us to the next one.

It's up to you to make the costs vs. benefits analysis.

Excuse while I vomit (... goes and vomits) .. I lose my breakfast when someone uses the word "paradigm" and expects to be taken seriously at the same time as he blatantly explains *what* Apple is thinking and *why*. Sad.

Hahaha your explaination is a complete fabrication and fantasy. Apple sure went for the next big thing when they started offering webmail for money (aka dotMac/mobileMe) or when they broke ground with on-line movie rentals in the USA (how's that for also-ran??) or when Apple made the G4 cube, now that was a prescient move... how's that amazing Cube market doing these days?

Apple is pretty decent at making sucessful products, but it doesn't make a lot of them. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. Everything else, every single thing made by Apple has been a failure. Even while Steve Jobs has been at the helm. Both times.

Apple isn't taking us anywhere in particular or inventing new "paradigms" (I feel a bit dirty myself when I use that marketingspeek) it is just into making money and milking every cent out of its current success.

Everyone must have a credit card and an active Apple App/Music store account to be Apple users now. Is that your paradigm shift? Good for you.

(golfclap) :cool:

dustinsc
Jun 13, 2011, 10:32 AM
I've only taken one statistics class in my life, but I can tell you that this doesn't mean a whole lot due to sample size.

gnasher729
Jun 13, 2011, 10:36 AM
Apparently developers supporting both MacOS X and iOS were so busy with one session after the other that they had no time to fill out any survey questionnaires.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 10:43 AM
Excuse while I vomit (... goes and vomits) .. I lose my breakfast when someone uses the word "paradigm" and expects to be taken seriously at the same time as he blatantly explains *what* Apple is thinking and *why*. Sad.

I'm sorry you don't like the reality of the situation. iPod, iPhone, iPad. ALL major paradigm shifts. To a lesser degree the Mac + GUI.

Hahaha your explaination is a complete fabrication and fantasy. Apple sure went for the next big thing when they started offering webmail for money (aka dotMac/mobileMe) or when they broke ground with on-line movie rentals in the USA (how's that for also-ran??) or when Apple made the G4 cube, now that was a prescient move... how's that amazing Cube market doing these days?

You forgot iTunes, iPod, iPhone, iPad. Not only were they successful, the entire industry changed pace right along with them. Apple has had some unsuccessful products. However the ones that were/are successful, have changed the entire game and how a lot of us think about tech. All these mobile developers, app stores, smartphones that we see today, would not have been possible without Apple. Some of the biggest shifts have been instituted single-handedly by Apple - almost out of nowhere. In fact, some people couldn't even comprehend what was happening at the time. I remember what these forums were like when Apple demo'd the iPad. A mixture of total confusion, excitement, everything. Planet of the Apes. Some people had no idea what this was for. And now . . . the iPad has become a market staple and everyone else is following suit.


Apple is pretty decent at sucessful products, but it doesn't make a lot makingof them. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. Everything else, every single thing made by Apple has been a failure. Even while Steve Jobs has been at the helm. Both times.

See above. their successes have been so great, and so far-reaching, that most of their failures have been forgotten. We tend to chuckle about them - the hockey puck mouse, the Pippin. But that's all anyone really does. They're good for a chuckle. Because the face of the industry today in terms of rich mobile platforms (which is a major chunk of the industry) has been designed and brought to you by Apple. And Eric Schmidt's crib notes.

They're unique in the industry. Which is why a lot of normal industry rules either don't apply to them or fall apart completely.


Apple isn't taking us anywhere in particular or inventing new "paradigms"


They already have. Several times. And they're doing it as you and I type on this forum.

Everyone must have a credit card and an active Apple App/Music store account to be Apple users now. Is that your paradigm shift? Good for you.


As you type away on your Android phone's touchscreen, say "Thanks Steve." Just once. That's good enough.

illitrate23
Jun 13, 2011, 10:43 AM
disgusting that these analysts get paid the big bucks, and the world listens to what they say and markets rise and fall on their (usually quite random) predictions... and despite all of this, he could only put in enough effort to survey 45 people. in any other industry you'd be having to explain to your boss why you performed such a shoddy job.

kalsta
Jun 13, 2011, 10:47 AM
Apple cares a little more about what is next, than what is now. They don't hold a static position with a paradigm for too long. When others are seeking to maintain and extend the paradigm (often in redundant, poorly conceived ways) like MS, Apple is looking to take us to the next one.

Excuse while I vomit (... goes and vomits) …

Apple is pretty decent at making sucessful products, but it doesn't make a lot of them. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. Everything else, every single thing made by Apple has been a failure. Even while Steve Jobs has been at the helm. Both times.

Apple isn't taking us anywhere in particular or inventing new "paradigms" (I feel a bit dirty myself when I use that marketingspeek) it is just into making money and milking every cent out of its current success.

…says one religious follower to the other. Sigh.

Grimace
Jun 13, 2011, 10:48 AM
Seriously? 45 respondents? Statistically, it is not significant or even close to a sample size where you could draw any conclusions.

kalsta
Jun 13, 2011, 10:50 AM
I'm sorry you don't like the reality of the situation. iPod, iPhone, iPad. ALL major paradigm shifts. To a lesser degree the Mac + GUI.

To a lesser degree? Are you serious? I'm guessing you're too young to remember DOS.

nwcs
Jun 13, 2011, 10:52 AM
The sample size is more than plenty if this was truly a random sampling of attendees. But it likely wasn't so the results will be skewed. I'd also be hesitant to take anything meaningful away from such a survey.

Atlantico
Jun 13, 2011, 10:53 AM
I'm sorry you don't like the reality of the situation. iPod, iPhone, iPad. ALL major paradigm shifts. To a lesser degree the Mac + GUI.


It's not what you say, it's how you say it. Either way, the reality of the situation has nothing to do with your opinion. See.


You forgot iTunes, iPod, iPhone, iPad.


Nope, I mentioned them, you just have to be able to read instead of making guesses as to what I wrote. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. That includes iTunes/iPod and iOS includes iPhone/iPad.

Read. Comprehend. Post. ... I'm sure that's the oldest rule of forums.


See above. their successes ha e been so great, and so far-reaching, that most of their failures have been forgotten. We tend to chuckle about them - the hockey pick mouse, the Pippin. But that's all anyone really does. They're good for a chuckle. Because the face of the industry today in terms of rich mobile platforms (which is major chunk of the industry) has been designed and brought to you by Apple. And Eric Schmidt's crib notes.


Haha yes we have forgotten them so much, we both seem to remember them quite clearly! Fascinating.

The fact is, Apple screws up a lot, and yes it probably doesn't matter much - however, spare us the bullpucky that just because you want to forget Apple's mistakes that Apple is thus *incapable* of making mistakes again. Plenty of them.

DotMac wasn't a success. Did Apple learn from that? No. They made MobileMe. Was that a success? No. Did Apple learn from that? Who knows. Perhaps?

Thus you're full of it when you claim to know that Apple always (to paraphrase) skates where the puck is going to be, not where it is at the moment .... problem is, sometimes there isn't a game of icehockey going on.


They already have. Several times. And they're doing it as you and I type on this forum.


No, not really.


As you type away on your Android phone's touchscreen, say "Thanks Steve." Just once. That's good enough.

I don't have an Android, I have a Mac and an iPod touch. What are you recommending Android phones? And here I was, thinking you to be the stereotypical, non-critical, overpraising, blatant Apple fangirl.

My mistake. :cool:

gctwnl
Jun 13, 2011, 10:54 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.Yes. I'd be interested to see a true statistician produce some numbers about the reliabilities of these results. Especially the 20 or so surveyed (and we must assume this was a true random sample) do not give one a feel of confidence in these numbers.

Lies, big lies and statistics, baby!

jmoore5196
Jun 13, 2011, 10:55 AM
Considering the source - and the small sample size - this story should have been a non-starter.

Were it up to Forbes and Fortune, Apple would have tanked under Gil Amelio. Today on Fortune Tech, for example, you can find pieces on Michael Dell, Bill Gates and dire portent about Apple's stock share price. There's also a gloating bit about the stock price drop after Job's iCloud keynote.

Bottom line: These guys don't get it. The world has moved on from Microsoft. Time to stop living in the past - and hoping for a return to glory that will not materialize - and embrace change. But change is the very antithesis of what these folks stand for, isn't it?

Atlantico
Jun 13, 2011, 10:56 AM
…says one religious follower to the other. Sigh.

I'm pro-Macintosh .. hello?

ratzzo
Jun 13, 2011, 10:56 AM
At the end of the day, the developer will invest his time in whatever platform yields the most revenue, be it iOS, Android, RIM.. you name it. Apple have it easy, take less of a cut on the App Store profits and more devs will feel attracted. 2 x 5 is the same as 5 x 2.

jmpnop
Jun 13, 2011, 10:56 AM
Takeaways from the article:


If you want to make money, iOS is your platform of choice

iOS has highest potential for future growth (see above for one of the main reasons) even among an ocean of Android devices that are based on an "open" platform, but other platforms are growing as well. There will always be a market for other platforms, even if they're total junk. The race to the bottom is always happening.

iOS growth faster than Mac/OS X. Suggests (more evidence to add to the pile) that we are definitely in the Post-PC era.


Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD. iPad (and tablets in general) are just fancy toys which are meant for basic things. They can't do anything productive. And how the hell do you think a fancy toy can replace a real computer? Unless you're a 10 year kid playing casual games and trolling on forums, I don't see tablets replacing anything.

Mr.damien
Jun 13, 2011, 10:59 AM
The only thing I will remember is that 100% of developers said that iOS SDK is the best and iOS is the best place to earn money.

Something that has been greatly ignored by this article ...

Popeye206
Jun 13, 2011, 11:00 AM
Wrong interpretation.

Higher iOS developer ratio doesn't mean they are "Shying Away From Mac"

Example

3 iOS dev
1 mac dev
25% mac developer

With an increase in both developer count it could be like this:

95 ios dev
5 mac dev
5% mac developer

Omg Mac is doomed. In reality, the ratio between the two don't tell anything.

+1

I actually think some of the other data is more telling. The fact that they feel the iOS platform is profitable. The fact that iOS is the easiest to develop for, etc... I can also see why they think Android is the biggest opportunity. It's a huge growing market, but I think it's a developing opportunity because there is not as much organization as there is on iOS and most consumers have to be lead to the water to drink.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 11:01 AM
Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD. iPad (and tablets in general) are just fancy toys which are meant for basic things.

Wrong. They are markers. Guideposts that point us in the direction tech is headed. They form the basis of the strategies of a lot of major tech players (i.e., Motorola, Samsung, HTC, RIM.) The iPad demo (and its current success) is really a watershed moment for the industry at large.

LOL, that's some "toy." For some reason they seem to do more and more with each passing month. It's quite astounding.

Mr.damien
Jun 13, 2011, 11:02 AM
Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD. iPad (and tablets in general) are just fancy toys which are meant for basic things. They can't do anything productive. And how the hell do you think a fancy toy can replace a real computer? Unless you're a 10 year kid playing casual games and trolling on forums, I don't see tablets replacing anything.

Told that to SAP that brings iPad to all of its employees, or deutsche bank or ... *a lot of company here*.

That's funny because now that Apple are releasing all thoses toys, their market share in corporate environment has never been so strong.

Theseanything
Jun 13, 2011, 11:03 AM
The only thing I will remember is that 100% of developers said that iOS SDK is the best and iOS is the best place to earn money.

Something that has been greatly ignored by this article ...

Well, only 45 did... :S

ten-oak-druid
Jun 13, 2011, 11:04 AM
Android has a potential for growth. But no potential for real profit for developers. That will be the downfall of Android. I wonder what OS will take its place as a competitor for iOS in a few years?

AppleScruff1
Jun 13, 2011, 11:06 AM
Exactly. MacRumors, your story should be about how these idiots asked a handful of people and are now reporting it as fact, not just blindly reporting it. Check out this calculator that can be used to determine a statistically valid sample: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

This shouldn't even be a story. It is a waste of bandwith. It isn't a good survey at all.

Amazing Iceman
Jun 13, 2011, 11:07 AM
It's not that iOS Developers shy away from Mac development. It's just that in reality they are focused in developing mobile applications, so developing Mac apps would be a deviation of what they do.

It does make a lot of sense them to expand their business to other Mobile platforms in order to increase their potential revenue. And Android is the most desirable; no need for a survey to know that fact. Regarding BlackBerry, take advantage while still exists; I don't see a future for it.

Some developers do both, as their iOS solutions requires a Mac /PC counterpart for complete work.

IMO, this survey was based on a small random number of developers but still reflects the general opinion. It would be more unbiased (as all interviewed already are iOS Developers) if next time is done at a Developers Conference that is not focused on iOS; an Android event perhaps?

Collected
Jun 13, 2011, 11:08 AM
I'm not sure I have much time for a survey where one year only 20 people responded to the questions.

myemailisjustin
Jun 13, 2011, 11:11 AM
I'd like to see a study that determines how many developers there actually are, not how many developer accounts there are. I know I personally represent 4 iOS developers, but I'm only 1 person. I can't be the only developer that gets counted several times in these studies.

Trek2100
Jun 13, 2011, 11:13 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Agree totally. This is BS. Let's see, there were somewhere around 2,500 in attendance. If all were developers then 250 would be a more realistic sample. Anything less than 10% is meaningless. And, it would have to be a 10% sample of all who developed for the iOS platform. The title is a little misleading as well. iOS and MAC are two totally different platforms. I understand what is meant, at least I think so:confused:.

ksgant
Jun 13, 2011, 11:14 AM
Ever notice that Android is always the OS that's going to be something one day...but isn't quite there yet? It's going to have the biggest growth in terms of monetizing. It's going to be the most used tablet OS one day. It's going to be embedded in every kind of device in the future.

It has the potential that one day maybe it will kind of perhaps be the most...best....highest....stable....blah....blah....blah....

We've heard this song and dance before. Linux was pointed to as to be the future of computing. How many years did we endure "THIS is the year of Linux on the Desktop"? Now, that's pretty much dying:

The Linux Desktop Experience is Killing Linux on the Desktop (http://batsov.com/Linux/Windows/Rant/2011/06/11/linux-desktop-experience-killing-linux-on-the-desktop.html)

:p

Mr. Gates
Jun 13, 2011, 11:18 AM
Android has a potential for growth. But no potential for real profit for developers. That will be the downfall of Android. I wonder what OS will take its place as a competitor for iOS in a few years?

Windows Phone :)

It's being copied by Apple right now with iOS 5

Apple needs to play catch up now.

It's alway Apple VS. Microsoft

You knew that

toddybody
Jun 13, 2011, 11:18 AM
Makes perfect sense. The devs themselves are focused on mobile, touch screen oriented applications. Nothing to do with capabilities, they just know that the majority of iOS apps don't translate well into a desktop enviromemt. Would I play Infinity Blade with a mouse and keyboard? Naaa;)

VulchR
Jun 13, 2011, 11:21 AM
....
Lies, big lies and statistics, baby!

Statistics don't lie, people do. Or they BS (http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7929.html).

To make matters worse, the journalists who report statistics couldn't calculate their way out of a wet paper bag, hence all the errors in the popular press.

the8thark
Jun 13, 2011, 11:22 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.
Mac Rumors think a survey of 45 people is worthy of front page news. Whereas many other good news stories only make 2nd page news. Mac Rumors really need to choose what stories make the front page much more carefully. Yes the majority of people will read and go wow. But the educated of us out there just shake our heads and wonder why we post on stories as bad as these.

kalsta
Jun 13, 2011, 11:23 AM
I'm pro-Macintosh .. hello?

Hello. :)

Apple is pretty decent at making sucessful products, but it doesn't make a lot of them. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. Everything else, every single thing made by Apple has been a failure. Even while Steve Jobs has been at the helm. Both times.

Forgive me, but that did sound a lot like a religious anti-Apple statement. You know, I could say that the Beatles didn't have a lot of successful products — only some songs, and everything else (the films, Apple Records, whatever) was a failure. There may be some truth in that, but my choice of words would be a pretty blatant misrepresentation of the band's success and influence. Wouldn't you agree?

autrefois
Jun 13, 2011, 11:35 AM
Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD.

It's Apple who called this the "Post PC" world. While much cannot be gleaned from the survey in the OP (as stated many times above), I'm not sure why an iOS developer would want to make the jump over to Mac when it's clear that Apple thinks computers are on their way out. "PC free" and "Post PC" were two key phrases from this year's WWDC (not to mention that Jobs said they are going to "demote" the computer to be just another device for iCloud). I didn't hear any "boos" when any of these were mentioned.

I'd really like to be able to have an iPad as a laptop replacement, but it just can't fit my work needs (it doesn't even have a full-featured word processor). There is NO way the i-devices are ready for primetime as a replacement for doing actual work for the vast majority of people.

But were it not for work, I'd sure be tempted to ditch my laptop for an iPad, as I'm sure many are doing. If Steve Jobs makes it clear that PCs -- presumably including Macs -- are on the way out, and Apple continue(s) the secrecy that they're known for about future plans, why switch to developing for Macs? What if Lion turns out to be their last true desktop OS?

I very much *WANT* developers to stay on the Mac for many years to come, but with the signals being sent by the media and Apple about the impending downfall of PCs, I'm not hopeful for much new in terms of development for the Mac.

JHankwitz
Jun 13, 2011, 11:46 AM
The bonehead that posted this article is obviously totally uneducated. A sample of 45 from the thousands out there does not provide any useable data. The numbers being presented are meaningless.

toddybody
Jun 13, 2011, 11:47 AM
Takeaways from the article:


If you want to make money, iOS is your platform of choice

iOS has highest potential for future growth (see above for one of the main reasons) even among an ocean of Android devices that are based on an "open" platform, but other platforms are growing as well. There will always be a market for other platforms, even if they're total junk. The race to the bottom is always happening.

iOS growth faster than Mac/OS X. Suggests (more evidence to add to the pile) that we are definitely in the Post-PC era.


Your bias against anything non apple only reflects you as an ignorant and unreasonable person(from a tech consumer perspective...I'm sure you're an awesome person in all other regards). Enhanced notifications and consolidated messaging are two great examples of how your infallible OS hasnt shaped the market...You have RIM and Google to thank for those.
We get it, you love your iPhone...as do I and many good folks here. Apply some clear perspective next time you post.

ksgant
Jun 13, 2011, 11:49 AM
The bonehead that posted this article is obviously totally uneducated. A sample of 45 from the thousands out there does not provide any useable data. The numbers being presented are meaningless.

Not unlike the Nielsen Norman Group recently putting out a "study" that states that "People Have No Clue How To Use iPad Apps" (http://www.businessinsider.com/nielsen-ipad-apps-are-too-difficult-to-use-2011-5). Yet, when you read the fine print, they only surveyed 16 people. Yes, SIXTEEN fricken people. :rolleyes:

jmpnop
Jun 13, 2011, 11:49 AM
Wrong. They are markers. Guideposts that point us in the direction tech is headed. They form the basis of the strategies of a lot of major tech players (i.e., Motorola, Samsung, HTC, RIM.) The iPad demo (and its current success) is really a watershed moment for the industry at large.

It points us in the direction where portable tech is headed and not PCs. It forms the basis of strategies of major mobile tech companies. PCs are still used for professional work like audio, video, business, scientific research etc. Casual things like browsing, email, SNS which were done on PCs are now done on tablets and thats the only thing that iPad has changed.

LOL, that's some "toy." For some reason they seem to do more and more with each passing month. It's quite astounding.

It is gaining more capability but nowhere sufficient to replace full-fledged PCs. iWork, Adobe apps, etc will never be a substitute for Microsoft Office, Adobe CS5 and other desktop applications. iPad was never designed to replace PCs in the first place. It doesn't make sense to talk about it. Apple lost the PC war long ago, its a fact. Apple's success or mobile companies working hard on tablets seeing Apple's iPad has got nothing to do with it.


It's Apple who called this the "Post PC" world. While much cannot be gleaned from the survey in the OP (as stated many times above), I'm not sure why an iOS developer would want to make the jump over to Mac when it's clear that Apple thinks computers are on their way out. "PC free" and "Post PC" were two key phrases from this year's WWDC (not to mention that Jobs said they are going to "demote" the computer to be just another device for iCloud). I didn't hear any "boos" when any of these were mentioned.

I'd really like to be able to have an iPad as a laptop replacement, but it just can't fit my work needs (it doesn't even have a full-featured word processor). There is NO way the i-devices are ready for primetime as a replacement for doing actual work for the vast majority of people.

But were it not for work, I'd sure be tempted to ditch my laptop for an iPad, as I'm sure many are doing. If Steve Jobs makes it clear that PCs -- presumably including Macs -- are on the way out, and Apple continue(s) the secrecy that they're known for about future plans, why switch to developing for Macs? What if Lion turns out to be their last true desktop OS?

I very much *WANT* developers to stay on the Mac for many years to come, but with the signals being sent by the media and Apple about the impending downfall of PCs, I'm not hopeful for much new in terms of development for the Mac.

Steve Jobs is pushing this post-PC thing because they lost the PC war. Its clearly evident iPad is not meant for real work. Computer finds extensive use in every field, I don't think they will go anytime soon. What may happen is PCs/Macs will get restricted to professional work. This is also unlikely because many people prefer PC/Mac over tablets because of bigger screen and functionality.

bpaluzzi
Jun 13, 2011, 11:52 AM
Nope, I mentioned them, you just have to be able to read instead of making guesses as to what I wrote. The Macintosh, the iPod and the iOS are the only successful Apple products. That includes iTunes/iPod and iOS includes iPhone/iPad.


Even if it were true (which it's not), that's still a pretty large market. Are you seriously trying to say those are their "only" successes like it's a negative?

bpaluzzi
Jun 13, 2011, 11:54 AM
Unless you're a 10 year kid playing casual games and trolling on forums, I don't see tablets replacing anything.

Oh, sweet irony

ten-oak-druid
Jun 13, 2011, 11:55 AM
Windows Phone :)

It's being copied by Apple right now with iOS 5

Apple needs to play catch up now.

It's alway Apple VS. Microsoft

You knew that

LOL

You are probably right about Windows replacing Android in a few years. But I don't think it will be a strong competitor unless developers can make some money.

scyap
Jun 13, 2011, 11:55 AM
how could you call this a survey (and worth posting onto the frontpage) when you're comparing with.... almost everything N/A...

and the amount of respondants are... fail...

Anonymous Freak
Jun 13, 2011, 11:56 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Not to mention the completely different set of questions.

All the "na" results from 2008 aren't due to the answer being 0, they're due to the question not being asked.

really, what we have is that 20 people said they were iOS developers, 10 Mac developers, at what was still predominantly a Mac developer conference (iOS development had *JUST* been announced,) in 2008. In 2011, we had 45 iOS developers and 4 Mac developers at what has become predominantly an iOS developer conference.

WebOS, Windows Phone 7, and Android didn't even exist when the survey was taken in 2008!

caddisfly
Jun 13, 2011, 12:01 PM
...unless they also asked how many were interested in developing for "windows" or "linux" as well as "os x", the survey strikes me as meaningless

generally
ios<-->webos<-->android<-->blackberry<-->windowsmobile

and then

osx<-->windows<-->linux

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 12:05 PM
It points us in the direction where portable tech is headed and not PCs.

For PCs, in their current form, the direction is down. Unless they're taking cues from mobile tech. Mobile tech is the well from which everyone drinks. The mobile sphere is currently the main influence for nearly all consumer tech.

If you're a consumer tech company and you don't have a smartphone/app store/tablet strategy, you're doing it wrong. And if you deal in the enterprise side, you'd better get moving *now* before someone else does in a big way.

Chupa Chupa
Jun 13, 2011, 12:06 PM
If "analysts" rely on this type of non-survey no one they are wrong so often.

First thing I see is that the headline here is flat out wrong. The results from '08 vs 10 on developing for iOS are both 100% so how is that viewed as "shying" away? iOS developers are not necessarily Mac developers. I don't see the correlation.

Next, developers are business people. Of course they are going to develop for other platforms if their is a market for their software and it's easy to port or recode. But what does that say about iOS? Nothing really. The survey does not indicate developers are abandoning iOS.

The survey size is ridiculously tiny based on the total number of WWDC attendees.

kalsta
Jun 13, 2011, 12:08 PM
"PC free" and "Post PC" were two key phrases from this year's WWDC (not to mention that Jobs said they are going to "demote" the computer to be just another device for iCloud).



If Steve Jobs makes it clear that PCs -- presumably including Macs -- are on the way out…

Steve has made no such thing clear. Based on everything I've heard him say, I believe he imagines a world where the iPad becomes far more prevalent than PCs. Within the home, I think this makes some sense. The iPad is a great device for the sort of activities people typically use a PC for at home — casual web browsing, social interaction, and certainly games. It's portable, compact, affordable, and most of all fun. So where previously a family might have owned four PCs, that family might, in the future, own three iPads and one PC. Steve described this world by comparing PCs to trucks and tablets to cars — there are a lot more cars on the road, but trucks still have their place.

So, 'Post PC' is a term given to an era where touchscreen devices like the iPad start to dominate. It doesn't imply the death of the PC.

Does Steve really believe in such a world? Probably. But in a way he's also using it (as a marketing term) to try and create that future sooner rather than later — because Apple has the early lead when it comes to tablets, and it's a lead they dearly want to cement as quickly as possible. If they can get people to believe the iPad is the future, then some of those people might just hold off on buying that next PC in favour of an iPad, and I think Steve's confident enough that they'll be sold by the experience of owning one.

I predict (and you can quote me in ten years) that the Mac still has a long and healthy life ahead of it. Just don't expect Apple to pour the same amount of advertising into it as it does for iOS devices.

jpine
Jun 13, 2011, 12:11 PM
Takeaways from the article:


If you want to make money, iOS is your platform of choice

iOS has highest potential for future growth (see above for one of the main reasons) even among an ocean of Android devices that are based on an "open" platform, but other platforms are growing as well. There will always be a market for other platforms, even if they're total junk. The race to the bottom is always happening.

iOS growth faster than Mac/OS X. Suggests (more evidence to add to the pile) that we are definitely in the Post-PC era.


Browse ANY of the forums of the different SDKs out there that can create both iOS and Android apps. (The Corona SDK I use is one such example) I have as of yet to find a developer who is making anywhere near the same amount of money with his or her Android app as they are with the same app created for iOS.

toddybody
Jun 13, 2011, 12:14 PM
For PCs, in their current form, the direction is down. Unless they're taking cues from mobile tech. Mobile tech is the well from which everyone drinks. The mobile sphere is currently the main influence for nearly all consumer tech.


The new W8 tile view JIVES with your comment....that said, its a nightmare. PC's (Macs included) need a desktop, folders, and other old fogie stuff:p

JoeDMD
Jun 13, 2011, 12:31 PM
how's that amazing Cube market doing these days?


http://images.apple.com/macmini/images/design_hero_20100615.jpg
http://netbooked.net/images/sized/images/uploads/articles/dell-zino-hd-now-02-600x370.jpg

firewood
Jun 13, 2011, 12:37 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Takeaways from the article:


If you want to make money, iOS is your platform of choice

iOS has highest potential for future growth (see above for one of the main reasons) even among an ocean of Android devices that are based on an "open" platform, but other platforms are growing as well. There will always be a market for other platforms, even if they're total junk. The race to the bottom is always happening.

iOS growth faster than Mac/OS X. Suggests (more evidence to add to the pile) that we are definitely in the Post-PC era.


Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD. iPad (and tablets in general) are just fancy toys which are meant for basic things. They can't do anything productive. And how the hell do you think a fancy toy can replace a real computer? Unless you're a 10 year kid playing casual games and trolling on forums, I don't see tablets replacing anything.

Most businesses use most of their PCs for really simple things (data entry, presentations, enterprise web apps, etc.) So they are buying tons of what you call "fancy toys" to replace boatloads of their PCs already. PCs are going the way that minicomputers and mainframes went, specialized use and museums.

kiljoy616
Jun 13, 2011, 12:37 PM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Small or not its not really a crap survey. That said how is this a bad thing. I can see why developer would put more time and money into iOS than say OS X.

The money is in what is hot. Also its much easier to program for iOS but someone with real programming experience can tell us if this is the case. My reference is from 2 friends who are programmers not my own experience.

Do we need that many types of Word Processors to pick from, I don't think so.

All is still well on OSX which in a few more years will probably not even be OS X any more but iOS X and you can quote me in 10 years. I also see the file management system we have today going away or been sent to the back side where only the old die hard care. Just as soon as all the old foggy die off.

seamuskrat
Jun 13, 2011, 12:44 PM
Other have said it, but an n=45 is rubbish.

I do not know how many devs attend WWDC, but lets say it is at least 1000. A survey of 45, and it doesnto say how these 45 were selected hardly justifies as the pulse of the group.

Over 10 years, a small random survey may allow for trending statistics. But this is a financial analyst basing stock purchase on wha seems to be a paltry informal survey.

no wonder analysts are wrong so often.

techwhiz
Jun 13, 2011, 12:45 PM
The sample size is too small to mean anything.
How many people attended? A lot more than 45 considering it was sold out.

The people that published this survey are ....... you fill in the blank.

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics.". -- Mark Twain

apolloa
Jun 13, 2011, 12:48 PM
Well, no surprise here then? Mac is bottom of the run for most developers, a lot of developers see mobile platforms as the future, so most of them develop for iOS the most developed platform, and they don't bother with OSX.

Hence the survey results....

Great news for iOS, but I kinda got used to the lack of devs on OSX, still considering how many Macs are getting sold these day's it's a little bit of a surprise.

beangibbs
Jun 13, 2011, 12:52 PM
Off-topic: even after all these years, Helvetica is still the best damn sans out there. In fact, it reads better than some of the well-designed serifs in use today.

This.
+1

Mr. Gates
Jun 13, 2011, 12:54 PM
LOL

You are probably right about Windows replacing Android in a few years. But I don't think it will be a strong competitor unless developers can make some money.

I think the Windows phone will be a little harder to pirate Apps on compared to Android

Popeye206
Jun 13, 2011, 12:57 PM
Android has a potential for growth. But no potential for real profit for developers. That will be the downfall of Android. I wonder what OS will take its place as a competitor for iOS in a few years?

I don't think Android will go away. I think they will wake up and realize that the only way to make it work will be to close in the "open system" walls like Apple has done. And they must do this for two reasons — one is so the developers can make money and the other is get a handle on the viruses and malware.

I know... the "open systems geeks" aren't going to like my statements, but the general public (the non-geeky person) likes things that just work and can be trusted. Apple does a great job at that.

If Google does not work on this, they will have a fragmented mess that is known to have many issues and customers who bought an Android device today will be looking at Apple in the future.

The good news... I'm sure they will and I think we'll continue to see Google and Apple at the top of the heap for a while. There is plenty of room for both... even more.

NightFox
Jun 13, 2011, 12:59 PM
Image (http://images.apple.com/macmini/images/design_hero_20100615.jpg)
Image (http://netbooked.net/images/sized/images/uploads/articles/dell-zino-hd-now-02-600x370.jpg)

Did you post this in the wrong thread?

beangibbs
Jun 13, 2011, 01:00 PM
Post PC era? lol'd

FFS stop posting this post-pc crap in EVERY SINGLE THREAD. iPad (and tablets in general) are just fancy toys which are meant for basic things. They can't do anything productive. And how the hell do you think a fancy toy can replace a real computer? Unless you're a 10 year kid playing casual games and trolling on forums, I don't see tablets replacing anything.

I'm 20, don't have the money to go buy a computer right now, and my iPad saved my butt in the spring semester because I had all my class notes in one location, with slides, pictures, videos and audio recordings of the lectures. I also produce artwork off this thing that is paying my bills. I'd say it's done a damn good job of replacing the POS laptop I had before. Will it completely replace computers? I don't think so, but it will definitely reduce our need to return to our desktops or laptops.

JoeDMD
Jun 13, 2011, 01:01 PM
Did you post this in the wrong thread?

nope he said the cube market failed.
But small form factor machines are still be being made and sold.

vincenz
Jun 13, 2011, 01:09 PM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

That plus they're running the survey at an apple conference. It's almost like they wanted to see who DIDN'T want to develop for apple.

ThisIsNotMe
Jun 13, 2011, 01:20 PM
How many more iOS devices are there compared to Mac OS computers?

One would need to know that before making a determination on the merits of this survey.

spydr
Jun 13, 2011, 01:30 PM
Enough said.

maflynn
Jun 13, 2011, 01:32 PM
Why are so many people getting their panties in a bind over this.
Developers are producing software to make money - nothing wrong with that. They adopt a platform like iOS or android because they see a potential for profits. why is this so shocking. :confused:

rmwebs
Jun 13, 2011, 01:38 PM
This shouldn't really be a shock to anyone....you'd be blind not to notice Apple's lack of care for Mac developers over the last few years. Even the Mac App Store - it only exists because Apple get a nice profit from sales.

The way its going devs will be all over Android, especially if Google manage to get this fragmentation stuff sorted out next year.

Down vote me all you like, facts are facts.

WestonHarvey1
Jun 13, 2011, 01:45 PM
This shouldn't really be a shock to anyone....you'd be blind not to notice Apple's lack of care for Mac developers over the last few years. Even the Mac App Store - it only exists because Apple get a nice profit from sales.

The way its going devs will be all over Android, especially if Google manage to get this fragmentation stuff sorted out next year.

Down vote me all you like, facts are facts.

Makes no sense. OS X keeps roaring along with new technologies and APIs and now even its own distribution channel, the Mac App Store. Not sure where you get the idea that Apple doesn't care for Mac developers.

NT1440
Jun 13, 2011, 01:52 PM
This shouldn't really be a shock to anyone....you'd be blind not to notice Apple's lack of care for Mac developers over the last few years. Even the Mac App Store - it only exists because Apple get a nice profit from sales.

The way its going devs will be all over Android, especially if Google manage to get this fragmentation stuff sorted out next year.

Down vote me all you like, facts are facts.

....

There are over 2000 new APIs in Lion.

rmwebs
Jun 13, 2011, 01:52 PM
Makes no sense. OS X keeps roaring along with new technologies and APIs and now even its own distribution channel, the Mac App Store. Not sure where you get the idea that Apple doesn't care for Mac developers.

A few of things:

- The Mac Pro...hasn't seen a decent update in YEARS..its mostly used for heavy development.

- Full focus on iOS with very little happening on the actual Mac front. Lion is simply bridging a few UI changes and adding iOS'esq features....nothing of real importance, with the exception of version control.

- XCode 4 was a step backwards. They spent so much time getting iOS stuff integrated that they neglected mac developers who rely on it. It's a very messy development tool now.

Consultant
Jun 13, 2011, 02:04 PM
The drop from 50% to 7% (even if the survey results were statistically significant) doesn't mean developers are 'shying away from Mac'. It's quite likely that a large percentage of developers attending WWDC now are relatively new to Xcode development, having been drawn in by the lure of the iOS cash cow. That's to be expected given the platform's success, and says nothing about the actual number of people developing for the Mac.



Edit: I just noticed your comment. That's essentially what I was trying to say too.

Perhaps great minds think alike. ;)

LLIBSETAG
Jun 13, 2011, 02:49 PM
5200 Apple Developers at 2011 WWDC in attendance. 45 surveyed. 0.0086% of Developers surveyed & yet you must post some widely interpolated projections that this is a REFLECTION of the direction that developers are going to write this news story for FORTUNE?

Get a more IN DEPTH survey results before writing an article FORTUNE. Lame.:(

ThisIsNotMe
Jun 13, 2011, 03:06 PM
If you look at Q1 2011 sales of iOS devices vs. OS X devices, OS X devices account for ~9% of those sales making the OS X market share pretty much in line with this survey.

mikedeissler
Jun 13, 2011, 03:23 PM
Is that 93% "untapped" or 93% ignored ?

marksman
Jun 13, 2011, 03:27 PM
Bad survey is bad.

*LTD*
Jun 13, 2011, 03:38 PM
This shouldn't really be a shock to anyone....you'd be blind not to notice Apple's lack of care for Mac developers over the last few years. Even the Mac App Store - it only exists because Apple get a nice profit from sales.

The way its going devs will be all over Android, especially if Google manage to get this fragmentation stuff sorted out next year.

Down vote me all you like, facts are facts.

Computers are computers. Macs are computers. In the Post-PC world they have less sex-appeal for the average consumer. THAT is the problem, not Apple's lack of attention. Frankly, I'm surprised Apple gives Macs there attention they do. It's a nice surprise. A lot of tech outfits aren't able to do both - or they do one and consistently fumble the other. Apple does great things in both areas.

Android has nothing to do with OS X development. Devs who don't like the way the Mac is going are free to develop for iOS. Where the money is - in the entire mobile industry.

Analog Kid
Jun 13, 2011, 03:58 PM
Ok, so in summary, Munster talked with a few people in his hotel bar and started drawing conclusions: First, developers at the Apple developer conference like developing for Apple. Second, mobile application developers also try to develop on multiple mobile platforms with Android barely edging out "none" for second most common. Third, developers spending time developing on Android think Android has potential. And finally, the biggest problem with the App Store is other.

Then he rolls this all into the conclusion that the Mac isn't generating interest.

Thanks, Gene, I appreciate you taking the time to phone this one in...

ten-oak-druid
Jun 13, 2011, 04:26 PM
The questions aren't complete. They asked developers of iOS if they develop for Mac OS. But they do not ask them if they develop for other computer OS's.

The results give an impression of bad news for OS X. But what about all computer OS vs. mobile OS?

twoodcc
Jun 13, 2011, 04:56 PM
it's hard to tell much from this survey. it needs more respondents

darkplanets
Jun 13, 2011, 05:45 PM
This is a mockery of statistics.

Sample size... wow. Talk about not controlling for bias. Also, how can you even compare the two years when half of the fields are n/a? You would need at least some context in order to get a realistic perspective on market and "mindshare" changes.

How did they gather these respondents... I'm pretty sure it wasn't a stratified random sample...

jmpnop
Jun 13, 2011, 09:36 PM
For PCs, in their current form, the direction is down. Unless they're taking cues from mobile tech. Mobile tech is the well from which everyone drinks. The mobile sphere is currently the main influence for nearly all consumer tech.

If you're a consumer tech company and you don't have a smartphone/app store/tablet strategy, you're doing it wrong. And if you deal in the enterprise side, you'd better get moving *now* before someone else does in a big way.

Computers are computers. Macs are computers. In the Post-PC world they have less sex-appeal for the average consumer. THAT is the problem, not Apple's lack of attention. Frankly, I'm surprised Apple gives Macs there attention they do. It's a nice surprise. A lot of tech outfits aren't able to do both - or they do one and consistently fumble the other. Apple does great things in both areas.

Android has nothing to do with OS X development. Devs who don't like the way the Mac is going are free to develop for iOS. Where the money is - in the entire mobile industry.

Yes, all the money is in mobile tech but it won't change the way people use PCs. Tablets cannot do intensive work. I'll give you an example - Ferrari makes great cars with sophisticated tech. Toyota launches a simple sedan and it sells millions. Toyota's success will not decide the future. People who buy Ferrari will still buy Ferrari. Its not like Ferrari will stop producing sports cars and start making sedans. Same can be told about PCs, PCs are used for a purpose. Unlike tablets which can do only simple things like browsing, e-mail, ebooks and light editing.

caspersoong
Jun 14, 2011, 12:52 AM
Yep. 45 out of 5200? Insane.

Rodimus Prime
Jun 14, 2011, 12:58 AM
Lets see the data collection method was garbage. This means that the data was garbage which means the results are Garbage.

Garbage in = Garbage out.

Fukui
Jun 14, 2011, 04:49 AM
Bad survey is bad.
++
Garbage in garbage out LOL.

RobertMartens
Jun 14, 2011, 07:23 AM
Lets see the data collection method was garbage. This means that the data was garbage which means the results are Garbage.

Garbage in = Garbage out.

Don't you know garbage collection doesn't work on iOS

winston1236
Jun 14, 2011, 08:41 AM
lies, i have a blackberry and i can promise you if 36% of the people making apps for iphone were also making them for BB the BB apps store wouldnt suck as much as it does. it probably has 300 apps and only 2 useful, and whats sad is im hardly exaggerating.

MacinDoc
Jun 14, 2011, 08:53 AM
The questions aren't complete. They asked developers of iOS if they develop for Mac OS. But they do not ask them if they develop for other computer OS's.

The results give an impression of bad news for OS X. But what about all computer OS vs. mobile OS?
Exactly. Now, if they had asked 1000 devs, and if they had also asked how many were developing for Windows, and if that percentage was more than 9 times the percentage developing for Mac OS, then it would be something Apple should worry about.

Bernard SG
Jun 14, 2011, 09:17 AM
Apple's Mac App Store is doing well, thanks.
Figures are not available but I believe the 10,000 apps milestone has been reached.
And also Why would Amazon bother doing it's own Mac AppStore if the Mac development were in dire straits.

starbird
Jun 14, 2011, 11:26 AM
This is a crap survey. Only 20 people in 2007 and 45 people this year? Thats a TINY sample size.. not even big enough to make these statistics significant.

Agreed. Not to mention, I doubt this is the same people, so "shying away" seems a bit extreme. In 2008, more Mac focused developers went (still in the honeymoon phase of Rosetta and Intel switch).

Now, the focus is mobile apps. The attendees just skew more mobile.

And GREAT GAME last night! Go B's!!!!

autrefois
Jun 14, 2011, 07:23 PM
Steve has made no such thing clear. Based on everything I've heard him say, I believe he imagines a world where the iPad becomes far more prevalent than PCs. Within the home, I think this makes some sense. The iPad is a great device for the sort of activities people typically use a PC for at home — casual web browsing, social interaction, and certainly games. It's portable, compact, affordable, and most of all fun. So where previously a family might have owned four PCs, that family might, in the future, own three iPads and one PC. Steve described this world by comparing PCs to trucks and tablets to cars — there are a lot more cars on the road, but trucks still have their place.

So, 'Post PC' is a term given to an era where touchscreen devices like the iPad start to dominate. It doesn't imply the death of the PC.

Does Steve really believe in such a world? Probably. But in a way he's also using it (as a marketing term) to try and create that future sooner rather than later — because Apple has the early lead when it comes to tablets, and it's a lead they dearly want to cement as quickly as possible. If they can get people to believe the iPad is the future, then some of those people might just hold off on buying that next PC in favour of an iPad, and I think Steve's confident enough that they'll be sold by the experience of owning one.

I predict (and you can quote me in ten years) that the Mac still has a long and healthy life ahead of it. Just don't expect Apple to pour the same amount of advertising into it as it does for iOS devices.

Very well-thought out and well-put; I just hope I'm wrong and you're right.

Once Lion comes out, I'll put this thread in my Reading List and, assuming the feature still exists, pull it up in 10 years to see how close the prediction was. :cool:

kalsta
Jun 14, 2011, 10:30 PM
Very well-thought out and well-put; I just hope I'm wrong and you're right.

Once Lion comes out, I'll put this thread in my Reading List and, assuming the feature still exists, pull it up in 10 years to see how close the prediction was. :cool:

Ha ha… No worries. See you in 10 years! :)

Bernard SG
Jun 14, 2011, 11:24 PM
I can see the iPad evolving into a dual device in the future, when hardware technology allows fitting OS X-capable CPU, GPU and RAM inside the from factor.
You could have a docking-station including an OS X (or whatever version of the OS we'll be in) bootable drive, so the iPad can work as a Mac when docked and switch back to iOS when removed. Or maybe large capacity SSD's will be common enough to not even require the docking-station.
The real question seems to be whether it's a good idea or not to marry touch-screen with 'traditional' human interfaces (keyboard, mouse, trackpad...). At this point, Apple is unwilling to go that way, hence the clear separation between iOS and OS X/Mac.