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MacRumors
Jun 20, 2011, 03:07 PM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/20/successor-to-steve-uncertainty-hurting-aapl-share-price/)


http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2011/06/aaplchart1-500x228.png


The main downward force on Apple's stock price is a lack of clarity around Steve Jobs' successor and questions about how long he will remain at his current post, according to a pair of articles today examining the performance of Apple's stock over the past few months. AAPL is down more than 2% year-to-date, and is down more than 8% since WWDC began.

Henry Blodget at Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-apples-stock-is-dropping-2011-6):In a way, the situation Apple finds itself in is akin to an impending CEO retirement--without a successor having been named. In such "lame duck" periods, companies can become paralyzed, as managers focus more on their own future and political stature and uncertainty and less on the business.

And, in Apple's case, unfortunately, the situation is even worse: No one knows whether Steve will return, or when, or even when the question of his return will finally be put to rest. So the company is in a sort of perpetual purgatory.Rougemont, a contributor at investor haven Seeking Alpha, agrees (http://seekingalpha.com/article/275707-3-big-issues-driving-apple-stock-lower), noting "this concern is already discounted in the stock."

There may be another, less Steve-related explanation. Last week, there was some extraordinary downward movement (http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1308600296924&chddm=1955&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0) on Thursday, on a day without significant bad news. Philip Elmer-Dewitt at Apple 2.0 took a look at weekly options (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/16/who-knifed-aapl/) set to expire on Friday as a possible explanation for the sudden plunge.
Among the dwindling numbers of retail Apple investors, there were the usual cries of market manipulation and calls for reform of the weekly options markets, which some believe have become the tail that wags the underlying stock.Regardless of the reason behind the drop, some view the price dip as a buying opportunity.

Both Horace Dediu at Asymco (http://www.asymco.com/2011/06/20/thinking-over-apples-value/) and Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross believe this drop is a buying opportunity (http://seekingalpha.com/article/275533-bullish-cross-initiates-fourth-ever-buy-rating-on-apple), with Zaky assigning a "buy" recommendation for any price between $300 and $320, with a $500 price target:Because of the market's short-term blindness to this obvious reality, we find it prudent to put a strong-buy rating on the stock if it so happens to trade under $300 during a potential brutal summer correction.Apple just closed at $315 (http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL), down a point and a half on the day.

Article Link: Successor to Steve Uncertainty Hurting AAPL Share Price? (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/06/20/successor-to-steve-uncertainty-hurting-aapl-share-price/)



shadowbird423
Jun 20, 2011, 03:12 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Buy is all I can say. Buy.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:14 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Buy is all I can say. Buy.

Not very good financial advice. Anyone that gambles on uncertainty is heading towards failure.

Mackan
Jun 20, 2011, 03:14 PM
Sell! Sell! Before it's too late!

ratzzo
Jun 20, 2011, 03:14 PM
I had actually noticed AAPL stock going down a little bit over these days. While no one can tell it's precisely because of Steve Job's health, it's pretty likely that when he decides to resign in favor of someone else, stock will plunge.

Apple's main challenge is how said successor will lead the company, Steve's shadow is a big one to overcome.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:15 PM
This is in part due to the overall market. See these dips as time to buy, instead of being concerned.

I think another part of the problem is having to deal with the legal costs to stop Samsung from such blatant copying of Apple products.

As for Steve's successor, once people realize Apple is not going to hire a Steve Ballmer type, they wil realize the company is not going to fail when Jobs retires.

Rodimus Prime
Jun 20, 2011, 03:16 PM
I have said to before. SJ needs to step down and put someone else in.
he can still and should have an active role but not as the CEO.
Take the hit now to stock prices while they are good and not take an even larger hit when he dies. Things are good and him still being active in the company would protect it.

SJ is good at marketing but I honestly do not see him good for CEO stuff. I would not be surprised if a good part of the day to day stuff was already off load to Tim. Just give Tim full control to really steer the ship and repair the many many bridges Jobs has burned.

-=XX=-Nephilim
Jun 20, 2011, 03:17 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

bbeagle
Jun 20, 2011, 03:17 PM
Not very good financial advice. Anyone that gambles on uncertainty is heading towards failure.

Gambling on uncertainty is also the way to quick riches.

toddybody
Jun 20, 2011, 03:18 PM
Hmmm...my prediction for Steve's replacement will be...an intelligent, capable, person in their 40's...no, make that 50's. Yes, this will be the chosen one.

Seriously, Steve Jobs is wonderful and his replacement will undoubtedly be a stellar choice. Apple's gonna be fine.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:18 PM
This is in part due to the overall market. See these dips as time to buy, instead of being concerned.

Has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with the fact that Apple is completely changing the course of the ship without anyone knowing who is going to be captaining the ship. Apples move may be great but it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it. Uncertainty and Apple secrecy are no longer going to be a driving force in keeping Apples stock high. I think a lot of investors are feeling burned by the fact that they have no idea what their investments are really going to. Apple will recover of course but for someone to be blindly putting their money into an investment such as Apple, its high risk, high reward.


Gambling on uncertainty is also the way to quick riches.

Famous last words of every single person whos been bit by a Ponzi or a bad stock investment. If getting rich quick was a valid option, everyone would be rich. Its better to gamble your livelihood on something that is going to mature in time and give you better tax options.

wordoflife
Jun 20, 2011, 03:18 PM
Should've cashed in when it was at $330! Damn! :D

silusesMac
Jun 20, 2011, 03:20 PM
Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:20 PM
Should've cashed in when it was at $330! Damn! :D

Love your sig btw!

In relation to your answer though, better get ready to pay hefty taxes. When I cashed portions of my Apple stocks I owed close to 35k in taxes.


Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim

I don't think Woz really is interested in what Steve has turned Apple into. Its goes totally against who Woz is really. I think the most likely replacement for Steve will come outside of the company.

spiderman0616
Jun 20, 2011, 03:21 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

Almost none of what you just said is true except for that Steve is on his way out. All CEOs have to leave at some point, whether they die or retire. And no, Apple will not have Steve Jobs anymore at some point. But neither will any other company. When he goes, the whole industry loses him, not just Apple. And Apple will most likely get a very good replacement---they are too smart not to.

ravenvii
Jun 20, 2011, 03:22 PM
Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim

Woz? Not a chance in hell.

Tim Cook, quite likely.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:23 PM
Almost none of what you just said is true except for that Steve is on his way out. All CEOs have to leave at some point, whether they die or retire. And no, Apple will not have Steve Jobs anymore at some point. But neither will any other company. When he goes, the whole industry loses him, not just Apple. And Apple will most likely get a very good replacement---they are too smart not to.

You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

appleguy123
Jun 20, 2011, 03:23 PM
The entire market has been down since around wwdc. It's not just Apple, and it's likely more related to the global economic slump than to uncertainty over Steve.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:24 PM
The best first investment is savings. Get a savings account and put money away each month. Once you get a few thousand you will be protective of it. But you need a separate account from the one you use to pay bills. That one will never grow. It will run a steady average. You need one that only gets deposits and no withdrawals.

People say to be aggressive but the truth is you want some cash built up to make a good investment when the time is right. When the economy dips you want money to buy stock cheap to make money when the rebound comes. You are in that case actually playing the dollar rather than the stock.

And the experts tell you what will be good for them, not you. Take the talk of gold. Right now is not the time to buy gold. The price is high. They get your cheap dollar now and spend it later when the value is returned. The time to buy gold is when it is cheap.

lozpop
Jun 20, 2011, 03:24 PM
Scott Forstall is going to replace him!

thelonelylimo
Jun 20, 2011, 03:24 PM
I had actually noticed AAPL stock going down a little bit over these days. While no one can tell it's precisely because of Steve Job's health, it's pretty likely that when he decides to resign in favor of someone else, stock will plunge.

Apple's main challenge is how said successor will lead the company, Steve's shadow is a big one to overcome.

Woz!

ouimetnick
Jun 20, 2011, 03:25 PM
All I can say is for a guy on medical leave, it must not be for much if he can be rehearsing and giving all these keynotes. With that said, he still looks frail and unhealthy when I see him on stage. Very gaunt looking. :(

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:25 PM
Has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with the fact that Apple is completely changing the course of the ship without anyone knowing who is going to be captaining the ship. Apples move may be great but it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it. Uncertainty and Apple secrecy are no longer going to be a driving force in keeping Apples stock high. I think a lot of investors are feeling burned by the fact that they have no idea what their investments are really going to. Apple will recover of course but for someone to be blindly putting their money into an investment such as Apple, its high risk, high reward.



Wrong. I've watched Apple go up and down and most of the stocks are going with along in the same direction. It is in part the market. Not completely about the market but to say the market has nothing to do with the fluctuations is wrong. I watch my investments.

SandynJosh
Jun 20, 2011, 03:25 PM
Steve will never leave Apple. His plasticised corpse will confront each departing employee with the challenging pre-recorded demand, "Have you worked your ass off for Apple today?

Only the "truth" as determined by the iCloud AI will open the exit door. Only the "truth" will get you free.

To the Nervous Nellies that think the Apple CEO position holds the same economic sway as with other companies, have no idea of the unique structural differences at Apple. Jobs has been cloned rather well and upper management are all like Star Wars Storm Troopers.

spiderman0616
Jun 20, 2011, 03:26 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

I doubt you are going to find any investors out there who think iPad is on its way down.

BaldiMac
Jun 20, 2011, 03:28 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

You mean other than making billions of dollars in cash and showing spectacular growth? :rolleyes:

roland.g
Jun 20, 2011, 03:28 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

All this coming from someone with a sig exclaiming 'Flash Forever' and boycotting iOS devices. Sorry if I choose to disregard the points made by a person who believes in a defunct, arcane, obsolete and otherwise system resource hog such as Flash. You must also believe that adding human waste to your gas tank will make it run better too. Added to which you are boycotting iOS devices, presumably because of their lack of Flash. Hmm. The single most successful line of products. And their success in part because Apple refused to taint the user's experience with the crippling effect of Flash capability.

Geodextro
Jun 20, 2011, 03:29 PM
Yeah apples stock is down but look at google and microsoft - they are down too - if you look at the last 6 months apple is down the least out of the three of them. Yeah if you want to only look at the last week sure apple is down more than microsoft but not more than google - this drop has NOTHING to do with steve jobs and everything to do with the US economy being what it is. Not enough jobs are entering the market and investors are getting glum - things arent springing back as fast as everything thought to people are starting to be a little more conservative with their money (as in saving money not the right-wingers).

rhett7660
Jun 20, 2011, 03:29 PM
The entire market has been down since around wwdc. It's not just Apple, and it's likely more related to the global economic slump than to uncertainty over Steve.

Easy, this would make way to much sense. :rolleyes:

Got to love the reactions one sees and reads on this board when something like this is presented.

I have a feeling we will see someone sooner then later to replace Steve J.

max pl
Jun 20, 2011, 03:29 PM
hey macrumors,

try looking at the overall market conditions instead of just focusing on your aapl shares. that's the real reason why apple's shares are down.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:29 PM
Wrong. I've watched Apple go up and down and most of the stocks are going with along in the same direction. It is in part the market. Not completely about the market but to say the market has nothing to do with the fluctuations is wrong. I watch my investments.

My investments right now have been pretty stable actually. My 401K has been pretty solid and my ROTH is kicking @ss right now. You're right the market is all over the place but that doesn't hide the fact that investors want to know what they are investing in other than the iPad and iPhone. With the influx of new Android devices new investors are looking for the next big thing. The iPad is already a big thing but whats next?


You mean other than making billions of dollars in cash and showing spectacular growth? :rolleyes:

You mean the cash Apple can't use because of the tax loop holes they are lobbying for in order to get it?

Think what you want those that invested money wisely are doing fine. I happen to be one of them. I don't believe in getting rich quick. Id rather diversify my portfolio than waste 300 dollars a share on Apple. That 300 dollars would serve me better in my CD or my IRA.

shompa
Jun 20, 2011, 03:31 PM
Apple need to do a 10-1 split on their shares. This would drive the price up.

Google is hurting Apple. Google has a fanatical following. Just look at Chrome. It has already 20% market share. Safari never came over 6% share. This is with the same rendering engine. Still: people love Chrome and hate Safari.

Same thing with Android. I have met hundreds of Android users. They are fanatical about how they are best and how Apple is copies them. They have newer used an Iphone and will never buy Apple. There is no rime or reason, just great back stabbing marketing by Google.

Android is open. Apple is closed.
Closed is evil. Use Google its good.

Apple shares are under valued.
Apple has a P/E about 15.5. The problem is that people forget that Apple has 70 billion in cash. With the cash P/E is about 9.
If Apple continues to grow, like now, the P/E is about 6 in September.

Compare this with:
Google: PE16
ARM: PE 100
Amazon: PE 82

Amazon is valued almost 10 times higher then Apple.
Something is wrong.

We have loads of tech companies today with crazy P/E, just like before the .com bubble bursted. But a company that does 26+ billion in profit goes down in value?

ratzzo
Jun 20, 2011, 03:32 PM
There hasn't been any news about Steve's health getting worse, so pointing at this subject to justify a slight decrease on the AAPL stock share (when many other important names, not just Apple's, have also gone down) I think is an erroneous assumption.

BaldiMac
Jun 20, 2011, 03:35 PM
You mean the cash Apple can't use because of the tax loop holes they are lobbying for in order to get it?

No, I was referring to all of it. Not sure why you would bring up this topic other than to throw mud.

Think what you want those that invested money wisely are doing fine. I happen to be one of them. I don't believe in getting rich quick. Id rather diversify my portfolio than waste 300 dollars a share on Apple. That 300 dollars would serve me better in my CD or my IRA.

And what does this anecdote have to do with Apple's appeal to long term investors?

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:36 PM
You're right the market is all over the place but that doesn't hide the fact that investors want to know what they are investing in other than the iPad and iPhone. With the influx of new Android devices new investors are looking for the next big thing. The iPad is already a big thing but whats next?

Of course we want to know what's next. But we were talking about the market and if it has anything to do with the fluctuation in Apple's stock, and of course it does.

haydn!
Jun 20, 2011, 03:38 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

Yes, it looks interesting. But it's also years away from coming to market. It will also no doubt be a shiny new coat on the same bloated Windows platform. When Microsoft, stop, rewrite Window's from scratch. Then, I'll sit up and listen.


2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

Plenty of competitors. But none are coming even close to market share. The iPad is the driving force behind the tablet market.


3. iPhone - see above...

Android maybe a bigger OS eco-system, but the iPhone is still the single most popular handset on the planet.


4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

Aren't Mac sales up something like 25% compared to last year? With the Mac outgrowing all other PC sales?


5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...


This is the only accurate part of your entire post. Though, I doubt we'll see him go fully for quite some time.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:39 PM
No, I was referring to all of it. Not sure why you would bring up this topic other than to throw mud.

It was too much fun for him to resist of course. He also just tried to say the market had nothing to do with the fluctuations in AAPL but at least he now admits it does. Some people just feel the need to spin everything against Apple. I don't get it.

flottenheimer
Jun 20, 2011, 03:39 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

1. Please try to switch. You'll soon realize that all the fancy new Win8 stuff is nothing more than a nice frontend bolted on top of "good ol' Windows". Think auto-starting Front Row when booting up your Mac.

2. Come on. Exactly what tablet is flooring the iPad 2? Everyone but you agrees that the tablet revolution has just started. This is the beginning. Not the end.

3. Come on. Again. iPhone is still at the very top of the smartphone game. Users love their iPhones. We'll have iPhone5 (or 4S) in a few months. And iOS 5 looks damn fine (what's the Android feature that you find is killing iOS?).

4. Macs sell by the truckload. Each quarter is another record breaking quarter. And about that price: You really do get what you pay for.

5. I can't deny that. Nor confirm it. He doesn't look too good these days. But I for one still hopes he'll recover. He more than deserves that.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:40 PM
Of course we want to know what's next. But we were talking about the market and if it has anything to do with the fluctuation in Apple's stock, and of course it does.

So you're telling me that investing in a company without knowing any future plans and prices that are astronomical per share is a worthy investment? If you had 5 grand right now would you invest it all in Apple or put it into a ROTH IRA that would make you more money than that Apple stock would? The market is crappy because people make stupid decisions investing and the comments of users on this forum about how happy they are with their 10 shares of Apple is proof that people have no clue what they are doing with their money.


It was too much fun for him to resist of course. He also just tried to say the market had nothing to do with the fluctuations in AAPL but at least he now admits it does. Some people just feel the need to spin everything against Apple. I don't get it.

My entire retirement is waiting for me in Apple Stock. To me it doesn't matter I have close to 500 shares of it purchased at 25 a share. To me the more the price goes up the better.

bpaluzzi
Jun 20, 2011, 03:41 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

Wow. Uh, okay dude.

acslater017
Jun 20, 2011, 03:41 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

1) I think most people in the tech industry are not as juiced about Windows 8 as you are. Most responses I've seen (not just on Mac forums) have described it something along the lines of "Windows 7 with a WP7 dashboard". That might change closer to launch, but as of now the reception is quite tepid. Not to mention that there there is a dearth of hardware that can do the mouse+touch dance, and you are comparing something shipping in July 2011 to something shipping who-knows-when.

2) While it's arguable whether or not iPad will continue its success, I don't now anyone who can back up the argument that iPad competitors are about to take over. There are a huge number of tablets, sure. Maybe each model has sold 1,000 for a grand total of 10% of what the iPad has sold.

3) Android phones are waaay more successful than Android tablets. But even then, iOS and Android are roughly neck-and-neck. Comparing hardware to hardware, no model(s) match the iPhone line. The iPhone also ranks higher in customer satisfaction, usage, app attachment, etc. Comparing platform to platform, iOS (including iPad and Touch) is still more popular than Android. That, and they have been dealing with some quality control issues with their Market. So I give Android credit for flooding the smartphone market with numbers. But it's still quite competitive.

4) I might have believed that 2 or 3 years ago. But Macs are increasing sales despite an overall PC industry decline and bad economy. I think that theory has been disproven.

5) That's one area where I might agree with you. I think he'll stick around for quite awhile though. But the uncertainty does loom over things.

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 03:42 PM
Almost none of what you just said is true except for that Steve is on his way out. All CEOs have to leave at some point, whether they die or retire. And no, Apple will not have Steve Jobs anymore at some point. But neither will any other company. When he goes, the whole industry loses him, not just Apple. And Apple will most likely get a very good replacement---they are too smart not to.

I'm pretty sure he was only joking. There's really no other explanation. Unless he hasn't been reading the news for the last couple of years and likes being wrong all the time.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:43 PM
Wow. Uh, okay dude.

Keep investing your money in AAPL then. At this point unless you can buy 100+ shares at a time you are wasting your time and money.

chadley_chad
Jun 20, 2011, 03:43 PM
Wow, if you think anyone believes the crock of **** you just wrote then more fool you! Point 1 I don't believe you, points 2 - 4 absolute nonsense and a typical Apple Hater comment.

Point 5 was the only one you got right; hardly a surprise though!

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 03:44 PM
So you're telling me that investing in a company without knowing any future plans and prices that are astronomical per share is a worthy investment? If you had 5 grand right now would you invest it all in Apple or put it into a ROTH IRA that would make you more money than that Apple stock would? The market is crappy because people make stupid decisions investing and the comments of users on this forum about how happy they are with their 10 shares of Apple is proof that people have no clue what they are doing with their money.

No I said it was partly to do with the overall market. You said it had nothing to do with the overall market. That is all. You were wrong on that point. Now you are trying to say I implied I'm not concerned about future direction.

No the point was that you said the market fluctuations had nothing to do with AAPL's fluctuations and that is just wrong. As I said I watch my investments.

My instinct is telling me that we are going to expect a second overall dip in the economy. We had one a few years back and I think it will be a double dip. I'm putting cash away for that time to buy stock when it is all cheap. Well once I know it is going back up anyway.

Anyway many of the hedge funds are buying into AAPL for the long run. They are the ones that fix the market anyway. The entire stock market is a scam anyway.

sockdoggy
Jun 20, 2011, 03:45 PM
I agree with those stating that the overall market performance has a lot to do with the share performance. It's ugly out there.

But wouldn't Tim Cook be the permanent CEO after Steve Jobs? What are the reasons why he wouldn't be?

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:45 PM
No I said it was partly to do with the overall market. You said it had nothing to do with the overall market. That is all. You were wrong on that point. Now you are trying to say I implied I'm not concerned about future direction.

No the point was that you said the market fluctuations had nothing to do with AAPL's fluctuations and that is just wrong. As I said I watch my investments.

Thats so funny because all I ever see from most of you is how Apple stock is always fluctuating and its no big deal, now its the markets fault?

Consultant
Jun 20, 2011, 03:46 PM
Apple announces new product: iResurrect.

Stock market goes wild.

chadley_chad
Jun 20, 2011, 03:46 PM
If anyone saw the video of Steve presenting to the Curpetino Council, they would have seen for themselves his days are numbered!

Being blunt, Steve's illness is one that WILL ultimately kill him; and as per my comment, he didn't exactly look in the best of health!

Buy stock when Steve goes as the price plummets; and cross your fingers a year later Apple continue to re-invent! IMO, only way to secure the stock price is put Jonathan Ives in charge!

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:47 PM
Apple announces new product: iResurrect.

Stock market goes wild.

Ok... so again... the market has nothing to with Apples stock?\


If anyone saw the video of Steve presenting to the Curpetino Council, they would have seen for themselves his days are numbered!

Being blunt, Steve's illness is one that WILL ultimately kill him; and as per my comment, he didn't exactly look in the best of health!

Buy stock when Steve goes as the price plummets; and cross your fingers a year later Apple continue to re-invent! IMO, only way to secure the stock price is put Jonathan Ives in charge!


Thats terrible financial advice! The whole idea of investing is investing in something that has a sure fire return. Again, I am not knocking Apple, I am knocking the fact that people think its a good idea to just buy buy buy a 300 dollar stock based on the fact that you like the products. That money could be invested in much better things that will make you a lot more money over time.

baryon
Jun 20, 2011, 03:47 PM
Apple is one of the world's most valuable companies. Don't worry.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 03:49 PM
This is a prime example of microeconomics vs macroeconomics.

Apple, like any company is also affected by the market as a whole and news around the world. The lack of uncertainty of a successor to Steve Jobs and/or the lack of uncertainty to whether or not he will return to Apple full time is a small part of the bigger picture.

Consultant
Jun 20, 2011, 03:49 PM
Android maybe a bigger OS eco-system, but the iPhone is still the single most popular handset on the planet.

Actually, Android is smaller than iOS (iPhone + iPod touch + iPad). In addition, very few people buy Android software. There is basically no money in it except for Google.

Consultant
Jun 20, 2011, 03:51 PM
Ok... so again... the market has nothing to with Apples stock?\


Appearantly I forgot to add simley AND your humor detector is broken.

haydn!
Jun 20, 2011, 03:51 PM
Actually, Android is smaller than iOS (iPhone + iPod touch + iPad). In addition, very few people buy Android software. There is basically no money in it except for Google.

Thanks for the insight! :) I thought they'd topped iOS.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:51 PM
Appearantly I forgot to add simley AND your humor detector is broken.

Sorry I didn't know text had a sense of humor.

dashiel
Jun 20, 2011, 03:53 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

Actually I think you’re the one looking at it as a consumer. Apple’s P/E ratio is 15.03 the last time it was that low was at the depths of the 2009 market crash. At that time the iPad was a huge gamble. Cut to 2011 and the iPad is increasingly looking like it will follow the iPod’s dominance in market share/profit rather than the iPhones dominance in profits alone. The growth for the iPad is massive, the growth of the iPhone is still quite large and if you were paying attention the introduction of iCloud is far more significant than photos and music. If Apple doesn’t blow it iCloud will be as important as the iPad.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 03:54 PM
Actually I think you’re the one looking at it as a consumer. Apple’s P/E ratio is 15.03 the last time it was that low was at the depths of the 2009 market crash. At that time the iPad was a huge gamble. Cut to 2011 and the iPad is increasingly looking like it will follow the iPod’s dominance in market share/profit rather than the iPhones dominance in profits alone. The growth for the iPad is massive, the growth of the iPhone is still quite large and if you were paying attention the introduction of iCloud is far more significant than photos and music. If Apple doesn’t blow it iCloud will be as important as the iPad.

So you are telling me that investing in Apple right now as a normal person who has maybe 2-3 grand the invest is a wise decision vs. something like a ROTH?

sockdoggy
Jun 20, 2011, 03:55 PM
I've seen a couple negative comments regarding Lion. I think what Apple is doing with Lion is absolutely brilliant.

They are implementing many iOS GUI elements, allowing those couple hundred million iOS users to easily use a Mac. I find a lot of people are hesitant to switch over because of the perceived differences in operating systems.

There is still a lot of potential to grow for this already huge company.

JPR
Jun 20, 2011, 03:56 PM
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Go to any mall with an apple store. It's always the busiest store in the mall. Its like they're giving the stuff away. It's a lousy economy. Yet throngs of people are making big purchases at these apple retail stores from what I can see.

mccldwll
Jun 20, 2011, 03:57 PM
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Spoken by someone who clearly doesn't know WTH he's talking about. From any investment analysis perspective aapl is a screaming bargain.

liavman
Jun 20, 2011, 03:59 PM
Apple just closed at $315, down a point and a half on the day.

Just so that there is no confusion, it was down 1.5% ($4.94)

wikus
Jun 20, 2011, 04:00 PM
once steve jobs is out of the picture, im gonna go nuts on apple stock.

basesloaded190
Jun 20, 2011, 04:00 PM
So you are telling me that investing in Apple right now as a normal person who has maybe 2-3 grand the invest is a wise decision vs. something like a ROTH?

That's two completely different types of investments. How can you compare those two?

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:00 PM
So you are telling me that investing in Apple right now as a normal person who has maybe 2-3 grand the invest is a wise decision vs. something like a ROTH?


All I've seen you post about are 401ks and Roths, that's almost like putting your money in a standard bank savings account earning .01%. Do you hold shares of stock in any company or do any trading or are you too scared to take those sorts of risks?

BaldiMac
Jun 20, 2011, 04:01 PM
So you are telling me that investing in Apple right now as a normal person who has maybe 2-3 grand the invest is a wise decision vs. something like a ROTH?

Of course not. A ROTH has tax advantages. But investing in Apple vs investing in an IRA are not exclusive. It's pretty likely the a considerable number of the funds that you can invest in through your IRA have Apple shares.

subsonix
Jun 20, 2011, 04:02 PM
This is nonsense, considering the vast amount of factors that affect stock prices it's impossible to derive one single factor as a cause with any certainty.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:03 PM
That's two completely different types of investments. How can you compare those two?


Clearly, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I bet you that he thinks putting money in a standard bank savings account that earns .01% is an investment.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 04:09 PM
Apple announces new product: iResurrect.

Stock market goes wild.

The "post-Jobs" era will start many years before the "post-PC" era.

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 04:11 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

iPad + iOS. They don't even need anything else.

mccldwll
Jun 20, 2011, 04:12 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Of course we want to know what's next. But we were talking about the market and if it has anything to do with the fluctuation in Apple's stock, and of course it does.

So you're telling me that investing in a company without knowing any future plans and prices that are astronomical per share is a worthy investment? If you had 5 grand right now would you invest it all in Apple or put it into a ROTH IRA that would make you more money than that Apple stock would? The market is crappy because people make stupid decisions investing and the comments of users on this forum about how happy they are with their 10 shares of Apple is proof that people have no clue what they are doing with their money.


It was too much fun for him to resist of course. He also just tried to say the market had nothing to do with the fluctuations in AAPL but at least he now admits it does. Some people just feel the need to spin everything against Apple. I don't get it.

My entire retirement is waiting for me in Apple Stock. To me it doesn't matter I have close to 500 shares of it purchased at 25 a share. To me the more the price goes up the better.

Aapl high priced? Give me a break. It's dirt cheap, as any true investor knows Speaking of dumb statements. You state that one needs to choose between investing in a ROTH or aapl. No choice is necessary.

shaynes
Jun 20, 2011, 04:12 PM
So you're telling me that investing in a company without knowing any future plans and prices that are astronomical per share is a worthy investment? If you had 5 grand right now would you invest it all in Apple or put it into a ROTH IRA that would make you more money than that Apple stock would? The market is crappy because people make stupid decisions investing and the comments of users on this forum about how happy they are with their 10 shares of Apple is proof that people have no clue what they are doing with their money.




My entire retirement is waiting for me in Apple Stock. To me it doesn't matter I have close to 500 shares of it purchased at 25 a share. To me the more the price goes up the better.

You realize that money in an IRA needs to be invested somewhere in order to make money, right? It is not an investment in itself. You don't seem to have much credibility for saying people have no clue.

If someone gave me 5 grand I might very well put 4 of it into a Roth IRA and invest it in AAPL. Then I'd buy a MBA.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:13 PM
The "post-Jobs" era will start many years before the "post-PC" era.


Crickets.....

ladeer
Jun 20, 2011, 04:14 PM
don't read too much into it. the entire stock market has been going down in the past two weeks.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:16 PM
You realize that money in an IRA needs to be invested somewhere in order to make money, right? It is not an investment in itself. You don't seem to have much credibility for saying people have no clue.

If someone gave me 5 grand I might very well put 4 of it into a Roth IRA and invest it in AAPL. Then I'd buy a MBA.


So you would be purchasing three shares of AAPL at the current market price and using what, credit to purchase the MBA?

sockdoggy
Jun 20, 2011, 04:16 PM
A couple other things from a business standpoint that I respect about Apple...

Focus on money making/growth products
The iPhone/iPad have been Apple's biggest priority over the last couple of years while the Mac has been pushed down the list.

Stick with what they know
They are one of the few tech companies that haven't gone way out of their sandbox in the last couple years. When they got into the phone business they succeeded because they know operating systems and know hardware. Think Blackberry Playbook or many of Microsoft's failed ventures.

Understanding the consumer
They offer the consumer very simple choices. Fast, Faster, Fastest. iPhone- 2 sizes. What is my grandma supposed to order on Dell's website?

Profit margins
They know they have value and they don't under price themselves. They also keep a very tight market out there as far as selling prices go.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:17 PM
don't read too much into it. the entire stock market has been going down in the past two weeks.


Two weeks? More like seven.

Mattie Num Nums
Jun 20, 2011, 04:17 PM
If someone gave me 5 grand I might very well put 4 of it into a Roth IRA and invest it in AAPL. Then I'd buy a MBA.

Point proven.

shaynes
Jun 20, 2011, 04:18 PM
So you would be purchasing three shares of AAPL at the current market price and using what, credit to purchase the MBA?

I don't even know which simple arithmetic mistake to correct here.

Tunster
Jun 20, 2011, 04:18 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!
That's a very pessimistic way of looking at things! Also, I'm sure there's a little bias from your own personal opinion about the products themselves. Let me put another view on this...

1. Lion - iMac/MacBook sales are still on the increase and have taken a good chunk out of Microsoft's "lion" share of the PC market. Especially when they're up 15% in April/May in a falling PC market. Pretty impressive. Lion I'm sure will get iPad users to buy into an iMac/MacBook if they haven't got one.

2. iPad - Woah? What planet are you on? It's still selling strong against it's competitors as a singular product. You'd expect to see a slow down after the initial release. I'm sure the iPad will be king for a long time to come.

3. iPhone - In a tougher market and where money is valued less, cheaper smartphones will be more appealing. Again, as a singular product; Apple is keeping it's momentum with 113% increase Q-to-Q and I'm sure the iPhone 5 will boost Apple's reputation again.

4. Mac's - A worse economic situation? Wasn't that 3 years ago? Things are slowly getting better and people are starting to see how much value for money you get with a Mac. All down to the help of iPads and iPhones on the market.

5. I would agree Steve Jobs stepping down would be a big hit on stability, but I'm sure he won't go until the next release of the iPhone and leave on a high to make sure a dent in Apple's stocks is very minimal.

Here in the UK, all the Apple shops are crammed with kids and people wanting to buy their products all the time. I'm sure we'll see Apple's reputation to be at the top for a long time into the 21st Century. It's nice to see they've turned their old stigma of being an expensive/media savvy product company to one you can trust in everyday computing.

Oh, and I almost forgot. Who else will be bringing a free, sophisticated cloud related product that streamlines well with all their products in the range? Only Apple. Wonder how long it'll take for Google to copy and say we can allow you to setup your cheaper tablet without a computer (for a cost) too? :D

mytdave
Jun 20, 2011, 04:18 PM
The price is down because Wallstreet is clueless about real life. These are the same people who have nearly bankrupted the nation...

There is no problem with the uncertainty surrounding Steve Jobs. Do you really think for one minute they don't have someone ready to take Steve's place? They are just not telling anyone who that person is. And that is a prudent move, because clearly, Wallstreet, and the press, would cause all kinds of havoc with that information.

If there is any real-world motivation for a stock price decline, it's the foolish approach Apple has taken to Lion distribution. The App Store-only download for Lion is not conducive for businesses. It has the potential to wreck commercial sales of Macs. That is the only real danger Apple is facing right now.

shaynes
Jun 20, 2011, 04:19 PM
Point proven.

What was your point? That you don't understand investing?

jntdigital
Jun 20, 2011, 04:19 PM
I honestly think Apple has already begun its transition, just not made it official. We are seeing Steve in his new role now. He will be around doing the keynote presentations collaborating on product development until he physically unable to. But If they can maintain momentum under Tim Cook I think he is the new CEO.

Question is, what if Johnny Ive leaves too?

BlindMellon
Jun 20, 2011, 04:20 PM
There hasn't been any news about Steve's health getting worse, so pointing at this subject to justify a slight decrease on the AAPL stock share (when many other important names, not just Apple's, have also gone down) I think is an erroneous assumption.

The only "news" anyone needs is to see how sickly and frail he looked at the WWDC (and that city council meeting). Had no energy and didn't do much presenting at all (like he did last year - and he looked sick last year, but nothing like now). Unless he has a miraculous recovery, he looks like he's got about 3 months.

doctor-don
Jun 20, 2011, 04:20 PM
Has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with the fact that Apple is completely changing the course of the ship without anyone knowing who is going to be captaining the ship. Apples move may be great but it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it. Uncertainty and Apple secrecy are no longer going to be a driving force in keeping Apples stock high. I think a lot of investors are feeling burned by the fact that they have no idea what their investments are really going to. Apple will recover of course but for someone to be blindly putting their money into an investment such as Apple, its high risk, high reward.




Famous last words of every single person whos been bit by a Ponzi or a bad stock investment. If getting rich quick was a valid option, everyone would be rich. Its better to gamble your livelihood on something that is going to mature in time and give you better tax options.

What is a bafoon?

Should've cashed in when it was at $330! Damn! :D

Hold onto your stock - IF you have any. The price will climb again as the new products become available.

If you were going to sell, you should have done it when the price reached $360 this past February and March.

Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim

Woz - no, he isn't the CEO that Apple would require.

–––––––––––––––
People who don't own anything Apple should refrain from making comments because it simply demonstrates their ignorance.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:23 PM
I don't even know which simple arithmetic mistake to correct here.


Your five thousand dollars as you stated it:

Four thousand > IRA

One thousand > AAPL (three shares @ 315.32)

You have $54.04 for a MacBook Air. Where will you get the rest of the money to pay for it out of the five thousand dollars your originally started with?

sockdoggy
Jun 20, 2011, 04:23 PM
If there is any real-world motivation for a stock price decline, it's the foolish approach Apple has taken to Lion distribution. The App Store-only download for Lion is not conducive for businesses. It has the potential to wreck commercial sales of Macs. That is the only real danger Apple is facing right now.

Can you expand? Not sure what you mean.

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 04:23 PM
So you're telling me that investing in a company without knowing any future plans and prices that are astronomical per share is a worthy investment? If you had 5 grand right now would you invest it all in Apple or put it into a ROTH IRA that would make you more money than that Apple stock would? The market is crappy because people make stupid decisions investing and the comments of users on this forum about how happy they are with their 10 shares of Apple is proof that people have no clue what they are doing with their money.

How could you not know their "future plans"? Where have you been the past two years? You can invest on the strength of the iPad alone and stand a good chance. You will *never* know exact details of their roadmap, unless you're involved in some insider trading. But look at their performance, the way they're shaking things up, the coming iPad boom, etc. These are some considerations you should typically make before investing.

Michaelgtrusa
Jun 20, 2011, 04:23 PM
The shareholders can't wait.

deebster
Jun 20, 2011, 04:24 PM
Who is Steve Uncertainty? :D

mccldwll
Jun 20, 2011, 04:25 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

There hasn't been any news about Steve's health getting worse, so pointing at this subject to justify a slight decrease on the AAPL stock share (when many other important names, not just Apple's, have also gone down) I think is an erroneous assumption.

The only "news" anyone needs is to see how sickly and frail he looked at the WWDC (and that city council meeting). Had no energy and didn't do much presenting at all (like he did last year - and he looked sick last year, but nothing like now). Unless he has a miraculous recovery, he looks like he's got about 3 months.

I guess you're not BlindMellon[sic] for nothing.

pyro008
Jun 20, 2011, 04:25 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.
Exactly. The iPod resurrected Apple from insignificance, and the iPhone was another great innovation that made them such a great company. The iPad was not even original since tablets had been around before, they just made it sleeker and slapped a fruit on it, yet it still sold like hotcakes because it was Apple, and it was really the only tablet out at the time (since previous attempts failed). Since the iPhone, there hasn't been a lot of innovation and without Jobs there to convince people that the same old **** is actually new and better ****, how are they going to sustain their market share?
I doubt you are going to find any investors out there who think iPad is on its way down.
There are tons of competitors coming out every day. The question isn't if the iPad is on the way down, but how far it will fall.

Blakeco123
Jun 20, 2011, 04:26 PM
The entire market has been down since around wwdc. It's not just Apple, and it's likely more related to the global economic slump than to uncertainty over Steve.

its not the whole market, its mostly just technology companies. google has dropped almost $150 in the last 3 months, even netflix is down. yet the dow j and nasdaq are up $76 and $13, respectively

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 04:26 PM
Who is Steve Uncertainty? :D

Good catch. ;)

sockdoggy
Jun 20, 2011, 04:26 PM
Woz - no, he isn't the CEO that Apple would require.

Everyone has to admit, Woz would make the best CEO for Mac enthusiasts.

Prices would go down, tech specs would be way up, and everyone would most likely get a share of Apple for every Mac purchase!

The guy is just too nice to run this type of company!

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:26 PM
There is no problem with the uncertainty surrounding Steve Jobs. Do you really think for one minute they don't have someone ready to take Steve's place? They are just not telling anyone who that person is. And that is a prudent move, because clearly, Wallstreet, and the press, would cause all kinds of havoc with that information.


Damn, I was hoping that Apple would pick Steve Jobs' replacement the same way a new pope is chosen.

shaynes
Jun 20, 2011, 04:27 PM
Your five thousand dollars as you stated it:

Four thousand > IRA

One thousand > AAPL (three shares @ 315.32)

You have $54.04 for a MacBook Air. Where will you get the rest of the money to pay for it out of the five thousand dollars your originally started with?

An IRA is an "Individual Retirement Account". The money in that account can be invested however you please. In my case I said I would invest that 4K in AAPL stock. The remaining 1K is available for the computer.

Those of you who have no experience with investing or the markets, it is glaringly obvious. I am hardly a seasoned investor, yet I know how to use Google to look stuff up. Please stop making yourself look like "bafoon"s.

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 04:27 PM
There are tons of competitors coming out every day.

I hadn't noticed. Probably because none of them are very impressive.

Oh look, Huaw - who-ahh - hoo-something - Huawei - I can barely pronounce it, just released a "tablet" device. OMG Look out.

cirus
Jun 20, 2011, 04:28 PM
1. Lion - iMac/MacBook sales are still on the increase and have taken a good chunk out of Microsoft's "lion" share of the PC market. Especially when they're up 15% in April/May in a falling PC market. Pretty impressive. Lion I'm sure will get iPad users to buy into an iMac/MacBook if they haven't got one.



5% is a big chunk? Its nothing.

miografico
Jun 20, 2011, 04:29 PM
Actually I think you’re the one looking at it as a consumer. Apple’s P/E ratio is 15.03 the last time it was that low was at the depths of the 2009 market crash. At that time the iPad was a huge gamble. Cut to 2011 and the iPad is increasingly looking like it will follow the iPod’s dominance in market share/profit rather than the iPhones dominance in profits alone. The growth for the iPad is massive, the growth of the iPhone is still quite large and if you were paying attention the introduction of iCloud is far more significant than photos and music. If Apple doesn’t blow it iCloud will be as important as the iPad.

The whole of the market is overbought. In the 70's, 80's and 90's you looked for a PE ratio of ten or below when you were looking at a long term growth play. Now, anything below 25 is considered a good multiple. That's throwing your money away in my experience. The new rules of investing are meant for consumer suckers who would be better off playing the lottery.

The whole of the market has a long way to come down. People have no clue just about what kind of pain the world market is going to experience once everyone wakes up. What I mean by waking up is taking a simple look at the DJIA vs. the price of commodities. It's fake! It's the biggest bubble we have ever seen here in the US and its about to come crashing down. The reason the indices are as high as they are is because of the massive amount of liquidity that has been pumped into the system.

It's funny money, no one is buying real residential/commercial property outside of Texas, banks are in worse shape than they were in 2007-2008 because there are far less of them and as such are not lending money, companies are hoarding cash, and gold is still through the roof. Track the relation of gold prices to US Market over this century and tell me any time in the past when the market has been on a perpetual upswing alongside of gold?

We are fast heading into an era worse than the Carter era.

If you're not already wealthy and young you would be best suited looking at long term growth companies. If your interest is tech, as long as you keep the proper mindset and stay away from the OTCBB, look for companies with good IP that will be able to license or produce their tech to offset their debt - eventually leading to profitability.

If you are middle aged, middle income and have a family you don't belong in the market to begin with. There are other investment vehicles that will benefit you and your children once the reality of inflation and the new/worse than the last one recession sets in.

ECUpirate44
Jun 20, 2011, 04:29 PM
Tim Cook, quite likely.

Tim Cook would make a great CEO

ECUpirate44
Jun 20, 2011, 04:33 PM
There are tons of competitors coming out every day. The question isn't if the iPad is on the way down, but how far it will fall.

Name one good alternative to the iPad.

BlindMellon
Jun 20, 2011, 04:34 PM
I guess you're not BlindMellon[sic] for nothing.
You must have seen a different keynote than the rest of us.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:35 PM
An IRA is an "Individual Retirement Account". The money in that account can be invested however you please. In my case I said I would invest that 4K in AAPL stock. The remaining 1K is available for the computer.

Those of you who have no experience with investing or the markets, it is glaringly obvious. I am hardly a seasoned investor, yet I know how to use Google to look stuff up. Please stop making yourself look like "bafoon"s.


Oops, I misread your post.

I first interpreted it as you investing four thousand into an IRA and one thousand into AAPL.

My mistake.

shaynes
Jun 20, 2011, 04:40 PM
Oops, I misread your post.

I first interpreted it as you investing four thousand into an IRA and one thousand into AAPL.

My mistake.

Ok, sorry if I was overly harsh. It was actually more directed at the other person in the thread who was giving investment advice, yet clearly didn't understand the difference between an investment account and a stock.

blindzero
Jun 20, 2011, 04:42 PM
It's not completely about Jobs. That has been looming for a long time.

There's nothing we know of in the pipeline. Apple has always been great at having "the next best thing" right around the corner and milking it very well. For a LONG time there was iPhone coming, then iPad coming, then iCloud coming (which was a rather disappointing reveal and possibly a reason for investors taking some profits right now).

If they are truly going into "TV" in a larger way, then once that leaks out the stock will go back up. But until some other great thing is on the horizon...

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 04:43 PM
It is actually easy to scare investors. The stock market is a scam.

Apple is a good investment. But of course you want to buy as low as you can. If you have lots of money to invest, a few dollar drop is worth a lot. The people with lots of money to invest of course get heard and a little "concern" about Steve's health and oh look at the price!

There are some good things on the horizon:
1. No one has really produced a tablet that is selling anywhere near the ipad numbers. The ipad 1 and 2 sold really well. They are good products but I think the ipad 3 next year will be a significant upgrade.

2. The iphone 5. Perhaps the iphone 4.5 too but I think iphone 5 will be big.

3. Sprint. There are some who think the addition of Verizon wasn't big but in fact the on-line sales were huge. And the only reason it wasn't a bigger splash was that it didn't coincide with a new iphone. With iphone 5 Verizon iphone users will grow more. Same with sprint. If the Sprint iphone is released with a new iphone model expect big sales.

4. AppleTV - the next version looks big. This device was a surprise seller. The low cost makes it attractive. And many ApplteTV 2 users will not mind a second, newer AppleTV. Sure it isn't as profitable as an iphone but its cash flowing in.

5. Lion - I think once people realize Lion is adding features to the OS and not replacing OS X with iOS, more people will be excited. There is natural concern from long time OS X users.

6. 1080p video in the itunes store and AppleTV. Ending that talking point will bring a smile to many.

iMikeT
Jun 20, 2011, 04:47 PM
Ok, sorry if I was overly harsh. It was actually more directed at the other person in the thread who was giving investment advice, yet clearly didn't understand the difference between an investment account and a stock.


Like I said, it was my mistake for misreading your post. That's what I get when I'm reading things quickly while I have my mind on other things, like the stupidity of another person. I figured the second part of that post was directed to that person. And like I said earlier, he probably thinks that putting money into a savings account that earns .01% at a bank is a wise investment.

vvswarup
Jun 20, 2011, 04:47 PM
I have said to before. SJ needs to step down and put someone else in.
he can still and should have an active role but not as the CEO.
Take the hit now to stock prices while they are good and not take an even larger hit when he dies. Things are good and him still being active in the company would protect it.

I'm not quite following what you're saying here.

SJ is good at marketing but I honestly do not see him good for CEO stuff. I would not be surprised if a good part of the day to day stuff was already off load to Tim. Just give Tim full control to really steer the ship and repair the many many bridges Jobs has burned.

First of all, a CEO isn't even supposed to be heavily involved with day-to-day matters. That's the role of the Chief Operating Officer. Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer and so far, he has done an amazing job. Look at it this way. What Steve Ballmer was to Bill Gates, Tim Cook is to Steve Jobs. Ballmer was COO of Microsoft before he became CEO. Just because Cook was performed well in the role of COO, it doesn't mean he will perform well as CEO. If he becomes CEO, he has to make the transition from managing day-to-day operations to being the main visionary.

Also, just out of curiosity, what are the "many many bridges" that SJ burned?

*LTD*
Jun 20, 2011, 04:52 PM
Name one good alternative to the iPad.

The next iPad.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 04:54 PM
5% is a big chunk? Its nothing.

100% is the max. 5% is meaningful. 0.1% would be more correctly considered "nothing".

gnasher729
Jun 20, 2011, 04:57 PM
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

The problem is that many investors haven't grasped yet what Apple is starting with iCloud.

zapnyc
Jun 20, 2011, 05:02 PM
the parade of intelligent Apple execs at any major Apple event tells you...

don't worry.

the minute Steve "retires" or God-forbid, has deeper medical issues, the price will go down temporarily. i say buy buy buy buy.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 05:02 PM
The problem is that many investors haven't grasped yet what Apple is starting with iCloud.

...and the investors that do grasp it are buying stocks in carriers and ISPs - because they can see that the next "gold mine" is in bandwidth overage charges.

Helghast
Jun 20, 2011, 05:07 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...


What? How did Windows 8 excite you? They took Window 7, put their mobile GUI on it, and called it Windows 8. It looks ok for tablets and touch screens, but do you seriously think it would make any sense to use with a mouse. Switching apps looks horrible for anyone that uses more than 2 or 3 apps at a time. Just for the record I am using Windows 7 right now, and do not own a single mac. I am not a Mac fanboy, I just don't think Windows 8 looks all that good, especially for non touchscreen laptops and desktops. I realize you can turn off the touch UI, but what else did they show that could be considered "exiting"?

lilo777
Jun 20, 2011, 05:12 PM
Name one good alternative to the iPad.

Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 bests iPad 2 in almost all hardware-related specs (thinner, lighter, better panel tech, better resolution, 2x more RAM, better cameras) but it does suffer a little from immaturity of Android 3.x.

axual
Jun 20, 2011, 05:15 PM
The entire stock market is down ... Apple will be just fine without Steve, and most everyone knows this (except perhaps the author of this article).

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 05:21 PM
The entire stock market is down ... Apple will be just fine without Steve, and most everyone knows this (except perhaps the author of this article).

Today

Dow +1.07%
Microsoft +0.21%
Symantec +0.25%
Yahoo! +0.3%
HPQ -0.01%
Apple -4.94%

Not quite as you say....

lilo777
Jun 20, 2011, 05:24 PM
Today

Dow +1.07%
Microsoft +0.21%
Symantec +0.25%
Yahoo! +0.3%
HPQ -0.01%
Apple -4.94%

Not quite as you say....

It's -$4.94 or -1.54% for APPL but the trend is clear. AAPL is now below the beginning of the year levels.

paradox00
Jun 20, 2011, 05:26 PM
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 bests iPad 2 in almost all hardware-related specs (thinner, lighter, better panel tech, better resolution, 2x more RAM, better cameras) but it does suffer a little from immaturity of Android 3.x.

Pretty big understatement.

PS: Slightly thinner (because the back is plastic), slightly lighter (because the back is plastic), more flexible and less durable (because the back is plastic).

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 05:26 PM
Today

Dow +1.07%
Microsoft +0.21%
Symantec +0.25%
Yahoo! +0.3%
HPQ -0.01%
Apple -4.94%

Not quite as you say....

I watch it every day. The trend is that AAPL's drops have generally coincided with the market overall. Many rebounds too. Sure you can point to a day or two when its not the case. But going over the last year you will find more times when APPL has gone up significantly when the market drops than the other way around.

skunk
Jun 20, 2011, 05:28 PM
If they did a 10:1 share split, it would spur interest in buying shares far more than whether SJ is in charge or not. They're just too damned expensive.

Cod3rror
Jun 20, 2011, 05:29 PM
One of the greatest ironical failures of Steve Jobs at Apple is being too good and having no successor.

Steve Jobs is the face of the company, he is and forever will be the identity of Apple. The fans are loyal to Steve and then Apple.

Once Steve is gone, Apple will go down considerably.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 05:34 PM
But going over the last year you will find more times when APPL has gone up significantly when the market drops than the other way around.

A year ago Jobs was not on his nth medical leave of absensce, and he looked much better than today.


One of the greatest ironical failures of Steve Jobs at Apple is being too good and having no successor.

Steve Jobs is the face of the company, he is and forever will be the identity of Apple. The fans are loyal to Steve and then Apple.

Once Steve is gone, Apple will go down considerably.

QFT

lilo777
Jun 20, 2011, 05:40 PM
Pretty big understatement.

PS: Slightly thinner (because the back is plastic), slightly lighter (because the back is plastic), more flexible and less durable (because the back is plastic).

Plastic back might actually be a good thing. Obviously it is lighter. It also feels very good on touch (better than metal). And as far as structural integrity and rigidity is concerned it is not clear that aluminum helps at all. With half of the tablet being glass, what exactly does aluminum bring? Any hit that is strong enough to break plastic (even when directed at the aluminum part of iPad) will probably shutter the glass screen anyways. And rigidity is provided by glass.

G4DP
Jun 20, 2011, 05:40 PM
...and the investors that do grasp it are buying stocks in carriers and ISPs - because they can see that the next "gold mine" is in bandwidth overage charges.

Spot on. The next one for a boom are the ISP's.

Over here in the UK, BT sure as hell aren't going to let their OpenZone system become clogged with 1000's of people streaming music over wi-fi. Someone somewhere is going to have to pay for all the extra bandwidth use.

Who will that be. Let me think, the user.Unless Apple are going to pay for the Fibre optic update.

ShiftyPig
Jun 20, 2011, 05:47 PM
I've actually started checking the bylines on each story - I don't think I've read anything from Jordan Golson that isn't complete amateur hour.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 06:00 PM
A year ago Jobs was not on his nth medical leave of absensce, and he looked much better than today.

Right but the discussion is about the overall market and AAPL.

The news of the current dip is not that AAPL dropped a bunch TODAY. It has dropped over a period of time and so has the market. Go look at the NASDAQ over the last month and AAPL too. You will see.

So quoting just today's numbers is not really showing anything.

Anyway I've watched AAPL go into these dips and each time come back to gain more than it lost. Lets watch it happen again.

iMaci7
Jun 20, 2011, 06:04 PM
Sell! Sell! Before it's too late!

Way ahead of you :)

vvswarup
Jun 20, 2011, 06:14 PM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

If $6 billion in QUARTERLY profit is "running out of steam" I'll take it, and Apple will too.

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

Until there's a firm release date on Windows 8 and it's actually demoed live, Windows 8 is nothing more than vaporware.

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

Those who bet against the iPad always like to trot out market share numbers for Android. They all seem to forget that the iPad is among the cheapest tablets in its class. In spite of being among the cheapest, the iPad still commands a healthy profit margin of over 30%. This in itself is a game-changer.

3. iPhone - see above...

Define "down." If you mean going "down" in terms of market share, I've got one word for you: profits. That's all that matters.

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

Funny how that works. Apple has been posting record profits quarter after quarter even in this horrible economic situation. Also, Macs have been outpacing the growth of the PC market for the past few quarters in a row.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

The stock may go down if Steve goes. But you just can't argue with the kinds of profits that Apple puts up quarter after quarter.

rdowns
Jun 20, 2011, 06:16 PM
Funny how that works. Apple has been posting record profits quarter after quarter even in this horrible economic situation. Also, Macs have been outpacing the growth of the PC market for the past few 20 quarters in a row.




Fixed that for you.

carlgo
Jun 20, 2011, 06:42 PM
Apple has just drifted into a popular perception that it is a cult of personality. All the iconic Jobs stuff, from his attention-grabbing clothing to his secret illness does nothing but reinforce this silly notion.

There are lots of reasons the stock goes up and down, but this perception is always there and it is not helpful.

cameronjpu
Jun 20, 2011, 07:09 PM
If your price target is $500, a buying range of $300-320 seems unnecessarily limited. Unless Zaky has a bunch of other stocks that have better than 50% appreciation potential?

rtdunham
Jun 20, 2011, 07:47 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

"…it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it"

As in, someone who can't spell one?". :)

3goldens
Jun 20, 2011, 07:51 PM
Wow, what a thread and some of your comments you'd think Steve was already dead!

I thought he looked pretty much the same as he has for awhile, no better, no worse. Saw no evidence otherwise posted here!

I personally, don't think he should step down.

He's on leave so why don't y'all let him be on leave!

He's going nowhere, I assure you! In fact, I'd put money on his moving into the new headquarters when its completed! Bring on the bets!

Personally, I think its just more of the typical posts from the negative and pessimistic among us, always something critical and nasty to say, all in the interest of riling up the people who still appreciate Apple, Jobs and the product line.

Maybe they're doing this to feel better about themselves and their sorry miserable lives, thinking they know better than others how to do this and how to do that. Some of you pretending to know how to run Apple, LMAO!

A bunch of sad sack know it alls making groundless and ignorant statements just to stir the pot!

Nuts to all of you for your thankless insensitive comments.
I'm very glad no one here is running that company, that's for dam sure!

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 07:51 PM
Until there's a firm release date on Windows 8 and it's actually demoed live, Windows 8 is nothing more than vaporware.

The "vaporware" label will be hard to justify when tens of millions of people are running the public betas of Windows 8.

mccldwll
Jun 20, 2011, 08:00 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

The problem is that many investors haven't grasped yet what Apple is starting with iCloud.

That's just one of the many things that "seasoned investor" Mattie Num Nums (who apparently doesn't even know what investments are permitted in a ROTH) hasn't yet grasped.

nylonsteel
Jun 20, 2011, 08:02 PM
In regards to the main article
1) aapl needs a 3 to 1 stock split
2) good time to start building core positions at this price and below
3) alot of good and bad theories about why aapl should be priced higher
4) anyway - i'm still making some money trading aapl both ways
5) good luck to all aapl investors

mccldwll
Jun 20, 2011, 08:10 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Wow, what a thread and some of your comments you'd think Steve was already dead!

I thought he looked pretty much the same as he has for awhile, no better, no worse. Saw no evidence otherwise posted here!

I personally, don't think he should step down.

He's on leave so why don't y'all let him be on leave!

He's going nowhere, I assure you! In fact, I'd put money on his moving into the new headquarters when its completed! Bring on the bets!

Personally, I think its just more of the typical posts from the negative and pessimistic among us, always something critical and nasty to say, all in the interest of riling up the people who still appreciate Apple, Jobs and the product line.

Maybe they're doing this to feel better about themselves and their sorry miserable lives, thinking they know better than others how to do this and how to do that. Some of you pretending to know how to run Apple, LMAO!

A bunch of sad sack know it alls making groundless and ignorant statements just to stir the pot!

Nuts to all of you for your thankless insensitive comments.
I'm very glad no one here is running that company, that's for dam sure!

Amen.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 08:31 PM
He's going nowhere, I assure you! In fact, I'd put money on his moving into the new headquarters when its completed! Bring on the bets!

What odds are you giving that Jobs will still be alive in 2015-2016, and where do we send the money?

vivid-mist
Jun 20, 2011, 08:55 PM
No one will ever fully replace steve.
Instead, once his body begins to fail, he'll upload his conciousness into iCloud, and have a puppet CEO as a figurehead until the public is ready to witness his return to power :apple:

oliversl
Jun 20, 2011, 09:01 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPod; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; es-es) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Its not only Apple, Google is bellow 500$ . It's a market thing it seems

ECUpirate44
Jun 20, 2011, 09:01 PM
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 bests iPad 2 in almost all hardware-related specs (thinner, lighter, better panel tech, better resolution, 2x more RAM, better cameras) but it does suffer a little from immaturity of Android 3.x.

Specs mean nothing without a fluid OS

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 09:03 PM
If I were a troll trying to get some thrill out of upsetting people on a board like this, I would use the obvious trick of speaking nonchalantly about Steve Jobs passing away in the near future. A topic like that is too easy; it is a minimal effort to offend others with a quick line and watch them waste time responding. No response is the best counter measure.


***

Specs mean nothing without a fluid OS

^^Well the specs on the samsung tablet will make the android malware run better anyway.

ChrisTX
Jun 20, 2011, 09:04 PM
People made such a stink about Apple not having a successor to Steve Jobs, until other companies revealed they didn't have such a plan in place either.

iEvolution
Jun 20, 2011, 09:05 PM
Good night sweet apple once Jobs leaves.

We will get more awesome ideas like the 3rd generation shuffle when steve leaves, boy I can't wait!

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 09:11 PM
Way ahead of you :)

Actually yes. Everybody sell so I can buy it cheap before the Back to School and Yule seasons and it climbs again.

Now if you want to know a stock you should sell permanently it is RIMM. They are doomed. A greater than 20% drop over the weekend. And one of their largest share holders sold. I never owned it but I would know my money was lost if I had and hadn't yet sold.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 09:18 PM
People made such a stink about Apple not having a successor to Steve Jobs, until other companies revealed they didn't have such a plan in place either.

Name any other company of comparable size which has such a personality cult around the CEO....

The closest might be Oracle - but Ellison is not a micro-manager involved in day-to-day details. Other people run Oracle, and very few worship Larry.

If Enrique or Brad or Larry died tonight, it wouldn't have much of an impact on the stock.

ChrisTX
Jun 20, 2011, 09:25 PM
Name any other company of comparable size which has such a personality cult around the CEO....

The closest might be Oracle - but Ellison is not a micro-manager involved in day-to-day details. Other people run Oracle, and very few worship Larry.

If Enrique or Brad or Larry died tonight, it wouldn't have much of an impact on the stock.

The other Steve that runs the other software company out of Redmond Washington /Sarcasm.

I get your point, but I think it's more about his creative vision than just the cult like following he has. No other CEO on the planet shares the same creative vision, and passion for their respective company like Mr. Jobs.

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 09:55 PM
The other Steve that runs the other software company out of Redmond Washington /Sarcasm.

I get your point, but I think it's more about his creative vision than just the cult like following he has. No other CEO on the planet shares the same creative vision, and passion for their respective company like Mr. Jobs.

Thank you for so clearly articulating the existence of the personality cult around Steven Paul Jobs, former CEO of Apple Computer Inc.

ChrisTX
Jun 20, 2011, 10:00 PM
Thank you for so clearly articulating the existence of the personality cult around Steven Paul Jobs, former CEO of Apple Computer Inc.

I don't think anyone can deny the existence of such a fanatically religious group of people. :)

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 10:08 PM
The other Steve that runs the other software company out of Redmond Washington /Sarcasm.

I get your point, but I think it's more about his creative vision than just the cult like following he has. No other CEO on the planet shares the same creative vision, and passion for their respective company like Mr. Jobs.

The people who want to believe respect for Jobs' work as CEO equates to some fanatical worshipping of the man will of course jump all over your statement. LOL. They can't help themselves. They have this deep seeded need to make everyone conform to their way of doing things. The fact that someone doesn't use their OS or brand drives them crazy. They need psychological help.

Of course they usually see a statement like i just made and claim users of Apple products are the ones with the need to control others. Yet they forget they are trolling the site for Apple users not the other way around. I hope these people find the help they need.

maclaptop
Jun 20, 2011, 10:54 PM
Hmmm...my prediction for Steve's replacement will be...an intelligent, capable, person in their 40's...no, make that 50's. Yes, this will be the chosen one.

Seriously, Steve Jobs is wonderful and his replacement will undoubtedly be a stellar choice. Apple's gonna be fine.

Keep dreaming, the day Jobs is done, a firestorm of previously hidden issues will surface.

Yet the Cult of Apple will transform Jobs into the new Elvis.

There will be a lot of sympathy purchases, designed to keep panic to a minimum as they wake up to realize the golden goose is gone.

No matter who fills the void, there will be the slap of reality to face. Apple will be forced to compete without its consummate sales person.

A cold wind will whip thru the corporation, it is then that the true Apple will be revealed.

Im thrilled to have bought the vast majority of my Apple shares, in the years where it was only approx $20, $30, & $40 per share. Now I can weather the ups and downs without concern. If if really begins to collapse I'll sell and still walk away smiling

Thanks Apple!

AidenShaw
Jun 20, 2011, 11:03 PM
I'm thrilled to have bought the vast majority of my Apple shares, in the years where it was only approx $20, $30, & $40 per share. Now I can weather the ups and downs without concern. If if really begins to collapse I'll sell and still walk away smiling

Thanks Apple!

Congratulations - you can sell at $300, or $250, or $200, or even $100 and make good profit.

Meanwhile, the people who bought at $320 or higher are saying OMG today.

Avatar74
Jun 20, 2011, 11:15 PM
Im thrilled to have bought the vast majority of my Apple shares, in the years where it was only approx $20, $30, & $40 per share. Now I can weather the ups and downs without concern. If if really begins to collapse I'll sell and still walk away smiling

I would walk away smiling right now, if I were you. The days when Apple was $20 a share would, if you purchased 3000 shares (as I did), net you close to $2 million. That's not really a retirement fund, but it's a step in the right direction.

Otherwise, the words of Benjamin Graham are sage advice (which I have memorized since the crash of 2000):

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

"and" is the most important qualifier here... Either you are an investor, who, through aggressive research rather than aggressive (read: haphazard) trading, seeks both safety of principal and an adequate (not irrational) return, or you are a speculator who listens to the wind and reads the tea leaves, chasing high returns without regard for protection of principal... the absence of the latter of which will completely destroy your portfolio.

Apple as a company is not any longer dependent on Steve Jobs for its success, but the speculation-driven price of its stock is very dependent on Steve Jobs and the brand perception is inextricably linked to his image. They'll continue to thrive, most certainly, as a company well after he is gone, but the "sex" factor of the stock which makes it valued at over six times book value (which is astronomical even if you account for discounted cash flows five quarters forward)... $320 a share is a ludicrous price to pay, and institutions know this—but they couldn't make money out the other side if they told you that, so they don't.

My advice is to take your earnings, be shrewd, and diversify into real investments that have a reasonable rate of return. Chasing after abnormal returns is extremely foolish for a very simple reason: Any number times zero is still zero. Invest in something with a reasonable and relatively predictable return, sit on it, and let compounding interest work its magic over time... and you will come out ahead, way ahead, of the morons who periodically keep vaporizing their principal, resetting the counter to zero, never bothering to calculate the effects of those losses compounded over time.

ten-oak-druid
Jun 20, 2011, 11:34 PM
Well there are people desperate to see Apple's demise. Nothing new. These are the same people who get worked up every 10 years when some malware show sup on the mac.

Of course these people are ignoring financial news about Greece and dropping oil prices to name a couple things.

The way people are spinning things you would think the rest of the market is rising meteorically and AAPL is dropping.

Some analysis:
Stocks: NASDAQ Data Confirmed a Significant Downtrend (http://www.insidefutures.com/article/283643/Stocks:%20NASDAQ%20Data%20Confirmed%20a%20Significant%20Downtrend.html)

No one has changed AAPL's target price. It is still $450 or greater currently.

The other trend I've noticed is speculation from the "experts" is a poor performance prediction before each earnings report from Apple. The stock drops and then the report comes out and blows everyone away. "They sold how many ipads?" And it isn't just iOS devices. Sales of Macs continue to grow while the PC industry overall continues to see decreased sales.

The Economist
Jun 21, 2011, 12:00 AM
As long as the successor of Mr. Jobs isn't Steve Ballmer, or someone related to him, Apple should be just fine.

dolph0291
Jun 21, 2011, 02:28 AM
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

You got excited about Windows 8? Yeah it's pretty I guess. It seems to be a bunch of widgets layered over Windows 7, kind of like a new version of Windows 3.1. I think it would provide too much distraction for me. It seems perfect if you want to be reminded what photos you already have (no thanks), the people you have in your address book (not really), your email count (maybe but I'll check it myself later, thank you) or bombarded with chat requests, Facebook noise and Twitter stuff (all no thanks). I use all those things but I really don't want them in my face all the time. Likewise, since Windows' foothold has always been in the workplace, I can't help but wonder how many businesses will want their employees bombarded with all these distractions. I bet many will run the other way when it's time to upgrade. Who wants their employees working on a computer whose primary focus is social media - unless of course they are in the social media business (in which case they use Macs anyway).

miografico
Jun 21, 2011, 03:04 AM
I would walk away smiling right now, if I were you. The days when Apple was $20 a share would, if you purchased 3000 shares (as I did), net you close to $2 million. That's not really a retirement fund, but it's a step in the right direction.

Otherwise, the words of Benjamin Graham are sage advice (which I have memorized since the crash of 2000):

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

"and" is the most important qualifier here... Either you are an investor, who, through aggressive research rather than aggressive (read: haphazard) trading, seeks both safety of principal and an adequate (not irrational) return, or you are a speculator who listens to the wind and reads the tea leaves, chasing high returns without regard for protection of principal... the absence of the latter of which will completely destroy your portfolio.

Apple as a company is not any longer dependent on Steve Jobs for its success, but the speculation-driven price of its stock is very dependent on Steve Jobs and the brand perception is inextricably linked to his image. They'll continue to thrive, most certainly, as a company well after he is gone, but the "sex" factor of the stock which makes it valued at over six times book value (which is astronomical even if you account for discounted cash flows five quarters forward)... $320 a share is a ludicrous price to pay, and institutions know this—but they couldn't make money out the other side if they told you that, so they don't.

My advice is to take your earnings, be shrewd, and diversify into real investments that have a reasonable rate of return. Chasing after abnormal returns is extremely foolish for a very simple reason: Any number times zero is still zero. Invest in something with a reasonable and relatively predictable return, sit on it, and let compounding interest work its magic over time... and you will come out ahead, way ahead, of the morons who periodically keep vaporizing their principal, resetting the counter to zero, never bothering to calculate the effects of those losses compounded over time.

Thank you! One of the only sane responses on this thread. If you also factor in the desperately weak economic situation, as I did and have been voted down on, you're looking at a sharp decline across the board when the markets as a whole tank. If you think the markets as a whole aren't going to shed 20% once real inflation spurred on by an ever weakening dollar, the overall effect of oil even remaining at 2.90 as the national average, the horrible jobs situation and an ever declining real property market - you're bat#### crazy!

Monolith companies trading at 15 to 20 times earnings in this environment do not have unlimited upside potential they will fall in line eventually with what is a much more reasonable valuation. If you have a profit take your profit end off the table. The markets are not a lottery ticket or a trip to a casino. This is why I hate that every Joe Blow is so heavily invested in securities when 4/5 of them couldn't tell you the difference between Earnings and EBITDA, Long Term vs. Current Liabilities etc. etc. etc.

You can vote the people down all you want who have some modicum of sense, but you can also bet your ass it's all of you who are so heavily invested in Apple, that are going to be the first people whining on this forum about how you lost all your gains.

Apple is overbought simple as that. Google is overbought simple as that. There are much better places to put your money for growth over the long haul.

samcraig
Jun 21, 2011, 07:26 AM
I'd also add that any investment decisions (shrewd ones anyway) are based not only on the items mentioned - but also what the overall strategy/goal/timeframe you have.


Will Apple stock take a hit when Steve Jobs is no longer CEO - I think it's safe yes.

The question becomes how much and for how LONG.

Then the next question is - how long (if ever) will the gains make up for that loss and/or exceed it.

And how long do you want to hold onto the stock. Meaning - if you're in your 60s now - that hit could come at a bad time with the stock gain not happening when you need it.

If you're in your 20s-40s - maybe you'll hold onto it because you have time to see where it goes.

There's no magic bullet answer because everyone's situation is relative. Again - it's about overall strategy and personal financial planning.

Some of the posts here are just plain ignorant. Amusing. But ignorant. And also egocentric.

cameronjpu
Jun 21, 2011, 09:12 AM
So you are telling me that investing in Apple right now as a normal person who has maybe 2-3 grand the invest is a wise decision vs. something like a ROTH?

You do realize that a Roth IRA is just a type of account where you are not taxed on capital gains after selling shares, right? You can own any investment, be it Apple, equity options, currencies or anything else you can imagine, within an IRA. Are you this clueless?

jbutterfill
Jun 21, 2011, 10:45 AM
I dont think you can say the "poor" share price performance of AAPL was due to the Steve Jobs news, but due to poor sentiment regarding the economic soft patch caused by the supply chain disruptions prompted by the Japan earhtquake (particularly effecting AAPL by slowing its sales due to lack of IT components) . Typically tech stock tend to perform best in cyclical upturns, hence thier weakness in an economic soft patch.

Also looking at the MSCI US IT index, since end-April it is down 9.3%, AAPL is down 9.9% over the same period - this is very little difference an hence really just reflects to mood of investors towards the IT sector - the minor underperformance could be argued that it is a much more liquid stock than others in the index and therefore much easier to sell.

The recent price weakness is an opportunity to buy, risk appetite is likely to recover towards the fall.

musio
Jun 21, 2011, 11:53 AM
I'd also add that any investment decisions (shrewd ones anyway) are based not only on the items mentioned - but also what the overall strategy/goal/timeframe you have.


Will Apple stock take a hit when Steve Jobs is no longer CEO - I think it's safe yes.

The question becomes how much and for how LONG.

Then the next question is - how long (if ever) will the gains make up for that loss and/or exceed it.

And how long do you want to hold onto the stock. Meaning - if you're in your 60s now - that hit could come at a bad time with the stock gain not happening when you need it.

If you're in your 20s-40s - maybe you'll hold onto it because you have time to see where it goes.

There's no magic bullet answer because everyone's situation is relative. Again - it's about overall strategy and personal financial planning.

Some of the posts here are just plain ignorant. Amusing. But ignorant. And also egocentric.

That's a clever post. Apple isn't Steve, Apple will go on...I just hope for my investment sake that it will only grow so i can make a return on my money.

iMikeT
Jun 21, 2011, 07:01 PM
I mean to get back to this topic a lot earlier but just found the time.

So, Apple finished +9.98 (3.17%) today. I also noticed that the Dow is up 109.63 (0.91%) and the market in general is up in today's rally. I am left to wonder how well AAPL finished today had to do with this uncertainty about Steve's future at Apple or more to do with the market as a whole. Any takers?

jbutterfill
Jun 22, 2011, 02:26 AM
I mean to get back to this topic a lot earlier but just found the time.

So, Apple finished +9.98 (3.17%) today. I also noticed that the Dow is up 109.63 (0.91%) and the market in general is up in today's rally. I am left to wonder how well AAPL finished today had to do with this uncertainty about Steve's future at Apple or more to do with the market as a whole. Any takers?

The S&P Information Technology index was up 1.95%, AAPL is part of this index - So AAPL beat the IT sector too - Good news in the markets yesterday (existing home sales beat expectations and the Greece problems look a little closer to being resolved) boosted confidence, hence the mentality of traders was to go out and buy more cyclical stock - the IT sector being a classic early economic cycle outperformer. AAPL likely benefited from this good news and traders looking for a route into buying the IT sector may have chosen AAPL because of its successful growth story.

Other drivers of the outperformance could have been due news that the Iphone 5 will have a faster chip, or Asia app store downloads have surged - looking at my bloomberg terminal they seem to be to two key potential price drivers other than the good economic annoucements (after a round of bad ones)

mccldwll
Jun 22, 2011, 07:54 AM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Im thrilled to have bought the vast majority of my Apple shares, in the years where it was only approx $20, $30, & $40 per share. Now I can weather the ups and downs without concern. If if really begins to collapse I'll sell and still walk away smiling

I would walk away smiling right now, if I were you. The days when Apple was $20 a share would, if you purchased 3000 shares (as I did), net you close to $2 million. That's not really a retirement fund, but it's a step in the right direction.

Otherwise, the words of Benjamin Graham are sage advice (which I have memorized since the crash of 2000):

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

"and" is the most important qualifier here... Either you are an investor, who, through aggressive research rather than aggressive (read: haphazard) trading, seeks both safety of principal and an adequate (not irrational) return, or you are a speculator who listens to the wind and reads the tea leaves, chasing high returns without regard for protection of principal... the absence of the latter of which will completely destroy your portfolio.

Apple as a company is not any longer dependent on Steve Jobs for its success, but the speculation-driven price of its stock is very dependent on Steve Jobs and the brand perception is inextricably linked to his image. They'll continue to thrive, most certainly, as a company well after he is gone, but the "sex" factor of the stock which makes it valued at over six times book value (which is astronomical even if you account for discounted cash flows five quarters forward)... $320 a share is a ludicrous price to pay, and institutions know this—but they couldn't make money out the other side if they told you that, so they don't.

My advice is to take your earnings, be shrewd, and diversify into real investments that have a reasonable rate of return. Chasing after abnormal returns is extremely foolish for a very simple reason: Any number times zero is still zero. Invest in something with a reasonable and relatively predictable return, sit on it, and let compounding interest work its magic over time... and you will come out ahead, way ahead, of the morons who periodically keep vaporizing their principal, resetting the counter to zero, never bothering to calculate the effects of those losses compounded over time.

That "advice" is worth exactly what readers are paying for it. Nothing. Aapl is dirt cheap at the moment and anyone who understands investments (as opposed to simply quoting Graham) should know that.

mccldwll
Jun 22, 2011, 08:02 AM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

You got excited about Windows 8? Yeah it's pretty I guess. It seems to be a bunch of widgets layered over Windows 7, kind of like a new version of Windows 3.1. I think it would provide too much distraction for me. It seems perfect if you want to be reminded what photos you already have (no thanks), the people you have in your address book (not really), your email count (maybe but I'll check it myself later, thank you) or bombarded with chat requests, Facebook noise and Twitter stuff (all no thanks). I use all those things but I really don't want them in my face all the time. Likewise, since Windows' foothold has always been in the workplace, I can't help but wonder how many businesses will want their employees bombarded with all these distractions. I bet many will run the other way when it's time to upgrade. Who wants their employees working on a computer whose primary focus is social media - unless of course they are in the social media business (in which case they use Macs anyway).

The mere fact that there are trolls on this site gushing about Windows Beta8 says everything you need to know about how worried msft really is about the demise of its flagship product.