What's the chance Apple releases Lion on the 1st of July?

About the same as any other day, since the release hasn't been announced.

MythicFrost said:

So,

I'm pretty excited about Lion, I've used it a little and can't wait to get it up and running. Seeing that Apple is holding back Macs until Lion is released, what's the likeliness of it being released on the 1st of July? I really hope it is.

Thoughts?

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Given recent reports of constrained supplies of Macbook Airs (which we believe will be released after Lion, or at the same time), it's possible we're looking at an early-month release, rather than later. Maybe not on the first (I would expect a major software release after the long weekend rather than before).

0.1% - July 1
4.9% - July 5
10% - July 12
25% - July 19
35% - July 26
25% - Any other day in July

TEG

Oh right you guys get a long weekend.... Well wouldn't it make sense for them to let you play with it the whole weekend? I guess the thought is if there is anything that needs addressing immediately it would be harder for them, but hey, they could just start giving refunds .

Well, it won't be released on weekends and holiday, so that leaves 20 days total in which Lion can be released. So that would make it 5% chance of Lion coming out in July 1.

But if you want more educated odd, since Lion is not yet in gold master/release candidate status, it's looking almost impossible for Lion to be released that early. Since Lion is now online distribution based, however, i think the gap between actual release and release candidate will be very narrow.

Since Apple always release major OS on Fridays, my guess would be July 15.

July 1st is on the eve of a major US holiday - July 4th - independence day. Apple is not about to launch on the a holiday weekend. Besides, I think they still have work to be done to put the finishing touches on Lion

there hasn't been a GM yet so July 1 looks to bee to soon, although i wish it were that date as well

Stok3 said:

there hasn't been a GM yet so July 1 looks to bee to soon, although i wish it were that date as well

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There is that. Although, the delay between GM release and actual release has been only a couple of days with some of the iOS releases. It's possible that the delay will be shorter for Lion (not saying likely, just possible).

I guess end of July

I think the big slap that Apple got with the Final Cut Pro X release will make everybody more stressed on the release date.

For sure they will take their time to fix and test whatever needs to be solved.

I believe a too early release of Lion that has some problems still would be a real disaster for Apple's image.

They cannot afford that.

Snow Leopard is quite in a good shape.
I used pirated Lion just to test and make an image how the new OS will look like.

I don;t anymore. I am waiting for the final release and see how things come together.

All previous OS X releases where about 24/26 of the month. I guess it will not be released any time sooner.

TEG said:

0.1% - July 1
4.9% - July 5
10% - July 12
25% - July 19
35% - July 26
25% - Any other day in July

TEG

Click to expand...

I guess I agree in principle with the above. That being a late July release seems the most likely based on the version that is in the Dev's hands now. And July 1st is, in my opinion .01% possible.

July 15.

I think they'll release the GM in the first week of July, and release the retail version around July 18 or July 25.

Well, my guesses are based on history. With few exceptions, Apple releases Software and Hardware on Tuesdays, usually the 2nd or 3rd Tuesday in a month.

TEG

It won't be released on the 1st because my birthday is the 2nd and Steve knows it would steal my thunder. I called him.

TEG said:

Well, my guesses are based on history. With few exceptions, Apple releases Software and Hardware on Tuesdays, usually the 2nd or 3rd Tuesday in a month.

TEG

Click to expand...

The past several OS X updates have been released on Fridays.

MythicFrost said:

So,

I'm pretty excited about Lion, I've used it a little and can't wait to get it up and running. Seeing that Apple is holding back Macs until Lion is released, what's the likeliness of it being released on the 1st of July? I really hope it is.

Thoughts?

Click to expand...

Zero I would say. We're bound to see another preview release before they put it out to the public.

Lion on July first?...Without a GM?...Is it probable?...

antmarobel said:

Lion on July first?...Without a GM?...Is it probable?...

Click to expand...

Probable? No. Possible? Yes. I think we're looking at late July. Whenever Apple doesn't have a set release date they seem to release as late as possible. I remember the original iPad 3G release... April 30.

I would love for it to come out tomorrow. That way it would give more time for the bugs to be worked out before I dive in later in the month.

That being said only time will tell. We will all know in a matter of hours.

%80 chance im guessing