BofA: Apple had 'good' quarter, but we're 'very disappoi...

[MacBytes]

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Category: News and Press Releases
Link: BofA: Apple had 'good' quarter, but we're 'very disappointed in iPod unit demand' (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20050414152332)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

[cwtnospam]

Huh?

Didn't they see the numbers? If they're disappointing, what would it take to make them happy? 10,000,000 units shipped? 20,000,000?

[chewbaccapits]

Disappointed........WTF

[dashiel]

SFC! you go from 0%-42% market share of flash based players in less than 2 months. you retain 90% of the HDD market share. you sell more players in a non-holiday season than you did in the holiday season.

if that's disappointing i'd hate to see their evaluation of the dell dj, rio or creative unit sales. what adjectives could they use to describe their unit sales? abysmal? non-existent? irrelevant? embarrassing?

[iGary]

This coming from the company that lost sveral thousand customer's identities. :rolleyes:

[PlaceofDis]

the article states that they are happy with the growth of the shuffle thus far, but are wondering more about the stagnation that is happening/appears to be happening in March and at the beginning of this Quarter, i think this is just worry over iPod sales throughout the year.....eh i think Apple is doing a good job so far, but we will have to see, and there are plenty of machines that still need updating as well.....

[shamino]

the article states that they are happy with the growth of the shuffle thus far, but are wondering more about the stagnation that is happening/appears to be happening in March and at the beginning of this Quarter, i think this is just worry over iPod sales throughout the year.....eh i think Apple is doing a good job so far, but we will have to see, and there are plenty of machines that still need updating as well.....
This is analysts trying to create the illusion of bad news.

They switch their benchmarks around (cash-on-hand, gross revenues, net profit, profit margins, units sold, market share, etc.) as needed to produce a story that has the largest amount of shock appeal. When you're talking about a successful company, this means whatever it takes to make its good news seem bad.

If Apple would get 100% of the entire computer market, the press would call it a bad thing, because there's no longer any ability to increase market share. :rolleyes:

[Daveway]

This bast**d just caused my stock to plunge almost $4!! :mad:

[shamino]

This bast**d just caused my stock to plunge almost $4!! :mad:
Apple stock always seems to drop the day after their conference calls. It happens whether the results of the call are good or bad, and regardless of what the analysts say. The prices usually bounce back in a few days.

I have no idea why this happens.

Keep in mind, also that the entire market lost money today. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices all dropped by 1-1.5%. Which probably amplified the expected downturn in Apple's price.

I decided to take this as a buying opportunity. I had sold by Apple stock at 39 a few weeks ago. Today, I bought it back at 37, expecting it to move back to the 41-45 range pretty soon. I hope I'm guessing right here :)

[nagromme]

iPod unit sales increased for the holidays. They increased even more afterwards, for new products.

What a crushing disappointment if a quarter with NO holiday season and NO new iPod models doesn't show the same increase! :rolleyes:

[Some_Big_Spoon]

These are the same people that bitch and moan about Apple not running windows. Same people that complain about them not using intel processors. You're talking about analysts, BAs and MBAs. These people know nothing, absloutely nothing.

There was a great analysis of executives email/report grammer and spelling on Slashdot a little while back. You're dealing with noncreative, money driven pinheads who write at a 4th grade level... and we trust them with our nation's economy. Fantastic.

In anycase, Apple can do no right in their eyes, and will always be dead, dying, struggling, belabored, you name it. M$ and Haliburton are the business models that they admire and promote. Chew on that.

[SiliconAddict]

I would say that that is just stupid but it’s just stating the retina burningly obvious.

Oh what the heck…That is just plain stupid. What next?

“We are highly disappointed in apple because Apple doesn’t own 107% of the portable music market.”
“But sir how can you own more then 100%?”
*blinks* *blinks*
“As I was saying we are highly disappointed in Apple.”

[Lacero]

Has anyone ever wondered why these analysts are analysts and not majority share stock holders?

[daveL]

They must be out of their mind! Talk about high expectations! No wonder BofA is disappointed with those totally unrealistic projections. I'd be happy to see half that or a bit better, myself.

[J-Squire]

If you read the article properly, you will see that they are not bagging Apple's iPod sales in comparison to other players. Yes, Apple is by far number one, and yes the iPod shuffle dominated in this quarter. What they are saying is, BASED on Apple being the dominant force in the MP3 Player market, BoA needs to reevaluate their overall view of the MP3 player market. They had forecast the industry to boom exponentially to some absurd degree, and expected 50million players to be sold (total, all players) this year. Based on the fact that apple sold 5million (which is great for Apple, they do not discredit this), and apple makes up such a huge percentage of the total sales, it is unlikely that the entire market will hit 50million by the end of the year.

Obviously it is a misleading title. The iPod sales are not dissapointing for Apple, when compared to the rest of the market, but are dissapointing based on BoA's forecast for the entire MP3 player market

[macidiot]

If you read the article properly, you will see that they are not bagging Apple's iPod sales in comparison to other players. Yes, Apple is by far number one, and yes the iPod shuffle dominated in this quarter. What they are saying is, BASED on Apple being the dominant force in the MP3 Player market, BoA needs to reevaluate their overall view of the MP3 player market. They had forecast the industry to boom exponentially to some absurd degree, and expected 50million players to be sold (total, all players) this year. Based on the fact that apple sold 5million (which is great for Apple, they do not discredit this), and apple makes up such a huge percentage of the total sales, it is unlikely that the entire market will hit 50million by the end of the year.

Obviously it is a misleading title. The iPod sales are not dissapointing for Apple, when compared to the rest of the market, but are dissapointing based on BoA's forecast for the entire MP3 player market

Well said. Seems a lot of people didn't get what BofA was saying. They were predicting a total market of 50-60 million mp3 players this year. Given that Apple is expected to have 50-70% marketshare, they would be expected to sell about 25-40 million iPods this year. Since they just reported that they sold 5.3 million in the first quarter, it looks like they are on the low side at best. Barring any radical new device introduction, one could reasonably project that Apple is looking at around 25 million iPod sales this year. Something along the lines of (per quarter) 5.3, 5.5, 7, and 8 million. I increased the last 2 quarters to account for back-to-school and holiday sales...

So, either Apple will lose marketshare (to 50%, down from 70%) or the total market will not be 50 million players. Either way, its a downward revision from their lofty estimates.

Still, anyone with half a brain should know that mp3 player sales (and iPod sales) would not sequentially increase exponentially each quarter like it did last year. At some point sales would flatten out... with slower, but still excellent growth(along the lines of 20+%). I think it will happen next year. Given that 25million in iPod sales would still be more than double last year's sales, this year is still looking pretty good for the iPod and Apple. Unfortunately, Wall St. seems to be looking for sequential growth, a much more difficult proposition.

[macidiot]

Apple stock always seems to drop the day after their conference calls. It happens whether the results of the call are good or bad, and regardless of what the analysts say. The prices usually bounce back in a few days.

I have no idea why this happens.

Keep in mind, also that the entire market lost money today. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices all dropped by 1-1.5%. Which probably amplified the expected downturn in Apple's price.

I decided to take this as a buying opportunity. I had sold by Apple stock at 39 a few weeks ago. Today, I bought it back at 37, expecting it to move back to the 41-45 range pretty soon. I hope I'm guessing right here :)

Lots of stocks behave that way. Enough so that there is even an adage, "buy the rumor, sell the news." Often a stock runs up prior to earnings reports, then experiences a sell off.

Though it is often the case, I don't think that Apple always sells off after an announcement... in the past year or so, Apple stock has often risen dramatically after earnings announcements.

I think in Apple's case, it has a lot to do with conservative forecasting by Apple, and incompetent stock analysts failing to even come close making accurate earnings estimates. Fairly common, a lot of lazy analysts merely take whatever earnings guidance the company gives them and regurgitates it as their own "expert" estimates without any added research. If they used even basic analytical skills and tools, like, umm, the pencil and... the phone, and maybe their eyes, they could probably make reasonable revenue estimates. But I guess that would actually require working.

I happen to agree with you regarding the recent drop as a buying opportunity. Even at the low end, I think Apple should go to $47-50 over the next year or so(my personal estimate, take it however you want). A 30+% gain is pretty nice in such a weak market. Seems like a lot of people that jumped in late are just now realizing that Apple isn't going to quadruple again this year... :rolleyes:

[srobert]

This coming from the company that lost sveral thousand customer's identities. :rolleyes:

Which is also the same company that copy/posted MacDaily's April's fool joke as news. (Apple ditching iTunes for Windows Media) ^_^

[macnulty]

A good example of why experts are not. BofA makes a prediction on a market segment they know not ( it's too new ), and when the prediction is incorrect they blame weak demand ( this time ), or poor marketing, or poor product, or poor consumer confidence, or the moon earth and sun were not quite lined up. Predictions on consumer demand is a fools game.