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MacBytes
May 5, 2005, 11:03 AM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Nowhere to go but down (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20050505120338)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

SiliconAddict
May 5, 2005, 11:10 AM
I stopped after the first paragraph. Wow. I thought you could only get that kind of service off a street corner. :rolleyes:

mkrishnan
May 5, 2005, 11:14 AM
LOL...well, look on the bright side. When Apple closes its doors in six months, no one will have to complain anymore about the frequency with which they obsolete their operating systems by infuriatingly providing new versions! :D

PlaceofDis
May 5, 2005, 11:19 AM
few things.... hasnt the iPod been at the top of the game for more than a year now? they aren't going down all that easily in my opinion. Apple as been ablle to innovate and keep interest in the iPod going strong, sure they can't go much further up, but they can still stay at the top if they are smart

second... who wants a phone to play music!! the battery life would be crap, would carry a very limited amount of songs....etc....people have already voted against a jack of all trades....i dont think the cell phone companies are going to hurt the iPod...

iGary
May 5, 2005, 11:28 AM
Blah, blah, blah.

grapegraphics
May 5, 2005, 11:30 AM
Listen to me carefully... I want my cel phone's battery to be used for calls only... I don't want to charge my phone more often then I do now... If they increase the amolunt of talk time I get from my battery I still don't want to circumnavigate that from it's primary function... the phone.

I see use for a video phone but not just for playing music...

However, I do see a need for a portable iPod like device that houses all my files/apps (incl. media files etc.) so I can be really portable. Like a Mac Mini/iPod hybrid...

Oh yeah, Apple's already on the move towards that... 1st sep, iPod, 2nd step iPod photo, 3rd step... (insert iPod home here)

IMHO

Jb

dsharits
May 5, 2005, 11:42 AM
Why is Microsoft never portrayed in columns like this? Oh yeah, because they've never innovated anyting except for makeshift patches for security holes. I guess this is what you get for being the company that steps up and marks the path for everyone else to follow (copy). Sure, music phones will will overtake the iPod, Wal-Mart will buy out Apple, and the PowerBook G5's will be intruduced tomorrow. :rolleyes:

SPUY767
May 5, 2005, 12:04 PM
. . .that the iPod Mini had 50% of the flash player market. Granted, I can't attest to the accuracy of that claim, but 50%! That's huge, especially so in a market that Apple had exactly 0 presence in a scant few months ago. It appears that bells and whistles won't sway users from pure functionality. That is, at least, until your iPod can give you a "massage".

mkrishnan
May 5, 2005, 12:08 PM
. . .that the iPod Mini had 50% of the flash player market. Granted, I can't attest to the accuracy of that claim, but 50%!

I think that the iPod *shuffle* might have 50% of the flash market, but if the stats you read said the Mini does...then...hmm... :rolleyes:

Yvan256
May 5, 2005, 12:12 PM
Another blind review that only sees the iPod instead of the iPod + iTunes (+iTMS)...

If phone company charge you 2-3$ for a stupid ringtone, do you really think you'll get whole, complete songs for 99 cents?

Do you really think they'll use something else than Microsoft's WMA? (except that Motorola phone)

Does anyone really want to pay 2-5$ for a DRM'ed WMA song?

Yvan256
May 5, 2005, 12:13 PM
I think that the iPod *shuffle* might have 50% of the flash market, but if the stats you read said the Mini does...then...hmm... :rolleyes:

When Apple introduced the iPod mini, it took about 50% of the flash market. And the last news are about the iPod shuffle taking roughly 50% of the remaining of the flash market.

svenr
May 5, 2005, 12:14 PM
To be honest, I wouldn't mind a music-playing phone.

Why do you guys think Apple cooperated with Motorola to develop the iTunes phone? Because there's absolutely no market for it? Come on, if they had intruduced that recently, as they had originally planned, you guys now complaining about this "stupid" idea would be all over it right now.

And simply the idea of carrying one device instead of two IS appealing to me. I could envision a phone that looks and feels like any good phone but has the capability of playing lots of MP3s. Why not? There are already phones out there that do that and with flash memory getting cheaper and larger in capacity by the day, I can only see them getting more attractive. I'm sure the battery won't be that big a problem either. I am always able to put my phone on a charger over night and the technology can also only improve.

I'd go even further and say if a phone gives me access to a million-song library that I can listen to whereever and whenever because the music comes streaming over the airwaves, I'd even pay for subscription.

PlaceofDis
May 5, 2005, 12:16 PM
When Apple introduced the iPod mini, it took about 50% of the flash market. And the last news are about the iPod shuffle taking roughly 50% of the remaining of the flash market.

but the minis are hard-drive based not flash drive based

James Philp
May 5, 2005, 12:32 PM
These phones are gonna be bricks (compared to most models now), last for 5 hours if you listen to a lot of music, and browsing your 3000 songs will take an AGE, with all the keys getting in the way.
What will happen when the juice runs out!?
1. A phone for phone calls (god knows who wants to video call, unless there's something kinky in it - seriously, i can see that as the only benefit!- it's one of the only things I do with my Camera Phone)
2. A Palm for organizing my life
3. A iPod for listening to my Audiobooks & Music.
(4. My Powerbook, YUM :))

Sure, it's more stuff, but then I can "multi-task" without worrying about battery all the time! (Can I listen to an hour more music, and still be able to use the phone tonight!? - Agh!)

Sure, Apple can't really expand any more, but what's stopping them staying on top? They have the know-how on how to innovate and be dynamic!

daveL
May 5, 2005, 12:41 PM
Yep. I can see it now. All those millions of iPods, costing billions of dollars, are just going to get tossed in the trash can in lieu of music capable cell phones that will have a lot more limitations and costs. Of course, that won't happen just yet, since the service for cell phones will take a couple years to roll out, mature and gain any sort of market penetration. And, of course, everyone lives in an area that provides inexpensive, reliable, medium data rate cell service. The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

cwtnospam
May 5, 2005, 12:50 PM
And this just in....
http://news.com.com/Anticopying+fight+mars+mobile+music/2100-1025_3-5695758.html?tag=nefd.lede
Apparently, Apple's demise has been put on hold again.
:D
Plus, if they ever do get their acts together, the phone companies intend to double dip. They're want to charge you for the song and the airtime to download it!

Gizmotoy
May 5, 2005, 12:58 PM
I think the article is right on a few points. While I don't forsee cell phones being a major competitor to any of the music devices, iPod or otherwise, the iPod clearly dominates the market. How much more can Apple control? There's not much marketshare left to be had. Probably the best Apple can do at this point is hope to retain the marketshare they currently have by adding new features to the line. In order to continue the tremendous growth they've been enjoying they're gonna have to push the Mac line and hope the Halo Effect really exists (and it has appeared lately that it does).

Which is obviously not to say that they're in any sort of financial trouble. The iPod has ensured Apple's continued success and relevence for the forseeable future. You have to agree, though, that the growth pace they've been on lately can't continue forever, and does appear to be coming to an end...

- An Apple shareholder.

Yvan256
May 5, 2005, 01:06 PM
but the minis are hard-drive based not flash drive based

Yes but the mini still took 50% of what remained of the flash market at the time. Watch the january 2005 keynote.

mkrishnan
May 5, 2005, 01:11 PM
Yes but the mini still took 50% of what remained of the flash market at the time. Watch the january 2005 keynote.

I understand what you mean now. Yes, definitely true. This is a case where the first-to-market advantage doesn't hold. Like Small / Cute SUVs in the US....

Cooknn
May 5, 2005, 01:14 PM
If Apple really does fire up a Satellite HD Video Network (http://www.macosrumors.com/20050320.php) (I know it's from MOSR), the continued success of the iPod might not make a difference. Apple could change everything regarding content delivery to your Hi-Def television. I believe the gig by Sony's president on stage with Steve was a clue to this future partnership. Apple could even be working on the OS for Sony's forthcoming Cell HDTV (http://www.neoseeker.com/news/story/4533/) ;)

AoWolf
May 5, 2005, 04:01 PM
I don't know it seems to me iPod is becoming the new word for Mp3 player kind of like the walkman did in its day. In the end people will want dedicated music players and apple is the brand know for high quality in the Mp3 player market.

J-Squire
May 5, 2005, 08:39 PM
I understand what you mean now. Yes, definitely true. This is a case where the first-to-market advantage doesn't hold. Like Small / Cute SUVs in the US....

I recently did a marketing assignment on the iPod, so I can tell you that the mini actually increased Apple's ipod market share in the total mp3 player market by 30%. Prior to the mini, Apple had 40% market share in the total market (flash and HD). A year after the mini, it had 68% of total market.

The iPod shuffle is set to increase that share even more.

On the topic of this article, I do not see the fear that Apple is headed downhill. Yes, I think the iPod ride is now at the top of its game. It will continue to bring in huge revenue for Apple over the next few years, but we will no longer see triple figure sales percent increases. But so what? The iPod is the dominant music player, and has set iTunes up to be the dominant music store for years to come (thanks to Apple's "closed platform" decisions).

But the main effect is that Apple is once again a reputable brand, and it's computers are beginning to sell - in numbers. The press around Tiger has been huge. So even if the iPod is downgraded to just "market leader" instead of "market dominator", Apple has huge potential to increase pc sales.

And like the article says, Apple has a history of creating "catchy tunes", and will continue to do so. They will create more innovative products that attract consumer attention, even once the iPod is out of the spotlight. At least now, the market is looking at Apple to see what that product will be. When the iPod was released, it had to create its own hype, coz noone simply wanted to buy it because Apple made it (other than us mac-nuts).

Anyway, if you have made it all the way to the end of this rant, take a rest, and then vent your comments...

sworthy
May 5, 2005, 10:59 PM
cell phones will be the next thing. However, there will have to be a major technological breakthrough in battery technology first... something that will take at least a few years. However, Apple is planning for this and will already be offering phones w/ itunes on them. Technology constantly evolves, but this article assumes Apple won't evolve with it - which is a pretty horrible assumption.