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MacBytes
May 16, 2005, 05:02 PM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Cringley: Apple, Yahoo and Google to take over the digital world, ousting Microsoft. (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20050516180231)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

ariza910
May 16, 2005, 05:21 PM
The author mentions Apples upcoming movie service?! does he know something we dont? Sounds a lot more as a stament rather than speculation on his part.

"Maybe Microsoft feels at a disadvantage to Apple's upcoming movie service. "

mvc
May 16, 2005, 05:34 PM
This guy is building castles in the air. He is extrapolating from small atoms of data into vast shakey edifices of speculation, with no regard to conflicting information at all. Magnificent. :p

thequicksilver
May 16, 2005, 05:59 PM
Cringely is one of the most respected tech pundits out there. Anybody who isn't in his contacts book isn't worth knowing. When he talks, people listen.

While he will indeed speculate at times, a Cringely speculation is at least a validation of the credibility of a project. Read some of his archived stuff to get more of a flavour, it's very interesting stuff.

montex
May 16, 2005, 06:17 PM
Oh Lord, when will these Op-Ed writers finally realize that people don't want to rent music? He seems to acknowledge this fact by pointing out the the subscription model is "preferred by record companies".

Renting Music = Not Gonna Happen

bryanc
May 16, 2005, 06:18 PM
He's often wrong, but usually in interesting ways. I think he's probably mostly right this time.

The only major trend he doesn't seem to have integrated into his prognostications is the impending (and, at this stage, unavoidable) implosion of the US economy. They've long ago lost traction, and as they loose momentum (due to rising gas prices) their economy will collapse into recession. That will affect everything, including Apple's online movie rentals and especially Google's expansion into becoming an 'everything provider'.

What Apple, Google and all the others need to do to weather the coming economic storm is get their products and services more widely adopted in Europe, and, more importantly, Asia (esp. China and India). Apple is reasonably well positioned to accomplish this, but doesn't seem to 'get it' yet.

We'll see how well these big players adapt to the rapidly changing economic landscape.

Cheers

daveL
May 16, 2005, 06:32 PM
He's often wrong, but usually in interesting ways. I think he's probably mostly right this time.

The only major trend he doesn't seem to have integrated into his prognostications is the impending (and, at this stage, unavoidable) implosion of the US economy. They've long ago lost traction, and as they loose momentum (due to rising gas prices) their economy will collapse into recession. That will affect everything, including Apple's online movie rentals and especially Google's expansion into becoming an 'everything provider'.

What Apple, Google and all the others need to do to weather the coming economic storm is get their products and services more widely adopted in Europe, and, more importantly, Asia (esp. China and India). Apple is reasonably well positioned to accomplish this, but doesn't seem to 'get it' yet.

We'll see how well these big players adapt to the rapidly changing economic landscape.

Cheers
Wow. A bit off-topic? First, oil prices aren't going to stay at their recent levels. Second, if the US economy does tank, then Canada will be coming along for the ride.

Anyway, the article was interesting, even with the large dose of speculation.

LaMerVipere
May 16, 2005, 06:39 PM
Bring on iFlicks! ;)

zap2
May 16, 2005, 06:48 PM
oil prices are too high becasue of the cars that use so much gas, get a hybrid to start. I could see the econmoy tanking , i mean that 7.7trillion debt is going to affected us soon. The Great Depression 2, and the next FDR, Hillary Clinton or Obama

iGary
May 16, 2005, 06:55 PM
Yahoo is not going anywhere with their music service. Let's remember, Apple offers the whole package: player, jukebox, store. No one else does this.

As far as movies, yeah, I think we are seeing the bricks laid for this. Quicktime 7, H.264, HD movie trailers. 150GB drives and 128 MB vid cards in iMacs...yeah it's coming, but the guess is when.

Analog Kid
May 16, 2005, 07:01 PM
Sounds a bit over the top to me... Loves to read himself type though.

macnulty
May 16, 2005, 08:10 PM
1. His Xbox 360 conjecture is off base. Windows OEM's are thrilled it is using PowerPC and not Intel so it can't be hacked for PC use. I don't think it's a matter of what's more important but Xbox is their widget. Windows and Office are the money makers
2. Speculation such as on Google seems to come around every 3 or 4 years, just pick the current hot tech company or service. Besides what is brilliant about a strategy about presenting a warmed over product? For WPA to be relevant they would need vastly increase local access numbers for dial up then contend with increasing popularity of broadband.
3. Subscription is not a challenge to Apple as long as the iPod commands the market. Yahoo subscription is just another faceless entry in a crowded field, offering nothing distinctive to set it apart.
4. Video is still bottle necked by lack of prevalent broadband.
5. US economy imploding not likely. In current dollars, gas prices are cheaper now then they were 20 years ago. As far as national debt, as a percentage of GDP, it is actually quite small. Federal debt would not be a typical cause of a depression, high tax high tariff suppressing economic activity would be.

mainstreetmark
May 16, 2005, 08:29 PM
Oh Lord, when will these Op-Ed writers finally realize that people don't want to rent music? He seems to acknowledge this fact by pointing out the the subscription model is "preferred by record companies".

Renting Music = Not Gonna Happen

Careful. You sound like a Steve Jobs Regurgitron.

People apparently DO want to rent music, or Napster and friends wouldn't be successful in the least. I accept that they're "new", and may take time to wash out and that they're not as successful as iTMS, but it is happening.

You also must remember that a large chunk of these digital customers are early highschoolers who finally have some money (easily affording $7 a month), want everything (not limited to highschoolers, i guess) and never knew what building a physically CD collection meant -- or even remember the original (actual) Napster.

I'm a pay-per-title person, but only because it means I can have some sense of what it was like when I had a huge CD collection - a collection that a friend could come over, physically look through, and walk out with a vague sense of who I am as a person. You can't do that with the iPod or iTMS because everything lives inside a small white and silver box which, barring the engraving on the back, looks just like your neighbor's. I no longer have the "musical identity" which is defined by the CD's on the shelves in my room. I prefer pay-per-title so I retain a small sense of ownership of my musical identity - that I actually own what I paid for.

The new consumers have no idea what a musical identity is, and so Subscription will be just fine, because they can listen to all the crap that's on ClearChannel and MTV. They will never spend years acquiring the perfect musical collection.

And to be perfectly blunt, would you rather pay a monthly to Sirius/XM for unlimited music, or a monthly to Napster and be able to pick and choose unlimited music? I'd rather be able to pick and choose, and would, sadly, choose Napster over satrad. (Incidentally, I've long said that Napster should be going after satrad customers over iPod customers. They've got a much better chance at converting them) (Incidentally #2, I have stock in both sirius and xm, so don't stop using them on account of me!)

joecool85
May 16, 2005, 08:50 PM
Wow...all so interesting. I will say one thing though, MS will die out...not for a LONG time. Way too many people have way too much invested, mentally, physically, and monetarilly. Btw, if the US does go into a financial pitfall, I'm moving to Canada! It's only a couple hours away, and I can snowmobile for an extra couple of months!

2GMario
May 17, 2005, 01:46 PM
i hear wind chill in Montreal is deadly...

im a pay per track person also, only downfalls of iTunes (not sure of others, and this is as of 6 months ago), iTunes doesnt care much of the music i listen to (dance, techno, jungle, etc...)

on the other hand, i have both XM in my car and XM Online, which i probably listen to more than i do my iPod

not because my iPod is a pain to listen to, i have the alpine iPod adapter nicly integrated into my cva-1004 in my car, but because XM offers me something the iPod doesnt - randomness and variety

theres many times il be listening to XM, hear a song i like, write down the name and go looking for it. most of them are not from artists i know before hand, and almost all are not available on iTunes. finding the songs usually requires a P2P network cause a: i dont have a record player (most euro techno is released on vinal) and b: most arent released in the USA.

i dont agree with the rental services, but clearly others do, its just not for me. as said above, buying the song lends to some what owning it, even if a format makes it disapear.

2 cents
-Mario