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MacBytes
May 26, 2005, 11:21 AM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: The Gathering Storm: Waiting For the Microsoft Beat Down (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20050526122122)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

Phobophobia
May 26, 2005, 11:35 AM
FUD. An insult to all true Apple fans.

SFVCyclone
May 26, 2005, 12:39 PM
Did this guy come from the year 2020 or wuh? :D i guess he thinks he has a crystal ball, wow everybody check out his BIO (http://applematters.com/index.php/bios/chris_seibold/) he doesn't seem like a true apple fan to me, is some one getting payed by some one else, maybe. ;)

shamino
May 26, 2005, 02:03 PM
So the upshot of this article is: Ignore everything you see. Microsoft is going to take over the world sooner or later, and there's nothing anybody can do about it.

Yeah right. They once said the same thing about IBM too.

yellow
May 26, 2005, 02:23 PM
So displacing Google will be no real trick for Microsoft, make MSN search very accessible in IE 7 and Longhorn, improve the algorithms so the results are roughly equivalent to Google’s and suddenly Microsoft is moving customers from Google to their services with record speed.

Anti-trust suit (again), anyone? :)

(at this rate it will be right around the time the iPod’s cool has worn off)

You might think so, but hey.. it hasn't happened yet. This will be when Apple drops the iPhodotone [iSnap?](iPod/iCamera[photo]/iPhone) on our heads, for a cool $500 big ones.

shamino
May 26, 2005, 02:26 PM
Anti-trust suit (again), anyone? :)
Only if there's a Democrat in the White House at the time, unfortunately.

yellow
May 26, 2005, 02:27 PM
Only if there's a Democrat in the White House at the time, unfortunately.

Well, we can all hope, right? :D

nagromme
May 26, 2005, 03:16 PM
Microsoft will only fall slowly, not all at once.

Nothing too shocking about that. Slowly does not equal never.

Fender2112
May 26, 2005, 05:27 PM
This speculation is based on the assumption that while Microsoft is playing catchup, everyone else just sits around doing nothing. The fact is that Microsoft takes too long with their invovation and implementaion.

Loge
May 26, 2005, 06:49 PM
"...Microsoft makes other players easier and more convenient to use than the iPod and iTunes one might expect the market to begin slowly shifting."

ROFL !!

mkrishnan
May 26, 2005, 07:12 PM
I mostly think this is FUD too, but sometimes, I think the iPod is in danger of being the next Palm. Apple has been very deft in avoiding this so far, but it's a constant threat. People said the same things about Windows handhelds then that they do about WMP media devices now -- that they were clunky, that they had a bunch of additional features no one wanted, and that Palm was much better at doing the core functionality. The situation is not completely analogous -- iTMS is a big difference. But still....

solvs
May 26, 2005, 08:34 PM
This speculation is based on the assumption that while Microsoft is playing catchup, everyone else just sits around doing nothing.
Exactly. For some reason these people seem to think that other companies will still have the same products, and as soon as Microsoft catches up to what they have right now, everyone will just start using M$s products because they are there. While that may have been partially true in the past, it holds a lot less water now. Other companies, especially Apple, will not be resting on their laurels anytime soon. And M$ will still be playing catch-up in fields they don't have monopolies in.

I might have believed this in the past, but we're still waiting for that beat-down they've been promising for the past few years now. Still waiting for that hammer to fall M$. Any day now. :rolleyes:

Montserrat
May 27, 2005, 06:48 AM
I think the article doesn't seem to recognise that the environment in which products are used changes continually. Even 5 years ago, internet access was pathetic compared to what we have now - and that was when the last version of Windows was released. Now that internet access is so widespread, people's demands for computers change. I think we might be in an era (hey we'll only ever know in hindsight) where there is real competition - sure it'll be a long time before M$ disappears, but it is becoming rapidly evident that one company can't do everything well, and now that people know the competition through the more connected world of the internet, other brands have forced there way into the consciousness of the public.
The best situation for us is a competitive arena - sure there's nothing in Longhorn that Tiger can't do, but 6 months after Longhorn's out we'll all be using OS X 10.5. M$ will be dominant, because most people aren't aware they have an option, but providing OS X's features continue to be more innovative and better implemented then I think there will be a definate shift.
Ultimately it's all speculation, but a more even playing field equals a better products.

shamino
May 27, 2005, 10:22 AM
I mostly think this is FUD too, but sometimes, I think the iPod is in danger of being the next Palm.
Palm suffered for several reasons, not all of which are relevant to the iPod.

Palm ended up going head-to-head against Windows in an OS war. Yes, WinCE was not that popular, and it isn't anything like real Windows, but it has the magic name "Windows" attached. Lots of customers were conned into believing that their iPaq (or whatever) would be able to do everything their laptop did.
Of course, WinCE is not Windows - it's not even close. Palm should've played this up with ad campaigns. They didn't. So when people got ticked off at WinCE, they transferred that anger to the entire concept of PDAs.
Palm was extremely slow to embrace features that customers were demanding - like high-resolution color screens, keyboards, voice recorders, music playback, etc. They offer these now, but only after losing most of the market. They should've been pursuing these from day-one, in order to be able to roll them out at the same time as (or maybe even before) the competition.
Although the MHz Myth is a myth, people believe it. Palm's competition was advertising devices running in the hundreds of MHz, with megs of memory. The fact that that advantage was entirely consumed by the overhead of Windows CE didn't matter to customers. Palm eventually did release models with faster chips and more memory, but only after being trounced by the competition.
The PalmOne/PalmSource split was a dumb idea. All of a sudden, half of the company is telling customers to buy from competitors.
Cell phones have incorporated the most important PDA features - address book, calendar, and games, taking away the market. Palm should've been pushing hard to release phones with PalmOS. Aside from the Treo, I can't think of a single model
WRT the iPod, we're mostly in a different market.

The iPod is not in an OS war with Microsoft. It's (at best) in a music-format/DRM war. And for now, it appears that Microsoft is losing. Apple must remain vigilent, in case this trend changes, but they'd be foolish to compromise anything until that happens.

Apple doesn't appear to have any plans to break up their hardware and software groups into separate competing companies.

Cell phones might start displacing iPods as music players. Which is why Apple is working with Motorola to get in on the ground floor. If/when the feature starts to become really popular, Apple will be ready to capitalize on it.

I see a lot of similarity between Palm and the old-Apple (the Apple that kept on selling slow 68K boxes for premium prices instead of innovating new ideas). I think today's Apple has learned their lesson. (Now, if only IBM would finish developing the chips they need to apply this lesson in the Mac market.)

mkrishnan
May 27, 2005, 12:08 PM
I see a lot of similarity between Palm and the old-Apple (the Apple that kept on selling slow 68K boxes for premium prices instead of innovating new ideas). I think today's Apple has learned their lesson. (Now, if only IBM would finish developing the chips they need to apply this lesson in the Mac market.)

Yes, I mostly agree with your analysis of what went wrong with Palm, and your conclusion that Apple understands things Palm failed to learn, but there are still a striking number of similarities, even on your version of the list.... I don't think things will happen to Apple in the way they happened to Palm. I'm just concerned that it is a danger, and that it should be a prominent case-study in Apple's minds if they want to stay ahead of MS.