Mobile devices aren't just disrupting the computer market, they're going to destroy the existing console model as well. Here's why:
Do you really mean destroy? I'd say it won't look the same, or serve the same purpose, but I don't see Microsoft or Sony exiting the console market any time soon.
sunspot42 said:
On the other hand, if they don't spend billions developing and subsidizing awesome new hardware there's gonna be a different kind of bloodbath, because hardcore gamers - the guys the studios count on to spend big bucks on big complicated titles - will start to migrate to the PC if next-gen consoles can't offer a superior experience.
I think the one saving grace for the console market is that it no longer really needs "awesome new hardware". At least, you don't need to mash together a couple next gen CPUs and GPUs to make a game look good. I think the hardware for the past couple years has outstripped developers ability/time/money to take advantage of. At this point the XBOX 360 was released almost
seven years ago. In that time games continue to get better and better (visualy) not because the hardware has allowed them to, but because the primary motivation for "shiny new game" is only to beat what has come previously. Once they beat the previous benchmark (which isn't an easy feat), the priority for
even better graphics goes down.
The 360 was certainly no slouch when it was released. But I think that someone could release a console with year old hardware, making it substantially cheaper, and still power the next generation of games for many years to come. When a current costumer goes looking for a console, they don't care that the xbox only has 512mb of video ram, they care that GW3 plays flawlessly. They care that the next version of their favorite game looks beautiful. No don't there are still people obsest with specs out there, but I don't think they are the majority, and I don't think it matters like it did 10 or 20 years ago.
sunspot42 said:
The gaming business as we've known it for the past couple of decades is about to be hopelessly disrupted by the mobile revolution. The same sort of thing happened back in the early '80s, when the price of a decent home computer fell down into the same range as the price of a game console, while offering better graphics and cheaper software. Atari, Coleco, Mattel and a host of other industry heavyweights all imploded as a result, along with a bunch of software makers. Look for Microsoft (at least their gaming business), Sony and Nintendo to suffer a similar fate.
I think you are spot on. The only thing I don't think will happen will be seeing the big players fall quickly. In terms of profit, units sold, and costumer differentiation, the big players today really outstrip old school companies like Atari.
Though this assumption is based that one segment steals gamers from the other segment. What is is fact happening is that gamers are locked into a segment based on the games that are provided, for instance, a hardcore FPS/RTS gamer will have a hardcore PC, and probably a console for some aimless relief, they will also probably have a mobile phone with some games on it for when they are travelling to and from work. At the end of the day they live for complex PC titles though play the others.
I think you're wrong, at least as any sort of absolute. I think "mobile" gaming has expanded the gaming market in terms of the number of "gamers", but I also think that as the avenues for getting ones "game on" diversifies, that people will pick and choose where they spend their time. I think it is completely plausible that people will game on multiple platforms, but a person will not own every platform, therefore some platforms have to suffer. Personally, I grew up as a hard core computer gamer. I dreamed of new graphics cards. Now days, I play lots of card and turn based games on my iPhone/iPad and FPS style games on my 360. I didn't research and choose, those, they ended up in my life. And do you know what I find? I don't dream about expensive computer graphics cards any more. I'm quite satisfied by what I have. I don't think what happened to me is the end all, but I bet you that there are people out there that have a computer and phone, and find they don't want a console any more, or any combination. The days when "To be a gamer" when that you had a console, or cutting edge computer hardware are over.
Take infinity blade, in all honesty it gets really boring real fast, its just repetitive and frankly not a great game, though I have it, and use it to pass time. While at home I would never play it while I have my PC and a console.
Nor would I, but that's entirely because it's a shallow game. It's not boring because the graphics are bad, it's boring because they put all their money into graphics. Quite frankly that's how I feel with a lot of "cutting edge" games these days. They look pretty, but they have no soul, they aren't "fun". I have played a few RPG style iPhone games that had a pretty good story, and though they were simple and didn't have the graphics or complexity of a modern computer RPG, they were really
fun.
At the end of the day there are soooooooooo many more casual gamers/bored people out there that are happy to spend $0.99 on a game to pass time while commuting etc, just cause Epic made a heap of money of these bored communiting sods... does not indicate gamers are about to jump ship, on the contrary most consider mobile gaming without physical control to be a joke.
In fact you are talking about a segment of the gaming market. I don't think people that blow a large sum of money and stand in line for Diablo so that they can play it all night to be the "real" gamers, and everyone who plays Solitaire to not be. I think that if gaming companies have the simple mindset that you do, that they will fail.
The mobile game industry will grow bigger, though PCs and Consoles are going nowwhere. People said consoles would kill PCs, due to the much lower cost and graphics capabilities..... on that there is no point comparing todays PCS with thier GPUs to a PS3 which was released in 2006, back in 2006 you would have to spend a fortune on a PC to match the PS3. PCs gaming has infact become stronger where it should have died. What Consoles and mobile cannot tap is MMORPGs.
Very true. And I think that's where "niche" and "diversified" comes into play. "Back in the day" the number of distinct genres was few, or their were few titles in those distinct genres. Now days if you want to be an MMO, or straight RPG player, you play on a computer. Why? Because it is the best tool for the job. Want to spend hours on end playing card games vs a computer? Spend the money on a touch tablet, as they offer the best experience. Does this mean that you can't use other tools for the job? Of course not! But if you are a "true gamer" in your genre, you will likely buy the best tool for it, and you won't bother with the other ones.
The mobile gaming industry has been the fastest growing thanks to apple, though once PS4 and Xbox 360 2 or whatever comes out, consoles will boom again, PC gaming future is looking bright also. I just wonder if Mobile can continue its rise or will is steady out
I think that gaming, as an entertainment industry, is still growing. That doesn't mean more and more people are convinced that Gears Of War is the way to spend ones time any more than convincing adults in the 70s that Pong is really where it was at. But all new forms of entertainment start out simple (radio, film, music) and expand to fill people's desire. I think that many older forms have filled most of their respective areas, and gaming entertainment has not. But in order to expand their market, each platform needs to try and find a "gaming experience" that invites new people into the fold. They can do that by narrowing it down and being the absolute best at a particular thing, or they can go wide and broad and try and do everything. Time will tell what the best strategy is, but I think what is for sure is that doing the same-O-same-O isn't going to bring in the same kind of profit in the future.
