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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2012 Earnings Call

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MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list of analyst expectations ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 68 analysts: 34 "independent" and 34 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

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As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $12.31 on revenue of $41.49 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $10.33 on $37.21 billion in revenue. This is a 12% difference on revenue and a 19% difference on EPS.

Apple will announce its earnings for the third fiscal quarter of 2012 (second calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Last quarter the company earned $11.6 billion in profit on revenue of $39.2 billion. For the second fiscal quarter, Apple has issued guidance of $34 billion in revenue with profits of $8.68 per share. The company typically exceeds its guidance by a significant margin.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2012 Earnings Call
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/24/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q3-2012-earnings-call/
Reason077

Reason077

macrumors 68040
Aug 14, 2007
3,605
3,639
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?
 
Small White Car

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,966
1,463
Washington DC
Reason077 said:
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?
Click to expand...

I don't think there was enough time for it to make up the difference. Pretty much every Mac was way overdue for an update at the start of the quarter. Mac sales will pick up through back-to-school shopping now and then holiday shopping after that. But for tonight I don't think you'll hear amazing Mac numbers. (Up from the previous year, I'm sure, but it won't blow us away.)

I think that the only really big news we'll hear tonight will be iPad related.
 
C

chakdey

macrumors regular
Aug 9, 2008
106
76
Low iPhone numbers, low imac and macbook number, high ipad numbers. I'm kind of worried about my shares. I been holding on to my shares for almost a year now. I would love for the stock to jump 7% or higher like it always does, but I would not be surprised if it does not. Delays in releasing new products and most people holding out for the new releases might hurt the numbers this quarter. We will find out in few hours.
 
C

cvaldes

macrumors 68040
Dec 14, 2006
3,237
0
somewhere else
Reason077 said:
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?
Click to expand...
Unlikely, it was announced on the 11th of June and only shipped for a few weeks under constrained availability.

Plus the 15" notebook is not the top volume model anyhow. It's the 13" model that is the top seller.

Apple doesn't break out sales figures by individual products, so any numbers would be third-party guesstimates.
 
B

blufire95

macrumors member
Jul 23, 2012
76
65
Germany
Maybe they will also say something about the desktop macs ;)
I think there's a good chance for a new Mac Mini and iMac tomorrow :p
 
I

iMikeT

macrumors 68020
Jul 8, 2006
2,304
1
California
chakdey said:
Low iPhone numbers, low imac and macbook number, high ipad numbers. I'm kind of worried about my shares. I been holding on to my shares for almost a year now. I would love for the stock to jump 7% or higher like it always does, but I would not be surprised if it does not. Delays in releasing new products and most people holding out for the new releases might hurt the numbers this quarter. We will find out in few hours.
Click to expand...


I share the sentiment. I'm just hoping that iPad sales are enough for the 7% jump, hell, I'll take 5%. I'm planning on making an exit this quarter after the dividend but I might be out of AAPL as soon as tomorrow regardless of earnings and dividends due to overall market conditions, I've been getting killed the last three days! :eek:
 
Reason077

Reason077

macrumors 68040
Aug 14, 2007
3,605
3,639
cvaldes said:
Plus the 15" notebook is not the top volume model anyhow. It's the 13" model that is the top seller.
Click to expand...

I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.
 
hobo.hopkins

hobo.hopkins

macrumors 6502a
Jul 30, 2008
569
6
Reason077 said:
I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.
Click to expand...

My experience has been the exact opposite. I see almost exclusively 13" MacBook Pros at University settings.
 
Small White Car

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,966
1,463
Washington DC
Reason077 said:
I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.
Click to expand...

I think the fact that Apple made the Air in 13" first (and exclusively that size for years) says a lot about which size laptops have been most popular for them both before and since the introduction of the Air.
 
LagunaSol

LagunaSol

macrumors 601
Apr 3, 2003
4,798
0
As Usuals

As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so.

As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

:(

Apple keeps reporting record quarter after record quarter, yet the stock treads water well below its high of $640 and sits at a laughably-low P/E of 14-ish where Amazon is at 187 ( :eek: ).
 
G

gowhitestripes

macrumors newbie
Jul 24, 2012
28
8
Well

I have MUCH MUCH more riding on this then 30 shares; so don't be too worried.

All you have to know is the trailing earnings will increase.

Be patient and wait. Don't expect huge overnight. It will come if the trailing earnings increase and the PE stays consistent. There will be swings; but they are really minor to the potential gains over the long-term.

(I've bought from $85 up)
 
E

esp211

macrumors newbie
Jul 6, 2012
20
0
cvaldes said:
Because technology media sites (MacRumors, AppleInsider, etc.) will post her lunatic babblings to generate pageviews.
Click to expand...

But her company loses credibility. I'd never invest with Morgan Stanley or even recommend them because they refuse to fire someone like her. Oh well.
 
Nungster

Nungster

macrumors regular
Oct 15, 2011
189
11
Regardless of how they did, the market is going to react more in part to their guidance for the next all important quarter.
 
madmin

madmin

macrumors 6502a
Jun 14, 2012
650
3,788
Roundup of Customer Expectations After Q3 2012 Earnings Call

New Mini
New iMac
New TB Display
 
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cvaldes

macrumors 68040
Dec 14, 2006
3,237
0
somewhere else
esp211 said:
But her company loses credibility. I'd never invest with Morgan Stanley or even recommend them because they refuse to fire someone like her. Oh well.
Click to expand...
Morgan Stanley probably has hundreds of analysts covering all sorts of industries. The track record of one specific individual is irrelevant (except to anyone listening to that person).

Huberty is very consistent in her ineptitude, so one can use her predictions, not as what Apple will do, but as what Apple will not do.

She definitely is not a star-rated analyst, although that never stops MacRumors/AppleInsider/other sites from quoting her. Like I said, her nonsensical reports generate pageviews.

----------
madmin said:
Roundup of Customer Expectations After Q3 2012 Earnings Call
New Mini
New iMac
New TB Display
Click to expand...
Apple generally announces new hardware products on Tuesdays, so it is unlikely that Apple will release these the day after an analyst conference call.

More likely would be the availability of OS X 10.8 Mountain Lion. Apple has already covered the features several times, including WWDC, so the arrival is a foregone conclusion. Apple released 10.7 Lion the day after their Q2FY2011 call, so it's a far more likely scenario.
 
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