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MacRumors
Jul 24, 2012, 01:08 PM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/24/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q3-2012-earnings-call/)


Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/24/all-eyes-on-apples-earnings-estimates-are-sharply-divided/) of analyst expectations ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 68 analysts: 34 "independent" and 34 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2012/07/NewImage23.png


As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $12.31 on revenue of $41.49 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $10.33 on $37.21 billion in revenue. This is a 12% difference on revenue and a 19% difference on EPS.

Apple will announce its earnings for the third fiscal quarter of 2012 (second calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Last quarter (http://www.macrumors.com/2012/04/24/apple-reports-results-for-q2-2012-11-6-billion-profit-on-39-2-billion-in-revenue/) the company earned $11.6 billion in profit on revenue of $39.2 billion. For the second fiscal quarter, Apple has issued guidance of $34 billion in revenue with profits of $8.68 per share. The company typically exceeds its guidance by a significant margin.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2012 Earnings Call (http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/24/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q3-2012-earnings-call/)



furi0usbee
Jul 24, 2012, 01:09 PM
About $3k of that if from me :) Good luck Apple!

Z400Racer37
Jul 24, 2012, 01:11 PM
hope they pull off something huge... i have 30 shares riding on this!

Reason077
Jul 24, 2012, 01:12 PM
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?

BrownManUPS
Jul 24, 2012, 01:12 PM
Hope to hear about the ML release tomorrow.

boronathan
Jul 24, 2012, 01:13 PM
Can't wait.. Make me some money aapl! :)

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 01:20 PM
I'm sticking to my guns (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?p=14770679&posted=1#post14770679).

$12.35 EPS on $40.1B revenue

LOL, ace (*cough cough*) ANAL-yst Huberty is lowballing this one, coming in at the bottom.

:p

Small White Car
Jul 24, 2012, 01:25 PM
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?

I don't think there was enough time for it to make up the difference. Pretty much every Mac was way overdue for an update at the start of the quarter. Mac sales will pick up through back-to-school shopping now and then holiday shopping after that. But for tonight I don't think you'll hear amazing Mac numbers. (Up from the previous year, I'm sure, but it won't blow us away.)

I think that the only really big news we'll hear tonight will be iPad related.

chakdey
Jul 24, 2012, 01:26 PM
Low iPhone numbers, low imac and macbook number, high ipad numbers. I'm kind of worried about my shares. I been holding on to my shares for almost a year now. I would love for the stock to jump 7% or higher like it always does, but I would not be surprised if it does not. Delays in releasing new products and most people holding out for the new releases might hurt the numbers this quarter. We will find out in few hours.

esp211
Jul 24, 2012, 01:26 PM
I'm sticking to my guns (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?p=14770679&posted=1#post14770679).

$12.35 EPS on $40.1B revenue

LOL, ace (*cough cough*) ANAL-yst Huberty is lowballing this one, coming in at the bottom.

:p

How does she still have a job?

iMikeT
Jul 24, 2012, 01:29 PM
Here's to hoping they kick ass today!

blufire95
Jul 24, 2012, 01:30 PM
Maybe they will also say something about the desktop macs ;)
I think there's a good chance for a new Mac Mini and iMac tomorrow :P

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 01:30 PM
Looks likely to be another blowout quarter from Apple.

The Mac numbers will be interesting, however. Will the Retina MacBook be enough to reverse the poor sales growth seen recently?
Unlikely, it was announced on the 11th of June and only shipped for a few weeks under constrained availability.

Plus the 15" notebook is not the top volume model anyhow. It's the 13" model that is the top seller.

Apple doesn't break out sales figures by individual products, so any numbers would be third-party guesstimates.

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 01:31 PM
LOL, ace (*cough cough*) ANAL-yst Huberty is lowballing this one, coming in at the bottom.
How does she still have a job?

Because technology media sites (MacRumors, AppleInsider, etc.) will post her lunatic babblings to generate pageviews.

iMikeT
Jul 24, 2012, 01:34 PM
Low iPhone numbers, low imac and macbook number, high ipad numbers. I'm kind of worried about my shares. I been holding on to my shares for almost a year now. I would love for the stock to jump 7% or higher like it always does, but I would not be surprised if it does not. Delays in releasing new products and most people holding out for the new releases might hurt the numbers this quarter. We will find out in few hours.


I share the sentiment. I'm just hoping that iPad sales are enough for the 7% jump, hell, I'll take 5%. I'm planning on making an exit this quarter after the dividend but I might be out of AAPL as soon as tomorrow regardless of earnings and dividends due to overall market conditions, I've been getting killed the last three days! :eek:

Reason077
Jul 24, 2012, 01:38 PM
Plus the 15" notebook is not the top volume model anyhow. It's the 13" model that is the top seller.


I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.

hobo.hopkins
Jul 24, 2012, 01:43 PM
I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.

My experience has been the exact opposite. I see almost exclusively 13" MacBook Pros at University settings.

Small White Car
Jul 24, 2012, 01:53 PM
I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.

I think the fact that Apple made the Air in 13" first (and exclusively that size for years) says a lot about which size laptops have been most popular for them both before and since the introduction of the Air.

LagunaSol
Jul 24, 2012, 02:02 PM
As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so.

As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

:(

Apple keeps reporting record quarter after record quarter, yet the stock treads water well below its high of $640 and sits at a laughably-low P/E of 14-ish where Amazon is at 187 ( :eek: ).

gowhitestripes
Jul 24, 2012, 02:09 PM
I have MUCH MUCH more riding on this then 30 shares; so don't be too worried.

All you have to know is the trailing earnings will increase.

Be patient and wait. Don't expect huge overnight. It will come if the trailing earnings increase and the PE stays consistent. There will be swings; but they are really minor to the potential gains over the long-term.

(I've bought from $85 up)

esp211
Jul 24, 2012, 02:11 PM
Because technology media sites (MacRumors, AppleInsider, etc.) will post her lunatic babblings to generate pageviews.

But her company loses credibility. I'd never invest with Morgan Stanley or even recommend them because they refuse to fire someone like her. Oh well.

Navdakilla
Jul 24, 2012, 02:12 PM
Hope to hear about the ML release tomorrow.

That's all I care about!

Nungster
Jul 24, 2012, 02:16 PM
Regardless of how they did, the market is going to react more in part to their guidance for the next all important quarter.

madmin
Jul 24, 2012, 02:31 PM
New Mini
New iMac
New TB Display

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 02:40 PM
But her company loses credibility. I'd never invest with Morgan Stanley or even recommend them because they refuse to fire someone like her. Oh well.
Morgan Stanley probably has hundreds of analysts covering all sorts of industries. The track record of one specific individual is irrelevant (except to anyone listening to that person).

Huberty is very consistent in her ineptitude, so one can use her predictions, not as what Apple will do, but as what Apple will not do.

She definitely is not a star-rated analyst, although that never stops MacRumors/AppleInsider/other sites from quoting her. Like I said, her nonsensical reports generate pageviews.

----------


Roundup of Customer Expectations After Q3 2012 Earnings Call
New Mini
New iMac
New TB Display
Apple generally announces new hardware products on Tuesdays, so it is unlikely that Apple will release these the day after an analyst conference call.

More likely would be the availability of OS X 10.8 Mountain Lion. Apple has already covered the features several times, including WWDC, so the arrival is a foregone conclusion. Apple released 10.7 Lion the day after their Q2FY2011 call, so it's a far more likely scenario.

shamino
Jul 24, 2012, 02:51 PM
As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so. As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.
I see this with a lot of successful tech companies.

The company claims that they will do well. The analysts say "no, you'll do much better than that" and announce something impossible to achieve. The hype from the analyst report inflates the price. Then the real numbers are reported, which are better than the company's prediction but less than the impossible analyst-prediction, and all the people who bought into the hype sell, making the price drop.

It looks surprisingly like a pump-and-dump scam, but it's really difficult to prove that if the analysts aren't in some way related to the company they're hyping.

pgiguere1
Jul 24, 2012, 02:57 PM
As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

Is this really what usually happens?

I remember it went down the time iPhone sales were below those of the same quarter the year before (mainly because of the delayed launch of the iPhone 4S compared to other iPhone launches). I don't remember the other times though.

rydewnd2
Jul 24, 2012, 03:05 PM
You don't get killed until you sell. If you can't tolerate market fluctuations you certainly shouldn't invest in individual securities. You might want to look at mutual funds or bonds for safer, more reliable (yet much lower yielding) investments.

I share the sentiment. I'm just hoping that iPad sales are enough for the 7% jump, hell, I'll take 5%. I'm planning on making an exit this quarter after the dividend but I might be out of AAPL as soon as tomorrow regardless of earnings and dividends due to overall market conditions, I've been getting killed the last three days! :eek:

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 03:06 PM
As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so.

As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

Investors are weenies.

:) :p :D

BC2009
Jul 24, 2012, 03:07 PM
As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so.

As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

:(

Apple keeps reporting record quarter after record quarter, yet the stock treads water well below its high of $640 and sits at a laughably-low P/E of 14-ish where Amazon is at 187 ( :eek: ).

If you recalculate P/E ratio as "forward P/E" based on this year's earnings then you have to expect a correction some time around fiscal Q1 2013 -- if not then the P/E ratio for AAPL will be around 10. So the price has to correct at some point. If you subtract cash-on-hand from stock price the P/E is even much lower. AAPL should be on an upwards revenue and profit trend for at least 18 more months if not 36 months as the markets they compete in grow in size (e.g.: more mobile phones become smartphones world-wide and more PC's become tablets). Only once the markets mature will we see a decline in margin in Apple's products and by then Apple will likely shift to new products in markets that are emerging.

Amazon's P/E is a joke and is probably a poor comparison. The boat has long sailed for anybody looking to invest in Amazon. Better comparison for Apple's P/E is against a company with similar product offerings like Microsoft. A healthy AAPL P/E ratio should be around 18 to 22 in my opinion. If it drops to 10 once they start calculating off 2012 earnings it could correct to double the price stock. Then if the price of the stock continues to track earnings at a healthy P/E ratio (considering cash-on-hand) it could be on an upward trend until it hits about $1500 to $1800 in the next 18 to 36 months. That's about as far in the future as I am willing to predict, but that is my guess.

This is why I am an AAPL investor (at least for the next 18 to 24 months or so).
Watching the day trader effect on day-to-day AAPL stock price will only drive you insane.

Reason077
Jul 24, 2012, 03:19 PM
As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so.

As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.


Apple is expected to exceed expectations. If they exceed expectations by less that the expected amount, that's when the stock price falls. If they exceed expectations by more than expected, the stock could rise exceptionally.

----------


Amazon's P/E is a joke and is probably a poor comparison. The boat has long sailed for anybody looking to invest in Amazon.

Not sure I agree with this. I'd buy AMZN on a dip.

Amazon's earnings are depressed because they are pouring so much money back into R&D. On the technology side, they really are one of the best companies in the business. Things like Kindle and AWS are market leaders and growing fast.

Obviously their margins are never going to compare to Apple's, but their stock commands a higher P/E because of the growth potential. Amazon's in a position where it'll be fairly easy for them to double/triple/10X their profits in a few years. Not so easy for Apple to do that.

Michael Scrip
Jul 24, 2012, 03:21 PM
I find it pretty hard to believe that the 13" MBP is the top volume model. You almost never see them, where as a lot of people have the 15". The 13" Air, on the other hand, is extremely popular.

Damn... where do you live that you see so many $1800 laptops?

iMikeT
Jul 24, 2012, 03:27 PM
You don't get killed until you sell. If you can't tolerate market fluctuations you certainly shouldn't invest in individual securities. You might want to look at mutual funds or bonds for safer, more reliable (yet much lower yielding) investments.


I'm not a traditional investor. I consider myself somewhere between a day trader and a very short-term investor.

drewisanapple
Jul 24, 2012, 03:27 PM
Damn... where do you live that you see so many $1800 laptops?

I see more 15" out there right now, during college season it's 13" pro models. But in my city creation is done with 15" models.

Michael Scrip
Jul 24, 2012, 03:29 PM
Not sure I agree with this. I'd buy AMZN on a dip.

Amazon's earnings are depressed because they are pouring so much money back into R&D. On the technology side, they really are one of the best companies in the business. Things like Kindle and AWS are market leaders and growing fast.

Obviously their margins are never going to compare to Apple's, but their stock commands a higher P/E because of the growth potential. Amazon's in a position where it'll be fairly easy for them to double/triple/10X their profits in a few years. Not so easy for Apple to do that.

I dunno... would you invest in Amazon if they can't even tell how many of their products they sell? Isn't that kind of an important metric?

For years... Amazon was a seller of other people's stuff. But recently they started selling their own hardware with the Kindle.

But I don't think they're even confident about that... since they won't ever talk about Kindle numbers.

Do you just trust them?

Then again... Samsung stopped reporting numbers too... and they're doing just fine.

iMikeT
Jul 24, 2012, 03:30 PM
AAPL missed and is down. Currently trading ~575 aftermarket.

Correction: ~565 aftermarket.

hcho3
Jul 24, 2012, 03:35 PM
Analysts need to drink some cool aid and wake up...

37 billion dollars in revenue? You crazy?

Apple made 35 billion in revenue and sold 26 million iphones. Stop with this madness numbers. Apple is doing fine.

Reason077
Jul 24, 2012, 03:37 PM
Ouch.

Like I said earlier, Apple is expected to exceed expectations. If expectations are not exceeded, a drop can be expected.

Dmunjal
Jul 24, 2012, 03:38 PM
28% growth YoY on iPhones is not that great compared to the numbers they were putting up before. Maybe just a lull before the iPhone 5.

cvaldes
Jul 24, 2012, 03:39 PM
LOL, hell just froze over, Huberty is the closest analyst.

:p

Reason077
Jul 24, 2012, 03:40 PM
28% growth YoY on iPhones is not that great compared to the numbers they were putting up before. Maybe just a lull before the iPhone 5.

Yeah. People delaying upgrades for the iPhone 5, but also competition from Android starting to bite.

iPad sales look pretty strong though.

Badandy
Jul 24, 2012, 03:41 PM
Apple missed big. Independent analysts were way off on this one.

Dave00
Jul 24, 2012, 03:42 PM
Yikes, big drop. Another earnings miss. I think what's being missed by analysts is that AAPL earnings are becoming more cyclical, as consumers become more savvy as to when the new iProduct comes out. It will continue to be weak next quarter as we await the iPhone 5 - then they'll blow it out of the box again in the holiday quarter. Just wish I'd sold some ahead of time to buy it back now. Important thing to look at is year-over-year, not sequential - iPhones up 28%, iPads up 84%. Eventually, they'll have to return to a normal multiple of the P:E. Right now, it's priced as if the market expects sales to actually decrease - and significantly - the next 12 months. That doesn't seem likely.

iMikeT
Jul 24, 2012, 03:45 PM
Yikes, big drop. Another earnings miss. I think what's being missed by analysts is that AAPL earnings are becoming more cyclical, as consumers become more savvy as to when the new iProduct comes out. It will continue to be weak next quarter as we await the iPhone 5 - then they'll blow it out of the box again in the holiday quarter. Just wish I'd sold some ahead of time to buy it back now. Important thing to look at is year-over-year, not sequential - iPhones up 28%, iPads up 84%. Eventually, they'll have to return to a normal multiple of the P:E. Right now, it's priced as if the market expects sales to actually decrease - and significantly - the next 12 months. That doesn't seem likely.


Agreed.

LagunaSol
Jul 24, 2012, 04:05 PM
Watching the day trader effect on day-to-day AAPL stock price will only drive you insane.

Amen. I've been long on AAPL since 2001 (wish I had bought more, of course) and have finally settled into not stressing out about the daily ebb and flow (which this stock has in spades, more than any other stock I've seen), but one can't help but watch the big drops and feel anxiety, even though I have no intention to sell for years.

pubwvj
Jul 24, 2012, 04:56 PM
This will be considered a big "miss" for Apple

Only to fools. Microsoft loses money. Apple has 8.8 BILLION dollars in PROFITS. No other computer business is doing well in this weak economy yet Apple is raking in the profits. That's good news. Only a fool would think otherwise.

----------

As usual, Apple will exceed expectations. Maybe dramatically so. As usual, the stock price will fall anyway.

The stock market is pretty silly. If you really want to make money then buy yourself a Mac and create things or do services with it. Your return will be orders of magnitude better than if you buy stocks.

My stock is out grazing my other asset.

I sell pork bellies. For real.

mr0c
Jul 24, 2012, 05:02 PM
LOL, ace (*cough cough*) ANAL-yst Huberty is lowballing this one, coming in at the bottom.
:p

As Colbert would say, it looks like Huberty "NAILED IT":
35.08 vs 35.0
9.45 vs 9.32

Closer than any of the other clowns ... ;)

techwhiz
Jul 24, 2012, 05:20 PM
Apple gave a reasonable estimate of revenue and sales.
They said they would not make as much money this quarter as they did the last. They said $34 Billion and they beat that number by $1 Billion. Analysts seemed to think they know more about Apple than Apple does. They had numbers as high as $42 Billion.

What a bunch of tools...............