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View Full Version : The shine fades off Apple. Buyers are cheap.




Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 12:27 AM
Earnings call went as I expected from Apple. iPhone sales lag and iPad sales exceed expectations. I'm sure we'll get a positive spin on this news though.

That said, Apple stocks plunge in after hour trading by 32 dollars a share or roughly 5% . This is only the second time in 10 years for this to happen. Why? People are not buying new iPhones in anticipation of the next iPhone? If that is the case, they are doing so 6 months out from an expected release date. Or are they tired of seeing the same design year after year?

And according to the CFO, people are buying more of the discounted and cheap versions of the iPhone and ipad. More ipad 2's were sold than ipad 3's. What's this? I thought only Android buyers were cheap? :D

People are waking up and realizing Apple isn't innovating in the mobile market anymore. The iPhone is getting stale with what is essentially the same phone for 3 years ina row. The new iPad looks just like the old. Instead Apple has turned to suing the only other profitable company in the business and doing everything in their power to stop their rise to the top. I really believe that Jobs passing is putting Apple into a steady decline.



quasinormal
Jul 25, 2012, 12:30 AM
Is the market Rational? (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/12/09/333473/index.htm)

Spink10
Jul 25, 2012, 12:31 AM
or - those with low income can finally get on the apple bandwagon - by purchasing the "old items"

nuckinfutz
Jul 25, 2012, 12:35 AM
26 million phones sold last quarter. The iPhone was still the #1 phone for ATT and Verizon despite the top phone being 8 months old.

Android is getting sued into oblivion.

The numbers went up for every product category.

Apple is KILLING (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/24/apples_ios_takes_dramatic_lead_over_android_in_enterprise_apps.html) android with the iPhone in the Enterprise

Yeah ...you continue to believe you actually have a chance. Hope springs eternal

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I really believe that Jobs passing is putting Apple into a steady decline.

Yet the numbers say the opposite which shows your "beliefs" are abstracted from reality.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 12:46 AM
26 million phones sold last quarter. The iPhone was still the #1 phone for ATT and Verizon despite the top phone being 8 months old.

Android is getting sued into oblivion.

The numbers went up for every product category.

Apple is KILLING (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/24/apples_ios_takes_dramatic_lead_over_android_in_enterprise_apps.html) android with the iPhone in the Enterprise

Yeah ...you continue to believe you actually have a chance. Hope springs eternal

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Yet the numbers say the opposite which shows your "beliefs" are abstracted from reality.
Here's that positive spin I was referring to.

All we have to do is look at iPhone sales from the previous quarter and this quarter. Not sure how selling less equals numbers up in every category' in your world? Asfor att and Verizon, well, the S3 only got a few days of sales in for the quarter and Verizon didn't get any. Let's see how things look this quarter.

Android is getting sued into oblivion? Seems to be just fine on my phone. Seems to be just fine on the Nexus 7. The day of reckoning is coming for Apple. They know it's coming as well. Google has two huge patents waiting for approval from the uspto. Guess which two those are. Give you a hint. Apple blantantly and foolishly copied these for iOS. Of course, I think all this suing over patents that should never have been approved in the first place, is bad for every consumer. I hope congress is successful in getting rid of our current patent system for software code .

nuckinfutz
Jul 25, 2012, 12:50 AM
I really want to think Android has a chance because of the positive pressure it puts on Apple to keep improving the iPhone and iPad.

I'm just less than thrilled about Google's stewardship of the platform. They should be highlighting their developers and squashing this nonsense about Android apps being free.

Without developers the platform can go nowhere.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 01:16 AM
I really want to think Android has a chance because of the positive pressure it puts on Apple to keep improving the iPhone and iPad.

I'm just less than thrilled about Google's stewardship of the platform. They should be highlighting their developers and squashing this nonsense about Android apps being free.

Without developers the platform can go nowhere.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. While Google does have the main popular apps, some of the really good quality apps remain strictly with iOS. I hate this and I wish Google would take a more proactive, anti piracy stance with Google Play. I only buy my apps from there and I am probably one of the few that pays for everything. I want the devs to keep making products forAndroid.

ChazUK
Jul 25, 2012, 08:37 AM
Google have taken some good steps combating piracy with Jellybean and App encryption on a per device basis.

http://developer.android.com/about/versions/jelly-bean.html

App Encryption

Starting with Android 4.1, Google Play will help protect application assets by encrypting all paid apps with a device-specific key before they are delivered and stored on a device.

The biggest problem this entails is the fact that hardware manufacturers will insist on pumping shoddy Gingerbread or ICS based phones or they'll deny current phones updates for no discrenable reasons (http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/htc-desire-hd-ice-cream-sandwich-update-officially-cancelled-50008693/). (Yes I know that is an ICS update but the HTC One V has extremely similar specs and ICS. Dropping the DHD is disgusting!).

What's a developer to do? Put out paid apps that work on 4.1.1 and above for the best anti piracy protection but bugger all marketshare or support older phones and have a higher user base but little to no protection?

The ad-supported and freemium models are probably the safer bets on Android but I prefer ad free, paid apps (which is why I actually bought Dead Trigger on launch - thanks pirates!).

People really need to send a message to OEMS that dropping support for the myriad of devices they pump out is unacceptable (and whilst the dev community manage to do a great job at keeping older devices fresh, they shouldn't ever be used to give an Android OEM a pass at not updating capable hardware).

All the while I use Android I doubt there will ever be without at least one Nexus device.

batting1000
Jul 25, 2012, 09:46 AM
OP: This happens every year. iPhone sales slow down before the next iPhone is rumored to be released.

Tarzanman
Jul 25, 2012, 10:06 AM
OP: This happens every year. iPhone sales slow down before the next iPhone is rumored to be released.

A 5% stock tumble is something to be concerned about.

Yes, it is true that Apple was riding high(er than they should) and that the price had to come down eventually... but what investors want to hear are the plans that the corporate brass have laid for bringing the company back to similar heights in the near future.

I think that Mac.World's concern is that no such concrete plans seem to have been revealed. If so, short term investors will have to decide whether to consider selling shares in the short term.

Dunbar
Jul 25, 2012, 10:49 AM
I recently defected to the S3 but I still think Apple will do well for the foreseeable future. Wall Street just had some unrealistic earnings expectations. The Iphone is half of their revenue and the refresh cycle doesn't align with Wall Street's desire for steady quarterly revenue growth. Next quarter is likely to be worse since the Iphone 5 won't be released until the 4th quarter. If the stock price drops enough I may have to buy some since there is no doubt in my mind that Apple will sell a ton of Iphone 5 's.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 11:04 AM
OP: This happens every year. iPhone sales slow down before the next iPhone is rumored to be released.

The quarter proceeding a new release, yes.
2 quarters before a new release? No!

And Apple is still taking a hit in morning trading. I forgot Lion was being released today, so that seems to have stemmed the flow a bit.

Technarchy
Jul 25, 2012, 11:06 AM
- 26 million iPhones. 20.3 million last year. 28% YoY growth.
- 17 million iPads versus 9.2 million last year, up 84%.
- Sold 4 million Macs. This represents 2% growth year over year, higher than 1% contraction of global PC market.
- Apple posted revenue of $35.0 billion and net quarterly profit of $8.8 billion

Yeah, Apple is in terrible shape...

batting1000
Jul 25, 2012, 11:19 AM
2 quarters before a new release? No!

What are you talking about? Those were Q3 earnings and the next iPhone is coming Q4.

brentsg
Jul 25, 2012, 11:22 AM
This was a miss by the idiots on Wall Street, not Apple, imo.

Scrub175
Jul 25, 2012, 11:34 AM
Android is getting sued into oblivion? Seems to be just fine on my phone.

Starts a flame bait thread about how Apple isn't looking so hot... Those two quoted sentences say it all.

Blah blah blah

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 12:07 PM
What are you talking about? Those were Q3 earnings and the next iPhone is coming Q4.

Really? You are assuming it will be released in the final days of Sept? I still think it will be released in Oct, or Q1 of 2013.

Technarchy
Jul 25, 2012, 12:13 PM
This was a miss by the idiots on Wall Street, not Apple, imo.

Analyst stupidity.

Apple is just fine.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 12:24 PM
- 26 million iPhones. 20.3 million last year. 28% YoY growth.
- 17 million iPads versus 9.2 million last year, up 84%.
- Sold 4 million Macs. This represents 2% growth year over year, higher than 1% contraction of global PC market.
- Apple posted revenue of $35.0 billion and net quarterly profit of $8.8 billion

Yeah, Apple is in terrible shape...

I never said Apple was in terrible shape, nor do I disagree with any thing you posted here. This is a positive spin on iPhone sales, which is comparing sales data from this time last year while ignoring the fact that the number is significantly lower than the previous quarter.

2012 Q1 iPhone sales - 37 million
2012 Q2 iPhone sales - 35 million
2012 Q3 iPhone sales - 26 million
2012 Q4 iPhone sales - ?

Additionally, Verizon reported a 16% quarter-over-quarter drop in iPhone sales and AT&T's numbers reveal a similar 14% decline. However, iPhone sales still account for more than half of smartphone sales at both companies.

And as I said earlier, with Jobs passing I think we will see a slow, steady decline in products from Apple. It will start small, like lack of attention to detail on simple things like a font for a program. Jobs was Apple.

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Starts a flame bait thread about how Apple isn't looking so hot... Those two quoted sentences say it all.

Blah blah blah

This isn't intended to be flame bait, just to produce a discussion on my opinion. I don't see anyone getting hostile towards anyone else. Additionally, this was posted in the alternative forum. If you don't like the thread and do not wish to participate, then please don't click on this thread. Thank you.

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Analyst stupidity.

Apple is just fine.

Agree. Most analysts pull numbers out of their butt, but unfortunately they can also manipulate the stocks with their garbage projections. That was part of the reason for the massive drop in Apples stock we have been seeing. The other reason was I don't think anyone anticipated such a huge drop in iPhone sales from Q1 to Q3.

batting1000
Jul 25, 2012, 12:31 PM
Really? You are assuming it will be released in the final days of Sept? I still think it will be released in Oct, or Q1 of 2013.

My fault. I misunderstood the quarters. But either way, yes, I do believe that two quarters before the new iPhone comes out there will always be a drop in iPhones sold because people aren't going to buy the current model when they know a new one is coming soon. People on this forum even advise others to wait months on buying an iPhone because the new one will be out at the end of the year.

Apple will still sell tons of iPhones either way so I'm not really sure what your point is. They sold 37 million iPhones Q1 this year,the first quarter after the iPhone 4S release. With the anticipation of the iPhone 5, I can see them selling 40 - 50 million.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 12:41 PM
Apple will still sell tons of iPhones either way so I'm not really sure what your point is. They sold 37 million iPhones Q1 this year,the first quarter after the iPhone 4S release. With the anticipation of the iPhone 5, I can see them selling 40 - 50 million.

This is what I am waiting to see. How well will the iPhone 5 sell in that 1st and 2nd quarter after release. If it is under 40 million, they are in trouble. If it is under 30 million, the situation is dire. The iPhone is like half of Apple's revenue! By the way, I will be donating to the Apple fund by pre-orderng the new iPhone, off-contract and hopefully unlocked.

Technarchy
Jul 25, 2012, 12:52 PM
This is a positive spin on iPhone sales, which is comparing sales data from this time last year while ignoring the fact that the number is significantly lower than the previous quarter.



You're kidding right? Take a second and think about why you are wrong, and why it is not "spin".

dontwalkhand
Jul 25, 2012, 01:01 PM
I don't see how this is relevant at all, iPhones are the same price as Android phones when it comes to on contract pricing. People out there with Android phones are doing so out of personal preference, plans etc. are going to be the exact same with your carrier no matter what phone you choose anyway.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 01:08 PM
You're kidding right? Take a second and think about why you are wrong, and why it is not "spin".

So by only discussing a comparison of the recent quarter to the same quarter last year, but completely ignoring a drop in sales of around 30% this fiscal year, wouldn't be considered positive spin?
What would you call it?

ChazUK
Jul 25, 2012, 01:12 PM
The one thing that bugs me is the way Apple don't break down sales of each model (3GS, 4, 4S).

Samsung could do themselves a favour and copy apple :p by listing all "galaxy" phones sold (Ace II, Galaxy S II, Galaxy S III, Galaxy Advance, Galaxy Note, Galaxy Mini, Galaxy Y, Galaxy Nexus e.t.c) as "Galaxy sales" for phenomenal numbers quarter after quarter.

Mac.World
Jul 25, 2012, 01:30 PM
The one thing that bugs me is the way Apple don't break down sales of each model (3GS, 4, 4S).

Samsung could do themselves a favour and copy apple :p by listing all "galaxy" phones sold (Ace II, Galaxy S II, Galaxy S III, Galaxy Advance, Galaxy Note, Galaxy Mini, Galaxy Y, Galaxy Nexus e.t.c) as "Galaxy sales" for phenomenal numbers quarter after quarter.

Very true! But that would actually require Samsung to produce official numbers at quarterly earnings reports.

ChazUK
Jul 25, 2012, 01:34 PM
Very true! But that would actually require Samsung to produce official numbers at quarterly earnings reports.

I do wonder at their lack of disclosure on (shipped) sales figures but it's their prerogative I guess. It does make you wonder about all these analyst numbers thrown around when it comes to marketshare and sales predictions.

On a personal level, I couldn't care less who sells more or less of whatever product, as long as what I buy fits my needs I'm fine with it all.

batting1000
Jul 25, 2012, 01:49 PM
The one thing that bugs me is the way Apple don't break down sales of each model (3GS, 4, 4S).

Samsung could do themselves a favour and copy apple :p by listing all "galaxy" phones sold (Ace II, Galaxy S II, Galaxy S III, Galaxy Advance, Galaxy Note, Galaxy Mini, Galaxy Y, Galaxy Nexus e.t.c) as "Galaxy sales" for phenomenal numbers quarter after quarter.

Their earnings calls would take forever reading off all the names of the phones and their doleful sales numbers. Is it any wonder why they only release Galaxy S sales numbers?

Technarchy
Jul 25, 2012, 01:51 PM
So by only discussing a comparison of the recent quarter to the same quarter last year, but completely ignoring a drop in sales of around 30% this fiscal year, wouldn't be considered positive spin?
What would you call it?

Keep thinking about it.

You know the answer, you just have to admit why you are initially wrong in your thinking.

ChazUK
Jul 25, 2012, 01:58 PM
Their earnings calls would take forever reading off all the names of the phones and their doleful sales numbers. Is it any wonder why they only release Galaxy S sales numbers?

Are you thinking it goes something like this?

Galaxy Ace, we sold 5 of them.
Galaxy Y, 9 sold, 4 returned.
Galaxy S III, 10,000,000
Galaxy Mini, 3 sold on eBay for a knockdown price...
:p