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View Full Version : Can the Market support 3 OS's (IOS, Android and Win 8)




vcoleiro1
Oct 31, 2012, 06:38 AM
As per the title, can the market support 3 OS's , particularly the tablet market.

First there was IOS, then Android , now we have Win 8 + RT.

Personally I cant imagine all three environment surviving with healthy user bases in the next 10 years . One or 2 will win out IMO. Begs the question which will prevail. and which won't

Will the the market share of IOS dwindle to become like OSX ie a minority OS in the Tablet market - Will it become a monopoly. Will Android or Win 8 become dominant or fail.

What do you think?



maflynn
Oct 31, 2012, 06:41 AM
Will the the market share of IOS dwindle to become like OSX ie a minority OS in the Tablet market - Will it become a monopoly. Will Android or Win 8 become dominant or fail.


The major difference between iOS and Android/Windows is that with iOS you have one manufacturer producing devices. With both Android and Windows platforms you have a multitude of manufacturers creating a wide variety of devices. iOS will diminish as the competition will provide more options, there's basically less choices with iOS over windows and android.

VulchR
Oct 31, 2012, 06:48 AM
OP forgot RIM. ;)

vcoleiro1
Oct 31, 2012, 06:52 AM
The major difference between iOS and Android/Windows is that with iOS you have one manufacturer producing devices. With both Android and Windows platforms you have a multitude of manufacturers creating a wide variety of devices. iOS will diminish as the competition will provide more options, there's basically less choices with iOS over windows and android.

I agree with what you have said, it is exactly what I was thinking could possibly happen.

You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS. They would lose HW sales revenue but gain revenue on IOS license sales. Crazy I know, but food for thought.

GroundLoop
Oct 31, 2012, 06:52 AM
OP forgot RIM. ;)

I think that the world has forgotten about RIM. ;)

GL

zbarvian
Oct 31, 2012, 06:52 AM
OP forgot RIM. ;)

4 definitely can't. 3 is questionable, but I'm also inclined to say no. I don't think there's much room for more than iOS and Android currently.

GroundLoop
Oct 31, 2012, 06:53 AM
I agree with what you have said, it is exactly what I was thinking could possibly happen.

You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS. They would lose HW sales revenue but gain revenue on IOS license sales. Crazy I know, but food for thought.

That will never happen as over 50% of Apple's revenue is from iPhone Hardware sales. And that is if you are only considering licensing it out for phones. If you include iPad and iPod, that IOS plays a role in over 75% of Apple's revenue. It would be the worst business move imaginable.

GL

maflynn
Oct 31, 2012, 07:32 AM
You almost think Apple should , wait for it, License out IOS.
Apple's goal for their software is to lead to hardware sales. With the licensing of iOS they lose out on the hardware aspect.

They learned this lesson the hardware by licensing out Mac OS and being undercut by clone makers. Sales of apple hardware shrank and it took the return of Jobs to turn things around.

The Face
Oct 31, 2012, 09:00 AM
For iOS and Android, yes. For Windows mobile, no. iOS and Android both bring their own unique features to the table and are completely dominating the market,, Windows brings nothing but a hideous lackluster operating system and a few wannabe iOS and Android features.

I can see Windows mobile going to same way as Zune did. It tried to be different, but failed miserably when people realised there were superior alternatives.

danish.
Oct 31, 2012, 09:19 AM
Tricky one. I'm inclined to say no, and that only two OS can survive - but I'm not sure which will go.

Software-wise, once users start to feel familiar with windows 8 on their PCs, that will be a sensible direction to go for them. It's not as much of a walled garden as iOS (at least not the non-RT version, and let's wait a while before we pass judgement even on the RT-version). For most consumers who want functionality, familiarity, ease of use and don't care about the tech-side of things, Windows and iOS are more logical choices than android.

Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.

In the end, as long as Apple produce beautiful hardware and iOS as it was (i.e. stop releasing versions of iOS that have major bugs, or features that are not ready yet - here's looking at Siri and Maps), iOS will survive, and similar hardware choices for Windows and Android would mean the familiarity of Windows would likely clinch it for Microsoft.

mattopotamus
Oct 31, 2012, 09:35 AM
Tricky one. I'm inclined to say no, and that only two OS can survive - but I'm not sure which will go.

Software-wise, once users start to feel familiar with windows 8 on their PCs, that will be a sensible direction to go for them. It's not as much of a walled garden as iOS (at least not the non-RT version, and let's wait a while before we pass judgement even on the RT-version). For most consumers who want functionality, familiarity, ease of use and don't care about the tech-side of things, Windows and iOS are more logical choices than android.

Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.

In the end, as long as Apple produce beautiful hardware and iOS as it was (i.e. stop releasing versions of iOS that have major bugs, or features that are not ready yet - here's looking at Siri and Maps), iOS will survive, and similar hardware choices for Windows and Android would mean the familiarity of Windows would likely clinch it for Microsoft.

really good post. I think all 3 will survive, but if only 2 were to make it, it would have to be IOS and windows like you said. They both have so many ties to other products. You are right, the android market is very fragmented and it mostly has to do with so many OS's floating around. Also, windows has the PC world and apple has the MAC world....two things that are stable and not going anywhere.

The Face
Oct 31, 2012, 09:44 AM
Factoring in hardware, iOS has an advantage, at least for now. Android is suffering from fragmentation on the hardware-front in my eyes, and Windows will as well. But the value of familiarity could give Windows the upper hand in that battle.
.Android isn't suffering from fragmentation, in fact quite the opposite. The more devices Android starts running on, the bigger and better it will get. It's open source, so anyone manufacturer who uses it as their OS on their devices can tweak it and optimize it to suit their needs.

You see Android devices everywhere, whether it be on cheap handsets or be it on the flagship premium handsets by the top manufacturers. Heck it's even used in cars, on TV's, sat navs, phones, tablets etc.

Android is growing more and more everyday, it's suffering from nothing and is currently dominating the mobile market by a long shot.

If any OS is in trouble, it's windows mobile.

flameproof
Oct 31, 2012, 09:46 AM
Sure it can! Just look at the PC market, there are probably 100 different OS out there. Most supermarket have also more then 2 types of fruits and it works for them.

danish.
Oct 31, 2012, 10:13 AM
Android isn't suffering from fragmentation, in fact quite the opposite. The more devices Android starts running on, the bigger and better it will get.

That's a fair point, and I didn't mean that they were suffering as in it is hurting the OS per se. What I meant was that Android is available on a very wide number of devices, some of which function better than others, and that this is the case for Windows too. For that reason, Android and Windows can both benefit from really good, flag-ship hardware, but are likewise open to being hurt by second-rate hardware in way that Apple is not. So Apple has a hardware advantage, and the decider between Android and Windows is likely to be familiarity, and for the average user this is likely to point them towards Windows.

mattopotamus
Oct 31, 2012, 10:24 AM
Sure it can! Just look at the PC market, there are probably 100 different OS out there. Most supermarket have also more then 2 types of fruits and it works for them.

What are you talking about....a PC either runs windows or linux...and very few people have anything lower than XP.

maccompatible
Oct 31, 2012, 11:42 AM
What are you talking about....a PC either runs windows or linux...and very few people have anything lower than XP.

XP, Vista, 7, 8, and Ubuntu are probably the only PC OSs that average people are capable of/comfortable using.

mattopotamus
Oct 31, 2012, 11:59 AM
XP, Vista, 7, 8, and Ubuntu are probably the only PC OSs that average people are capable of/comfortable using.

yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

Menneisyys2
Oct 31, 2012, 01:48 PM
yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

... if you count in all official versions of MS-DOS, PC-DOS still in use in, say, hospitals (legacy DOS apps). But definitely not on home computers. Not even with the major Linux distros / versions.

Rigby
Oct 31, 2012, 01:51 PM
I think there is room for 3. Apple will continue doing its thing (i.e. a tightly integrated hardware/software/services ecosystem), and the other handset vendors welcome Windows 8 because they don't like to be completely dependent on Google. We'll see how the market shares develop, but one thing is certain: the competition is good for us as consumers. :)

vcoleiro1
Oct 31, 2012, 06:08 PM
In a lot of ways, the Tablet market is like the PC market was at its infancy .
In the end, the OS which will be adopted by the most manufacturers and also developers will succeed. Its like the PC race all over again.

You cant help but think the big money maker out of all of this will be the company that ends up making the leading/dominant OS. As HW sales will fraqment to a zillion manufacturers as it did with the PC market. The only real big winner will be the OS provider. ie like it was Microsoft in the world of PC's.

Rodimus Prime
Oct 31, 2012, 06:26 PM
I am going to say yes it can. Rim I see being knocked out completely and WP coming up. Long term I see iOS being in 3rd place. Apple honestly runs the greatest risk of becoming the next Palm or RIM simply because so much of their business now completely depends on iOS.

onthecouchagain
Oct 31, 2012, 07:33 PM
Seriously, what is taking RIM so long to release BB10?

The Face
Oct 31, 2012, 07:48 PM
It wouldn't surprise me if they went bust.

ReanimationN
Oct 31, 2012, 08:02 PM
It probably can, although WP8 will, unfortunately, probably run a distant third.

I can see Windows 8 tablets carving out a sizeable chunk of the tablet market in the next few years, especially as people get tempted to just get a W8 tablet to do double duty as their PC and tablet.

flameproof
Oct 31, 2012, 11:09 PM
yeah, the person i quoted said over 100..

I am just guessing. Point is, there are more then 3 OS in the PC market. I alone have to deal with Xp, Win 7, soon Win 8, Win NT, Win 2000, Ubuntu (2 different distributions), Cent O/S, sometimes some other Linux family members.

In the smartphone world there is also Bada, Symbian, WebOS, S40, Meego, and soon probably Aliyun. All have some market share.

LIVEFRMNYC
Oct 31, 2012, 11:21 PM
In the smartphone world there is also Bada, Symbian, WebOS, S40, Meego, and soon probably Aliyun. All have some market share.

Maybe like 1.5% with Symbian making up 1%.

Beeplance
Oct 31, 2012, 11:41 PM
Yeah, haven't heard any news from RIM in a while, not sure what they're up to.

My guess would be Windows and iOS, both are quite strong as of now. I could be wrong about Android going downhill, just my prediction I guess. Even if they do go down, it probably take some time, my 5-10 years? The new Nexus 4 is looking pretty good, Android tablets too.

roxxette
Nov 1, 2012, 01:18 AM
Im surprise you say ios will remain potent if only 2 remain :) i honestly dont see a big future for it, even more when the prices just go up and up and whe get more of the same.

I see big talks in here about "ecosystem" yet most people i know here with iphones only roll with free apps or jailbreak even for apps like whatsapp lol

jmxp69
Nov 1, 2012, 04:17 AM
Interesting comments so far. Going back to Palm's days as one of the early leaders in handhelds and observing trends over the years:

- I think RIM is done, it's just a question of when. They used to be the go-to choice for business and I rarely see them in the office anymore (Fortune 15 company).

- Even with MS missteps in mobile and my own complete lack of respect for anything MS post Vista, they'll be around for a long time to come. Their successful product lines can subsidize mobile while they carve out a piece of the pie. If they don't streamline their mobile OS (time to let go of the desktop influence on mobile devices) this might be a long and expensive proposition.

- Android: Google is a crazy strong innovator. Even with disparity in equipment, carrier/handset manufacturer impacts to new release distribution, and branch efforts like Kindle Fire, Android has similar strategic intents: Google Play provides consolidation of media and apps, and Android converged on the idea of use across small (phone) screens as well as tablets. And the power of the open source community puts *all* sole-sourced development shops at a massive disadvantage. Android will benefit from the collective capabilities of thousands and thousands of talented coders for a long time.

- iOS: I believe Apple's cross platform strategy integrating elements of mobile and desktop (iMessage, iCloud, Photostream) will only become more compelling over time and that strategy keeps Apple in the top 2 for the foreseeable future.

In the end, Android will remain the global dominant choice, Apple will remain a strong number two with the cross platform integration play, MS will remain a distant third if WP8 doesn't blow people away and RIM: Sorry, but they're toast. It was fun while it lasted, but the world moved past them just like it did with Palm.

opinioncircle
Nov 1, 2012, 10:08 AM
As much as it seems to please everyone, I do hope that there are/will be more than 3 OS's....

I want other choices, starting with BB10. For anyone and everyone else, look at beyond the US and Europe. The trends are not necessarily in the Bay Area, NYC and London...

thejadedmonkey
Nov 1, 2012, 10:11 AM
Well it did, back when the market was much smaller, so I can't imagine why not.

Beeplance
Nov 1, 2012, 10:58 AM
Interesting comments so far. Going back to Palm's days as one of the early leaders in handhelds and observing trends over the years:

- I think RIM is done, it's just a question of when. They used to be the go-to choice for business and I rarely see them in the office anymore (Fortune 15 company).

- Even with MS missteps in mobile and my own complete lack of respect for anything MS post Vista, they'll be around for a long time to come. Their successful product lines can subsidize mobile while they carve out a piece of the pie. If they don't streamline their mobile OS (time to let go of the desktop influence on mobile devices) this might be a long and expensive proposition.

- Android: Google is a crazy strong innovator. Even with disparity in equipment, carrier/handset manufacturer impacts to new release distribution, and branch efforts like Kindle Fire, Android has similar strategic intents: Google Play provides consolidation of media and apps, and Android converged on the idea of use across small (phone) screens as well as tablets. And the power of the open source community puts *all* sole-sourced development shops at a massive disadvantage. Android will benefit from the collective capabilities of thousands and thousands of talented coders for a long time.

- iOS: I believe Apple's cross platform strategy integrating elements of mobile and desktop (iMessage, iCloud, Photostream) will only become more compelling over time and that strategy keeps Apple in the top 2 for the foreseeable future.

In the end, Android will remain the global dominant choice, Apple will remain a strong number two with the cross platform integration play, MS will remain a distant third if WP8 doesn't blow people away and RIM: Sorry, but they're toast. It was fun while it lasted, but the world moved past them just like it did with Palm.

Excellent post, your mini-essay makes you sound like a veteran market observer. :)

jmxp69
Nov 1, 2012, 01:02 PM
Excellent post, your mini-essay makes you sound like a veteran market observer. :)

I've made my career in technology and I definitely love my toys. I have a large family, so I have to make technology decisions carefully because guess who gets to fix things when they break? :cool: I used to build my own computers and do the LAN parties, but now I just want my computing platform to be a toaster. I've lost the desire to read 15 articles on thermal paste to eek out another 100mhz.

nuckinfutz
Nov 1, 2012, 01:09 PM
Depends on the Carriers really.

Now that Microsoft is back with a credible platform they're going to leverage

A. The Windows, Exchange and Office hegemony
B. Immense marketing budget (MSFT knows they cannot fail here)
C. Growing retail presence.

Android is largely a carrier driven success. When the carriers saw that Microsoft wasn't ready, RIM was dying on the vine and Palm was rotting the only thing they could counter AT&T and Apple with was Android.

They could just as easily start steering customers into W8 phones. Most of the people I know with Android phones were steered into them. There was nothing specific about the OS that they needed. They went on the recommendation of the rep in their carrier store.

That puts the power into the carrier. Apple has retail stores where they can sell direct. If the carriers stop pushing Android it's going to stop selling in the same numbers.

Yes there's room for 3 platforms but I think people are going to be surprised at how quickly Microsoft regains ground.

kenypowa
Nov 1, 2012, 01:13 PM
Interesting comments so far. Going back to Palm's days as one of the early leaders in handhelds and observing trends over the years:

- I think RIM is done, it's just a question of when. They used to be the go-to choice for business and I rarely see them in the office anymore (Fortune 15 company).

- Even with MS missteps in mobile and my own complete lack of respect for anything MS post Vista, they'll be around for a long time to come. Their successful product lines can subsidize mobile while they carve out a piece of the pie. If they don't streamline their mobile OS (time to let go of the desktop influence on mobile devices) this might be a long and expensive proposition.

- Android: Google is a crazy strong innovator. Even with disparity in equipment, carrier/handset manufacturer impacts to new release distribution, and branch efforts like Kindle Fire, Android has similar strategic intents: Google Play provides consolidation of media and apps, and Android converged on the idea of use across small (phone) screens as well as tablets. And the power of the open source community puts *all* sole-sourced development shops at a massive disadvantage. Android will benefit from the collective capabilities of thousands and thousands of talented coders for a long time.

- iOS: I believe Apple's cross platform strategy integrating elements of mobile and desktop (iMessage, iCloud, Photostream) will only become more compelling over time and that strategy keeps Apple in the top 2 for the foreseeable future.

In the end, Android will remain the global dominant choice, Apple will remain a strong number two with the cross platform integration play, MS will remain a distant third if WP8 doesn't blow people away and RIM: Sorry, but they're toast. It was fun while it lasted, but the world moved past them just like it did with Palm.

Exactly my thought as well. Excellent post.

scott craft
Nov 1, 2012, 04:09 PM
Depends on the Carriers really.

Now that Microsoft is back with a credible platform they're going to leverage

A. The Windows, Exchange and Office hegemony
B. Immense marketing budget (MSFT knows they cannot fail here)
C. Growing retail presence.

Android is largely a carrier driven success. When the carriers saw that Microsoft wasn't ready, RIM was dying on the vine and Palm was rotting the only thing they could counter AT&T and Apple with was Android.

They could just as easily start steering customers into W8 phones. Most of the people I know with Android phones were steered into them. There was nothing specific about the OS that they needed. They went on the recommendation of the rep in their carrier store.

That puts the power into the carrier. Apple has retail stores where they can sell direct. If the carriers stop pushing Android it's going to stop selling in the same numbers.

Yes there's room for 3 platforms but I think people are going to be surprised at how quickly Microsoft regains ground.

I agree with all of this. I think it's going to be really great for us if/when Microsoft gets decent marketshare and increases the competition between platforms.

DeSnousa
Nov 1, 2012, 04:56 PM
I personally think there is room for 3 major players, if not 4 depending on how RIMs BB10 hits the market next year.

I think consumers have changed and we are not going to see something again like where Windows pretty much owned the PC market.

roxxette
Nov 1, 2012, 05:31 PM
I know the top guy in latin america believe it or not is RIM :D people go crazy for BBM, plans are cheap too.

opinioncircle
Nov 2, 2012, 03:13 AM
I know the top guy in latin america believe it or not is RIM :D people go crazy for BBM, plans are cheap too.

You're def right. And when travelling a bit around the world, read the Middle East, you'll see a pretty big variety of cell phones.

Blackberries, Nokias, iPhones, Androids, even prior OS'es....Really there are bits for everyone. Why corner the market to only 3 choices???:eek:

roxxette
Nov 2, 2012, 03:25 AM
True, isnt mozilla OS coming soon ? Others sure will join.