Who will govern in Germany?

[Sayhey]

The German elections are almost counted and the results could mean anything from a CDU or SPD led government to a coalition of both parties. While I have little love for the programs of SPD leader and Chancellor Gerhard Schöder, the prospect of a Merkel led government cozying up to Bush makes me ill. Here's to the Free Democrats coming round to joining the SPD and Greens in a center-left coalition. I'd rather the Left party was allowed to have some say, but that appears to be ruled out.

Merkel Leads in Close Vote

The first official preliminary returns show that the conservatives led by Merkel won more votes than Chancellor Schröder's SPD in Sunday's polls. But a clear winner is far from certain.
Merkel's opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) appeared to have scratched out a narrow election victory over Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) but crucially failed to secure the ruling majority they had sought.

The first official preliminary returns of the cliffhanger election showed that the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) took 35.2 percent of the vote while the SPD followed closely with 34.3 percent.

Merkel's preferred coalition partners, the free-market liberal FDP had a surprisingly good showing, grabbing 9.8 percent of the vote. The Left Party, an alliance of disgruntled SPD members and former communists, came in at 8.7 percent while the Greens clinched 8.1 percent.

According to the latest preliminary official count, the conservatives are also the strongest faction in parliament with 225 seats to the SPD's 222.... Deutsche Welle (http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1713767,00.html)

[groovebuster]

I bet on a coalition between CDU and SPD with Schröder as chancellor.

Merkel really screwed it up and lead to one of the weakest results for the CDU in an election since its existence... A majority of the people who voted for the CDU (around 60%) do not really want her as chancellor!!! Speaks for itself.

As soon as people in the CDU digested the aftermath of this election, she is history. She knows that and that's why she wants to be re-elected as the fraction leader of the CDU already tomorrow... before the people are teaming up to get rid of her.

groovebuster

[Diatribe]

I'd rather the Left party was allowed to have some say, but that appears to be ruled out.


Have you read their programm? Have you listened to more than two persons in this party? Seriously, nobody in their right mind with a little bit of political knowledge would ever vote for them or say something like that....


Anyway, I don't really believe in the CDU backing down and letting Schröder be Chancellor, not after what he said in the talks afterwards. If they do, the next 4 years will be minimalistic in reforms and I'll lose the last respect I had for that party. Anyway, my vote goes out for new elections.

[groovebuster]

This is the fun part about these elections... nobody has a clue what's gonna happen! :rolleyes:

I don't know if new elections would change anything... what if the results of the vote will be almost exactly the same as yesterday? What's next then?

If there would be new elections they would be definitely without Merkel and almost certain with Schröder as candidates. I wonder who the CDU would like to make their candidate in such a short time without losing their credibility completely?

For them it would be smart to accept Schröder as chancellor in a coalition for now. They could use the time to build up a new candidate during the next 2 years. Then they are calling for a vote of confidence which Schröder would lose and lead into new elections...

We'll see! ;)

groovebuster

[Ugg]

This is the fun part They could use the time to build up a new candidate during the next 2 years. Then they are calling for a vote of confidence which Schröder would lose and lead into new elections...

We'll see! ;)

groovebuster

Does the CDU have any viable candidates? The only names I ever hear are Merkel and Stoiber. Stoiber is definitely washed up since the CDU lost votes in Bayern and Merkel is obviously out the door.

[Sayhey]

Anyone know what the possibility of a minority SPD/Green government is? I know it would depend on the Left party not voting to oust them in a vote of no confidence, but I'm not even sure if under the German system this would be allowed. Do you have to have a majority of seats in parliament to form a government or can a party abstain and let a minority coalition take power?

A much more likely scenario would be persuading the Free Democrats to change their stance and join in a center/left coalition with the SPD and Greens. If I remember my history, they have joined in SPD governments in the past, so why not now? It makes no sense for them to stick with Merkel after the voters fled from her in droves. We shall see.

As to the Left Party, I like Lafontaine and I'm not afraid of involving ex-communists in governing (it's done all over eastern europe). After all, Gysi and the PDS are not old line Stalinists. They proved that in the last days of the GDR. Somebody has to stand up against the effects of these so-called reforms on workers. I'm not sure what position the Left party will take toward a preference in who forms the next government, but I think they represent a good number of Germans' concerns and should be listen to.

Anyway, I'm not a fan of any coalition that involves the CDU. Anything but that. Unfortunately, that is the most likely outcome of these elections.

[Diatribe]

As to the Left Party, I like Lafontaine and I'm not afraid of involving ex-communists in governing (it's done all over eastern europe). After all, Gysi and the PDS are not old line Stalinists. They proved that in the last days of the GDR. Somebody has to stand up against the effects of these so-called reforms on workers. I'm not sure what position the Left party will take toward a preference in who forms the next government, but I think they represent a good number of Germans' concerns and should be listen to.


Don't even get me started....

BOTH were in positions where they could have changed things... NONE of them achieved SQUAT and BOTH chickened out. Don't even try to talk either one good. They are the worst when it comes to doing their jobs...

[Sayhey]

Don't even get me started....

BOTH were in positions where they could have changed things... NONE of them achieved SQUAT and BOTH chickened out. Don't even try to talk either one good. They are the worst when it comes to doing their jobs...

At the risk of getting you started, you'll have to be more specific in your criticisms. I'm not nominating anyone for sainthood, but I'm encouraged that a new party is standing up for workers and not just accepting Schöder's "reforms" much less the mimicry of Thatcherism that Merkel supports.

As an old Trade Unionist, I'm fed up with how quickly politicians, including ones that masquerade as friends of the working stiff, are ready to give away hard fought for gains in standards of living and protections. All in the name of helping business compete against low wages and non-existent labor rights.

[Ugg]

At the risk of getting you started, you'll have to be more specific in your criticisms. I'm not nominating anyone for sainthood, but I'm encouraged that a new party is standing up for workers and not just accepting Schöder's "reforms" much less the mimicry of Thatcherism that Merkel supports.

As an old Trade Unionist, I'm fed up with how quickly politicians, including ones that masquerade as friends of the working stiff, are ready to give away hard fought for gains in standards of living and protections. All in the name of helping business compete against low wages and non-existent labor rights.

I think it goes deeper than that. Germany, Japan and Italy are suffering a net loss of population due to low birth rates and strong antipathy towards immigration. It won't be long before there are only two workers supporting 3 or more retirees. No economy can thrive much less survive with such demographics.

Admittedly, corporate Germany is doing pretty darned well, ie, Deutsche Post, Siemens, VW, etc are flush with cash while laying off workers in droves. But that is the reality that is the EU and if German workers and more important the trade unions don't come to terms with that reality, Germany could soon be a place for impoverished retirees as opposed to the biggest exporter in the world.

Schröder has only touched the surface in regards to reforms, the unions are committing suicide by not allowing more liberal hiring/firing laws. Not to mention the havoc the coal workers unions are wreaking on the German environment.

The world has changed since the 60s and Schröder is, I believe trying to do his best to protect the future of Germany. The far left is only trying to create some worker's utopia based on Ostalgia. It's amazing how 16 short years have changed people's view of the DDR.

[skunk]

I think it goes deeper than that. Germany, Japan and Italy are suffering a net loss of population due to low birth rates and strong antipathy towards immigration.Interesting axis of countries there...

[groovebuster]

Schröder was always in a lose/lose situation since he took office.

Traditionally his party was the party of the little people. Many of the anemities of the german social system were fought for by his party in the 60's and 70's. But after the CDU was incapable of reforming Germany during the 16 years long term of Helmut Kohl, it was clear that something had to change when his party won the election in 1998. The changes could only be made when everybody had to do sacrifices, also the people with low income and unemployed people. And that's the people who traditionally voted for the SPD.

So he had to find a way to "rebuild" Germany without ticking his voters off. An almost impossible quest. That's why his efforts in the beginning were not as fast as it would have been necessary. He wanted to make the people getting used to the thought that everybody has to contribute to a brighter future of Germany, not only the rich. Of course everybody (especially the CDU) was accusing him to delay necessary reforms. But also the people didn't get the message that only together the changes can be succesful and were mad at him as well. The election in 2002 his party won only by luck with a very little margin.

Meanwhile in the federal states in Germany one by one fell to the CDU with every election there. The CDU then had a majority in the Federal Council of Germany and blocked almost every single law that Schröder wanted to pass (no matter if it was useful or not), just in order to claim the next second that the SPD fails to make any changes that will bring Germany back on the right track. That shows what kind of hypocrites Merkel and her CDU are...

So Schröder got ass whipped by his own people who voted for him and still couldn't achieve anything useful because the CDU was blocking everything just to make the SPD look bad. The few reforms the SPD was getting through were even mainly the idea of the CDU (otherwiser they would never have passed the Federal Council). Now they say Schröder didn't do enough and the reforms were too halfhearted.

For Joe Six-Pack it looks as if the SPD made everything even worse in Germany, even though the CDU was causing a lot of the mess as well. For the CDU the main goal was always to get back into power by making the SPD look bad. That Germany lost precious years due to their incapability to cooperate with the SPD in order to give Germany a better future didn't seem to give them sleepless nights at all it seems.

So people leaned over to the CDU after Schröder called for new elections in May. But the last few weeks of the CDU campaign made some of them realize that they would be off even worse when Merkel and a conservative government would be in power. I know numerous people who wanted to vote for the CDU this time but didn't do in the end on the election day. After hearing what the CDU wants to do when Merkel is chancelor it doesn't look that bad anymore what Schröder did.

I am not really a Schröder fan, since all powerful politicians are hypocrites to a certain degree. He is no exception from the rule... But compared to Merkel and the CDU he is almost a Saint...

groovebuster

[groovebuster]

Interesting axis of countries there...

Why?

[Diatribe]

But compared to Merkel and the CDU he is almost a Saint...

groovebuster

I love generalizations... the SPD is soooo much better... lol.

Anyway, getting tired of talking about it... too much aggravation involved in talking about politics with uninformed, having their minds made up people.

[groovebuster]

I love generalizations... the SPD is soooo much better... lol.
Not much, but a bit. And at the end of the day it comes done to personal opinion, right? That's why we have elections.

Anyway, getting tired of talking about it... too much aggravation involved in talking about politics with uninformed, having their minds made up people.
No reason to become insulting. Not everybody who has a different point of view is uninformed. Your attitude is arrogant, ignorant and therefore unacceptable...

groovebuster

[skunk]

Why?Since you mentioned the three wartime Axis powers, I wondered if there was a shared underlying characteristic producing these results. Probably not.

[Don't panic]

Anyway, getting tired of talking about it... too much aggravation involved in talking about politics with uninformed, having their minds made up people.

??? some want to get informed, others seem pretty informed (but apparently of a different opinion than yours). It was so far an interesting thread, of pretty decent standards, compared to most.

groovebuster, regarding skunks comment: just rewind 60 years ;)

[Diatribe]

??? some want to get informed, others seem pretty informed (but apparently of a different opinion than yours). It was so far an interesting thread, of pretty decent standards, compared to most.

groovebuster, regarding skunks comment: just rewind 60 years ;)

I do have an opinion but are always open to arguments. But a lot of comments (not only in this thread but of the last couple of discussions I had about this topic) are based on half-knowledge of which seems to float around a lot. Politics is mostly an argument of perspectives, few people use facts to undermine their points. Saying that one party is worse than the other just because...?
And glorifying people that have chickened out of their positions because they didn't do ****... and now thinking they can actually achieve something? I'd like to be proven wrong about a lot of things but some things are just the way they are and few people use second chances. That's not to say I don't give everyone a second chance...

[skunk]

few people use facts to undermine their pointsI assume you mean "underline"...
And glorifying people that have chickened out of their positions because they didn't do ****... and now thinking they can actually achieve something? I'd like to be proven wrong about a lot of things but some things are just the way they are and few people use second chances. That's not to say I don't give everyone a second chance...You've certainly lost me here.
:confused:

[Diatribe]

I assume you mean "underline"...

of course... typing too fast :)


You've certainly lost me here.
:confused:

I was referring to the original post, where Gysi and Lafontaine were pictured as if they were decent politicians that had achieved something...

[groovebuster]

I was referring to the original post, where Gysi and Lafontaine were pictured as if they were decent politicians that had achieved something...
Well, like it or not... even that depends on the point of view. Again I don't want to defend these two, because I find them horrible, but already that is a contribution to the political culture, don't you think? And "chickening out" is OK in my opinion, when I never claimed before that I would do the job... When you are criticizing somebody, it doesn't mean that you are convinced that you can do the job yourself. Complicated subject... But if you are accusing people of generalizing you shouldn't do it yourself.

I say that especially since you attacked me indirectly for my opinion that the SPD is the lesser evil compared to the CDU. Again, that is personal opinion. If you don't like the opinion of somebody else it doesn't necessarily mean that the person is stupid! Of course everything in this world depends on the point of view. So if I think the SPD is not as bad as the CDU you can disagree, but how can you claim to be smarter than I am? All parties in the political arena are corrupt. It just depends again on the point of view which one is the lesser evil. To claim that all the parties are bad and none is better than the other sounds very smart and educated at first, but actually that's about it, because it doesn't imply any reasonable solution. Then you are not better than all the Gysis and Lafontaines out there.

And now, my angry young man, I will reveal something to you: neither I voted for the CDU (of course), nor for the SPD, because I found both unacceptable to vote for this time. I also didn't vote for any extreme party left or right wing. Leaves not many options, but since I'll keep the actual decision a secret, you are free to guess. Since you are so smart and know it all and other people are so predictable for you, it should be a piece of cake for you to know what I did.

groovebuster

[Xtremehkr]

NPR had the most interesting discussion concerning this topic. It may be that the German people do not want one or the other but a compromise between the two. A concept based on compromise and pragmatism, worth considering.

[Ugg]

NPR had the most interesting discussion concerning this topic. It may be that the German people do not want one or the other but a compromise between the two. A concept based on compromise and pragmatism, worth considering.

Unfortunately it's not going to happen. I agree the the voters are mixed in regards to the SPD and CDU but there's no possible way either parties will allow the other to have the upper hand.

Germany's way forward is either with Schröder's "gentle reforms" or with Merkel's hard hearted and exceedingly generous business and rich people reforms. She's allowed herself to be portrayed as Germany's answer to Maggie T. but she doesn't have what it takes to lead. Schröder has what it takes but has allowed his agenda to get too watered down.

[Sayhey]

I was referring to the original post, where Gysi and Lafontaine were pictured as if they were decent politicians that had achieved something...

I'm guessing that was my post. You will still have to be more specific if you want a real discussion on the Left party or Gysi or Lafontaine. As I said, I'm not holding either of them up as saints, but I also can only speculate on what your criticisms are of the party or the individuals until you spell them out. If you think I'm ill informed for being glad that someone is standing up for working people when their wages and protections are being undermined, I'm always ready to be educated by those who know better. Many a boss has tried to convince me before. :rolleyes:

[Xtremehkr]

Unfortunately it's not going to happen. I agree the the voters are mixed in regards to the SPD and CDU but there's no possible way either parties will allow the other to have the upper hand.



I think that is the point, they will have to compromise. Let the politicians do their jobs at this point, the most unreasonable (politicians) will not get another chance.

[Diatribe]

I'm guessing that was my post. You will still have to be more specific if you want a real discussion on the Left party or Gysi or Lafontaine. As I said, I'm not holding either of them up as saints, but I also can only speculate on what your criticisms are of the party or the individuals until you spell them out. If you think I'm ill informed for being glad that someone is standing up for working people when their wages and protections are being undermined, I'm always ready to be educated by those who know better. Many a boss has tried to convince me before. :rolleyes:

I don't want a real discussion... really. :p

But for the sake of not just leaving you standing in the rain... both have had positions where they could've actually done the things they are always talking about... Gysi for example was treasury secretary of Berlin when he saw that this could only damage his reputation, since it was looking really bad, and he resigned over a little affair that was not really worth mentioning.
His reasoning was that "his voters were disappointed of him"... if they were disappointed of him then(which is complete bs, he just needed a reason to get out) why is he running again for something? Are they less disappointed of him now? If so, why? He hasn't done anything the last couple of years.
And to say just because someone says something nice about someone and says that he'll support them doesn't mean that they'll actually do it nor have the faintest realistic plan to do so. Backing out of responsibility and then suggesting that they can change anything.... pathetic.
As for Lafontaine... same story, different book.

[Diatribe]

Well, like it or not... even that depends on the point of view. Again I don't want to defend these two, because I find them horrible, but already that is a contribution to the political culture, don't you think? And "chickening out" is OK in my opinion, when I never claimed before that I would do the job... When you are criticizing somebody, it doesn't mean that you are convinced that you can do the job yourself. Complicated subject... But if you are accusing people of generalizing you shouldn't do it yourself.

I say that especially since you attacked me indirectly for my opinion that the SPD is the lesser evil compared to the CDU. Again, that is personal opinion. If you don't like the opinion of somebody else it doesn't necessarily mean that the person is stupid! Of course everything in this world depends on the point of view. So if I think the SPD is not as bad as the CDU you can disagree, but how can you claim to be smarter than I am? All parties in the political arena are corrupt. It just depends again on the point of view which one is the lesser evil. To claim that all the parties are bad and none is better than the other sounds very smart and educated at first, but actually that's about it, because it doesn't imply any reasonable solution. Then you are not better than all the Gysis and Lafontaines out there.

And now, my angry young man, I will reveal something to you: neither I voted for the CDU (of course), nor for the SPD, because I found both unacceptable to vote for this time. I also didn't vote for any extreme party left or right wing. Leaves not many options, but since I'll keep the actual decision a secret, you are free to guess. Since you are so smart and know it all and other people are so predictable for you, it should be a piece of cake for you to know what I did.

groovebuster

Haha, you're funny. :p The only angry person here seems to be you, since you feel I indirectly attacked you for your views. ;)

Anyway, no need to feel bad, there's no real point in arguing over this stuff here, since it takes even more effort than in person and even that I am growing tired of over the last couple of days. So it's nothing personal and you can come down from that tree of age and wisdom that you claim to be looking down on me from.

Two last words though. To say that one party is less hypocritical than the other is just misinformed. There is maybe one of the bigger parties that is less of that but only to a certain extent. I could name you examples the entire day how the Greens make decisions against the environment, how the SPD and Schröder talk about only sides of one story, which you so adequately put as perspective, which is nothing less than an excuse for not talking facts. Facts don't have a perspective period. And even how the CDU claims to do something and in reality does something else. My arguments towards the left party are in my statements above.
Anyway, there is no "lesser evil" and people still live in their little world that was full of growth and prosperity. Times have changed though and people still expect the country to pay for everything even though they know there is no money to do so, which is in part fault of the Kohl government.
Most arguments towards change are just irrational and because of fear. I can understand that but it paralyzes this country. And to say that the SPD would've actually done the necessary reforms without the CDU blocking them is misinformed, no other way to put it. Schröder's ideas weren't even backed by his own party... and the reforms were in part the exact opposite of what the CDU wanted so it is understandable that they rejected them.
The big problem in our political system is that politicians are campaigning every year instead of doing the things they were elected to do. Combine that with populist arguments and misinformed voters and you have a system that doesn't work, which is why less and less people vote.

Now I have written more than I wanted but oh well. If you again feel attacked personally, I am sorry. That wasn't the intention neither of this nor the last post. I do have some criticisms concerning some of your arguments but that shouldn't get you riled up.
I kinda don't want to talk about it anymore, nothing personal, just had too many political conversations in the last days and most people don't have real facts anyways, so it is tough to argue. (Not saying I provide links, etc. but I am too lazy right now)
Anyway, I wish you a nice day and a nice week and may the next government, whoever it will be, make Germany a better place to live in, for "our" children's sake. (Not that I have any) :D

[Sayhey]

Diatribe, we could debate the wisdom or lack thereof in Gysi's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregor_Gysi) resignation or that of Lafontaine's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_Lafontaine) from both the Federal goverment and the SPD, but to me the real question is whether Schröder's Agenda 2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_2010) "reforms" or that of Merkel's neo-Thatcherism is the solution to Germany's real problems. I would submit there are large problems with both approaches and someone has to stand up for what the effect of the destruction of large parts of the social safety net has on the unemployed and homeless. The Left Party may or may not be the best party to do that, but I'm glad they are trying. Schröder gave up long ago.

[Diatribe]

Diatribe, we could debate the wisdom or lack thereof in Gysi's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregor_Gysi) resignation or that of Lafontaine's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_Lafontaine) from both the Federal goverment and the SPD, but to me the real question is whether Schröder's Agenda 2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_2010) "reforms" or that of Merkel's neo-Thatcherism is the solution to Germany's real problems. I would submit there are large problems with both approaches and someone has to stand up for what the effect of the destruction of large parts of the social safety net has on the unemployed and homeless. The Left Party may or may not be the best party to do that, but I'm glad they are trying. Schröder gave up long ago.

The problem is half-assed approaches. There cannot be a social safety net without money. Money cannot be generated without employment and employment cannot be generated without innovation, lower additional costs to the wages and strict protection of employees so they cannot be fired. (Not talking about long-term employees here, just the ones that have been in the company for a half year to year)
Unless these factors are met it will continue to be a problem. A problem that will eventually die out by itself looking at the demographic changes in Germany and which will be replaced by an even bigger problem. The problem of how to pay pensions when there will be a ratio of almost 1 to 1 in the next 20 years.
The thing is that innovation and costs of employment are the driving factors in an economy and both are really bad in Germany.
As the left party allways says, the Skandinavian countries have a strong social net AND are doing great economically... the thing ist though this is EXACTLY THE REASON WHY they have such a net, BECAUSE they have the economic background to do so. You can't just go on like this and hope it works out somehow. Just saying pretty words and holding speeches isn't gonna change anything...

[Sayhey]

An article in Deutsche Welle (http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1716054,00.html) that should be remembered as all the CDU rhetoric about their "victory" is being thrown around.
Germany Leans Left

Although the conservative CDU/CSU got the most votes of a single party, most Germans cast their ballots for center-left and left-wing parties. That may be one reason Gerhard Schröder insists he should remain chancellor.

Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats both claimed victory for their parties in Sunday's closely fought election, but with 35.2 and 34.3 percent respectively neither party received a clear mandate from the electorate. But a total of 51.1 percent cast ballots for the three parties to the left of the center, the SPD, the Green party and the newly formed Left Party. Only 43.9 percent voted for the conservatives and the free-market liberal Free Democrats (FDP)....

[takao]

that's why Schröder is considering himself a the winner .. he simply is playing the same game as Schüssel did in 1999 here in austria.. he refused to go in a big coalition simply to screw it up for the SPÖ and to become chancellor by himself... at the moment the CDU has to bet on the greens if they want Merkel at the helm