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MacRumors
Jan 25, 2013, 09:37 AM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)


The 10% drop (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/apple-stock-down-10-in-after-hours-trading-amidst-concerns-of-flat-growth/) in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2013/01/fortune-worst.png
Fortune assessed the accuracy (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/23/apple-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013-analysts/) of the predictions (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q1-2013-earnings-call/) made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.The company didn't have a bad quarter. In fact, it posted its best quarter ever ... But the stock market is an expectations game and Apple is expected to blow past analysts' estimates, not miss them.The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Article Link: Analysts Share in Blame for Apple's Stock Drop, Says Fortune (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)



Ryth
Jan 25, 2013, 09:40 AM
Fortune? Why does this go to a CNNMONEY story at Apple 2.0?

Killa Aaron
Jan 25, 2013, 09:41 AM
Stupid analyst, one of the reasons why the economy is so messed up, listening to these dummies.

powerslave12r
Jan 25, 2013, 09:41 AM
.. was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions
:rolleyes:

This is the funniest thing I've read all day.

madsci954
Jan 25, 2013, 09:42 AM
So what they're saying is...

Dear analysts,
Shut the hell up!
Sincerely,
Fortune

Tankmaze
Jan 25, 2013, 09:44 AM
But the stock market is an expectations game and Apple is expected to blow past analysts' estimates, not miss them.

so analyst would predict an expectation like say... 10000% growth for apple and when it doesn't meet their expectation, the stock plummet ?
good job analyst ! :rolleyes:

Simplicated
Jan 25, 2013, 09:48 AM
so analyst would predict an expectation like say... 10000% growth for apple and when it doesn't meet their expectation, the stock plummet ?
good job analyst ! :rolleyes:

Exactly. These analysts set an impossible-to-meet target and then cause the stock to plummet. That's why I hate these m**********rs.

AppleAlfred
Jan 25, 2013, 10:03 AM
Exactly. These analysts set an impossible-to-meet target and then cause the stock to plummet. That's why I hate these m**********rs.

The analysts don't "cause" the stock to plummet, it's all the stupid traders selling the stock because it doesn't meet expectations. If people knew anything about investing, they would realize that Apple is now way undervalued and is still a solid company. I'll be gobbling up as many shares as I can, and if you've looked a lot of analysts still have much higher targets on Apple.

kas23
Jan 25, 2013, 10:03 AM
The problem with MacRumors is that it chooses to exclude certain news stories. The news stories presented usually paint a rosy picture for Apple. So, when people see the stock prices fall, they become confused. They then start searching for excuses. MacRumors should also be reporting this:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130124006624/en/Strategy-Analytics-Global-Smartphone-Shipments-Reach-Record

And this:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130124006630/en/Strong-Demand-Smartphones-Heated-Vendor-Competition-Characterize

Once people read these articles, they'll be more prepared to see a falling Apple stock price instead of looking for excuses.

jm001
Jan 25, 2013, 10:12 AM
What's your point? Both articles were positive for Apple and actually the first article was covered (the data at least) by Macrumors several days ago.

extricated
Jan 25, 2013, 10:14 AM
"not entirely the fault of Apple"

You think?
Apple had record-breaking earnings for yet another quarter.

JGRE
Jan 25, 2013, 10:14 AM
Analysts think they have to comment any company even if they they don't understand squad about the strategy and performance of the company. They only want to bring sensational stories which make them look good. It is all about sensation and greed. :mad:

notjustjay
Jan 25, 2013, 10:23 AM
This shouldn't surprise anybody. We go through this right here on these forums with every Apple product launch.

It's always the same. In the weeks before the product launch, the rumors start flying. The new product will have a brand new design! It'll be thinner! Lighter! With twice the power! And there will be a price drop! And a spec bump across the line! The whole line-up will be updated! No, replaced! No, this is going to be the start of a brand new product category! Here are some product mockups. Here's what these could look like!

Then the discussion starts flying. "Here's what I'd like to see!" People start predicting entire product lines, including estimated pricing, and start drooling about how awesome it's all going to be.

Then the product announcement happens. It's a new version number with a reasonable spec bump. The form factor is the same as last year's model but the price drops slightly. It's a competitive upgrade, but nothing revolutionary.

And then the complaining starts... What happened to the revolutionary new design? What happened to the brand new product line? We're so disappointed!

Nothing "happened to it". You guys made it all up in the first place. There's no way those expectations could ever have been met.

Every. Single. Time.

Greg.
Jan 25, 2013, 10:27 AM
Image (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)


The 10% drop (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/apple-stock-down-10-in-after-hours-trading-amidst-concerns-of-flat-growth/) in Apple's share value following the company's earnings release earlier this week was not entirely the fault of Apple, Fortune suggests, but rather that of overheated analyst predictions.

Image (http://cdn.macrumors.com/article-new/2013/01/fortune-worst.png)
Fortune assessed the accuracy (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/23/apple-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013-analysts/) of the predictions (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/23/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q1-2013-earnings-call/) made by 68 analysts, and found that revenue figures ranged from $51.7 billion to $65.69 billion against Apple's actual performance of $54.51 billion. It produced a ranking of the analysts by the percentage errors in their predictions for both revenue and earnings per share, as well as overall performance metrics.

The analysts responsible for the sometimes wildly optimistic forecasts were not, said Fortune, doing Apple any favors.The Fortune piece wryly observed that 'another way of looking at it is that Apple's analysts did worse than the company this quarter.'

Going forward, Apple has altered the way in which it provides guidance for upcoming quarterly performances. While the company had previously issued single "conservative" guidance estimates for both revenue and earnings that led to the expectation that Apple would always handily beat that number, it is now providing a range of guidance numbers for revenue and other factors.

Apple believes that the range will provide a more realistic idea of where the company expects performance to fall, although it is no longer providing any specific earnings per share guidance and instead allowing analysts to develop their own numbers based on the ranges of revenue, margin, expenses, and tax rate the company expects.

Article Link: Analysts Share in Blame for Apple's Stock Drop, Says Fortune (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/analysts-share-in-blame-for-apples-stock-drop-says-fortune/)

Having worked as an equity research analyst, I can tell you all of the worst offenders shown here are not real analysts and give the profession a bad name.

Traderhood: Seems to be some dodgy forum for people who are long APPL. No idea how they're getting published like they're official.

Gregg Thurman: Independent, says it all. No real clients to answer to so no pressure to get calls right. Almost definitely long AAPL based on his SeekingAlpha posting history and so clearly adds up to being mega-bullish when he can. He also has a thread of MacObserver where he guesses where AAPL will go based on historical trend data - seems legit?! :rolleyes:

Bullish Cross Research: So just a random blog, with the first title I spot being 'Apple $1000: why it's time to buy'. Scanning through, it's more of the same. I seriously don't get how they get treated like they're official!

Braeburn Group: Familiar as repeat offenders every time when it comes to AAPL estimates. Basically a group of people long AAPL (they disclose this) grouping together to write pro-AAPL stuff. Their current price target is 85% above todays stock price.

Alexis Cabot: Again independent, same story.

Asymco: Based on his twitter, looks like he's stopping making estimates. Convenient.

etc. etc.

Overall it's all a bit of a mess. Getting forecasts right is like throwing darts blindfolded. The old status quo was everyone on the buy-side held AAPL and so the sell-side made bullish reports to please their clients. Apple gave conservative estimates which they then of course beat, stock goes up, everyone happy. Basically Apple have now said this will no longer be the case, so hopefully we'll see accuracy improve and ensure the long-AAPL independents can no longer be praised and given media attention when their above consensus estimates come in.

ovrlrd
Jan 25, 2013, 10:40 AM
The problem with MacRumors is that it chooses to exclude certain news stories. The news stories presented usually paint a rosy picture for Apple. So, when people see the stock prices fall, they become confused. They then start searching for excuses. MacRumors should also be reporting this:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130124006624/en/Strategy-Analytics-Global-Smartphone-Shipments-Reach-Record

And this:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130124006630/en/Strong-Demand-Smartphones-Heated-Vendor-Competition-Characterize

Once people read these articles, they'll be more prepared to see a falling Apple stock price instead of looking for excuses.

Actually they have reported similar articles in the past, the problem is that they have almost no relevance as to the recent stock changes and have no reason to be mentioned in this kind of context. Market shares and vendor shipments have very little impact in stock market value, as hard as that is to understand.

Ryth
Jan 25, 2013, 10:42 AM
Having worked as an equity research analyst, I can tell you all of the worst offenders shown here are not real analysts and give the profession a bad name.

Traderhood: Seems to be some dodgy forum for people who are long APPL. No idea how they're getting published like they're official.

Gregg Thurman: Independent, says it all. No real clients to answer to so no pressure to get calls right. Almost definitely long AAPL based on his SeekingAlpha posting history and so clearly adds up to being mega-bullish when he can. He also has a thread of MacObserver where he guesses where AAPL will go based on historical trend data - seems legit?! :rolleyes:

Bullish Cross Research: So just a random blog, with the first title I spot being 'Apple $1000: why it's time to buy'. Scanning through, it's more of the same. I seriously don't get how they get treated like they're official!

Braeburn Group: Familiar as repeat offenders every time when it comes to AAPL estimates. Basically a group of people long AAPL (they disclose this) grouping together to write pro-AAPL stuff. Their current price target is 85% above todays stock price.

Alexis Cabot: Again independent, same story.

Asymco: Based on his twitter, looks like he's stopping making estimates. Convenient.

etc. etc.

Overall it's all a bit of a mess. Getting forecasts right is like throwing darts blindfolded. The old status quo was everyone on the buy-side held AAPL and so the sell-side made bullish reports to please their clients. Apple gave conservative estimates which they then of course beat, stock goes up, everyone happy. Basically Apple have now said this will no longer be the case, so hopefully we'll see accuracy improve and ensure the long-AAPL independents can no longer be praised and given media attention when their above consensus estimates come in.

Correct.

Which is why there needs to be some sort of filter on these people because a lot of them post false stories and other rumors that have no merit but tout them as factual without even being required to verify sources and so on.

There is no accountability from these individuals, nor their institutions if they have one.

Like you said, those analysts that have clients to answer to, don't try to make ridiculous predictions.

I think a good start is for sites like MacRumors, Apple2.0 and so on to not give these amateurs any ammo by not even mentioning them or their articles.

bflowers
Jan 25, 2013, 10:48 AM
Kind of makes you wonder if stock holders couldn't sue the analysts for price manipulation... I mean, these people get paid big money, and directly impact the savings and investments of millions, to the tune of billions of dollars, all based on stuff they make up or pull out of their rears! :eek:

Greg.
Jan 25, 2013, 10:48 AM
Correct.

Which is why there needs to be some sort of filter on these people because a lot of them post false stories and other rumors that have no merit but tout them as factual without even being required to verify sources and so on.

There is no accountability from these individuals, nor their institutions if they have one.

Like you said, those analysts that have clients to answer to, don't try to make ridiculous predictions.

I think a good start is for sites like MacRumors, Apple2.0 and so on to not give these amateurs any ammo by not even mentioning them or their articles.

I really don't get it. It's like me taking one of the companies I hold stock in right now, loading up excel and creating a forecast without any corporate access. For any other company there's no way I could get this published and counted as part of Wall Street's consensus, but for AAPL this seems to be the case! They should stick to something like Estimize (http://www.estimize.com).

I'm not saying analysts are saints, but including all these amateur analysts really distorts the picture in articles like this. The major bank I used to work for who were below consensus and whose numbers got beat with this earnings announcements aren't even on the full chart that Fortune has on it's site - which helps give the impression that every analyst is super bullish and it's a crooked industry.

kas23
Jan 25, 2013, 10:59 AM
What's your point? Both articles were positive for Apple and actually the first article was covered (the data at least) by Macrumors several days ago.

Those articles show Apple's slipping market share. The growth of Samsung is greatly outstripping the growth of Apple. If one actually looks at the numbers, not just read the headlines, they'll see that these numbers are actually not good news for Apple. The wording of these headlines is the real manipulation here.

Plus, give me a link of where MRs reported these number. They just came out yesterday.

----------

Market shares and vendor shipments have very little impact in stock market value, as hard as that is to understand.

Yep, paltry market share growth would have no impact on investor confidence in Apple.

srxtr
Jan 25, 2013, 11:21 AM
I hope AAPL continues to go south this year so I can pick up more shares

sza
Jan 25, 2013, 11:23 AM
Stupid analyst, one of the reasons why the economy is so messed up, listening to these dummies.

Analysts are not stupid, the listeners are.;)

iMikeT
Jan 25, 2013, 11:32 AM
Of couuuuuuurrrrrrrssseeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OMFG, many of us on here were saying exactly this and there were the idiots defending these bozos! :mad:

sseaton1971
Jan 25, 2013, 11:54 AM
Those articles show Apple's slipping market share. The growth of Samsung is greatly outstripping the growth of Apple. If one actually looks at the numbers, not just read the headlines, they'll see that these numbers are actually not good news for Apple. The wording of these headlines is the real manipulation here.

Isn't it more about revenue/profit than marketshare? I don't know how the two compare when it comes to actual dollars, but I think that would be a better way to compare the two companies.

FireFish
Jan 25, 2013, 11:58 AM
Bottom line is this:

Analysts cannot be trusted as a sole source for investment planning.
Remember this: They want people to buy Apple; it's good for their business. Unfortunately everyone has their own intentions at heart so you need to go with your gut, . . . and mine sold 80% of my shares @ $586. :apple:

I'm personally waiting for it to hit $420 and I'll probably pick up a few more. :rolleyes:

carlgo
Jan 25, 2013, 12:10 PM
A smart anal-ist would talk up expectations, make up all sorts of impossible to meet expectations. At the same time shorting the stock, knowing that Wall Street will panic as it always does.

shotts56
Jan 25, 2013, 12:37 PM
Analysts are not stupid, the listeners are.;)

Correct. Analysts don't move share prices, people who buy & sell shares do.

But when it goes wrong for you, culture these days is to find someone to blame. "Boo hoo, it was all those nasty analysts fault". The same as six years ago when you could no longer afford the mortgage that you committed to, "Boo hoo, it was all those nasty bankers fault".

There's always someone else to blame.

Ryth
Jan 25, 2013, 01:04 PM
I really don't get it. It's like me taking one of the companies I hold stock in right now, loading up excel and creating a forecast without any corporate access. For any other company there's no way I could get this published and counted as part of Wall Street's consensus, but for AAPL this seems to be the case! They should stick to something like Estimize (http://www.estimize.com).

I'm not saying analysts are saints, but including all these amateur analysts really distorts the picture in articles like this. The major bank I used to work for who were below consensus and whose numbers got beat with this earnings announcements aren't even on the full chart that Fortune has on it's site - which helps give the impression that every analyst is super bullish and it's a crooked industry.

Right...but you can get it published if you write your own blog and then other blogs that are more popular start taking your blog and using it as opinion or factual information.

That's the real issue is that the big sites are starting to take information from everywhere and not researching or validating it.

Another issue is Apple's poor guidance. They continued to blow past estimates and then finally the analysts were like..screw it..we'll adjust upwards..the issue is they now go too far up just like they underestimated before.

robanga
Jan 25, 2013, 01:09 PM
Right...but you can get it published if you write your own blog and then other blogs that are more popular start taking your blog and using it as opinion or factual information.

That's the real issue is that the big sites are starting to take information from everywhere and not researching or validating it.

Another issue is Apple's poor guidance. They continued to blow past estimates and then finally the analysts were like..screw it..we'll adjust upwards..the issue is they now go too far up just like they underestimated before.

Continual sandbagging in almost any business always finds a way to bit you. Still i wonder how hard it would be of a trail to follow from some negative analysts or news leaks to someone making money on shorting stock? (although certain the reverse could be true too)

Would be interesting investigative journalism.

My1stMacWasLisa
Jan 25, 2013, 01:20 PM
It's bewildering. Tim and his team work hard to (1) run the company so well and (2) give accurate sensible forcast figures, Apple announce results that pretty much exactly meet Tim's forecasts and what happens?

A bunch of analysts, rhymes with fantasists, make crap up and when the crap doesn't come true 'the market' responds to the crap and claim Apple is going down the pan.

It's the blind leading the blind out there in financial land. One clueless clown following the 'advice' of another.

You know what they say about careers. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach and those who can do ferck all become anal-ists.

----------

Analysts are not stupid, the listeners are.;)

Based on the nonsensical made up 'projected' figures most of these anl-ists were touting it's pretty clear they are stupid, or up to something.

They're proabably all out there now, buying at 445, laughing.

Ryth
Jan 25, 2013, 01:57 PM
It's bewildering. Tim and his team work hard to (1) run the company so well and (2) give accurate sensible forcast figures, Apple announce results that pretty much exactly meet Tim's forecasts and what happens?

A bunch of analysts, rhymes with fantasists, make crap up and when the crap doesn't come true 'the market' responds to the crap and claim Apple is going down the pan.

It's the blind leading the blind out there in financial land. One clueless clown following the 'advice' of another.

You know what they say about careers. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach and those who can do ferck all become anal-ists.[COLOR="#808080"]


That's my one issue with Tim right now. Steve responded to BS if it threatened the company and came out like a lion.

Tim needs to come out and do more about superfluous rumors and BS that these hedge fund guys are trying to use to tank the stock. What he also needs to do is throw Wall Street a bone now and then.

When Tim said the other day to the affect of "Apple cares about making the best product, not revenues"...that sent a shudder through me and I'm sure other investors/shareholders/Wall Street.

The correct response should have been something to the tune of "Apple cares about making the best possible product. And we all know that if you make the best possible product, then the best possible revenues will obviously follow."

jon3543
Jan 25, 2013, 02:15 PM
That's my one issue with Tim right now. Steve responded to BS if it threatened the company and came out like a lion.

Tim needs to come out and do more about superfluous rumors and BS that these hedge fund guys are trying to use to tank the stock. What he also needs to do is throw Wall Street a bone now and then.

I think I understand why he doesn't. If he did, he'd be responding to rumors every day, and if he missed a day, or is perceived as too vague, he'd fuel even more rumors. Best just to ignore the noise and focus on making products, releasing pieces of good news when they're truly notable between the usual events.

When Tim said the other day to the affect of "Apple cares about making the best product, not revenues"...that sent a shudder through me and I'm sure other investors/shareholders/Wall Street.

The correct response should have been something to the tune of "Apple cares about making the best possible product. And we all know that if you make the best possible product, then the best possible revenues will obviously follow."

I get your objection, but the latter of course is what he meant.

mrsir2009
Jan 25, 2013, 02:28 PM
Of course they are -_-

SeattleMoose
Jan 25, 2013, 02:45 PM
Proving once again that stock value is more closely tied to hot air than actual performance.

Porco
Jan 25, 2013, 04:09 PM
analysis (n.)
1580s, "resolution of anything complex into simple elements" (opposite of synthesis), from Medieval Latin analysis (15c.), from Greek analysis "a breaking up, a loosening, releasing," noun of action from analyein "unloose, release, set free; to loose a ship from its moorings," in Aristotle, "to analyze," from ana "up, throughout" (see ana-) + lysis "a loosening," from lyein "to unfasten" (see lose). Psychological sense is from 1890. Phrase in the final (or last) analysis (1844), translates French en dernière analyse.

That's the thing - sometimes in resolving something complex into simple elements you miss the entire point by focusing only on the details and not the bigger picture. Which is not to say there isn't some value in focusing on details, it just shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of relevant data, and it seems like the stock markets give far too much weight to what analysts say.

In a way though, it's similar to how many computer users view Apple versus generic PCs - focusing on an arbitrary set of specs and power between macs and PCs as if they are the only things that matter, ignoring other factors which demonstrably affect people's purchasing decisions such as aethetics, design, the 'total experience' over the tiny details. Again, in their place there is nothing wrong with a list of specs being part of a rounded decision-making process, but relying too heavily on specs can get you a computer that crushes all others on the specs but which you hate to use and is ultimately a bad choice for you.

kas23
Jan 25, 2013, 06:01 PM
Isn't it more about revenue/profit than marketshare? I don't know how the two compare when it comes to actual dollars, but I think that would be a better way to compare the two companies.

One would think, but that's not how the stock market functions. You have emotional beings selling to emotional beings. You would also think that people don't get scared and sell stock when it bottoms out or buy Apple stock when it skyrockets to $700.

sseaton1971
Jan 25, 2013, 08:54 PM
One would think, but that's not how the stock market functions. You have emotional beings selling to emotional beings. You would also think that people don't get scared and sell stock when it bottoms out or buy Apple stock when it skyrockets to $700.

Good point about the "emotional beings" factor! ;)

szw-mapple fan
Jan 25, 2013, 09:31 PM
Analysts think they have to comment any company even if they they don't understand squad about the strategy and performance of the company. They only want to bring sensational stories which make them look good. It is all about sensation and greet. :mad:

greet? you meant greed right?

macs4nw
Jan 26, 2013, 03:17 AM
This shouldn't surprise anybody. We go through this right here on these forums with every Apple product launch.

It's always the same. In the weeks before the product launch, the rumors start flying. The new product will have a brand new design! It'll be thinner! Lighter! With twice the power! And there will be a price drop! And a spec bump across the line! The whole line-up will be updated! No, replaced! No, this is going to be the start of a brand new product category! Here are some product mockups. Here's what these could look like!

Then the discussion starts flying. "Here's what I'd like to see!" People start predicting entire product lines, including estimated pricing, and start drooling about how awesome it's all going to be.

Then the product announcement happens. It's a new version number with a reasonable spec bump. The form factor is the same as last year's model but the price drops slightly. It's a competitive upgrade, but nothing revolutionary.

And then the complaining starts... What happened to the revolutionary new design? What happened to the brand new product line? We're so disappointed!

Nothing "happened to it". You guys made it all up in the first place. There's no way those expectations could ever have been met.

Every. Single. Time.

Gotta hand it to you, that's a pretty accurate analysis! And these rumors seem to go on for months, rather than weeks, after which come the parts leaks that only seem to create more confusion and stoke even more speculation. As much as I hate to admit it, being here, we're all part of it. :)

JGRE
Jan 26, 2013, 04:30 AM
greet? you meant greed right?

Yes, sorry for the typo.

JGRE
Jan 26, 2013, 04:48 AM
This shouldn't surprise anybody. We go through this right here on these forums with every Apple product launch.

It's always the same. In the weeks before the product launch, the rumors start flying. The new product will have a brand new design! It'll be thinner! Lighter! With twice the power! And there will be a price drop! And a spec bump across the line! The whole line-up will be updated! No, replaced! No, this is going to be the start of a brand new product category! Here are some product mockups. Here's what these could look like!

Then the discussion starts flying. "Here's what I'd like to see!" People start predicting entire product lines, including estimated pricing, and start drooling about how awesome it's all going to be.

Then the product announcement happens. It's a new version number with a reasonable spec bump. The form factor is the same as last year's model but the price drops slightly. It's a competitive upgrade, but nothing revolutionary.

And then the complaining starts... What happened to the revolutionary new design? What happened to the brand new product line? We're so disappointed!

Nothing "happened to it". You guys made it all up in the first place. There's no way those expectations could ever have been met.

Every. Single. Time.

Right, there were even "smart people" complaining where the holographic keyboard went (http://obamapacman.com/2011/08/iphone-5-virtual-keyboard-holographic-projector-concept-video/). :eek: Get real!

Greg.
Jan 26, 2013, 09:13 AM
Right...but you can get it published if you write your own blog and then other blogs that are more popular start taking your blog and using it as opinion or factual information.

That's the real issue is that the big sites are starting to take information from everywhere and not researching or validating it.

Another issue is Apple's poor guidance. They continued to blow past estimates and then finally the analysts were like..screw it..we'll adjust upwards..the issue is they now go too far up just like they underestimated before.

It's bewildering. Tim and his team work hard to (1) run the company so well and (2) give accurate sensible forcast figures, Apple announce results that pretty much exactly meet Tim's forecasts and what happens?

A bunch of analysts, rhymes with fantasists, make crap up and when the crap doesn't come true 'the market' responds to the crap and claim Apple is going down the pan.

It's the blind leading the blind out there in financial land. One clueless clown following the 'advice' of another.

You know what they say about careers. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach and those who can do ferck all become anal-ists.

----------



Based on the nonsensical made up 'projected' figures most of these anl-ists were touting it's pretty clear they are stupid, or up to something.

They're proabably all out there now, buying at 445, laughing.

Yeah this is the chart I was looking for. How can analysts get it right when Apple never used to give correct guidance? They then try and factor this into their models and Apple suddenly decides it's going to now give accurate guidance for once.

http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/screen-shot-2013-01-25-at-12-21-56-pm.png

And @My1stMacWasLisa, 'anal-ists'? - how creative of you. Good job.

turtle777
Jan 26, 2013, 09:20 AM
They're proabably all out there now, buying at 445, laughing.

So why aren't you doing the same ?

-t

kas23
Jan 26, 2013, 06:39 PM
Here, maybe you guys can understand this (also nowhere to be found on MRs):

http://www.businessinsider.com/annotaded-charts-why-apples-world-record-breaking-business-doesnt-impress-investors-2013-1?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Falleyinsider%2Fsilicon_alley_insider+%28Silicon+Alley+Insider%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

chagla
Jan 26, 2013, 07:22 PM
Stupid analyst, one of the reasons why the economy is so messed up, listening to these dummies.

short term memory eh? it was in fact some analyst just a few days ago when apple share was declining and right after his comments, share went up instantly. it hasn't been that long. google it.

it is OK for analysts to always say positive about apple, never negative. :confused:

charlituna
Jan 27, 2013, 11:12 AM
The analysts don't "cause" the stock to plummet, it's all the stupid traders selling the stock because it doesn't meet expectations.

Yes and no. The traders listen to the analysts and many of them are making wild guesses at what they think Apple will perform based on zero do knowledge about upcoming products, production line issues and so on.

Apple knows these things and based their numbers in that knowledge. So what the analysts really should be doing is asking if Apple can make their own estimate based on what is going on like product launches, new services etc.

But they just make up numbers that aren't likely to be met and the traders trust them and follow their 'didn't met expections' doom and gloom

----------

That's my one issue with Tim right now. Steve responded to BS if it threatened the company and came out like a lion.


Tim Cook is not Steve Jobs, he is not going to act like he is etc. mainly because folks would see right though it and see that 'he's just fronting like he's Steve,major lame'

And Tim did call out the analyst BS in the earnings call. It was brought up by several sites. He didn't cuss at them and tell them to **** or call out names but he did point it out in his own quieter style.

palmharbor
Jan 27, 2013, 11:21 AM
The stock market buyers and seller act on rumor...hyped opinions by big firms who have already sold short...its the home of "panic". At one time they loved MicroSoft and though Apple was just a computer used in schools and Ad agencies and there was no future for the firm. They also thought at one time
Sony was a great buy and would always do great things and the price of Sony was way pumped up. If you watched Cramer the Stock Guru on CNBC and bought on his tips you would have lost money each time. I did.
Larry Kudlow on CNBC who predicted the market was going to tank in December then in January and he of course was wrong both times.