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MacRumors
Jan 28, 2013, 08:32 AM
http://images.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/28/premeditated-flash-dump-of-apple-shares-behind-fridays-last-second-slump-says-trader/)


A blog entry (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/apples-flash-dump-last-second-trading-caught-tape) at Zero Hedge suggests that a deliberate share dump in the final second of trading may have been partly responsible for yet another drop in Apple's share price on Friday.

http://images.macrumors.com/article-new/2013/01/flashdump.gif
Zero Hedge cites several Nanex (http://www.nanex.net/) charts as evidence, observing that some 800,000 shares worth $350 million were traded in the final seconds of trading on Friday.Unlike traditional flash crashes where the trade is an HFT [high-frequency trading] error, or a few shares traded through the entire bid or offer stack, in this case it looks like a very premeditated unloading of some 800K shares (some $350 million worth) of AAPL in the last second, with the full knowledge it [would] shake the market.The move brought Apple's stock price down by approximately $5 in the waning seconds of the week's trading, where it sat throughout much of the after-hours trading period leading into the reopening of regular trading this morning. Apple's stock is down another $3.50 as trading opens today.

Article Link: 'Premeditated Flash Dump' of Apple Shares Behind Friday's Last-Second Slump, Says Trader (http://www.macrumors.com/2013/01/28/premeditated-flash-dump-of-apple-shares-behind-fridays-last-second-slump-says-trader/)



ArtOfWarfare
Jan 28, 2013, 08:35 AM
I'm glad I don't own any stocks... it just sounds too risky...

samcraig
Jan 28, 2013, 08:39 AM
..or the transaction just came in late. Who can say for sure. Maybe the order was put in earlier but was delayed or held.

I doubt there's any "conspiracy" here.

JaySoul
Jan 28, 2013, 08:40 AM
Didn't Apple already dump Flash?

hovscorpion12
Jan 28, 2013, 08:40 AM
This move is called shorting the stock. get owners scared, sell. Once the price gets to a designated spot, start buying again. Its extremely risky, but making making money on loss, priceless. Apple's stock is going to continue to fall to cover the gap. Apple could go bellow 400.00 by February. Apple is in trouble if it doesn not fix it this year. Apple can easily retake the market with a revampt IOS 7, iPhone, iPad and a new "special product."

fasterthanfiber
Jan 28, 2013, 08:42 AM
This move is called shorting the stock. get owners scared, sell. Once the price gets to a designated spot, start buying again. Its extremely risky, but making making money on loss, priceless. Apple's stock is going to continue to fall to cover the gap. Estimate price per share my Friday is below 400.00.


I can't see them going up to anywhere near where they are - if owners sold means they are at a loss - why would they rebuy? I can imagine this will trigger a mass-sell.

extricated
Jan 28, 2013, 08:48 AM
This move is called shorting the stock.

I up-voted your comment - not because I liked it, but because you nailed it.
Many people don't realize the type of "artificial" manipulation of the market that shareholders can weild.

I heard again on the news today about how Apple stock tanked last week because they fell short of analyst's predicted earnings - albeit with another record-breaking quarter?

CausticPuppy
Jan 28, 2013, 08:51 AM
If you look at the long term trend, 2012 looks like an anomaly.... right now the stock is back in line with the trend over the previous few years, maybe a tad below.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1359406800000&chddm=484840&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=eZAGUcjeLJP6lgPA-QE


Even right now, the stock price is still higher than it was 12 months ago. People who are investing long-term shouldn't be fazed.

ck2875
Jan 28, 2013, 08:53 AM
If they're just going to artificially manipulate the stock markets, shouldn't it be illegal for Analysts to have a stake in the companies they toy with? (I'm not just talking Apple here.)

Moopy Sac
Jan 28, 2013, 08:59 AM
This move is called shorting the stock. get owners scared, sell. Once the price gets to a designated spot, start buying again. Its extremely risky, but making making money on loss, priceless. Apple's stock is going to continue to fall to cover the gap. Apple could go bellow 400.00 by February. Apple is in trouble if it doesn not fix it this year. Apple can easily retake the market with a revampt IOS 7, iPhone, iPad and a new "special product."

Shorts are considered sales for calculating volume?

Rogifan
Jan 28, 2013, 09:00 AM
I can't see them going up to anywhere near where they are - if owners sold means they are at a loss - why would they rebuy? I can imagine this will trigger a mass-sell.

It's up almost 2% this morning. Is it normal for mega cap stocks like this to be so volatile?

Dan--
Jan 28, 2013, 09:06 AM
This move is called shorting the stock. get owners scared, sell. Once the price gets to a designated spot, start buying again. Its extremely risky, but making making money on loss, priceless. Apple's stock is going to continue to fall to cover the gap. Apple could go bellow 400.00 by February. Apple is in trouble if it doesn not fix it this year. Apple can easily retake the market with a revampt IOS 7, iPhone, iPad and a new "special product."

Ok, no one knows for sure where the price is headed, (especially not me) but as of right now, about 10:05 AM Monday, the stock is at 448.23 +8.35 (1.90%). It looks like they sold it around 443. So at this point, these folks are out a little over $4M.

Risky indeed.

hovscorpion12
Jan 28, 2013, 09:08 AM
Shorts are considered sales for calculating volume?

When an investor goes long on an investment, it means that he or she has bought a stock believing its price will rise in the future. Conversely, when an investor goes short, he or she is anticipating a decrease in share price.

Short selling is the selling of a stock that the seller doesn't own. More specifically, a short sale is the sale of a security that isn't owned by the seller, but that is promised to be delivered. That may sound confusing, but it's actually a simple concept.

when you short sell a stock, your broker will lend it to you. The stock will come from the brokerage's own inventory, from another one of the firm's customers, or from another brokerage firm. The shares are sold and the proceeds are credited to your account. Sooner or later, you must "close" the short by buying back the same number of shares (called covering) and returning them to your broker. If the price drops, you can buy back the stock at the lower price and make a profit on the difference. If the price of the stock rises, you have to buy it back at the higher price, and you lose money.

Anonymous Freak
Jan 28, 2013, 09:08 AM
I heard again on the news today about how Apple stock tanked last week because they fell short of analyst's predicted earnings - albeit with another record-breaking quarter?

Yup - how much of the loss was honest "fell short of analyst's predictions" reaction vs. how much was this flash dump? Most of the loss appeared in the last seconds of trading, which appears to be this flash dump. One would expect that any loss due to analyst statements would have occurred right after the earnings announcement.

everything-i
Jan 28, 2013, 09:11 AM
I up-voted your comment - not because I liked it, but because you nailed it.
Many people don't realize the type of "artificial" manipulation of the market that shareholders can weild.

I heard again on the news today about how Apple stock tanked last week because they fell short of analyst's predicted earnings - albeit with another record-breaking quarter?

Apple is a good buy at the moment based on the companies fundamentals. This dump was calculated to trigger a lot of automatic trading when peoples stop loss limits were hit. Big investors manipulating the market to pump some money out of the small investors. Nothing new, eventually it will settle down once all big investors think they have milked it enough.

184550
Jan 28, 2013, 09:29 AM
One of the more interesting articles I've read on MR lately. Hope there are more like this in the future now that another member of staff has been added.

J1989
Jan 28, 2013, 09:34 AM
I imagine it is not illegal for large funds to conspire to short a stock, but I wonder if reinstatement of the uptick rule would slow it down. The same with High Frequency Trading.

WhoDaKat
Jan 28, 2013, 09:40 AM
Some people need to do some research on High Frequency Trading. This isn't some investor, this is a huge faceless corporation purposefully trying to tank Apple's stock. Just wait. I've got a $1 that says Google is behind this.

moobatticus
Jan 28, 2013, 09:47 AM
I always find it amazing how easy it seems to be able to manipulate stock or even economies by talking them down. "Not innovating", "running out of ideas" - and so called analysts overestimating, so that even with record profits and new products (iPad Mini for example), they still manage to shake investors.

Still, can you imagine having bought APPL in 1996 and then selling in 2011?!

kas23
Jan 28, 2013, 09:58 AM
I'll buy some more Apple stock once it falls below $400. Shouldn't be too long now.

iMikeT
Jan 28, 2013, 10:03 AM
I saw this happen live on my AAPL chart last Friday and now I know the reason behind it. It didn't last for more than a couple of seconds where the price dropped ~$4.50/share then quickly climbed back.

Yes people, these things are easily manipulated by the big guys to make lots of money off much smaller investors.

----------

I'll buy some more Apple stock once it falls below $400. Shouldn't be too long now.


You'll be waiting longer than you thought as AAPL is back above $450 at the moment.

tatonka
Jan 28, 2013, 10:05 AM
It sure is time that this high frequency trading is somewhat regulated on a global level. After the 2008 crash, the banks are back up on top gambling with our money again, while average people are still suffering from the crisis. This sort of stock trading has nothing to do with evaluating the value of a company or its chances to prevail, it is simply playing odds of quickly shifting very large amounts of money forth and back.

johncrab
Jan 28, 2013, 10:14 AM
Apple is just Wall Street's latest cash cow. Here is how it works:

Big institutional investors get together in back rooms and choose companies they know are really solid and have profit in their future. They set irrationally high quarterly numbers or claim a company "did not exceed expectations by enough". They start a plunge by selling short a large block of shares to create panic. Then other companies and individuals panic (predictably) and dump their shares thinking the sky is falling. The share price plunges.

When the damage has been done and a share price has been devalued 20-30%, the big investors start buying back those shares. Momentum builds and drives the price back where it was and they make billions as the price rises, more than offsetting the short sell they used to start this march of the lemmings.

I watched Wall St do this to GE at 8 month intervals in the late 80's, working a 10 point drop then rise. GE killed this with repurchase programs but the same thing has happened to HP and Microsoft and other companies. It is extremely predictable once it starts but only the fat cats make the real money, basically by defrauding smaller investors by making them panic.

iMikeT
Jan 28, 2013, 10:47 AM
It sure is time that this high frequency trading is somewhat regulated on a global level. After the 2008 crash, the banks are back up on top gambling with our money again, while average people are still suffering from the crisis. This sort of stock trading has nothing to do with evaluating the value of a company or its chances to prevail, it is simply playing odds of quickly shifting very large amounts of money forth and back.

Apple is just Wall Street's latest cash cow. Here is how it works:

Big institutional investors get together in back rooms and choose companies they know are really solid and have profit in their future. They set irrationally high quarterly numbers or claim a company "did not exceed expectations by enough". They start a plunge by selling short a large block of shares to create panic. Then other companies and individuals panic (predictably) and dump their shares thinking the sky is falling. The share price plunges.

When the damage has been done and a share price has been devalued 20-30%, the big investors start buying back those shares. Momentum builds and drives the price back where it was and they make billions as the price rises, more than offsetting the short sell they used to start this march of the lemmings.

I watched Wall St do this to GE at 8 month intervals in the late 80's, working a 10 point drop then rise. GE killed this with repurchase programs but the same thing has happened to HP and Microsoft and other companies. It is extremely predictable once it starts but only the fat cats make the real money, basically by defrauding smaller investors by making them panic.



The only way to prevent the manipulation is with strong regulations. Of course that will never happen as politicians are in the back pockets of these Wall Street fat cats.

SnowLeopard2008
Jan 28, 2013, 11:08 AM
It's pretty obvious that Apple stock is severely undervalued right now and the main reason why it's so low is because of some Wall Street manipulation. Nothing new. This is what Wall Street does for a living.

aloshka
Jan 28, 2013, 11:20 AM
Oops. Sorry guys my bad. I accidentally hit the wrong button and sold my apple stock. Lol

Btw, apple dropped, but checkout google? Huge spike instead. It's slowly leveling off to where both have been, but interesting.

SmileyBlast!
Jan 28, 2013, 11:34 AM
It was probably Samsung, Microsoft or Google. They had probably bought those 800,000 share a few years back so they still made a profit while driving Apple's share price down.

Total speculation I know but probable no?

e-coli
Jan 28, 2013, 11:37 AM
All the traders and brokerage houses are simply tanking the stock so they can run it back up. What's going on couldn't be more transparent. It's absurd. Buy the stock. You'll be handsomely rewarded, as will those who are gaming this market.

aloshka
Jan 28, 2013, 11:38 AM
It was probably Samsung, Microsoft or Google. They had probably bought those 800,000 share a few years back so they still made a profit while driving Apple's share price down.

Total speculation I know but probable no?

Probable, except I don't think Microsoft would invest in Google. Samsung maybe, maybe even google themselves (not sure if that's legal).

The only thing weird, is the spike in google happened a day before the drop in Apple. Unless there is a market delay of some sort, that's a bit weird.

Dreamer2go
Jan 28, 2013, 11:49 AM
that's some nice economics lesson there...
Yeah, supply and demand. Thanks to all those "shortings", I have enough to buy a few more shares hehe.

As someone pointed out, it's all stock manipulation. Why would everyone panic when Apple just had a record quarter???

SteveW928
Jan 28, 2013, 11:53 AM
More evidence things in Vegas (I mean Wall Street) run off rumor more than financials.

Think about it.... why would the sale of a bunch of shares of stock affect the price? Because gamblers (I mean 'investors') are watching that kind of stuff rather than things which really matter, like how Apple is actually doing, their products, decisions, etc. Apple's REAL value didn't change before and after.

As long as this is what we call 'investing' things aren't going to turn around. I think we need to implement some controls on the system to turn it back to investment... like time based criteria to be eligible for the full value when selling. For example, you buy stock in a company and it's only worth 50% if you were to sell it again immediately. This then progresses to 100% over say 6 months or a year. That would get rid of day-trading and cause people to actually consider the COMPANY and their PERFORMANCE rather than trying to figure out what the HERD OF IRRATIONAL 'INVESTORS' might be up to.

aloshka
Jan 28, 2013, 12:00 PM
that's some nice economics lesson there...
Yeah, supply and demand. Thanks to all those "shortings", I have enough to buy a few more shares hehe.

As someone pointed out, it's all stock manipulation. Why would everyone panic when Apple just had a record quarter???

Mostly because I'm getting bored with everything Apple. iOS still looks identical as it did when it first launched. No personalization whatsoever. Mac hardware is still moving forward and is awesome, but the OS is still annoying for businesses. The biggest issue is why does it take 4-5 seconds to connect to a server and show it's contents. Windows is instant with SMB. Apple is even slow with AFP.

Anyway, not starting a flame war because this is completely my opinion and off topic.

----------

More evidence things in Vegas (I mean Wall Street) run off rumor more than financials.


As long as this is what we call 'investing' things aren't going to turn around. I think we need to implement some controls on the system to turn it back to investment... like time based criteria to be eligible for the full value when selling. For example, you buy stock in a company and it's only worth 50% if you were to sell it again immediately. This then progresses to 100% over say 6 months or a year. That would get rid of day-trading and cause people to actually consider the COMPANY and their PERFORMANCE rather than trying to figure out what the HERD OF IRRATIONAL 'INVESTORS' might be up to.

I wish I had the money to gamble. Sigh...

SmileyBlast!
Jan 28, 2013, 12:01 PM
No Growth Apple still worth $600 a share:
see this article (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1137041-no-growth-apple-is-worth-600-per-share).
Wall Street; Idiots!
:confused:

SteveW928
Jan 28, 2013, 12:17 PM
Mostly because I'm getting bored with everything Apple. iOS still looks identical as it did when it first launched. No personalization whatsoever. Mac hardware is still moving forward and is awesome, but the OS is still annoying for businesses. The biggest issue is why does it take 4-5 seconds to connect to a server and show it's contents. Windows is instant with SMB. Apple is even slow with AFP.

Getting bored, in that way, is more an emotional reaction, as was noted the record quarter (AGAIN, and AGAIN!). We've just become used to companies constantly hitting the market with new stuff and designs. However, IMO, that's part of the problem... and I hope Apple doesn't fall into it.

Especially where UI is concerned, if it ain't broke, don't 'fix' it! There are many areas where iOS needs fixing, but it isn't in slapping on some new 'look' every so often. I suppose there is some segment of the market that has nothing better to do than customize the UI, but it isn't necessarily a good thing for productivity or really getting things done.

Lately, though, Apple has seemed to fall for making silly UI moves, especially on OSX. I'm a bit worried about Apple long-term, however it isn't really for any of the reasons the 'experts' are worried about or why the stock price has been falling.

re: OSX and networking - Yes, I'd agree that networking, aside from ease of use, has been a long-term sore spot for OSX. And, some of Apple's moves recently in Lion and Mt. Lion have been horribly bad for business... even sectors that were traditional Apple strong-holds. (ex: the whole 'save as' mess) THAT is the kind of thing, along with Apple's neglecting of the Pro market that is getting me worried (among other things).

SockRolid
Jan 28, 2013, 12:20 PM
Apple is just Wall Street's latest cash cow. Here is how it works: [...]

Perfect summary. Thanks for that!

HiRez
Jan 28, 2013, 12:21 PM
Banning stock shorting would remove the incentive for driving a company's stock price down (by planting "sky is falling articles", or flash dumping, for example), no?

aloshka
Jan 28, 2013, 12:27 PM
Getting bored, in that way, is more an emotional reaction, as was noted the record quarter (AGAIN, and AGAIN!). We've just become used to companies constantly hitting the market with new stuff and designs. However, IMO, that's part of the problem... and I hope Apple doesn't fall into it.

Especially where UI is concerned, if it ain't broke, don't 'fix' it! There are many areas where iOS needs fixing, but it isn't in slapping on some new 'look' every so often. I suppose there is some segment of the market that has nothing better to do than customize the UI, but it isn't necessarily a good thing for productivity or really getting things done.

Lately, though, Apple has seemed to fall for making silly UI moves, especially on OSX. I'm a bit worried about Apple long-term, however it isn't really for any of the reasons the 'experts' are worried about or why the stock price has been falling.

re: OSX and networking - Yes, I'd agree that networking, aside from ease of use, has been a long-term sore spot for OSX. And, some of Apple's moves recently in Lion and Mt. Lion have been horribly bad for business... even sectors that were traditional Apple strong-holds. (ex: the whole 'save as' mess) THAT is the kind of thing, along with Apple's neglecting of the Pro market that is getting me worried (among other things).

I definitely agree with you a 100%. I'm just wondering if Apple wows the world every release but soon will run out of things to wow us. They really have us becoming numb to the new standards. In a sense it's a good thing they try to space out releases a little. But at the same time, you are right. iPhone 5 came out, not much different but I jumped on it right away because it's lighter. That's all they had to do to win me over.

I really wish they would fix the networking issues, but to be honest, I deploy a lot of macs for our creative staff and they are kind of used to the annoying network issues. I haven't really had any complaints except the ones that come from windows.

carlgo
Jan 28, 2013, 12:40 PM
What Apple needs to do is arrange for some horse's heads to appear in the beds of some Wall Street executives.

SteveW928
Jan 28, 2013, 12:47 PM
I definitely agree with you a 100%. I'm just wondering if Apple wows the world every release but soon will run out of things to wow us. They really have us becoming numb to the new standards. In a sense it's a good thing they try to space out releases a little. But at the same time, you are right. iPhone 5 came out, not much different but I jumped on it right away because it's lighter. That's all they had to do to win me over.

I really wish they would fix the networking issues, but to be honest, I deploy a lot of macs for our creative staff and they are kind of used to the annoying network issues. I haven't really had any complaints except the ones that come from windows.

At this point, I'm guessing the 'WOW' will have to come in some other market. I'm not sure what Apple (or any other company) would really do right not to WOW the phone market. Apple pretty much did that already, and it will take some MAJOR thing to do it again. Smaller, lighter, faster, incremental improvements... sure. WOW, I'm not seeing it at this point.

But, what these 'investors' and 'experts' keep missing is that Apple isn't a phone company. The WOW will likely come in some other area, some time down the road. But, so long as Apple just keeps stable sales, profits, and growth... they *SHOULD* be a good stock value. The fact that they may not be suggest stock manipulation, irrationality, or something broken in the investment community... not something wrong with Apple.

I'm with you on the networking stuff. Apple actually has a number of core areas where little things have been a bit broken for a LONG time. Wifi has always been a trouble spot on and off for some users. The 'cloud' stuff has been working well for me, so far (knock on wood), but has been a huge problem point for a long time as well (long before iCloud). That said, I guess if you're an average user (as opposed to tech support... which I was too), you connect to a network drive at the start of the day. If it takes a few seconds, no big deal. For people who use networks in other ways, it is a pain for sure. (Mt. Lion seems WAY better for me between my home devices, but I haven't really tried it out on bigger networks, so I can't speak to that.)

----------

What Apple needs to do is arrange for some horse's heads to appear in the beds of some Wall Street executives.

As someone noted earlier, this problem is way bigger than Apple. Apple is just the latest victim. It's just a smaller-scale 'smash and grab' by those powerful to set it all up. The bigger scale ones were the tech-bubble of the late 90s and the more recent housing-bubble. Go watch "Inside Job" (documentary) some day if you want to get your blood boiling. The 99% stuff has kind of degraded into a joke, but many of the core concepts and corruption they are against are absolutely correct.

bassfingers
Jan 28, 2013, 12:55 PM
More evidence things in Vegas (I mean Wall Street) run off rumor more than financials.

Think about it.... why would the sale of a bunch of shares of stock affect the price? Because gamblers (I mean 'investors') are watching that kind of stuff rather than things which really matter, like how Apple is actually doing, their products, decisions, etc. Apple's REAL value didn't change before and after.

As long as this is what we call 'investing' things aren't going to turn around. I think we need to implement some controls on the system to turn it back to investment... like time based criteria to be eligible for the full value when selling. For example, you buy stock in a company and it's only worth 50% if you were to sell it again immediately. This then progresses to 100% over say 6 months or a year. That would get rid of day-trading and cause people to actually consider the COMPANY and their PERFORMANCE rather than trying to figure out what the HERD OF IRRATIONAL 'INVESTORS' might be up to.

Haha, wow.

That sort of regulation is not the role of government in the least. If I want to buy something today and sell it today, I should have the freedom to do that. There is nothing immoral about that. I am not imposing myself on anyone else's rights.

Your suggestion sounds great, until you "invest" in a high-risk high-reward startup. Suppose you find out a month later you had better sell: but nope, thanks to your regulations, you have two choices 1. Sell at 50% or 2. Watch your investment ride its way to the bottom for 6 months. Thanks to you, less people put their money on the line.

Anytime you impose arbitrary legislation that widely overreaches the role of government, there are going to be more unexpected consequences than anticipated benefits.

If you feel Wall Street is too risky, you can always choose to invest elsewhere. That's the beauty of a free market.

aloshka
Jan 28, 2013, 01:11 PM
Mac PRO would be nice. Or at least some mid-range tower of apple. I don't want a damn iMAC. I want a multi-screen mac machine that has a 3770 (same specs as an imac) but real video card.

baryon
Jan 28, 2013, 01:47 PM
I understand nothing of the stock market, but I still say that it's a silly thing and it should not exist. Those people at stock exchanges just don't seem like intelligent, reliable and healthy people, yet they rule the world. I really can't say this based on any facts, it's just my un-educated impression :D

SteveW928
Jan 28, 2013, 02:36 PM
Haha, wow.

That sort of regulation is not the role of government in the least. If I want to buy something today and sell it today, I should have the freedom to do that. There is nothing immoral about that. I am not imposing myself on anyone else's rights.

Your suggestion sounds great, until you "invest" in a high-risk high-reward startup. Suppose you find out a month later you had better sell: but nope, thanks to your regulations, you have two choices 1. Sell at 50% or 2. Watch your investment ride its way to the bottom for 6 months. Thanks to you, less people put their money on the line.

Anytime you impose arbitrary legislation that widely overreaches the role of government, there are going to be more unexpected consequences than anticipated benefits.

If you feel Wall Street is too risky, you can always choose to invest elsewhere. That's the beauty of a free market.

So, who's role is it then? Oh, I forget, the magic of the market will overcome human depravity, right? For capitalism to function properly, there needs to be a FREE market. Note: Laissez-faire does not equal free, unless all decisions are rational and no-one cheats in any way.

I might be incorrect on the regulation I proposed (I haven't spent a ton of time trying to think the implications through.... or, maybe a shorter or longer time-frame, etc.), however, I'm not incorrect in identifying a problem which needs SOME kind of regulation to address.

Also, for me this isn't about investment. This is about a company I love and our whole economic foundation of our society. The former is being harmed by stupidity and greed, the latter is in great threat of utter collapse. If it were as simple as moving one's investments to a less-insane system (should one exist), I wouldn't even have bothered commenting here!

kas23
Jan 28, 2013, 02:42 PM
You'll be waiting longer than you thought as AAPL is back above $450 at the moment.

In shouldn't be too long now, I actually meant in the next 6 months. This stock isn't going to make up any appreciable ground (will lose ground in fact) until the next iPhone/iPad release. It even took a dive on record earnings, can't imagine what's it going to do during this quarter (actually, I can).

Ryth
Jan 28, 2013, 03:56 PM
Apple is just Wall Street's latest cash cow. Here is how it works:

Big institutional investors get together in back rooms and choose companies they know are really solid and have profit in their future. They set irrationally high quarterly numbers or claim a company "did not exceed expectations by enough". They start a plunge by selling short a large block of shares to create panic. Then other companies and individuals panic (predictably) and dump their shares thinking the sky is falling. The share price plunges.

When the damage has been done and a share price has been devalued 20-30%, the big investors start buying back those shares. Momentum builds and drives the price back where it was and they make billions as the price rises, more than offsetting the short sell they used to start this march of the lemmings.

I watched Wall St do this to GE at 8 month intervals in the late 80's, working a 10 point drop then rise. GE killed this with repurchase programs but the same thing has happened to HP and Microsoft and other companies. It is extremely predictable once it starts but only the fat cats make the real money, basically by defrauding smaller investors by making them panic.

Which is why many people suggested Apple repurchase about 20+ billion of it when it happened last week.

----------

In shouldn't be too long now, I actually meant in the next 6 months. This stock isn't going to make up any appreciable ground (will lose ground in fact) until the next iPhone/iPad release. It even took a dive on record earnings, can't imagine what's it going to do during this quarter (actually, I can).

There's lots of signs (and there are as always) that the stock was as usual manipulated and certain trades were executed on purpose to tank the stock (Flash at end of last friday in the last second).

And as usual on Monday...a slew of positive news articles from traders, hedge funds and sites citing new product lines and areas where they can grow, etc.

please22
Jan 28, 2013, 04:18 PM
Has no one really read ZH new posts that points to weakness in Apple's cash balance? Weakness due to lack of information, the kind of thing institutional investors are risk adverse to?

kas23
Jan 28, 2013, 04:44 PM
There's lots of signs (and there are as always) that the stock was as usual manipulated and certain trades were executed on purpose to tank the stock (Flash at end of last friday in the last second).


Those small fluctuations may be due to manipulations, but the dive from $700 to where we are today is not. The stock is more appropriately priced now because Apple is no longer in an exponential growth period, which is fine for the company, but not for investors. What we see today will be the new norm unless Apple finds a new cash cow. The iPhone and iPad profits will keep it priced 400-500, but they'll need a new product line to push it higher. Based on the lack of leaked parts (which is also Apple's new norm), this product isn't coming any time soon.

Solomani
Jan 28, 2013, 04:49 PM
Some people need to do some research on High Frequency Trading. This isn't some investor, this is a huge faceless corporation purposefully trying to tank Apple's stock. Just wait. I've got a $1 that says Google is behind this.

There are only a few Apple rivals who have so much money to "play with" in order to harm AAPL stock performance. Most likely they are agents of Google or Samsung. Or it could be the Gnomes of Zurich.

SteveW928
Jan 28, 2013, 05:58 PM
Those small fluctuations may be due to manipulations, but the dive from $700 to where we are today is not. The stock is more appropriately priced now because Apple is no longer in an exponential growth period, which is fine for the company, but not for investors. What we see today will be the new norm unless Apple finds a new cash cow. The iPhone and iPad profits will keep it priced 400-500, but they'll need a new product line to push it higher. Based on the lack of leaked parts (which is also Apple's new norm), this product isn't coming any time soon.

I'm not really a stock guy... and I'm no economics expert (though I did complete a Master's level economics seminar as part of my degree). But, can you, then, please explain what has changed? Maybe they were overpriced at 700, but then the question I'd ask is how they got to 700. Stock valuation should be based on *something*, right? So, either the current number is based on fluff, or the 700 was... as Apple has only done better and better ever since.

In other words, the iPad and iPhone ARE STILL their cash cow, and given Apple's history, there is little reason to believe there won't be another one to follow. So, I guess I'm wondering what has changed to drive the stock down. Are people believing the silliness about Samsung and others eroding Apple's domination? Did people believe the false rumors about part order cuts? Do people think Jobs was the only innovative person at Apple? Do people think Apple is a phone company? Something just isn't adding up here (if one were to assume 'investors' are rational... not an assumption I'd make, but for the sake of argument.)

Mums
Jan 29, 2013, 02:31 AM
I got issued warnings by MacRumors moderators for posting my suspicions about Apple stock manipulation back when it was being artificially bloated. Now they run articles on premeditated flash dumps - Isn't that manipulation?

I now make another prediction: MacRumors' readership is going to plummet due to Apple's decreasing appeal as a company.

M-O
Jan 29, 2013, 07:04 AM
This move is called shorting the stock. get owners scared, sell. Once the price gets to a designated spot, start buying again. Its extremely risky, but making making money on loss, priceless. Apple's stock is going to continue to fall to cover the gap. Apple could go bellow 400.00 by February. Apple is in trouble if it doesn not fix it this year. Apple can easily retake the market with a revampt IOS 7, iPhone, iPad and a new "special product."

this has very little to do with apple.

pizz
Jan 29, 2013, 09:44 AM
Not suprising, bad earnings report, stock was overtopped. They need to tap into the spirit of Steve and innovate again then they can keep the gains going.

pizz
Jan 29, 2013, 10:08 AM
I'll buy some more Apple stock once it falls below $400. Shouldn't be too long now.

I agree, if they wow everyone on the iOS 7.

aliensporebomb
Jan 29, 2013, 11:08 AM
I'm glad I don't own any stocks... it just sounds too risky...

Take it from someone who worked in I.T. for a Fortune 100 brokerage: stock trading is basically gambling, except they all wear suits and ties.

ArtOfWarfare
Jan 29, 2013, 11:14 AM
Take it from someone who worked in I.T. for a Fortune 100 brokerage: stock trading is basically gambling, except they all wear suits and ties.

I'm not the most knowledgable person on the subject, but I believe there is a key difference between the two - there's no house. No house means there's no guaranteed winner which means the odds of ordinary people like us winning are a good deal better if we're playing with stocks instead of gambling.

SteveW928
Jan 29, 2013, 11:19 AM
I'm not the most knowledgable person on the subject, but I believe there is a key difference between the two - there's no house. No house means there's no guaranteed winner which means the odds of ordinary people like us winning are a good deal better if we're playing with stocks instead of gambling.

Except that there IS a house, of sorts... that is what this article is about.

Marjamrob1
Jan 29, 2013, 11:19 AM
They will just drive it up in a few weeks, and make a few million... Welcome to Wall Street!

pizz
Jan 29, 2013, 11:44 AM
I'm glad I don't own any stocks... it just sounds too risky...

its riskier keeping your money in a bank account earning only 0.3%

----------

Take it from someone who worked in I.T. for a Fortune 100 brokerage: stock trading is basically gambling, except they all wear suits and ties.

If you dont know what youre doing then yeah

SteveW928
Jan 29, 2013, 12:52 PM
If you dont know what youre doing then yeah

I think you've highlighted the problem. There shouldn't be much to "knowing what you're doing." Find a company that is solid in what they are doing and is likely to continue to generate a profit and INVEST. If it's more complicated than that, it is illustrative to the GAMBLING going on, rather than INVESTMENT.

I think many of you are missing the big picture that investment *should be* a two-way street, not a get-rich-quick game for day-traders. Apple is controlled by the idiocy going on with their stock. They can only ignore it so long, and then they will have to make stupid, short-term moves to satisfy the idiots rather than what is really good for the company.

Sure, a few who, as you say, "know what they are doing" will make some money, while hurting the companies they are gaming with, essentially sawing off the branch under their feet. Unless they have an escape plan, even the rich are eventually not going to be very happy when it all grinds to a halt.

Keerock
Jan 29, 2013, 01:08 PM
Didn't Apple already dump Flash?

Quick. Very quick.

macs4nw
Jan 29, 2013, 02:21 PM
Apple is just Wall Street's latest cash cow. Here is how it works:

Big institutional investors get together in back rooms and choose companies they know are really solid and have profit in their future. They set irrationally high quarterly numbers or claim a company "did not exceed expectations by enough". They start a plunge by selling short a large block of shares to create panic. Then other companies and individuals panic (predictably) and dump their shares thinking the sky is falling. The share price plunges.

When the damage has been done and a share price has been devalued 20-30%, the big investors start buying back those shares. Momentum builds and drives the price back where it was and they make billions as the price rises, more than offsetting the short sell they used to start this march of the lemmings.

I watched Wall St do this to GE at 8 month intervals in the late 80's, working a 10 point drop then rise. GE killed this with repurchase programs but the same thing has happened to HP and Microsoft and other companies. It is extremely predictable once it starts but only the fat cats make the real money, basically by defrauding smaller investors by making them panic.

Thanks for that insight. Proves that if there is a way to make more money, while doing even less, people will find it. This kind of conduct is not only immoral and unconscionable, but gives a whole new meaning to the concept of manipulation. It amounts to 'legal' grand theft. Not sure how, or even if, this could be made illegal. :mad:

DMH3006
Jan 29, 2013, 02:43 PM
Not suprising, bad earnings report, stock was overtopped. They need to tap into the spirit of Steve and innovate again then they can keep the gains going.

It was the best report ever in the history of the company, how can it be a bad earnings report?

"People"(the analysts) simple throw some number in the air and boom,if it hits its good if nots its bad,if they predict apple will sell 100 million iphones in a quarter and they obviously didn't reach it the news will be that it missed the analysts predictions,its just mind boggling,most people know that the kind of growth Apple had wasn't sustainable for the long-term,it gets to a point where its just too big to keep growing at that pace.

Rogifan
Jan 29, 2013, 04:18 PM
And today Amazon basically misses on almost every metric and yet their stock is up over 8% in after hours trading. They missed analyst consensus on EPS, revenue and net income and yet they're way up after hours. :rolleyes:

kas23
Jan 29, 2013, 04:48 PM
I agree, if they wow everyone on the iOS 7.

An iOS release isn't going to bring stock prices up. Possibly deflate it a bit.

SteveW928
Jan 29, 2013, 07:11 PM
its just mind boggling,most people know that the kind of growth Apple had wasn't sustainable for the long-term,it gets to a point where its just too big to keep growing at that pace.

I think they are still growing at a pretty rapid pace, but you make a good point. That kind of growth, at least for one product or sector can't keep going forever. It shouldn't have to. What *should* be important is that they continue to be profitable at some reasonable level.

However, as I noted, this isn't really INVESTMENT any longer. If Apple doesn't grow at some pace that keeps them happy, they will simply move on to something else they think will. To some extent, that is understandable. People want to put their money where they think they will get the most in return. However, the modern stock market takes that to absurd levels, where, as I said, it is no longer investment. The companies are harmed. The customers are harmed. The economy is harmed. The only winners are those who happen to make the right moves, or those who are manipulating the market to their gain.

I'm not sure what the fix needs to be, but there needs to be a fix. If not, the game will eventually end. That won't be a pretty picture for anyone.

SeattleMoose
Jan 29, 2013, 11:49 PM
No manipulation here folks...move along :eek:

flux73
Jan 30, 2013, 12:22 AM
And today Amazon basically misses on almost every metric and yet their stock is up over 8% in after hours trading. They missed analyst consensus on EPS, revenue and net income and yet they're way up after hours. :rolleyes:
Their margins increased. I think it was thought that was evidence that their Kindles were gaining traction since media consumption would increase their margins. But I'm wondering how much more a retailer can increase their margins. Amazon's due for a fall eventually, but it looks like it won't be today.

DMH3006
Jan 30, 2013, 04:24 AM
Their margins increased. I think it was thought that was evidence that their Kindles were gaining traction since media consumption would increase their margins. But I'm wondering how much more a retailer can increase their margins. Amazon's due for a fall eventually, but it looks like it won't be today.

I don't think Apple's margin can increase much more,I mean they account for some 70%/80% of profits on the smartphone industry,the tablet industry is basically theirs in terms of profits and im sure their margins in everything else are pretty high too.

pizz
Jan 30, 2013, 09:00 AM
It was the best report ever in the history of the company, how can it be a bad earnings report?

"People"(the analysts) simple throw some number in the air and boom,if it hits its good if nots its bad,if they predict apple will sell 100 million iphones in a quarter and they obviously didn't reach it the news will be that it missed the analysts predictions,its just mind boggling,most people know that the kind of growth Apple had wasn't sustainable for the long-term,it gets to a point where its just too big to keep growing at that pace.

Most of the explosive growth in apple happened around the innovations of the ipod, iphone, ipad. To grow they need to expand beyond that. Apple showerheads maybe?

flux73
Jan 30, 2013, 01:25 PM
I don't think Apple's margin can increase much more,I mean they account for some 70%/80% of profits on the smartphone industry,the tablet industry is basically theirs in terms of profits and im sure their margins in everything else are pretty high too.Maybe, but I was talking about Amazon's margins - how much can they increase? The investors obviously think quite a bit with a P/E ratio of infinity. SMH.

And I think Apple's margin CAN increase. I think one strategy would be to split the iPhone lines into a less expensive plastic model and a high end (high margin) pricey model. The plastic model might be able to maintain margins with the lower price. Or only have a slight decrease which would be more than made up for by the huge increase in volume. The high end model would then increase the margins - you know there would be more than enough buyers of the high end model.

Apple's margins can also increase if they ever make that leap into fab. I'll wait here for the inevitable protests of this strategy. :p

From A Buick 8
Jan 30, 2013, 02:03 PM
Most of the explosive growth in apple happened around the innovations of the ipod, iphone, ipad. To grow they need to expand beyond that. Apple showerheads maybe?

"Apple showerheads " Im in, can i pre-order.

Invest long term, have a diversified portfolio. Takes a good chunk of the risk out.

RSL
Jan 31, 2013, 12:44 AM
The only way to prevent the manipulation is with strong regulations. Of course that will never happen as politicians are in the back pockets of these Wall Street fat cats.

If investors are fooled by the ploy, then they aren't properly investing. Stocks go up and down, that's the way it is. Regulation is needed to prevent the entire stock market from tanking, not to prevent people with money from playing around with a particular stock.