PDA

View Full Version : Apple grabs 6.6% market share of U.S. personal computer reta...


MacBytes
Oct 11, 2005, 12:31 PM
http://www.macbytes.com/images/bytessig.gif (http://www.macbytes.com)

Category: News and Press Releases
Link: Apple grabs 6.6% market share of U.S. personal computer retail market through August (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20051011133130)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

orion123
Oct 11, 2005, 12:50 PM
You've got to be kidding. That's an amazing number. At first I though back-to-school school district buying would cause that bump (Apple being slightly stronger there than the norm), but I assume "retail sales" don't include the education channel. Today's quartely results call should be veeerrry interesting.

To think, the Mac media was talking about 10% as some magic far off dream number just a few months ago.

kiwi-in-uk
Oct 11, 2005, 12:51 PM
This is for retail sales only - from the article:

"Through August, Apple's share of the U.S. retail market for computers, excluding online sales, grew to 6.6% from 4.3% in the same period last year, according to market researcher NPD Group."

I wonder what the online sales market share is.
Does anybody here know?

wordmunger
Oct 11, 2005, 12:54 PM
I wonder what the online sales market share is.
Does anybody here know?

I don't know -- but Dell does a heckuva lot of online selling. It might be lower when you take that into account.

iJon
Oct 11, 2005, 12:57 PM
I'm getting a little worried with these analysts talking about video iPods tomorrow. Since ThinkSecret is hardly ever wrong, chances are we won't see video iPods and my stock might show the results when all these analysts are disappointed with tomorrow, although the numbers tonight should excite them.

jon

eva01
Oct 11, 2005, 12:59 PM
I don't know -- but Dell does a heckuva lot of online selling. It might be lower when you take that into account.

yeah i heard from someone at a ciruit city that dell doesn't let stores sell there stuff in the store. That dell only sells online or something. At least that was the crap he gave me when i asked where the dell monitors were

wordmunger
Oct 11, 2005, 01:02 PM
the numbers tonight should excite them.

The numbers tonight will excite them only if they exceed what all they analysts are already predicting. Apple could have record breaking profits, but if they're less than the $1.3 bil already predicted, the stock will go down.

nagromme
Oct 11, 2005, 01:05 PM
Dell does a heckuva lot of online selling. It might be lower when you take that into account.
True--but whatever that 6.6 measures is still an INCREASE of over 50% over the same measurement last year.

That's not bad, considering Mac sales were predicted by ENDLESS fools (OK, me included :p ) to tank until Intel models emerged.

iJon
Oct 11, 2005, 01:07 PM
yeah i heard from someone at a ciruit city that dell doesn't let stores sell there stuff in the store. That dell only sells online or something. At least that was the crap he gave me when i asked where the dell monitors were
That crap is indeed true. There are rare occasions where Dell will setup a kiosk at various places, usually malls from what I've heard.

jon

gekko513
Oct 11, 2005, 01:07 PM
The numbers tonight will excite them only if they exceed what all they analysts are already predicting. Apple could have record breaking profits, but if they're less than the $1.3 bil already predicted, the stock will go down.
That seems to have been the norm. I've not followed this very closely, but I remember comments like, no matter how much profit Apple reports the stock always goes down after an earnings report.

nagromme
Oct 11, 2005, 01:14 PM
Also, it's a 6.6% a lot of other PC makers would kill to have.

Now think of the numbers when 10.5 Leopard is shipping on well-established Intel Macs...

wordmunger
Oct 11, 2005, 01:16 PM
That's not bad, considering Mac sales were predicted by ENDLESS fools (OK, me included :p ) to tank until Intel models emerged.

True, indeed. However, if the transition to Intel is not smoother than most of the recent transitions (PPC, Mac OS X), then sales may well tank AFTER the Intel models emerge.

digitalbiker
Oct 11, 2005, 01:16 PM
True--but whatever that 6.6 measures is still an INCREASE of over 50% over the same measurement last year.

That's not bad, considering Mac sales were predicted by ENDLESS fools (OK, me included :p ) to tank until Intel models emerged.

Which means one of two things;

either People are snatching up the last PPC macs because they are worried about Intel macs

or People are completely oblivious to the transition. Duh, what's a CPU? Is it important?

BornAgainMac
Oct 11, 2005, 01:19 PM
I bet it is higher this time next year.

AoWolf
Oct 11, 2005, 01:21 PM
Ill be happy when we over take linux again...

longofest
Oct 11, 2005, 01:21 PM
Excellent. 93.4% to go...

In all seriousness, definitely encouraging, and I'm sure that online sales have a similar shape to them. We'll find out in a few hours.

dizastor
Oct 11, 2005, 01:21 PM
I bet it is higher this time next year.

Nano is on the road to turning this halo effect into a mushroom cloud.

AoWolf
Oct 11, 2005, 01:23 PM
Which means one of two things;

either People are snatching up the last PPC macs because they are worried about Intel macs

or People are completely oblivious to the transition. Duh, what's a CPU? Is it important?

I would guess the later as a prank me and one of my more immature nerd friends would ask other high schoolers if they had D.I.C.K. drive on their computer. Most said they thought they did.

dizastor
Oct 11, 2005, 01:23 PM
Ill be happy when we over take linux again...


Linux sells computers? Since when??

Seriously though, these numbers are based on companies i.e. Dell, HP, Apple etc. not operating system.

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 01:27 PM
The numbers tonight will excite them only if they exceed what all they analysts are already predicting. Apple could have record breaking profits, but if they're less than the $1.3 bil already predicted, the stock will go down.

AAPL is already down 10% over the last few days, for no other obvious reason than the overall market is down, even with forecasts like this:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/10/technology/apple_preview/index.htm?section=money_latest

These market share numbers should help, and if they blow away expectations again, as some predict, that 10% should be tacked right back on, and maybe a bit more. But any hint of lower margins or smaller sales growth, then watch out below.

liketom
Oct 11, 2005, 01:27 PM
well , 2hours 32 min to find out .

is it a video webcast tonight or audio only ? 10pm UK time i thinks

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 01:28 PM
True--but whatever that 6.6 measures is still an INCREASE of over 50% over the same measurement last year.

That's not bad, considering Mac sales were predicted by ENDLESS fools (OK, me included :p ) to tank until Intel models emerged.
Fear not. You're not alone. If they announce new PMs or PBs tomorrow (or today) that can only help sales numbers. :D

nagromme
Oct 11, 2005, 01:28 PM
But the number does apply to Mac OS X. All of those Macs run OS X, and no other computers sold do.

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 01:30 PM
AAPL is already down 10% over the last few days, for no other obvious reason than the overall market is down.
Yeah, but AAPL is up about 2% alone today (and was up about 3% at one point today).

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 01:33 PM
well , 2hours 32 min to find out .

is it a video webcast tonight or audio only ? 10pm UK time i thinks
Audio only ... AudioWebcast Q4 '05 Financial Results (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq405/) 2 pm PDT 4pm CDT 5pm EDT.

zelmo
Oct 11, 2005, 01:34 PM
But the number does apply to Mac OS X. All of those Macs run OS X, and no other computers sold do.

True. With Apple, it doesn't matter whether you're talking about the hardware or the OS. The percentage is the same, at least until they officially release Mac OS X for any x86. ;)

As long as the data is based on the same info, growth from 4.3% to 6.6% in a single year is just phenomenal, over 50%. Unless they implode (not out of the question), they'll hit 10% by the time the Intel switch is complete.

maddav
Oct 11, 2005, 01:35 PM
Like most shares, once the figures are announced they shoot up, then fall super quick as everyone sells their shares at the same time. As long as you're in a decent market waiting about a fortnight or two sees the shares rise (or at least level off)

6.6% is very encouraging! It's another 2.3% that the "PC" makers won't get :D

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 01:36 PM
Yeah, but AAPL is up about 2% alone today (and was up about 3% at one point today).

Around $51.50 today is good, but still a long way off their recent high, which I believe was very close to $55 about a week ago.

rtdunham
Oct 11, 2005, 01:38 PM
it's worth noting how big an increase that really is: you determine that by subtracting 4.3 from 6.6, teh difference--or increase--is 2.3, you then divide that by 4.3 and find that it represents a 54% increase in apple's market share. that's phenomenal in one year. Projected (and i know that's a risky proposition) that rate of increase would put apple's market share at (6.6 x 1.54) at close to 10.2% just a year from now. So it is an important number. All of which makes the numbers apple reveals today especially interesting, and the products it announces tomorrow especially pertinent.
terry

wordmunger
Oct 11, 2005, 01:38 PM
As long as the data is based on the same info, growth from 4.3% to 6.6% in a single year is just phenomenal, over 50%. Unless they implode (not out of the question), they'll hit 10% by the time the Intel switch is complete.

I hope they don't go much higher than 10 percent. That, to me, is a sweet spot, where software developers will see the value in developing more Mac titles. If they go higher, we'll see more viruses aimed at Apple, more bloatware, fewer informed users.

jeffy.dee-lux
Oct 11, 2005, 01:40 PM
i was actually just thinking of posting a thread on this. I was thinking that market share might be going up. From my own little perspective, i was seeing that 3 of my closer friends made the switch this summer, with another one having decided to in the near future. These were the first times i can remember _any_ of my friends switching to macs and now its all happening at once. My girlfriend just bought a powerbook and her dad a couple months ago. Its just one random sampling, but in my little world, mac sales just exploded. Good to see its happening elsewhere as well.

Steamboatwillie
Oct 11, 2005, 01:41 PM
The numbers tonight will excite them only if they exceed what all they analysts are already predicting. Apple could have record breaking profits, but if they're less than the $1.3 bil already predicted, the stock will go down.

That is so true. I hate that crap. :mad:

eva01
Oct 11, 2005, 01:41 PM
That crap is indeed true. There are rare occasions where Dell will setup a kiosk at various places, usually malls from what I've heard.

jon

ah thanks jon for the information i was just unsure about it, didn't know if he meant all dell products or just the displays

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 01:42 PM
Around $51.50 today is good, but still a long way off their recent high, which I believe was very close to $55 about a week ago.
True, but Apple, like most companies, moves with the market also, and the markets have been getting hammered in the past couple of weeks. I'd say Apple is doing quite well as a whole. As much as we'd all like to have numbers on stocks always rise, it will never happen (though it looked that way with stocks like CMGI and others during the NASDAQ boom).

maveness
Oct 11, 2005, 01:48 PM
Audio only ... AudioWebcast Q4 '05 Financial Results (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq405/) 2 pm PDT 4pm CDT 5pm EDT.

I keep getting a Page Not Found result for this. I've contacted Investor Relations and they claim it works just fine for them. I've cleared my cache and refreshed the page to no avail.

Anyone else having a problem?

Super Dave
Oct 11, 2005, 01:49 PM
I'm getting a little worried with these analysts talking about video iPods tomorrow. Since ThinkSecret is hardly ever wrong, chances are we won't see video iPods and my stock might show the results when all these analysts are disappointed with tomorrow, although the numbers tonight should excite them.

jon

I totally agree with you Jon, that ThinkSecret is always right. Even MacRumors seems to be scared to take a stand against their predictions. But I will, this time. They may be right that there is no video iPod, but they are certainly missing something suggesting that the event is just for Macs.

Firstly:
http://www.rodgerson.ca/onemorething.jpg

Curtains do not imply minor or major Mac upgrades. If they imply anything it has to do with movies.

Secondly:

Apple does not do major press events for speed bumps, minor innovations, lame new products, or anything but amazing and revolutionary new products.

Thirdly:

None of the international iTunes Music Stores have been updated today, which can and has historically only meant:
1. iPod product that is related to the music store to be introduced.
2. New "exclusive" artist to the Music store, Beatles perhaps?
3. Some sort of video product other than the iPod but that interfaces with the iTunes Music Store.

Fourthly:

http://www.apple.com/movies STILL not fixed, unlike the lame South Africa site error which meant pretty much nothing.

Fifthly:

Video buttons in iTunes 5.

Sixthly:

Apple is known to be in talks with the music industry as well as Disney regarding various types of video content.

Anyone still agree with ThinkSecret that this whole "One More Thing" thing is just about computers?

David :cool:

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 01:51 PM
I keep getting a Page Not Found result for this. I've contacted Investor Relations and they claim it works just fine for them. I've cleared my cache and refreshed the page to no avail.

Anyone else having a problem?
Just tried it and got the page just fine. Must be something on your end. :(

zelmo
Oct 11, 2005, 01:51 PM
I hope they don't go much higher than 10 percent. That, to me, is a sweet spot, where software developers will see the value in developing more Mac titles. If they go higher, we'll see more viruses aimed at Apple, more bloatware, fewer informed users.

I'd love to see Apple camped out with a 10-12% market share of hardware sales by the end of 2007, when the Intel move is complete. Then, release an x86 version of Mac OS 10.5 and grab maybe 25-30% of the overall OS market share.

plastique45
Oct 11, 2005, 01:52 PM
Linux sells computers? Since when??

Seriously though, these numbers are based on companies i.e. Dell, HP, Apple etc. not operating system.


Yes, and there are far more Mac users than Linux users. The Linux OS's market shares are calculated in number of times their OS have been DL. Most of these OS are never used, re-dl by the same users, put on an XBOX etc.

I think it's wired who had an article were it was calculated by various computer people that around 60% of all Linux DL's are actually installed on a PC/Mac and used by someone as their OS.

applebum
Oct 11, 2005, 01:55 PM
My girlfriend just bought a powerbook and her dad a couple months ago.

Sorry, I couldn't resist...how much does a dad cost?? And can you get one at the Apple store? :D

Fiveos22
Oct 11, 2005, 01:56 PM
Around $51.50 today is good, but still a long way off their recent high, which I believe was very close to $55 about a week ago.

The majority of people who play the market in the short term get screwed...and rightfully so. "Playing" the stock market is gambling. Putting money down and leaving it there for the long haul is investing.

Example:
Just before Jan '01, Apple: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '02: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '03: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '04: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '05: ~ $33.00 /share
Oct '05: ~ $55.00 /share

From January '04 to today there has been a 500% increase in stock price. Apple is riding a tsunami right now, on the long term axis. The short term (days and such) doesn't mean crap for anyone who is actually concerned with investing. Furthermore, the current wave is going to be difficult to maintain and we may be in for some stock price ebbing over the next year or two (which may not be a bad thing if there is a split).

Moral of the story: You get what you deserve if you buy stocks for the short term. I have no sympathy for you.

gekko513
Oct 11, 2005, 01:57 PM
Sorry, I couldn't resist...how much does a dad cost?? And can you get one at the Apple store? :D
It's the new iDad that's going to be announced at the "One More Thing" event. I guess this was an early leak.

Super Dave
Oct 11, 2005, 01:57 PM
Yes, and there are far more Mac users than Linux users. The Linux OS's market shares are calculated in number of times their OS have been DL. Most of these OS are never used, re-dl by the same users, put on an XBOX etc.

I think it's wired who had an article were it was calculated by various computer people that around 60% of all Linux DL's are actually installed on a PC/Mac and used by someone as their OS.

I can't find the URL again, but recent web statistics (the ones that show FireFox and Netscape more accurately, though still not accurately enough) show that Linux is aobut .6% of web hits, so I don't know who's using Linux.

David :cool:

jared_kipe
Oct 11, 2005, 02:00 PM
Less than 24 hours till THE Mac event of the year, and the best we have is that Apple market share is on the rise?? Duh, now where is my new newton?

longofest
Oct 11, 2005, 02:01 PM
The majority of people who play the market in the short term get screwed...and rightfully so. "Playing" the stock market is gambling. Putting money down and leaving it there for the long haul is investing.

Example:
Just before Jan '01, Apple: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '02: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '03: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '04: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '05: ~ $33.00 /share
Oct '05: ~ $55.00 /share


Does this even take into account their split about a year ago?

Fiveos22
Oct 11, 2005, 02:05 PM
Does this even take into account their split about a year ago?

I thought there was a split, but I couldn't remember when. These are just straight $/share numbers...nothing to do with volume.

kirk26
Oct 11, 2005, 02:07 PM
I totally agree with you Jon, that ThinkSecret is always right. Even MacRumors seems to be scared to take a stand against their predictions. But I will, this time. They may be right that there is no video iPod, but they are certainly missing something suggesting that the event is just for Macs.

Firstly:
http://www.rodgerson.ca/onemorething.jpg

Curtains do not imply minor or major Mac upgrades. If they imply anything it has to do with movies.

Secondly:

Apple does not do major press events for speed bumps, minor innovations, lame new products, or anything but amazing and revolutionary new products.

Thirdly:

None of the international iTunes Music Stores have been updated today, which can and has historically only meant:
1. iPod product that is related to the music store to be introduced.
2. New "exclusive" artist to the Music store, Beatles perhaps?
3. Some sort of video product other than the iPod but that interfaces with the iTunes Music Store.

Fourthly:

http://www.apple.com/movies STILL not fixed, unlike the lame South Africa site error which meant pretty much nothing.

Fifthly:

Video buttons in iTunes 5.

Sixthly:

Apple is known to be in talks with the music industry as well as Disney regarding various types of video content.

Anyone still agree with ThinkSecret that this whole "One More Thing" thing is just about computers?

David :cool:

Maybe it's Steve behind the curtain naked.

iDM
Oct 11, 2005, 02:07 PM
This is for retail sales only - from the article:

"Through August, Apple's share of the U.S. retail market for computers, excluding online sales, grew to 6.6% from 4.3% in the same period last year, according to market researcher NPD Group."

I wonder what the online sales market share is.
Does anybody here know?

At first I thought to myself, well sh** wait til they factor in Apple.Com sales, I mean that has gotta be a substantial chunk of Apples Sales..................And then I thought of Dell which um well you know..... :(

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 02:07 PM
True, but Apple, like most companies, moves with the market also, and the markets have been getting hammered in the past couple of weeks. I'd say Apple is doing quite well as a whole. As much as we'd all like to have numbers on stocks always rise, it will never happen (though it looked that way with stocks like CMGI and others during the NASDAQ boom).

AAPL's been punished quite hard, more than the overall market -- but this isn't too unusual for stock with this much momentum. A retrenchment above $50, if that's what it is, might be a good thing for the immediate term.

Hang onto your hats for the next two days, either way.

Jesus
Oct 11, 2005, 02:10 PM
I thought there was a split, but I couldn't remember when. These are just straight $/share numbers...nothing to do with volume.

but when you split, the number of shares doubles, so technically, the current share price in 2002 dollars is roughly $100, and also there is inflation to deal with. Apple is doing even better than you said. Also, I think shares have split twice, so the share value= approx. $200.

incredible


Jesus

shawnce
Oct 11, 2005, 02:10 PM
Does this even take into account their split about a year ago? Yup looks like it...

Apple 5 year price history CHART (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5y) TABLE (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=00&b=1&c=2000&d=09&e=11&f=2005&g=m)

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 02:11 PM
The majority of people who play the market in the short term get screwed...and rightfully so. "Playing" the stock market is gambling. Putting money down and leaving it there for the long haul is investing.

Example:
Just before Jan '01, Apple: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '02: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '03: ~ $7.50 /share
Jan '04: ~ $10.50 /share
Jan '05: ~ $33.00 /share
Oct '05: ~ $55.00 /share

From January '04 to today there has been a 500% increase in stock price. Apple is riding a tsunami right now, on the long term axis. The short term (days and such) doesn't mean crap for anyone who is actually concerned with investing. Furthermore, the current wave is going to be difficult to maintain and we may be in for some stock price ebbing over the next year or two (which may not be a bad thing if there is a split).

Moral of the story: You get what you deserve if you buy stocks for the short term. I have no sympathy for you.

Well thanks for the kind thoughts, but please don't worry about having sympathy for me. I've owned AAPL since 1997. The basis in my shares is around $5.00. :p

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 02:13 PM
That seems to have been the norm. I've not followed this very closely, but I remember comments like, no matter how much profit Apple reports the stock always goes down after an earnings report.

A LOT depends on the guidance Apple gives for subsequent quarters. It's not "What have you done for me lately?", the name of the game is "What are you going to do for me tomorrow?"

That is the main piece of information that is harder to guess. There was an Apple earnings report not long ago that blew even the rosiest predictions. But they gave really conservative guidance for the next quarter or 2, and the stock took a hit the next day.

abhishake
Oct 11, 2005, 02:13 PM
i was actually just thinking of posting a thread on this. I was thinking that market share might be going up. From my own little perspective, i was seeing that 3 of my closer friends made the switch this summer, with another one having decided to in the near future. These were the first times i can remember _any_ of my friends switching to macs and now its all happening at once. My girlfriend just bought a powerbook and her dad a couple months ago. Its just one random sampling, but in my little world, mac sales just exploded. Good to see its happening elsewhere as well.


Talk about switching... Sheesh. That's a huge number.. 19 of my friends made the switch, seven of them did it on tax free day..

Is this Worldwide? Because for third-world countries, Macs won't be an issue for Microsoft for quite some time.

dontmatter
Oct 11, 2005, 02:17 PM
As long as the data is based on the same info, growth from 4.3% to 6.6% in a single year is just phenomenal, over 50%. Unless they implode (not out of the question), they'll hit 10% by the time the Intel switch is complete.

yes... and no. remember, RETAIL stores. Dell doesn't sell in retail. Also, apple sells a lot of computers online, as do HP, etc. So this could mean massive growth in market share, or it could mean major change in how people buy what computers, online or in retail.

For example-Dell's market share increases 5 percent, and the other windows makers loose that three percent. About half of those computers HP etc. aren't selling are in stores. Apple remains constant. And boom, apple has an increase in retail presence, without an increase in market share.

Also, apple stores are increasing apple's retail presence, again inflating the numbers.

So, I'd say apple's market share probably has increased, but probably significantly less than the 50% showing it's had in retail.

Well, in two hours wel'll know.

Roy Hobbs
Oct 11, 2005, 02:17 PM
yeah i heard from someone at a ciruit city that dell doesn't let stores sell there stuff in the store. That dell only sells online or something. At least that was the crap he gave me when i asked where the dell monitors were


Dell ONLY sells online, they maybe an occasional kiosk but they only take orders and they process the rest online.

You really went to Circuit City to but a Dell Monitor?????

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 02:18 PM
Does this even take into account their split about a year ago?

EDIT- Yes it does! I am a moron!!!

plinden
Oct 11, 2005, 02:20 PM
At first I thought to myself, well sh** wait til they factor in Apple.Com sales, I mean that has gotta be a substantial chunk of Apples Sales..................And then I thought of Dell which um well you know..... :(
Look at the Oct 2004 results http://www.macobserver.com/article/2004/10/29.6.shtml.

They had 3.2% share including online sales, compared to 4.3% retail.

So they're likely to be at least 5% this quarter. Now they have more retail stores, so that may be even higher.

SLCentral
Oct 11, 2005, 02:20 PM
Sorry, I couldn't resist...how much does a dad cost?? And can you get one at the Apple store? :D

I couldn't help but crack up :D.

allpar
Oct 11, 2005, 02:22 PM
FWIW, I think the real reason behind the hike is not the iPod at all, but the Mini - finally a Mac within the normal person's price range.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 02:22 PM
I totally agree with you Jon, that ThinkSecret is always right.

Anyone still agree with ThinkSecret that this whole "One More Thing" thing is just about computers?

David :cool:

Actually, they've been not very good lately-

They totally missed on the nano, and said the last special event would be ROKR only.
They also said in September that there would be no Mac updates until MacWorld.
Wait, they there are going to be Mac updates at this special event, but no iPods.
Wait, there is actually going to be Mac updates and iPods, but no video.

It's fine, I mean they're only as good as their sources. But I'm not counting on them to be right this time either.

(they did do a great scoop on the Mini and Shuffle, but I think since then Apple has tightened up a bit.)

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 02:26 PM
but when you split, the number of shares doubles, so technically, the current share price in 2002 dollars is roughly $100, and also there is inflation to deal with. Apple is doing even better than you said. Also, I think shares have split twice, so the share value= approx. $200.

incredible


Jesus

AAPL's had two, 2:1 splits in recent years. The first in June 2000 and the second in February 2005.

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 02:29 PM
Maybe it's Steve behind the curtain naked.
You've been staring at your screen too long. ;)

pilky
Oct 11, 2005, 02:29 PM
Right, let's get one thing straight. There is like a less than 1% chance of there being a video iPod. At least not in the way many people are thinking. A portable video player? Yes, there could very well be but an iPod that plays video, no. Why? Well as Steve Jobs says, the screen is too small to watch video on.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure updated iPods are worth noting and you are assuming that there are no major new features to the Powerbooks or and that making the PowerMacs Dual Core might not be good enough to be mentioned. We also have the last theory that Apple could release something that is completely different to what we are thinking.

And last but not least, remember that hell has been awfully chilly recently ;)

abhishake
Oct 11, 2005, 02:30 PM
Actually, they've been not very good lately-

They totally missed on the nano, and said the last special event would be ROKR only.
They also said in September that there would be no Mac updates until MacWorld.
Wait, they there are going to be Mac updates at this special event, but no iPods.
Wait, there is actually going to be Mac updates and iPods, but no video.

It's fine, I mean they're only as good as their sources. But I'm not counting on them to be right this time either.

(they did do a great scoop on the Mini and Shuffle, but I think since then Apple has tightened up a bit.)


Yeah, and they're flip flopping on this. Now they say that there will be two new iPods, but no video iPod yet.

VicMacs
Oct 11, 2005, 02:31 PM
good day to invest in apple again

diamond3
Oct 11, 2005, 02:33 PM
I think a big part of the reason for the increases in sells is the mac mini. Best buy sells the mac mini in there store and from a friend that works there, it is doing rather well.

abhishake
Oct 11, 2005, 02:33 PM
Right, let's get one thing straight. There is like a less than 1% chance of there being a video iPod. At least not in the way many people are thinking. A portable video player? Yes, there could very well be but an iPod that plays video, no. Why? Well as Steve Jobs says, the screen is too small to watch video on.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure updated iPods are worth noting and you are assuming that there are no major new features to the Powerbooks or and that making the PowerMacs Dual Core might not be good enough to be mentioned. We also have the last theory that Apple could release something that is completely different to what we are thinking.

And last but not least, remember that hell has been awfully chilly recently ;)

We could go all day deciding whether Apple is releasing the iPod, but I believe that there is a much greater chance of Apple releasing the video iPod thank just 1%.

Steve Jobs has said that in the past, but any time in the recent past (meaning 3-5 months)? I don't believe so. I think Apple may be releasing the video iPod tomorrow.

manu chao
Oct 11, 2005, 02:33 PM
it's worth noting how big an increase that really is: you determine that by subtracting 4.3 from 6.6, teh difference--or increase--is 2.3, you then divide that by 4.3 and find that it represents a 54% increase in apple's market share. that's phenomenal in one year.
terry

Now factor in a 15% overall market growth and get a 77% unit growth for Apple. And that is without the iPod. I know few companies with Apple's size that grow that fast.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 02:35 PM
Right, let's get one thing straight. There is like a less than 1% chance of there being a video iPod. At least not in the way many people are thinking. A portable video player? Yes, there could very well be but an iPod that plays video, no. Why? Well as Steve Jobs says, the screen is too small to watch video on.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure updated iPods are worth noting and you are assuming that there are no major new features to the Powerbooks or and that making the PowerMacs Dual Core might not be good enough to be mentioned. We also have the last theory that Apple could release something that is completely different to what we are thinking.

And last but not least, remember that hell has been awfully chilly recently ;)

I think it's actually the other way around. Portable video is a less compelling application than music, so Apple is very unlikely to create a brand new device that plays video, especially if it doesn't fit in your pocket. It simply costs too much to develop and support, with questionable sales potential. After all, whether its a 3" screen or a 5" screen it's still small. ;)

They're more likely to build in video capability to existing iPods, as a value-added feature. They will of course try to make it as attractive as possible (actually work on content as opposed to the other companies), and if it becomes a popular feature, then a dedicated video player with bigger screen and other improvements becomes more likely.

SiliconAddict
Oct 11, 2005, 02:39 PM
Make it to 10 and I will throw a block party. :D

Dagless
Oct 11, 2005, 02:45 PM
its all good :)

whats brilliant is that I switched because my old 3G 15GB iPod was my single greatest purchase ever. my girlfriend has the 'pod now. and she's waiting for a Mactel. a disabled woman who my mum helps out now and again is after a machine; an Apple. only ONE person left on my course who hasn't got an Apple computer, incidentally she hasn't got a computer at all (i think).

compared to around 2 years ago everybody i knew spat on Apple. some fools still do. but they're creeping back in. the huge performance boost that the Mactels will bring will surely add a big number of switchers.

digitalbiker
Oct 11, 2005, 02:48 PM
Steve Jobs has said that in the past, but any time in the recent past (meaning 3-5 months)? I don't believe so. I think Apple may be releasing the video iPod tomorrow.

SJ just said it 3 weeks ago at the Paris Expo interview.

Thinksecret hasn't really flip-flopped much. They just report what the current information is telling them. They have been pretty consistant about ipod updates, mac updates, but no video ipod. Appleinsider reported the video ipod as did macosrumors. Both of which have been fairly bad lately at predicting future releases. MacOsRumors can't even keep their website functional.

Thinksecret was actually quoted as the reliable source by Business Week and CNet.

The movie curtain reference could mean anything. Significant Mac updates could actually use a big press-release to help sales with the Intel transition getting ready to go full swing.

Having said all that I personally think there will be some sort of iTunes movie store, download and burn DVD movies, and updated macs / mac equipment to aid in that purpose. ie new blu-ray device, video airport device, tivo, something like that.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 02:55 PM
SJ just said it 3 weeks ago at the Paris Expo interview.

Thinksecret hasn't really flip-flopped much. They just report what the current information is telling them. They have been pretty consistant about ipod updates, mac updates, but no video ipod. Appleinsider reported the video ipod as did macosrumors. Both of which have been fairly bad lately at predicting future releases. MacOsRumors can't even keep their website functional.

The ThinkSecret cup is either half full or half empty I guess. They are only as accurate as the info they get, which has led to some conflicting reports recently (no Mac updates until next year, yes Mac updates. no new iPods, yes new iPods.) They have been pretty consistent about the 'no video iPod', but then again they were pretty certain about the last event being ROKR only.

Put it this way. I feel a lot more confident about the products they say will be introduced, rather than what they say won't be introduced. In the first case, they have a source that knows something. In the second case, they have a source they may know something, or may just be out of the loop.

As a whole package, 4 updated Macs and new non-video iPods are a pretty great lineup. But I don't think Apple would have sent invites with 'One more thing...' unless there was something that also represented a qualitative change or new product.

GroundLoop
Oct 11, 2005, 02:57 PM
I'm getting a little worried with these analysts talking about video iPods tomorrow. Since ThinkSecret is hardly ever wrong, chances are we won't see video iPods and my stock might show the results when all these analysts are disappointed with tomorrow, although the numbers tonight should excite them.

jon


You can do what I usually do.....buy on rumor and sell on news....

This is an interesting time though with the quarterly financials tonight, I decided to hold my stock and earn a little on the after hours trading. Then I am going to sell tomorrow morning and repurchase them on Thursday or Friday. This has worked on almost every single Apple event, but as I said, the financials could throw a wrench into the whole thing.

Wish me luck.

Hickman

manu chao
Oct 11, 2005, 03:00 PM
Talk about switching... Sheesh. That's a huge number.. 19 of my friends made the switch, seven of them did it on tax free day..

Is this Worldwide? Because for third-world countries, Macs won't be an issue for Microsoft for quite some time.

Probably not worldwide, but anecdotal evidence suggest that the marketshare of Apple is also picking up noticably in Switzerland.

pilky
Oct 11, 2005, 03:01 PM
They're more likely to build in video capability to existing iPods, as a value-added feature. They will of course try to make it as attractive as possible (actually work on content as opposed to the other companies), and if it becomes a popular feature, then a dedicated video player with bigger screen and other improvements becomes more likely.

Depends if it just plays video. I've believed for quite a long time that Apple can truly bridge the gap between iPod and Mac by creating a sort of handheld mini mac device. Kinda like PDA come iBook mini come PSP. Throw on apps like iTunes, Quicktime, Safari, Mail, iChat and put in WiFi and you have a portable version of apps you could do with having on the go. Imagine going into a wifi hotspot and being able to chat with your friends or get your mail etc. If you think about it, Apple has the technologies to do this. Sync the new mail, safari history, iChat logs etc with your Mac using sync services. Handwriting recognition via Inkwell.

Sure it's a long shot, but I believe a device like this is more likely than a video iPod. I mean, throw in a decent sized HD and then you can load the Cocoa frameworks on so that 3rd party developers could write app's. It's the sort of idea that fits in with that 0.5W palmtop processor Intel was showing off a while ago.

mtgarden
Oct 11, 2005, 03:10 PM
Depends if it just plays video. I've believed for quite a long time that Apple can truly bridge the gap between iPod and Mac by creating a sort of handheld mini mac device. ....

Here's my thought: Apple would not call such an abnormal event to promote an update in specs. I doubt Apple would do it just to advertise dual-core PPCs. With the switch to Intel coming, I can't see Jobs making a huge deal about processors that will be dead in 6 months. (Realistically, the people who NEED dual core will wait.)

Apple must have something big up their proverbial sleeve. Whether it's a video ipod or not, it will be something more than generic upgrades (Apple does that all the time without the fanfare). I can't wait. Instead of the video iPod, I want to see a ITMS version of netflix.....

bigandy
Oct 11, 2005, 03:19 PM
:) go apple!

Qunchuy
Oct 11, 2005, 03:25 PM
...Instead of the video iPod, I want to see a ITMS version of netflix.....
I'd be happy with that. I'd be absolutely ecstatic to see an official TiVo/Apple partnership as part of it.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 03:36 PM
You can do what I usually do.....buy on rumor and sell on news....

This is an interesting time though with the quarterly financials tonight, I decided to hold my stock and earn a little on the after hours trading. Then I am going to sell tomorrow morning and repurchase them on Thursday or Friday. This has worked on almost every single Apple event, but as I said, the financials could throw a wrench into the whole thing.

Wish me luck.

Hickman

Good luck! :)

In general, you are right about Apple's stock movements. However, it got me thinking about the nano announcement.

I think the nano was announced on September 7. Look at Apple stock chart right around then-

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=3m

It went up after September 6th. And as you say, the financials (and Apple's guidance for next quarter) will affect the stock price.

Peace
Oct 11, 2005, 03:37 PM
EPS up only .01 over expectations..
And

Steve Jobs WILL be doing the financial conference call..

sisyphus
Oct 11, 2005, 03:38 PM
$0.50!!! Wahooo!!!! :D :eek: :D

solvs
Oct 11, 2005, 03:38 PM
Maybe it's Steve behind the curtain naked.
I love Steve and all... but I don't LOVE Steve! :eek:

Fabio_gsilva
Oct 11, 2005, 03:39 PM
Probably not worldwide, but anecdotal evidence suggest that the marketshare of Apple is also picking up noticably in Switzerland.

Here in Brazil, for example, I doubt that Apple has at least 1% of the market share. It's to expensive because of taxes... And, of course, people don't know nothing about computers, nothing at all... they don't even heard about Apple...

For example, at todays exchange, a standard Mac Mini 1.25 ghz costs US$ 1,120.00... And you can find some decent grey machines (the name people usually call blackmarket of computers here) for at least US$ 700, a big diference...

Someday, maybe, we will see this thing change...

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 03:39 PM
Depends if it just plays video. I've believed for quite a long time that Apple can truly bridge the gap between iPod and Mac by creating a sort of handheld mini mac device. Kinda like PDA come iBook mini come PSP. Throw on apps like iTunes, Quicktime, Safari, Mail, iChat and put in WiFi and you have a portable version of apps you could do with having on the go. Imagine going into a wifi hotspot and being able to chat with your friends or get your mail etc. If you think about it, Apple has the technologies to do this.

Yeah, it's called the iBook! ;)

Seriously, I agree they have the tech to make a Mac OS X tablet that can do all those things. But what's the point? If it's larger than an iPod, then it won't fit in your pocket. And then you may as well have a notebook computer.

I could see Apple making a smaller iBook or PowerBook, but then that's not some whole new category of device. It's a smaller iBook or PowerBook.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 03:41 PM
I love Steve and all... but I don't LOVE Steve! :eek:

Yes, it's okay to love your high tech deity, but just don't LOVE your high tech deity.

p0intblank
Oct 11, 2005, 03:43 PM
Wow. 6.6% marketshare for just their computers alone is an amazing number. I'm so glad for Apple. :D

DPazdanISU
Oct 11, 2005, 03:45 PM
Somehow Yahoo Finance already knows Apple's Quarterly Figures. Take a look http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051011/sftu144.html?.v=14
Lets see Intel Macs tomorrow and an online Movie Store

Peace
Oct 11, 2005, 03:46 PM
Somehow Yahoo Finance already knows Apple's Quarterly Figures. Take a look http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051011/sftu144.html?.v=14
Lets see Intel Macs tomorrow and an online Movie Store

Figures were released at 1:30PM PT

gekko513
Oct 11, 2005, 03:47 PM
Somehow Yahoo Finance already knows Apple's Quarterly Figures. Take a look http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051011/sftu144.html?.v=14
Lets see Intel Macs tomorrow and an online Movie Store
That's strange. It looks real, too. At first glance, anyway.

sisyphus
Oct 11, 2005, 03:48 PM
Not quite sure what people want, but AAPL seems to be trading down about $4.50 at 47 in after hours trading.

Go figure.

dongmin
Oct 11, 2005, 03:50 PM
Which means one of two things;

either People are snatching up the last PPC macs because they are worried about Intel macs

or People are completely oblivious to the transition. Duh, what's a CPU? Is it important?Or that consumers don't give a rat's a$$ about what's under the hood as long as it's fast, stable, and pretty. People who buy a Mac because they like the iPod so much probably aren't the most CPU-picky people in the world.

The transition to Intel should open up a lot more doors for Apple. It'll allow Apple to make even smaller, slicker laptops. More powerful desktops. Greater availability of software. Analysts are expecting 20% growth per year over the next couple of years. I say that's too conservative.

madmaxmedia
Oct 11, 2005, 03:53 PM
Not quite sure what people want, but AAPL seems to be trading down about $4.50 at 47 in after hours trading.

Go figure.

Ouch. Keep in mind that the knee-jerk reaction is often completely different from what happens when trading opens the next day.

Which means it could be at $53 :D , or it could be at $43! :(

Mr Maui
Oct 11, 2005, 03:53 PM
Somehow Yahoo Finance already knows Apple's Quarterly Figures. Take a look http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051011/sftu144.html?.v=14
Lets see Intel Macs tomorrow and an online Movie Store
Apple share are off 9% (http://channels.netscape.com/pf/news_story.jsp?id=2005101116340002588276&dt=20051011163400&w=RTR&coview=&TickerSymbols=AAPL) in after hours trading. $.50 per share profit and stock falls a ton in aftermarket???? Hmmm. Maybe Steve is announcing his retirement. Guess it's good to buy now in he after-hours session. Seems to be a big discount built in.

~Shard~
Oct 11, 2005, 03:54 PM
I think the move to Intel will help in boosting these numbers even higher - more people will be able to relate to the machines better if they know there is "Intel inside". :cool:

IJ Reilly
Oct 11, 2005, 04:00 PM
The top line was just a little shy of the most optimistic estimates, but not by much (about 1%), but the EPS was 35% higher. So the stock is down 10%. Makes sense to me....

:rolleyes:

GroundLoop
Oct 11, 2005, 04:13 PM
This is all based on iPod sales....they only shipped 6.45 million as opposed to the expected 7-9 million. Basically the street fears that the iPod craze is slowing down. This explains the sell-off we are seeing right now.

Hickman

digitalbiker
Oct 11, 2005, 04:38 PM
It'll allow Apple to make even smaller, slicker laptops. More powerful desktops. Greater availability of software. Analysts are expecting 20% growth per year over the next couple of years. I say that's too conservative.

I think there is a lot of speculation in those statements. What Intel boasts for future processor performance and what it delivers has been two different things in the past.

Personally I am concerned that the transition to Intel will result in a lot less native mac software. I am worried that the larger software houses will just program windows only versions of the software. They will just tell mac users to run VPC or WINE or some other windows emulator to use their software. Since this emulation will run near full speed on an x86 based machine, why waste all the time coding for the mac market when they can already run the emulated version.

digitalbiker
Oct 11, 2005, 04:45 PM
The top line was just a little shy of the most optimistic estimates, but not by much (about 1%), but the EPS was 35% higher. So the stock is down 10%. Makes sense to me....

:rolleyes:

I have owned Apple stock for the last 5 years. Almost like clockwork the stock nosedives 5-10% after the quarterly report, then it slowly rebounds and jumps at the next product announcement.

I wonder if the timing of the Wednesday special event wasn't a new ploy this year to bump stock faster after the normal quarterly report drop.

I think almost all of the quarterly report stock drop is attributable to profit takers. They have been holding the stock, waiting for the climb to the quartely report and then immediately sale off.

jeffy.dee-lux
Oct 11, 2005, 05:32 PM
okay, about the iDad... you didn't hear it from me k? I don't want apple legal all up on my ass about this leak...

akhomerun
Oct 11, 2005, 06:00 PM
duhh...if you exclude online sales, you exclude dell almost completely, totally eliminating the manufacterer with the largest marketshare

plinden
Oct 11, 2005, 06:10 PM
duhh...if you exclude online sales, you exclude dell almost completely, totally eliminating the manufacterer with the largest marketshare
Hmm, but you also exclude all of Apple's online sales. According to their figures, retail sales accounted for 202,000 out of 1,236,000 Mac sales, or < 1/6 of the total.

MacSlut
Oct 11, 2005, 07:26 PM
ThinkSecret just flip-flopped again and posted that there might be a video iPod after all.

I'm surprised that I haven't seen a single person correctly guess what's behind the curtain.

You heard it here first, the one more thing is...

Wireless Mighty Mouse!!!

No, seriously...I think whatever it is, the one more thing is something that relates to today's earnings. Meaning that it's not a simple update, but rather a new business Apple is entering. This really makes sense with a video iPod, which has absolutely nothing to do with watching movies on a 2" screen.

With the other media even scheduled with the BBC, this should be a sign of what will be announced. The thing is, Apple could announce like a hundred different things, everything from a Beatles iPod, to Airport Express AV. Whatever it is, I'm tempted to line up tomorrow morning at the local Apple Store *before* the announcement.

sehix
Oct 11, 2005, 11:26 PM
This is for retail sales only - from the article:

"Through August, Apple's share of the U.S. retail market for computers, excluding online sales, grew to 6.6% from 4.3% in the same period last year, according to market researcher NPD Group."

I wonder what the online sales market share is.

"Retail sales" doesn't mean just sales through brick-and-mortar stores.

Online sales are *part* of retail. Institutional sales, sales to corporations and so on could be part of the non-retail sales.

Tokyo
Oct 12, 2005, 02:04 AM
I followed the article links, and the article is titled "Apple's Next Big Thing," and so far as I could tell, does not mention the market share figures on any of the four pages of the article. Either they edited the story, changed the story, or switched the URL. Any alternate links?

Evangelion
Oct 12, 2005, 02:37 AM
Ill be happy when we over take linux again...

Why? Does popularity of Linux somehow harm Apple? Instead of focusing winning over Windows-users, why focus on "taking over" Linux? Besides: less Windows-users there are, the better off we all are, regardless of whether they use Linux or Mac. And second: Linux and Mac can coexist a lot better than Mac and Windows can (or Linux and Windows for that matter).

Seriously: Linux and Mac do not have to compete with each other. If Linux succeeds, it will be good for Mac. If Mac succeeds, it will be good for Linux.

Evangelion
Oct 12, 2005, 02:39 AM
But the number does apply to Mac OS X. All of those Macs run OS X, and no other computers sold do.

Some people DO buy MAcs in order to run Linux on them. Yes, 98% of Mac-users buy Macs to run OS X on them, but some people like the hardware, and want to run their favourite OS (in this case, Linux) on it.

For example: Click Me (http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/7789)

Evangelion
Oct 12, 2005, 02:45 AM
Yes, and there are far more Mac users than Linux users.

Maybe, maybe not. Some people think that Linux has overtaken Macs. Whether it has overtaken Mac or not, fact remains that the difference between the two is not that great and there are not "far more Mac-users than Linux-users". Most people seem to think that the two are more or less equal.

The Linux OS's market shares are calculated in number of times their OS have been DL. Most of these OS are never used, re-dl by the same users, put on an XBOX etc.

I think it's wired who had an article were it was calculated by various computer people that around 60% of all Linux DL's are actually installed on a PC/Mac and used by someone as their OS.

It's actually very difficult to calculate the number of Linux-users by looking at the number of downloads. Yes, some people re-download the OS. Some people download it and never use it. But I know of cases where Linux was downloaded just once, and installed on about 1.000 computers. I have downloaded various distros, and handed that one dowload to several people.

Then there's the issue of preinstalled OS'es. Lots and lots of people buy Windows-machines, and replace the Windows with Linux. Yet those computers are counted towards Windows market-share and not Linux'es.

SiliconAddict
Oct 12, 2005, 08:17 AM
I'd be happy with that. I'd be absolutely ecstatic to see an official TiVo/Apple partnership as part of it.


How about a three way?

Tivo/Apple/Netflix. I could so see that happening in a big way. *drools at the though of an Apple Tivo system.

lalcan
Oct 12, 2005, 10:23 AM
It seems Apple is doing pretty well in the US, but it still has a long way to go to satisfy european users, not to mention other markets...

solvs
Oct 12, 2005, 11:49 PM
How about a three way?
That made me giggle.