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MacBytes
Oct 16, 2005, 01:36 PM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: iPod 'doomed', says expert (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20051016143639)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

mkrishnan
Oct 16, 2005, 01:40 PM
Oh, good. I thought for a moment that it would live forever and slowly take over the universe. :rolleyes: :eek: :D

gangst
Oct 16, 2005, 01:45 PM
I think it is mainly a big bold statement by the analyst to get added attention.

PlaceofDis
Oct 16, 2005, 01:47 PM
there really isnt much of an argument. aren't podcasts participation? isn't adding your music playlists etc participation. what kind of participation should there be? he doesnt say. what crap.

fayans
Oct 16, 2005, 01:47 PM
I think he was referring to iPod Mini. :D

MacDawg
Oct 16, 2005, 02:03 PM
Sounds a lot like "sour grapes" to me

Woof, Woof - Dawg http://homepage.mac.com/k.j.vinson/pawprint.gif

dornoforpyros
Oct 16, 2005, 02:04 PM
oh those zany experts! I wonder if I can join them one day at their experts conferences and come up with my own expert opinions

"So I feel that one day everyone will have a TV implanted into their wrist, it will have wifi and a light weight version of windows"


Now give me some money please.

moot
Oct 16, 2005, 02:09 PM
oh those zany experts! I wonder if I can join them one day at their experts conferences and come up with my own expert opinions

"So I feel that one day everyone will have a TV implanted into their wrist, it will have wifi and a light weight version of windows"


Now give me some money please.


Are you making fun of the experts. I hope not because of course we should believe everything they say, as they are experts. I do. As long as the person is an expert I believe any bulls***t that comes out of their orrifices.

treblah
Oct 16, 2005, 02:10 PM
I think it is mainly a big bold statement by the analyst to get added attention.

Dave Winer is not an analyst.

Sounds a lot like "sour grapes" to me

Sounds about right. This is the same guy who complained that Apple didn't call him when they decided to utilize RSS in Safari RSS. Not to mention the podcasting riff with Adam Curry. :rolleyes:

Deepdale
Oct 16, 2005, 02:12 PM
I think it is mainly a big bold statement by the analyst to get added attention.

Valid point ... the basic act of mentioning an extremely hot consumer item with high visibility results in readers paying attention. It packs an even greater punch when it deviates from the normal opinion of the product line or, better yet for the analyst, predicts an eventual crash and burn. There is a substantial difference between an expected slowdown versus doom.

MacDawg
Oct 16, 2005, 02:15 PM
It doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that ALL technology is doomed at some point.

Woof, Woof - Dawg http://homepage.mac.com/k.j.vinson/pawprint.gif

debroglie
Oct 16, 2005, 02:56 PM
He is right (http://ipodlinux.org/Doom)

;)




[just to clarify, I didn't even read the stupid article, but I couldn't resist this]

merge
Oct 16, 2005, 03:29 PM
The iPod is doomed! because I said so...
You don't actually want a reason, do you?
Isn't "because I said so" good enough for you people!

Nermal
Oct 16, 2005, 03:30 PM
He's certainly living up to his name :p

IJ Reilly
Oct 16, 2005, 03:30 PM
Dave Winer is not an analyst.

Hey we're all analysts in our own minds.

Dave has a history with Apple. His gripe goes back to when AppleScript was first included in the MacOS, shortly after he'd developed his own scripting environment for the Mac (Frontier).

Lacero
Oct 16, 2005, 03:33 PM
Yes it is true. From MS, Sony and Creative's perspective, the iPod is doomed to take over the MP3 player market forever. :D

gangst
Oct 16, 2005, 03:35 PM
Yes it is true. From MS, Sony and Creative's perspective, the iPod is doomed to take over the MP3 player market forever. :D

I like it lol.

mkrishnan
Oct 16, 2005, 03:37 PM
He is right (http://ipodlinux.org/Doom)

:D

I was aware of this project but never paid it much attention. I downloaded the video of it running on an iPod Photo, and I must say that I'm duly impressed. :D

macnulty
Oct 16, 2005, 03:39 PM
After reading that, I want the 30 seconds of my life back.

Eidorian
Oct 16, 2005, 03:39 PM
Off of Slashdot.org...


by Saven Marek (739395) on Sunday October 16, @01:02PM (#13803988)
Here's some iPod history of all the bad moves apple has made with the ipod that clearly show how successful it can't be. except it still is.

Original iPod 2001
"Too expensive ($400)"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"No PC support"
"No Games"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Second generation 10/20 gig iPods 2002 (PC support)
"Too expensive"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"The 10 gig will cannibalize 20 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Third generation 10/15/30 gig iPods 2003 w/ITMS and docking
"Too expensive"
"No one wants to buy just one song"
"Not enough titles in ITMS"
"10 gig will cannibalize 15 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod mini 4 gig (end of 2003)
"Too expensive" ($249)
"It's ugly"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Not enough storage"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Fourth generation 20/40 gig iPod 2004 (Clickwheel)
HP Branded iPod
iPod Photo (40/60 gig)
U2 black iPod (October)
"Too expensive" ($299/$399, $499/$599 for photo)
"HP will cannibalize Apple sales"
"No one wants little photos on an iPod"
"Black iPod is ugly"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod Shuffle 2005
Second generation iPod mini 4/6 gig
"One gig shuffle is too expensive" ($149)
"No screen"
"4 gig mini will cannibalize Shuffle sales"
"6 gig mini will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Shuffles will cannibalize mini sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod nano 2005 (September)
"Too expensive" ($199/$249)
"Should have kept the mini"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"No one will buy the Shuffle now"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod with Video Playback 30/60 gig (October 2005)
"Too expensive" ($299/$399)
"No one wants little videos"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

p0intblank
Oct 16, 2005, 03:43 PM
Well that's a waste of Internet space... :rolleyes: Seriously, can we please have a reason?

.......

That's what I thought.

Stella
Oct 16, 2005, 03:45 PM
The iPod has succeeded because the consumer has identified with it and generally likes it.

The music industry has had little impact on the success of the iPod.

Its all about the consumer, if the consumer didn't like the product, the iPod would not have been a success.

mkrishnan
Oct 16, 2005, 03:53 PM
Yea, with 82% Market Share (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a58iozj_2jXM) of the MP3 player market, I'm sure the iPod is on it's last legs. I predict it will be back down to 5% market share by Christmas, and by New Years, people will be saying, "iPod who??"

This way, with any luck, Apple will be able to close its doors officially before the end of the calendar year. It's a long time coming -- good riddance to bad rubbish! :D

Macmaniac
Oct 16, 2005, 04:09 PM
I am so sick of these doom and gloom reports about the iPod. The iPod may eventually lose market share, but it will still be one of the best MP3 players. I am so sick of this Death to Apple attitude. Dumb article...

outerspaceapple
Oct 16, 2005, 05:55 PM
Off of Slashdot.org...

Thats the best quote i've heard in a long, long time.

hyperpasta
Oct 16, 2005, 06:24 PM
Gotta love the experts. Another Web 2.0 hippie. By that logic, CDs failed too.

Photorun
Oct 16, 2005, 09:08 PM
These computers are just a fad, I predict by the end of this year we're all back to typewriters and abacuses.

Trust me, I'm an analyst!

Signed,
Dave Winer

Heb1228
Oct 16, 2005, 09:15 PM
If, in 10 years, the iPod doesn't still exist, then I guess he will have been right... But that goes for any piece of technology.

I bet Dave Winer also predicted sunrise tomorrow..

iMeowbot
Oct 16, 2005, 09:39 PM
Sounds like typical Dave Whiner to me.

mj_1903
Oct 16, 2005, 09:59 PM
Yea, with 82% Market Share (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a58iozj_2jXM) of the MP3 player market, I'm sure the iPod is on it's last legs. I predict it will be back down to 5% market share by Christmas, and by New Years, people will be saying, "iPod who??"

Didn't Microsoft say that they would force Apple below 50% marketshare this year with all their "Plays for Sure" players? Oops!

nagromme
Oct 16, 2005, 10:00 PM
Apple doesn't like open standards?

Who is he comparing to that is better about open standards? Microsoft??

Sounds like he WANTS the iPod to fail, and feels the need to find a reason to say that it will.

Analog Kid
Oct 16, 2005, 10:00 PM
Hate to go against the tide here, but he does have a point-- I just don't know that Apple has much of a choice.

I think what he's saying is that the iPod can't survive without content and to the extent that they prevent the content providers from participating in decisions about how their content is handled there will eventually be nothing left to play.

For now the iPod is successful, not because of iTMS but because people like the iPod as a player and they can rip in their CD library. We already see the labels trying to prevent transfer of CD encoded music into portable players-- once people can't rip their discs, the iPod will not be as attractive.

What Apple is doing now is smart but ultimately futile-- they're trying to build the popularity of the iPod to the point that the labels have no other outlet for their product. The problem is that digital players are only a small fraction of the overall music market.

We could hope that consumers would stand up and demand "fair use" of the music they buy, but consumers have a pretty weak reputation for defending their rights.

The other problem is that Apple can't just succumb to the growing greed of the labels. They have to set reasonable limits on participation, but the more the iPod grows as a percent of Apple's revenue, the harder this is going to be. Apple needs to have other sources of income if they're going to be able to negotiate from a position of strength-- and that's going to mean keeping their computer business healthy.

In the distant future, I can imagine the artists simply going direct to the distributors and cutting the labels out entirely-- this isn't going to make the situation any easier for Apple because they'll have to deal with many more negotiators but at least the size of the Apple distribution channel will give them leverage. I don't think we're far from that, actually-- the artists, distributors and consumers are all fed up with the labels.

The near future is going to be the challenge though. I suspect the move to Intel processors (and thus the Intel security scheme) was a step towards pleasing the content providers. It's going to be a tough road ahead though. The labels are already spewing their greedy rhetoric and Apple is going to need to hone their brinksmanship skills.

As long as Apple holds 80% of a lucrative market, there's going to be people trying to break in. Most markets mature to 3 or so major players, and very often that doesn't include the early pioneers. Apple will need to manage the transition without losing everything.

amin
Oct 16, 2005, 10:02 PM
Oh, good. I thought for a moment that it would live forever and slowly take over the universe. :rolleyes: :eek: :D

Ha ha, good one :D.

SPUY767
Oct 17, 2005, 04:50 AM
iPod doomed, says 'expert'

whooleytoo
Oct 17, 2005, 07:08 AM
Well that's a waste of Internet space... :rolleyes: Seriously, can we please have a reason?

.......

That's what I thought.

I'm guessing he meant it's not open to 3rd party software/services (apart from those selected by Apple such as Audiobooks, Podcasts), but I don't think any other media players are that open either.

In fairness, I think it would be a good thing - I'd love to be able to write software for the iPod too, or would even love just to be able to install Flash games on it. But I don't think the iPod is any worse off than other mainstream player.

steelfist
Oct 17, 2005, 08:28 AM
Original iPod 2001
"Too expensive ($400)"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"No PC support"
"No Games"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Second generation 10/20 gig iPods 2002 (PC support)
"Too expensive"
"Can't use regular batteries"
"The 10 gig will cannibalize 20 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Third generation 10/15/30 gig iPods 2003 w/ITMS and docking
"Too expensive"
"No one wants to buy just one song"
"Not enough titles in ITMS"
"10 gig will cannibalize 15 gig sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod mini 4 gig (end of 2003)
"Too expensive" ($249)
"It's ugly"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Not enough storage"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Fourth generation 20/40 gig iPod 2004 (Clickwheel)
HP Branded iPod
iPod Photo (40/60 gig)
U2 black iPod (October)
"Too expensive" ($299/$399, $499/$599 for photo)
"HP will cannibalize Apple sales"
"No one wants little photos on an iPod"
"Black iPod is ugly"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod Shuffle 2005
Second generation iPod mini 4/6 gig
"One gig shuffle is too expensive" ($149)
"No screen"
"4 gig mini will cannibalize Shuffle sales"
"6 gig mini will cannibalize iPod sales"
"Shuffles will cannibalize mini sales"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

iPod nano 2005 (September)
"Too expensive" ($199/$249)
"Should have kept the mini"
"Will cannibalize iPod sales"
"No one will buy the Shuffle now"
"Big flop.. Apple is through"

Idiot. he just proved himself wrong 7 times, and in a couple of weeks, the 8th time. and, he was 100% wrong. why? lets give an example. he said the iPod nano 2005 be a big flop. how about the news: http://www.tgdaily.com/2005/10/11/apple_q4_2005/ oh yea, what does that mean? it means that apple has the Biggest shortage of products because it's TOO popular. also, statistics and history shows the iPod series have been very successful. he didn't even admit that he was wrong.

so, it is like this:

the ipod sucks. it's going to die.
news headlines: iPod a huge success.

the new 2gen ipod sucks. it's going to die.
news headlines: iPod's market is growing

the new 3 gen ipod sucks.
news headlines: iPod is now over 70% (for example) in mp3 market share

now, he has been proven wrong 3 times so far. did he admit it? was he obviously wrong?

Do you see the stupidity and arrogance in the "predictions" he's 100% wrong in the past, and he's going to be wrong again.

it's like a person saying: windows 95 sucks. microsoft is going bankrupt.
well, what happened afterward and later with the new products?

he's just a seriously biased uninformative person! :mad: sure, apple might lose market share and maybe, just maybe die out, but my message is this.

DON"T LISTEN TO ANY CRAP HE SAYS!

nobodybig
Oct 17, 2005, 08:48 AM
*
Yeah, the novella wasn't supposed to last, either, not until Romans learned to read about how to behave with polite manners.

The printing press, hmm, well, it wasn't supposed to last, not until Don Quixote made it famous.

And the Xerox machine... definitely a waste of paper by egotist everywhere.

When people want their anxieties relieved, they seek solace in a personal way. It's a one-on-one process, anxiety relief is, even if you're sitting amidst a congregation. The iPod is a soul-related device, very personal. Its contents may even reveal too much about its owner. But the owner is proud of it, so much so as to wear it like a badge. Heaven help us if it gets scratched at all.

Time alone helps to build tension for participation. Both are needed since we must handle our feelings as well as our need to know.

Winer fails to take note of these basic necessities of living, of anxiety relief (art) and anxiety creation (science).

Use of the iPod is an act of balancing art and science, and this is a very healthy thing to do. Of course, there is much to discuss here about the quality of the content on the iPod but that matter is addressed naturally enough by every user's experience.

The iPod will be around until something else is both functionally equivalent and more efficient.
*

balamw
Oct 17, 2005, 09:07 AM
For now the iPod is successful, not because of iTMS but because people like the iPod as a player and they can rip in their CD library. We already see the labels trying to prevent transfer of CD encoded music into portable players-- once people can't rip their discs, the iPod will not be as attractive.

The only way the labels will be able to really stop ripping is to stop making CDs that are compatible with the huge numbers of CD/DVD players out there. To do that they need to come up with a better alternative that is as ubiquitous. Right now it would seem that iPod+iTunes could be a candidate, while microsoft's technology just hovers at the fringes, but if they get their DRM into lots and lots of devices, like cell phones, MS will ultimately win.

B

sushi
Oct 17, 2005, 09:17 AM
Yea, with 82% Market Share (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a58iozj_2jXM) of the MP3 player market, I'm sure the iPod is on it's last legs. I predict it will be back down to 5% market share by Christmas, and by New Years, people will be saying, "iPod who??"
Well, a long time ago, Apple commanded a serious lead in the OS war. Now look at where it is.

Just because you lead currently, does not mean that you will continue to lead in the future as the market expands.

That is why Apple must stay on their toes and continually innovate improvements with the iPod line. So far, they have not disappointed. Let's hope that they keep it up and they morf the iPod into what it needs to be for customers to continue to purchase them.

Sushi

CMYanko
Oct 17, 2005, 10:23 AM
As much as I respect Dave Winer anyone predicting 'doom' for the iPod is obviously callous about something. In his case it is how Apple co-opted RSS for it's own purposes. Mr Winer seems to think RSS is a kind of patented technology that has been abused by Apple instead of a Really Simple way to use XML to convey information no matter how you extend or contort the DTD (whish is what XML is all about!)

Saying Jobs likes closed system is ludicris. There is also a presumption here that the Apple format can't or wont become 'more open' over time. As a consumer his argument doesn't hold water otherwise how would I be listening to stuff like Democracy Now! on my iPod. How can Amy Goodman 'interact' with the iPod while others cannot?

Photorun
Oct 17, 2005, 11:05 AM
Most markets mature to 3 or so major players, and very often that doesn't include the early pioneers. Apple will need to manage the transition without losing everything.

Unless that market is computers, in which case Microshaft will use every tactic, many of which are illegal, plenty of others unethical, to maintain and control everything it can.

Did you not read that he has naysayed every move the iPod made, making himself look like a fool quite a few times over, to add that to your assessment of how right you think he is?

If no one can hold onto market share forever (and I do feel this is a truism) one can only hope Microsuck will go down like the flaming bag of crap that it is too someday.

SiliconAddict
Oct 17, 2005, 11:18 AM
Joe Bob at ďJoeís Used CarsĒ just up the road from me said that the iPod was DOOOOOMED. Since heís got a pulse Iím going to assume heís an expert and that Apple better listen up or they are DOOOOOMED. I think people are right though because Iím getting more and more of these experts telling me the iPod is DOOOOOOMED. They canít all be wrong about the impending DOOOOOOMING.
I mean just the other day I was walking home from work and some panhandler on the side of the road, who use to work for zdnet as a columnist, looked at me and told me the iPod was DOOOOOMED and then asked for a dollar. He looked like an expert so I better take what he says at face value and assume that there is DOOOOOM occurring right now as I type this.

The moral of the story? The iPod is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED! We donít know when the DOOOOOOM is going to happen. It could be today. It could be tomorrow. It could be November 8. It could even be June 12th. But one thing we should take at face value from the experts: DOOOOOOOOOM is approaching and the owners of all iPods NEED to prepare for the DOOOOOMENING.

Repent all iPod lovers....DOOOM is upon us. We should all switch to WMA based players to avoid the upcoming DOOOOOOM.
.
.
.
DOOOOOOOM!!!

steelfist
Oct 17, 2005, 11:23 AM
I cooled off a little. :D

i hope you were not talking to me when you said about laying out the cheese some big spoon :rolleyes:

ok. now, this is a very imformative post, and not professional on any degree. no real statistical proof, just personal opinions: "ipod is ugly" "ipod sucks" i have never heard anything like that from a true "expert" if this guy is in court, the only evidence is his own opinions as a witness. not supportive at all.

I like the fact that you mention culture and emotions nobodybig, because that for some bizarre reason is inside of every mac perferer and ipod user. there is a sense of familly and comunity, not machines, hardware, and software. now there is a very big distinction between a guy with a hammer and a girl with a teddy bear. the guy just uses it like tools, and the teddy bear, although not a good example for usefulness, it is something that is lovable, something people love to be around with.

there ARE times when we are wrong, when i read that paul theorot predicted that apple will move to intel, i didn't believe it one bit. however, he didn't provide any real evidence why that is, and if he presented out the facts clearly (like intel does have a brighter and better future, can deliver better cooler power-conservative processers) i might have believed it a bit.

i just hate this guy's article because it is so biased, "outdated", illogical, and dosen't have any proof.

aarond12
Oct 17, 2005, 02:07 PM
I think it is mainly a big bold statement by the analyst to get added attention.

Attention whore. Nothing to see here. Move on...

-Aaron-

Analog Kid
Oct 17, 2005, 02:38 PM
Unless that market is computers, in which case Microshaft will use every tactic, many of which are illegal, plenty of others unethical, to maintain and control everything it can.

Did you not read that he has naysayed every move the iPod made, making himself look like a fool quite a few times over, to add that to your assessment of how right you think he is?

If no one can hold onto market share forever (and I do feel this is a truism) one can only hope Microsuck will go down like the flaming bag of crap that it is too someday.
You'll notice I said "most" markets... While there are 3 "major" players in the OS market (MS, Apple, Linux) that's kind of stretching the definition of "major"...

Being a fool in the past doesn't mean he can't have a point now-- and having a point now doesn't mean he'll be right in the end. It's a brand new market with lots of variables and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

dguisinger
Oct 17, 2005, 10:27 PM
To the poster who mentioned pioneers always end up not being in the final market.....that is true.

Isn't it great that Apple didn't pioneer music players?
Thats right, as popular as the iPod is......everyone seems to forget that besides Dell, Apple was the last player to the market! (Okay, i'm leaving out the koreans, but they currently dont have any traction).

So what does this tell us? Well, lets look closer:
I had two Diamond Rio's....which of course later got spun off from Diamond Multimedia. Rio just closed their doors recently. Pioneer, GONE

I had a Sony portable music player, played them damn ATRAC formated files....but sounded awsome.......but Sony didn't support open standards and fell flat on their face.......look at where Sony is now.....infact across the board Sony is starting to fail as a company....They just had a company wide shakeup because no one had a clue as to why in every single market they are starting to have the living crap beat out of them.

Apple isn't the inventor....they just tied all the knots so there were no more lose pieces. The more songs & videos with DRM they sell, the more future they have to the iPod.

Analog Kid
Oct 18, 2005, 04:49 AM
To the poster who mentioned pioneers always end up not being in the final market.....that is true.

Isn't it great that Apple didn't pioneer music players?
Thats right, as popular as the iPod is......everyone seems to forget that besides Dell, Apple was the last player to the market! (Okay, i'm leaving out the koreans, but they currently dont have any traction).

So what does this tell us? Well, lets look closer:
I had two Diamond Rio's....which of course later got spun off from Diamond Multimedia. Rio just closed their doors recently. Pioneer, GONE

I had a Sony portable music player, played them damn ATRAC formated files....but sounded awsome.......but Sony didn't support open standards and fell flat on their face.......look at where Sony is now.....infact across the board Sony is starting to fail as a company....They just had a company wide shakeup because no one had a clue as to why in every single market they are starting to have the living crap beat out of them.

Apple isn't the inventor....they just tied all the knots so there were no more lose pieces. The more songs & videos with DRM they sell, the more future they have to the iPod.
Of course! Since Apple wasn't first, their success is guaranteed!

And people say Winer's comments have no logic...