Apple Announces Long-Term Flash Memory Agreements

[MacRumors]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

Apple announced today (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2005/nov/21flash.html) that it has reached long term supply agreements with a number of memory supply companies including Hynix, Intel, Micro, Samsung Electronics and Toshiba.

Apple will prepay up to $1.25 billion for flash memory over the next three months. The agreements secure a supply of NAND flash memory through 2010.

"We want to be able to produce as many of our wildly popular iPods as the market demands," said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO.

Apple now uses Flash memory in two of the iPod models: the iPod shuffle (http://guides.macrumors.com/IPod_shuffle_%281G%29) and the iPod nano (http://guides.macrumors.com/IPod_nano_%281G%29). Recent reports (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2005/11/20051114112736.shtml) have hinted that Apple was seeking out more suppliers for the needed Flash memory components for their shuffle/nano iPod products. The traditional 5th Generation Video-capable iPod (http://guides.macrumors.com/IPod_%285G%29) still uses a hard drive for storage.

[Lacero]

Thats good news!

Going with different flash suppliers to prevent any anti-trust issues from cropping up in the future.

Can't wait for the iPod invisio!


edit: I beat iGary!!!!11!

[iGary]

Apple will prepay up to $1.25 billion for flash memory over the next three months.

PREPAY. :eek:

[Lacero]

PREPAY. :eek:
Hopefully not all of it at current market rates. ;)

[AoWolf]

Wow 1.25 Billion. I hope the iPod boom last till 2010.

[sushi]

Wow 1.25 Billion. I hope the iPod boom last till 2010.
By then we may see laptops using flash memory as part of their storage capability.

Sushi

[m-dogg]

Cool - When can I place my order for a 100GB flash memory iPod?!?!

:eek: :D

But seriously...when?

[VicMacs]

this should help the R&D part of those companies but why not invest in RAM? so that they dont sell it so frickin expensive!?

[alywa]

I have to think that laptops / desktops are the bigger reason for this huge flash investment. Instant boot, solid-state built-in backup, yeah that would be sweet. Just imagine how useful this could be.

-alywa

[bigandy]

wow that's some serious cash advance.

why won't they give it to me? :o

[MattG]

Nifty

When that mega-capacity Nano comes out, I'll be waiting in line :)

[Sun Baked]

PREPAY. :eek:The strange things you have to do to get a slice of the production at a decent price these days.

Big chunk of money today, but it should get Apple out of any future problems like their recent Samsung Flash Memory legal problems.

Hopefully handling it as a PrePay will keep the lawsuits at bay, unlike the old R&D investment deals.

Sure the price will be lower than market in the future, but in reality Apple has already pre-paid a portion of their future supply.

Also helps out the companies by giving them some money today to make use of for R&D.

Edit: Of course they will probably sue anyways, especially if Apple continues to secure flash memory at a price much lower than most other MP3 makers.

[andiwm2003]

flash based ibooks and powerbooks here we come. they a certainly planning only ipod stuff till 2010. this is bigger than that!:)

[nagromme]

By then we may see laptops using flash memory as part of their storage capability.

I'm waiting for just that :) With any luck, I'll only buy one more HD laptop!

A flash-based sub-subnotebook would be great. I'd accept reduced storage and other compromises. Just put OS X in my pocket! I'll plug into any old keyboard and display when I get to my destination.

[camomac]

maybe this will also mean that they are seriously considering a new shuttle design to go with all that memory... :)

[shadowmoses]

This means Apple have big Plans for flash memory, I am sure we will see it in high end intel mac's imagine how sweet it would be to have a powerbook with a 4gb Flash boot drive,

SHadow

[dernhelm]

flash based ibooks and powerbooks here we come. they a certainly planning only ipod stuff till 2010. this is bigger than that!:)

A full-flash based laptop would absolutely ROCK! Get startup times down to microseconds (wake from sleep is pretty close now, my PB wakes in just a little over a second) and you've got an APPLIANCE not just a COMPUTER.

[Apple]

Huge Hardrives baby!!!

I cant wait until were talkin Terabytes on laptops.

Kind of like mailnation.net

[AidenShaw]

A full-flash based laptop would absolutely ROCK! Get startup times down to microseconds (wake from sleep is pretty close now, my PB wakes in just a little over a second) and you've got an APPLIANCE not just a COMPUTER.
Flash has a hard time keeping up with spinning drives in the MB/sec race.

You won't get usec wakeups just from switching to flash.

You'll get much better battery life, however!

[GetSome681]

It's amazing how many of you have no idea what you're talking about.

Flash memory, in its current form, will never be used to replace hard drives or RAM. The current forms of flash memory all have a finite lifespan dictated by a certain number of writes/rewrites. Think of how many times files are altered in any way on your hard drive or how many times the contents of your system memory change. This has nothing to do with some magical implementation in powerbooks/etc.

For your viewing pleasure:
http://www.commsdesign.com/design_corner/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=16502199

[CanadaRAM]

PREPAY. :eek:
Apple's got a bazillion dolars of cash in hand. I'm sure the prices are heavily discounted, and all the accountants have done their Present Value calculations to make sure Apple's rate of return on the money will be well in excess of what they can make investing it.

Sounds like a smart move, tie up their supply, make it harder for competitors buying on the sport market, be able to develop future product with assured component availability..

[iGary]

Apple's got a bazillion dolars of cash in hand. I'm sure the prices are heavily discounted, and all the accountants have done their Present Value calculations to make sure Apple's rate of return on the money will be well in excess of what they can make investing it.

Sounds like a smart move, tie up their supply, make it harder for competitors buying on the sport market, be able to develop future product with assured component availability..

Yeah I know, but that just goes to show you how important keeping their supply chain filled is. That's almost 25% of their on hand cash.

[Macmaniac]

Thats a huge chunk of change, although Apple has over $5 billion in the bank, so this makes it a good investment, considering how popular the iPod has been. I doubt we will see a flash based laptop from Apple, it does not yet make good economic sense.

[syklee26]

It's amazing how many of you have no idea what you're talking about.

Flash memory, in its current form, will never be used to replace hard drives or RAM. The current forms of flash memory all have a finite lifespan dictated by a certain number of writes/rewrites. Think of how many times files are altered in any way on your hard drive or how many times the contents of your system memory change. This has nothing to do with some magical implementation in powerbooks/etc.


while it is true that flash will never completely replace hard drive, it is possible to have flash drive installed along with hard drive. hard drive for operation purpose and big flash drive just to store media files to minimize battery usage.

[Lacero]

The flash memory could be used to store OSX system files for fast startups with the HD used to store temporary files. Hot-file clustering to increase battery life and reliability.

[Abstract]

Yeah, I see this announcement as a big deal.

And while they say it's for the Shuffle and Nano, I don't believe that's the only reason Apple needs to secure so much Flash memory.

[neilw]

Yeah I know, but that just goes to show you how important keeping their supply chain filled is. That's almost 25% of their on hand cash.

Apple is currently sitting on $8.25 billion in cash, according to Yahoo. They've basically been printing money for the last couple of years. $1.25 billion is a reasonable price to pay for assurances that they'll be able to keep printing, and will still leave them with a cool $7 billion.

Besides, Apples invests is cash pile *very* conservatively. This is as good a use for it as any.

[lou tsee]

It's amazing how many of you have no idea what you're talking about.

Flash memory, in its current form, will never be used to replace hard drives or RAM. The current forms of flash memory all have a finite lifespan dictated by a certain number of writes/rewrites. Think of how many times files are altered in any way on your hard drive or how many times the contents of your system memory change. This has nothing to do with some magical implementation in powerbooks/etc.

For your viewing pleasure:
http://www.commsdesign.com/design_corner/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=16502199

nobody said they were gonna use NAND in laptops (it's far to slow to replace HDrives - besides from being unreliable), but possibly some future technology. macrumors had a thread recently about a new flash-memory technology whis was said to be as fast as static RAM!
So let's wait and see. The days of HD are numbered of that I'm sure...

[backspinner]

Let's calculate. If Apple gets 1 GB for an average price of $25 in this deal, that 3 months $1.25 billion makes worth of 50 million GB. This is enough for about 20 million iPods (shuffle, nano) in various capacities.

That is not in sync with the current buying rate. So or they are indeed paying in advance or they have another usage for it.

[CanadaRAM]

Yeah I know, but that just goes to show you how important keeping their supply chain filled is. That's almost 25% of their on hand cash.
Maybe they learned some lessons: Some of Apple's most spectacular market failures have been due to component shortages. The infamous G4 "downgrade" exercise being particularly painful.

And if they don't get off their @$$=$ and deliver some iMac G5's in Canada over a month after the orders were placed, they will have some very p!$$=& off customers.

[EricNau]

Yeah, I see this announcement as a big deal.

And while they say it's for the Shuffle and Nano, I don't believe that's the only reason Apple needs to secure so much Flash memory.

I totally agree. Apple may sell a lot of iPods, but they still wouldn't need this much flash memory prepaid. I think Apple has a new product in the works.
Maybe they are bringing back the Newtons! :p

[kwajo.com]

well I hope apple can sustain the iPod sales, because pre-ordering 1 and a quarter billion dollars of anything seems to be an act of faith if ever there was one

[tutubibi]

Let's calculate. If Apple gets 1 GB for an average price of $25 in this deal, that 3 months $1.25 billion makes worth of 50 million GB. This is enough for about 20 million iPods (shuffle, nano) in various capacities.

That is not in sync with the current buying rate. So or they are indeed paying in advance or they have another usage for it.

That's 50 M GB untill 2010. So it's like 50 M shuffles sold till 2010, not counting capacity increases in upcoming models. Nothing extreme.
Apple will probably spend more than 1.25 B in flash memeory in the next 2 years for iPods only if sales projections hold up.

[Photorun]

Thats a huge chunk of change, although Apple has over $5 billion in the bank, so this makes it a good investment, considering how popular the iPod has been.

Actually last time I checked Apple has 7.1 billion in the bank, still, to blow through close to 1.5 billion of it just to secure flash output better the hell mean some deals to be first in line with some of these producers latest and greatest if not exclusive arrangements or what the hell is the point really?

[AidenShaw]

nobody said they were gonna use NAND in laptops (it's far to slow to replace HDrives - besides from being unreliable), but possibly some future technology. macrumors had a thread recently about a new flash-memory technology whis was said to be as fast as static RAM!
So let's wait and see. The days of HD are numbered of that I'm sure...
Think different (or - think like Intel's future products, not Apple's past products)....

Intel Boosts Storage Performance with NAND Flash Cache. (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storage/display/20051018191439.html)

According to PCWorld.com web-site, the Robson technology with 128MB cache ensured “immediate” startup of an Intel Centrino notebook and also significantly boosted boot-up time for other programs. For example, the laptop with Robson opened Adobe Reader in 0.4 seconds, while the other notebook required 5.4 seconds. It opened Quicken in 2.9 seconds, while the laptop without Robson technology needed 8 seconds to do the job.

Huge Flash cache also allows to decrease power consumption as well as reliability of storage sub-system, as HDD’s media is accessed less often. While conventional HDDs usually use dynamic random access memory (DRAM) devices as cache, which are faster compared to Flash, the size of such cache does not generally exceed 16MB.
There are lots of possibilities:

cache frequently used files (especially the program files needed to boot)
do predictive readahead (if you start photoshop, load all the photoshop application files that you touched the last time you ran photoshop)
cache writes so that the disk won't have to spin up every time there's a write


You can also control where the cache chunks are, to spread the write "wear" out and avoid "burning out" a particular section. Add strong ECC, and you won't even care when large numbers of bad sections appear in the cache.

[Fender2112]

An iTunes phone perhaps is in the near future. Also with technologies such as RAM disks and fuel cells becoming available, I think we'll see some really kickass laptops in the next few years.

[Mainyehc]

I totally agree. Apple may sell a lot of iPods, but they still wouldn't need this much flash memory prepaid. I think Apple has a new product in the works.
Maybe they are bringing back the Newtons! :p

The Apple iPhone, anyone??

Many people speculated about whether the Motorola phones with iTunes were just a "rehearsal" for the big act: the iPhone...

Hey, I'm wildly speculating here, but just yesterday, I was looking at a Nokia brochure, and I thought "gee, they have like, 20 or 30 different models, with appealing names like 6680 or 6021... which one would fit my needs?" (not that I'm in the market for a new cell phone, but anyway...). And then I realised, that's precisely the way Sony cranks out DAPs (and other consumer electronics stuff), which, IMHO, isn't as good an approach as Apple's...

Now, why did cell phones always sell like mad anyway, while DAPs were a stagnant market until the advent of the iPod? Simple: cell phones are essential items, without which people can't live without, whereas music players, whichever their media, are not...

IF Apple can make people buy superfluous goods like iPods - and they're sure making one hell of a job at it -, they can surely make people buy intuitive, beautifully styled cell phones! Because... as I said, people NEED cell phones, and they sure like 'em as stylish as possible!

This kind of gadget would become the ultimate Double and Reciprocal Halo Effect™ generator! iPods driving people to iPhones, iPhones driving people to iPods, and then, iPods and iPhones driving people to increasingly affordable Intel-based Macs... Hmmm, sounds plausible...

Add iTunes licensing to cell phone brands other than Moto to the mix, and you know, besides showing a lot of good karma, Apple would get great press, and avoid potential antitrust issues in the future. Okay, maybe this approach would probably cannibalize small capacity iPod sales (nano & shuffle), but with an iPhone on the market, Apple could easily recover part of the profits...

Either way, just imagine, phone carriers offering iPhones at near-zero cost (through credits and such), and Apple profiting from both those sales and exploding iTMS sales (as if they weren't exploding already, eh)...!

So, here comes the speculation part: MAYBE that's where all that flash memory is going into... iPhones!... This is all wishful thinking, but if Apple introduced a fairly comprehensive range of iPhones (maybe 5 different ones, as oposed to the 20+ Nokia models :p ), I would seriously consider getting one, if not for the user interface and industrial design alone, as I'd probably keep my 1GB shuffle and my 20GB 3G (soon to be replaced by a 60GB iPod w/video :D )... Seriously, how many of you in these forums wouldn't? And... how many happy iPod owners wouldn't!!??

Think about it, you heard it here first! (although everyone has been talking about iPhones and reborn Newtons since... ages! :cool: )

edit: eh, Fender2112 beat me to it :o (but I called it an iPhone anyway! :D )

[cuzog]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

supply companies including Hynix, Intel, Micro, Samsung Electronics and Toshiba.
Just in case people are confused, it is Micron, not Micro.

[Fiveos22]

It's amazing how many of you have no idea what you're talking about.

Flash memory, in its current form, will never be used to replace hard drives or RAM. The current forms of flash memory all have a finite lifespan dictated by a certain number of writes/rewrites. Think of how many times files are altered in any way on your hard drive or how many times the contents of your system memory change. This has nothing to do with some magical implementation in powerbooks/etc.

For your viewing pleasure:
http://www.commsdesign.com/design_corner/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=16502199


If not as a hard drive replacement, maybe as a place to put the operating system. No one is going to rewrite the operating system enough times to wear out flash (that would be one hell of a feat). Think about how fast boot times would be.

[sjo]

This is all wishful thinking, but if Apple introduced a fairly comprehensive range of iPhones (maybe 5 different ones, as oposed to the 20+ Nokia models :p )

well nokia sold 200m phones last quarter whereas Apple sold 6.5m ipods. I'm sure there will be 20+ ipod models when they reach the 200m/q mark ;)

[aussie_geek]

Far out!!! :eek: That's a hell of alot of chips people. Apple is definitely trying to monopolise the market. One way to beat the competition is to deny your rivals the raw materials!!!!

Go Apple


aussie_geek

[aafuss1]

Good to see Intel is in.

[Yvan256]

Apple will prepay up to $1.25 billion for flash memory over the next three months.

That's $1.25b in three months, people. Talk about money spent in a flash.

[Yvan256]

If not as a hard drive replacement, maybe as a place to put the operating system. No one is going to rewrite the operating system enough times to wear out flash (that would be one hell of a feat). Think about how fast boot times would be.

And maybe also part of the "hardware lock-out" for those x86 boxes...? :confused:

[EricNau]

Far out!!! :eek: That's a hell of alot of chips people. Apple is definitely trying to monopolise the market. One way to beat the competition is to deny your rivals the raw materials!!!!

Go Apple


aussie_geek
I guess that's a possibility, but no matter how many chips Apple buys, there are still plenty out there for other companies to buy.

I'm still thinking Apple has a new product up their sleeve.

[EricNau]

The Apple iPhone, anyone??

I think it is unlikely, but it could happen...maybe.

I would love to have an iPhone.

[Yvan256]

Unless it's for a 20GB flash iPod, it makes no sense (can't be all the iPod shuffle and iPod nano they're selling). An iPhone wouldn't have more memory than an iPod shuffle either.

So I'll throw my old idea in this again: this is for a Palm-sized portable computer (full version of OS X, not some stripped-down, useless crap that requires its own "OS X lite" versions of software).

Low-power Intel processor, low-res (800x600 or 1024x768) touch-screen display (OLED?), flash storage (with enough room for OS X, iLife, iWork, 10 to 20GB of data). Built-in S-Video output (for presentations, movie playback), USB2 ports, small keyboard, etc...

Since Palm left the market, it only leaves Microsoft and their PocketPCs... which require their own versions of everything (and also has a multiple CPUs mess which doesn't help).

Apple could enter that market and redefine it (like they did with the iPod), portable computing the way it should be (small, portable but still the same software as on your desktop computer).

[pubwvj]

Perhaps they are not just thinking about iPods. It would be interesting to do an iBook with a flash drive... Or perhaps an iPal.

[thejadedmonkey]

iPhone, iPhone...here's the thing with an iPhone

the iPod nano is currently selling at 2 and 4 gigabyte sizes. an iPhone couldn't debut with anything greater than 2 gigs worth of space without canabalizing nano sales. THEREFORE, Apple will need to raise the nano's capacity. They'll probably do two models, at either 4, 6, or 8 gigabyte sizes. That will leave room for an iPhone that has upto 2 gigs of space.

Low-power Intel processor, low-res (800x600 or 1024x768) touch-screen display (OLED?), flash storage (with enough room for OS X, iLife, iWork, 10 to 20GB of data). Built-in S-Video output (for presentations, movie playback), USB2 ports, small keyboard, etc...
Now as for having a pocket mac, with OS X on it and everything, here's the problem: If they didn't put 20 gig flash drives in their ipods, why would they do that for a pocket PC. dream on, but not for 2005/06

what I can see, however, is a mac that boots a basic version of OS X up in the time it takes to spin up a hard drive, so that your system can be mostly booted up within 5 seconds.

P.S. What's an iPal?

[EricNau]

Unless it's for a 20GB flash iPod, it makes no sense (can't be all the iPod shuffle and iPod nano they're selling). An iPhone wouldn't have more memory than an iPod shuffle either.

So I'll throw my old idea in this again: this is for a Palm-sized portable computer (full version of OS X, not some stripped-down, useless crap that requires its own "OS X lite" versions of software).

Low-power Intel processor, low-res (800x600 or 1024x768) touch-screen display (OLED?), flash storage (with enough room for OS X, iLife, iWork, 10 to 20GB of data). Built-in S-Video output (for presentations, movie playback), USB2 ports, small keyboard, etc...

Since Palm left the market, it only leaves Microsoft and their PocketPCs... which require their own versions of everything (and also has a multiple CPUs mess which doesn't help).

Apple could enter that market and redefine it (like they did with the iPod), portable computing the way it should be (small, portable but still the same software as on your desktop computer).

Maybe an iPhone wouldn't have that much more memory in it, but it is one more product that apple would need Flash Chips for.

I do like the idea of a Palm Sized Computer, that can run like a full sized laptop - it would be very cool - but we can only hope. (I really doubt we'll ever see one)

[EricNau]

iPhone, iPhone...here's the thing with an iPhone

the iPod nano is currently selling at 2 and 4 gigabyte sizes. an iPhone couldn't debut with anything greater than 2 gigs worth of space without canabalizing nano sales. THEREFORE, Apple will need to raise the nano's capacity. They'll probably do two models, at either 4, 6, or 8 gigabyte sizes. That will leave room for an iPhone that has upto 2 gigs of space. They did that with the Mini iPod, right about the time the Shuffle came out (I think).


Now as for having a pocket mac, with OS X on it and everything, here's the problem: If they didn't put 20 gig flash drives in their ipods, why would they do that for a pocket PC. dream on, but not for 2005/06
You are probably right - but it would be so cool!

what I can see, however, is a mac that boots a basic version of OS X up in the time it takes to spin up a hard drive, so that your system can be mostly booted up within 5 seconds.
What's the point?

[thejadedmonkey]

so that your system can be mostly booted up within 5 seconds.

Apologies, I was thinking in a windows world where you have to reboot every day or two.

[Photorun]

iPhone, iPhone...here's the thing with an iPhone.

iPhone, iPhone... keep dreaming people 'cause that's all iPhone will ever be... a dream, and a misguided, disaster, more like a nightmare if Apple tried to enter that market.

What do you people expect, Apple to start from scratch as a national carrier, the current market is both saturated and imploding with mergers, big ulgy ones. Therefore they'd need to sell their phone to carriers, which that too is a tight, tight market between Samsung, Moto, and Qualcomm (don't mention others, they're mostly actuallly made by those big three). Apple hasn't any leverage in the matter, additionally their Moto iTunes phone didn't exactly take the world by storm. People have said/done again and again that, basically, they want their portable phone to be just that... a phone at best, or a messaging device. Sure there is a demographic that loves the gadget, but it's small, it's not high in profit nor profile. The R&D for phones is staggering. It's just not a smart market to enter into... unless one enjoys failure.

[Photorun]

Apologies, I was thinking in a windows world where you have to reboot every day or two.

Or in the cases of the computer lab at our campus it's sometimes hourly, if the system boots up at all, if it's not crippled by spyware despite the incompetent IT department's firewalls (who gets a kickback for every Dull they sell, hence, the amount of Dulls, not to mention if the campus went all Mac the IT department would have to lay off 65% of it's staff as not needed). Though to Windoze credit, we have been running Uptime Clock (http://www.softpedia.com/get/System/System-Info/Windows-Uptime.shtml) and an assistant noted on XPee machine made it four days without incident. Meanwhile I can point to some eMacs that haven't been off since the last power failure a month ago.

[maya]

The instant excitement of having an Apple branded:

1. iPhone
2. iPDA (Newton 2)
3. Some other fangled thing...

is great and all for a few months if not years. After that that excitement wears off and the market for the above listed products trickles down.

Seems the only reason Apple would even secure so much flash in such a short time is for the iPod line (iPod original is going flash soon), some even thinner notebooks with security on flash built-in for the OS, etc...

Do I believe that this flash memory will replace HD's not as of yet, we have been too accustom to a certain level of performance and speed in access time for files that if we are hit with a slowdown in performance we cannot handle it for long. Eventually yes, not yet though. Would be nice though. :)

iPod line revise and some new product is the only thing that comes to mind. ;) :)

[muffinman]

i just can't wait for a flash-based video ipod or something in that vicinity. That would be awesome.

And its great that samsung is back in partnership with apple

[billyboy]

They seem to be pretty clever at Apple and seem to learn from their mistakes quite quickly, ie they gambled on IBM and became the poor relation far down IBM's pecking order of priorities and had no weight really to get things moving. This time Apple just invested in a few companies and as well as securing lots of product to meet current demand, they have teams of people competing hard in state of the art research and development into flash drives - technology that Apple design people can put in "orders" for to slot into different innovative product ideas that they have been, or will be dreaming up over the next few years.

[EricNau]

iPhone, iPhone... keep dreaming people 'cause that's all iPhone will ever be... a dream, and a misguided, disaster, more like a nightmare if Apple tried to enter that market.

What do you people expect, Apple to start from scratch as a national carrier, the current market is both saturated and imploding with mergers, big ulgy ones. Therefore they'd need to sell their phone to carriers, which that too is a tight, tight market between Samsung, Moto, and Qualcomm (don't mention others, they're mostly actuallly made by those big three). Apple hasn't any leverage in the matter, additionally their Moto iTunes phone didn't exactly take the world by storm. People have said/done again and again that, basically, they want their portable phone to be just that... a phone at best, or a messaging device. Sure there is a demographic that loves the gadget, but it's small, it's not high in profit nor profile. The R&D for phones is staggering. It's just not a smart market to enter into... unless one enjoys failure.

I don't think anyone was implying that Apple would become a carrier, more like Apple would sell their "iPhones" to carriers (ie: Verizon, Cingular, etc.)
Why is it so hard to believe that they might make a Cell Phone? Everyone knows the iPods to be "the best" mp3 player on the market, why wouldn't someone buy a phone made by the same great company?

[Super Dave]

On a side note, Apple mentioned in the press release that over 30 million iPods had been sold since 2001. What was the total as of the last quarter?

David:cool:

[AidenShaw]

why wouldn't someone buy a phone made by the same great company?
Maybe because they'd assume that the phone would have the same tie-ins to the proprietary media outlet as the "mp3" players?

Or maybe because they'd assume that the phone would be horribly scratched within days of being purchased?

Or maybe because they're absolutely sick of tacky white plastic devices?

Or maybe on the "style vs. substance" debate they'd prefer substance?

Not all the world thinks like the fanbois....

[oskar]

How can so many think this means we'll see hard drives replaced by flash memory? Solid state memory is still too expensive. There are tons of articles you can find about new technologies and how cheap and small everything is going to be, but the reality is that it's not cheap enough yet and won't be for a while. I bet many prefer a 60GB iPod instead of an 8GB or iPod half the size at the same price.
Apple could of course use all this along with hard drives but not as a replacement. We have to see a flash based iPod, before we see any laptop hard drives replaced by flash drives.
Or how about my Apple PDA? :D

[EricNau]

Maybe because they'd assume that the phone would have the same tie-ins to the proprietary media outlet as the "mp3" players?

Or maybe because they'd assume that the phone would be horribly scratched within days of being purchased?

Or maybe because they're absolutely sick of tacky white plastic devices?

Or maybe on the "style vs. substance" debate they'd prefer substance?

Not all the world thinks like the fanbois....
If your opinion is "true" then I guess 85% of the world;

Doesn't care about scratches
love the "tacky white plastic devices"
would choose style over substance


Let the market share speak for itself

[Sun Baked]

With all the possible uses for it that people are talking about.

No wonder Apple wants to secure a supply now, before somebody else decides to move in line ahead of them.

Should really make people complain more than they did about the Samsung deal. :(

[EricNau]

Originally Posted by GetSome681
It's amazing how many of you have no idea what you're talking about.

Flash memory, in its current form, will never be used to replace hard drives or RAM. The current forms of flash memory all have a finite lifespan dictated by a certain number of writes/rewrites. Think of how many times files are altered in any way on your hard drive or how many times the contents of your system memory change. This has nothing to do with some magical implementation in powerbooks/etc.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4445060.stm
They have a 500MHz processor, with flash memory instead of a hard drive which has more delicate moving parts, and four USB ports. They link up and share a net connection through "mesh networking".
Would you like to revise your statement? ;)

[winmacguy]

Hopefully not all of it at current market rates. ;)
Knowing Steves legendary ability to negotiate a VERY good deal with component suppliers I would imagine that Apple got very good(read 'unbeatable by its competitors') volume discounts.;)

[MacViolinist]

Is it possible that Apple doesn't really care so much about the flash memory and is really investing the money amongst the various companies in order to maybe get a deal with them regarding the first availability of some new technology like holographic mass storage? We know it's out there, and we know it's only a matter of time before it becomes available. Maybe it's coming sooner than we think and Apple wants it first, as in, waaaaaay before any of the competition.

[EricNau]

Is it possible that Apple doesn't really care so much about the flash memory and is really investing the money amongst the various companies in order to maybe get a deal with them regarding the first availability of some new technology like holographic mass storage? We know it's out there, and we know it's only a matter of time before it becomes available. Maybe it's coming sooner than we think and Apple wants it first, as in, waaaaaay before any of the competition.

Then why would it waste all of its money on Flash? :confused:

[dontmatter]

I don't know enough about details of flash memory, in terms of price, capacity, where it is going/can go, and whether it is a given that apple will be able to use up all of this memory, but, i have one major impression from all this.

Flash memory, from what I can tell, is a very fluctuating and dynamic market and technology. Some things, say, cloth, for instance, you know what the market is. It has X uses, for Y people, giving it a growth rate of Z, the supply is growing like A, so, basically, we know exactly what a good deal is going to be in 2010. There will be no revolutions in manufacturing, no revolutions in raw material supply, and no revolutions in uses and demand.

But my oh my, this is not true of flash! there is so much it could be put to use for, and so much it could not end up in that people think it might. There is so much of the world market left to buy or not buy existing flash products. It's manufacture is certainly not without it's variables.

Which is to say, it's a risky buisness sign deals for flash for 5 years down the road. Would you be willing to bet on the price of a barrel of oil in 5 years, with, say, a 5% margin for error? I sure wouldn't. Isn't that what enron tried to do, along with all the book cooking?

So this LARGE portion of apple's assets spent all in one place, on something with a lot of uncertainty, is a BIG DEAL. From it, one or more of three things must be true:

A) Apple is securing the supply to the minimum they might need, but nowhere near what they intend to use in flash memory, so if they overpay it won't be nearly so damaging.
B) Apple has a KILLER deal. And I mean KILLER, because if they're doing this, they're already assuming they'll buy a hell of a lot of flash, and as evidenced by the samsung deal, bulk buying means power and cheap prices. So this would have to be KILLER.
C). Apple is being stupid.


I hope it is option B, or B and A.

[ksz]

It's interesting to note that Intel and Micron announced an agreement to create a new Flash Memory (NAND) joint venture that will supply Apple. Intel and Micron are investing $1.2 Billion each. The new company will be called IM Flash Technologies, with Micron being the majority owner (51%). Intel and Micron may invest another $1.4 Billion each over the next 3 years.

Apple has prepaid $250 Million to Intel and another $250 Million to Micron.

http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,123648,00.asp

The new firm, to be called IM Flash Technologies, will exclusively produce flash memory for Intel and Micron targeting the consumer electronics, removable storage, and handheld communication device markets, according to a joint release from the companies. Intel and Micron will each contribute around $1.2 billion to the joint venture, with each likely to invest an additional $1.4 billion over the next three years.

Intel and Micron hope to finalize the formation of IM Flash by year-end, subject to unspecified closing conditions. The two companies also announced that, subject to the closing of the new company, they have each entered into separate long-term agreements to provide Apple with a "significant portion" of IM Flash's NAND flash memory, according to the release. Apple is to prepay $250 million each to Intel and Micron, the release stated.

IM Flash will be 51 percent owned by Micron and 49 percent owned by Intel, according to the release. Initial production of IM Flash's NAND flash memory will occur in manufacturing operations in Boise, Idaho; Manassas, Virginia; and Lehi, Utah. The first products from IM Flash are likely to appear in early 2006.

[MacViolinist]

Then why would it waste all of its money on Flash? :confused:

Mainly because it is going to need the flash. Buying in bulk in advance might allow some of the involved companies to accelerate their R&D in other mass storage areas. Not that Intel is short on money, but it could be that a large infusion of cash could motivate them to ramp up their efforts. Obviously, this could lead to Apple getting a competitive edge when they come up with a usable product.

The point is not what Apple is buying, per se. The point is what the companies are doing with the revenue from the sale. This is the only reason I can think of for an advance purchase. Companies can negotiate supply deals without payment up front.

[EricNau]

Mainly because it is going to need the flash. Buying in bulk in advance might allow some of the involved companies to accelerate their R&D in other mass storage areas. Not that Intel is short on money, but it could be that a large infusion of cash could motivate them to ramp up their efforts. Obviously, this could lead to Apple getting a competitive edge when they come up with a usable product.

The point is not what Apple is buying, per se. The point is what the companies are doing with the revenue from the sale. This is the only reason I can think of for an advance purchase. Companies can negotiate supply deals without payment up front.
I see

I doubt it; but I guess anything is possible in the world of Appe :)

[MacViolinist]

I see

I doubt it; but I guess anything is possible in the world of Appe :)

I kind of doubt it as well. I'm not really given to wild-eyed speculation, but it strikes me that something must be up for Apple to spend a significant percentage of its cash in such a short time period.

I don't buy the iPhone idea and I don't really buy the iTablet idea either. Neither one of those products has the ambiance of a real Apple innovation. The phone market is something that others can do as well or better than Apple and licensing requires almost no investment from Apple. They are better off profiting from other's R&D. The tablet pc market is even more niche than what Apple already is, so I don't see them going there.

If Apple can make an investment that would guarantee first dibs on an emerging technology...well that has the ring of innovation that we have come to expect.

All that said, this is nothing more than wild-eyed speculation. Initially, I was just asking a question, and I still am basically doing just that.

The probable answer is a resounding "no." Then again, the probable response to most of what has been suggested on this thread is the same. But hey, it would be cool.

[EricNau]

I kind of doubt it as well. I'm not really given to wild-eyed speculation, but it strikes me that something must be up for Apple to spend a significant percentage of its cash in such a short time period.

I don't buy the iPhone idea and I don't really buy the iTablet idea either. Neither one of those products has the ambiance of a real Apple innovation. The phone market is something that others can do as well or better than Apple and licensing requires almost no investment from Apple. They are better off profiting from other's R&D. The tablet pc market is even more niche than what Apple already is, so I don't see them going there.

If Apple can make an investment that would guarantee first dibs on an emerging technology...well that has the ring of innovation that we have come to expect.

All that said, this is nothing more than wild-eyed speculation. Initially, I was just asking a question, and I still am basically doing just that.

The probable answer is a resounding "no." Then again, the probable response to most of what has been suggested on this thread is the same. But hey, it would be cool.

I agree that Apple probably has something up their sleeve, I just have no idea what it could be. iPhones are unlikely because it would be hard to jump into a market such as that (like you said). I'm just thinking it has to be something along the lines of a PDA, because that would need a lot of Flash memory. (that's the only thing I can think of that would use that much).
Or maybe the 6th generation iPods will have 30 GB Flash (very doubtful)

OR MAYBE...JUST MAYBE... apple just wanted to secure enough for their Shuffles and Nanos for years to come. Who Knows! :confused:

[phawksworth]

All this talk of new products and flash-based laptops is leaving me dizzy!

I'd be first in line for an Apple phone if it was done with the usual attention to detail and usability we have come to expect from Apple. I'm tired of mobile phones trying to do too much and ending up with nasty UIs. A nice, sleek Apple phone would suit me just fine. If it happened to come stuffed to the brim with flash memory and with an iPod-esque interface for placing my music, that wouldn't be so bad either.

Imagine how smoothly it could intgrate with your mac. iTunes, Address book, Calendar, iPhoto and Mail syncing? Yes please!

I'm not going to hold my breath though.

[Kozmicstu]

Could a flash drive not be used as a dedicated boot disk - OSX x86 will only boot from a specific flash drive and therefore will only boot on a Mac, sort of thing?

Stu

[pubwvj]

How can so many think this means we'll see hard drives replaced by flash memory? Solid state memory is still too expensive.

Ha, ha, ha, ha!!! That is such a good laugh!!!

Why, young-un, I remember way back in 1984 people saying the exact same thing as you are now - only then they were talking about bubble memories, same idea. Back then a big hard drive was 10MB. YES! 10,485,000 bytes! That is smaller than the smallest flash memory drives are now and it cost $600 in 1983 dollars! Make that $4,000 in 2005 dollars. For that $4,000 you can now buy 55GB of Flash memory. Dollar for dollar Flash memory is incredibly cheap compared to where hard drives were.

Of course, hard drives have also dropped in price and for that $4,000 you can now buy 40TB of hard drive. So yes, hard drives are cheaper, but they consume more power, are larger, noisier and are more fragile. For certain application the slightly higher cost is well worth the price and not all devices need huge amounts of storage.

A tiny iBook or pocket handheld iPal with a mere 16GB or storage space would be plenty for highly mobile work. Within a year the price of that would be under $400 at the current rate of decline in Flash memory prices. That is enough to store:

2GB - MacOS X operating system
2GB - Applications (most frequently used on an uber-book)
4GB - Home folder - generous and not including music, videos, photos
2GB - Recent photos (archive past years on external drive)
2GB - Music (most played songs and audio books)
2GB - Video or two for the road
---
2G free space remaining

You don't have to store everything on the ultra-portable, just your most used data. At home or maybe on the web you would have additional storage for archived photos, additional music, movies, backups, etc.

This means that a Flash memory based ultra-portable notebook or handheld computer could be a reality at a decent price point using today's technology. It would be fast, small, lower power, longer battery life and real world rugged. There are a lot of people who would buy a machine like that. Think of something about the size of a small paperback book that has a run time of 40 hours or longer on four high capacity AA NiMH batteries. Very portable. Your home away from Home. Auto-syncing of course. :)

[AidenShaw]

That is enough to store:

2GB - MacOS X operating system
2GB - Applications (most frequently used on an uber-book)
4GB - Home folder - generous and not including music, videos, photos
2GB - Recent photos (archive past years on external drive)
2GB - Music (most played songs and audio books)
2GB - Video or two for the road
---
2G free space remaining

You don't have to store everything on the ultra-portable, just your most used data. At home or maybe on the web you would have additional storage for archived photos, additional music, movies, backups, etc.
The flash-based Windows Mobile devices like the iPaq and SmartPhones use a rich, compatible subset of NT.

These run in 128MiB or so of flash, with much of that free for user apps and data.

They'll typically have an SD or CF card for a few GB or so of application data space (or music, movies, etc).
_________________________

A really small device doesn't need a full OS - its UI constraints and small screen make it unsuitable for many applications. A device the size of a small paperback can't replace a 20" iMac for most applications.

Your description would be fine for an 8" to 10" or so screen on an ultra-portable, but for a PDA/phone form factor it wouldn't be necessary or useful to have full OSX.

[EricNau]

Could a flash drive not be used as a dedicated boot disk - OSX x86 will only boot from a specific flash drive and therefore will only boot on a Mac, sort of thing?

Stu

I don't know much about this stuff, but for this idea to really work, it would need to be 'Read Only' - that way you couldn't just copy it and put it on a Windows. Now what if there was an update? Would you have to take it into the Apple store and have them swap out Flash Chips?

And if that Flash fails - goodbye OS, hello genius bar.

[pubwvj]

A really small device doesn't need a full OS - its UI constraints and small screen make it unsuitable for many applications. A device the size of a small paperback can't replace a 20" iMac for most applications. Your description would be fine for an 8" to 10" or so screen on an ultra-portable, but for a PDA/phone form factor it wouldn't be necessary or useful to have full OSX.

Agreed. I was simply pointing out that even a full size OS could fit on a Flash device for a reasonable price. Personally, I would love to see Apple come out with MacOSXµ for a pocket Mac - my dreamed of iPal. It doesn't need to be able to run Halo or Photoshop so I'm not expecting G5 speeds. There is a lot from the OS that could be chopped to save space. It could probably be reduced down to 1GB or at most 4GB total storage space with OS, apps, µHome, music, photos, a video, etc. The idea is to have a portable version of one's most important data, a subset of the Home folder with complete syncing capability to one's real machine (e.g., a PowerBook for me, an iMac for my son, a PowerMac for those who use them, etc). A machine you can carry in your pocket that will let you access your basic data set and do email, web, etc when WiFi is available.

For the iBook I would forsee it being a very lightweight, very rugged, very lower wattage machine that would have an increadible battery life. A lot of people would like something like that. Same form factor as the current iBook but thinner and longer lasting on battery.

[AidenShaw]

...The idea is to have a portable version of one's most important data, a subset of the Home folder with complete syncing capability to one's real machine.... A machine you can carry in your pocket that will let you access your basic data set and do email, web, etc when WiFi is available.
Agree - this is just what Windows Mobile is today - except that WiFi is passé.

My Windows Mobile phone with EVDO from Verizon does all this at DSL speeds whenever I'm within the range of a cell tower.... Word/Excel/Powerpoint/MediaPlayer/Streets plus hundreds of other apps are at hand, synching with my PC.

Of course, it also has WiFi for those times when I'm within the limited range of a 802.11b/g access point.

It's so nice to be able to download at 1Mbps while on Caltrain going up to the city, or to bring up IE on the phone and check prices or product specs while shopping at Fry's. It would be so primitive to imagine that I'd need to be close to a WiFi access point to use the net.

Before too long, Apple will need to put OSX Mobile on the iNewton - or they'll miss out on a fundamental sea-change in personal computing. It may already be too late, at least if they want to reach beyond the Mac fans.

[dernhelm]

Flash has a hard time keeping up with spinning drives in the MB/sec race.

You won't get usec wakeups just from switching to flash.

You'll get much better battery life, however!

I guess I was referring to this:
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,123053,00.asp

The guys at the macslash website picked up on this as well...

[pubwvj]

Agree - this is just what Windows Mobile is today - except that WiFi is passé. My Windows Mobile phone with EVDO from Verizon does all this at DSL speeds whenever I'm within the range of a cell tower...

The problem is cell towers are not available out in rural areas and they cost money to use. I don't have a cell phone. I don't pay a monthly cell phone subscription and don't to be doing so just to transfer data over the network. WiFi has the advantage of being accessible in my home as well as in many urban areas. Cell is actually far more passé than WiFi in a great many respects. Of course, the best thing would be to have the option of either or both depending on one's needs and available access points. We are agreed on that. :)