Traditional TV to go the way of the dodo

[MacBytes]

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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Traditional TV to go the way of the dodo
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[Blue Velvet]

All television viewing done over the internet within the next 10 years? I don't think so... ludicrously overstated.

[Lacero]

I like leaving my TV on when I do other things. Keeps me from feeling too lonely and prevents me from committing suicide as a result. TV has many health benefits that don't get mentioned in the press.

[ddrueckhammer]

I don't know if TV will be viewed over solely over the internet but there will definitely be tons of content available for download. (If the studios/networks will stop being stubborn) This is why I think HDTV may not catch on like the networks hope it will. Online viewing may take-off and the bandwidth simply won't be there for HD. Convenience will rule out over quality...

[winmacguy]

I like leaving my TV on when I do other things. Keeps me from feeling too lonely and prevents me from committing suicide as a result.
Hey Lacero, have you ever heard of getting out and hanging out with friends, going to the mall, going to the movies, hanging out at the nearest beach or lake (-not so much in winter obviously). Not knocking you, just a few suggestions that don't cost much or that are free and that involve meeting people (guys) and doing fun stuff, something that is becoming a lost art with the teens- 20's generation.
Just a thought.:)

[LethalWolfe]

All television viewing done over the internet within the next 10 years? I don't think so... ludicrously overstated.

I have to agree. We have a few "proof-of-concept" TV-over-net things testing the waters right now and this guy takes that inch and runs a mile with it.


Lethal

[mdavey]

All television viewing done over the internet within the next 10 years? I don't think so

Perhaps not, but I would expect the US and Europe to have moved to Internet-Protocol distribution within 10 years. Cable-TV would have moved to IPTV, telephone and broadband operators will be offering IPTV to compete with the cable companies and broadcasters will be delivering programs to Satelite upload stations via Internet protocol.

Sure, there will be some obscure countries still using Analog TV or Satelite broadcasts, but the vast majority of services, including those using 'new' Digital technologies like HDTV and DVB, will have switched.

[CanadaRAM]

Hey Lacero, have you ever heard of getting out and hanging out with friends, going to the mall, going to the movies, hanging out at the nearest beach or lake (-not so much in winter obviously). Not knocking you, just a few suggestions that don't cost much or that are free and that involve meeting people (guys) and doing fun stuff, something that is becoming a lost art with the teens- 20's generation.
Just a thought.:)
LOL :D

winmacguy: Let me introduce you to Lacero-humor, found only in selected but priviledged locales in MacRumors-Land, usually of the completely deadpan and ultra-dry variety.

Also, its risky to assume that posters are the same gender (or in my case, species) as their avatar... ;)

[winmacguy]

LOL :D

winmacguy: Let me introduce you to Lacero-humor, found only in selected but priviledged locales in MacRumors-Land, usually of the completely deadpan and ultra-dry variety.

Also, its risky to assume that posters are the same gender (or in my case, species) as their avatar... ;)
Thanks for the 'heads up' CanadaRAm:rolleyes: Fortunately I am familiar with dry wit - my better half uses it frequently. I have to say that the previous comment by Lacero was a goodie and did the 747 on me:eek: doh! I will have to remember this for future posts. I was assuming (hopefully correctly) that Lacero is a female juding by the pics on the posters avatar being a variety of consistent themed pics of the same female- I could still be assuming incorrectly of course:rolleyes:

Edit:You would be male and human? ;) CanadaRAM.......

[Danksi]

Assumes people have access to the Internet. Risks creating an even larger digital divide, those who are in areas of coverage and can afford the 'kit' to view and those that can't.

Said it before, the current North American content sucks, so we killed our cable. I couldn't care less how it's delivered.

...You would be male and human? ;) CanadaRAM.......

Wouldn't assume either, those Islanders can be mighty strange at times :D

[winmacguy]

Assumes people have access to the Internet. Risks creating an even larger digital divide, those who are in areas of coverage and can afford the 'kit' to view and those that can't.

Said it before, the current North American content sucks, so we killed our cable. I couldn't care less how it's delivered.



Wouldn't assume either, those Islanders can be mighty strange at times :D
According to Australians, so can us Kiwis;) . Many Australian's think a Kiwi 'eats, roots and leaves':p . The Brits have just discovered that we know how to play rugby as well:D

[dubbz]

According to Australians, so can us Kiwis;) . Many Australian's think a Kiwi 'eats, roots and leaves':p . The Brits have just discovered that we know how to play rugby as well:D

I hear you guys do a lot of other things too :D ;)

[winmacguy]

I hear you guys do a lot of other things too :D ;)
This is true, we just don't tend to brag about them. Sir Edmund Hillary is a fairly unassuming type ;) So was Sir Peter Blake :cool: Being 'unassuming' is quite good in 'other' situations to...;)
On the topic of the death of TV, you just have to check out what Rupert Murdoch is up to these days to see where the big TV networks are going
http://www.newscorp.com.au/operations/cable.html

[winmacguy]

I hear you guys do a lot of other things too :D ;)
We can be somewhat multi talented.:)

[YunusEmre]

All television viewing done over the internet within the next 10 years? I don't think so... ludicrously overstated.


OK, may be not in 10 years, but probably in 15 years. Internet (think wireless) and all other forms of communications will converge. Cell phones, TV, PDAs, portable music players etc. will also converge. This does not mean you will only have a tiny TV to watch, but you will have full video capability in a small hand held device which you will be able to use to watch TV as well as make calls and listen to music etc. On your home TV you will be able to connect you to the 'network' where you can make calls and read news as well as watch TV at your own time... Yeah, I belive it.

[Blue Velvet]

OK, may be not in 10 years, but probably in 15 years.


I highly doubt it. Broadcasting is already 'wireless'.

15 years ago the concept of television was essentially the same for the majority of people: a dedicated box in the corner with some capacity for adding another box that records and plays back programmes.

Remember, the statement was 'all'.
The push towards high-definition makes this less likely IMHO.

Maybe in 35-50 years...

[YunusEmre]

I highly doubt it. Broadcasting is already 'wireless'.


But it is one-way, you cannot say NBC or however, give me this program now. Instead you have to wait for a program to come on at a certain time. The future is two-way. I think the rate of change of ITV is going to take off. PVRs are just the beginning. The rest will be very quick (in comparision to how long it took it to come to this point).

[LethalWolfe]

But it is one-way, you cannot say NBC or however, give me this program now. Instead you have to wait for a program to come on at a certain time. The future is two-way.
Interactive/on-demand TV is a relatively old idea that has yet to really catch on. It hasn't found a "killer app" to make it a must have.

I think the rate of change of ITV is going to take off. PVRs are just the beginning. The rest will be very quick (in comparision to how long it took it to come to this point).
The infrastructure for that to happen is still very lacking. There are also a lot of fundamental shifts on the business side of that will have to take place and I don't see it all taking places inside of 10 years. I think there will be more viewing options in 10 years, but I think they will compliment, not replace, TV.


Lethal

[YunusEmre]

Interactive/on-demand TV is a relatively old idea that has yet to really catch on. It hasn't found a "killer app" to make it a must have.


The infrastructure for that to happen is still very lacking. There are also a lot of fundamental shifts on the business side of that will have to take place and I don't see it all taking places inside of 10 years. I think there will be more viewing options in 10 years, but I think they will compliment, not replace, TV.


Lethal

Yes, it is an old idea. And yes it has taken a long time to catch on. But I think the killer app. has been amongst us for a while, Tivo, or PVR. Time shifting the show to accomodate the viewers schedule, allowing easy operation and access to many other programs the user did not know about... I think the wireless technology is going to get better and 802.11g will be improved upon and may be a new technology will be introduced, but the result will be the same. High speed access to the net from anywhere. There will be more killer apps. like the cell phone, iTunes + iPod... I cannot say for sure it will be 15 years, but I can feel it, the time is right for the ITV to take off. I think Cisco buying SFA is a step in that direction with wireless in the mix (Cisco also owns Linksys).

[YunusEmre]

Here is an interesting aritcle related to this. Mainly it looks at targetted ads and revenue from it, but it talks about the convergence and the fight for the dominance in the living room, hence the suggestion to google:

http://www.marketwatch.com/enf/motleyfoolus.asp?siteid=nytsponsor&guid=%7B9B442168%2D7904%2D41DD%2DA202%2D48BCA9C903BE%7D&link=http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05112304.htm

[mkrishnan]

Oh...."dodo." That makes much more sense.

I read through this title quickly and clearly misread it the first time.

:eek: ;) :o

[LethalWolfe]

Yes, it is an old idea. And yes it has taken a long time to catch on. But I think the killer app. has been amongst us for a while, Tivo, or PVR. Time shifting the show to accomodate the viewers schedule, allowing easy operation and access to many other programs the user did not know about... I think the wireless technology is going to get better and 802.11g will be improved upon and may be a new technology will be introduced, but the result will be the same. High speed access to the net from anywhere. There will be more killer apps. like the cell phone, iTunes + iPod... I cannot say for sure it will be 15 years, but I can feel it, the time is right for the ITV to take off. I think Cisco buying SFA is a step in that direction with wireless in the mix (Cisco also owns Linksys).

1 HDTV channel is 19Mb/s. That's some hefty broadband everyone is gonna need. Now of course companies could offer lower quality versions on line (kinda like the lower quality songs from iTMS), but why would you want to watch some pixilated thing on your brand new 52" HDTV? And a DVR/PVR/TiVo device isn't an on-demand "killer app." Those things are basically just glorified VCRs.

Changing viewing habits and business practices that have largely been around for 60 years isn't gonna happen over night (or maybe even at all). Watching "tradional" b'cast/cable TV will decline in the future, but it's been declining for the past 20 years. I don't think it's gonna go away completely in my lifetime let alone in the next 10 years.


Lethal

[YunusEmre]

1 HDTV channel is 19Mb/s. That's some hefty broadband everyone is gonna need. Now of course companies could offer lower quality versions on line (kinda like the lower quality songs from iTMS), but why would you want to watch some pixilated thing on your brand new 52" HDTV? And a DVR/PVR/TiVo device isn't an on-demand "killer app." Those things are basically just glorified VCRs.

Changing viewing habits and business practices that have largely been around for 60 years isn't gonna happen over night (or maybe even at all). Watching "tradional" b'cast/cable TV will decline in the future, but it's been declining for the past 20 years. I don't think it's gonna go away completely in my lifetime let alone in the next 10 years.


Lethal

Yeah HD requires high speed, but what if you have 20 pre-recorded HD content on your DVR that you play any time? Your DVR can download it in the background, while you are sleeping/working or watching other content, it will be recording content that you either ordered, or showed interest in.

A DVR/PVR is not VCR. A PVR is smart, has tons of capacity and can be connected to broadband, to say something like Netflix. Instead of getting your content via US Mail, you get it via broadband. It is not going to be streamed, it will be downloaded to your PVRs hard disk. Why is that so far off? Tivo has already tested this capability.

Looking at the current pace of developments in this area, I think 10-15 years is enough for this to happen.