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View Full Version : Analysts predict Apple going down tubes, Linux ascendant


lmalave
Jan 8, 2003, 01:46 PM
Crap! Two different articles today predicting declining market share for Apple, both claiming that Linux will surpass Mac for desktop OS market share:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nf/20030108/bs_nf/20409

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nf/20030108/bs_nf/20404


Selected quotes:

But IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky said he doubts Apple's tactics will work. He told NewsFactor that the company's market share has declined in each of the last five years. "If the decline ... continues, it is very likely that Linux (news - web sites) will take the number two spot in the desktop OS market from Mac by the middle of 2003," he noted.


In fact, Kusnetzky said, the company's future prospects appear dim, "unless Apple finds a way to radically change the game."


and, about Linux:

The OS is poised to continue spreading like wildfire in the server market next year, and some pundits are even saying it may overtake Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL - news) OS X as the number two desktop operating system.

Kid Red
Jan 8, 2003, 02:35 PM
It's actually good if linux grows because X is so close to linux that it can carry Apple along because the apps would be easier for us to get. It won't be good if Apple's market share continues to drop but we are in a recession.

But I won't be sad to see M$ fall down.

-hh
Jan 8, 2003, 03:29 PM
This is by Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money Staff Writer.

A short excerpt:

"Our advice: Don't bet against Apple....

"Apple has $4.3 billion in cash and just $316 in debt. Yet, Apple's market value is only $5.4 billion. So with a stock price of about $15 a share, Apple's net cash (the cash minus the debt) is valued at $11 a share. That means investors are valuing the actual operating assets of Apple at $4 a share. And the company has positive operating cash flow as well. "


Click Here for the full article (http://money.cnn.com/2003/01/06/pf/investing/q_apple/index.htm)


-hh

lmalave
Jan 8, 2003, 04:02 PM
Originally posted by Kid Red
It's actually good if linux grows because X is so close to linux that it can carry Apple along because the apps would be easier for us to get. It won't be good if Apple's market share continues to drop but we are in a recession.

But I won't be sad to see M$ fall down.

I totally agree, Linux is our friend. It's just that I was envisioning a future with Linux on the server side and Mac OSX on the desktop side. Ideally, Linux with well over 50% server market share and Mac OSX with 10% desktop market share and rising. It could still happen, but I don't like reading stories about Apple's declining market share.

Here's a question I've wondered, though: people talk about Macs declining market share, but has the number of Mac users actually gone down in the past 5 years? In other words, has the Mac user base remained stable or even grown slightly, but it's just that the PC user base tripled in that time? I keep reading the Mac user base is 25 million now. Anyone know what it has been historically?

MrMacMan
Jan 8, 2003, 04:21 PM
Note:
Yahoo totally blast apple for unkown reasons and have for more than a year calling that apple's downfall is tommorow, which it insn't.

I'd like to see Linux grow along with us, but apple needs to do something drastic.

*cough*
x86
*cough*

I wanna get my hands of a P4!! ;)

chewbaccapits
Jan 8, 2003, 06:10 PM
Same DOOMSDAY shat!This is the same PREDICAMENTS that have plagued APPLE since the late 80's early 90's....Apple always seems to get out of the mud....Apple has alot of promise in the near future.......Remember, 2003 will be the MOST important year for APPLE....I wouldn't worry....I like being the underdog anyway...

rainman::|:|
Jan 8, 2003, 07:47 PM
hahahahaha

i've stopped correcting people when they predict Apple's demise; it just makes them look like bigger idiots when it doesn't happen.

A guy in the MR chat about an hour before the keynote was telling me, matter-of-factly, that Apple wouldn't be around in 5 years anyway. made me laugh. it's the same rhetoric over and over, repeated since the early '80s.

My grandmother bought her first computer about 4 years ago, i tried to convince her to get a mac but her son (who happens to work for IBM) convinced her to go with them. I remember him telling me Apple wouldn't live through the rest of the century.

Standard rules of business practice just do not apply to companies with cult followings.

:)
pnw

3rdpath
Jan 8, 2003, 07:51 PM
the analysts are almost always wrong.

a good rule of thumb is to do the opposite of what they suggest.

apple will be around for a long, long time.

but how much of their business will be computers and os is the big question.

lmalave
Jan 8, 2003, 07:54 PM
Originally posted by paulwhannel
hahahahaha

i've stopped correcting people when they predict Apple's demise; it just makes them look like bigger idiots when it doesn't happen.

A guy in the MR chat about an hour before the keynote was telling me, matter-of-factly, that Apple wouldn't be around in 5 years anyway. made me laugh. it's the same rhetoric over and over, repeated since the early '80s.

My grandmother bought her first computer about 4 years ago, i tried to convince her to get a mac but her son (who happens to work for IBM) convinced her to go with them. I remember him telling me Apple wouldn't live through the rest of the century.

Standard rules of business practice just do not apply to companies with cult followings.

:)
pnw

Exactly! Macs already have a loyal user base of 25 million. I mean, look, that was enough for the iPod to become the market share leader in the MP3 player market despite the fact that for the longest time it was only officially Mac-compatible. 25 Million is still pretty significant.

Here's a question I asked in another forum but was never answered: what is the largest user base that Macs have ever had? Has it ever been larger than 25 million? I mean, when Apple peaked at 30% market share, wasn't the total size of the computer market less than one tenth of what it is now? Is Apple's declining market share mostly because the PC market grew so rapidly in the last decade?

IngoB
Jan 8, 2003, 08:17 PM
Originally posted by lmalave
But IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky said he doubts Apple's tactics will work. He told NewsFactor that the company's market share has declined in each of the last five years. "If the decline ... continues, it is very likely that Linux (news - web sites) will take the number two spot in the desktop OS market from Mac by the middle of 2003," he noted.

Well, is there any surprise in that? OK, let's say PC's have 95% of the market, Macs have 5%. OS X will have 100% of the Macs soon, so that means OS X runs on 5% of all computers. Now, Windows runs on most PCs, but Linux is catching on. How many percent of the PC market does Linux have to grab in order to match OS X? 5%/95%=5.263%! That would still leave Windows with 94.737% of the PC market and with control over 90% of all computers... So a marginal success of Linux is enough to best Apple, simply because Linux is slugging it out in the PC market.

rainman::|:|
Jan 8, 2003, 08:26 PM
Originally posted by lmalave
Here's a question I asked in another forum but was never answered: what is the largest user base that Macs have ever had? Has it ever been larger than 25 million? I mean, when Apple peaked at 30% market share, wasn't the total size of the computer market less than one tenth of what it is now? Is Apple's declining market share mostly because the PC market grew so rapidly in the last decade?

Apple used to send out these lovely brochures and videos, i remember one of them saying very big: "Apple has just shipped it's 25 millionth Macintosh. It will be used by one of the over 60 million Mac users out there"

This was several years ago... And their estimation may have been done differently...

:)
pnw

nilepoc
Jan 8, 2003, 08:29 PM
Washington Post is another nay sayer.

I just have to say I am glad I switched, and I think apple is right about laptops being the future.

I know I don't touch my iMac since I got my iBook, even though it is a G3 and the iMac is a G4.

Post story (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24678-2003Jan7.html)

sparkleytone
Jan 8, 2003, 08:53 PM
i predict alot of analysts won't have jobs in 2 years.

LethalWolfe
Jan 8, 2003, 09:17 PM
Originally posted by lmalave
and, about Linux:

The OS is poised to continue spreading like wildfire in the server market next year, and some pundits are even saying it may overtake Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL - news) OS X as the number two desktop operating system.

Oh please... Linux in the server market is a contender, but as a desktop OS for professionals and home users? :rolleyes: Even the most die-hard PC enthusiasts<sp?> I know will admit OS X is pretty d@mn cool and Linux has a long way to go before its ready to be a viable desktop OS for the masses.


Lethal

medea
Jan 8, 2003, 10:07 PM
Analysts have always predicted Apple will fail as a company, as of course it hasn't, for some reason people don't belive there can be any alternative computer companies that will make it (and yet as capable and amazing as OS X is they still think Linux is the best alternative?), and I'd say Apple has done more than make it. As long as they keep doing what they are doing, which is innovating, they will be fine.

transistor
Jan 8, 2003, 10:30 PM
My friends, why worry about Linux gaining share over Mac?

You see, where does Linux run? Intel-AMD machines, right?

And what is the main processor out there? Intel-AMD.

See, it is natural that if Linux gains popularity that it has a better chance than Mac to gain a significant larger share.

Of course, Linux gaining popularity over Windows is GOOD, jolly good, for many reasons.

But (like you) I don't think THAT helps, contributes, predicts or in any way means that Apple is going down. Not at all.

And I agree too, that Apple needs to take some drastic measures to "switch" more people.
Don't look at me! You know (and I'm pretty sure they do too) what Apple has to do. Soon. Or any time soon.

Long live Apple!

samtheman
Jan 10, 2003, 06:27 PM
and some pundits are even saying it may overtake Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL - news) OS X as the number two desktop operating system.
OS X isn't the number two desktop operating system.

You see, where does Linux run? Intel-AMD machines, right?
Linux runs on powerpc, too.

lmalave
Jan 10, 2003, 07:02 PM
Originally posted by samtheman

OS X isn't the number two desktop operating system.


Linux runs on powerpc, too.

Yeah, OS 9 has 4 times as many users as OSX by Apple's own admission. I think the author really meant to say Mac OS in general, though.


Yes, Linux is on PPC but it's small - for now. But let's not forget that IBM's big plan for their 970 CPU is to make their own low-end Linux workstations and servers to compete with the cheap Intel boxes.

Chef Ramen
Jan 11, 2003, 05:05 PM
people have been saying that apple will die for decades, just aint gonna happen

wdlove
Jan 11, 2003, 08:16 PM
I think that Apple owners in general are much more devoted to their computer. Windows in specific, use it more or less because they have to, no real choice. We decided on Apple!

Much greater loyalty!

GeneR
Jan 18, 2003, 05:51 PM
What's really interesting to me is how often analysts talk about the demise of Apple. It's almost like a broken record. And yet, here we see that Apple has been smart enough to carry a $4.6 billion cash reserve, and focused on innovative approaches to hardware and software needs of their consumers.

Will Apple go down?

Who knows? If analysts were truly prophetic I suppose they wouldn't be analysts but Warren Buffets. It's easy to say Nay, harder to have vision that proves to be true.

In summary: who cares if they say nay? The bottom line is how well Apple is doing as a company, and how its consumer base either grows or shrinks. And only time will tell that story.