PDA

View Full Version : Happy Birthday Aapl ???


brad
Jan 13, 2003, 05:08 PM
Whilst the new line of P/Books is fantastic, it again [as a product release] does not offer anything new or truely innovative as we have grown accustom to expect from Apple, and has had little or no effect on Apples share price.

Apples share price has dipped to say the least over the past 12 - 18 months, now hovering at around or below it's fair value mark - from $26 to $18 to around $14.

The release of 'Apple's slice of the pie shrinks' document (with a 'sell' recommendation attached to it) by ML, demonstrates Apple is beginning to faulter. With Jobs leaving Gap to concentrate on Apple, investors were hopeful of a turnaround.

For the most part, we were expecting a 20 Year Anniversary last year from Apple, and again as this year began, some of us hoped it may be 2003 for the anniversary - but yet no marketing release at the recent expo.

Whilst a '20 year anniversary' campaign may be outside the realm of Apples brand image, product innovation is the next logical step to uplift Apples profile. But yet no delivery...

As far as the anniversary goes, an Anniversay machine as released a few years ago won't make the grade. Apple needs to concentrate significantly on its product offerings and market innovation to pull its share price through. Surely a 20 year Anniversary campaign coupled with innovative product launches as opposed to h/d & s/w upgrades solely would contribute significantly to AAPL's performance. I realise we are awaiting the G5's and as loyal Mac enthusiasts have shown, awaiting an Apple product release can be quite exciting, but Christmas is coming too - In reality some of us are awaiting Apple share price to gain now.

Of course the corporate collapse in the US, the slowing tech. market, losing market share, the lack-lustre performance of the switch campaign and other factors have affected Apples share price - but surely Apple (with Jobs now positioned at the healm) need to look internally and the successes of the past to rise above its current position.

I'm not dissappointed Mac lover, just a frustrated Investor...

Chad4Mac
Jan 13, 2003, 06:19 PM
It just goes to show that one persons gloom is another person sunshine.

If you were to follow ML's advice all the time, you would be broke or would have missed some serious financial opportunity.

Why would you sell Apple stock right now? If anything, I would buy Apple stock right now.

4th Quarter results are coming up here soon, and maybe some good news with the iPod sales will come with it. All they have to do is stay on track; no one is expecting a overly positive report.

Apple stores stayed on track, meeting expectations. Even in this economy meeting expectations is a good thing.

Later this year MAYBE they will pick up the IBM chips, sparking some excitment. There is a lot of future hapiness in this industry. As you should know, product innovation is Apple's lifeline. Maybe this product will even be cheaper and better than expected. No one knows...

I don't know, some people choose stocks different. I tend to see a report that says the fair market value is 15+, but the stock is trading below this mark as a buy symbol, especially when I follow the company this well.

I'm comfortable with Apple, I feel my money is safe in there stock, and making more than it would in the bank right now.

Chad4Mac

FelixDerKater
Jan 13, 2003, 06:37 PM
Apple's twentieth anniversary came and left in the late 90's. Where have you been? Ever hear of the Twentieth Anniversary Mac?

If you are talking about the twentieth anniversary of the Macintosh, that would be next year. (1984-2004). It came out in 1984. I'm sure you've heard about that commercial.

Maybe you're talking about a 25th anniversary of Apple? That should have been last year. 1977-2002.

:p

Link to info on the 20th Anniversary Mac:
http://www.lowendmac.com/ppc/tam.shtml

brad
Jan 13, 2003, 07:11 PM
Chad:

Whilst the forecast is moderate, and expecting high performance in these times is a bit of an ask, have a look at HP or MS. Whilst there price has dipped it has also risen. What r they doing that is different to Apple? Apple should have picked up by now as opposed by trading below or near market value.

Apple's innovation is one of its leading distingiushable qualities in the marketplace. Innovation, as oposed to market follow-throughs will reposition Apple.

ML - you're right, but its just one of the institutions.

And your right about an individuals investment strategy. Apple is a safe stock, buying now at near market value is a good thing, but why hold onto dead stock?


Felix:

To clarify, yes, sorry it is the Macintosh Anniversary to which I refer. But again with a delay in G5 production, Apple has missed an opportunity to leverage its stock price. My point is a strong campaign like the 'Think Different' campaign as opposed to 'switch' or product advertisements may help turn the tide.

barkmonster
Jan 13, 2003, 07:13 PM
Maybe you're talking about a 25th anniversary of Apple? That should have been last year. 1977-2002.

Wierd thought for you :

I was born in the year of Apple, '77

My sister was born in the year of Macintosh, '84

okay, coincidence I know but I think it's spooky enough for me!

FelixDerKater
Jan 13, 2003, 07:27 PM
Originally posted by brad
Chad:
But again with a delay in G5 production, Apple has missed an opportunity to leverage its stock price. My point is a strong campaign like the 'Think Different' campaign as opposed to 'switch' or product advertisements may help turn the tide.

Did the Think Different ads actually do anything to improve Apple sales? A picture of someone like Einstein with an Apple logo and "Think Different" isn't going to get the job done.

Advertise the products you're selling, not some philosophy. If you have superior hardware/software, show the world. Let them know and it may cause them to buy. On the topic of the switch ads, you have a similar problem. Some of them are fine and make good points and that is nice, like the fact that Macs generally work without the problems PCs have. Others just don't cut it.

Show your products. Tell why they're great. Why are they a better choice? What is the price? How well do they perform? Stuff like that.

Another thing: Include the phone number to the Apple Store in the commercials along with the website address... People remember that stuff.

brad
Jan 13, 2003, 08:16 PM
Yes Chad, do all that stuff, but your building a brand, dealing with tangible and intangible values.

By building the cocal-cola brand does Coke rely on advetising their price? No, of course not b/c competitors in the beverage market are comparitively priced. Apple suffers by advertising their price over a competitors whose "like-for-like" offerings are often similar, yet the price gap is large.

By building Apples brand, it is the intangible which is important. How many Apple consumers are converts rather than loyalists? hence the switch campaign. But again the switch campaign is covering a wide market whom are loyal or do not care about their PC brand.

What the Think Different campaign did was raise awareness and place the Apple brand uppermost in peoples minds. Although the switch campaign outlines the benefits of crossing-over and uses "real" converts to do this, it's presence is outside the core realm of the brands image, hence why the US market is about the only ones whom are fully exposed to it.

It's like comparing an Alpha with a Porsche, you know the Alpha may be more economical, but it is the Porsche which has the prestige for a racey or affluent market. Apple has a always been dogged by this, their brand commands a premium whilst focusing on a niche market and then suffers to a competitor. Perhaps you're right in a round about way, a price reduction and a focus on a line of PC equivalents may be more appropriate. And again, it is innovation and product design which will see it through.

Chad4Mac
Jan 13, 2003, 10:38 PM
Originally posted by brad
Chad:

Whilst the forecast is moderate, and expecting high performance in these times is a bit of an ask, have a look at HP or MS. Whilst there price has dipped it has also risen. What r they doing that is different to Apple? Apple should have picked up by now as opposed by trading below or near market value.

Apple's innovation is one of its leading distingiushable qualities in the marketplace. Innovation, as oposed to market follow-throughs will reposition Apple.

ML - you're right, but its just one of the institutions.

And your right about an individuals investment strategy. Apple is a safe stock, buying now at near market value is a good thing, but why hold onto dead stock?


Felix:

To clarify, yes, sorry it is the Macintosh Anniversary to which I refer. But again with a delay in G5 production, Apple has missed an opportunity to leverage its stock price. My point is a strong campaign like the 'Think Different' campaign as opposed to 'switch' or product advertisements may help turn the tide.

I'm sorry, but you can't compare Apple to HPQ or MS. They are totally different companies, with totally diiferent market caps, direction, and products. They are in the same industry, and there stock prices tend to move in similar directions because of market progress. HPQ is a bright star in a semi-dark universe; a great success story after merging with Compaq. You simply can't compare HPQs stock price in relation to Apples or microsoft's for that matter. All it takes is a quiet little secret in Apple's development department and a brighter economy to turn things around. I think that will happen in the next 12 - 18 months.

It's all opinion. No one has the right answer in the present tense. We will see in the long run if Apple is dead stock. IMO, I see future growth in Apple and the valuation in their in p/s stock price; I would rather buy now when the "stock is dead" than on the rise or inflated pirce. I also like there Balance Sheet.

To me dead stock is a stock that has hit a peak, and refuses to climb any higher. I like stock that are undervalued -- stuck in a valley with a strong financial backing -- and that are striving to climb out (or innovate) out of the valley and up to the peak.

Chad4Mac

rainman::|:|
Jan 14, 2003, 03:18 AM
apple's stock has been down this far before. i remember when the original imac was released, they were around... 12 i think, and it stayed there for a while, while the market tried to figure out what the hell an iMac *was*. go find a 10 or 20 year stock graph, this isn't that uncommon.

i think, despite the obvious lack of speed which causes a lot of problems, apple is doing quite well... and again, once that difference is made up apple will have all of this wonderful software and technology that will drive the company up, up up!

:)
pnw