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Chaszmyr
Jan 20, 2003, 10:23 PM
I have various reasons to think an iMac update might come tomorrow(Tuesday the 21th).... I have no real proof and no really strong support... But if it happens, just remember you heard it here first :-P

(EDIT: i fixed the date... sorry about that typo)

AWishForNoOne
Jan 20, 2003, 10:25 PM
i'm hoping for it. it would give me incentive to buy one sooner. but i don't think it'll be anythign too big. unless i'm wrong.

Shrek
Jan 20, 2003, 10:25 PM
Um, tomorrow is the 21st.

Over Achiever
Jan 20, 2003, 10:27 PM
Are your "reasons" hunchs, friends telling you, or an educated guess?

Just wondering...:)

Chaszmyr
Jan 20, 2003, 10:49 PM
Originally posted by Over Achiever
Are your "reasons" hunchs, friends telling you, or an educated guess?

Just wondering...:)

Its an educated guess... but I am thinking in my head its about a 50% chance, based on the information I have available.

morlium
Jan 20, 2003, 11:28 PM
There's ALWAYS a 50% chance of Apple releasing an iMac upgrade ...

Chaszmyr
Jan 21, 2003, 12:48 AM
Mm no. Apple releases about 3 iMac upgrades a year. Thats less than a 1% chance :-P

rainman::|:|
Jan 21, 2003, 01:51 AM
probability is weird, i think morlium is correct tho, there's a 50% chance - either they will, or they won't. the chances of it happening tomorrow over any other day of the year are less than 1%, but the chances of it happening tomorrow are 50/50.

i think. is there a mathematician in the house?

at any rate, it's a little weird to have a hunch worthy of publishing on the web... but you can hope, right? then you'll look like a genius...

:)
pnw

Chaszmyr
Jan 21, 2003, 02:57 AM
Just because there are 2 and only 2 options doesnt mean its a 50% chance.

springscansing
Jan 21, 2003, 05:14 AM
Jesus, at 3 updates a year, there's a 0.82% chance of a new iMac each day, not taking into account specific days more or less prone to introductions (macworlds, etc). Average of .82%.

mpest
Jan 21, 2003, 06:12 AM
Originally posted by paulwhannel
probability is weird, i think morlium is correct tho, there's a 50% chance - either they will, or they won't. the chances of it happening tomorrow over any other day of the year are less than 1%, but the chances of it happening tomorrow are 50/50.

i think. is there a mathematician in the house?

:)
pnw

you're definitely correct probability wise, well stated

Chaszmyr
Jan 21, 2003, 06:34 AM
Originally posted by mpest


you're definitely correct probability wise, well stated

Thatd be true if we were flipping a coin (for example, if you flip a coin and it lands on heads 10 times in a row, on the 11th flip there is still a 50/50 chance, even though if you were to initially determine the probability of heads 11 times in a row it would be a very low chance)... but this isnt like flipping a coin, there are other factors involved.

FlamDrag
Jan 21, 2003, 08:02 AM
So you're saying that SJ doesn't wake up every morning and flip a coin to see if they update new hardware?

I'll prefer to think that he does and hope for a new hardware announcement 50/50 every day.

:rolleyes:

Why else to people read sites like this if on some level they didn't somehow hope and pray that something new and great would have a 50% chance of debuting "tomorrow."

Le Big Mac
Jan 21, 2003, 08:26 AM
Each day we go without updates to iMacs increase the chances that new ones will be introduced the next day (Sunday excepted, except for maybe SUper bowl sunday). But once they're introduced, the chances of more updates drops to 0% for some time.

All we can say is that there's probably a 90% chance of updates by the end of Feb., and 80% chance of updates by the middle of Feb., a 50% chance of updates by the end of Jan., and maybe a 25% chance of updates today (and 25% next week). (All %'s approximate)

Nothing is for sure, except that lots of people don't understand probabilities (myself included).

robbents99
Jan 21, 2003, 10:12 AM
Personally I'd aim for the 25th when Ilife debuts. I used my friends 17" 800 imac and was sold on it immediately, just waiting for the speedbump....

Anyone know if Apple is having a Super Bowl Commericial?

MacsRgr8
Jan 21, 2003, 02:09 PM
Wouldn't it be great:
iLife,
OS X 10.2.4,
e/iMac to 1 GHz
Radeon 9700... all shown in a really cool Super Bowl ad?
Not that we would see any of it over here in Europe :(

SwitchHitter
Jan 21, 2003, 02:17 PM
I hope tomorrow is right... if it is, i'm out to pick one up.

That being said... it was supposed to be in SF, on the 7th, but we know that didn'thappen.

SURELY, there must be someone from Apple that monitors these sites and can let us in on the secret.. It can't be all that secret, i.e. PR people would know, marketing people would know, Web people would know, developers would know, etc. etc. etc.

If one of them COULD just come back and say there is an update coming - that's what I'm waiting for. I don't care if it's tomorrow or end of Feb as long as I know an update is coming. Otherwise, I won't want to switch.. I've been patiently waiting for almost 3 months now to buy.


tap tap tap. apple are you listening?

Over Achiever
Jan 21, 2003, 02:19 PM
As for a superbowl ad...i think apple will show the "Big and Small" powerbook ad with Yao Ming and "mini-me"...it was shown in the NFC/AFC championship games.

Chomolungma
Jan 21, 2003, 02:41 PM
Originally posted by Chaszmyr


Thatd be true if we were flipping a coin (for example, if you flip a coin and it lands on heads 10 times in a row, on the 11th flip there is still a 50/50 chance, even though if you were to initially determine the probability of heads 11 times in a row it would be a very low chance)... but this isnt like flipping a coin, there are other factors involved.

probably not a fair coin

a fair coin (probability of getting 10 heads in a row is 1 in 1024):D

AWishForNoOne
Jan 21, 2003, 05:20 PM
SURELY, there must be someone from Apple that monitors these sites and can let us in on the secret.. It can't be all that secret, i.e. PR people would know, marketing people would know, Web people would know, developers would know, etc. etc. etc.

... steve jobs has cracked down crazy style on the leaks.

SwitchHitter
Jan 22, 2003, 09:06 AM
I was reading a message thread on thinksecret about new iMacs there, and one posting said that Apple is NOT going to update the iMacs, and instead focus on the laptops - and that this is the death kneal for the desktops...

Any thoughts on that?

will
Jan 22, 2003, 09:31 AM
I disagree, Apple are certain to update the iMacs before end of Feb. They can bump the speed, introduce new screens and incorporate features such as bluetooth, 802.11g. Remember Steve said he expects laptop sales to be 35% (yes thirty five percent) of Apple sales this year. If Apple don't update their desktops then where do you suppose the other 65% will come from? ;)

iwantanewmac
Jan 22, 2003, 10:10 AM
Originally posted by paulwhannel
probability is weird, i think morlium is correct tho, there's a 50% chance - either they will, or they won't. the chances of it happening tomorrow over any other day of the year are less than 1%, but the chances of it happening tomorrow are 50/50.

pnw

yeah....lol like winning the lottery? You win it or you won't!!! a 50% chance hahaha good 1.

Shrek
Jan 22, 2003, 10:24 AM
01-22-03 and no new iMacs. This thread is going to get closed. :p

Chaszmyr
Jan 22, 2003, 10:29 AM
Bleh so I was wrong... I am as disappointed as you are lol. I am still hoping for an iMac update soon though...

Shrek
Jan 22, 2003, 10:47 AM
Don't be dissapointed if there is not an update before the end of this month. Apple is probably cooking up something really special for us! Give 'em time. :D