Anyone here into FOREX? [Archive] - Page 4

nhallmark

Dec 16, 2006, 07:46 PM

Really? I hadn't looked into tradethenews yet myself (on my to-do list this week actually) but I wouldn't have thought the price differential between text and audio would be so great.

Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php

I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money.

On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to find something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant find it. So, what do you do at tax time?

Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much:p "

~Shard~

Dec 17, 2006, 01:10 AM

Here's the page...https://www.tradethenews.com/subscribe.php

I guess they have to pay the guy to talk into the mic, but I don't think they pay him that much. Anyway, I played with the audio in my trial, but I havent actually traded wih it. It would be worth it, but its not really cost effective for me right now because Im not making real money.

Thanks, I'll check it out myself and sign up for the trial in the new year, preferably around the time that a lot of key announcements are being released.. ;) :D

On another note, I looked through the pages in this thread trying to find something about taxes because I remember you guys talking about it but I cant find it. So, what do you do at tax time?

Do you take screenshots of every trade? Or is the transaction history enough? Or do you just tell your accountant "I made this much:p "

Just like any other trading I do, I will simply be taking my monthly statements to my accountant. I don't think there should be anything too complicated with it, but perhaps Music_Producer could shed further light on it.

~Shard~

Dec 17, 2006, 04:40 PM

So Music_Producer, what's your take on the BoJ interest rate announcement on Tuesday this week? Are you still in your AUD/JPY carry trade? I am as well. If Japan does indeed hike rates, that should hurt the carry trade, correct? Are you going to close your position before the announcement? What do you figure will happen?

Music_Producer

Dec 17, 2006, 10:34 PM

Hey nhallmark.. for taxes, I believe its Schedule D (capital gains) I do all my taxes on quicken+turbotax.. I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself. I do my taxes usually when I'm on vacation somewhere.. that's when I can do them peacefully :p You don't need to take screenshots.. I don't even keep the transaction statements.. all that matters is the profit (or loss) that you have made.

Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.

~Shard~

Dec 17, 2006, 10:55 PM

I wouldn't go to an accountant when I could do the same thing myself.

Yeah, that's not a bad idea if you can manage it. Alas, my taxes are so complicated I decided a few years back it simply wasn't worth my time and effort to do them myself anymore and I went to an accountant. Since then I have been receiving much greater returns, as my accountant is finding lots of deductions I used to always miss. As well, I'm into stocks, bonds, flow-through entities, convertible debentures, income trusts, limited partnerships... with all the tax implications, write-offs, conversions, adjusted cost bases and corresponding interest (some on an annual accrual basis, some not) and a whole bunch of other factors, for me at least it is worth the few hundred dollars to get them done quick and get them done right. Plus, if CRA ever comes after me I'm protected form audits since I have had an accountant do my taxes. Just one less thing to worry about for me. :cool:

Shard, JPY interest rates should be unchanged.. but let's see what the BOJ chief says. I'm still in the carry trade.. even if the BOJ guy says 'we need to raise interest rates' aud/jpy might dip 50 or so pips.. but eventually get back up again.

Yeah, I believe they should remain unchanged as well, but as a result if there's a surprise, I was concerned about the resultant dip. But, as you say, if there is one it will probably (hopefully!) just be temporary. Plus, it seems like there are so many people who use this currency pair for carry trading that "they" almost won't let it tank. ;) :D

And to confirm, with the US PPI #s coming out on Tuesday, this is a measure of inflation, correct? So if the #s are high, although you'd think high = good news for the US, it's actually bad, because it is a sign of rising inflation which means the country might have to cut interest rates to curb the rising inflation, thus making the currency less valuable for investors - correct?

Music_Producer

Dec 18, 2006, 07:00 AM

Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. :rolleyes: Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better :) It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start)

Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means inflation is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb inflation' No, its the opposite. If inflation goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down inflation. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates)

Basically.. 2 types of reports

1. Inflation measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More inflation = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc)
2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news.

And i'm pissed that Cisco launched the iPhone :eek:

Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I find that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.

thebear

Dec 18, 2006, 07:46 AM

Need some help please. I have been trying the Oanda demo and cannot change anything, chart type, pairs, time, nothing. What am I doing wrong? Thanks for any help. New to forex, not new to Macs.
:)

nhallmark

Dec 18, 2006, 08:52 AM

Thanks for the info on taxes.

Im pissed off about the iphone, also, but hopefully, this just means apple is done with the "i" thing...and we'll still see a phone at macworld.;) :D

I didn't trade the US current account this morning because the numbers were roughly as expected and Im glad because it didn't move that much anyway.

thebear, try clearing your cookies, cache, etc. and make sure you have the latest version of java installed and try again. Also, try just logging out and back in. It's happened to me before and I just closed the window and logged back in and it was fine.

~Shard~

Dec 18, 2006, 10:17 AM

Shard, I've wasted so much time on doing taxes as well.. and at one point I was almost going to get an accountant.. but I just like to do things myself for some reason. Oh.. and if I had a variety of investments like you have.. I would probably use an accountant too. I just love the DIY approach .. the tougher, the better. It's also a good learning process, and in the end I couldn't beleive how simple it was, and how much accountants make for something that you can do in a couple of hours (or minutes, if you are very organized from the start)

Yeah, I totally know where you're coming from. I'm that way too, and as I said, did my own taxes up until only a couple years ago. I ended up missing things, misunderstanding things (and subsequently refiling) and (now that I've seen what my accountant did) outright missed some deductions I could have made. But yes, I'm the type who prefers DIY as well - after all, we do all our investing on our own, right? ;) :)

Coming to the PPI, yes, if it's a higher number.. that means inflation is still a threat.. but I think you got that part wrong where you mentioned 'interest rates will be cut to curb inflation' No, its the opposite. If inflation goes higher, interest rates have to be raised to slow down inflation. So, if the PPI (or CPI) numbers are more.. that means the markets will expect the Feds to raise interest rates. This is also why the $ went down on Friday.. as the CPI came out at 0% (expected at 0.2%) So everyone thought 'Oh great, Bernanke is not going to hike rates.. or he will cut rates)

Ooops, you're right, I'm not sure why I typed that. ;) Yes, obviously if inflation goes higher interest rates have to be raised to slow it down. Thanks for the correction. :o

Basically.. 2 types of reports

1. Inflation measuring reports (CPI, PPI, etc) More inflation = greater chance of rate hike = upward move in currency (whatever it may be - GBP or USD etc)
2. Economic growth reports (GDP, etc) - Better number, obviously higher the currency will go .. because a strong economy is good news.

... And thanks for the summary. :)

Edit :- Forgot to answer your previous question - I find that the tradethenews audio feed is a second or two earlier than the text report.. so yes, it makes a huge difference when trading. Now, bloomberg is 2-3 seconds faster than the tradethenews audio feed.. so you can imagine the advantage you have while trading with a bloomberg platform next to you. Then again, you're paying for it.

Yeah, exactly - you get what you pay for! I'll definitely give the tradethenews platform a try in the New Year - I'll just pick a busy week in terms of economic data (and potential trades) to make the most of the 1-week free trial. ;) :D

In a way, it doesn't seem like tradethenews and Bloomberg would/should be that much faster (a couple seconds is an eternity in this game!) because even with Oanda's new service, the news comes out almost at the same time as the spike - a little bit after in most cases. With tradethenews can you actually get in "comfortably" before the spike (and by comfortably I mean .5 seconds or so)? You say it's 2-3 seconds faster? And with Bloomberg you would then, in theory, be able to get in well before the spike (a whole second or two)??? However with all the institutions using Bloomberg you'd expect they would be the ones causing the spike in the first place! ;) I guess all I'm saying is that I'm a bit surprised these platforms would give you a really noticeable advantage, but I guess they must... I'll just have to see for myself. :cool:

Music_Producer

Dec 19, 2006, 01:47 AM

Right Shard, it is the banks and hedge funds managers who have access to Bloomberg terminals, that cause that spike.. but if you and I were using the same terminal.. we would be *part* of that spike too. We would get in, like everyone else, at the beginning of the spike and get out at the top.

Btw, be careful while trading the US PPI.. there's housing starts coming out as well (although i doubt that will be very important) But a huge deviation in housing starts could erase off any spikes caused due to ppi numbers. If, for example housing starts came out highly positive, therefore surprising everyone. That's one big relief for the US traders.. in that the real estate market is seen as pulling the US economy down.. so an upward number will be a sign of a healthier economy.

I'm also trading the Canadian CPI

Music_Producer

Dec 19, 2006, 07:08 AM

Canadian CPI came out better than expected at 0.3% (core number) Made 10 pips on that trade.

~Shard~

Dec 19, 2006, 07:23 AM

Thanks for the warning re: the US PPI - I was kind of thinking the same thing, since multiple announcements are coming out at the same time. I'll definitely be watching the trade but I'm not sure if I'll act this time around. We'll see...

Also I just woke up to a pleasant surprise - while I was sleeping it seems as though my AUD/JPY carry trade has shot up a good 40 pips for me! :D Any reason why? I haven't hadn't a chance to read the headlines yet... Maybe I should just exit it for now before today's BoJ announcement, just in case... hmmm...

Music_Producer

Dec 19, 2006, 08:38 AM

Wow, pretty tepid reaction to strong PPI numbers ..caught 15 pips on the down spike .. did you see the whipsaw? Man, eur/usd first went up by about 8-10 pips and then dropped rightaway. :eek:

Euro's recovered back to where it was pre-news level.

~Shard~

Dec 19, 2006, 08:40 AM

Didn't end up trading this one this morning - as usual, Oanda's news service was a touch slow, so I wasn't able to get in on time. Hindsight says I could have got in mid-way through the spike and still made a few pips going down, but, well, that's hindsight. ;)

The other thing that threw me was that just before the news came out, there was actually a positive spike upwards - I was wondering if someone was doing some insider trading! ;) :D But, if they were, they were wrong, as once the news came out there was that sharp decrease. Oops. :p :D

So yeah, I could have made a bit this morning, but chose to err on the safe side this go around. There's always next time... :cool:

Oh, and since I'll be at work all day I decided to close out my carry trade position as well, just in case the AUD/JPY gets hits with the announcement this afternoon. Perhaps it won't, or perhaps it will continue to rise, but I've made some nice money on it so no need to get greedy. I'll open another carry position on the currency pair before the week is out... :cool:

nhallmark

Dec 19, 2006, 08:47 AM

I didn't trade PPI. Tradethenews was a little slow and there was zero time to get in. The news came out and it dropped at the same time. oh well

I was looking at the bloomberg platform last night. It pisses me off because, like everything else it only works on windows. But my bank account doesn't really care, so whatever.

~Shard~

Dec 19, 2006, 10:04 AM

Isn't the Bloomberg terminal $1700/month or something?!? :eek: As it's been said before though, I guess you get what you pay for, and if you're a big trading firm/hedge fund I'm sure that's small peanuts when compared to your overall profits/month... must be nice... :o :cool:

Music_Producer

Dec 19, 2006, 05:54 PM

Oh yeah, the Bloomberg Terminal is $1700 per month.. and don't worry about a pc nhallmark.. you don't need to use one :p They give you the hardware setup - 2 monitors, keyboard and i guess the data hardware. You are connected to the bloomberg data center via a direct line.. I am not sure if you can connect via cable/dsl.. but obviously the direct line is the fastest way to get that news.. makes no sense to pay so much and get your bloomberg info at the same time as oanda news!!

64430

As Shard mentioned, it's a negligible (but necessary) expense for banks. Look at Bank of America's foreign exchange profit.. somewhere like half a billion USD. Nice, they get to play with our money.. :D

nhallmark

Dec 19, 2006, 08:42 PM

Wow, Music_Producer, that thing is hideous. This is the one I saw...

http://about.bloomberg.com/about/hardware/img/desktop-2.jpg

It's no 30" Cinema Display, but it'll do. So, if it's a direct line, do they have to make a service call to your house to install the line, or what?

Also, I saw on their "Bloomberg Anywhere" login page the option to login natively or through java, so it might be possible to access it on a mac, but I'd be willing to use their hardware if its faster.

They also have this keycard that lets you log in with your fingerprint...

http://about.bloomberg.com/about/hardware/img/bunit-1.jpg

I can't wait until I can afford this thing.

Here's where I got the images...

http://about.bloomberg.com/about/professional/index.html

nhallmark

Dec 21, 2006, 08:57 AM

Did you guys trade the US GDP this morning? I just watched it to learn.

~Shard~

Dec 21, 2006, 11:45 AM

Just watched it as well - I didn't think there would be enough variance to make any money from it, and I was kind of right. :o ;) I think things in general will slow down until the end of the year now, being holiday season and all. I'll be around for the trade tomorrow on US durable goods etc. but after that, I don't think there'll be much trading until the New Year.

One thing I did do though was enter back into my AUD/JPY carry trade. Down a little bit on it right now (got in at 92.98) but making interest, and hopefully the currency will remain solid throughout the holidays - there won't be as many announcements which would move it. I plan on holding this position for a while now and only went with half my desired amount in case there's a large dip - if there is, I'll simply DCA down and get even more interest. ;) :cool:

nhallmark

Dec 21, 2006, 09:35 PM

~Shard~

Dec 22, 2006, 12:30 AM

Are you guys trading US Durable goods in the morning? I think Im going to watch again because there is a lot of data coming out at the same time. Ive never traded this before but it looks like it will be crazy like NFP, but I could be wrong:confused:

I'll be ready with my finger on the trade button, but we'll see how it goes...

AUD/JPY is back up - my carry trade is doing nicely right now as a result... :) I'll be holding it through to the New year now... :cool:

Music_Producer

Dec 22, 2006, 04:40 AM

Hey guys, nhallmark.. I posted an older pic of the bloomberg platform.. their new one looks real sleek :)

I might just watch the trade today.. two very important reports coming out.. Durable goods and PCE.. Durable goods is important but then PCE becomes important as well.. thanks to all the inflation issues and expectations of a rate hike/cut. I think there might be a whipsaw.. and I don't want to risk getting caught in it. Maybe I'll trade with a very small lot.

Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well :D

And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!

~Shard~

Dec 22, 2006, 07:35 AM

Shard, yup the aud/jpy should continue to strengthen.. but i would caution holding on to it when january arrives. Just this feeling .. that it's appreciated too much.. and usually you know.. that seasonal thing that you're always talking about comes into play as well :D

And to think aud/jpy was 83 in july. Man s$@#%#!@!!!!

Thanks Music_Producer, I'll keep that in mind.... :)

Music_Producer

Dec 22, 2006, 08:42 AM

~Shard~

Dec 22, 2006, 10:05 AM

Haha.. just like I said.. it's a damn rollercoaster. Made 16 pips riding it (selling at the peaks and closing at the bottom) with multiple trades. It's a perfect 12-15 pip whipsaw range. I'm done for the day.. don't want to ruin all those profits.

Nicely done! I was thinking about popping in and out too, but just didn't want to trade on speculation, as I got burned by doing that before on the previous NFP report. :o ;)

Next year one of my resolutions is to turn it up a notch and start getting more serious with my trading. Larger lots, a tradethenews subscription possibly, that sort of thing. The past couple months have been good practice, but I'd confident and ready now to start making hundreds of dollars on average per trade instead of tens of dollars... ;) :cool:

nhallmark

Dec 22, 2006, 11:21 AM

~Shard~

Dec 22, 2006, 12:15 PM

I didnt trade either. The first spike was over when the news came out so I just watched it. I get so impatient when I dont make any money, but I keep reminding myself that Ive been doing this for less than a month.:)

Yep - patience is a virtue. You would be well advised to try and remove as much emotion from trading as possible. When emotions gets involved, nothing good comes of anything... ;) :cool:

forexpip

Dec 22, 2006, 02:37 PM

Does anyone know any good strategy for 30 minutes frame? I have found one in http://forexplace.blogspot.com/ including any good strategies. Anyone tested?
Sorry, i'm a beginner.

~Shard~

Dec 25, 2006, 11:17 AM

Merry Christmas everyone! Just thought I'd post the little present which CMC seems to have given to me for Christmas.

As you can see, even though CMC is closed for Christmas, apparently the AUD has magically appreciated over the JPY by a staggering 1900%! :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://img331.imageshack.us/img331/2869/audjpyul8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

As a result, if I could sell right now (which I can't :() the $50K I currently have open on my carry trade would be worth quite a bit! :D

I'm sure that once CMC reopens things will correct themselves, but man, would it ever be nice to be able to sneak a SELL order in right now... :D :cool:

Just thought I'd share this little amusing "glitch" which caught my eye when I logged on this morning. ;)

Merry Christmas to all and I hope 2007 is a prosperous year for everyone, both on the markets and otherwise. :cool:

nhallmark

Dec 25, 2006, 03:32 PM

Wow, Shard, that would be cool if you could sell right now.;) :D

Ive got a question: Chicago PMI is coming out thursday at 9am(central) and forexfactory has it listed as high impact and it says chicago PMI is a good gauge of the health of the business enviornment in chicago.

So my question is why is this high impact? Does chicago have more impact than, say, NY or LA. And why would any single city have a big impact on the economy when there are so many other cities?

Hope that makes sense:o

Music_Producer

Dec 26, 2006, 10:18 PM

Merry Christmas everyone!!! Man, Shard.. that would have been an awesome trade.. had you managed to execute it! Once Oanda 'deposited' 40 million $ in my account. :D Should have sued them.. they almost gave me a heart attack :eek:

nhallmark.. I am sure every city's PMI would be important.. but I don't know why they select Chicago. Maybe it's because it is the center of all currency, commodities trading and all that? There's nothing to trade this week really.. volume is going to be very thin.. I think I'll start trading soon as the new year rings in. Right now i feel lazy (after all the food and wine everyday) :p

~Shard~

Dec 28, 2006, 10:15 AM

Just traded the PMI, etc. #s and made a modest 5 pips by shorting the EUR/USD. Didn't know how things would react with the lighter trading volumes and such this week, plus with multiple reports, there's always the chance they might be conflicting...

Yay for my AUD/JPY carry trade though! :D Not only am I making interest on the trade but the pair itself has been performing great! I'm apprehensive on how much longer this can continue, but will enjoy the ride while it lasts! Next stop - 94 cents! ;) :cool:

nhallmark

Dec 31, 2006, 03:42 PM

I din't trade PMI. I just watched and now I see what you guys mean by "low volume".

Did that earthquake by japan have any affect on your carry trades?

~Shard~

Dec 31, 2006, 08:52 PM

Did that earthquake by japan have any affect on your carry trades?

Nope, she's still holding solid for me.

Caezar

Jan 2, 2007, 01:35 PM

I am not into forex trading, but I would to hear your advice in picking an online broker.

I intend to invest into ETFs for my retirement. I came across Interactive Brokers and am attracted by:
- the accessibility for international investors (I live in Taiwan and am susceptible to move anywhere in the world)
- the opportunity to hold accounts in different base currencies (I have savings in TWD, USD, EUR),
- the low transaction costs for securities and forex (to translate my TWD earnings into EUR investments)

The downside is that I will make a few transactions every year (I believe in efficient markets and intend to mostly buy and hold for many years) and will be charged a monthly fee of 10USD regardless.

I also have questions about the broker's financial strength, as it is not adossed to a well-known financial institution.

Do you have any recommendation?

nhallmark

Jan 3, 2007, 09:40 AM

made 4 pips on the ADP employment report today. Im about to trade the ISM reports. It seems that the news keeps coming out maybe half a second before the spike and Im wondering if the audio is really that much better?

I was thinking about it and it seems like the audio would take longer. For example, this morning, if the guy said "ADP employment" "-40K V 120KE", then by
the time he has named the report a second or two has gone by. Am I right or does it come out with enough time to get in?

nhallmark

Jan 3, 2007, 10:36 AM

made 3.5 pips on the ISM reports. oanda slipped on my game account. if they hadnt I would have made over 20 pips.

Did you guys trade this morning?

~Shard~

Jan 3, 2007, 01:21 PM

Well done nhallmark! Alas I am at work today and unable to trade. :( I would have liked to, but there'll always be another time. ;)

Is that the tradethenews service you're using? Sounds good, especially if you get data just before the spike (sometimes at least). I plan on demoing it out in the near future, and if it works that well I might just have to invest the $40/month in it... :cool:

In the meantime, go AUD! ;) :D

Music_Producer

Jan 3, 2007, 05:45 PM

Happy New Year my trader friends :D

I tried trading the ADP but CMC gave me a re-quote.. so that was a no trade. I traded the ISM for 25 pips.. was a great trade.. can't believe that the GBP dropped more than a 100 pips last night (from the london session onwards)

nhallmark.. the way they 'say' the news on ttn is 'minus 41, minus 41.. adp is minus 41'. So they will say the number rightaway.

Shard.. lol.. yeah AUD's going crazy. I see 96 being approached and then i'll back off. It might go above 100 but I'd rather collect some profit than nothing. Cheers!!

~Shard~

Jan 3, 2007, 06:30 PM

Happy New Year my trader friends :D

And the same to you my friend - you're pretty much the reason I'm doing forex trading now, you realize, so thank you! ;) :)

I tried trading the ADP but CMC gave me a re-quote.. so that was a no trade. I traded the ISM for 25 pips.. was a great trade.. can't believe that the GBP dropped more than a 100 pips last night (from the london session onwards)

Yeah, I wish I was home for that one. I guess that's the trade-off between having a day job and just doing day trading itself - I can't always have it both ways... :o ;) Too bad these announcements didn't come out at 7:30AM CST like the majority of them do, as I can at least trade those before I head into work at 8:00.

We'll see how this year goes - perhaps I will make enough to justify quitting my day job and just trade for a living. Still interested in starting up some type of fund Music_Producer? ;) :D

Shard.. lol.. yeah AUD's going crazy. I see 96 being approached and then i'll back off. It might go above 100 but I'd rather collect some profit than nothing. Cheers!!

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Rumor has it Japan will announce another rate increase this month, which might at least put some temporary downward pressure on the AUDJPY trade. I'll be watching closely and will not get too greedy... ;) :cool:

Ooh, looks like NFP is this Friday - that's always a fun trade... :D

nhallmark

Jan 3, 2007, 10:10 PM

nhallmark.. the way they 'say' the news on ttn is 'minus 41, minus 41.. adp is minus 41'. So they will say the number rightaway.

Is it fast enough to get in before or right at the spike? because the text is coming out to where I get in at 2/3 of the spike at the soonest.

You've already said it was faster. I guess Im just wondering if its worth the $175 ?

nhallmark

Jan 4, 2007, 10:03 AM

I just watched the ISM Non Manufacturing this morning. The numbers came out roughly as expected and its just now causing a small spike of about 7 pips. glad I didnt trade.

Music_Producer

Jan 5, 2007, 07:11 AM

nhallmark.. it's worth the money if you're trading significant amount of units.. doesn't make sense to spend $175 on news subscription and making $150 a month ;) I think they have an audio trial though.. so check it out and see if it works for you.

Shard.. hope you've exited your carry trade position.. it's the new year.. so jpy's coming back up :p

ISM trade yesterday was crap.. hardly any deviation.. was a good thing I didn't enter. Just made 21 pips on the USD/CAD on the Canadian report.. loved it.. nice smooth ride. No whipsaw crap.

Now for today's NFP. Am I trading? Yes.. I know i have to.. because it's fun. Be prepared for freezing platforms.. slippage, etc.. lol. I'm just trading with 10,000 units. It's pretty easy to wipe out a month's profits with one NFP trade. I probably won't even get my trade executed by cmc (btw.. they let me trade CAD with no problems) Good luck!

~Shard~

Jan 5, 2007, 07:59 AM

Shard.. hope you've exited your carry trade position.. it's the new year.. so jpy's coming back up :p

Yep! Believe it or not, I sold before the dip - exited at 94.67 actually. :) A combination of my technical analysis as well as a correct prediction on a correction in the commodities sector led me to pull the plug, and it was definitely the right call! Also made some nice money shorting oil... she's just below $55 as we speak...

Now for today's NFP. Am I trading? Yes.. I know i have to.. because it's fun. Be prepared for freezing platforms.. slippage, etc.. lol. I'm just trading with 10,000 units. It's pretty easy to wipe out a month's profits with one NFP trade. I probably won't even get my trade executed by cmc (btw.. they let me trade CAD with no problems) Good luck!

Yeah, I'll be trading it too, but only because it's so much fun. ;) :D I'll be using smaller lot sizes as well and we'll see what happens. I believe the #s are supposed to be lower than last months, so I guess I'll be prepared to SELL the USD, but who knows! I'll report back in after the trade and once I get to work. :cool:

Music_Producer

Jan 5, 2007, 08:11 AM

Yeah, apparently there are rumors flying around that it's going to be a bad number.. so I'm wondering if the markets are driving down the GBP/USD.. and then will pounce back with a vengeance with a bad NFP report.

More than that, I am extremely wary of deviations. Stupid deviations can throw off even a horrible report and make the trade go the opposite way. Better be high on caffeine and get those trigger fingers ready!

Music_Producer

Jan 5, 2007, 08:41 AM

54 god damn pips!!!!!! :D :D :D Imagine the profit if i had traded my regular size!!!! :mad: Man, this was the most fun I've ever had.

nhallmark

Jan 5, 2007, 08:49 AM

Damn!! That was smooth! I only made 9 pips(Im still working on my speed), but wow, no whipsaw and no revisions.

Music_Producer, I assume the audio came out soon enough for you to catch the majority of the spike...I'll give it another week and then Im going to have to get the audio. 54 pips...Im jealous:D ;)

Music_Producer

Jan 5, 2007, 09:07 AM

Actually the audio came out just as the spike started.. I would have made 85 pips or so had the audio come out a little sooner. But this was a nice big drop.. and the deviation was massive. Additionally, there were rumors that the NFP report was going to come out poor.. so this was a double whammy. Hence.. the nice spike down with no whipsaws. :)

Today's trades were terrific.. I just calculated my CAD profit and it was actually 27 pips.. not 21. So 27+54 = 81 pips in less than 3 hours :D

9 pips is good.. you're lucky you even got in the trade! :eek: Most people can't (I get in about 10% of the time) I feel really really sorry for a lot of folks who apparently bought the GBP/USD a few seconds before the NFP report came out .. ouch. I don't rely on rumors.. I would rather wait for the actual report. You never know if the leak came from someone at the Feds or an ice-cream vendor at the beach!!!

~Shard~

Jan 5, 2007, 09:37 AM

Well done guys! I ended up just watching this one. :o I saw the initial spike down, then the next one down, and I was wary of popping in as I thought there might be some correction, whhipsaws, etc. As it turns out there wasn't, but hey, hindsight is 20/20. ;)

So, I didn't pull the trigger this time, but there's always a "next time". ;) :cool:

Any thoughts on the next US report coming out this morning? I think it's in about half an hour...

nhallmark

Jan 5, 2007, 02:56 PM

One question-since the NFP was basically the opposite of the ADP report, is ADP going to have less of an effect next month?

Music_Producer

Jan 7, 2007, 06:06 AM

No nhallmark.. i think the adp report should move the market anyway (as long as its a nice deviation from the expected number) Never take anything for granted in this market.. even the dullest of reports can cause ripples if they turn out deviate by a big margin.

For instance, no one really cares about UK consumer confidence.. but once it deviated quite a bit.. and the pound dropped 90 pips. I missed that trade and since then I pay attention to every report.. well almost every report.

I'm feeling more giddy about the macworld expo than trading at this point :D Here's hoping that they come out with quad core macbook pros.. :eek: (just kidding.. before i get beat by somebody!)

nhallmark

Jan 7, 2007, 12:46 PM

For instance, no one really cares about UK consumer confidence.. but once it deviated quite a bit.. and the pound dropped 90 pips. I missed that trade and since then I pay attention to every report.. well almost every report.

Yeah, I've been ignoring the minor reports, but I'll start paying attention.

I stopped watching USD/CAD because it never moved and then as soon as I stopped there were some good trades that I missed. Im keeping a log in iCal now so I can look back m/m to see what happened with each trade.

I'm feeling more giddy about the macworld expo than trading at this point :D Here's hoping that they come out with quad core macbook pros.. :eek: (just kidding.. before i get beat by somebody!)

Im right there with you.:D;)

nhallmark

Jan 10, 2007, 10:02 AM

Um...right...so...uh about the uh...US trade bal...screw it-so what do you guys think about the iphone?!!!

I woke up this morning thinking yesterday was a dream, and then I freaked out all over again when I remembered that it really happened.

Did you guys see the other stocks(RIM, Palm, Moto, etc.)?:eek:

That was crazy. If...Im sorry, WHEN the iphone takes over, do you think there might be a broker that will finally make a platform for the mac, since they make platforms for Blackberry?

I dont want to trade on my phone, but Im thinking, if the iphone runs os x and they make a trading app for it, then 90% of the work would be done to port it to the mac.

just a thought.

I didnt trade the US trade balance this morning. It didnt deviate that much(because 1.8 billlion isnt "that much":p ) and it only moved about 10-15 pips initially.

Anyway, I'll be trading every trade I can so I can get that phone!!:D ;)

Nathan

P.S. I am a little worried that steve said nothing about leapord or new mac hardware, but its the second week of the new year, so Im sure he'll pull through.

~Shard~

Jan 10, 2007, 12:51 PM

Yeah, the new iPhone looks pretty sweet. No mention of Mac updates, iLife, iWork or Leoaprd though, but all in good time. ;) Personally, I wouldn;t be surprised if iLife and/or iWork undergo some significant updates/enhancements which will be incorporated into Leopard, thereby resulting in a tandem release. I guess time will tell...

As for this morning, I traded the US #s and made 4 pips on a $100K lot - so $40 isn't bad. ;) I'm in my AUDJPY carry trade again and am about break even on it (including the interest) so I'll hold it until the BoJ announcement next week, let the dust (if any) settle, and decide where to go from there.

nhallmark

Jan 10, 2007, 07:45 PM

Im getting up early to trade the GBP and EUR interest rates tomorrow. forexfactory is saying they will stay the same. Have you guys heard anything to the contrary?

Oh yeah, I went back and looked at the spike on the US #s after I woke up more and I realized that I even if I had got in at the very bottom and closed at the very top of the spike, I still would have lost money because oanda widened the spread to like 20 pips!!:eek: . The spread was wider than the actual spike. I really hope they dont do that again.

~Shard~

Jan 10, 2007, 07:58 PM

Im getting up early to trade the GBP and EUR interest rates tomorrow. forexfactory is saying they will stay the same. Have you guys heard anything to the contrary?

Not really, although there's always a ton of speculation out there. ;) Just remember, interest rate hikes = good for the currency since more people will want to invest in it. ;)

Oh yeah, I went back and looked at the spike on the US #s after I woke up more and I realized that I even if I had got in at the very bottom and closed at the very top of the spike, I still would have lost money because oanda widened the spread to like 20 pips!!:eek: . The spread was wider than the actual spike. I really hope they dont do that again.

That pretty bad. I'm glad CMC has fixed spreads. :cool:

Oh, and I traded the AUD employment #s half an hour ago, in a manner of speaking. I was already into my carry trade for $50K (I got back in a couple days ago with a relatively small amount, just in case...) so I watched for the announcement (ready to bail if necessary!) but saw that it was positive, so I doubled down! :eek: :D

So, a nice jump of almost 60 pips has made me a very happy Forex trader tonight! :D I sold half my position to take some money off the table and lock in some profit and will let the rest ride to see if there is further upswing or not - and if not, I'll just carry it for the interest. I'll probably put in a stop in case there is a significant correction, just in case.

Anyway, awesome day for me - a profitable USD trade this morning and now this one! :D :cool:

Amber

Jan 10, 2007, 08:28 PM

~Shard~

Jan 10, 2007, 09:01 PM

This sounds very interesting. I've had a go with the demo play of a forex program before.

I'd really like to start trying with real money. Does anyone know of any goods sites to start off with? What program do you use to buy and sell?

Oanda is good for practice. The majority of us here use Oanda or CMC Markets (the latter being my platform of choice.)

Also, how much does someone really need to start trading money wise?

Very tough question. Don't trade with any more than you're willing to lose. And please, I beg of you, make sure you fully understand the concepts of margin and leverage. Otherwise you could end up in a world of hurt.

On the one hand, due to margin, you don't need a lot of money, but this can also get you into lots of trouble. I would recommend starting off with a small amount of money, concentrate on making only a few dollars here and there, and slowly double your initial investment. Sue, it might be only doubling it form $50 to $100, which may not seem like a lot (not enough to retire on, that's for sure! ;) :D) but it's an important first step. With the trading that myself and Music_Prodcuer do for instance, we're essentially risking hundreds of dollars every second. If things went really wrong for us on a trade we could lose $1000 in a minute! :eek:

Anyway, I would recommend reading through the entire thread. It may be long, but it will answer a lot of your questions and be educational. Any other questions, please by all means post them here and we'll be happy to help you out. :cool:

Edit: As for informative sites, just do a Google search. Also, you can try out (http://www.fxcm.com/what-is-forex-trading-overview.jsp) these (http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/) sites (http://www.babypips.com). This is an excellent book (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0070647623/ref=pd_sim_b_1/002-3481509-1540047?%5Fencoding=UTF8&v=glance&n=283155) as well in my opinion. :cool:

Amber

Jan 10, 2007, 09:42 PM

Thanks! Some good stuff to keep me going there. Right now I'm not working. I make all my money buying and selling items. Stuff from carboots, ebay, charity shops and make money on them. It's not loads but it's nice to know I'm living off my own instinct and flipping everything I buy.

I think it's interesting to follow what's going on the world to predict how it will effect currency.

~Shard~

Jan 10, 2007, 09:53 PM

Absolutely! It's not easy though.

In terms of economic data, here are two (http://www.fxtrade.com/resources/) sites (http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?page=calendar&day=&week=1167542000&month=1&year=2007&timezoneoffset=t-6) where you can view calendars so you know what announcements are coming up and when.

That's one of the things I like about forex trading - barring the unpredictable world events obviously, you know which announcements are released, what time and what the analysts are expecting. That makes trading on fact very easy to do and you don't have to get into the whole speculation game that is the stock market for the most part (trust me, I've lived there for many many years now.. ;) :cool: ) Plus, stocks can go to zero or move significantly in pre-market when you don't have a chance to act - the forex market is open 24/7 almost!

For me I find forex trading it is a nice balance between stock, equity and index trading. And it gives me a bigger picture on how everything is interrelated, which enables me to capitalize in many different ways. For example, the USD has an inverse relationship with Gold, so if the US announces a rate cut, I'll sell USD, buy Gold, probably buy an Oil futures contract and act on the S&P500 as well. :cool:

As I said, any other questions, feel free to ask.

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 12:55 AM

Ahh, I missed out on that AUD trade today :mad: Completely forgot about it! Made 15 pips on the UK report (Trade balance).. zero on the US trade balance because I got a re-quote.. don't think I would have made anything anyway as it was a no trade.

But yeah, that iphone is sweet! I think I was quite distracted while trading (which is why i made only 15 pips instead of 25-30).. I kept dreaming about it, 8 core mac pros, steve jobs inviting me for lunch and making me his successor and so on.. lol. I was actually hoping that the iphone would have video iChat capabilities.. like folks in the far east have (video calling) Why the heck is mobile technology so slow here?

Shard.. nice trades! I know that feeling.. when you make more than one profitable trade in a single day :) JPY is getting weaker again.. haha.. poor thing can never stay up for long. Hmm if AUD raises rates to 8% one day.. I think japan will run out of yen :D

Today (or tomorrow rather) I'll be trading the UK report at 1.30 am PST.. interest rates.. as always, I'll be ready. I don't think there is going to be any change.. but if there is.. I will trade accordingly.

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 07:14 AM

I knew those BOE guys have a tendency to shock the markets!!!! They hiked the rate from 5% to 5.25%.. 68 pips on a HUGE A$$ lot.. (it went to 150 pips.. and then came down quick.. by the time i got out i nabbed 68) Right now I want to get naked and run on the streets!!!!! :D :D :D :D :D

nhallmark

Jan 11, 2007, 07:14 AM

I was actually hoping that the iphone would have video iChat capabilities.. like folks in the far east have (video calling) Why the heck is mobile technology so slow here?

One of my friends is a manager at cingular(read: I get a discount) and he is always bitching about europe and asia and how they give them all the cool phones first and we get the leftovers.

But, Im sure they'll have iChat at some point, just like they added photos, video, etc. to the ipod.

Anyway, I made 30 pips on the GBP Interest rate;) :D !!! Thats the most Ive ever made in one trade, so far. Im glad I got up early.:)

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 07:16 AM

Damn, I still can't believe I didn't get out when it was at 150 pips... whooo.. I think I was just like 'huh?' Man, this just woke me up! Hopefully let's see if the EUR interest rates shock everyone too (generally no.. because ECB is quite boring)

I love the Bank of England and I love the Brits. This is how George Soros made his billion in one day.. (and I could have too.. if I had the funds to trade with) Ahhhh.. satisfied :)

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 07:35 AM

Way to go nathan! If that spike had lasted a longer time, we would have made much more.. but there must have been tons of profit taking in a few seconds.

Stay alert for the ECB rate decision.

nhallmark

Jan 11, 2007, 07:50 AM

Thanks,Music_Producer. Ive emailed tradethenews about getting a trial of the audio so hopefully, I can work my way up to that 68 pips!!:D .

Yeah, EUR didnt move. I was thinking I would get up this morning, both of them would come out as expected and I would go back to sleep. But, that GBP rate hike woke me up!! Now, Im all excited but the fun is already over.:p

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 07:52 AM

No change in eur rates, so obviously a no-trade. It was a little amusing to watch the EUR/USD climb up though.. in anticipation of a rate hike. Anyway, next important trade is tomorrow US Retail Sales report. I won't be trading the ECB chief's speech.. because i hate trading speeches.

~Shard~

Jan 11, 2007, 10:10 AM

Well done guys! I managed to nab 25 pips myself on the GBP trade, so not too shabby being that I wans;t prepared and not using a proper news service! ;) :D Unfortunately I only had my default $50K lot going since I wasn't expecting a hike, but hey, no need to get too greedy!

I also woke up to find my AUDJPY carry trade is doing even better now - she's over 94, up roughly 150 pips in the past couple of days! I have a stop in to protect my profits, but otherwise I'll let it ride.

I'll have to look at my economic calendar - when is the next really busy week in terms of major announcements? I should sign up for my free week trial of tradethenews during that week to make the most of it. ;) :cool:

nhallmark

Jan 11, 2007, 11:36 PM

OK, So I've got a question - assuming Im an experienced trader, would it be reasonable to expect to make 300 pips a month?

It just occured to me that if you make 300 pips a month and you're trading on a 50:1 margin, you would roughly double your account balance every month.

And then it occured to me that if that worked and I took the equity from my house to trade on which is roughly $20K(not very smart, but just follow me), I would make something like 36.4 MILLION dollars in 1 year.:eek: and after two years I would be a billionare at the ripe old age of 22!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

But Im sure Im missing something, and theres probably a cap on how much you can trade on margin or something.

Anyway, its just a thought I had.

Any feedback?

Music_Producer

Jan 11, 2007, 11:58 PM

It is possible to make 300 pips a month nathan.. but obviously that depends on how many economic reports are to be released in that month, the general trading volume (during the holiday season it gets really weak) and your broker execution.

I know its just a thought.. but do NOT get a loan, or home equity.. even if it's just a hypothetical calculation. You will be stressed in a manner that's hard to explain.. you will then be forced to make so many pips so as to cover your payments, etc. It's best to trade with 10% or so of your savings (that's my theory)

There's really no cap or anything as to the volume you can trade with.. but if you're planning on trading with big money (like hedge funds do) you'll be better off with an ECN broker that provides Currenex, or FXall, etc. They provide solutions for banks and individual fund managers.. so you can be assured that you will get better execution. Also, it would then be imperative to get a bloomberg or reuters news platform.. trade the news won't cut it.

But, yes, it is possible to make 300 pips in a month, and to double your account. My modest goal is 5% a month, but I frequently exceed that. This month my return is 124% so far.. but one bad trade (especially with a huge lot) could bring that number down. So you would have to exercise caution when trading highly volatile events like Non Farm Payroll, or any report which can cause whipsaws. They can make you rich.. or make you go bust.

I prefer trading highly volatile reports with a small lot.. and regular reports with bigger lots. That would be the one reason why my profits have been consistent. And that I have developed, by now.. crazy trigger fingers :eek:

If you do become a billionaire you owe me and Shard a couple of millions each for prodding you on :D :p

Music_Producer

Jan 12, 2007, 12:01 AM

Wait nathan.. lol.. you got your math wrong. You make 36 million in 1 year.. so in 3 years total..you will have made $108 million. $100 million is not a billion $.. its $1000 million (one thousand million) that makes a billion!

So when you realize that Soros made a billion pounds (or almost 2 billion $) that's - 2,000 *million* dollars. In one day. That's why he's probably like the 'God of forex traders' .. atleast to me :)

nhallmark

Jan 12, 2007, 12:18 AM

I know its just a thought.. but do NOT get a loan, or home equity.. even if it's just a hypothetical calculation. You will be stressed in a manner that's hard to explain.. you will then be forced to make so many pips so as to cover your payments, etc. It's best to trade with 10% or so of your savings (that's my theory)

If I actually did that, it would be from selling my house, so I wouldnt be paying it back and its money I wouldnt have otherwise. In other words, I can get buy without it.

If you do become a billionaire you owe me and Shard a couple of millions each for prodding you on :D :p

No problem!!!:D

Wait nathan.. lol.. you got your math wrong. You make 36 million in 1 year.. so in 3 years total..you will have made $108 million. $100 million is not a billion $.. its $1000 million (one thousand million) that makes a billion!

That's if you're adding. If I made 36 million in one year by doubling my account balance every MONTH, then by month 13 I would be at 72 million, month 14 = 144 million, month 15 = 288 million, etc.

right?:confused:

Music_Producer

Jan 12, 2007, 02:14 AM

Ahh.. then yes, you are right.. I was simply adding. I didn't do the math by doubling the account bit.. but it seems like you would reach a billion. Well, get there fast!! :)

Would be even better if that money was earning interest all the time.

Music_Producer

Jan 12, 2007, 08:42 AM

Traded this one on Oanda and profited about 11 pips because of the spread. CMC has been behaving erratically today.. so I didn't want to risk trading on it. It kept freezing.. and then shutting down.

Oanda's spread was just nuts.. 20 pip on GBP/USD. Anyway, a small profit is better compared to a platform that was glitchy. How did you guys do? God, I love Oanda's execution and no re-quote crap.. but their spreads are just too much. Although yesterday, I am sure it was worth it because of the pound's huge move.

66074

nhallmark

Jan 12, 2007, 09:28 AM

That's funny that you were having those problems with CMC because 5 minutes before the trade, my window kept disappearing and I had to go log back in 2-3 times.(with oanda on my game account)

So, when it came time to trade, I clicked and it took at least ten seconds before it executed and usually when it does that, they will still fill you in at the original quote but this time, when it finally went through, it filled in at the very bottom of the spike and when I realized it I closed, making a loss of 7 pips.

I assume that they dont do that with a real account. Im going to start trading $2(50:1, so a pip is 1 cent) on monday in my real account just to see if it does that.

Im pissed because, yesterday, ttn gave me the free audio trial for a week and this was my first chance to use it. Looking back, I cant think of anything I did wrong(like taking time to think, etc.) He announced the #s and I clicked.

I logged in to my real account after the trade to compare and it seems they only widened the spread on the real accounts this time.

So, real accounts = insane spread, game accounts = retarded execution.(i know it isnt like this every time, im just pissed:mad: )

Whatever. Hopefully it wont happen again.

Music_Producer

Jan 12, 2007, 09:59 AM

Nathan, the Oanda game account is nothing compared to the live trading account. The live account is obviously stable (except during nfp.. some nfps) , but yes.. the spreads are there. They did reduce them to 20 though.. initially they used to be 25.

I really like Oanda's execution.. with CMC you might make 50% of all trades.. as you will get a re-quote. Both have their pros and cons.. but I like the fact that Oanda keeps paying you interest on a daily basis.

~Shard~

Jan 12, 2007, 10:27 AM

Traded the retail sales #s this morning, made 2 pips on CMC - not much movement, really. $20 is better than nothing though. ;)

So nhallmark, ttn gave you a free audio trial as well? So if I sign up for a free trial for their news service, I can then essentially sign up again and get another week free using their audio service? Or did you have to contact them directly to get that free audio trial?

nhallmark

Jan 12, 2007, 10:41 AM

So nhallmark, ttn gave you a free audio trial as well? So if I sign up for a free trial for their news service, I can then essentially sign up again and get another week free using their audio service? Or did you have to contact them directly to get that free audio trial?

I signed up for the free trial back at the end of november and they let it run at least three weeks before ending it. When you sign up, the trial is for everything(text, audio, etc. for forex, stocks, etc.). Then I started paying the $40 a month for just the forex text news.

I never really used the audio in my trial because I was still figuring all this out. Then, Music_Producer said he used the audio, so I emailed ttn and asked if they would let me try the audio for a few days because I didnt get to use it the first time and they are now giving me free audio until the 19th.:)

So, I guess you could do the same thing. They are really nice about everything.

~Shard~

Jan 12, 2007, 10:45 AM

I signed up for the free trial back at the end of november and they let it run at least three weeks before ending it. When you sign up, the trial is for everything(text, audio, etc. for forex, stocks, etc.). Then I started paying the $40 a month for just the forex text news.

I never really used the audio in my trial because I was still figuring all this out. Then, Music_Producer said he used the audio, so I emailed ttn and asked if they would let me try the audio for a few days because I didnt get to use it the first time and they are now giving me free audio until the 19th.:)

So, I guess you could do the same thing. They are really nice about everything.

Wow, that's really great customer service, good to know, thanks. :cool: Hopefully I'll get lucky and end up with longer than a week on my trial as well, and then perhaps I'll try and squeeze a little more out of them like you did as well for the audio peice by pleading ignorance. :o ;)

Martinus

Jan 15, 2007, 12:14 AM

Music_Producer

Jan 15, 2007, 03:28 AM

You guys have written so much about Forex. I'm quite impressed by the level of commitment you have for teaching others about forex. I've read all 34 pages so far.

Just replying to tell you all that you're doing a great job. Keep it up.

You're welcome.. and by the way, I'm doubly impressed that you have read all the pages :eek: :D

Shard, you still in your carry trade? I exited today.. at 94.50. Today's report is the UK PPI, but it might not be that exciting because trading volume will be low (US holiday)

foidulus

Jan 15, 2007, 04:16 AM

saving money for a move to the country that uses said currency? I am considering going to Japan to attend grad school and I would like to try to take advantage of the current strength of the dollar visa vis the yen. If I buy a whole bunch of yen using forex, can I get that money back in yen? Or would I have to convert it back to USD then withdraw yen at an ATM for example?

Also, is it possible to earn interest on your forex holdings? I mean, could I use it to start a euro denominated bank account?

Martinus

Jan 15, 2007, 08:02 AM

From what I understand, there is a base currency in your forex account. You input money into your account from this currency (USD for example), and can only retrieve money via that currency. If I'm wrong, please correct me. This may have changed.

Not sure why you want a Euro based bank account, but you can easily open one at most major North American banks. Just walk into the branch you deal with and tell them you want to open a Euro account. They will likely ask for a higher monthly fee and a minimum deposit.

It is possible to gain interest on currency currently in a trade (for the full value of the trade, not just the amount you have invested. It has been suggested that a buy order on the Aussie dollar from Yen would yeild a 6% interest rate differential. If you do this, use Oanda as it offers daily interest. Also make sure to keep a large amount of currency unused to account for dips.

If you're going for grad school, it might be best to open a Japanese Bank Account while you're there, and make one big conversion at the start. From there, you can put your money into forex if you would like to assume some risk. Retrieving money from a foreign ATM often costs lots of money. $5-$10 per transaction is standard. Having a Japanese account will fix this problem.

I don't know Japanese Banking law at all, but you might have problems opening an account as a foreigner. Make sure to consult your grad school about opening an account.

~Shard~

Jan 15, 2007, 08:44 AM

Shard, you still in your carry trade? I exited today.. at 94.50.

Nope, my stop hit last night while I was asleep @ 94.60. She seems to have pulled back a bit today, so I think I'll just watch it for now. There's the BoJ announcement Thursday too, so not sure if I want to be in the carry trade when that news comes out - you never know what might happen. That being said, I'll definitely be ready to trade it the second the news hits. ;)

Music_Producer

Jan 16, 2007, 06:31 PM

19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably profit-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session.

ZEW sentiment report only got me 5 pips.. didn't move much anyway.. was given a 're-quote' for the US Empire State Business Conditions Index. It seems like CMC lets me trade the UK reports.. but when it's US reports.. I get re-quoted all the time. Apparently a lot more people trade the us reports than the uk ones.. so maybe there is just too much volatility at that time.

Canadian interest rates were left untouched. We have a busy week.. tomorrow is US PPI and TIC reports. I just realized as I'm typing this.. I sound rather dull (as compared to - i made 19 pips today! woo hoo!) I'm so sleepy, and it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o

nhallmark

Jan 16, 2007, 08:38 PM

19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably profit-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session.

I got up at 3am yesterday and today(for PPI and CPI) and Ive counted 6 trades so far that Ive sat out on. I was ready to trade CPI this morning but when it came out 3.0 V 2.9E I decided to watch because it was so close and ttn was reporting a lot about which way it would go.

Now, I see you made money so I wish I would have went for it, but Im playing it safe.

I just realized as I'm typing this.. I sound rather dull (as compared to - i made 19 pips today! woo hoo!) I'm so sleepy, and it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o

Yeah, its about 27 here...it sucks and I would wager that Shard isnt that thrilled about it, being in Canada and all :p

Anyway, Im getting really impatient because Ive sat out on six trades and I changed my sleep schedule to catch more trades, so Im dying to just click "buy" but I might as well quit it all together if I did that.

So, Im deciding whether to get up again at 3am, tomorrow morning for GBP "Claimant count change", Average Earnings, and unemployment rate.

I haven't traded that before(the UK #S), so is it worth it to get up?

~Shard~

Jan 16, 2007, 11:19 PM

19 pips on the GBP/USD trade (UK CPI report) .. although the pound hit 1.9705 and then there was a massive selling session (probably profit-taking) which drove it down to almost 1.9600 during the US session.

Nice one Music_Producer! I made 7 pips on the Empire Survey myself this morning... Man, I need to get tradethenews going, I'm trading handicapped without some type of news service - I think I'll assign up in the next week or so.... :cool:

it's abnormally cold here in CA (20 degrees this morning when i was trading) I just want to sleep all day :o

nhallmark is right, you have nothing to complain about - it warmed up today to about -20 Celsius. :eek: :p Actually, in all honesty, it's not that bad. A couple weeks ago it was above zero here which was really nice for this time of year. I don't mind the cold at all, but I suppose if you're not used it it.... :o ;)

I'll be trading the PPI numbers tomorrow - we'll see what happens... :cool:

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 02:52 AM

nhallmark is right, you have nothing to complain about - it warmed up today to about -20 Celsius. :eek: :p Actually, in all honesty, it's not that bad. A couple weeks ago it was above zero here which was really nice for this time of year. I don't mind the cold at all, but I suppose if you're not used it it.... :o ;)

I'll be trading the PPI numbers tomorrow - we'll see what happens... :cool:

Holy crap!!! With those sort of temperatures.. no matter what news platform you have, your brain will still lag :p :D

nhallmark.. the UK reports are not worth waking up for today, only the US ones. Good luck everybody!

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 08:35 AM

Got a re-quote :mad: Pisses me off when I stay up all night and then they don't let my trade go through.. could have made an easy 20 pips.

nhallmark

Jan 17, 2007, 08:44 AM

I lost 6 pips because oanda widened the spread to 20 again.:mad: I should have waited because GBP/USD dropped another 10-15 pips after they lowered the spread.

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 08:52 AM

Nathan, what's odd is that they didn't raise the spread of the EUR/USD.. only that of the GBP/USD. The report wasn't that great to make a huge move.. the deviation was there.. but not that much. With Oanda, you have to take into account the atrocious 20 pip spread (sometimes 25) so you better pray for a big move to make some profit.

I suppose a no-trade because of a re-quote is better than a trade with a 20 pip loss rightaway :eek:

Edit : TIC report next

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 09:18 AM

16 pips on the TIC report.. thank goodness I can finally get some sleep!! :D

nhallmark

Jan 17, 2007, 09:19 AM

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 09:34 AM

Yeah...same thing just happened with TIC. Lost 10 pips. And Im trading real money too.(1 pip=1 cent) Its funny how they rarely raise the spreads on the game accounts to get you in and then once you start for real, its like "WTF? I did everything right and I lost money":mad:

Im about ready to change brokers now.;)

Lol.. true, almost true of every business actually. I was quite mad at first when I discovered this (they started jacking up their spreads since mid-2006.. before that, it was always 2-3 pip spread.. even during news)

~Shard~

Jan 17, 2007, 11:32 AM

Only had time to trade the PPI this morning and made a modest 4 pips. :)

nhallmark

Jan 17, 2007, 01:16 PM

OK, so I opened an account with CMC and Im waiting on oanda to withdraw my money. In the mean time, I also opened a demo account with CMC so I can get used to their platform.

The sane thing would be to try out CMC before I go opening a real account with them, but I've counted 8 trades since monday that I would have traded if oanda 's spreads would allow you to actually make money(what a concept!) :rolleyes:

So, I'll use the CMC demo account for the rest of this week and next and then I will start back with real money(although CMC's minimum is $10K so I guess I'll start at $1 a pip).

I would rather get requotes and be able to trade at least 1% of the time than never.

nhallmark

Jan 17, 2007, 05:49 PM

~Shard~

Jan 17, 2007, 08:33 PM

Phone back and tell them that myself and Music_Producer jointly referred you and that we each want $250 in our accounts. :p ;)

And for that matter while we're at it, I think you need to phone them back too Muisc_Producer and get me another $500. :eek: ;) :D

Yeah, the guy I dealt with encouraged me to get other people signed up and so forth, but never mentioned any incentives - I just assumed it was standard sales tactics. But yes, they have always had excellent customer service every time I've dealt with them. I hope your experience with them is a good one. :cool:

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 08:39 PM

More like, make them pay $500 for every re-quote :D

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 08:44 PM

One of you guys could have made $500 off of me...if Im profitable. I just got off the phone with CMC. They were really nice..much better than oanda. Anyway, the guy said if I had any friends that I could refer them to CMC and if they open an account and start trading more than 1 lot, they would give me $500.

So, I dont know if they give you an affiliate link or if you are supposed to tell them the name of the person that refered you. Either way, did you guys not know about that?

No, we never got that sales pitch.. oh well, but yeah, Shard deserves all the affiliate income :) Someone suggested Dukascopy but I just looked at their commission and went 'Nahhhh..' We need to get hired by a bank, so we can make money for them (and ourselves) ;)

~Shard~

Jan 17, 2007, 08:44 PM

More like, make them pay $500 for every re-quote :D

Heh heh - yeah, I wonder how they'd feel about that... ;)

I see that the AUDJPY has crossed 95 - I wonder if it will hold? The Japan leading indicators report comes out in a few hours, and tomorrow is BoJ day - I wonder how that might affect it... Just not sure if now is a good time to pop back into a carry trade or not...

There's a lot of US data tomorrow being reported all at the same time - will you still be trading Music_Producer or do you think there will be conflicting reports?

~Shard~

Jan 17, 2007, 08:48 PM

We need to get hired by a bank, so we can make money for them (and ourselves) ;)

I wonder how we could go about that... What if we wrote a Business Plan and presented it to them, outlining our plans for making them (and ourselves!) money citing our experience and successes? Hmm, or are all those types of firms only interested in hiring people with CFAs and MBAs? :rolleyes:

Music_Producer

Jan 17, 2007, 09:15 PM

I wonder how we could go about that... What if we wrote a Business Plan and presented it to them, outlining our plans for making them (and ourselves!) money citing our experience and successes? Hmm, or are all those types of firms only interested in hiring people with CFAs and MBAs? :rolleyes:

Only CFAs and MBAs and people with trading licenses. Haven't you noticed that all the Wall Street 'experts' and 'analysts' come out with such retarded data? Makes me wonder how the hell they get hired and paid. :rolleyes:

I'll be trading the US core CPI.. if there are major conflicts I'll just exit right away. If JPY does not raise interest rates today, then look for AUD/JPY crossing 96.

~Shard~

Jan 17, 2007, 09:46 PM

Only CFAs and MBAs and people with trading licenses. Haven't you noticed that all the Wall Street 'experts' and 'analysts' come out with such retarded data? Makes me wonder how the hell they get hired and paid. :rolleyes:

Yeah, I know what you mean. The more and more experience I get in trading the markets I realize that those "experts" aren't a bunch of all-knowing oracles with amazing skills and knowledge - we could do it just as well in my opinion.

And my broker (which I only use for special investments I can't do on my own such as IPOs and real estate ventures or limited partnerships of that nature) is honestly nothing more than a salesman. That's all he is. It is my belief that all "investment advisors" are simply salespeople. A mutual fund company comes through town, offers incentives for their product and then the salespeople start pushing it, not because it's a good product but because they'll make the most commission on it. :rolleyes: Same with "personal banking officers" or whatever term they use these days. Credit cards, mortgages, lines of credit, funds, they are all simply vehicles which they are peddling and it all comes down to sales and commissions.

I'll be trading the US core CPI.. if there are major conflicts I'll just exit right away. If JPY does not raise interest rates today, then look for AUD/JPY crossing 96.

Sounds like a good plan - I'll be watching things very closely tomorrow. :cool:

nhallmark

Jan 17, 2007, 11:46 PM

I'll be attempting to trade with my CMC demo account tomorrow. I think Im going to have just the "single instrument window"(I read up on the user manual:p) open, the oanda chart open, and tradethenews.

Im not sure how much sense that setup makes, but its weird going from oanda to this, so Im going to try to have the oanda chart open until I get comfortable trading without it.

That's weird that CMC didnt say anything to you guys. Maybe they just started it.

Anyway, good luck tomorrow. :)

Music_Producer

Jan 18, 2007, 04:44 AM

Music_Producer

Jan 18, 2007, 09:41 AM

~Shard~

Jan 18, 2007, 09:48 AM

Well no JPY rate hike and AUD/JPY went up by 75 pips or so.. right now at 95.78. Sucks, I didn't get in because there was no specific time as to when the BOJ would announce the rate decision. Just some rumors that there was no rate hike.. but I don't trade on rumors.

Yeah, it was the same for me - I missed the announcement, and now I wonder if there's going to be a pullback or not. Ah well, I'll keep me eye on it and when it appears to stabalize a bit I might pop in again - I might do half now, half later just in case and just so I'm in the game at least.

No trade on the CPI this morning - #s were pretty much as expected, although BPs were significantly higher than expectations.

After the announcement I decided to try something a little different and a bit more risky in some respects - I decided to apply some of my technical analysis and so forth and try a long position in the EURUSD. As opposed to trading the news and having trades last a few seconds, I'm going to experiment with a couple different strategies (with small lots of course) and see if I can be profitable on "longer" trades (i.e. perhaps a few hours) based some of my experience with indicators, etc. We'll see how it goes! :cool:

~Shard~

Jan 18, 2007, 09:56 AM

10 pips on the US report :p The CPI came out as forecast.. no deviations.. but the housing numbers gave the USD a little edge. As I'm writing this it seems like the USD is taking a beating..GBP's gone up to 1.9710. Maybe the market is disappointed because the cpi number might indicate that there is no need to hike USD interest rate.

Yeah, I actually just checked the EURUSD pair and it looks like I'm already out of my trade! :eek: I bought after the announcement at 1.2920 and had a stop in at 1.2950. I'll take that... ;) Perhaps it was sheer luck (as I appreciate how volitile the currnecy market is) but I'm going to carry out a few more experiements based on my investing knowledge from the stock market and see how it translates... :cool:

~Shard~

Jan 18, 2007, 10:27 AM

nhallmark

Jan 18, 2007, 01:33 PM

Oh, and nhallmark, not sure where you're at with CMC and the real account, but besides the minimum account balance required, I believe CMC enforces minimum lot sizes. I'm not sure, but this might impact you if you were initially only wanting to trade small lot sizes - CMC might not let you trade anything smaller than a $10K lot, for example. Just something to be aware of...

Yeah, I posted about that earlier. With oanda, I was going to start out trading $2.50 or so(with 50:1 leverage on EUR/USD, its $100, so 1 pip=1 cent), but CMC's minimum is $10K so I guess I'll be starting at $1 a pip, which is a little uncomfortable starting out, but it will be ok because if I lose too much, I dont need to be trading with real money anyway.

Oh, by the way, is there a way to change your leverage with CMC? Or is it 100:1 across the board? I cant seem to find anything in the user manual about it.

nhallmark

Jan 19, 2007, 04:39 AM

Music_Producer

Jan 19, 2007, 05:00 AM

27 pips on the UK retail sales. Had a little trouble closing the trade, and wasted about 10-15 pips because of that delay.. but as long as it's a profit, all good. :D

Shard.. excellent technical trading skills, I wish it worked for me. Btw, I hate analysts because of a stock trade in which I lost $16,000. A bunch of 'experts' and analysts working for various financial firms were recommending this telecom company, and their decision was unanimous (you know - increased growth, blah blah..) So I bought that stock and in 2 days they filed for bankruptcy. I think I lost about 90% of my money on that day.. and just let the rest slide because when you've lost most of it.. you just can't close your position. You freeze..

Turns out that Amaranth invested most of their funds in oil upon an 'analysis' by goldmann sachs that oil would hit $100. :rolleyes: I thought that Amaranth's analysts or trade executives are morons for making a decision to invest most of their funds in one commodity.. but i thought it was *their* decision. They are even bigger idiots for trading based on goldmann sachs' prediction! How stupid is that?

Since then I keep reading what analysts' say and they're wrong 95% of the time. Its amusing. It must be nice to have their job, make the money and spew out any nonsense just to make a sales pitch. I wonder if the companies they promote pay them heavily ;)

Nathan, it's going to be a bit unnerving when you start trading bigger lots. It took me a long time to get to trading 100,000 units.. I was stuck at 70,000. Now I'm bored trading 100,000-500,000 units. When I trade a million units.. that's when I have my emergency cardiac defibrillator standing by :eek: But you are practicing on the cmc demo account first right?

Music_Producer

Jan 19, 2007, 05:03 AM

Just made 20 pips on UK retail sales!!:D ...with CMC, and I was using the text news on ttn because I just woke up at 3am(central) to trade this and my audio is back to "empty channel" so I guess my trial is over.

Anyway, I'll call them in the morning and sign up for the audio because its definetly worth it.

ForexFactory says US consumer sentiment at 9am(central) is high impact. Is that true, or did someone enter it wrong?

I seem to remember it not having much of an effect last time.

OK, now Im going back to sleep...:cool:

Hey!! Sweet!! :D

US consumer sentiment is high impact.. but i'm not trading it. I need to catch up on my sleep and I think I've made a decent amount for the day. Ahh.. looking forward to sleep all weekend.

Nathan, i don't think you're going to get much sleep, you're going to be excited about your 20 pip profit :p

nhallmark

Jan 19, 2007, 07:34 PM

Since then I keep reading what analysts' say and they're wrong 95% of the time. Its amusing. It must be nice to have their job, make the money and spew out any nonsense just to make a sales pitch. I wonder if the companies they promote pay them heavily ;)

There was a mac news site I used to go to and the "analysts" kept reporting that the "ipod will fail" etc. and finally someone broke up the word "analysts" with a "c" and started calling them "anal cysts":p

Nathan, it's going to be a bit unnerving when you start trading bigger lots. It took me a long time to get to trading 100,000 units.. I was stuck at 70,000. Now I'm bored trading 100,000-500,000 units. When I trade a million units.. that's when I have my emergency cardiac defibrillator standing by :eek: But you are practicing on the cmc demo account first right?

Yeah, I'll proably trade with the demo account throughout next week and then start with real money on the first.

Nathan, i don't think you're going to get much sleep, you're going to be excited about your 20 pip profit :p

Yeah, I didn't get back to sleep until 5:30am after laying back down at 4am.

The lack of sleep didnt help because I spent all day trying to get my money to CMC. I HATE my bank. I could go on with horror stories Ive had with them. I even had to file a police report on them once...but I dont want to sit here and type for an hour, so Ill leave it at that.

The only reason I havent closed my account is because we are planning on moving to los angeles later this year and I need to show a long term bank account for credit reasons.

Its Washington Mutual, in case youre wondering.:rolleyes:

Music_Producer

Jan 19, 2007, 07:46 PM

There was a mac news site I used to go to and the "analysts" kept reporting that the "ipod will fail" etc. and finally someone broke up the word "analysts" with a "c" and started calling them "anal cysts":p

LMAOOOO.. yeah, now I hate how they're banging on the iPhone without even trying it out. Losers :rolleyes:

Its Washington Mutual, in case youre wondering.:rolleyes:

No need to explain further.. I opened a checkings account with them once (I like to spread out my money in different bank accounts.. just a little protective measure against any risk) The retards froze my account when I made a $7000 deposit. They froze all my funds for 3 weeks, and actually threatened to close the account unless I provided them with my id, other bank statements, tax documents, etc. etc. After clearing everything up, I closed my account and everytime I see a WAMU ad on TV, I'm like ..yeah.. whatever.

Another company I cannot deal with is American Express. They closed 5 of my cards without any reason.. and wanted me to fax tax documents, etc. I did all that, and they still closed them anyway. Mind you, none of the cards had any sort of late payment. I usually pay off my cards a week after any expenses. I think they were just pissed that I spent so much money and got all those starwood points and delta miles :D I prefer Citibank (and citi cards)

Music_Producer

Jan 23, 2007, 08:11 AM

20 pips on the Canadian CPI report.. didn't trade a big lot though..somehow I'm not too comfortable trading USD/CAD as compared to GBP/USD. :o

Next up is Canadian Retail Sales (8.30 am EST)

nhallmark

Jan 23, 2007, 11:26 AM

yeah..its weird how the banks and card companies cant comprehend that you would actually play the game back at them :rolleyes:

Anyway, I just watched the CAD reports this morning because Ive sat through several CAD trades where it was high impact and the #s deviated but it didnt move...at all. So, Im just watching it for now and I might get into trading it in a few months when my profit is consistent with the US and UK reports.

Music_Producer

Jan 24, 2007, 06:40 AM

The NZD trade might be interesting i.e. if they hike their rates. I watched the GBP trade today.. there were 2 very important reports coming out at the same time :mad: .. that's 2 great trades wasted. First, the GDP came out really good, so the pound went up by 10-15 pips.. and a second later the BOE meeting minutes came out, and the vote was 5-4.. and the pound dropped by 40-50 pips. After a few minutes it went up gradually by 60 pips :eek:

It's best to stay out of the market when there are conflicting reports (in this case GDP was +ve but the BOE votes were unexpected.. forecast was 8-1 not 5-4) 5-4 means 5 people voted for a UK rate hike, and 4 did not. Which also means that future rate hikes for the pound are unlikely.

Shard, I traded the AUD/JPY today.. but in a different manner. I had my carry trade open since 95.02 or something like that.. and lol.. as soon as the AUD CPI came out worse than expected.. I hit 'sell' on aud/jpy and closed my position. The AUD/JPY since then dropped by more than 140 pips :eek: phew!!

So next trade is NZD interest rate decision (if I can wake up by then!)

nhallmark

Jan 24, 2007, 07:09 PM

I watched the UK reports also. I was planning on trading GDP but when I opened ttn they kept talking about the BoE meeting and that they would lead off with that number so I sat out and Im glad I did because I would be in a world of hurt right now if I traded based on the GDP #s.

I also watched the NZD rate announcement but it was obviously a "no trade" because they left it the same.

nhallmark

Jan 24, 2007, 10:46 PM

So Im looking at the calendar for next week and there will definitely be a good trade or six:p, but I noticed the US rate decision is next week. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?

yuhu

Jan 25, 2007, 09:01 PM

Hello Music_Producer, nhallmark, Shard

First of all, i would like to thank all of you here for sharing so much information about forex.

I stumbled upon this thread when i made the decision to start forex trading. I typed in "Forex for mac" in google to find platform trading for mac and found this thread.

I have read all the 35 pages and have been playing with Oanda game account for a lil over 3 days. I 'feel' that i might be ready to play with real account and start earning some $.

I have a few questions for you guys:
lets take last night as an example, forexfactory said German Consumer Confidence and German Ifo Business Climate Index were supposed to come out at 1.10am and 3.00am CST respectively. I have been waiting for the news to come out in bloomberg.com, and FXnews on Oanda. But they dont show up until 5 minutes later.

So my questions to you is where else can i look out for the news, other than TTN and of course the bloomberg's $1750?

I am planning to start with $500 - $1000 next week with Oanda real account.

My demo account was credited with $100,000 fake money, but I dont see any 'high' votality trades for the past 3 days or maybe i am wrong. But since MP didnot post any of his trades, i am taking that may be the market is 'slow'

So anyway, i hope that i dont lose any money :)

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 06:45 AM

Hey Yuhu, welcome to the club :) As far as news services.. I think TTN is the cheapest.. and it works well for the price. I know that Reuters is $750/month. You are at an edge when you have bloomberg/reuters but then again, if you have a broker who widens spreads, or gives re-quotes, etc.. you really have to consider if you should be paying so much for a great news services.. when you're trading with a sub-standard broker.

50% of my trades are never executed, because of re-quotes. I can live with that, but it gets really frustrating at times. Yes, this week has been a little slow.. with the minor reports that did come out, my trades never got executed, so this week certainly was a waste of time for me.

This morning there's the US Durable Goods orders report.. and then the new home sales reports.. these 2 should move the currencies if they deviate a bit. Good luck!

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 06:50 AM

So Im looking at the calendar for next week and there will definitely be a good trade or six:p, but I noticed the US rate decision is next week. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?

It's expected that rates will remain the same.. however, in my opinion (no one wants my opinion.. not the Feds!) they should hike the rates.. GBP/USD is close to $2 and everyday I see things like 'Kuwait is planning to reduce dollar reserves' or some other country is switching to euros. The Fed Chief should take action .. forget about the housing markets, forget about rising interest rates.. we need to have a stronger currency and then solve everything else.

If they cut the rates then look out for a major dollar sell off.

Shard, I finally figured out why the AUD/JPY dipped so much (more than 150 pips) :o As if the AUD CPI wasn't bad enough.. apparently there were talks that at the G7 summit, everyone was going to talk to Japan about how low their currency level is, and that they should do something about it. Which translates into 'Hey Japan, raise your interest rates already' So all the JPY pairs took a nice beating. However, the Japanese CPI came out softer than expected today.. so the carry traders are kinda coming back.

I think the Japs just keep talking all the time and giving threats of interest rate hikes.. but they really can't.. because of a soft cpi.. there is no need to raise rates. Sometimes I feel all these 'threats' or talks are simply opportunities for JPY pairs to fall.. enable some profit-taking and re-purchase at a lower price.

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 08:40 AM

19 pips.. USD Durable Goods Orders report came out WAY better than expected.. 2.3% when forecast was 0.5% :D

Next up, new home sales

yuhu

Jan 26, 2007, 08:45 AM

I bagged 18 pip on Core durable goods. Could have bagged 29 pips instead.

here is a screenshot of it. It was stopped by a Take Profit.

How did you guys do?

btw, Music_Producer, do you mind me asking what is the magnitude of money inside your account? Don't have to give the exact number.. :)

See you guys later.

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 08:55 AM

Yuhu, I have about $20-30,000 in my account at any time.. if there is an interest rate trade coming up in a few days.. I add more money so I can trade a huge lot. That trade only happens something like once a year, but it's a good 80-120 pip profit.

I'm quite poor compared to other traders :p ;) I just choose not to put all my money into a trading account.. there are some people who sell their house and then put all their money in an account, and go short/long hoping to make a profit. Doesn't work.

Btw, nice trade! What was the spread on Oanda for this report? From the screenshot it doesn't look like they increased it to a monstrous amount. I could have made more pips as well .. but for some reason I thought my trade didn't go through.. because my P/L section stayed at 0.00 for some time. I must have wasted a good 6-9 seconds to see if my trade did go through.. lucky it didn't reverse :eek:

nhallmark

Jan 26, 2007, 09:12 AM

damnit:mad: I lost 5 pips because CMC gave me a requote and as soon as I noticed the window was yellow it executed the requote and I KNOW I didn't click that button.

Music_Producer, do you have yours set up for the "one click" thing or do you use two clicks? Im thinking either its a glitch in the software or somewhere my account settings arent right.

Any input on why that might have happened?

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 09:38 AM

Nathan, i always set it to 'one click' Here is what i do

When i hit 'buy' or 'sell'

I immediately look at the 'executed orders' section.. if nothing shows up, then i know i'm getting a re-quote.. and surely, the yellow window pops up, and i hit 'cancel' or it just expires on its own. You sure you didn't click anything that might have accepted that re-quote?

nhallmark

Jan 26, 2007, 12:13 PM

Same thing happened on new home sales. lost 3 pips(l got out where I got in so I lost the spread). When you click buy or sell does it flash yellow for a split second before it goes green?

If it does then Im just slow, but if not then its automatically executing my requotes and I am 100% sure I didnt click anyhting.

It might be that Im just slow because Im still getting used to this software. This was my set up this morning...

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o53/nathanhallmark/fx1.jpg?t=1169831916

I think Im trying to pay attention to too much at once and its slowing me down. So, Im going to try this set up next week...

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o53/nathanhallmark/fx2.jpg?t=1169831958

What's the fastest in your opinon? Im thinking if I eliminate the oanda chart and the text news, I can act faster.

One other thing I forgot to post-last week when my audio trial was over with ttn they said if I choose to upgrade they could get me in at $123/month instead of $175 so I did it...thats $50 cheaper. So, I guess it was worth it to ask them for that trial because otherwise I would be paying $175

yuhu

Jan 26, 2007, 03:59 PM

Btw, nice trade! What was the spread on Oanda for this report? From the screenshot it doesn't look like they increased it to a monstrous amount. I could have made more pips as well .. but for some reason I thought my trade didn't go through.. because my P/L section stayed at 0.00 for some time. I must have wasted a good 6-9 seconds to see if my trade did go through.. lucky it didn't reverse :eek:

I didnt really noticed the spread as i was too nervous looking at the chart.
But after i closed my position, i noticed that the spread stayed the same at 1.8

I close my position in a matter of seconds (like 3 seconds) so perhaps the spread didnot move at all, but this is all in my game account.

Did you guys trade on New Home Sales? I overslept through that one.

yuhu

Jan 26, 2007, 04:03 PM

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 04:32 PM

Yuhu.. Oanda game accounts are different. The spreads remain at 1-2. So you would have gone in a loss had you traded with a real account. I just checked the spread at that time, and it was 20 pips. You would be -2 pips loss.

Nathan, I don't recall if the window flashes yellow when i hit buy or sell because i look at the executed order section rightaway. Are you using the cmc demo account or real account? And I don't use any charts. Too distracting for me, I just concentrate on the TTN audio. As I mentioned earlier, it takes a lot of practice to get ready to hear the audio and press buy or sell.

Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does profit-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:

nhallmark

Jan 26, 2007, 05:26 PM

Nathan,

Do you really need that Date andTime window?

The second one looks really neat.
btw, how long have you been using TTN?
You should definately try oanda, there is very little lag time, perhaps half a second.

I dont have to have the time window open but it helps because I watch it with my periphereal vision(I know I spelled that wrong. MP, your the doctor, how do you spell it?) and I know exactly when he will call the #s(most of the time). Ive tried it without it and I get "surprised" everytime and it slows me down.

Ive been using TTN since the the first of december. Their audio news is ten times better than oanda, IMHO.

Nathan, I don't recall if the window flashes yellow when i hit buy or sell because i look at the executed order section rightaway. Are you using the cmc demo account or real account? And I don't use any charts. Too distracting for me, I just concentrate on the TTN audio. As I mentioned earlier, it takes a lot of practice to get ready to hear the audio and press buy or sell.

I was using my real account, but only $1/pip...but still thats why Im so mad about it. I think I just need to clean up the windows and work on my speed.

Ive noticed that the oanda chart moves a second after the CMC ticker, so its really pointless having it open except for the visual reference.

Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does profit-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:

Are you mad because you didnt trade the upswing or am I missing something?

Music_Producer

Jan 26, 2007, 05:58 PM

I dont have to have the time window open but it helps because I watch it with my periphereal vision(I know I spelled that wrong. MP, your the doctor, how do you spell it?) and I know exactly when he will call the #s(most of the time). Ive tried it without it and I get "surprised" everytime and it slows me down.

Peripheral.. you don't have to be a doctor to spell that :p Btw, nathan.. i see that you're missing one window.. the spot/fx position window .. that tells you your profit/loss section. Keep the entire cmc platform open i.e. everything.. there is a time clock on the bottom of the window.. and it's pretty accurate. I get trigger-ready when its one second before an announcement.

I was mad because I didn't trade the upswing.. as I predicted it would happen. Its ok though, it could have gone the other way and ruined my profits for the day. I still need to learn to apply a little more self-control!

nhallmark

Jan 26, 2007, 06:37 PM

Peripheral.. you don't have to be a doctor to spell that :p Btw, nathan.. i see that you're missing one window.. the spot/fx position window .. that tells you your profit/loss section. Keep the entire cmc platform open i.e. everything.. there is a time clock on the bottom of the window.. and it's pretty accurate. I get trigger-ready when its one second before an announcement.

I was mad because I didn't trade the upswing.. as I predicted it would happen. Its ok though, it could have gone the other way and ruined my profits for the day. I still need to learn to apply a little more self-control!

OK, I was only off by one "e":p.

Yeah, Im trying to figure out a window set up that I feel comfortable with. Since I switched from oanda I feel like everytime I click buy or sell, Im closing my eyes and hoping I dont crash. I guess thats because Im a really visual person and with oanda I felt like I knew what I was doing because it was drawn out right before me.

But, then I realized on the CMC order window, "hey...nathan, those numbers there on the window...yeah, thats the price of the currency, idiot. It moves up and down just like the oanda chart"

So, Im getting used to it but I will keep the entire platform up and see how it goes.

Next week is big!(not that big, but lots of trades crammed into 3 days) Cant wait!

yuhu

Jan 27, 2007, 01:59 AM

Yuhu.. Oanda game accounts are different. The spreads remain at 1-2. So you would have gone in a loss had you traded with a real account. I just checked the spread at that time, and it was 20 pips. You would be -2 pips loss.

Yuhu, i couldn't execute my trade on the home sales. got a re-quote. I did have a feeling though that GBP is going to rebound after going down because its friday and everyone does profit-taking.. and it went up by 30 pips. :mad:

MP, perhaps i miss this, so are you using CMC or Oanda right now?
Damn.. 20 pip spread is bad...
I am going to open CMC demo account soon. Thank you for letting me know about Oanda's spread. I was already going to open a real account with them, but since the spread is like that, i am going to wait and switch to CMC.

Music_Producer

Jan 28, 2007, 03:18 AM

MP, perhaps i miss this, so are you using CMC or Oanda right now?
Damn.. 20 pip spread is bad...
I am going to open CMC demo account soon. Thank you for letting me know about Oanda's spread. I was already going to open a real account with them, but since the spread is like that, i am going to wait and switch to CMC.

Then you didn't read all 35 pages you liar.. or you would have known about Oanda's spreads :D :p

I use CMC for news trades, but like I said earlier.. they're kinda getting worse with their re-quotes. It's getting much harder to get in on the spike.. I'm thinking of 'fading the spike'

That's when the currency jumps 30 pips or whatever, and you trade in the opposite direction once that spike is out of steam. Very risky of course, but works for most people. I'll try doing that with a very tiny lot, and see how that works for me. The good thing is that you have a little more time to decide whether to hit buy or sell, and you also don't need to subscribe to any news service.. you simply see the chart and trade.

This is obviously not recommended for very significant reports like interest rate decisions, etc.. but for majority of reports, most traders do 'fade' the spike and they seem to be successful.

yuhu

Jan 28, 2007, 02:54 PM

I did read all the 35 pages :P

And i knew about Oanda's spread, and i thought that i read the reduced the spread back to normal?

So, do i still go with Oanda or CMC? What do you think?
I was thinking of going with Oanda, but small amount, perhaps $100 or $200.

nhallmark

Jan 29, 2007, 05:31 PM

yuhu, I would go with CMC. The requotes suck(according to MP, I have yet to experience one) but I would rather get a requote and not be able to trade than to have my entire profit and then some eaten by oanda's spread.

I switched to CMC a week or two ago because of that.

The only downside is the $2k minimum deposit.

If you cant afford it, you can try and trade the foreign reports on oanda because the spread usually isnt as bad on those.

About "fading", Im going to watch this week and see if it would be possible to do that. I just got through watching NZD building consents and it was a minor report so I didn't trade but if I would have "faded" that one, I would have made more than if I traded the spike...so Im definitely going to watch the other reports.

Music_Producer

Jan 30, 2007, 07:47 AM

I agree with nathan, cmc has a minimum deposit of $2k.. and one more thing, the minimum trading size is 10,000 units. Oanda gives you the ability to trade even 1 unit (no one would want to, but its nice to have that flexibility) So with cmc you start trading rightaway with $ 1 per pip (approx.)

I would stick with oanda for high-probability trades, such as interest rate decisions or non-farm payroll reports, because they execute, and the moves are usually 50 pips + Smaller reports, I tend to trade with cmc. Nathan, you might not be getting re-quotes yet, but when your trading lot size becomes bigger.. they might surprise you with re-quotes all the time.

CMC's a good platform, it might take a little while getting used to the layout.

Music_Producer

Jan 31, 2007, 08:53 AM

ADP trade was ok.. bagged 5 pips.. but GDP trade was a nice 24 pips. I believe GBP/USD has broken the 1.9500 barrier and is currently at 1.9490.. getting beat pretty bad!

Next trade is Chicago PMI at 10 am EST. Of course, interest rate decision is something to watch out for as well, although I think rates will be held steady. There might be some hawkish comments from the Fed, if that happens.. you will see USD go up. I don't know how much further gbp can fall though.. unless the chicago pmi comes out horrible.

nhallmark

Jan 31, 2007, 09:59 AM

..i didnt trade ADP because I didnt think it deviated enough and then I got my first requote on GDP:mad: Then I made 1 pip on PMI because I got in too slow.

But Im working on it!

Hopefully, the rate announcement will deviate. I highly doubt it but well see..

~Shard~

Jan 31, 2007, 03:49 PM

Hi guys, sorry I've been away for a while. Been busy with work, life and of special interest, trying to develop, analyze and backtest some technial trading techniques. I have been successful with stocks from time to time over the years with certain personalized "trading systems" if you want to call them that, using some of my technical analysis tools (MACD, RSI, Boilinger Bands, EMAs, etc.) and have bene trying to determine if some of the same techniques could work in the forex world (obviously when no economic announcements are coming out!). I've actually had a little bit of success, but more testing and analysis is required (for consistency), so I'll let you know how I make out... :cool:

For now, I traded the GDP #s this morning and bagged 4 pips - essentially I got out too soon. :o ;) I'll be subscribing to TTN in the next week or so, once I have more time and will hopefully do more trading as well, as I have been occupied otherwise this last little while.

Glad to see the threa dis still going strong though! :cool:

yuhu

Feb 1, 2007, 01:09 PM

yuhu

Feb 1, 2007, 01:31 PM

I agree with MP about sticking with Oanda for high probality trading.

I am now in the process of verifying my real account with Oanda, should be good to go later today.

MP, the spread of game account do change during news release time. This morning, the spread was 10.

Here is a screenshot of my trade (i think it was on Monday or Tuesday) I am really busy with college.. :(

Hi ~Shard~ :)

Music_Producer

Feb 1, 2007, 07:28 PM

Shard, let us know how the tech analysis stuff goes.. and what method works. There are so many systems out there, and every time I see a chart loaded with indicators I just want to close it :p

Yuhu, nice trade.. yeah cmc has nothing for the mac.. and btw, I had a close call this morning. First, I couldn't trade the GBP report (1.30 am pst) because of a re-quote. I was able to trade the US PCE report and I got about 12 pips on that.

Now, the scary part.. I was getting ready to trade the US manufacturing pmi.. and as soon as it came out.. I hit 'buy' (GBP/USD) since the numbers were bad. And, my platform crashed :eek: :eek: I was praying 'Please don't let my trade go through' and trying to start up the damn platform.. it finally opened.. and my profit/loss section showed '-$1800' :eek: :eek: because the stupid thing went up by 40 pips and then came down .. and went lower.

Of course i would have made a profit had the retarded platform not crashed.. but i was unable to close my positions. So I closed it for a -$1800 loss.. but then I figured that since the start of the NY session, there was intense selling pressure on the GBP. So I sold double the quantity of gbp/usd (a risky move) and luckily, it did go down and I recouped my losses. Phew!!!!!! Windows sucks!!!!!!!! That was one hell of a scary ride though.

Music_Producer

Feb 2, 2007, 08:10 AM

Be careful with the NFP report today.. I'm not trading it. Not even with a small lot, apparently there are a lot of rumors that there will be major revision to the tune of 810,000 jobs added.. and that's enough to cause massive whipsaws. And these are not rumors caused by traders, etc.. there's an article on CNN :

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/01/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007020115

If you're on a demo account, then surely go ahead. It makes more sense to stay away from this report than risk an enormous loss.

Music_Producer

Feb 2, 2007, 08:35 AM

Interesting.. looks like a bunch of traders got some inside info.. gbp/usd moved up by 20-25 pips just a minute before the actual report.. the number came at 111, so less than forecast.. I didn't trade the initial spike.. but 'faded' it.. for 13 pips. With only a 10,000 size lot obviously, and the damn thing whipsawed when the report came out.

Music_Producer

Feb 2, 2007, 08:40 AM

Wait, what was the spread on Oanda? Anyone traded on oanda? My charts show a 200 pip spread.. :confused: I don't think thats possible.

Edit : Never mind, it was 20 pips.. but at 5.29:12 .. for a few seconds, it went up to 200 pips. Lol.. probably to hit the stops of all the scalpers!!

nhallmark

Feb 4, 2007, 11:19 PM

Music_Producer

Feb 5, 2007, 01:46 AM

...(crickets) ... uh, so I lost 60 dollars on NFP on friday. Yep, didn't pay attention and I learned my lesson. GBP/USD seemed determined to stay below 1.9750 on thursday and friday. Oh well...I made 4 dollars on the AUD trade balance.

I checked this forum friday morning but there were no new posts and after I lost my money, I come back and MP is saying "dont trade NFP!!":p

That really needed to happen because Ive learned a lot from it. I was at barnes and noble this weekend and I picked up "the winning investment habits of warren buffet and george soros".

It deals alot with the psychology of it all. Its pretty good. Anyway, we'll see how this week goes...

See what I mean nathan? When you trade the most-traded report in the world, there is always a good chance to blow up all the profits made in a couple of weeks.. because it moves a lot. On top of that, there are spread increases, platform outages, etc. So why bother trading that one stupid report? I'd rather stick to the other, regular reports. NFP seems to lure ever trader.. it's like a death trap :eek: Btw, I gave the NFP warning before the report.. you probably didn't refresh the page or something :p

The only reason I trade NFP is for the fun bit, I can afford a little loss.. I trade a very small size.. but this time, after reading all those rumors about revisions, etc.. *and* seeing the gbp/usd jump up before the report actually came out.. I knew something was wrong, so I stayed out and faded the spike instead.

I traded the AUD retail sales today, and made 10 pips.. it did go down more after i exited, but all i needed to start the day was 10 pips, and that was good. Don't worry about the loss nathan, you'll recoup it.. just trade smart, and stay away from the risky ones. Avoiding a loss is as good as making a profit.

nhallmark

Feb 5, 2007, 05:27 AM

yeah, there really is no reason to trade it, especially when I dont know what Im doing.

I made 7 pips on AUD retail sales and 9 pips on GBP Services PMI which is a minor report so I traded it with 1 cent a pip on oanda and they didn't raise the spread...this time.:rolleyes:

nhallmark

Feb 5, 2007, 05:39 AM

oh..and thanks for the encouragement. I really do appreciate it.:)

Music_Producer

Feb 5, 2007, 08:57 AM

oh..and thanks for the encouragement. I really do appreciate it.:)

Of course, in fact.. just like you said.. a minor loss is necessary to get us back in place.. and trade correctly. Imagine if you had built up a balance of $20,000 or so and lost everything on one NFP trade. Now you're fully insured against such horrific trades :D

Music_Producer

Feb 5, 2007, 10:03 AM

10 pips on the US ISM non manufacturing index.. how did you do nathan? The gbp/usd didn't move that much (like 30 pips or so) so gains were limited.

nhallmark

Feb 5, 2007, 04:18 PM

i fell back asleep and missed it:mad: its probably because I woke up at 2:30am and stayed up until 5:45 and then tried to get up at 6:45. Oh well..

nhallmark

Feb 6, 2007, 02:30 PM

Music_Producer

Feb 6, 2007, 03:12 PM

Ive got a question...on ISM index, the # was good so GBP/USD originally fell, but then it retraced and went up for quite awhile.

Is this because ISM prices came out bad, which would mean inflation is lower, so less chance of a rate hike, etc.?

Or is there some other reason?

Not really.. the only reason being.. profit taking. If you noticed.. the GBP/USD had already fallen quite a bit.. and then the ISM #s came out good, hence the reaction was muted i.e. gbp/usd fell by 10-15 pips. There was just no momentum left anymore for it to continue its downward trend.

Had the ISM #s come out worse than expected, you would have seen a 70-80 pip spike upwards in gbp/usd. The amount that a currency deviates depends on where the level is pre-report. For e.g. .. even before the nfp.. gbp/usd jumped up by 40 pips, so i knew that when the actual report comes out, and if the # is bad, it can only rise by about 20-30 more pips.. and then it will come down.. so I faded the spike.

lagunacat

Feb 6, 2007, 10:16 PM

MP, I stumbled across this site doing a Google search for 'Mac and Forex'. I have been reading your posts for a couple days now and have been very captivated. Few weeks ago I decided to get into Forex and have been reading forums, blogs and bought one book (M. Archer). I have learned alot more from reading your posts than any of the other sources so I wanted to send props to you.

I am still reading your posts from August so have quite aways to go to see your progression in the last 6 months.

I am still playing with the Oanda game and not nearly ready to play with my hard earned cash.

Anyway, wanted to say thanks and looking forward to reading more...

Music_Producer

Feb 6, 2007, 11:08 PM

You're welcome Lagunacat :) Keep playing with that game account till you see some solid gains!

Nathan, i just noticed that gbp/usd went back to 1.9700 + today (went to 1.9715) GBP wants to touch 2.00, but that would create an outcry.. kinda like a Brit 'invasion' :p

lagunacat

Feb 6, 2007, 11:41 PM

You're welcome Lagunacat :) Keep playing with that game account till you see some solid gains!

I actually just started playing today, conservatively, put in reasonable stop/loss on 3 different buys. Closed one out after an hour, made $25. Watched another Eur/jpy until I made 21 pips and still watching a 5 pip gain on Eur/usd. So enjoying this so far.

I do have a couple questions. What is the margin that is set on this game or where do I find that?

Also, I read an earlier post that you said a PC isn't needed for running the news service? What is Parallels?

I have never used a PC and have gotten by with Virtual PC all these years. As you know it is painfully slow so I need to upgrade when I decide to play for real. My current Mac is not Intel. I have been waiting for Leopard before I upgrade.

Last thing, have you kept up your great record with no losses (like i said i am still reading Aug. posts)?

lagunacat

Feb 7, 2007, 11:12 AM

I am having issues with my preferred browser Firefox. When I try to use any of the drop down menus, ie: time intervals ( 5 sec ) , close price, etc., all of my windows associated with the game (including the main game window) collapse into the Dock. When I tried in Safari it causes Safari to crash.

Anybody else have these issues? I really DON'T want to use IE or Netscape.

nhallmark

Feb 7, 2007, 04:23 PM

Hi lagunacat,

How old is your Mac?

Oanda runs on java, so maybe try installing the latest version from sun, or search for it on apple's site.

If you've already done this, sorry.

lagunacat

Feb 7, 2007, 06:09 PM

Hi lagunacat,

How old is your Mac?

Oanda runs on java, so maybe try installing the latest version from sun, or search for it on apple's site.

If you've already done this, sorry.

I am running Panther on an Imac. The Oanda game runs fine except for the drop down menus (in Firefox). I have managed to get the drop downs to work in Safari but I really hate using that browser.

nhallmark

Feb 7, 2007, 09:51 PM

...I would say, try camino but its based on the firefox engine.

You could try opera...

http://www.opera.com/download/?platform=mac

Ive never used it, but some people swear by it.

Other than that, Im out of ideas. Maybe contact oanda and ask them?

Music_Producer

Feb 7, 2007, 10:13 PM

Laguna.. maybe its panther.. safari on my mac (tiger.. macintel) works great with oanda.. drop down menus, etc. Firefox is a little annoying .. it minimizes all the time, just like it happens to you.

Parallels is like virtual pc, except.. much much better! Windows xp on parallels runs faster than windows on my pc. Upgrade to an intel mac as fast as you can :p

So far, no, i have not had any losses.. ever since I have started trading sensibly. i.e if I miss a trade.. I don't go crazy and enter anyway.. I just let it go. I know there will be another opportunity. Once there was a platform crash, and my trade had already been executed. Well I recouped my losses by carrying out a few trades within a few minutes.

Made a profit of 14 pips on the NZD/USD trade today (1.45 pm PST) and 10 pips (I entered a little late) on the AUD/USD trade (4.30 pm PST)

Music_Producer

Feb 8, 2007, 07:06 AM

13 pips on the UK interest rate statement.. they kept the rates the same. They carried out a surprise rate hike last time, so it was certain that they wouldn't do anything to the rates this time.. but still, apparently the markets were expecting a rate hike. Oops, as i type this.. it just fell by 15 more pips.

Euro interest rate statement is next. I have a weird feeling about this one, maybe they might hike it. No fundamental reason really.. but i just feel that their current 3.5% rate seems to be too low. They should hike to 3.75 to attract more investors. If they keep the rates unchanged, then it will be a no-trade as the ECB never really surprises when it comes to rate decisions.

lagunacat

Feb 8, 2007, 11:51 AM

Laguna.. maybe its panther.. safari on my mac (tiger.. macintel) works great with oanda.. drop down menus, etc. Firefox is a little annoying .. it minimizes all the time, just like it happens to you.

Parallels is like virtual pc, except.. much much better! Windows xp on parallels runs faster than windows on my pc. Upgrade to an intel mac as fast as you can :p

Made a profit of 14 pips on the NZD/USD trade today (1.45 pm PST) and 10 pips (I entered a little late) on the AUD/USD trade (4.30 pm PST)

MP,
I've managed to get Safari to work properly (little Oanda tech help).
I don't plan on getting the new Intel until Leopard comes out (couple months I think) which is fine because I am not planning on going live before that. I am up $1400 on my game now after 3 days:)

I noticed you posted the time you traded the NZD/USD, is that the time to watch that pair? I remember seeing a chart which showed times for trading certain currency pairs, do you use that?

Also, I read a few pages back in this thread that you stopped using Oanda. Who do you use now? Where are you in CA? I am in the Monterey area. Thanks for your help!:apple:

~Shard~

Feb 8, 2007, 05:53 PM

Hi ~Shard~ :)

Hi. ;)

Shard, let us know how the tech analysis stuff goes.. and what method works. There are so many systems out there, and every time I see a chart loaded with indicators I just want to close it :p

Will do - I'm in the middle of backtesting a couple methods right now. As I said, I've had some success with them in the stock market world, so I'm trying to see if they are applicable in the forex world. It will be interesting to see, as my methods are usually longer term, using daily results (highs/lows/candlesticks) as data over a 1-4 month period. As a result, I think that approach is a good thing, since it isn't a "day trading" method (since things can move so much on an intraday basis and is hence unreliable due to fundamentals) and as a result of this, "huge" swings due to actual news releases have a somewhat more minimal impact on the overall chart when looking at it over several months, thus providing a bit of relaibility to the method.

Back to the "lab" for now though... I'll return next week... :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 9, 2007, 07:12 AM

Sneak out of your lab sometimes and give us a friendly hello sometimes Shard :p

I lost 14 pips today on the GBP trade balance report :mad: The news came out bad for the GBP/USD (didn't deviate by that much) and I sold rightaway.. it did drop by 6 pips.. but all of a sudden it shot up by a couple of pips. Usually I'm very quick but this one was a surprise.. I expected it to go down 20-25 pips.

Anyway, I think there must have been a couple of stops placed at that level, so the banks tried to prevent the gbp from falling. I exited the trade with a 14 pip loss thinking I didn't want to risk it.. and then the bloody thing fell down.. gradually.. by about 50 pips. Had i been a little more patient (like even a second) I would have made a nice profit.. oh well.

Now, the exciting part. A whopping 55 pips on the USD/CAD trade :D Canadian employment report came out way better than expected, I love the deviation - it was huge. Expected number was 25 k, came out at 89k. So I recouped my gbp loss and made up by more than enough pips.

I'm pretty glad that I got out of the GBP trade (even though i made a loss) because there is no telling what could have happened. It could have gone up by 20 more pips.. and I would have lost 34 pips in all. A small loss doesn't make me upset, because I know I can always recover, and make profits on more reports.

Next week, there are a ton of reports.. should be fun. Have a good weekend guys! :)

Music_Producer

Feb 9, 2007, 07:21 AM

MP,
I noticed you posted the time you traded the NZD/USD, is that the time to watch that pair? I remember seeing a chart which showed times for trading certain currency pairs, do you use that?

Also, I read a few pages back in this thread that you stopped using Oanda. Who do you use now? Where are you in CA? I am in the Monterey area. Thanks for your help!:apple:

No lagunacat, I don't trade technicals.. or looking at the charts. That was the time that the New Zealand Unemployment Report came out. I only trade news reports.. I do not trade on 'peaks' and 'bottoms' I look at the economic calendar (available on most forex sites) and see what the important reports are going to be - what day they come out, and what time. I get ready to trade those accordingly.

Don't get me wrong. Traders make a living by trading technicals.. but that's just not my style. I am good at rapid executions, so I trade the news.. and I'm a complete moron when it comes to technicals. Well, not a moron.. but I guess I'm just not lucky.. and I don't have the patience to hold on to a position for a couple of days. I need instant gratification :D $800-$4000 in 3-5 seconds is what drives me :p

I'm in the high desert, near Victorville.. I want to move further away from the coast though (or rather the San Andreas fault which is like 10 minutes away!) I'm petrified of earthquakes :o

You might do well on a game account but remember that it's a completely different ball game when you're trading with real money. You get a lot more involved, tense.. impatient.. etc. with a real account. That leads to mistakes.. so as long as you trade smart and have a solid strategy (whatever method you are working with, or 'gut feeling') you should do good. Losses always exist, but make sure those don't exceed your profits.. obviously.. by following a few simple trading rules.

I used Oanda today for the USD/CAD trade.. the spread was only 8 pips. I use CMC most of the time, but they give me re-quotes most of the time, so I use them only for very important reports and Oanda for everything else.

lagunacat

Feb 9, 2007, 10:25 AM

You might do well on a game account but remember that it's a completely different ball game when you're trading with real money. You get a lot more involved, tense.. impatient.. etc. with a real account. That leads to mistakes.. so as long as you trade smart

MP, I am well aware that paper trading is not the same as real trading, that is why I have no intention of going 'live' until I feel some what confident. I am the first one to admit I have a lot to learn.

Also on the issue of Firefox windows minimizing, I got this tech advice from Oanda

'Since our last correspondence I've learned that this is a known issue with Firefox on Mac. We have filled a bug report tot he Mozilla Foundation who develops Firefox and have recently heard backfrom them.

The problem lies in a component called Java EmbeddingPlugin (JEP). You can check what version of JEP is currently bundledwith Firefox by typing "about:plugins" (without quotes) in the URL bar.

Versionsprior to 0.9.6 are affected by this minimizing problem. The MozillaFoundation has confirmed that JEP0.9.6 will be bundled with Firefox2.0.0.2. Until this release, you have with 2 options. You can either:

1.download JEP 0.9.6 separately and follow the installation instructionsin the Readme.txt file (we've done it and it works, but we don'trecommend it to clients who are not used to tweak their computer):
http://downloads.sourceforge.net/javaplugin/JavaEmbeddingPlugin0.9.6.zip

2. temporarily use our FXDesktop version of FXTrade:
https://fx1.oanda.com/java/fxdesktop/index.shtml ' (end Oanda)

Ok, I downloaded the updated plugin but got lost during instructions with the timestamp thing. I felt the instructions were incomplete. Possible someone from this forum (and more tech savvy than me) can figure it out.

nhallmark

Feb 10, 2007, 09:30 PM

Uh...I haven't posted for a few days because I was looking at a thread on forexfactory about taxes and I found out a lot of stuff I didn't know.

Supposedly, income tax is illegal but it gets a lot deeper than that. According to a video I watched the US, Canada, and Mexico will be one country by 2010.

Here's the video...

http://video.stumbleupon.com/#p=7m377tk3cl

Its 2 hours long so I understand if you don't watch it, but if you do, what do you guys think about that?

I know its off topic, but I had no idea about the central banks. And, my thinking is that if there is a world government, there is no more forex because everyone uses one currency.

And then it goes on and on about the microchips,etc and Ive just been in a state of denial, confusion, and shock over the past few days.

In other news, I lost 30 pips on the AUD employment change, but then I made that back, and my money from NFP and $75 from the UK trade balance:D

Nathan

P.S. Im usually not all fanatical about all the conspiracy theories but the peices seem to fit together too perfectly with this.

yuhu

Feb 12, 2007, 04:26 PM

Now, the exciting part. A whopping 55 pips on the USD/CAD trade :D C

I traded GBP/USD on that and got 34 pips. This is my first major win. :)

MP, You said this week is gonna be a good week with lots of news, some of them are GBP news which comes out at 4.30am.. I dont think i am gonna wake up at 4.30am..

Will you be awake?
Is there any place else that we can see the calendar for other countries,, other than yahoo and forexfactory?

Nathan, i didnt watch the video, but the sound of it is really creepy... personally, i dont think there is any way that USA, Canada and Mexico are gonna be one country within 3 years. -No way-

Good luck everyone for this week's trading

Music_Producer

Feb 13, 2007, 06:39 AM

Hey guys, back.. had a busy weekend and day with my wife's sister's wedding.. I don't know how I'm staying up right now to trade! I couldn't trade the GBP/USD today (CPI report) Missed a nice 58 pip profit because of a re-quote :mad: :mad: Let's see how the US trade balance comes out.

Nathan, I don't think the 3 countries will merge.. no way.. but I do have a feeling that their currencies might become a single currency, apparently termed the 'Amero' :p Lol.. I don't know why everyone has to copy the 'Euro' or whatever, but it doesn't matter if the currencies do converge. There will never be a single world currency anyway, no chance of that happening.

Yuhu, I stay up all night till about 6-7 am PST anyway, so I can trade. I then sleep till 2 pm or so.. sometimes it does get a bit tiring, but on the weekends you will usually see me sleeping all day. :)

~Shard~

Feb 13, 2007, 07:24 AM

Urgh, got up in the middle of the night only to get a requote! :( Ah well, at least it's proof that I'm getting faster. ;)

Let's see how the trade data comes out. If US #s are down and CAD #s are up it should be a good trade on the USDCAD... :cool:

leetz

Feb 13, 2007, 04:34 PM

First of all I would like to thank Music Producer for being so generous and sharing his wisdom and strategies with everyone. I have read about 30 pages of this thread for about 2 weeks now. It inspired me to start trading again, I quit last summer for lack of time with summer school. I was doing a different type of trading then this I was using charts and various other methods. I would like to try this out :)

Watched the Trade Balance today and only saw about a 14 pip difference from when the news went out. It settled back down to about what it was before the news broke out at about 8:46. Did anyone else experience this or was I just not watching it closely enough? Any reason why there was such little pip movement? Also if you don't mind...music producer.... on the forexfactory calendar what events do u usually trade? Mostly the red stuff or orange or will you do whatever you think is important just from personal experience? Thanks again for all your help. And also with all these news items do u trade it against the USD always?

~Shard~

Feb 13, 2007, 10:13 PM

Traded the USD/CAD on the trade balance report, made 8 pips. UK employment #s are this morning followed by US and UK retail sales. It's definitely a busy week!

plowcow

Feb 14, 2007, 12:15 AM

hey people, I started following this thread a while ago and learned a lot--although to this day I never trade the news, but if and when I do, I'll know how ;)-- but yeah like I said I learned a lot and music_producer especially has been helpful to me so I felt like I wanna give a little something back.

I'm a technical trader unlike all of you so I trade based on what the graphs look like and different indicators. Two main elements to technical analysis: trend and support/resistance. Anyways I'm planning to pop in every once in a while with some input when I see something interesting going on

Feb 14 plowcow's analysis:

USD/JPY

the yen's been in a huuuge range lately and since ranges are easy to trade, could be a big profit opportunity for easy money (sell at the top, buy at the bottom)

right now its heading to the bottom of the range--the best thing that can happen is sometime this week it will hit 120.00--this level is a crucial support area since price bounced off of it previously and since it is a psychological support (round numbers act as support/resistance)

TRADE PLAN: wait for price to hit exactly 120.00, then go all in and BUY, max out your margin but MAKE SURE to put a 5-10 pip stop loss

Music_Producer

Feb 14, 2007, 08:43 AM

You're welcome Leetz.. not all the 'red' marked reports on forexfactory are capable of making currencies move. For e.g. today, gbp/usd claimant count change.. although it came out at -31,000.. which was a huge deviation.. the move was only 11-12 pips, I managed to squeeze out 4 pips.

This was obviously because the markets were waiting for the Bank of England's inflation report, which came out an hour later. I made a good 17 pips on that one, as initially the report stated that inflation risks are low.. so the pound dropped quite a bit.. but then there were statements made that a low CPI does not necessarily mean that rates will not be hiked. That came out, and the gbp shot up 50 pips.

US retail sales.. I managed to get only 8 pips, as the report came out at 0.3% .. not really a deviation from the forecast of 0.4% Still, it was kinda bad news for the us dollar, plus gbp was strong anyway.. so gbp/usd is up at 1.9570 right now.

When you see muted moves, its usually due to a small deviation, or an insignificant report.. or, sometimes.. the currency has moved so much, that it is not possible for it to move by a wider range. For e.g. if a report is due at 2.30 am, and at 2.25 am.. gbp/usd shoots up by 40-50 pips due to whatever reason.. and the news comes at 2.30 am which is gbp positive.. the gbp/usd will only spike up maybe 10-15 pips more (because of the earlier 40-50 pip move)

On the other hand, something quite the opposite may occur. I remember when there were rumors that NFP report was going to be terrible. So 15 minutes before the report.. GBP/USD kept going up and up. by almost 50-60 pips. When the NFP report did come out, it was quite strong.. beat all the rumors.. and the gbp/usd fell by a massive 80 pips.

Yes, everything is paired to the USD.. when you see something like EUR/JPY its a cross pair.. i.e. its EUr/USD + USD/JPY.

Additionally, I do not trade when there is more than one important report coming out. Conflicts can really mess up a trade i.e. the currency can spike up for two seconds.. and then go all the way down.

Next trade I'm looking at is the NZD retail sales.. I'll be trading the NZD/USD for that. It should be a nice trade as there are no other reports around that time, hopefully the report deviates quite a bit for a nice 20-30 pip move.

~Shard~

Feb 14, 2007, 07:34 PM

Made 4 pips on the US retail sales this morning and just made 12 pips on the Japanese GDP. Up next, UK retail sales, then lots of US data tomorrow... should be a good day...

Oh, and I'm almost done testing my MACD technical strategy. Hindsight is always 20/20, but some of the results are quite successful and consistent. I'll post some info on it in the next couple of days. I almost feel obligated to test it out myself though first... :o

nhallmark

Feb 14, 2007, 07:35 PM

made 5 pips on JPY GDP. I decided to play it safe and trade USD/JPY so it moved about 40 pips, where as GBP/JPY dropped 100 pips :eek: ...the spread is 8 pips though(which obviously didnt matter this time)

~Shard~

Feb 14, 2007, 07:43 PM

Nice one nhallmark! Yeah, the 3 pip fixed spread with CMC helped me out on this trade. ;) :)

Does anyone know why the GBP pairs have a higher Beta than other pairs? It always seems like GBP/USD moves more than EUR/USD, and now the same with GBP/JPY vs USD/JPY... interesting...

Music_Producer

Feb 14, 2007, 11:17 PM

Oh crap, I completely missed out on the JPY GDP trade! I just forgot about it.. and that was one heck of a mover too! When I got back home from lunch I read you guys talking about it, and I was confused.. wondering where that came from :p

Yeah Shard, for some reason GBP does move a lot more than the other currencies. Hence, I switched from eur/usd to gbp/usd quite some time back. I am not sure why.. maybe the Brits get a little too excited over all this :D

~Shard~

Feb 14, 2007, 11:22 PM

Oh crap, I completely missed out on the JPY GDP trade! I just forgot about it.. and that was one heck of a mover too! When I got back home from lunch I read you guys talking about it, and I was confused.. wondering where that came from :p

Ah, don't worry about it, that's the beauty of forex trading - there'll always be another trade... ;)

Yeah Shard, for some reason GBP does move a lot more than the other currencies. Hence, I switched from eur/usd to gbp/usd quite some time back. I am not sure why.. maybe the Brits get a little too excited over all this :D

Hey, as long as it's consistent I don't have a problem with that!

Oh, and I'm entering 3 pretend trades tonight based on my MACD technical strategy. I'll see if I get stopped out or if I'm right, and if it's the latter, I will do a little write-up on my method. If not, well, back to the drawing board... :o ;) Regardless, I'll always have the news to trade (i.e. the facts and fundamentals) so it's all good. :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 15, 2007, 04:36 AM

Music_Producer

Feb 15, 2007, 08:42 AM

Hopefully no one got caught in the whipsaw.. I just made a pip on the gbp/usd trade right now (empire manufacturing) The gbp dipped for maybe 2-3 seconds.. by the time i got out it spiked back up so i only got out with a pip instead of 5.. apparently the unemployment report took everyone by surprise. 315 k was expected.. but it jumped to 357.. the highest since november.

Again, this shows that a 'significant' report like the empire manufacturing can be overshadowed by a higher deviation in a less significant report. Hence, its best to trade single reports.. not when there are too many coming out at the same time.

~Shard~

Feb 15, 2007, 08:44 AM

45 pips on the UK Retail sales report :D I love reports like these.. deviated by a big number.. came out at -1.2%. The GBP/USD kept dropping.. right now about 30 more pips after I got out.. will it go to 1.9500? Possible, but not likely.. but the way its dropping.. geez.. almost 100 pips. Retail sales sure is a powerful report! (also because it deviated by a big number)

Next up are the US reports, better get some sleep till then!

Nice one! Unfortunately I elected to sleep this morning instead of trade. ;) I had got up the previous two mornings and wanted a good night's sleep today, even though I knew the report was coming out. There's always another trade though!

Was all ready to trade the US data this morning however it seemed too conflicting, as things didn't move that much. I'll be ready to trade the TIC report though in 15 minutes, then the data 15 minutes after that, then the data 45 minutes after that, then... ;) :D

Music_Producer

Feb 15, 2007, 09:03 AM

16 pips on the TIC report.. relatively easy. Just one more left before heading to bed :D

Edit : I have a feeling its all bad news for USD today

~Shard~

Feb 15, 2007, 09:04 AM

Just traded the TIC Report. Made 5 pips on the EURUSD from 1.3146 to 1.3151. Got out before it corrected. :D The reason I didn't trade GBPUSD was because I had the BUY window ready on the EURUSD pair and the SELL ready on the GBPUSD so I could react either way as quickly as possible. ;) :cool:

Industrial production is next...

~Shard~

Feb 15, 2007, 09:17 AM

Only 6 pips on the Industrial Production numbers. I got in a little late and since the USD has been weakening all morning I didn't know how much further it would slide, so I just wanted to take my modest profit and run. ;) As you say Music_Prodcuer, looks like a bad day for the US... good day for us though... ;) :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 15, 2007, 09:18 AM

4 pips.. CMC's re-quotes (while closing a trade) are driving me insane.. I lost 6 pips because of the lag.. and then 8 pips during the TIC report. A little concerned about that, it can easily turn a potential profit in a loss.. did you get any re-quotes shard?

~Shard~

Feb 15, 2007, 09:23 AM

Music_Producer

Feb 15, 2007, 09:33 AM

~Shard~

Feb 15, 2007, 09:39 AM

Shard, how do you close a trade? For e.g. if you buy gbp/usd.. once its executed.. you click 'new' and then hit 'sell' right?

The manual states to right click on the executed order and close it.. but when I tried that a couple of times, it never seemed to work. :confused:

Never tried the right-click method actually... But yes, I just click NEW and BUY/SELL as quick as I can... I've experienced requotes as well but I've been lucky today so far.

Mr. Bernanke speaks in about 20 minutes and then the Philly Index report comes out about 2 hours afterwards. There's definitely potential for a few more pips today... :)

nhallmark

Feb 15, 2007, 08:24 PM

Yeah..same thing happened to me, Music_Producer. I was up 10-12 pips and I went to close...it gave me a requote and I closed for -6 pips:mad:

I should have cancelled the requote because it went back up and kept going after I closed. oh well.

Is anyone trading German CPI or French Nonfarm tonight? I dont know whether to stay up or not..

~Shard~

Feb 16, 2007, 12:07 AM

Is anyone trading German CPI or French Nonfarm tonight? I dont know whether to stay up or not..

I had a full trading day so I'm sleeping tonight. If I wake up for some reason around the right time, sure, maybe I'll pop on and see if there's a trade but that's very unlikely. ;) I'll definitely be trading PPI, BPs etc. tomorrow morning though. :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 16, 2007, 01:04 AM

~Shard~

Feb 16, 2007, 01:34 PM

Nathan, I'm not trading anything today. The eur reports I have no clue if they move the markets.. but generally they don't. As for US PPI, I would have traded it but there are a couple of other reports coming out at the same time (housing starts) and I am afraid that if there is a huge conflict, you will see nothing but whipsaws.

If you are trading, trade with a small lot.. of course I could be wrong and you could see a move of a lot of pips, but I'd rather be safe than sorry.

Yeah, I didn't trade either for the exact reasons you listed Music_Producer. I made my pips for the week so I'm happy. ;)

As for my technical analysis methods, my MACD values need some fine tuning, so I'll be working on that this weekend. Based on some backtesting though there does seem to be a bit of consistency and potentiall, but not enough yet for my liking. I'll let you guys know when I have something ready for you to review and offer input on. :cool:

nhallmark

Feb 16, 2007, 05:44 PM

didnt trade PPI..came out as expected.

ok...Ive got another question. Supposedly, the BOJ rate decision is next week(Its not on the FF calendar, but thats what Ive heard).

Ive learned that normally, if a central bank raises rates, the currency gets stronger...and if they cut rates, it gets weaker.

But it seems a lot of people carry trade against the yen, so if they were to raise rates...would it go up or down?

Im thinking it would go like any other rate decision...for the initial spike.

But then the yen would get weaker because the yen gained quite a bit this week(GBP/JPY dropped 600 pips:eek: ) which could be from everyone liquidating their carry trades for the rate decision...then, whether they raise rates or not, everyone piles back in to their carry trades in the days after the announcement.

Im not going to trade based on anything I just said, Im just trying to see if I understand whats going on.

Any thoughts?

Also, most of the JPY pairs have been in an uptrend for quite awhile, which is another reason for it to pick back up and also because all the central banks seem to want the yen weak for the global economy.

Again, Im not trading on that, I just dont want to get screwed next week if they do raise rates and I sell GBP/JPY or AUD/JPY and then everyone piles back in to their carry trades.

~Shard~

Feb 16, 2007, 08:11 PM

nhallmark, it's really too tough to say. Yes, in theory, if a country raises its interest rates it makes the currency more attractive and it should rise. But, if it's really expected, then perhaps the upside has already been factored in and built into the price prior to the announcement, resulting in not much of a move. Or, perhaps other economic factors will inhibit an upward move. As I said, tough to say.

In the case of the Yen specifically, there are a couple of factors which are possibly going to keep the JPY soft even should the BoJ hike rates next week (the announcement is the 21st btw). Relative yield spreads will remain significantly against the Yen while the BoJ is holding yields down by continuing its GBP buying, despite ending quantitative easing. We'll just have to wait and see... :cool:

~Shard~

Feb 16, 2007, 08:26 PM

I've also developed a couple interesting theories when trying to investigate and prove out some of the technical trading techniques I'm currently looking at.

Basically, the news traders and the technical traders have just as much "power" as each other. There are people who trade specifically on technicals and charts whom (rightly or wrongly) impact the market just as much (if not more than!) the news traders who are trading on fact. It's somewhat ironic in a way, but it appears to be true. For instance, a NFP report could come out with a huge negative surprise, however once all the news traders jump on board trying to short on the news, a (possibly even larger) group of technical traders will move the markets themselves by executing BUY orders once a certain resistance level it met, RSI becomes stupidly oversold, a MA is crossed, etc. - and then the pair will skyrocket upwards, even though, solely based on the facts and "logic" it shouldn't due to the bad news.

I guess what I'm getting at is that some people who only trade the news sometimes perhaps look down at technical traders, calling them "noise traders" and saying that their methods aren't valid, as they are not taking into account actual events and fundamentals. But in the end (again rightly or wrongly) it doesn't matter, and you have to keep in mind what the technical traders are doing as well, or else you might find yourself executing, what is in your mind, the proper trade on a news item, only to find the pair swing the other way and hand you a loss. Shorting a pair on a bad report? Well, when it drops and hits a key support trend line and automatically generates a ton of BUY orders, look out! ;)

I guess a good parallel might be the carry trade, i.e. a pair held artificially high at times due to what it represents, as opposed to what pure economic factors and news may or may not report.

Just some thoughts. I'd appreciate any feedback. :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 17, 2007, 06:07 AM

I would tend to agree with about 50% of what you mention Shard. First of all, I don't think any news trader looks down upon technical traders.. in fact, technical trading is less stressful than news trading. Not to mention - all the risk factors associated with news trading such as re-quotes, delayed executions, whipsaws, etc.

With any currency, there are resistance levels because of the stops placed by the various banks who are in active trades. To prevent the currency level from hitting that stop.. the related banks would buy/sell .. whatever necessary to avoid losses.

I look at any currency movement after the news this way -

When the news comes out +ve, the currency jumps up.. and after a few seconds.. it comes down again (if the report has not deviated by that much) I think that can be attributed to simple profit taking. You have all the traders buying when the news comes out.. and they all take their profits in 3-4 seconds.. so you will obviously see the level drop.

On the other hand, yes.. when stops are involved.. for e.g. if gbp/usd is 1.9630.. and GBP+ve news comes out.. and GBP/USD jumps to 1.9690.. you can be sure that if it hits 1.9700 it will be met by a lot of resistance.. simply due to the massive stops probably placed at that level.. it's a psychological factor really. When it hits 1.9700 I would short it, expecting it to dip down to 1.9680-1.9660 or so. This happens because:

1. All the news traders start taking their profits *and*
2. The banks who have placed stops at 1.9700 get in and start shorting GBP/USD to prevent that stop from being hit.

Now obviously it's a battle between these two groups.. once 1.9700 gets broken (if the news is super positive for e.g. an unexpected rate hike) then 1.9750 would be the next level (or whatever resistance levels that can be calculated)

I've seen tons of technical traders look down upon news traders because.. news traders cause all the spikes! If you see plowcow mention in an earlier post regarding the USD/JPY .. he mentioned that when it hits 120.. it should go back up. Why? Because its a massive resistance level.. common sense. However, if any news that is terrible for the USD comes out.. then no resistance is a match for it. As a result USD/JPY touched 119.00 (not at once, but pretty fast)

Let's say I wasn't fast enough to get in on the news spikes. How would I trade then? Probably by placing orders at the resistance levels, like you mentioned Shard. If gbp/usd is 1.9640.. I would place a short at 1.9700 (pre-news) and a buy at 1.9600. Whatever hits, I can be sure to make a few pips profit (hopefully)

But sometimes, mind you.. a news report can come out that can make a currency plunge by 800 pips in 24 hours. You'll keep buying at all resistance levels.. and you'll keep getting screwed. So all the technical stuff goes out the window in face of such strong news.

Hence in my opinion, I would suggest - why not trade both ways? A smart trader should trade news *and* technicals. Place orders at the resistance levels, and trade the news as well. Eventually it depends which one suits you the best.. for me, news trading suits me as I have absolutely no patience to watch a currency move to a certain level. I need to get in, and get out. I'm not the types to hold on to a trade.. I can't even see a 1-5 pip loss.. I get heartburn :p

Nathan:-

I don't know about these JPY interest rate trades.. because they never come out any fixed time. So if you are looking to trade the actual news report.. I suggest you don't. I've watched it before and never liked it.

The carry trades should continue strong - japan is expected to hold its interest rates steady. If they do surprise everyone by raising them.. you should see all the JPY pairs drop by quite a bit.. who knows.. 300-600 pips maybe. But its in japan's best interests to keep their currency levels low. Additionally, their inflation data never showed any risk of inflation in the first place.. so they have no need really to hike rates. In fact, the inflation is dipping.. so they might actually *reduce* the rates back.. (not so soon obviously.. it depends on future inflation reports)

~Shard~

Feb 17, 2007, 10:23 AM

Thanks for the thoughts Music_Prodcuer, I agree with what you've said. I've always thought you need to be aware of both sides of he "trading fence" (technical and fundamental) but in the end, as you state, you have to do what's right for you, and more importantly, what you're good at! As you say, with trading the news, you can get in, get out, take your pips and leave. There is no need to open a long term position and worry how it might move, if news will adversely affect it, or if it dips and you end up having to carry it for days with not only a significant paper loss but also financing to deal with.

Trading the news wrt forex is obviously how I started (thanks to this thread and you!) :)) and is probably how I will continue for the most part, however if I can have some success in trading the technicals as well, hey, why not! ;) To that end, I'm going to continue playing around and seeing if I can find some consistency in some of my strategies. Once I have something worth sharing (i.e. that won't be a waste of time for you guys to review :o) I'll definitely post it.

Once again, thanks for the feedback, I think you're pretty much on the money (pardon the pun) with your thoughts. :cool:

Apemanblues

Feb 18, 2007, 06:54 AM

No. That Australian beer sucks.

~Shard~

Feb 18, 2007, 11:34 AM

No. That Australian beer sucks.

That joke would be funny if it hadn't already been made countless times in this thread by other one-time posters. Thanks for coming out though. :p :cool:

PiP Dicatator

Feb 18, 2007, 11:46 AM

I just bought a brand new Mac and a brand new PC and guess what I bought it for?

That's right..... Forex trading, I went for a 2 monitor display set-up, anyway imagine my surprise when I sign up to a Mac forum and I find a conversation about Forex.

I think I am going to like this forum. Anyway I am a full time trader and have been for 4 years. So if anybody has any questions feel free to ask. I also got a few good systems I am trying out if anybody is interested I can share those.

Now onto other business I spelt my nickname wrong it should be PiP Dictator not Dicatator is there any way to change it?

:eek:

P.S. I am from Australia and NO COUNTRY IN THE WORLD MAKES A BETTER BEER THAN........ Germany (Though I was going to say Australia didn't you?)

Apemanblues

Feb 18, 2007, 11:47 AM

That joke would be funny if it hadn't already been made countless times in this thread by other one-time posters. Thanks for coming out though. :p :cool:

Damn.

Maybe I should really read through threads.......

Naaaaaaaaah. Never in a million years.

~Shard~

Feb 18, 2007, 02:55 PM

Welcome to our thread PIP Dictator! Please read through things when you have a spare hour or two ;) and let us know your thoughts. And obviously any insight, tips, strategies etc. you can share with us would be most welcome. :)

Now onto other business I spelt my nickname wrong it should be PiP Dictator not Dicatator is there any way to change it?

PM a Mod and indicate that you made a simple spelling mistake. Since you just signed up they shouldn't have a problem changing it for you. Drop my name if necessary. :cool: Oh, and it's a good idea to participate in a lot of the main threads as well - the Mods don't like it sometimes when someone signs on just to participate in one "off-topic" thread such as this one. As long as you contribute to the other actual Mac-related threads as well, it'll all be good. ;) :)

Damn.

Maybe I should really read through threads.......

Naaaaaaaaah. Never in a million years.

Yeah, that would require far too much effort, right? :p ;)

PiP Dicatator

Feb 19, 2007, 06:48 AM

I haven't had time to look through the forum so i do know know if you guys are active traders but if you re you will have noticed that GBP/USD and GBP in general has dropped like a stone.

Here is why!

The move was caused due to the MPC report released by the BoE

Here is the culprit himself

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmtreasy/299/299weii.pdf

The actual comments that caused the bearish move are "GBP depreciation will probably be necessary"

Inflation fo the U.K is still high at the moment but it is at the lowest is has been for a long time. We could see possible rate cuts in the next 6 months.

We got the UK GDP coming out this week and the BoE minutes meeting which will be worth taking a look at.

Music_Producer

Feb 19, 2007, 08:15 AM

Oh yeah, these statements come out from time to time. Before the G7 summit.. there was talk about an agenda to discuss the weak yen.. and take possible action. So all the JPY pairs dropped. I bought AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY when they were low.. because it's a known fact that everyone always 'talks' about how a currency should be tweaked.. etc. When the actual G7 summit came.. there was no talk about the Yen.. as I expected.

It was just a chance for people to make some good profits on the carry trade.

PiP Dicatator

Feb 19, 2007, 01:40 PM

Well i pegegd that retrace got into GBP/USD for the up trend after that report it was apparent it would move up. Entered GBP/JPY also for a combined total of 400 pips today I can relax for the next 6 months lol...

By the way guys I am a pro trader don't throw money in if you do not know what you are doing. If you have any questions ask I am happy to share questions and trading systems.

nhallmark

Feb 20, 2007, 02:56 PM

Im not planning on trading the actual BOJ announcement, Im just trying to figure out the market psychology of it because sometimes its backwards.

For example, when inflation is higher, thats supposed to be bad, but the currency gets stronger because it means there is more chance of a rate hike, right?

So, like Shard said, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Well i pegegd that retrace got into GBP/USD for the up trend after that report it was apparent it would move up. Entered GBP/JPY also for a combined total of 400 pips today I can relax for the next 6 months lol...

By the way guys I am a pro trader don't throw money in if you do not know what you are doing. If you have any questions ask I am happy to share questions and trading systems.

Yeah, I got 72 pips on GBP/JPY on that ride up. I traded it with a very small lot though because I am just now learning about technicals and I wasnt really sure what I was doing.

If you want to share your system(s), Im all ears. Im just trying to learn anything and everything I can about it right now.:)

~Shard~

Feb 20, 2007, 05:18 PM

For example, when inflation is higher, thats supposed to be bad, but the currency gets stronger because it means there is more chance of a rate hike, right?

You have it half right. When inflation is high, this is bad for the economy in general as it means the banks need to raise interest rates to combat the inflation. However, if a country's intererst rates are higher, more people will be attraced to purchase its currency due to the higher interest rates. Look at the AUDJPY pair for instance - that's the whole principle behind the carry trade - the AUD is an attractive currency because you can invest and make 6.25% on it while only having to pay 0.25% to borrow yen against it. Good return there.

Too bad you couldn't buy Iceland's currency - I wouldn't mind sticking $100K in an Icelandic bank earning 11%/year or whatever their rate currently is! :eek: :) :D

If you want to share your system(s), Im all ears. Im just trying to learn anything and everything I can about it right now.:)

I agree - the more information that is shared and the more learning that goes is, the better for all of us. Please do take the time to share some of your insights and methods PIP Dictator, we're more than eager to learn. :cool:

Music_Producer

Feb 20, 2007, 10:50 PM

Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to 0.50% Big surprise.. I've exited all carry trades for now. Will look to get back in when jpy pairs still head downwards. Then again it depends what the BOJ chief says.. if he says this is it for the entire year then all jpy pairs will shoot back up.

~Shard~

Feb 20, 2007, 10:54 PM

Just shorted USDJPY and EURJPY - got in a little late (wanted to confirm the news) but still made 40 pips between the 2 of them! :D :cool:

nhallmark

Feb 21, 2007, 01:04 AM

I didn't trade the press reports because I thought the official report would matter more, but even with the 8-1 vote, it still shot up so I caught 40 pips on that.

So, for this week, Im up 110 pips. 100 pips was my goal for this month so Im happy:D

Music_Producer

Feb 21, 2007, 02:05 AM

Great going guys! Check out all the JPY pairs now.. they are back to the pre-report levels! This has to do with the speech that usually follows an interest rate decision. Apparently the BOJ has decided to keep rates low.. so all the carry traders jumped back in.

Personally I think the jpy pairs should fall quite a bit, then again maybe I could be wrong. I would like to see AUD/JPY fall to say 87-88.. GBP/JPY to 225.. and then I'll get back in.. just to be on the safe side.

gauchogolfer

Feb 21, 2007, 02:40 AM

I just wanted to pipe in and say that after reading the first ~10 pages of this thread and the last couple (to get up to date) I'm going to open a game account and give this a shot. Even though I don't like waking up early here on the west coast ;). I look forward to learning more from all of you, and would like to say thanks to CurrenSea and Music Producer for the great explanations about this trading.

Cheers!

PiP Dicatator

Feb 21, 2007, 02:57 AM

First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news.

My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt.

I will give some strategies later out soon.

Music_Producer

Feb 21, 2007, 05:45 AM

FXCM.. hmm .. they didn't even fill me in during non-news reports :rolleyes: I don't know how they're still in business.. they should have been shut down a long time ago.

Bagged 24 pips on the UK BOE minutes, next up US CPI. I'm still watching the JPY pairs and still can't believe they shot up that fast.. lol, it's too funny. All those carry traders just couldn't wait!

Music_Producer

Feb 21, 2007, 08:36 AM

nhallmark

Feb 21, 2007, 08:46 AM

I slept through the BoE minutes and I got a requote on US CPI:mad: ...Im still happy about last night though.

First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news.

My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt.

I will give some strategies later out soon.

Yeah, I looked at their site and they use MT4 which is great for techs but, from my experience(on a demo), it sucks for news.

There base spreads are also high...EUR/USD-5, GBP/USD-6, GBP/JPY-10. And that was their "best" under "normal maket conditions".

What's so great about them?

PiP Dicatator

Feb 21, 2007, 09:43 AM

They are great for news trading MetaTrader is a platform not a broker, brokers use the MetaTrader platform they just pay MetaTrader monthly.

although I trade 4 hour charts so 5 pip spread

GBP/USD = 3 pip spread

USD/CHF = 3 pip spread

EUR/USD = 2 pip spread

USD/CAD = 3 pip spread

GBP/JPY = 7 pip spread but this pair is usually 10 pips

The broker sues MetaTrader platform but the spread and execution are completely up to them.

lagunacat

Feb 21, 2007, 11:07 AM

Personally I think the jpy pairs should fall quite a bit, then again maybe I could be wrong. I would like to see AUD/JPY fall to say 87-88.. GBP/JPY to 225.. and then I'll get back in.. just to be on the safe side.

MP, how did you do with the JPY yesterday? I happened to be holding USD/JPY short when it dove around 7pm (pst) then was monitoring it a couple hours later when it shot up. I jumped in and did really well. I didn't have the advantage of the news like you-just dumb luck.

gauchogolfer

Feb 21, 2007, 11:33 AM

21 pips on the US CPI report (deviation was only 0.1%) Huge lot though, so I'm very satisfied right now :D

Hey gaucho.. where you been?! I see you hopping in and out from time to time :p If you can't fit the trading patterns in your schedule.. I recommend you trade news reports like Aussie/Kiwi ones. They usually come out at 4.30 pm PST - 7 pm PST. They're very limited unlike the UK and US reports but they do move really well. I know that I could do well if I just traded one AUD/USD report once a month.. (obviously with a massive lot) So look into that as well.

Thanks for the tip! I'm a true newbie at this, so I've just started my game account to get used to the mechanics of making trades, using the software, etc. Could you post the link again to the Yahoo business news page you use, which lists the upcoming news reports? I'm interested in doing some 'real-time' trades to see how fast of a trigger finger is necessary. :)

PiP Dicatator

Feb 21, 2007, 11:37 AM

guys you should replace your USD/JPY trades with GBP/JPY it moves more. With a good system and some fundamental analysis you can set a 20-40 pip stop loss and aim for 200 pips or more.

I entered a Long trade on Monday and have held it till now I am currently up over 350 pips. the stop loss was only 40 pips (40 pips is big for day trading but when we are talking swing trades it is very very small)

The best method I came buy in recent times was a method called the VanessaFX system it is written by a 20 something year old lady that has an account worth over one million.

http://rapidshare.com/files/11160233...ed_Systems.pdf

http://rapidshare.com/files/12281165...ed_Systems.pdf

http://www.yourfilelink.com/get.php?fid=264448

these are all the same files it was posted with multiple links in case one was down so I just threw them all up. It is a PDF file.

It is getting quite popular but beware just those indicator will cause you to fail you need to use it in conjunction with support/resistance lines and Candle stick patterns.

PiP Dicatator

Feb 21, 2007, 11:40 AM

On what Music said reports can be dangerous as they are prone to revisions and comments by the releaser. You wont be trading the number you will be trading traders interpretation of the number. Smarter option is to learn economics (not advanced just general) and learn technical analysis.

PiP Dicatator

Feb 21, 2007, 11:47 AM

Thanks for the tip! I'm a true newbie at this, so I've just started my game account to get used to the mechanics of making trades, using the software, etc. Could you post the link again to the Yahoo business news page you use, which lists the upcoming news reports? I'm interested in doing some 'real-time' trades to see how fast of a trigger finger is necessary. :)

Here is a better economic calendar than Yahoo, it is more detailed and they have colour coding for expected volatility. They also have good analysis they do not have any now because as far as i have heard they are in the middle of an upgrade but I asked the owner and he has assured me from next week onwards the analysis will be there.

It is a free service by the way.

http://www.forexclarity.com/calendar/

You may also consider paying for a news program that tells you release numbers within 1-2 second of the actual release. This allows for faster entries and a higher chance of success as you can see if any revisions or comments are made. I suggest trade the news for this since you are new and this is the cheapest but still very good.

They offer a one week trial so you can test it out if you like. I think the price for text is $40 per month.

www.tradethenews.com/

~Shard~

Feb 21, 2007, 12:18 PM

I recently found out that a friend of a coworker of my wife (let's see, yep, I got it right! :o ;) ) day trades forex professionally. He lives on a sailboat and sails the waters while sleeping in 4 hour increments in order to take advantage of the world markets - what a life! :D

At any rate, we've exchanged a few short e-mails back and forth so far, but one of his quotes stuck out in my mind, especially as I am investigating more and more technical analysis and charting wirth repsect to forex trading. I asked him if he focuses on technical or news trading, and when he said technical trading I asked, "But the technicals go out the window if a huge news item hits, right? How do you know what's going to happen?" To which he replied:

Show me the chart and I'll tell you the news.

Not that I necessarily believe that to be absolutely true, however I found that quite cool regardless... ;) :cool:

Anyway, made 5 pips on the CAD announcement - good enough for today. More trading tomorrow... :cool:

~Shard~

Feb 21, 2007, 12:20 PM

They offer a one week trial so you can test it out if you like. I think the price for text is $40 per month.

www.tradethenews.com/

I'm on the trial right now - highly recommend it. If only I could justify the $180/month audio service... :o ;)

PiP Dicatator

Feb 22, 2007, 05:25 AM

There is a good forum here www.forexclarity.com/forum

Anybody tried the system yet?

nhallmark

Feb 22, 2007, 05:32 AM

PiP Dictator, I'll be trying out those systems over the next few weeks. I can definitely see how it works.

Shard, thats cool about your friend's, friend's, friend :p . I notice how the news will just confirm the techs sometimes. I dont think its often enough to bet on it though.

My main issue with technicals is waiting. It annoys me to no end...which is probably why I news trade(that and the fact that news trading was the first thing I learned, courtesy of MP and Shard ;) )

I guess I can trade with techs on one account and it'll be "work", and then I can news trade on another account because news trading is still where all the fun is, at least for me :cool:

nhallmark

Feb 22, 2007, 05:38 AM

There is a good forum here www.forexclarity.com/forum

Anybody tried the system yet?

I guess we just posted at the same time. Anyway, yeah, it looks like, for the main system, there wont be another entry until next week.

On the intraday system, Im just waiting for an entry and I missed both at 1:30am(central) today b/c I was sleeping. Im starting a new sleep schedule though because Im realizing that all the moves are when Im normally asleep :rolleyes:

PiP Dicatator

Feb 22, 2007, 07:59 AM

In my opinion you should trade fundamentals along with technicals, beware of that system you should understand technical analysis before trading it.

A lot of the signals you shouldn't take there is a lot to it. When using the intra day system I take maybe 1 out of every 5 trades and when trading the 4 hour system I use fundamental analysis quite heavily if the fundamentals don't line up I do not enter.

If you want news there is a goof fundamental analysis newsletter on the same site as the forum I posted. There is a guy there that trades a few releases a week he write full reports on how to trade it and exactly what deviation to use. It looks like a lot of analysis goes into the thing, it is on a free trial at the moment if you sign up now you might still make it in but don't take my word for it. I like it it provides me with information that it would take me hours to find and there is also heaps more information.

Unfortunately anything good in thus business has a price on it but its pretty cheap so I don't mind the subscription.

I am going to post a scalping system tomorrow it is my own and it works on 1 min charts I use it when I am bored and waiting for a big move.

~Shard~

Feb 22, 2007, 08:36 AM

No trade this morning, US unemployment data came out with little deviation from estimates.

Thanks for posting that link PIP Dictator I'll definitely take a look at it. I am looking forward to reviewing your scalping method as well. For me it's all about learning and becoming a better trader, so I'll take whatever you have! Thanks again. :)

No more trading for me today though until later tonight. Have fun guys... :cool:

nhallmark

Feb 22, 2007, 10:42 AM

Just made 15 pips trading that intraday system :) 10 on EUR/USD and 5 on USD/CHF. I got out early on USD/CHF. I was playing it safe ;)

PiP Dicatator

Feb 22, 2007, 11:18 AM

good 15 pips is not bad at all 5 pips a day can make you a fortune.

If you look back last year in what I think was November the 4 hour system gave a signal on a 1000 pip move. The 24 year old good looking girl that wrote that system doubled her account on that trade. She trades over on million now. The guy that runs the site who I think is her boyfriend is supposedly an even better trader and he is 20.

You need to have some serious skill to double an account like that. I make a very good living from trading but her story is amazing.

Don't get a fantasy in your head that because they are young and successful it is easy. It is a rare breed that can claim that type of success in Forex and even though they are young I think between them they have 12 years experience.

I will throw up my scalping system later just going to refine it a little and remove the technical talk since you guys are for the most part fairly new.

nhallmark

Feb 22, 2007, 11:53 AM

good 15 pips is not bad at all 5 pips a day can make you a fortune.

Yeah, now I wish I would have held on...both of them broke out and I would be sitting at +70 pips right now. Im sure I'll get more of a feel for it after I get used to it.

I will throw up my scalping system later just going to refine it a little and remove the technical talk since you guys are for the most part fairly new.

Or, you could throw it up with the "technical talk" and we could ask questions...if you dont mind. :)

I understand support/resistance, fibs, and trend lines for the most part.

Beyond that, Im not sure.

Music_Producer

Feb 23, 2007, 04:42 AM

23 pips on the UK GDP report, and 5 pips on the Eur German ZEW sentiment report (exited too fast.. it dropped by a further 15 pips) More than enough for the day.. enjoy the weekend guys :)

~Shard~

Feb 23, 2007, 07:46 AM

Nice one Music_Producer! This morning I elected to sleep instead of trade. ;) :D

More trades next week - everyone have a great weekend! :)

nhallmark

Feb 23, 2007, 09:06 AM

I went back to sleep after the alarm went off..oh well. I made 125 pips this week so Im more than happy :D

PiP Dictator, are you still in that GBP/JPY trade from the beginning of this week?

alpharedecho

Feb 23, 2007, 02:45 PM

I just started trading the forex 2 years ago, with out much success. Just bought a system from www.progressivefx.com with the hopes of making some money.

So far I am even, but I have only owned it for 2 days. My long position on the USD/CHF has taken a beating, but it looks like it may rally! :)

Anyone here try this system before, I am curious about others success/failures with it.

nhallmark

Feb 23, 2007, 03:13 PM

alpharedecho, I would be cautious of paying money for a system. There are plenty of free systems on various forex forums.

The one PiP Dictator posted above is free and Ive already made 15 pips from it.

Also, this entire thread will give you a good education in forex and show you how to make money trading the news. Its all free.

Aside from that, have you looked into WHY USD/CHF has gone down? The answer to that question will probably help more than any system.

Meant only in kindness,
Nathan

~Shard~

Feb 23, 2007, 04:11 PM

Good advice nhallmark, you pretty much took the words out of my mouth. ;) :)

Music_Producer

Feb 23, 2007, 05:24 PM

protie

Feb 23, 2007, 05:37 PM

I agree MP, there is no system that will give you 100% success. Personally if I ever see a system where the author claims you will never lose and always profit with their system, I will be looking elsewhere :)

First of all I should share broker information do not sign up with forex.com or fxcm.com they will screw you over with stop hunting and locking you out during news.

My pick is http://www.fastbrokersfx.com/ they have an ok charting platform, fast execution, great entries on news and they don't seem like they stop hunt.

I will give some strategies later out soon.

PiP, I am glad I read your post. I was very close to opening an account with Forex.com. MP already warned me about fxcm, so I was avoiding them already. I have checked out fastbrokersfx.com and from what I have seen so far I am interested. I really liked Forex.com for their platform layout, but if you say stay clear of them, I will take your advice.
One thing, can someone explain to me what "Stop Hunting" is though?

Thanks to everyone for all the good advice here in this thread. It has been very helpful to me in preparing for live forex trading.

~Shard~

Feb 23, 2007, 06:29 PM

In my personal opinion.. *any* system will fail. I've read through all of them and they are nothing more than subtle variations of a main theme - i.e. support and resistance.. and macd, ema lines.

Additionally, another thing I've noticed is that the authors of such systems.. when they make these e-books or whatever, conveniently show trades which are successful.. and their entries/exits are almost always *before* the ema or macd lines cross

Sure, they might work.. but I doubt they work all the time. This is just a personal opinion, before you guys swallow me. Just looking out for your best interest. Trade technicals, but watch out for any report that can screw up your trade for good.

I totally agree - I would take any "system" with a grain of salt. Even when I have used technical analysis and charting in the past, it's been more of a "one of" situation, where I've seen a really low RSI or I've seen something specific and taken advantage of it - it has never been an indicator or "system" which I have tried to consistently follow.

I got into this whole forex trading again thanks to you Music_Producer and it has been due to the success I've had on trading the news - as a result, this will always be my primary method I think. That being said, being able to take advantage of some technical moves will be a nice complement. ;) :cool:

Shard, tell your wife's friend's friend 'Show me the news and i'll tell you the charts' :p lol.. I jest of course, but I just had to put that in here!! :)

Haha, no worries, I know where you're coming from! I thought you'd get a kick out of that regardless, as I found it in an intriguing quote. I know where he's coming from, but that being said, you can never ignore the fundamentals. Of course, you'll always run into technical traders who took a position based on the charts before the big Japanese interest rate announcement and then after the dust settled they're still ahead, who would then cite that the news had no effect on them, but I question whether sometimes that's just blind luck. Again, I think it's naive to ignore the news. :cool:

Then again, my wife's friend is the one living on a sailboat, not me... :o ;)

One thing, can someone explain to me what "Stop Hunting" is though?

It's all about arbitrage. :cool:

More specifically, stop-hunting is a tactic employed by institutional traders at banks, forex brokerages, etc. to drive the price into their customers' stops or the stops of other traders. Since an unscrupulous brokerage can quote its own internal forex prices, it has the ability to move its prices substantially from the normal interbank rates to trigger customer stops. The broker can then perform its own arbitrage with those stop-loss orders by clearing the currency lots obtained in its "stop hunt" at a better price with its interbank counter-party. Let's say you set a stop at 1.2855 and the broker can sell that lot into the interbank market at 1.2860 - well, in this loosely regulated market, they might just go on a "stop hunt". :rolleyes:

Hope that helps. :cool: