Anyone here into FOREX? [Archive] - Page 8

Music_Producer

Jun 28, 2007, 07:37 PM

Hey Music_Producer, I know you mentioned awhile back that MB has improved...and based on what I've read from felix, etc. I might go with them until I can meet the minimums for dukas/currenex.

How long does it take to get your money in and out of MB? (I dont want to miss any trades)

Somethings up with CMC IMO because, when you click it feels like someone is literally sitting there deciding whether to let you in or not...I dont know if thats the case but the requotes "feel" different now, if that makes any sense.

MB did improve.. but only for a while. As soon as I started making 2 - 3 profitable trades on them.. they started slipping me big time. They filled me in either at the top or the bottom of the spike.. so after 2 trades I quit.

My advice would be not to go with MB.. you could try them if you want to do limit orders though (not market orders)

~Shard~

Jun 28, 2007, 07:54 PM

Thanks for the advice Music_Producer, I'll give that all a try. Also, what is the NFA? Is that an American body or would that threat work here in Canada too? ;) I should look into regulations and so forth just to see...

nhallmark

Jun 28, 2007, 08:40 PM

MB did improve.. but only for a while. As soon as I started making 2 - 3 profitable trades on them.. they started slipping me big time. They filled me in either at the top or the bottom of the spike.. so after 2 trades I quit.

My advice would be not to go with MB.. you could try them if you want to do limit orders though (not market orders)

Wow....I was monitoring their spreads during NZD today and getting all excited but if theyre slipping you, thats no better than a 20 pip spread :rolleyes:

On the other hand, all I need is 2-3 good trades and I'll be able to get into dukascopy.

What would be the benefit of limit orders? I watched a video that felix had on how to use them with mb. It seems like the only advantage is you get filled within a range but if its out of that range...its basically a requote.

Im sure I'll find an answer.

Oh...I got confused about capital forex(pro)...I was thinking of PFG Forex so disregard what I said ;)

Shard, the NFA is the National Futures Association...I dont know if theyre in canada though.

~Shard~

Jun 28, 2007, 11:41 PM

Ah, okay thanks - like I said, I'll look into it for fun myself...

nhallmark

Jun 29, 2007, 08:35 AM

I got another requote on CAD GDP....goodbye CMC ;)

Im pulling my money out today. I'd rather not trade than deal with their sh$# anymore.

Music_Producer

Jun 29, 2007, 08:35 AM

14 pips on Canadian GDP report.. I got in a bit slow and then the price stalled.. so I was out. And then the damn thing went up again (EUR/CAD) ugh.. missed 20 more pips or so.

Music_Producer

Jun 29, 2007, 08:38 AM

I got another requote on CAD GDP....goodbye CMC ;)

Im pulling my money out today. I'd rather not trade than deal with their sh$# anymore.

Again? That's how many times in a row.. sheesh. It's better to put your money in a money market account.. at least it'll be earning 5-6% while you're sleeping :p

nhallmark

Jun 29, 2007, 03:46 PM

Music_Producer

Jun 29, 2007, 08:02 PM

I hear ya....I got my money out of CMC and into MB so we'll see how they go next week.

Oh yeah...Im typing this while Im on line for an iphone at the oaks mall in thousand oaks. Im tapping wifi from the apple store but its barely picking it up because Im around the corner from the store :p

Lol, I had a feeling you'd be waiting in line.. hopefully at the store here there will be nobody. :p

Someone's been trying to hack into my account all day today.. I finally got in. Is it you SEE EM SEE? ;)

Btw, I spoke to their dealing desk today.. and its confirmed, they put me on manual execution for all trades.. so the same probably applies to you. I tried trading gbp/usd during non-news time, no volatility or anything.. it took 10 seconds for the trade to go through.. and then another 10 seconds to close the trade. :rolleyes:

nhallmark

Jun 29, 2007, 11:01 PM

damn, man...Im glad I got my money out then. I was reading about one guy who recently opened an account with CMC and trades were being made that he didnt make supposedly and CMC "stole" a few grand from him. He also said he had been trading for 15 years prior to this.

Hopefully MB will be better or at least until I can get enough to move up to the "big leagues"

Anyway, Im back at the house now...got my iphone. This thing kicks a$$. I didnt really expect it to work as smooth as the videos but it does... I love it :D :D :D :D

nhallmark

Jun 30, 2007, 04:58 PM

Music_Producer

Jul 1, 2007, 12:22 AM

did any of you get an iphone yet? I'm typing this on mine right now...this thing kicks @ss!!!!

Anyway, I'm learning MB's platform over the weekend so I will be ready to go on Monday ...I'll let you guys know how they work out this week....I think I already said that, I just needed an excuse to post from my iPhone :p

I just tried it out at an AT&T store today.. damn.. I have to get it. They were all out of stock, told me to come in 2-3 days. I want to wait for the 3G version.. but I tried out EDGE and it was pretty reasonable.. ironically, apple.com took the longest time to load :p

It worked flawlessly.. very, very impressed. I like it even more than my macbook pro! :eek:

nhallmark

Jul 1, 2007, 12:54 AM

Well, supposedly AT&T sold out at almost all of their stores but people have been saying that you can walk into an Apple store now and pick one up with no line or anything.

They've got a page set up to check availability at each store here...

http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/

But yeah, at the apple store you get a cool bag to carry it in and they all clap for you when you're walking out :p (probably not now but at the initial launch they did)

OceanView

Jul 2, 2007, 12:43 PM

nhallmark

Jul 2, 2007, 02:46 PM

Hi Nathan,

How do you like your iPhone so far? Please give us your review.

I went to the Apple store on Saturday to take a look at the iPhone. Played with the functions but the unit that I was using did have some glitches so I decided to not buy it. I think the concept is great, but I think there are still a few things that need to be ironed out. Will wait till the next generation before I buy one.

What type of glitches are you talking about? There are some things that annoy me...for example...you cant switch to landscape mode in safari when you have the keyboard pulled up. You have to do it before you pull up the keyboard.

Also, with the "switches" like airplane mode, it looks like you slide to turn it on/off but you actually have to press the area next to it.

That's about it...I haven't noticed any glitches(glitches meaning software not working properly).

I really couldnt be happier with it. After having a razr, the iphone seems clunky when youre talking on the phone but its way better than a treo or blackberry or a Q which is wider.

...and thats only because I have small hands.

So, really, I love it...I've only had it since friday and already it feels like an extension of myself, because its so intuitive.

Uh, I guess that's it. I give it an 11 :D

StuNew78

Jul 3, 2007, 01:23 AM

Nhallmark, what is your SFS name in the diamonds room?

I missed the AUD/USD trade this morning, I heard it was a winner, and probably the first one for nearly 2 weeks... :p

Music_Producer

Jul 3, 2007, 07:00 AM

I missed out on the aussie trade today.. and that would have been a good trade. Went for a movie marathon - saw ratatouille and die hard.

Btw, currenex now shows up on safari :) I think it must have been either the safari update or the new java update (a couple of weeks ago) Probably the java one.. so I don't have to use my retarded pc anymore. Finally!

Britguy

Jul 3, 2007, 02:00 PM

I too got requoted on aus retail figs at cmc. I hope the news later in the week is better.

I will give them another week or two, and then look elsewhere if i still get requotes.

nhallmark

Jul 3, 2007, 03:34 PM

StuNew, Im not in the forexdiamonds room. I just have SNW.

MB wouldn't fill me on AUD retail sales or CHF CPI last night...using limit orders of course.

BritGuy, how long have you been with CMC? I was debating about going back and using my girlfriends name for awhile until they start playing games again but I guess I wont do that if theyre messing with you right off the bat.

Im down to the wire here...Ive got no way to make enough for the minimums of dukascopy or currenex...I might have to give up trading :p

Any suggestions on retail brokers?

Music_Producer

Jul 3, 2007, 04:51 PM

StuNew, Im not in the forexdiamonds room. I just have SNW.

MB wouldn't fill me on AUD retail sales or CHF CPI last night...using limit orders of course.

Any suggestions on retail brokers?

Nathan, try opening with your girlfriend's name like you mentioned.. but with a different address if possible. I'm pretty sure if you open with your address.. they will block it. Didn't you just move to LA? Can't you open with that address?

With MB.. was your limit a few pips away from the market price.. I am guessing it was. I would keep a 10 pip range. Don't give up.. I've had a couple of dry spells lasting weeks where I couldn't trade anything. Keep at it!

nhallmark

Jul 3, 2007, 05:01 PM

I had my limits set at 10-15 pips(not exact) which is why I am really confused about how I didn't get filled.

Anyway, I guess all I can do is keep trying. I've got one of my friends that might give me some money to meet the minimum.

If that falls through, I guess I will try CMC again.

Thanks for the encouragement, though :)

Britguy

Jul 3, 2007, 05:01 PM

I wouldnt bother i am using my girlfriends ac too. New Ac, but had a few requotes, but dont know if this is down to june being a poor month and that the only new trading opps have mostly been in aus/nz/cad currencies which dont have the best liquidity. I am in the same position, I dont have enough for currenex. I have read dukascopy isnt good for news either.

Music_Producer

Jul 3, 2007, 09:33 PM

14 pips on aussie trade.. the move was good, but not great. I think it might go higher up in a few hours.. who knows.

nhallmark

Jul 3, 2007, 09:44 PM

StuNew78

Jul 4, 2007, 01:53 AM

I f$&@king hate MB!!! i saw my order go in BEFORE it got to my limit and they still didnt execute it :mad:

Luckily,one of my friends is giving me the money for dukascopy.

Britguy, where did you here they suck for news? Everything I have read suggests that they are as good as currenex and better in some cases.

nhalmark, I've also heard Dukascopy are not good for News fills. I started using MB trading this week, I missed a fill on the AUD trade balance report this morning... so still too early to tell.
MB Trading is known to put orders on queue to match up with bank offers on the otherside. The word in my trading room, (and about 50 traders are with MB) is to never use market orders with them, only limit orders. Slippage on market orders can be huge, limit orders may not always fill in, but theywon't fill in if the price has slipped past your limit order... hope that make sense :rolleyes:

Britguy

Jul 4, 2007, 05:06 AM

I have used a demo from Dukas, and never got good execution at newstime, so i dont think they are as good as currenex in that respect. You have to get notary to validate a copy of your passport, to open an ac, which is a hassle too.

nhallmark

Jul 4, 2007, 12:57 PM

Thanks, Britguy. I used their demo on a NZD report around the end of may(dont remember which one) and I got in fine although the spread was bouncing between 3-6. That's still better than a requote though ;)

I've already got my ID notarized and sent to them so that part is no problem.

I guess Im just going to see for myself because Im running out of options here.

Music_Producer

Jul 5, 2007, 10:05 AM

18 pips on the US ISM report.. I didn't trade the UK and Eur interest rate decisions, but watched the spreads. Spread on gbp/usd widened to about 7 pips.. and eur/usd stayed at 2 pips. Not bad at all.. I expected spreads to widen during interest rate announcements.

Nathan, it's worth trying out dukas.. start off with a not too significant news report.. see if your trades go through fine.

Britguy

Jul 5, 2007, 10:17 AM

How many standard lots are you trading MP on currenex?

Britguy

Jul 6, 2007, 07:21 AM

Requote on CMC for both UK and CAD releases. Next stop CNX.

mekis

Jul 6, 2007, 04:06 PM

nevermind - found the answer to my question

sjshaw

Jul 9, 2007, 07:58 PM

Toreador93

Jul 9, 2007, 09:22 PM

Geez... I found this thread and am reading the whole thing from start to end. I'm on page 6 of 45. I should be ready to start trading in 2009 or so. :)

I wish there was a way to print the whole thread at once. It would be a novel, but an informative one.

I know how you feel, it took me quite a few hours to catch up when I started reading it.

I've been trying to save this thread, and the best way I found is to go to the Print Friendly version, click "Show 40 posts from this thread on one page, select the first text and drag down to the last, and copy/paste. It doesn't take more than maybe 15 seconds a page.

[Edit]

Actually, I just finished copying the thread up to the 44th page. If you want, you can PM me your email address, and I'll send it to you. As a .doc file, it's 6.37mb (and 543 pages at 10 font, with tables).

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 01:15 AM

How many standard lots are you trading MP on currenex?

Britguy, I trade anywhere from 1 million to 5 million units.. depending on the report involved. I didn't trade the NFP.. I usually never do, since it has a tendency to be extremely volatile and the spreads go crazy.

I'll be trading the UK trade balance today, although i doubt it will cause a significant move. Nathan, did you open your dukas account yet?

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 04:35 AM

23 pips on the UK trade balance report.. I traded twice on this one.. the first time i bought and sold.. then it dipped.. so i entered again. Wasn't a big deviation, but fairly enough to make it move more than 10 pips or so.

I won't be trading the canadian interest rate decision itself, as that has been priced in (rate hike expected) Of course if they don't hike the rate.. then i'l buy usd/cad. I'll watch out for the statement accompanying the rate and trade that accordingly.

~Shard~

Jul 10, 2007, 12:17 PM

Hi guys, I've been away for a while biut thought I'd check back in. Haven't been trading at all these past couple weeks as I've been away on a fishing trip and have been busy with other things as well. Glad to see everyone's still trading and learning and all that good stuff. ;) I'll get back into trading this week and will post my results... Take care... :cool:

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 05:51 PM

Shard, check out the JPY pairs.. USD/JPY lost about 200 pips today.. and I jumped in (on CMC.. hehe, time to take my revenge on them) Shorted USD/JPY at 121.65.. sucker went to 121.35 and I got out. I think it may still go down more.. all jpy pairs are being hammered.. and for vague reasons.

I don't know.. I have a funny feeling that it's either:

1. They have some inside information that Japan is going to hike rates or..

2. Japan is going to leave rates as they are.. and they are just getting ready for some massive profit taking by driving jpy pairs down.. and then buying them up at a good price.

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 06:41 PM

I'm practically having a massively enjoyable session.. I was watching gbp/jpy and usd/jpy.. usd/jpy hit 121 and then stayed there. GBP/JPY was stuck at 245.08. All of a sudden, both started jumping.. 5 pips, then 10.. then 20.. then 30. So makes me wonder if this so called 'drop' was all manipulated so that everyone could get in at a lower price ;)

I stayed out though.. but after GBP/JPY hit 245.60 in a few seconds, I jumped in and bought a huge lot.. and exited at 245.93 :D When these suckers move, they MOVE!

~Shard~

Jul 10, 2007, 06:41 PM

Great, thanks for the head's up Music_Producer. :) As you say, either this is only the tip of the iceberg and someone knows something, or the carry remains (inexplicably) strong and this is simply an artifical pullback before even more carry trades pile on. :rolleyes: ;)

Regardless, great job on your CMC revenge trade :D and I might just have to do likewise if things continue... The rate announcement isn't until tomorrow night though I believe...

Thanks again! :cool:

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 06:47 PM

Yup, I think it's ust a buying setup.. I have seen this happen a few times. All jpy pairs fall 200-400 pips.. and then come back up almost in one day!

GBP/JPY is at 246.15 now.. so it jumped more than 100 pips in literally a few minutes. I also had a feeling that 121.00 would be a good support level for USD/JPY and it would bounce back to maybe 10 or 20 pips.. but gbp/jpy is a different beast.. it can totally make or break your trade.

Music_Producer

Jul 10, 2007, 07:00 PM

Tons of bad news regarding the US Economy.. the S&P is downgrading $12 billion worth of subprime mortgage bonds.. and then the us treasury notes fell quite a bit in value.. so.. basically the $ looks pretty weak unless the Fed chief idiot raises the rates (again, he should.. but if he does, the housing industry gets screwed more, in my opinion though, i don't care about that effect)

I've been eyeing USD/CAD.. it's gone up quite a bit.. but I'll wait until CAD/JPY settles down.

Music_Producer

Jul 11, 2007, 09:41 PM

18 pips on aussie unemployment report.. and the unemployment report also went up to 4.3%

Music_Producer

Jul 12, 2007, 03:08 AM

Whatever you do, do NOT open an account with CMC Markets, or if you have one open.. get your money out and close it. I was trading the JPY pairs today.. no-news trades.. and I would short the pairs..

My profit was at $350 for an open trade.. so i closed it.. it took ten seconds to close.. and the profit still showed $350.. and then it closed.. and profit? $0! :mad::mad::mad: This happened a couple of times, every profitable trade i closed.. reverted back to zero profits. WTF??? Re-quotes is one thing, but cancelling your profits is a sorry ass way of dealing. Bunch of losers

Britguy

Jul 12, 2007, 06:10 AM

Music_Producer

Jul 12, 2007, 07:25 AM

MP,

Did u contact CMC and ask why they cancelled you're $350 trade? I do think CMC reputation has been suffering. I am getting a lot more requotes than say 2 months ago, even though i'm not on manual execution. At least currenex is working for you.

I did, and they replied back with the usual canned answer stating that the currency moved when i clicked to close my position.. slimy liars.. the pair stayed at the same level for more than a minute after i closed my position. I wish I had video taped it.

Yes, currenex is working great.. and so have my jpy pairs trades (I'm also trading them on mb trading) Basically everytime there is a huge sell off in jpy pairs.. look for buying opportunities, they eventually come back up.

Britguy

Jul 12, 2007, 08:10 AM

Yes, whats annoying is you find an edge in the markets, and firms like cmc do every trick in the book to stop you winning. It isnt until you start winning, that you realise what a crooked game you are playing.

I presume on the JPY trade you were only after a few pips <10 and they took back from you.

~Shard~

Jul 12, 2007, 08:36 AM

That's horrible Music_Producer. :( I've been more and more frustrated with MC as of late myself - it seems like when I'm waiting for the news and then I get the report, the pair (at least as CMC represents it) doesn't move at all, even when I think there should be movement - it's like they're "stalling" it - at least to me. :o ;) This might not be the case, but still, once I have some more time I am definitely going to look into alternatives.

Anywho, no trade just now. CMC didn't move at all, but it didn't appear as there was much variance to the US data either, so fair enough...

Music_Producer

Jul 12, 2007, 08:52 AM

I've seen that happen too Shard.. the price remains the same.. i.e. until you get in or out.. sometimes I've even seen it move the opposite direction (I have a oanda window open at the same time.. the oanda chart goes up.. and the cmc price goes down)

Absolutely ludicrous that a firm that has so many branches worldwide can pull tricks like these. Britguy, yup.. I was just trying out a few 'logical' trades with the jpy pairs.. not after a lot of pips at all.

In fact, about 10 minutes before the US trade balance, I shorted the USD/CAD since the canadian trade balance was coming out.. and I thought that the USD/CAD had been overbought. Kept my fingers crossed.. and as the news came out.. usd/cad went down by 12 pips or so.. and i made my profit.

I have been trading since the last few days based on pure logic.. things happen when the london markets open.. new york opens and so on. For instance right now, gbp/usd has fallen by more than 30 pips since the US markets opened. So I was using the cmc platform to try out my non-news trades.. but they've started messing around with those as well.

Britguy

Jul 12, 2007, 11:29 AM

Music_Producer

Jul 12, 2007, 06:50 PM

Nice, solid trade - a hefty 26 pips on the nzd report. On my mb account, I had also bought a few lots of nzd/usd this morning.. had a feeling it would go up. Maybe I should trade with my gut feeling now .. it's becoming more reliable these days :p

Music_Producer

Jul 12, 2007, 06:55 PM

I agree with your point on the Yen pairs - buy dips. Would you consider the same with the US stock market. Sell Dow around the 13700 mark for a couple of hundred points profit?

NZ - retail figs tonight. I am looking forward to this trade as its a pre-cursor to the interest rate story in late July. So much worse figs NZD/USD will be hammered, whereas much better figs may make a July hike likely.

I am not absolutely sure of the stock market at all.. since I don't trade that.. but yes, the same principle should apply. The Dow is also susceptible to earnings report and all that, so be careful. At least with the JPY pairs, you know that there is a basic trend - upwards - due to the carry trade.. and hence it's a lot more comfortable to buy on dips.

But with any massive sell-off.. a correction is bound to happen.. so yeah, you could do that with the Dow as well. I just don't trust stocks lol

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 04:51 AM

Requoted for CMC - Quelle surprise, for NZ retail sales. I am not on manual execution, but i believe an account exec has gone over my profitable trades and reduced the amount i can trade on each instrument now. So where once i could get $70 a point, now it is $10.

Which autoclick service do you use, MP? I spoke to capforex, they said the leverage is 50:1. But i suppose its better to get filled on low leverage than not at all.

StuNew78

Jul 13, 2007, 05:52 AM

Hey all,

I blew my account up this week and have been in denial ever since. I bet against the EUR/USD on last fridays NFP. I saw 10% equity profit, then it retraced past my entry. I told myself, 'It's going to go down again.'
So still holding onto my position, I almost got out at break even on Tuesday, then the EUR made the biggest jump in years in one day and my over-leveraged position destroyed my account at -150pips.

Very expensive lesson. And my confidence is rocked.

I'm going to get out of my trading room and subscribe to TTN. I need to learn exactly why the market does what it does on raw data. Not by just following someone else. It's unconcious trading what I'm currently doing.

Best of luck to you all, I'll be trading on demo for a while, so if I have a big win, it's not real :rolleyes:

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 07:36 AM

Britguy, I don't use auto click services.. I don't trust any third party applications that can control my trading - I am actually faster trading myself than depending on software. I guess I have just traded so much, that I am used to it.

Stu.. sorry to hear about that loss, I've blown up my account as well (when I first started a few years ago)

First lesson:

NEVER take any advice from anyone on a forum, or subscribe to any signal software. You have to ask YOURSELF, why you think a currency pair is going to go up or down.

The NFP didn't deviate much.. so EUR/USD had no business going down.. especially when you take into account all the bad news hogging the US economy (subprime defaults especially)

Just when you think a currency pair can't go any higher.. any bank can step in.. any news can make the situation worse.. and it will shoot up before you can blink. ALWAYS employ a stop loss, if you're going to be trading based on technicals, or any fundamental strategy.

I shorted USD/CAD before the US and Canadian trade balance.. because I assumed that the US trade balance wouldn't be great ... and the canadian would probably come out better. Also aiding this decision was the fact that USD/CAD had gone up by more than 120-150 pips since the last few days.. so i thought it was ready for a drop.

It did drop .. I got out with a profit.. but eventually, it dropped by 80 more pips. Why? Couple of news - canadian inflation is still high.. and the price of oil shot up yesterday.. so CAD went up massively.

Everytime oil goes up - CAD goes up, USD goes down, gold goes up and JPY goes down.

I am beginning to see the broader picture of trading forex.. and it's much better than trading news.. when you trade on common sense, read the news regarding a currency pair, interest rates, etc.

Keep the Oanda news window open.. I think last night they had a report that stated 'Rumors of big banks selling the pound' and surely enough.. 15 minutes later the pound dropped 40-50 pips. Don't just trade blindly, or go on what some trader says their Harry Potter indicator predicts on where a currency will go.

I kept thinking to myself - how the bloody hell does George Soros have such successful trades? He's been short on the US$ since the beginning of 2007! Now that's a long term trade - and obviously he's enjoying his profits right now. He has had his losses too - everyone makes a loss, so don't let that deter you.

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 07:51 AM

Take a look at gbp/usd.. almost 40 minutes to go before the US retail sales.. and it's at 2.0326. I was hoping for it to stay at 2.0295 or so.. I would have gone long.. because I have a feeling US retail sales are not going to be so great.

Anyway, if the US sales come out better than expected.. then I'll be buying gbp/usd after it falls (i will trade the news first as well) I'll be buying a very small lot since i am still testing out my non-news trades.

If the US sales come out weak.. then be careful. The gbp/usd will go up.. but there might be a lot of resistance. It might tempt banks to go short to book profits.. and then buy it again later on during the day. Good luck!

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 08:42 AM

Hey, I was right :p US retail sales came out worse than expected.. bagged 30 pips on this one.. nice trade.. can't believe GBP is still going up. It can reach 2.0400, but I predict a fall.. for some profit taking.. and then it might go back up.

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 08:45 AM

MP,

How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can?

No fills on us retail figs, will have to open up a cnx ac now.

Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 08:49 AM

MP,

How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can?

No fills on us retail figs, will have to open up a cnx ac now.

Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.

I frankly don't know.. I just attribute it to my years in medical school and all the bloody exams.. lol, I just think really quick in these kind of situations. I did try an autoclick (SNW) software once, I didn't like it. I was faster, and one time the software made an error.. gave a trade in the opposite direction.. which completely made me think why the hell people pay for these services.

Pound just dropped from 2.0360 to 2.0335.. I really want it to go to 2.0950 or somewhere there.. I'll be buying when it drops below the 2.0300 mark.. because it's bound to go back up later during the day. Hurry up and short the pound you big banks! :D

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 08:52 AM

So what news service do you have which gives the news fast?

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 09:16 AM

So what news service do you have which gives the news fast?

I'm using Reuters right now, I was using Trade the news for the longest time.. reuters.. well it's maybe a second or two earlier. I am not sure how much faster bloomberg is.

Honestly, it's easier trading after the news report, as I am finding out. When the currency pair hits a high.. short it.. it eventually retraces a bit.. and vice versa (exceptions are jpy pairs of course)

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 09:31 AM

I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of profit-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 09:34 AM

I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of profit-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.

You can, just practice on a demo account.. and I mean practice every report possible. Alternatively, like i mentioned before.. you could just trade post-spike. Yeah, i noticed the jpy pairs too.. if only we could work at these banks carrying out all these trades..

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 09:40 AM

~Shard~

Jul 13, 2007, 09:47 AM

CMC re-quote on US data this morning. :rolleyes: Like I said, when I get more time I'm going to look into other options. For now, I'll stick it out I guess, although it's frustrating when I know I could be making more money than I am, by no fault of my own...

Britguy

Jul 13, 2007, 09:54 AM

Shard,

what was the last news release that CMC filled you on?

I think mine was US retail figs last month.

Music_Producer

Jul 13, 2007, 10:06 AM

So, on a post-spike trade what do you do if it makes a new high/low? Do you look for a deviation in the past and compare the result against it. EG 0.5 deviation on Us retail moves the price 30pips, so therefore you fade when the +30pips has completed?

I don't look at the deviations in the past.. I usually have an idea of how much a report tends to move currencies.. of course, anything to do with interest rates will move them 80-100 pips..

I look at how the pair has moved since the previous day.. and trade accordingly. It's a whole bunch of analyses really.

I just checked - the jpy pairs dropped because Iran wants payment from japan (for oil) in Yen, not USD.. so the yen strengthened. Typical news related move.

~Shard~

Jul 13, 2007, 10:48 AM

Shard,

what was the last news release that CMC filled you on?

I think mine was US retail figs last month.

Good question, tough to say since I haven't been actively trading this past month. I'll have to check my records and see. I think I might just phone them and see what excuses they come up with.... ;) :D

Music_Producer

Jul 17, 2007, 05:01 AM

One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips. I think the pound could crack the 2.050 level.. Bernanke's probably sweating right now lol :D

Britguy

Jul 17, 2007, 05:20 AM

Good result MP. Still going well at Capforex?

mikler1

Jul 17, 2007, 06:07 AM

Hi, Music Producer and others...

Greetings from London!

Firstly, can I say thanks - I have been following this thread for the past few weeks - yes - I have read it all! :-) It is fascinating to read. And I greatly appreciate the openness and generosity of comments....

>>One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips.

I am puzzled - the figures were lower than expected, yet the GPB went up? Was this because it was higher than expected (and therefore interest rates are still likely to go up?) Have I finally 'got it'?

Also, MP, you mention that you are no longer using tradethenews - instead you are using Reuters News - why s that? which reuters service are you using?

Also, there was mention once on something on .mac? What was that?

Well done re todays 50 pips! - Brilliant!

Thanks very much!

Music_Producer

Jul 17, 2007, 06:15 AM

Britguy, i traded this one on mb trading.. i couldn't log into currenex for some reason.. maybe they don't want me anymore :confused: I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in. There was a spike, and then gbp/usd retraced (not all the way, but quite a bit) I was going to exit after 10-12 pips.. but the pair just kept going up and up.. I was ready to look for any resistance at 2.0400 but it just shot up to 2.0406 and higher.

mikler.. the figures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up.

Looks like it just broke the 2.0450 barrier.. this is crazy.. don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale? :p

mikler1

Jul 17, 2007, 06:36 AM

>>don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale?
Anything to keep you guys out of bed!!! :-)

>>I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in.
Can you explain that a bit? Or are you referring to mb?

>>mikler.. the figures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up.

Thanks for explaining.

Can you clarify which Reuters news service you are using?

Thanks

Mik

~Shard~

Jul 17, 2007, 10:47 AM

Was there a trade on any of the US data this morning? :confused: I was waiting, all ready to trade, but CMC didn't move hardly at all. Not sure if I'm paranoid now about their "practices" or if there was legitimately no trade. :o ;) Ah well, there will always be another....

P.S. Music_Producer, I sent you an e-mail, just fyi, not sure how often you check... ;) :)

Britguy

Jul 18, 2007, 07:53 AM

Anyone get filled on CAD CPI?

KevAllen83

Jul 18, 2007, 10:28 AM

Anyone get filled on CAD CPI?

Or the US CPI news for that matter? I'm slowly but surely making my way through babypips.com, and had a try with an Oanda game account, and of course traded in the wrong direction.:rolleyes: Maybe if I could use USD/GBP on Oanda, I would have done it correctly. Oh well!

Music_Producer

Jul 19, 2007, 12:18 AM

Kev.. how did you trade in the opposite direction? The US CPI came out just a bit higher than expected.. so I saw the gbp/usd dip to about 2.0465 (took its time) I didn't wake up in time to trade the canadian cpi.. that looked like it could have been a good trade.

I traded the Bernanke speech next.. he's known to be a wuss and basically everytime he talks, the $ goes down. Anyway, as soon as i noticed that he stated that the US GDP will be worse than expected and that rates would be cut.. more likely in 2008.. I bought the gbp/usd .. and it started going up. I got out after netting 15 pips.. and this always happens. Every time I stay in a trade.. the price will move up slowly.. soon as I exit.. it will jump up lol.

So yeah.. it eventually went up 40-50 pips more.. let's see what the brit retail sales bring tonight.

Britguy

Jul 19, 2007, 04:16 AM

Mp,

How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average?

Britguy

Music_Producer

Jul 19, 2007, 04:52 AM

Mp,

How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average?

Britguy

Britguy, reuters is 750 (plus taxes, etc) .. bloomberg is way more expensive. I can't compare it to any autoclick programs because I don't use those, but it is definitely faster than Trade the news. However, it works out to the same execution speed as with TTN and a market maker like CMC.. because Currenex is faster as well.

Additionally, I am using limit orders.. so sometimes a trade doesn't get executed (if I'm slow by even a few milliseconds) Like today, I didn't get executed right away.. so I waited for the retrace, and hit 'sell' again.. bagged about 18 pips.

I have been noticing that it's much easier to trade the retracement, rather than try and get into the initial spike. Of course, if it's a report like an unexpected interest rate/hike then trade away.. don't look for any retracements, because there won't be any!

Britguy

Jul 19, 2007, 05:01 AM

Mp,

But what your saying with reuteurs is that you have enough time to see the release, hit buy or sell based on those numbers, all before the spike?

What do you base your retracement entry on - 50% of spike, or a basing pattern.

$750 isnt bad if it gives u an edge.

I always thought you used mkt orders on cnx?

~Shard~

Jul 19, 2007, 09:08 AM

Urgh, no trade again this morning - pairs just didn't move much. Ah well...

KevAllen83

Jul 19, 2007, 02:50 PM

Shard and M_P...

You may have already answered this question in one of the pages way back when, but how did the two of you get started in to Forex? I honestly stumbled upon Forex maybe about a month ago or so (this thread), and it's unbelievable how much you need to know - how to read graphs, which broker to use (personal pref. obviously), news sources, knowing the historical limits of Dollars, Pounds, Euros, etc...

Did the both of you start off doing the short-term spike trading, or were you more of long-term traders and moved to short-term...?

Thanks guys. Attempting to break my brain in to learning this stuff, but currently just breaking my brain!

Music_Producer

Jul 20, 2007, 06:23 AM

Britguy, I do use mkt orders on currenex.. but mostly on retracing.. so chance of slippage is nil.

Here's how I traded the UK GDP report today. Btw.. the time difference between the spike on currenex and the reuters report is very negligible, you have to be really quick to enter. Now if you used reuters with a retail bucketshop broker, you'll have ample time to get in before the spike.. but you'll obviously be met with a re-quote.

Anyway.. I didn't trade the spike today, I traded the retracing. I saw the gdp come out higher than expected.. as usual.. gbp/usd spiked up.. it went up to 2.0526 and then started dropping. I knew the numbers were good.. I usually wait for a fall of 10-15 pips before getting in. It started falling to 2.0513.. and then went to 2.0511.. and that's when I hit 'buy'.

Since this was a post-spike trade, my market order went through right away. It dipped further to 2.0507, but after a few minutes went back up.. eventually it went up to 2.0528 and I exited. So I netted 21 pips *after* the spike.

I was also ready to place a massive sell order if it hit 2.0550.. since it's a pretty important psychological barrier for the pound. If it did hit 2.0550, it would stay for a bit, come down to maybe 2.0540 (10 pip profit) maybe even lower.. hang around.. and then try to go back up.

So there are a lot of ways to trade than just the spike. Trading post spike, again, does not apply to interest rate reports, or currencies like nzd/usd (I've hardly ever seen any retracing on those) GBP/USD - I see retracing all the time.

Kev - I got into forex after reading about George Soros.. lol. The first time I got in, I was trading blindly and promptly lost my $3000 deposit. I made the mistake of opening a live account right away, instead of practicing on a demo. After playing on a demo for a few months, I finally started trading sensibly.

I prefer short term trades - long term - who knows what can happen. For instance, right now I know that good long term bets are - GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. All these should go up.. but I don't have the patience nor the stomach to go through all the ups and downs.

Take the pound for example - UK economy is looking good, inflation is high, so they will raise interest rates, US economy is struggling, etc.. all this points to positive gbp/usd movement. Why? It's very likely that interest rates on the pound will be hiked, whereas the US$ rates will stay the same, or may be cut. If you were a bank with billions of $.. wouldn't you invest in pounds.. and get a nice fat interest on your deposit? That's what makes the pound go up.. it offers a nice interest rate (compared to the USD) Look at all the Yen pairs.. why is the yen so low? Because it offers a 0.5% interest rate..

Long term trading is great if you have the funds necessary to allow for any major drawdowns. It's very important to keep abreast of daily financial reports relating to the respective economies of whatever currency you may be trading.

mikler1

Jul 20, 2007, 08:35 AM

A general question....

Please could someone explain to a newbie why there is retracing? What is the logic behind it?

Thanks very much to evryone on this forum - by reading only, I have learned lots!

Mik

nhallmark

Jul 20, 2007, 02:06 PM

mikler1, the retrace is usually profit taking...for example...everyone buys on the news which creates a spike upwards and eventually the people that bought are going to sell to close their positions...so the price will move back down or "retrace" part of the spike and if the news is really good(or bad) the move will then continue further in the direction of the initial spike.

Hope that helps :)

Britguy

Jul 23, 2007, 04:27 AM

Mp,

I understand now. Limit orders for spike trading and market orders for retracements on currenex.

I presume you put your stop just under the pre-release price for retracements.

I am a short-termist too. I havent really got the balls for long term trades yet.

mikler1

Jul 23, 2007, 11:37 AM

Thanks - that explanation was great!

OceanView

Jul 23, 2007, 05:20 PM

nhallmark

Jul 23, 2007, 06:07 PM

OK, I'm back.
I tried to trade without the news and lost my @ss.
My theory of no stop trading did not work as there were trades I could not close for days while loosing all my account.

Back to basics is where I need to be.
I guess part of the reason for me to trade outside of the news announcements was that I could not find a decent platform to trade without getting requotes or no executions unless I opted for a currenex account. At this point, I am affraid to risk $50K for it. So I am in kind of stuck as to how I can trade the news without risking a large amount of money.

Any ideas?

Im not even sure you can get filled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers.

MP seems to have the after spike trades figured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:

OceanView

Jul 23, 2007, 06:37 PM

Im not even sure you can get filled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers.

MP seems to have the after spike trades figured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:

I think what MP is doing is just waiting for the news, if the news is good then he waits for a dip and buys. I think he stays in the trade a bit longer to achieve the maximum profit as possible and then closes the trade. Over time (1-4 hours), the news tends to keep the same general direction.
If the news is bad, then he sells (doing the opposite of above) and rides the trend and closes at a later time.
I am guessing this is what he is doing but maybe he will be along shortly to explain in more detail.

Music_Producer

Jul 23, 2007, 06:39 PM

Britguy, I don't place any stops - when you trade fundamentals, and the report is strong, the price does move your way.

After-spike trading also works - again, you have to take into consideration the deviation of the report. If a report hardly deviates, then there will be a small spike, and a full retracement, and that's it. There's no telling where the currency will go next - that would be trading blindly.

Take the AUD PPI report yesterday. When the PPI came out higher than expected.. AUD/USD spiked from 0.8793 to 0.8805.. and then fell back (slightly) to 0.8800. I got in at that point.. however, the price remained at about 0.8804-0.8805 for the next 20 minutes. After that, it rose to 0.8810.. that's when I exited.

An hour later.. the price went up to 0.8838! So this was a good 40 pips move, slow.. really easy to get in. Also, take into account it was a sunday here - so no US banks were buyin/selling.. so the aussie $ really had no opposition to it's upward move.

After spike trading works, but you have to be patient. Spike trading - you get in and out in 2-3 seconds. After spike trading.. you have to be slightly more patient, take into account present market conditions and trade accordingly.

Edit : - You got it Ocean ;-) Btw, if you do want to trade 'technicals' just take advantage of the fact that the $ is weak, and the jpy is weak. Look at the pairs I mentioned in an earlier post - they all have a long term upward bias. Look for dips, and buy. Take NZD/USD for example.. when the RBNZ (bank of new zealand) sold a trillion NZD .. because they thought the currency was too high.. it dropped 100-120 pips.. and the sucker started coming back up. Within a few hours it was back to it's original level! Look for dips in aud/jpy, gbp/usd, nzd/usd.. trade accordingly and please keep the news ticker open!

OceanView

Jul 23, 2007, 06:39 PM

Nathan,

I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now?
Are you even trading?
And, how is SoCal Life so far?

nhallmark

Jul 23, 2007, 06:59 PM

I double posted...sorry

nhallmark

Jul 23, 2007, 07:01 PM

Nathan,

I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now?
Are you even trading?
And, how is SoCal Life so far?

Im on dukascopy...no fill on UK CPI or UK GDP last week.

Ive been trying some technicals again but Im about to quit trading all together
and go get a job so I can make some money:rolleyes:

LA is cool...its damn expensive though.

MP, thats what Im talking about...I got 1 pip on AUD PPI yesterday...I waited for the retrace..I got in and it kind of stayed there for a good 15-30 minutes so I closed...and then it takes off.

Music_Producer

Jul 23, 2007, 08:37 PM

OceanView

Jul 23, 2007, 09:58 PM

Yup nathan, happens to me all the time - price takes off soon as I exit :rolleyes: Btw, pound just broke the 2.0600 barrier.. up at 2.0630 now. This sucker's going to be at 2.100 in a month unless pu$$y bernanke does something.

Ha ha :p
I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't.
My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.

Music_Producer

Jul 23, 2007, 10:08 PM

Ha ha :p
I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't.
My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.

Don't worry.. he won't raise rates.. he'll just 'talk' a bit about how inflation is important blah blah.. but if he raises rates the housing market will be doomed. There's just too much housing woes going on right now, I don't think he will add to it.

Right now gbp/usd looks dangerous to trade - I'm going to wait for the housing reports to enter any trade. Also, look out for australian cpi tomorrow.. and trade aud/usd and aud/jpy accordingly. Remember that their default direction is upward anyway.. so if the cpi comes out higher than expected.. buy.

nhallmark

Jul 24, 2007, 12:02 AM

MP, do you think there will be an after spike trade on CAD retail sales in the morning, provided that the data warrants it?

Im trying to figure it out because Ive seen some CAD reports where the move wont continue and some where it will go 60-80 pips past the initial spike...both with a huge deviation.

I'll be ready for AUD tomorrow...should come out good since PPI did and last time CPI followed PPI pretty close.

sjshaw

Jul 24, 2007, 12:56 AM

Well, I just finished reading the whole thread, and it appears my fears were well-founded... news trading (a la what MP and others were doing at the beginning) is dead unless you go with a good broker using currenex, no?

If I wanted to get started trading the news, and don't want to open a $50k account with capitalforex, do I have any options?

I looked at the broker reviews at forexbastards (http://www.forexbastards.com/public/forex_broker_reviews), but what do you guys think? Ever looked at tradestation? They are famous in the commodity community, and rightly so. I have an account with xpresstrade, whose FOREX arm is xtfx.com, so they are an option as well, I suppose.

MP, nhallmark, other vets of this thread: if you were starting out today, what broker would you use and how would you have changed your initial approach?

I don't want to sink even more hours into learning FOREX if the only options given to new traders is to lose your money with slippage, outrageous spreads, and outright fraud.

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 07:11 AM

Nathan, I'll try and trade the initial spike.. but if i don't get in, i'll try and trade as soon as it stagnates (depending on the report of course) I had a very nice trade tonight, when gbp/usd hit 2.0650 which is a good psychological barrier for the markets.. I shorted it.. and it went down to 2.0635.. which is when I exited. I expected it to come back to 2.0650 but it didn't.

Then the UK report came in pretty horrid (industrial trend orders) - basically because of the strong pound.. brit exports are suffering. So I shorted gbp/usd on that report.. at 2.0612.. had to wait 45 minutes for it to reach 2.0604 and then exited.

Some struggle going on at 2.0600.. obviously, let's see if that is breached.

SJ.. I think if I were to start forex now, I would have a much more open mind - and not merely limited to trading news spikes. As soon as I encountered broker issues (because of autoclick services, just about anybody and everybody started making money.. so brokers started shutting them down).. I thought that was it, it's the end of trading. However, it forces you to think otherwise, of different methods (anything other than technicals - i can't trade technicals at all)

So right now, I'm simply trading on fundamentals.. and if I see some major barriers, I will jump in. I lost 6 pips on a technical trade yesterday so that was it for me - technicals are simply guessing where the chart is going to land up in the next few minutes or hours.

Logicaly, gbp/usd should go down further.. and then shoot back up when the US home sales report comes out (expected to be bad - but you never know)

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 08:36 AM

DAMN!!! What a #$%# trade!! Extreme deviation - great for Canadian $.. I got in right away.. filled at 1.0421 (jumped from 1.0440 i think - so i got in after the first 20 pip move) Didn't even wait for a retrace because with this kind of report, there's no retracements baby!

Exited at 1.0388.. and it went all the way to 1.0375 :eek::D:D This is the kind of trade where you can make a killing..

nhallmark

Jul 24, 2007, 09:01 AM

Good job man!! I couldnt get filled on the spike but after it paused, I got in at 1.0405 and out at 1.0375....30 pips :D

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 09:05 AM

Good job man!! I couldnt get filled on the spike but after it paused, I got in at 1.0405 and out at 1.0375....30 pips :D

Yehhh.. that's what we're talking about :D There's talks of it going to 1.0325 but I'm not getting in now.. lol. Btw, check gbp/usd out - it hit 2.0650 again, and then dropped 25 pips. I'll be ready to short at 2.0700 if it does hit that level.

sjshaw

Jul 24, 2007, 12:18 PM

However, it forces you to think otherwise, of different methods (anything other than technicals - i can't trade technicals at all)

So right now, I'm simply trading on fundamentals.. and if I see some major barriers, I will jump in.

Thanks for the response. If you have time, would you please elaborate on your current trading strategies as opposed to your news spike strategies? From reading the recent posts, it appears that you are playing the retracement game, but you imply there is more than that. Obviously, you were relying on fundamentals before. How is your current reliance on them and your resulting strategy different? You're talking about support and resistance points, but that is a technical approach.

Also, any broker recommendations for a beginner, since CMC is clearly out?

Britguy

Jul 24, 2007, 03:18 PM

Mp,

Are you topping up on the Carry trades today? They look value here.

Britguy

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 03:56 PM

Mp,

Are you topping up on the Carry trades today? They look value here.

Britguy

Hey Britguy, I just woke up.. I'm not getting into the carry trades yet.. I think the jpy pairs should still fall. You never know when a sell off starts but it looks like it's happening right now. I'm scouring the news right now, to look for any information - nothing so far - looks like just broad based banks selling.

Edit : - I am waiting for aud/jpy to hit 105.. let's see if it does.

revenuee

Jul 24, 2007, 04:12 PM

the last two weeks

USD/EUR 187 pips and still holding
USD/ GBP 468 pips and still holding
USD/ PLN - sold at 340 pips after 5 days
USD/DKK - sold at 837 pips after 12 days

pretty good run

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 09:38 PM

The jpy pairs dropped further down britguy.. like I said they would. I usually wait for a 300-400 pip drop.. gbp/jpy is scary.. it can go even 1000 pips in a matter of hours.

Also, gbp/usd is down as I mentioned in an earlier post.. it's a good way for banks to make profits - drive it down to sub 2.0600 levels.. and then when US home sales come out disappointing, should go back up. Again, I'm assuming home sales will be lower than forecast. Let's see what happens.

Edit : - 14 pips on aud/usd trade - aud cpi came out higher than expected.

nhallmark

Jul 24, 2007, 10:03 PM

I got filled at 0.8823 so I closed + 10.

MP, did you really lose money on AUD CPI? Why did you have a position open before news?

Music_Producer

Jul 24, 2007, 10:07 PM

I got filled at 0.8823 so I closed + 10.

MP, did you really lose money on AUD CPI? Why did you have a position open before news?

Oh no nathan.. the "-" was merely a dash - not meant to be negative 14 pips :p I did make a profit.. and there was ample opportunity to get in a retrace as well.. it dropped to 0.8811.. and then slowly climbed back up to 0.8835. Missed that opportunity..

nhallmark

Jul 25, 2007, 01:31 AM

Oh no nathan.. the "-" was merely a dash - not meant to be negative 14 pips :p I did make a profit.. and there was ample opportunity to get in a retrace as well.. it dropped to 0.8811.. and then slowly climbed back up to 0.8835. Missed that opportunity..

Oh ok...I was wondering for a second how you would manage to lose money on that...anyway, my mistake ;)

Britguy

Jul 25, 2007, 05:41 AM

I picked up some NZD/JPY at 96.20, so hopefully it will continue towards 100 before long.

Music_Producer

Jul 25, 2007, 10:13 AM

Barely escaped with 4 pips.. USD very strong this morning - for no logical reason. Probably a lot of profit taking after 2 weeks of getting sold. waiting to see if gbp hits 2.05

~Shard~

Jul 25, 2007, 10:27 AM

Yeah, no trade for me this morning, not enough movement. Looking forward to Friday's trade, hopefully that will move things.

Music_Producer

Jul 25, 2007, 05:04 PM

Nice 24 pips on nzd/usd trade - sweet drop.. rates came out as expected (8.25%) Also no more rate hikes seem likely.. don't know if nzd/usd will drop more.. but I've exited this position.

nhallmark

Jul 25, 2007, 05:16 PM

Nice 24 pips on nzd/usd trade - sweet drop.. rates came out as expected (8.25%) Also no more rate hikes seem likely.. don't know if nzd/usd will drop more.. but I've exited this position.

Good job! I didnt trade because I saw the spread flash 14/71 at one point so I just decided to stay out.

Also, Felix is a f%@king idiot...he gave a buy on SNW. I knew not to trust him on that because Ive seen what happens with NZD rate decisions before...and usually all rate decisions that come out as expected are more likely to drop than rise.

Anyway, MP check your PM

Music_Producer

Jul 25, 2007, 05:33 PM

Good job! I didnt trade because I saw the spread flash 14/71 at one point so I just decided to stay out.

Also, Felix is a f%@king idiot...he gave a buy on SNW. I knew not to trust him on that because Ive seen what happens with NZD rate decisions before...and usually all rate decisions that come out as expected are more likely to drop than rise.

Anyway, MP check your PM

He gave a buy?? On an expected hike? Lol.. the only time a buy should be carried out is if there is an unexpected rate hike.. never on an expected one. Geez.. I wonder how many of his followers lost money on this one :eek:

Also, finally figured out (a little too late) why gbp/usd went down on bad US home sales.. because apparently the median price of homes has increased for the first time in a year. Oooh.. man, US home sellers are crazy.. they want the highest profit in a stagnating market.

Just checked my pm.. will get back to the dealer about the yamahas, and send you the invoice tomorrow.

nhallmark

Jul 25, 2007, 06:06 PM

Yeah, his logic was that the rate hike wasn't fully priced in...and it did jump up for a split second but not long enough to get in and out with a profit.

Music_Producer

Jul 26, 2007, 09:08 AM

Weirdest day today.. huge selloff in the pound.. got 30 pips shorting gbp/usd on the UK home price report.. it was a move that took about 3 hours.

Then comes US Durable orders report.. news was terrible for the US$.. pound spiked up by 10 pips and then *bam* back to where it jumped from.. and stayed there. I got out for a -2 pip loss.. can't quite imagine what the hell prevented it from going up. And then it dropped :confused:

I'm guessing that the bad news in the UK and an overbought pound is finally starting to take effect - or maybe this is all just profit taking.. since this is the last week for all inst. traders.. and they probably want to end it in a profit.

Let's see what the new home sales report does.. I would be very careful trading this today.. it seems everyone's expecting a great US GDP report tomorrow.. and so the $ is extremely strong. And check out the JPY pairs.. they're getting fried.

Britguy

Jul 26, 2007, 03:02 PM

Got stopped on nzd/jpy at breakeven. Thank goodness, as it plummented 350 pips afterwards. Very dangerous marketplace at the moment.

Music_Producer

Jul 26, 2007, 03:53 PM

Very dangerous to trade right now.. I'm waiting for Tokyo to open.. GBP/JPY has the potential to drop 1000 pips.. it's happened before. I would just hate to be in at the wrong time.. in the wrong direction!

Music_Producer

Jul 27, 2007, 02:59 AM

Unbelievable day.. I shorted gbp/jpy at 241.86 earlier this afternoon after I woke up from a nap.. and then it went up.. all the way up. I closed my position at a 200 pip loss. Then at 244 I decided to short the hell out of it since it was showing signs of struggling.. also, european stocks were to fall again.. and gbp/jpy fell all the way back to 241.65.. so I recovered my losses and made some good money.

Hell, it left with me a good headache though. I am NOT entering these trades again :eek: It's like standing in front of a train.. moves down 600 pips.. up 300.. down 400.. sheesh!

I can't believe AUD/JPY is languishing at 101.79 right now.. when all these carry traders abandon ship.. they really do so in a synchronized manner!!

~Shard~

Jul 27, 2007, 03:06 AM

What's that I hear? Now's a good time to buy into the carry trade, you say? :p ;) :D

Music_Producer

Jul 27, 2007, 03:15 AM

What's that I hear? Now's a good time to buy into the carry trade, you say? :p ;) :D

Lol.. let's see how this works out. If the 'risk aversion' fizzles out by monday.. all these jpy pairs will be back up 600-800 pips. Heck, that could even happen today. All I know is.. I'm ready for another sleepless night ;)

nhallmark

Jul 27, 2007, 03:30 AM

Music_Producer

Jul 27, 2007, 03:42 AM

Damn...Ive been scalping EUR/JPY since 5pm today....made 50 pips, lost 10 out of 7 trades.

Im going to sleep!

Oh yeah, MP will you glance at EUR/JPY on currenex and tell me what spreads your getting...I know its variable, just what the range is around this time of day.

Nathan, I've been watching it for the last few minutes - spread ranges from 1 to 2 pips. Spread on gbp/jpy has been strange - from 2 to 6 at times. I don't know if I'll be able to sleep..

Britguy

Jul 27, 2007, 05:54 AM

Mp,

Just about to complete my cnx forms. Can you tell me roughly what % of time you get filled on the spike with limit orders?

Regards,

Britguys

nhallmark

Jul 27, 2007, 12:54 PM

Nathan, I've been watching it for the last few minutes - spread ranges from 1 to 2 pips. Spread on gbp/jpy has been strange - from 2 to 6 at times. I don't know if I'll be able to sleep..

Thanks man...dukascopy is giving me between 2-3 sometimes 4, and rarely 1 pip.

How much are your commisions? I know you said but I forgot :p

Music_Producer

Jul 27, 2007, 11:59 PM

Nathan, cnx commissions are $25 per million traded.. but that varies depending on the amount of deposit and the volume of trades on a monthly basis.

Britguy, I would say 70% of my limit orders go through on spikes.. but on volatile reports I don' bother to use limit orders, because I know they just won't go through.

As far as the current jpy pairs situation goes.. I was waiting for the DOW to drop this morning, but I was so sleepy that I went off to bed at 8.30 am pst. After that, apparently, the dow did drop.. and so gbpjpy dropped almost a 100 pips :mad: All the action always happens as soon as i leave lol.

What do you guys think is going to happen as soon as the weekend is over? There might be a retracement, but in the long term, it still looks like a drop for jpy pairs.. too risky to make any predictions or to get in. I've seen gbp/jpy move up by 200 pips.. and then down by 150.. in a matter of minutes.

Let's see if the world stock markets stabilize on monday.. any signs that they are ok and we should see a retracement on gbp/jpy and other pairs.

nhallmark

Jul 29, 2007, 08:46 PM

MP, were you watching a dow chart or were you waiting on news about it?

Music_Producer

Aug 1, 2007, 09:00 PM

MP, were you watching a dow chart or were you waiting on news about it?

Nathan, I was just checking yahoo finance and refreshing the page every few seconds. How've you been.. all of you.. I was out of town.. in San Diego, just got home. Feels good to be back :)

UK interest rate decision tonight.. watch out for any surprises, although at this stage I doubt they will raise. If they do, GU and GBP/JPY will be going through the roof.

As for other reports, I want to wait for this market volatility to calm down a bit. Too many reports of hedge funds going bankrupts, credit tightening, carry trade unwinding going on.. not a good atmosphere to trade. You might see a small spike, and then some crazy action.

Looks like jpy pairs are taking a little breather.. but I think the action is far from over.

Shard.. remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes.

Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:

OceanView

Aug 1, 2007, 11:36 PM

remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes.

Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:

It's called greed.
Nothing motivates men like money.
I am sure they made plenty of money in the hey days when they charged $15K-$25K per loan to unsuspecting buyers who otherwise could not qualify for a loan.
They are getting what they deserve, after all, they did have a hand in creating this situation.

~Shard~

Aug 2, 2007, 12:31 AM

Shard.. remember Amaranth? Same thing happened to Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, etc. How in the world these guys can invest more than 80% of their portfolio in a single industry (subprimes) is beyond the imagination. Nice, they keep repeating the same mistakes.

Can you imagine going from being a solid company to bankruptcy in a few days :eek:

Yeah, I totally hear ya. Scary stuff, yet not surprising (unfortunately). It's the nature of the beast... :o

Even more reason we need to set up our fund and show 'em how it's really done. ;) :cool:

Music_Producer

Aug 3, 2007, 09:30 AM

Bear Sterns.. you guys need me to improve your portfolio ;) I got 60 pips on the NFP today.. didn't trade the spike at all.. waited for the retracement.. came in nice and smooth.. eur/usd fell from 1.3720 to 1.3706.. got in.. and exited after 20 pips.

Did that 2 more times.. it even went down to 1.3702 at one point.. and went up all the way to 1.3725. NFP was bad, and unemployment rate went up by 0.1% as well.

Let's see how the stock markets perform - I wanted to short GBP/JPY .. good thing I didn't.. stupid thing shot up in the last few minutes. I have a feeling it's going to drop later during the day.. but you never know.. that thing is seriously unpredictable.

Music_Producer

Aug 3, 2007, 09:48 AM

Oh great.. EUR/USD is now 1.3750. Always moves when I exit my trade :rolleyes:

Edit : - AND GBP/JPY dropped a 100 pips. Now if only I can follow my own advice..

mrhurley1

Aug 8, 2007, 10:15 AM

hi,

Iim very interested in forex and really want to start tradfing..i have started to read as much as i can etc and set up demo accounts..however i have a mac and was wandering what the best forex sites to use are with a mac and what charting software i can run..as meta trader is not available on the mac.. music producer you seem to know your stuff...any advice?

cheerz

~Shard~

Aug 8, 2007, 12:45 PM

Welcome to our thread mrhurley1 and the wonderful world of forex! :D :cool: Unfortunately there are no good clients for Mac - the best you'll find are Java-based versions which will run in web browsers, but they aren't the most reliable in my opinion - I'm thinking of Oanda specifically. Unfortunately, I have to use my PC for all my trading.

Speaking of trading, I took a bit of a risk last night and entered the carry trade after the Aussie news. Entered AUDJPY at 101.81 and woke up this morning to find my TP hit at 102.41 for a 60 pip gain on a $100K lot! Nice... ;) :cool:

Slow news day today though it seems...

nhallmark

Aug 8, 2007, 12:46 PM

mrhurley1, oanda runs on a mac. I like their charts but I wouldnt suggest trading with them.

Their site is oanda.com

Also, if youre just looking for charts, prorealtime.com is web based and it runs in safari.

As for trading platforms, dukascopy works on a mac(web based) and I think MP said currenex will now run in safari....both of those have high minimum deposits though.

Hope that helps,
Nathan

Edit: Shard, I guess we posted at the same time :p

OceanView

Aug 8, 2007, 01:47 PM

Shard,

Glad to hear someone is still making some money.

I've been watching on the side lines and playing with a demo account on some new strategy myself. MP's comments on playing after the initial spike got me thinking and so I am trying to implement it.

Hope it works cause I want to get one of the new iMacs with the 24" screen. :D

~Shard~

Aug 8, 2007, 03:22 PM

Edit: Shard, I guess we posted at the same time :p

Yep - and we posted pretty much the same thing too! Ah well, no surprise - as they say, great minds think a like... ;) :D

Shard,

Glad to hear someone is still making some money.

I've been watching on the side lines and playing with a demo account on some new strategy myself. MP's comments on playing after the initial spike got me thinking and so I am trying to implement it.

Hope it works cause I want to get one of the new iMacs with the 24" screen. :D

Yeah, I've been either too busy lately or not hitting any good trades myself as of late. Hopefully things will start to pick up again. I, too, am going to try Music_Producer's strategy. Since I am still stuck with CMC, it might be the only way to trade due to their behavior as of late wrt news trading. :rolleyes:

~Shard~

Aug 8, 2007, 09:44 PM

7 pips off the Aussie report. The #s weren't quite as good as expectations, but still better than previous report. And, the unemployment rate was forecasted to rise by 0.1% however it remained constant.

I'll take it! :cool:

mrhurley1

Aug 9, 2007, 06:10 AM

~Shard~

Aug 9, 2007, 08:20 AM

No trade on Canadian housing starts... will be watching the next batch of news in 10 minutes...

thanks guys...ive been playin with oanda but i cant figure out how to set fibonacci numbers on there charts does anyone know?

Sorry, can't help ya on that one, I have never used fib at all with my trading. When I do technical trading (as opposed to news trading) I have other indicators which I rely on for signals such as MACD and the like.

also where do you guys get your currrency news from and know when to trade etc

The majority of us use Trade the News (TTN). They have a free 14-day trial I believe. Great service. If you are serious about trading the news, you can subscribe to the Bloomberg terminal for $1800/month. :eek: :p ;)

As for the news releases, you can find a calendar on Oanda's site right here (http://www.fxtrade.com/resources/) under "Decision Support". :cool:

Music_Producer

Aug 9, 2007, 09:02 AM

400 pips today. My best achievement ever - and GBP/JPY is still dropping. It all started at 11.45 pm PST when BNP PAribas announced that they were freezing 3 funds.. confirming that the effects of the US subprime meltdown has spread to Europe. Then another fund company stated that they lost $180 million or so.. european markets plunged.

GBP/JPY is still dropping.. US markets open soon.. in all probability, DOW will crash as well. I've exited my position though.. I think it has dropped enough for today.. but you never know.. it could go 200 pips lower.

Shard, I traded aussie report today.. bagged about 8 pips on it.. it was too slow to respond. Then on NZD report I got about 5 pips.. nothing great.. but man, trading GBP/JPY is something else. Just a word of caution Shard, don't get into any carry trades right now (like you bought aud/jpy) Markets are still very unstabe.. very volatile.. if any more banks come out with reports of losses.. trust me.. there will be another 400-500 pip drop.

Keep checking bloomberg.com.. their news are usually delayed.. I think TTN updates it earlier.. but be on the lookout.

~Shard~

Aug 9, 2007, 09:30 AM

Great work Music_Producer, well done! And yeah, I'll be staying out of this mess for a little while. ;)

... And there goes the opening bell - should be a wild ride today... :cool:

nhallmark

Aug 9, 2007, 01:41 PM

thanks guys...ive been playin with oanda but i cant figure out how to set fibonacci numbers on there charts does anyone know?

also where do you guys get your currrency news from and know when to trade etc

First break off the chart into a new window(the button in the top right hand corner) then drag your mouse over the buttons that are now in the top right hand corner of the new chart and the mouseover on one will say "draw advanced trendline".

Click on that and click fibonnaci retracement. Now when you move your mouse in the chart window it will appear as crosshairs.

Click on your high or low and drag it to the other and you should see it appear.

Hope that helps,
Nathan

Music_Producer

Aug 10, 2007, 06:29 AM

If you guys are going to trade the Canadian employment report.. please be very cautious. Markets are crazy right now.. FTSE's down 175.. DOW might do another -200 or -300 day.. hopefully it won't.

Music_Producer

Aug 10, 2007, 08:09 AM

You guys are missing out on all the action.. hope you are trading GBP/JPY.. it fell another 300 pips today.. might go more.. depends on markets (DOW looks set to crash.. FTSE is now 212 points down) Add bad news - Deutsche bank funds are down 30%.. SEC starts investigating hedge fund losses and mortgage companies, etc etc.

Not to sound overly exaggerative.. but if ECB/Feds don't do anything to calm the markets down.. it's very possible to see this thing go down to 224 or lower.

~Shard~

Aug 10, 2007, 12:56 PM

Damn, I've just been too busy lately! I'll have to free up some more time next week and capitlaize if it's not too late! Thanks for the head's up Music_Producer! :) :cool:

Music_Producer

Aug 13, 2007, 06:21 AM

Shorted everything I had out of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY when the PPI came in at -0.5%. For the first 20 minutes or so.. nothing much happened.. and then the drop began. I got 100 pips on GBP/JPY (when that pair moves, it MOVES) and 40 on GBP/USD. :D

Still has the potential to go down more because of 'Russian sellers' in the market.. but I'm out for now.

nhallmark

Aug 13, 2007, 10:41 AM

Good job, MP! Im still learning but last week UK industrial production came out as expected but it was still way lower than previous...no spike but then 30 minutes later GBP/USD dropped 80 pips.

Im still catching on to it and trying to figure out whats going to cause a move, etc. but it looks more consistent than spike trading and a lot more pips.

OceanView

Aug 13, 2007, 11:15 AM

Music_Producer

Aug 13, 2007, 06:45 PM

Yep nathan, if the news is bad enough and there is no move.. it will move eventually. Just keep an eye out for any other news at the same time. PPI came out way worse than expected.. and GU and GJ actually went up 20 pips during the first few minutes! It was just a temporary spike though, as gu and gj were heavily sold during the london session.

Sometimes there is a price consolidation for 30 minutes to an hour (usually 30 minutes) and then the price starts moving fast.

Ocean.. on GJ trades.. that pair moves 100-200 pips in a minute.. so my target is usually 100 pips on gbp/jpy. On gbp/usd it's 20-30 pips but the ppi # was terrible.. so i stayed in a bit longer. Plus, on oanda's news feed I read that some european+russian sellers were short on gbp/jpy.

So it's a combination of everything - bad ppi, risk aversion atmosphere (people already selling gbp/jpy and gbp/usd) and those russian sellers.

If the markets were stable i.e. none of this carry trade unwinding or subprime fears were going on.. gbp/usd would have probably dropped 40 pips and then come back up.. GBP/JPY wouldn't even have been affected by the news.

Music_Producer

Aug 13, 2007, 07:24 PM

I completely forgot about the NZ sales report while I was posting above :rolleyes: Anyway, I got in after the spike.. sales were pretty terrible - so I ended up with 12 pips. Took a little long for it to drop from 0.7364 to 0.7350 .. but patience pays off.

Next is tomorrow's UK CPI report - if it comes out worse than expected, watch out GBP/USD!

Britguy

Aug 14, 2007, 05:12 AM

That was the mutha of all reports - UK CPI. Got 80pips. Sweet.

Music_Producer

Aug 14, 2007, 05:37 AM

That was the mutha of all reports - UK CPI. Got 80pips. Sweet.

Nice! I got 65 myself.. shorted a huge lot though.. so it was way more than I expected. I wanted to short earlier - had a feeling cpi would be really bad.. but obviously that would be a totally risky move.

If you also see nzd/usd.. it went down to 0.7298.. about 40-50 pips more after I exited.. but it took a couple of hours. That's the nice thing about nzd/usd (if the reports wildly deviate)

Macmaniac

Aug 14, 2007, 02:03 PM

Britguy

Aug 16, 2007, 04:55 AM

MP,

Did you get in on the spike at Capforex on retail sales? If so, can you tell me the rate you got?

Regards,

Britguy

Music_Producer

Aug 16, 2007, 07:02 AM

MP,

Did you get in on the spike at Capforex on retail sales? If so, can you tell me the rate you got?

Regards,

Britguy

Hey Britguy, I didn't trade this one today.. went for a movie 'Rush hour 3' with the wife.. came back to see that GU retail sales were terrific.. but it was all due to discounted offerings. I thought that would be a good chance to short GBP/JPY.. but didn't.. thinking it was too low anyway..

Now the damn thing dropped 300 pips in a few seconds. :eek: Did you get in on the sales report? I want to get in the GBP/JPY trade.. but I'm waiting for the US housing starts reports.. if they come out bad.. the DOW is doomed and so are the carries (well they are anyway)

Music_Producer

Aug 16, 2007, 07:08 AM

I have been reading through this forum for the last few days, and I have been browsing through babypips.com and I have a few questions.

First I am new to FOREX, my friend has been explaining a little bit to me, and this thread has helped a lot but I have a couple FAQs for you guys.

Second, I don't plan on doing any real FOREX trading until I have done at least 2 months on a trial account.

So here goes:

1. Who do you recommend I use for the trial, and for actual trading.
2. How much $ should I start with, I am a college student so I don't have a lot of free capital ($250-$500) (or if I don't have enough maybe I should wait a few years)
3. What trader software do you use, and what news software do you reccomend
4. Should I be starting this young, or should I wait a bit till I have a more steady income.
5. What is the lowest $ amount I can trade with,(not leverage wise) like can I be trading for pennies or $1-20 orders?

1. Try Oanda for demo trading - for actual trading they're good too (except during news events) You can trade as little as 1 pip. I started with making 3-4 cents of profit per day.

2. Start with $50.. yes.. not more than that.

3. For news, TTN is a good place to start (tradethenews.com) but first check the oanda news ticker.. and see how currency pairs move depending on the deivation of the reports.

4. You're never too old or too young to start! Don't invest all your money in forex though.. I repeat.. do not make that mistake. It's pretty easy to wipe out your whole account in a few seconds. I recommend starting with $50. Once you make that to $100.. then make that into $200 and so on. If it becomes zero.. you can always deposit an additional $50.. instead of putting in $300 and blowing it all up.

5. Yes, with Oanda you can trade with really small lots.. that's what I love about them. Most brokers give you a 400:1 leverage.. they want you to trade with a huge margin.. because 99% of the time, you will lose - and they stand to gain from that.

Britguy

Aug 16, 2007, 07:25 AM

Music_Producer

Aug 16, 2007, 07:32 AM

No didnt get in on capforex. my limit order wasnt filled. I shorted aud/jpy last night. left a 100pip take profit. It then moved 600pips from that level. Cant believe it really. A very volatile month. Got to be careful out there.

Yup, I was short on AUD/USD.. today the Aussie stock markets collapsed (I was short because of the Rams mortgage group declaring that they can't refinance 6 billion $ worth of loans) I got out after a 75 pip profit - didn't want to get greedy.

You'd be shocked if I told you.. but.. the current volatility is nothing. In 1998 .. and earlier years.. GJ has dropped to a max of 11,000 pips. This is just 2,000 pips.. and there is no way of determining when this will end. Just keep an eye out for any negative reports - related to credit, liquidity, etc. At this time, GBP +ve reports will bring temporary relief.. and then the selling will resume.

Edit - Britguy, just a word of caution - don't try and trade retracements. Remember that right now the trend for all JPY pairs (and aud/usd, nzd/usd) is down. They may bounce off some key levels - but you never know how fast they will swing right back down. If you do want to trade retracements, try trading with a small lot. I don't like the fact that capital forex has a minimum trade requirement.. there are times when I wish I could trade only 100,000 .. just because I'm not too sure what a pair is going to do.

Britguy

Aug 16, 2007, 09:57 AM

11,000 pips - jesus. Very dangerous crosses to play. MP, on Cnx can you tell me what reports you use a limit order on and what for a mkt order? How many pips do you get slipped on mkt orders, typically?

I think today has a capitulation feel to it. But I could be wrong.

Britguy

Aug 16, 2007, 12:51 PM

I have been watching JPY trades today. It really is amazing to watch. Its like non-farm payroll action, but going on for hours. Definately be selling rallies. Not for the faint-hearted.

~Shard~

Aug 16, 2007, 01:02 PM

My Nasdaq short is finally paying off big time - I'm loving this. :cool:

My stocks are getting hammered of course, but over 60% of my portfolio is in cash right now, as I knew a correction was imminent. All of this action just results in buying opportunities for the fall - again, I'm loving this. :D

Music_Producer

Aug 16, 2007, 06:28 PM

Grabbed a quick 200 pips on GBP/JPY after the disappointing housing starts report. At first, GJ didn't move for quite some time - but then the drop began.

As soon as I got out, it kept falling further - another 300 pips!

Here is what I was shocked at though - people kept yelling 'Retracement now! Go long! go long!' even before the housing starts came out. People, fundamentals move the markets! Technical indicators (fibs, pivot points, etc) are only good at showing where potential price can bounce or go through.

Why did the DOW collapse 450 points and then all of a sudden jump back up? Because there were rumors that the Fed was going to hold an emergency meeting to reduce rates.. as soon as that rumor came out, the DOW jumped up.. and so did GJ (by more than 600 pips!)

This whole carry trade collapse started with fundamentals - bad news, banks freezing funds, etc.. let's see how far it goes.

Macmaniac

Aug 17, 2007, 12:29 PM

1. Try Oanda for demo trading - for actual trading they're good too (except during news events) You can trade as little as 1 pip. I started with making 3-4 cents of profit per day.

2. Start with $50.. yes.. not more than that.

3. For news, TTN is a good place to start (tradethenews.com) but first check the oanda news ticker.. and see how currency pairs move depending on the deivation of the reports.

4. You're never too old or too young to start! Don't invest all your money in forex though.. I repeat.. do not make that mistake. It's pretty easy to wipe out your whole account in a few seconds. I recommend starting with $50. Once you make that to $100.. then make that into $200 and so on. If it becomes zero.. you can always deposit an additional $50.. instead of putting in $300 and blowing it all up.

5. Yes, with Oanda you can trade with really small lots.. that's what I love about them. Most brokers give you a 400:1 leverage.. they want you to trade with a huge margin.. because 99% of the time, you will lose - and they stand to gain from that.

Thanks very much for your advice! Time to start demo trading, ugh I don't want to look at my pc:(

n-abounds

Aug 20, 2007, 02:15 AM

Hey since this is the only thread where financially-minded people tend to hang out I hope you don't mind an off-topic question about margins...
If my stock's price is $53.5, and I invest $3531 (and another $3531 on margin) for a total investment of $7062, and I buy 132 shares...at what price will I get a margin call (assuming a maintenance margin of 30% and no commissions/margin interest charges)?

And now for the on-topic question... What does GJ stand for?

joshmv

Aug 31, 2007, 11:48 AM

I was doing a little search on google for forex information, and I somehow ended up here at one of my favorite forums!

Anyways, I'm only on page 11, but I've learned a lot so far, is anybody still keeping up with this?

Josh

joshmv

Sep 1, 2007, 01:07 AM

Bueller? Guess not

~Shard~

Sep 1, 2007, 03:28 PM

Hi Josh. I'm not sure where the others are as I can only speak for myself, but I've been extremely busy lately with work and other summer activities. Honestly haven't been trading much, and when I have been, it's been more on the stock and commodity markets. My forex trading will pick up again in the fall, and I'll be posting more frequently in this thread once it does.

Not sure where everyone else is, but it's always necessary to take a break from things every once and a while. ;)

I'm glad you are finding the tread informative and interesting and if you ever have any questions, post them and hopefully one of us will be around to answer them sooner or later. :o

Cheers,
Shard

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 12:25 AM

Hello all! Im new to forex and came across this thread and was actually quite surprised to see so much activity on it in a mac thread. I signed up to get my two cents in even though I dont own a mac :eek: . I owned a ibook though and I have much respect for the platform.

I just signed up to chat with you guys about it. I mine as well get an account anyways cause im going to grab me the new iMac so I suppose I can discuss that as well. Im looking to get a ventrilo set up for people who are new to forex. I figure more heads are better than 1 and looking at the amount of activity here compared to other forums I figure you guys are welcome. If I get enough people interested you guys can PM me and I can give you the IP. Id give it here but I dont want no one spamming the vent.

Music_producer your also more than welcome to come ;). I havent read this whole thread yet but Ill be getting to it. Who would've though forex would reintroduce me to the world of macs :apple:

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 01:44 AM

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 03:48 AM

Glad to have you, looks like we're going to put some new blood into the thread.

Congrats on the new iMac, I'm working on a 24" (last version) and couldn't be happier.

Yea its funny after reading a lot of forums even ones dedicated to actual forex trading this seemed to be the most in depth and informative. I have gotten a chance to read more into it and can't stop reading.

Im a PC guy well as far as I build my own computers and went to college for it(dont hurt me ;) ) and I hear a lot of mac bashing and I must say you guys seem to be as mature and intelligent as the rumors go. Take a ride over at anandtech.com off topic forum and get an idea of what im talking about :D

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 11:27 AM

Yea its funny after reading a lot of forums even ones dedicated to actual forex trading this seemed to be the most in depth and informative. I have gotten a chance to read more into it and can't stop reading.

Im a PC guy well as far as I build my own computers and went to college for it(dont hurt me ;) ) and I hear a lot of mac bashing and I must say you guys seem to be as mature and intelligent as the rumors go. Take a ride over at anandtech.com off topic forum and get an idea of what im talking about :D

Welcome to the thread, hopefully we can get that group setup, I think it would be great.

Are you trading anything today or tomorrow?

AUD has some pretty important announcements coming out, I hope to trade the GDP announcement later on tonight.

~Shard~

Sep 3, 2007, 11:36 AM

Welcome to you too ctrackstar, it's always great to have fresh ideas and new traders in the thread.

Yes, I'll be watching the AUD GDP announcement tonight. It will be interesting to see if it is indeed going to decrease m/m as predicted and if so if that will impact the carry at all.

Hopefully things will pick up this fall and I will have more time to get back into forex trading. As I said above, my focus right now has been more on the stocks and commodities side of things. I will try to be a bit more active than I have been lately, but we'll have to see... :o

Again, welcome to you and Josh and I hope some of our other long time regulars (nathan, Music Producer, OceanView etc.) will be back soon as well. :cool:

nhallmark

Sep 3, 2007, 12:51 PM

Hey guys!

I haven't posted for awhile because Ive been busy learning to scalp as I dont have any way to news trade anymore.

Hey since this is the only thread where financially-minded people tend to hang out I hope you don't mind an off-topic question about margins...
If my stock's price is $53.5, and I invest $3531 (and another $3531 on margin) for a total investment of $7062, and I buy 132 shares...at what price will I get a margin call (assuming a maintenance margin of 30% and no commissions/margin interest charges)?

And now for the on-topic question... What does GJ stand for?

Im not sure about your stock question, but G/J stands for GBP/JPY which stands for Great Britain Pound/Japanese Yen

Welcome to the thread, hopefully we can get that group setup, I think it would be great.

Are you trading anything today or tomorrow?

AUD has some pretty important announcements coming out, I hope to trade the GDP announcement later on tonight.

Who are you trading with right now and are you trading live?

I dont even pay attention to news anymore as I cant trade it so Im scalping 5 second charts on oanda now...still learning.

I'll get back to posting here in the next week or so.

Hope everyone's doing ok :)

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 01:13 PM

I haven't gotten far enough into the thread but does anyone use technical analysis? It seems that mostly fundamental is used and it looks as though thats been a great success. Im going to school of pipsology right now and I have to really say Ive been through a lot of sources and have even read some books at BnN but babypips.com has been by far the greatest. Im not all the way through but the information seems easy and in depth. I also like the writing style.

Also let me guys know if you want me to get that ventrilo set up. It is Mac compatible and is a free download. I didnt want to pay the bill if no one got interested:
http://www.ventrilo.com/download.php

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 01:27 PM

Also I saw for news that tradethenews.com was used I was wondering if anyone used RSS feeds? On another forex forum I got a good RSS feed setup from about 5 different sources. Ive been using it and it isnt bad the feeder I use sing a bell and pops up to give me the latest news although I don't know how timely they are. Let me know if you want the feeds,

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 02:26 PM

Hey guys!

I haven't posted for awhile because Ive been busy learning to scalp as I dont have any way to news trade anymore.

Who are you trading with right now and are you trading live?

I dont even pay attention to news anymore as I cant trade it so Im scalping 5 second charts on oanda now...still learning.

I'll get back to posting here in the next week or so.

Hope everyone's doing ok :)

I think we are both in about the same boat. I'm still using my Oanda practice account, but I'm in the middle of confirming my real money account, so I should be live later this week. I'm also learning how to scalp, so hopefully we can talk some strategy. Have any tips?

I haven't gotten far enough into the thread but does anyone use technical analysis? It seems that mostly fundamental is used and it looks as though thats been a great success. Im going to school of pipsology right now and I have to really say Ive been through a lot of sources and have even read some books at BnN but babypips.com has been by far the greatest. Im not all the way through but the information seems easy and in depth. I also like the writing style.

Also let me guys know if you want me to get that ventrilo set up. It is Mac compatible and is a free download. I didnt want to pay the bill if no one got interested:
http://www.ventrilo.com/download.php

I'm planning on doing some technical analysis, especially if I'm doing some carry trades with the yen, my goal would be to follow technical triggers, and if their wrong, I would still be making the interest.

I think it would be awesome to get Ventrilo set up, that way we could talk right up to the announcement and decide which way to go. It COULD even progress to where a group pitches in for Bloomberg and that way we could share the information seamlessly. That's pretty far fetched, but it could happen.

nhallmark

Sep 3, 2007, 02:40 PM

I think we are both in about the same boat. I'm still using my Oanda practice account, but I'm in the middle of confirming my real money account, so I should be live later this week. I'm also learning how to scalp, so hopefully we can talk some strategy. Have any tips?

I'm planning on doing some technical analysis, especially if I'm doing some carry trades with the yen, my goal would be to follow technical triggers, and if their wrong, I would still be making the interest.

I think it would be awesome to get Ventrilo set up, that way we could talk right up to the announcement and decide which way to go. It COULD even progress to where a group pitches in for Bloomberg and that way we could share the information seamlessly. That's pretty far fetched, but it could happen.

Are you aware of oanda's spreads during news? I did good on demo with them back in december but as soon as I went live...20 pip spreads on every report.

That's why we were all using CMC for awhile but they started playing games also. Music_Producer moved on to currenex which seems to be the only option left but their minimum is $50k.

...thats why Im scalping now...based on this method : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38436

And be careful about piling in a carry trade right now with all the subprime issues still unclear.

Also, read this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1446922#post1446922

It was posted about a week before CMC stopped letting me in. I dont know that its over because I think MP is still news trading on currenex but its interesting anyway.

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 02:55 PM

Yea ill get the ventrilo set up. Ill hand out IPs to the "active" people and also upon request will give it to people who PM me. You are more than welcome to bring your friends or whatever. Ill start with a 30 user as I have some others that are learning with me.

I haven't been on the Mac platform for a while but perhaps even setting up something there. The cool thing about getting the ventrilo set up is people can have there charts up and discuss. A news item hits you can talk about it. I just think why go at it alone there could be so much you miss and I mean were talking money.

Like I said Im not all that familiar with the Mac format and what it offers. Im sure theres something built in that blows away ventrilo as well as has video functions, some real time chat function, and scratches your back but the good thing about vent is the simple fact you can network both Mac and PC people(maybe even some linux :D )

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 03:05 PM

Are you aware of oanda's spreads during news? I did good on demo with them back in december but as soon as I went live...20 pip spreads on every report.

That's why we were all using CMC for awhile but they started playing games also. Music_Producer moved on to currenex which seems to be the only option left but their minimum is $50k.

...thats why Im scalping now...based on this method : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38436

And be careful about piling in a carry trade right now with all the subprime issues still unclear.

Also, read this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1446922#post1446922

It was posted about a week before CMC stopped letting me in. I dont know that its over because I think MP is still news trading on currenex but its interesting anyway.

Thanks for the tips, and the threads, I'll be reading through them soon.

I actually just bookmarked CMC a little while ago, and was wondering if they were still reliable with their tight spreads. We all wish Oanda would stay tight on a consistent basis, but I guess until I find a reliable place, I'll have to stay there, and if I see the spread widen a lot, I'll just have to wait it out and try to scalp off of the moves once it calms down.

Who would you currently recommend other than curranex?

Also, if we want a forum, I have a small one on my website and could add another section very easily. You can look at it here: http://www.mycreditstrategy.com/forum

If you guys would like one before we get Ventrilo set up, just let me know.

nhallmark

Sep 3, 2007, 03:40 PM

Who would you currently recommend other than curranex?

There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though.

I checked out your website...I actually did an "app spree" back in june and I got declined on 12 cards with a score above 700.

Im 21 so its probably my lack of credit history(2 year old car, 3 $500 cards-8 months old)

I got 17 inquiries on my credit from that, but I learned a lot in the process lol.

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 03:53 PM

nhallmark

Sep 3, 2007, 05:06 PM

I learned at an earlier age too. Im 22 now but im glad I learned when I did. I own my own business now and pretty much have to pay cash for everything. Although I do get credit on some things Id rather just pay for it and not have to worry about it.

What's your business if you don't mind saying?

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 05:26 PM

There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though.

I checked out your website...I actually did an "app spree" back in june and I got declined on 12 cards with a score above 700.

Im 21 so its probably my lack of credit history(2 year old car, 3 $500 cards-8 months old)

I got 17 inquiries on my credit from that, but I learned a lot in the process lol.

Sometimes its a mystery why they like some people, and end up declining others, but I'm guessing your "average length of account" had a lot to do with that.

I actually created the site because it has been a hobby of mine for a while, and I was looking for a subject for my first website. There was a lot of people trying it, and didn't know what they were doing, so they ended up ruining their credit score. I hope it's helping out some beginners now.

I learned at an earlier age too. Im 22 now but im glad I learned when I did. I own my own business now and pretty much have to pay cash for everything. Although I do get credit on some things Id rather just pay for it and not have to worry about it.

That's the main reason why I got into the credit card balance transfer game, I'd rather just pay cash for things I need, so when I figured out that I could make some easy cash with my credit, I figured why not. I'm usually making over $1000 a month just in interest.

Anyways, that's a subject for another thread, if anybody would like a seperate forum for our mac forex traders, just let me know.

I'm still excited to do some trading tonight

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 05:59 PM

What's your business if you don't mind saying?

Promotions and such. Not the most interesting business but it brings a decent pay :D

Music_Producer

Sep 3, 2007, 06:22 PM

Good to see everyone active around here :p Hey Nathan, I tried a little technical trading (on my oanda account - with small lots) Had a few profits.. but then again some were losses.

Anyway, last week I traded the Aussie retail sales and trade balance report.. both were good.. and I bought aud/usd. Took the pair more than an hour or two to finally go up.. and up it went - by a 100 pips :)

I was quite tempted to jump into trading GJ when it was bouncing up and down.. the easiest way to trade that was.. any time there was a huge spike (or fall) it would eventually retrace to the 5SMA and then bounce right back. Again, since I'm not too confident with that strategy I just traded with minimal lots.. but found that it worked all the time.

The best trade was the Bernanke+Bush speech. Almost everyone at forexfactory.com was in a long trade on GJ.. because everyone assumed that both of them were going to calm the markets. Bernanke started with no mention of rate cuts.. and stated that the housing sector is pretty bad with possibility of it worsening, etc etc.

I shorted GJ and it tanked by a good 120 pips. It then stabilized before Bush's speech.. but he didn't say much 'We won't bail out lenders, investors and speculators' that was all GJ needed to tank another 100 pips or so.

So that was some good fundamental trading.. remember, there are not only economic reports to trade fundamentally.. but also when it comes to GJ (due to the current risk scenario) any reports of a major bank or hedge fund shutting down creates huge moves in GJ. So be careful if you're in a trade.

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 06:23 PM

There's several...FXall, EBS, Reuters, BARX, and maybe Hotspot FXi...all of them have higher minimums than currenex though.

So what are you currently using, I'm guessing still CMC?

If I'm going to start scalping, or trading on the news, I need to find the best option for tight spreads, and quick execution, but without a crazy minimum. I'll obviously have to sacrifice something, but hopefully we'll find the best available anyways.

What is the favorite over at forexfactory? It sounded like a lot of those guys were getting really low spreads.

Josh

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 06:42 PM

Good to see you back MP!

Keep us updated on what your up to, you still need to guide some of us new guys:D

nhallmark

Sep 3, 2007, 06:51 PM

So what are you currently using, I'm guessing still CMC?

If I'm going to start scalping, or trading on the news, I need to find the best option for tight spreads, and quick execution, but without a crazy minimum. I'll obviously have to sacrifice something, but hopefully we'll find the best available anyways.

What is the favorite over at forexfactory? It sounded like a lot of those guys were getting really low spreads.

Josh

Im using MB. There's no way you could scalp with CMC...they have a strict policy against anyone making money lol.

With MB, the spreads are good, but you have to pay commissions, so when Im scalping I usually wait for the spread to go to zero before entering(which happens fairly often if the market is active)

There is no way in hell you can news trade with them though...you either get filled at the top of the spike with market orders or you never get filled if youre using limits.

joshmv

Sep 3, 2007, 10:55 PM

Thanks for the info, it looks like I'll probably stay Oanda, and might experiment with MB if I decide to do some scalping.

Did anybody trade the AUD GDP announcement? I would have, but I thought it was at 10:00 and it ended up being 9:30 so by the time I got on most of the action was done.

Looked like it would have been fun though, I'm guessing MP made some easy money on that one ;)

I may stay up for the CHF GDP announcement in a couple hours, but I'm not sure how that will move.

ctrackstar

Sep 3, 2007, 11:57 PM

Has anyone used:

http://www.interbankfx.com/

I was referred to that by someone who actually programs some of the stuff. I looked at there eco calender and saw that it was hosted by:

http://www.econoday.com/

Im assuming there structure is the same as the one you use music?

Looking at there calendar(http://www.interbankfx.com/News/EconomicCalendar.aspx) what events would you look at with wide eyes. I was actually surprised to see so much news because I heard of you talking about it but didnt know how much came out on a daily/weekly/monthly basis that was worth trading.

Also if people want I already have a ventrillo server up and running if you want to hop on and chat. I dont have the one that Ill dedicate to you guys. Just PM me though and Ill give you the IP.

joshmv

Sep 4, 2007, 09:38 AM

Anybody trading on all the US news this morning?

Music_Producer

Sep 5, 2007, 07:29 PM

Hey Josh.. hope you traded today :) Made some good pips on the UK Services PMI, the ADP report and the pending home sales report.

There was plenty of time and retracements to get in on these trades.. we eventually saw a 110 pip gain on gbp/usd because of pmi and disappointing ADP.. but that took a few hours to register.

Pending home sales report was a great one - I was watching GBP/JPY for that.. since it's most sensitive to any news about the US economy and news about the current risk environment.

I remember GJ was going up.. it hit 232.80 and as soon as pending home sales came out at -12% (lol) I shorted.. I got out at 232.20 since there was resistance there.. but it did dip up to 232.05.

Right now it's hovering at 232.50 or so.. nothing will happen till the London session. I'm really excited about the Sep 18 Fed meeting - I'm hoping they don't cut interest rates.. (and it looks like it although the markets are expecting a rate cut) If they don't cut.. I'll be shorting GBP/JPY with everything I have because I see it going in a free fall - 1000 to 2000 pips.

Be careful trading Aussie report today.. there's two of them.. employment change and unemployment report. Unemployment report usually comes out as expected.. but watch out for any changes.. dont trade the spike.. digest the news and trade accordingly.

Also remember that AUD/USD moves in a similar direction to all the carry pairs (GBP/JPY, USD/JPY etc) Since AUD/JPY is a big carry pair.. everytime that goes down.. AUD/USD is dragged down too. The current environment sucks for trading news at leisure.. it's great for trading GBP/JPY though.

ctrackstar

Sep 5, 2007, 09:19 PM

joshmv

Sep 5, 2007, 09:38 PM

Hey MP, I didn't actually trade today, but I was watching the charts when it happened.

Right now I'm learning a couple different methods, and that's taking away from my news watching, which I did for quite a while after originally reading through the thread. As you said, I think trading news has gotten really difficult for beginners, so I figured I better become fluent in a couple different strategies before putting my real money on the line.

I'm currently learning to trade with the long term trends correctly, swing trading with different indicators, and carry trading.

All of the things I'm learning will actually fit into one overall strategy, and anything I learn, including news trading, is going to help out with that in one way or another along the way.

By the time that interest rate decision comes out I will be trading with real money, so we will have to discuss that more as the time approaches.

Are you still just doing news trading, or are you expanding? I'm guessing you are experienced enough to know how to trade almost all of the news events at this point, but I've heard it's getting tough for even the most seasoned traders.

Thanks for your insight!

Music_Producer

Sep 5, 2007, 09:47 PM

Still sticking to fundamentals and news reports josh :)

I traded the aussie employment report right now.. it spiked up about 35 pips.. and then retraced to 0.822. I bought a huge lot.. sold it at 0.8230... 8 pips.. but 2 million lots so $1600 profit.

Notice how it's giving up all the gains.. because GJ is still heavy.. so is AJ (aud/jpy) If none of this carry trade unwinding business was going on.. aussie would have gone up a nice 80 pips or so.

I was even thinking of shorting aud/usd at the top.. and I should have.. considering that it's dropped to 0.8215.

Next trade will be UK interest rate decision - doubt they will do anything but I'll be ready in the event they do.

Music_Producer

Sep 5, 2007, 09:52 PM

ctrack.. technicals are good I guess.. but I don't use those. Somehow I always end up laughing at tech traders - a good example was today's pending home sales report. Most traders were long on GJ (since it was rising up as soon as the DOW opened) GJ shot from 232.30 to 232.60 and kept going up so everyone jumped in (candle has turned upward.. tech indicators etc)

And then home sales came in.. *wham* everyone's stop loss got hit. Lol.. sorry.. I can't help laughing.. but.. NEVER enter a trade based on technicals before a news report is due. You never know when it can go against you.

I am not entering any GJ or GU trades tonight until after the UK rate decision.. no matter how tempting. Check out forexfactory.com GJ thread.. everyone went short an hour ago.. (at 232.20 i think) .. it went down 20 pips.. and then went all the way up to 232.75.. hitting stop losses.

Whatever tech trading I've done.. I've had 50-50 chances of profit+loss. For me, personally, I don't like wasting my time waiting to see what happens. With fundamental reports.. I *know* what's going to happen

ctrackstar

Sep 5, 2007, 10:58 PM

Yea I heard about that as being a mistake when trading technicals and not looking at news. Also for people who would like to be able to decipher the news and what it actual means heres free MIT coursework:

http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/web/courses/courses/index.htm#Economics

I mean we dont all need deep understandings im sure but Im sure theres a lot of courses there that will help. Also from what I hear MIT is a good college but that can just be a rumor ;) .

I heard that knowing both fundamentals and technicals is good. I myself have dedicated myself to forex so I will have to master it one way or another. Eventually ill find my perfect system. I looked at forex once long ago but because of scams didnt get far. Luckily on one of my tech sites I met someone who was in it because he actually does auto trading and uses CPU power to crunch numbers. Hes a full time trader and actually wrote the program thats crunching. Ill just have pile up the books, watch the news and see what the chart does. Then one day ill find myself :cool:

ctrackstar

Sep 5, 2007, 11:02 PM

I also wanted to point out that there are more courses in that link. I just linked you the Economic ones. So if you wanted you can learn mathematics or computer science. Or if nuclear science and brain and cognitive sciences is your thing have at it :)

Music_Producer

Sep 5, 2007, 11:34 PM

And it's those automated trading models or various computerized strategies that have also caused the biggest losses and bankruptcies.. read up about various hedge funds losses.. Bear Sterns trading methods, etc.

The most common trading pattern is DOW and GBP/JPY. Both are strongly co-related. However in the last few trading times, that pattern has been broken. All the traders have switched off their trading strategies because the markets are clearly driving on fundamentals right now.

Fundamental trading + technicals is the best - because you can enter a trade with more confidence. However, it's easy to be tempted by a technical indicator.. especially when fundamental reports don't come out every hour or so.

Music_Producer

Sep 7, 2007, 08:49 AM

~Shard~

Sep 7, 2007, 09:31 AM

Tell me you guys traded this one! NFP came out -4K (expected 110K) I mean.. sheesh! What a deviation! LMAO.. I'm still reeling from this one..

Got tons of pips on GBP/USD .. it's still rising.. and I shorted GJ .. showing resistance at 232.. but I'm sure it will go lower.. and the DOW should plummet. Crazy crazy crazy.. I think the recession has begun.

You bet Music_Producer! After a quiet summer, it looks like I'm back! ;) :D Well, at least reports like this one sure make me feel back in the game... :D

Traded EURUSD due to the smaller spread and also because GU is a lot more volatile. Good for making more money off it, however when it comes to NFP, I'm not sure I need the extra volatility. ;)

Anyway, got in late at 1.3731 but rode it up to 1.3768, so 37 pips! :eek: Obviously could have had more, but I'll take it. Traded a $100K lot only though, again, due to it being NFP - I don't like the potential of whipsawing around with larger lots. ;)

Yep, this could finally be the start of a down-turn. The whole sub-prime mess is finally starting to spill over into the job market and elsewhere. And now the Feds are not only going to cut rates (idiots) but might be forced to do it sooner than Sept 18. This will exacerbate inflation and cause mroe problems.

Good thing I put a short on the NDAQ100 and S&P500 last week... :D

Oh, and Gold is performing great as well. I haven't spoke about it here lately but I entered my seasonality play on it a little while ago and it's finally starting to take off. This USD weakness will only improve the situation as well. :)

Hope everyone else caught a piece of this trade - it was a great one! :cool:

ctrackstar

Sep 7, 2007, 05:05 PM

I watched what happened during it to see what it would do to price :(

Ive been reading mostly. I just got trading in the zone. Then its on to some Tom de mark books. Patience is key :)

~Shard~

Sep 7, 2007, 06:03 PM

Absolutely, patience is the key. There will always be another trade, so it's best to take things slow, don't force things (i.e. trade for the sake of trading or trade based on speculation/emotion), and learn. There's no substitute for experience! :cool:

joshmv

Sep 7, 2007, 11:12 PM

~Shard~

Sep 8, 2007, 02:02 AM

Ya, that job report was a shocker, and an easy trade.

I'm in mourning a little bit because it's taking forever for my funds to clear in Oanda and I was planning on getting long in the Euro about 175 pips ago :mad:

Anyways, I'm wondering what you guys think the reaction is going to be to the feds cut interest rates (whenever that comes). It looks like it's coming in the very near future, and the only question is whether it will be .25 or .5%.

I understand your frustration josh, but keep in mind there is always another trade to be made. If you want to feel bad over missed trades, then start with the year that you were born and think about all the trades you could have been in on over the past couple of decades! :eek: ;) :D

If US interest rates do indeed get cut (which is fundamentally the opposite of what the US needs to do so address inflation, etc. concerns) the USD will tank. No offense to anyone but man am I glad I'm not living in the States right now - the economy there is in a world of hurt on so many levels and due to so many factors... and it's only going to get worse before it gets better...

Ah well, what do I care, I'll be profiting from it all... :eek: :p ;) :D

Music_Producer

Sep 8, 2007, 02:56 AM

Hey Shard! Good to see you back again! :) You still want to buy real estate in Las Vegas? ;)

Yes, patience is required in this business.. but not when the trend is against you. Don't hold on to a position if all the fundamentals say completely the opposite. Sometimes it's hard to close a losing position so you tend to hold on to it.. hoping it will recover.

It may recover.. but by that time you'll probably face a margin call and your position will be closed for a loss. And then in an hour.. the currency pair will go back to where you initially opened the position! Happens all the time.

Don't overleverage your position - brokers love it when customers do that. People tend to put 90% of their funds in one trade.. which is kinda crazy.

This morning I was very tempted to put most of my funds on the GBP/JPY short trade.. had I done so I would have made enough money to buy a house.. but the Feds could have announced a surprise rate cut.. and the position could have gone against me.. effectively blowing up my account.

Like Shard said.. there will always be trade opportunities.. don't despair.

Again on the patience factor - had I held on to my gbp/jpy short.. I would have made 250+ pips as it did keep falling.. I mean with that NFP report it was obvious it would. But you always, always have to keep in mind that anything can happen.. for instance:

A surprise fed rate cut or

intervention by the bank of japan (to sell the yen.. so usd/jpy doesn't fall too much)

Take your profit, and be happy. I'm more than happy that I got some good pips this morning.. am I upset that I didn't make more? Nah.. I'll keep making them anyway. There's no rush.

Then there are people who think that a currency pair can't fall too much.. on forexfactory there was this one chap who actually went long on GBP/JPY an hour after the NFP! He thought it would go to 233 (after it dropped to 232) NEVER be foolish like that.. he probably blew up his account if he didn't have a stop loss.

I think a 25 bps rate cut on Sep 18 is fully priced in. Obviously I don't think they should cut rates (I've been waiting for a hike lol) If they don't cut rates, the stock markets will probably collapse (maybe on sep 18 only but who knows) Then everything depends on the statements the Fed comes out with - if they are hawkish.. GBP/USD will fall.. GBP/JPY will be doomed.. stock markets will go to hell, etc. If they're dovish.. I don't know.. you might see pairs jumping around a bit.

If they do cut by 25 bps.. since that's already priced in.. you might not see a lot of action.

Iscariot

Sep 8, 2007, 03:09 AM

nhallmark

Sep 8, 2007, 03:35 PM

I'm unsure if this has been asked before -- this is a very long thread -- but if someone were interested in learning more and perhaps getting "into" Forex and other online trading, what would be a good starting point?

www.forexfactory.com

www.investopedia.com

www.babypips.com

And get "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas.

Hope that helps,
Nathan

ctrackstar

Sep 9, 2007, 01:49 AM

www.forexfactory.com

www.investopedia.com

www.babypips.com

And get "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas.

Hope that helps,
Nathan

Yea these sources have been great for me. The only one I havent spent much time on is investopedia but I've been too enthralled with FF.

Also I started to read "The Candlestick Course" by Steve Nison which I feel is a very good way to break into understanding candlestick charting. Its good to build a strong foundation. Even if you are going to be a fundamentalist trader you may find some strengths in technicals. The thing I've found most interesting about currency traders who have been successful and made it to the "elite 5%" is that they seem very self actualized. You would think that these guys would be arrogant :eek: but they just seem so laid back and helpful. To me that is a good motivator to know that something about being successful at this can turn you into a great person.

nhallmark

Sep 9, 2007, 02:17 PM

The thing I've found most interesting about currency traders who have been successful and made it to the "elite 5%" is that they seem very self actualized. You would think that these guys would be arrogant :eek: but they just seem so laid back and helpful. To me that is a good motivator to know that something about being successful at this can turn you into a great person.

That comes from the market kicking your a$$ so many times that you stop and learn how to do it right :p

I know what you mean though. It's cool that so many are so willing to help.

Hey, MP and Shard, what's the vote on whether the JPY pairs will tank this week after NFP and the fed not cutting rates(yet...lol)?

ctrackstar

Sep 9, 2007, 04:35 PM

That comes from the market kicking your a$$ so many times that you stop and learn how to do it right :p

I know what you mean though. It's cool that so many are so willing to help.

Hey, MP and Shard, what's the vote on whether the JPY pairs will tank this week after NFP and the fed not cutting rates(yet...lol)?

Yea Im trying to feel as though I have gotten my :eek: :p before I even trade. Im glad there are so many examples of losses out there and its already pounded in my head to be disciplined. Ive read some on technical analysis and reading through the thread I understand what shard is talking about. Although I am only at page 40 of the thread.

Ill be actually starting my two demo accounts monday. Ill have to reset them though because ive done some blind trading just to get the feel of it all. Im going to use one demo account that I will use as if it was my money and the other Im going to use to practice perhaps all news trades just so I can experience the worth or worthlessness of them. I may also play with some technical indicators on the "play" account to put into use what im learning.

Also for newbies reading this like myself if you didnt read the thread or did you will catch onto something MP has said about learning. That was that he wrote down the news and what happened as he went along. I think a good idea is to have a tabbed notebook ready and have the different types of news in the tabs. Do the trade in your demo account and write down what happened. I even suggest this to you educated noobs ;). To help you prepare for a news report read over your notebook. Take into account what happened to the market when this or that happened. Reading the posts what MP does is simple but what sets him apart is his process time. He spends more time clicking buttons then he does actually deciphering whats going on.

Invest in yourself. If you really want to take this serious you must do the extra things to give you an edge. I own my own business and deal with regular stocks but upon learning about forex and seeing how the lifestyle is I decided its perfect for me(irregular sleeping, gambling like excitement, ability to make a profit at certain time of day and sleep in a hammock the rest)

If I find myself a successful trader and get to the point of some of these guys Ill have to fly out and buy a beer for the contributors of this thread. Hopefully one day I can bring my own style to the table and help you guys profit in other ways.

Also I sent an invite to get part of the .mac group. If you didnt get it let me know Ill PM you my address.

joshmv

Sep 9, 2007, 04:58 PM

MP, if you were going to hold a trade for a while, which pair would be your favorite right now?

ctrackstar

Sep 9, 2007, 09:29 PM

Im on page 55 so I haven't got all the way through so sorry if this gets answered later on.

1. I see problems with latency which can be at fault of the actual broker but at the same time if you were making some decent money wouldnt it be just to invest in a T3 line. Im actually surprised I read MP trading on a laptop. I play games on my computer and I would never go wireless if it was a FPS. I would want as much reduced lag as possible.

2. It was mentioned when ordering the Bloomberg package for $1750 that you get a direct line to them? What exactly does that mean. Im assuming it means a VPN . Then it goes back to why not invest into a sturdier connection. Again sorry if this was discusses later on I should be caught up by tonight.

ctrackstar

Sep 10, 2007, 03:20 AM

Well I just got done reading the "trading chronicles". It was intense. I laughed, I cried and I was held in suspense. Its some great reading I dedicated my weekend to it. I shouldve printed itout because its very hard to read fast on the computer.

Well time to get busy.

Music_Producer

Sep 10, 2007, 04:42 AM

MP, if you were going to hold a trade for a while, which pair would be your favorite right now?

I wouldn't hold any long term trades at all.. especially right now.. but if I really had to do it - it would be AUD/JPY. Nice interest, aussie economy is solid (unlike the US) Fundamentally Aussie is very strong.. it's just the carry trade fears that are driving aud/jpy down.

In the event of a massive drop down.. aud/jpy has the potential to go down 3000 pips.. while gbp/jpy has the potential to go down 10,000 pips. So I feel 'safer' with aud/jpy.

Nathan, right now jpy pairs all seem to be looking downward.. if Feds don't cut, AND BoJ hikes.. lol.. party time. If Feds hike and boj hike.. then you know what to do right? (short your house, car, pet, etc on GJ)

nhallmark

Sep 10, 2007, 04:54 AM

Nathan, right now jpy pairs all seem to be looking downward.. if Feds don't cut, AND BoJ hikes.. lol.. party time. If Feds hike and boj hike.. then you know what to do right? (short your house, car, pet, etc on GJ)

ROFL

I was hoping they would get started tonight but it seems like london is just ignoring NFP.

Also, I read on FF that the overnight rate is already around 5.00% but they haven't "officially" cut rates...whatever. Im just tired of this BS like last week where we're stuck in an 80-100 pip range(for E/J at least).

nhallmark

Sep 10, 2007, 07:12 PM

All the hedge fund managers are protesting...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1585235&postcount=17

LOL...you guys gotta read it :p

ctrackstar

Sep 10, 2007, 09:17 PM

All the hedge fund managers are protesting...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1585235&postcount=17

LOL...you guys gotta read it :p

that was a great read

Music_Producer

Sep 11, 2007, 01:41 AM

All the hedge fund managers are protesting...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1585235&postcount=17

LOL...you guys gotta read it :p

LMAO. What a bunch of sorry babies - so the government should cover their a$$es for bad investment decisions? :rolleyes: Very funny..

ctrack.. I use a laptop because currenex operates even with a 20 kbps connection.. yep I've tried. CMC markets would show a 'lag' time of 250ms or more even when I had directly connected my ethernet modem to the macbook.. just shows how much crap they were giving.

A wireless connection works fine with any broker.. Bloomberg probably does not want to take any chances of customers suing them for non-performance in the event their (the customer's) internet connection has disconnects or something of that sort. With a direct line, there is no way that anyone can make up a story about Bloomberg being slow.. and of course, to offer the most stable and fastest connection for news.

Reuters has been working great for me, but some reports lag.. which is why most professional traders use both platforms.. which would be overkill for me.

ctrackstar

Sep 11, 2007, 05:19 AM

LMAO. What a bunch of sorry babies - so the government should cover their a$$es for bad investment decisions? :rolleyes: Very funny..

ctrack.. I use a laptop because currenex operates even with a 20 kbps connection.. yep I've tried. CMC markets would show a 'lag' time of 250ms or more even when I had directly connected my ethernet modem to the macbook.. just shows how much crap they were giving.

A wireless connection works fine with any broker.. Bloomberg probably does not want to take any chances of customers suing them for non-performance in the event their (the customer's) internet connection has disconnects or something of that sort. With a direct line, there is no way that anyone can make up a story about Bloomberg being slow.. and of course, to offer the most stable and fastest connection for news.

Reuters has been working great for me, but some reports lag.. which is why most professional traders use both platforms.. which would be overkill for me.

So im assuming the new platform has been working out for you as far as news goes? Haven't seen much activity lately.

Music_Producer

Sep 11, 2007, 06:08 AM

So im assuming the new platform has been working out for you as far as news goes? Haven't seen much activity lately.

Works great.. but you have to be very fast. I got screwed today on the UK trade balance.. an example of how 'patience' can get you in the wrong place!

UK trade balance came out much worse than expected at -7.1 Billion. So I shorted GBP/USD at 2.0255.. it dipped to 2.0245.. but I didn't cover the short since I knew it was a bad number.

Bloody thing moved all the way up to 2.0307 in about 45 minutes. :mad: Absolutely surprised, I went back to see if they made any kind of revision to the trade balance. Turns out that the trade balance had been 'distorted' by errors in oil pricing. WTF? Lol.. that;s what I get for just looking at the number and not the accompanying statement.

I was about to close my trade when I noticed that the Debt Management OFfice in the UK had auctioned off some units, and that the bids received were 'disappointing' I saw the pound drop to 2.0300 and I shorted with a bigger lot.. closed it at 2.0285. So I broke even.. with a 3 pip loss.. which was all right.

It's rare that a currency pair moves in the opposite direction of that of the report.. in this case, I missed out on that explanation for the wide deficit. I should have closed my position for that 10 pip profit.. oh well, there's always another time. :p

ctrackstar

Sep 11, 2007, 08:30 AM

Works great.. but you have to be very fast. I got screwed today on the UK trade balance.. an example of how 'patience' can get you in the wrong place!

UK trade balance came out much worse than expected at -7.1 Billion. So I shorted GBP/USD at 2.0255.. it dipped to 2.0245.. but I didn't cover the short since I knew it was a bad number.

Bloody thing moved all the way up to 2.0307 in about 45 minutes. :mad: Absolutely surprised, I went back to see if they made any kind of revision to the trade balance. Turns out that the trade balance had been 'distorted' by errors in oil pricing. WTF? Lol.. that;s what I get for just looking at the number and not the accompanying statement.

I was about to close my trade when I noticed that the Debt Management OFfice in the UK had auctioned off some units, and that the bids received were 'disappointing' I saw the pound drop to 2.0300 and I shorted with a bigger lot.. closed it at 2.0285. So I broke even.. with a 3 pip loss.. which was all right.

It's rare that a currency pair moves in the opposite direction of that of the report.. in this case, I missed out on that explanation for the wide deficit. I should have closed my position for that 10 pip profit.. oh well, there's always another time. :p

The one thing I notice about your trades. I read that you got a lose and then I wait to see how you recover it. Always amazes me how you recover this stuff.

Music_Producer

Sep 11, 2007, 09:51 AM

The one thing I notice about your trades. I read that you got a lose and then I wait to see how you recover it. Always amazes me how you recover this stuff.

You always keep resistance and support levels on your chart.. and the 5SMA. Retracements usually hit the 30 min or 1 hour 5 SMA and then proceed back on track.

An hour ago, GBP/JPY started rushing up.. it hit 231.60 (which is a fib level - so good resistance there) As soon as it hit that level, it started dropping. So I shorted it, for a quick scalp.. I was expecting it to fall to the 30 min 5 SMA which was around 230.95. It eventually went down to 231.07.. where I exited.. because it didn't look like it was going to hit the 5sma level. Plus, Bernanke's speech is coming up today.

Every spike, or drop.. always retraces. You can see it running out of steam.. you have to get used to it. Of course, you do have to look at any news event which is causing that spike/drop.. if there is no news.. then yes, it retraces.. if there is.. then determine how strong/important that report is. For e.g. a surprise interest rate hike/cut.. the pair will shoot 100-150 pips.. and will never retrace.

joshmv

Sep 11, 2007, 01:21 PM

Just traded real money for the first time, closed out with 9 cents profit, :eek::D

Music_Producer

Sep 12, 2007, 04:36 AM

Just traded real money for the first time, closed out with 9 cents profit, :eek::D

Nice! That's how I started.. my first profit was 1 cent.. and I went out to celebrate lol.

UK earnings report and claimant count was so easy to trade.. in a funny way. Both came out good.. and oddly.. GBP/USD dropped to 2.0320 (from 2.0330) I guess people were expecting it to come out bad.. so I got in at a great price.. 2.0320.. and got out at 2.0345.

It's dropped a bit now, but that might be profit taking. Also some news about a UK hedge fund losing 25% of their account.. that's weighing in on the pound. With all these bad reports everywhere it's become a pain to trade news reports.. usually we could have seen 30-40 pips move.. but there have been idiotic 10-12 pip moves.. and then retraces.. trades whipping around.. nuts :eek:

I can't wait for this carry trade sob story to be over already!

zorgborder

Sep 12, 2007, 04:45 AM

I've got 13 cents :)

Music_Producer

Sep 12, 2007, 04:51 AM

I've got 13 cents :)

Hey you're making more than me :) Pound now at 2.0365 (ahhhh why did I get out at 2.0345 :mad:)

~Shard~

Sep 12, 2007, 10:35 AM

joshmv

Sep 12, 2007, 02:15 PM

I've been trialing a new method for scalping this past week and so far it's worked fairly well. 1 minute trades for the most part, 3-4 pips is the goal, and I've been fairly consistent. Made 12 pips on AUDUSD alone last night and another 7 on EURJPY. Potentially a nice supplement to news trading. :cool:

So, is it time yet to pile onto the carry trade again? :p ;) :D

Scalping is all I've done since I went live, mainly because I haven't seen any news that I knew well enough to trade, and I couldn't stay up for the GBP announcement.

I am on the positive side, but I need to make sure that I only trade when it is abundantly clear what SHOULD happen. Occasionally I find myself guessing the tops or bottoms, and I need to be patient, and wait for the major indicators to come into play, that way I know the bigger players will be going in the same direction as I am.

What's next on everyones radar as far as news releases are concerned?

Also what are your thoughts on the state of carry trades at this point, obviously most have had a strong week, but it's a strange trend overall.

nhallmark

Sep 12, 2007, 03:02 PM

Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes financially.

It was fun while it lasted though!

Good luck guys ;)

~Shard~

Sep 12, 2007, 03:48 PM

I am on the positive side, but I need to make sure that I only trade when it is abundantly clear what SHOULD happen. Occasionally I find myself guessing the tops or bottoms, and I need to be patient, and wait for the major indicators to come into play, that way I know the bigger players will be going in the same direction as I am.

You're absolutely right - blind speculation in the markets is a very bad thing and will get you in a lot of trouble. You essentially end up guessing and if that's the game you want to play you might as well just guess what number is going to hit on the roulette wheel at the casino.

No one can know for sure what will happen or else we'd all be rich, but what we can do is try to even the odds and make the most informed decisions possible at the time. It takes a lot of discipline, trust me. :cool:

What's next on everyones radar as far as news releases are concerned?

US retail sales and production/productivity. Then of course next week is the big rate announcement. Lots of action then I'm guessing.

Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes financially.

It was fun while it lasted though!

Good luck guys ;)

Nathan, I'm sorry to hear that. :( You do not have to elaborate of course, but I am curious, did your forex account blow up or does this have something to do with your financial situation in general which has resulted in forex trading not being an option for you anymore?

Either way, I'm sorry to hear that - as one long-standing member of the thread to another it was great to have you around and I wish you nothing but success in the future. Take care friend. :cool:

nhallmark

Sep 12, 2007, 05:32 PM

Nathan, I'm sorry to hear that. :( You do not have to elaborate of course, but I am curious, did your forex account blow up or does this have something to do with your financial situation in general which has resulted in forex trading not being an option for you anymore?

Either way, I'm sorry to hear that - as one long-standing member of the thread to another it was great to have you around and I wish you nothing but success in the future. Take care friend. :cool:

You guys warned me and others on this thread not to rely on forex to pay the bills...but I did it anyway:o

So, yeah, I "blew" my account on bills lol :p

joshmv

Sep 12, 2007, 05:51 PM

US retail sales and production/productivity. Then of course next week is the big rate announcement. Lots of action then I'm guessing.

Are you still trading on the initial spike, and have you tried trading the retracement spike afterwards?

I'm still with Oanda, so with the crazy spreads, I might sit back and try and trade the second spike on that one to see how it goes.

If it's only a 10 pip spread or something I'll definitely try and trade with the news, but as big as the announcement is, I'm guessing it will be large.

ctrackstar

Sep 12, 2007, 08:43 PM

Well, its game over for me...lol :p ...made some mistakes financially.

It was fun while it lasted though!

Good luck guys ;)

I havent had the pleasure of blowing my first account. From judging what I've seen all the best investors blew there accounts. The worst they blew it the better it seemed they came back as long as they didnt quit. Time to demo your :eek: off :cool:

Music_Producer

Sep 12, 2007, 08:56 PM

Got a good 25 pips on NZD retail sales report.. this was again, slow and easy.. I like NZD for this reason.. shorted 5 minutes after the report came out.. at 0.7110.. and took profit at 0.7085.

Nathan, what happened? :( PM me man, was it your dukas account? I hope you didn't get caught up in technical trading the GBP/JPY.. I only trade GJ on important US reports (especially during this risk averse environment) .. otherwise I don't touch it. That pair moves 100-200 pips in seconds.

You can build your account back up, slowly - it will take time.. but no losses are permanent mate. Every time I deviate from my strategy.. I get punished for it, so I stick to what I know and do best.

Shard, no carry trades happening yet - it's almost 2 months now since the carries got busted.. and they aren't anywhere back to their original levels.. just shows that market confidence is pretty shaky. Everyone's waiting for Sep 18 - till then markets might range or stay flat (unless something important happens before sep 18)

~Shard~

Sep 13, 2007, 12:14 AM

Are you still trading on the initial spike, and have you tried trading the retracement spike afterwards?

Nah, no retracement trading for me, not yet at least. I've toyed around with it a bit, but there's something that still bugs me abut trading it, as I feel it's speculative trading and not trading based on the facts, even though I know the probabilities surrounding retracements are somewhat valid. :o

Shard, no carry trades happening yet - it's almost 2 months now since the carries got busted.. and they aren't anywhere back to their original levels.. just shows that market confidence is pretty shaky. Everyone's waiting for Sep 18 - till then markets might range or stay flat (unless something important happens before sep 18)

Yep - next week I might even take a day off work on purpose just to be around to day trade. :cool:

joshmv

Sep 13, 2007, 12:42 AM

I haven't seen much discussion of it elsewhere, so I might be off-base, but I'm seeing a pretty strong trendline on the AUD/JPY pair. If you look at the 3 or 4 hour chart, you can take a trendline from the tops, and it comes down as a resistance zone a little bit above the current price.

What do you guys think about that?

Sorry no picture, don't have enough time to figure that out right now :p

Music_Producer

Sep 14, 2007, 08:38 AM

38 pips on US retail sales.. had a feeling number would come out -ve. I like -ve numbers :p Anyone care to guess which pair I traded?

joshmv

Sep 14, 2007, 08:56 AM

With the lower spread, and the bigger action, I'll go ahead and say USD/JPY?

Music_Producer

Sep 14, 2007, 09:02 AM

With the lower spread, and the bigger action, I'll go ahead and say USD/JPY?

Ding ding ding! You win a beer ;) The reason I went with UJ was because GBP/USD was heavily beaten up today.. two bad news - Northern Rock forced to borrow from bank of england.. and the house prices in the UK dropped sharply. So I wasn't too sure about GBP's strength.. and I was right, it moved up only 20 pips on the news

Today was a fantastic opportunity to witness fundamentals vs technicals. Check out te GBP/JPY thread on forexfactory.. even *after* the bad news about northern rock came out.. people went long on GJ based on technicals. :rolleyes: Needless to say there were losses of 100 pips or more (I'm sure some hopefuls kept holding on till they got a margin call)

Again, techs are great for determining supports, resistance.. and possible retracement levels.. but for God's sake.. if there's significant news staring at you in the face, don't ignore it!

~Shard~

Sep 14, 2007, 09:15 AM

Very well said Music_Producer, and well done on the trade! I only managed 9 pips myself, but that's better than nothing. Plus I'm still with CMC, so enough said... :o ;)

Getting back to you point though, yes, technicals have their time and place, but I would never trade based on technicals during a news announcement - that's just plain silly. Technicals might (rightly or wrongly) move the markets at times, but fundamentals, are, well, fundamentals. You can't argue with them. :p :cool:

That being said, I technical traded EURJPY last night due to some nice setups and scalped 7 pips in total. ;) Trades were only open for a few minute, in and out...

Well, I'm done trading for this week, but next week should be loads of fun. I'm debating taking Tuesday off from work and seeing if I can make more money off day trading the US rate announcement than I would have at work. :p ;) :D

Have a great weekend everybody and happy trading! :cool:

joshmv

Sep 14, 2007, 09:28 AM

Do you guys think the consumer numbers coming out at 10:00 ET will be able to move the markets much?

nhallmark

Sep 14, 2007, 11:26 PM

Here's another laugh if you guys haven't seen this yet...

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/cartoon%20sharp.gif

joshmv

Sep 17, 2007, 01:24 AM

I'm getting ready to trade the announcements on Tuesday, what's everyones game plan?

Which pair are you going to trade on?

What's your move for 0 bps, 25 bps, 50 bps?

~Shard~

Sep 17, 2007, 01:29 AM

I'm getting ready to trade the announcements on Tuesday, what's everyones game plan?

Which pair are you going to trade on?

What's your move for 0 bps, 25 bps, 50 bps?

I'll bet 25 bps. Potentially trading GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY. :cool:

joshmv

Sep 17, 2007, 11:34 PM

I'll bet 25 bps. Potentially trading GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY. :cool:

What do you think about trading the AUD/JPY, since it moves much the same as the USD/JPY and may have a very low spread throughout the announcements?

Also, what exactly would you do if it moved 25bps since MP was saying he thought that was probably already priced in.

By the way, are you trading the other announcements earlier in the day, or just leaving it alone until the interest rate news?

Music_Producer

Sep 18, 2007, 08:51 AM

25 pips on UK CPI report, 18 on US PPI report (both GBP/USD) and 75 pips on GBP/JPY (US PPI report) :D I went long on GJ after the terrible US PPI.. because that basically guaranteed that the Feds should cut rates. And I love it when I'm right.. GJ shot up 100 pips.

Now I'm staying out till the rate decision.. I'm VERY scared to trade this one. Your trading platform will most likely freeze or do weird things. I really don't want to give my pips away.. lol.

The only possible trading scenario I have is - if markets do not cut, or if markets cut by 50 bps. I don't know what a 25 bps cut will do - markets have priced that in a month ago.. in fact, 40% of traders are even pricing in a 50 bps cut.

So I would love to see no rate cut (the ultimate prize would be a rate hike.. I think I'll be vilified for this comment)

If it's a 25 bps cut.. I'm staying out until the Fed statement.. and see what their language is. If they talk about cutting rates again.. then I'll buy GJ.. if not .. or they talk about inflation being a concern.. I'm staying out.

There will be wild swings on this one, so do NOT trade a lot of units. I am, myself using a minimal lot.. not because I don't trust my trading.. but I don't trust the trading conditions.

Every trader - professional, amateur and his pet cat are going to be waiting for this rate announcement.

Josh.. I don't know about AUD/JPY.. but if news is good for carries.. then AUD/JPY will go up with GBP/JPY. GBP/JPY moves the most though.. like 100 pips in 2 seconds. :eek: