Prospective 970 Prices

Um...

Anyone with anyone is making HUGE leaps in info.

Ok, first of all, its quite possible that there won't be any duals for a while. If the 970 is the next generation platform, the first round might just be one or two types of single processor configs.

And if it goes dual, well, you don't need 2 chips, you go with the dual core 970 - single chip, two cpus. If they ever got around to handling quad processors, the a dual, dual core 970 would be the one I'd want.

There's my 2¢ - as for price - anyones guess since its only speculation we'll even see the 970 this year.

D

I would believe that we will see a small hike in the price of the next generation 970 powermacs. New chips are more expensive and the 970 is rumored to have a hefty pricetag.. I see your prices as rather optimistic.

Originally posted by timbloom
I would believe that we will see a small hike in the price of the next generation 970 powermacs. New chips are more expensive and the 970 is rumored to have a hefty pricetag.. I see your prices as rather optimistic.

Click to expand...

I agree. I hope apple can get the prices down that low and the
Hz up that high. They would earn much denero if they would do
that. I know I would buy one.

If I were to speculate, and this is pure speculation, these are the prices and configs I would envision:

$1499- Next to highest G4 chip (duel)
$1999- Highest G4 chip (duel)
$2699- 2.0Ghz 970 (single)
$3099- 1.8Ghz 970 (duel)

These are probably not going to be the case, but this is the closest I can guess it will come to be. It may be that they switch around the 970s and make them both single processors.

Originally posted by dukestreet
Ok, first of all, its quite possible that there won't be any duals for a while. If the 970 is the next generation platform, the first round might just be one or two types of single processor configs.

And if it goes dual, well, you don't need 2 chips, you go with the dual core 970 - single chip, two cpus. If they ever got around to handling quad processors, the a dual, dual core 970 would be the one I'd want.

There's my 2¢ - as for price - anyones guess since its only speculation we'll even see the 970 this year.

D

Click to expand...

I don't think you will see a dual core 970. Just because the processor its based on is a dual core (the power4) doesn't mean anything. Dual core seems antithetical to the point of the 970: powerful but cheap. Maybe we'll be surprised, but I don't think we'll see it considering its currently being billed as a single core chip with pretty good multiprocessing features.

While speculating on prices isn't going to really be based on anything, I don't think they will be particularly expensive chips. I think IBM has a vested interest in getting it adopted by as many customers as possible. Afterall, they use the chips themselves. To take advantage of economies of scale they need to make the chips widely available. its actually pretty interesting when you think about it. most companies make a product and are pretty much only interested in making as much profit from it as possible by keeping prices as high as the market will bear. While of course IBM is going to do the same thing, its tempered by the fact that they are a customer of the chip themselves and need to ramp up production as high as possible to keep their own costs down.

I think I've seen some things about IBM later moving to a 300 mm wafers (or whatever) from the current 200 mm (or whatever), which should further bring down costs, as will better,smaller lithography techniques that are supposed to be scheduled down the road. Thus I think we'll see pricing pretty similar to the G4's now. Apple may well go back to single processor configurations, hopefully because duals won't be necessary for performance issues as they are now. I think it would be really, really cool if performance is hihg enough to only require single processor configurations, perhaps at a lower price, but with the option to add duals to any tower system for additional cost. That would satisfy a lot of different users: keeps costs down but makes more horsepower available at relatively low cost that apple can reap additional profit on.

Late 2003

$1499= PPC 970 1.6Ghz

$1999= PPC 970 1.8Ghz

$2999= PPC 970 2.0Ghz Dual Config

Spring of 2004

Powerbooks= 1.4Ghz and 1.6Ghz PPC 970 @ 90nm

$1499= PPC 970 1.8Ghz @ 90nm

$1999= PPC 970 2.2Ghz @ 90nm

$2999= PPC 970 2.5Ghz Dual Proc @ 90nm

Fall of 2004

$1499= PPC 970 2.0Ghz

$1999- PPC 970 2.5Ghz Dual Core

$2999= PPC 970+ 3Ghz Dual Core SMT(Simultaneous Multithreading)

The thing about Apple is that they keep prices relatively high, and like to keep them there. They don't want to bring the prices down too much, and people will expect lower prices with single processor systems. Duel Processor machines are even used in Intel Xenon systems. Duel Processors will keep it so that people are able to render something in Photoshop while still being able to easily surf the net and such. I personally think that IBM's emphasis on what good multi-processor chips these 970s are is per Apple's request. I think, that with all that Apple has invested in an OS that is multiprocessor aware, they will continue to produce MP machines. Plus, the 970 isn't anywhere close to Intel's chips, so marketing is still going to be a major struggling point for Apple. Now if only they would have some decent commercials like the one for the iMac FP, then we might see sales rise.
I do like the idea that IBM is using the chip in the same type of market as Apple b/c it will encourage them to speed up the processor, unlike Moto. As we see faster Blade servers, we will see faster Macs.
I also think that Apple's move away from MacWorld Expo may be a good strategy and sign. I think that the only reason that they would move away from it is that the expos are not frequent enough for them to release new products. Dell, Gateway, etc release new products monthly (since that is usually when they see new P4 chips), and Apple needs to start doing the same. Hopefully with the new 970, speed-bumps will come often enough that they will be able to introduce new machines more often.

Nukinfutz: I think that your expectations on the speed at which we will see speed bumps may be a little fast and a little too spread out. I honestly don't think that in the near future we will see Apples in the same lineup with a Ghz of speed difference. I do think that we will see SMT sometime, but I am guessing that it will be late 2004/early 2005. Also, I think that it will take until fall of '04 before we will see a 970 laptop from Apple just b/c it will require a completely new design concept (Apple has to go all out with an announcement like that) and it is going to be a while before they perfect the 970 to fast but energy efficient. Considering that Moto is working on a new G4, I think we will see a G4 in PowerBooks until it hits 1.5Ghz at least. I'd say that once we see a G4 iBook, we can expect a new PowerBook after one more speed-bump. Apple moved the iMac to the G4 almost a year ago, so I would expect to see similar for the iBook.

Originally posted by KingArthur
I personally think that IBM's emphasis on what good multi-processor chips these 970s are is per Apple's request.

Click to expand...

Personally, I doubt apple had any influence at all over that. I think its got more to do with the fact that its just a good feature to have in a chip thats intended for low end servers and worstations, and the fact that the chip its based on its meant to be sued in multiprocessing situations.

I think it will be interesting to see exactly how big a customer apple is for this chip. Since IBM certainly seems intent on using extensively and seems to be working to get more companies involved with the powerpc architecture, apple may not be that big to them, sizeable certainly, but probably not enough to dictate low level architecture requirements. But who knows. We won't really know until this all pans out. Altivec would certainly seem to be due to apple's influence, but IBM may have had their own reasons for including it.

True, Strider. I didn't mean it the way it came out. I should have said that if the processor is so good with multi-processing, I would bet that Apple would take advantage of that strength. It might also be more economical for them to use a duel processor machine with a slightly below fastest processor so that they can make it seem like you are getting more for the same price. In a sense, that would be true, and in a sense it would be false.
I would bet that AltiVec is probably an Apple influence, but also, it is necessary for them to have some kind of SIMD execution core in order to be competetive with Intel, and since AltiVec is already a well established PPC SIMD function, I bet they finally decided that it would be worth it if they were to sell it to other companies. I bet Apple will be a fairly large consumer to begin with b/c it isn't going to be easy for them to convince other companies to switch to the PPC archetecture from the well-established x86 archetecture. If IBM is sucessful in persuading a major competitor into using the 970 chip, there is the possibility that MacOS X would run on those machines (either natively or with a few hacks). Apple is trying their hardest to not turn into a software only company, though, b/c almost every time that happens to a company, they soon get bought out by another company. Look at Atri and Sega for example. Both seeing tough times now that they are software only. True, these companies were in the console market, but I foresee the same thing happening to Apple if they don't keep the hardware division. The only way they could support themselves if they turnned into a software based company is if OS X really took off in the PC market.

Plus, the 970 isn't anywhere close to Intel's chips

Click to expand...

IBM's Spec FP/INT of 1050/932 compares to somewhere between a P4 2.8Ghz-3Ghz. I don't know if I'd say this isn't "anywhere" close to Intel.

I do think that we will see SMT sometime, but I am guessing that it will be late 2004/early 2005

Click to expand...

Yes I also said Fall of 2004 which means to me Sept-Nov of 2004. You've backed my statement up about SMT.

Also, I think that it will take until fall of '04 before we will see a 970 laptop from Apple just b/c it will require a completely new design concept

Click to expand...

You would be wrong here. I will only require a PPC 970 which has low enough voltage and heat dissipation. OMG looky here....the PPC has such a model now at 130nm which dissipates 19 watts at 1.2Ghz. Now process shrink that to 90nm and the Mhz goes up and dissipation down. Once Apple designs the motherboard it will be easy to place in a Powerbook. Remember the PPC 970 is still only 52 Million transistors. That's barely larger than a G4 and you don't need space for a L3 cache.

It might also be more economical for them to use a duel processor machine with a slightly below fastest processor

Click to expand...

Correct. It really all depends on the yields that IBM sees for the 970. If they struggle with 1.8Ghz but can crank out loads of 1.4 and 1.6Ghz then you might see Apple ratchet down and go Dual. Time will tell.

Originally posted by KingArthur
If I were to speculate, and this is pure speculation, these are the prices and configs I would envision:

$1499- Next to highest G4 chip (duel)
$1999- Highest G4 chip (duel)
$2699- 2.0Ghz 970 (single)
$3099- 1.8Ghz 970 (duel)

These are probably not going to be the case, but this is the closest I can guess it will come to be. It may be that they switch around the 970s and make them both single processors.

Click to expand...

Not to be picky but "duel" means ‘to fight,’ "dual" means ‘double.’

After all, KingArthur is a fighter not a "dual" minded person.

Lol. I fence all the time, so the word "duel" is used all the time, not "dual" .

I'm still iffy about whether or not the PB will see a 970 in early 2004. What I meant by a new design concept is that Apple will want to redo the powerbook, if not only to refresh their line. With the innovation level behind the powerbooks, I would bet they are going to try and blow everyone away with an entirely new enclosure. Maybe we will even see SXGA TFT screens in them (that would be nice). Also, like I said, I think that they will bump the iBook to G4 before they go 970 in the PowerBook. It just has been the way of things. They introduced the iBook with a G3 before introducing the PB G4. They introduced the iMac as a G3 before making a G4 tower. They now have the iMac as a G4 in preperation for the 970 (we hope) in the towers. Remember also, that on the Apple store's website, the only things not labeled as "NEW" are the iPod, iBook, and eMac (and of course the old iMac). We know the new iPods are comming soon, and I think the iBook will be next (MAYBE a G4, who knows), and then maybe the eMac. I also just thought, that it is POSSIBLE that the Xserve will have the 970 before the PowerMac, but it has been upgraded fairly recently, so I don't know. Then again, so has the PowerMac. We may also see the introduction of the new Apple displays with the 970's release in Macs. By these, I mean the ones that incorperate Apple's new efforts in Speech Recognition. I don't know, maybe they will never come to fruit, but I think that they will. I bet we will see them in the iMac as well, since the casual user is the one who is most likely going to be using the speech recognition. I am really hopeful about this technology and think it will really help Apple in their quest to be better than Windows.

ok I can almost be certain that the announcement of the 970 will come at a MacWorld, and since Apple will not be around in NY this summer, it looks like Jan 2004 is the best date for it.

I think the 970 will start at 1.4GHZ for around $2000
and a dual 970 1.8GHZ will be $3500 and people will fork up the cash for one. Just look at the Dual 800 when that went for $3500 becuase it was so ahead of its time.

People will drool over a "G5" and pay whatever they can for one. I just hope apple decides to show up at MWNY this july. then maybe we'll have an early showing of the 970.

Tyler

<OFF TOPIC>

Originally posted by KingArthur
Look at Atri and Sega for example. Both seeing tough times now that they are software only.

Click to expand...

Atari as a company ceased to exist in 1996. The rights to the logo, name, and game collections have been passed from company to company since then (currently owned by Infogrames).

</OFF TOPIC>

Originally posted by TyleRomeo
ok I can almost be certain that the announcement of the 970 will come at a MacWorld, and since Apple will not be around in NY this summer, it looks like Jan 2004 is the best date for it.

Click to expand...

Ok, let's get this straight.....Apple WILL be at MWNY '03 this year. They will be there, just like last year. What is in question is whether Apple will attend MacWorld Boston in 2004, not this year.

Notwithstanding, it is unlikely that Apple would announce the 970 at MWNY '03 despite them attending. The 970 probably won't be ready. So, even though questioning your logic, I'd agree with your conclusion. No announcement on the "G5" until MWSF '04.

Originally posted by Freg3000
Ok, let's get this straight.....Apple WILL be at MWNY '03 this year. They will be there, just like last year. What is in question is whether Apple will attend MacWorld Boston in 2004, not this year.

Notwithstanding, it is unlikely that Apple would announce the 970 at MWNY '03 despite them attending. The 970 probably won't be ready. So, even though questioning your logic, I'd agree with your conclusion. No announcement on the "G5" until MWSF '04.

Click to expand...

well i hope apple will show up at MWNY2003 because i will be there. and im sure apple will release details on the 970, they just wont release a G5 some random tuesday, it will be a big announcement.

Tyler

Well, I think Apple is going to continue to drop their prices - and that the 970 will make it easier to do so.

IBM is a much more efficient company than Motorola when it comes to chip manufacture, so I have a feeling that prices will drop on the CPUs as compared to the G4. Now the motherboard manufacture may be slightly more expensive, but I think it'll even out and the prices will drop by $100-200 more on most models.

does anyone know the prices of the IBM 970 chips?

or they aren't posted yet

Tyler

Originally posted by Mr. MacPhisto
IBM is a much more efficient company than Motorola when it comes to chip manufacture, so I have a feeling that prices will drop on the CPUs as compared to the G4.

Click to expand...

My opinion is that instead of passing off the savings to the consumer, Apple would be more than happy to keep the money themselves.

Now the motherboard manufacture may be slightly more expensive, but I think it'll even out and the prices will drop by $100-200 more on most models.

Click to expand...

A price drop of $100 to $200 would only be a normal price drop. Every time Apple updates their hardware, they drop the price by $100 or so.

If they really wanted to pass along the savings, they would have to drop the price by about $300 to $400.