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MacRumors
Jul 17, 2006, 03:15 PM
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The Mac Observer reports (http://www.macobserver.com/stockwatch/2006/07/17.1.shtml) comments by financial analysts from Piper Jaffray and American Technology Research regarding Apple's upcoming Q3-2006 financial results (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/07/20060710170700.shtml), to be webcast (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq306/) this Wednesday, July 19, at 2pm EDT.

They predict Apple sales results that are close to but slightly lower than the Wall Street consensus estimates, with iPod quarterly sales between 7.7 and 8.3 million units, Mac sales of 1.2 to 1.23 million units, and revenue of $4.6 billion and $0.48 earnings per share, compared to Wall Street estimates for revenue of $4.95 billion and $0.52 earnings per share.

From Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray:

We do believe Apple is working to release a new/refreshed iPod in the September quarter. If we are wrong, Apple will miss some back-to-school benefit, but ultimately, we are confident the company will not miss the critical pre-holiday window.

However, we believe the more critical component in the quarter will be Mac market share. If new/refreshed iPods are not slated to be released in the quarter, we believe starting in the September quarter investors will start to place increasing emphasis on changes in Mac market share, given the Intel transition will likely be complete. If Mac market share grows in the September quarter, we expect the Street will look past a potential delay in new iPods.
Shaw Wu of American Technology Research believes the back-to-school season will boost Apple revenue and earnings per share but that "weaker European seasonality" will dampen the effect. He predicts that Apple will ship a revised iPod nano in late September or in October.

VanMac
Jul 17, 2006, 03:21 PM
New IPods would be good.

Either way, as long as stock is up next year from this year, that is all I care.

alec
Jul 17, 2006, 03:22 PM
A revised iPod nano by September, but what is the fate of the video iPod and the Shuffle? Increased Mac market share is nice, but investors know the iPod is what is carrying AAPL right now...

JosiahPB
Jul 17, 2006, 03:24 PM
What do you think they will revise on the Nano?

JackSYi
Jul 17, 2006, 03:26 PM
I have a feeling Apple is not going to give iPods the attention it once had. They are now focusing their aims at the Mac platform.

WildCowboy
Jul 17, 2006, 03:27 PM
What do you think they will revise on the Nano?

Higher capacity...and rumors of a new magnesium alloy case.

KindredMAC
Jul 17, 2006, 03:30 PM
Look into the crystal ball.......
[cue the eery music]

Anawrahta
Jul 17, 2006, 03:44 PM
I sure hope the iPod gets some refreshment. I also hope TS is wrong with their speculation. If Apple doesn't come out with something new on that side of the business before Christmas their shares are going to take quite a hit.

danielwsmithee
Jul 17, 2006, 03:44 PM
Higher capacity...and rumors of a new magnesium alloy case.I can't wait for a 8GB magnessium iPod nano. My wife has been hinting for a nano for her birthday in late August.

ampd
Jul 17, 2006, 03:45 PM
OLED screens would sure be nice on the ipod line...

supremedesigner
Jul 17, 2006, 03:52 PM
blah blah blah about analyists. They always assumed too much.

ironic23
Jul 17, 2006, 04:43 PM
blah blah blah about analyists. They always assumed too much.

Haha. AAPL stock has done pretty well today. Let's just hope the new MacPros, Leopard and Nanos will blow the investor's minds away.

ChrisA
Jul 17, 2006, 04:46 PM
What is holding Apple's Mac sale back is the lack of universal binaries from Adobe. Why would any Photoshop user send money on a new Mac only to have their applaction run slower? Apple has little control over Adobe's schedule. Adobe is just one example. Apple is going to have to push the software companies harder to release the UBs if they want to sell Intel Macs

On the iPod front, I suspect that almost everyone who wants an iPod and can afford one already has an iPod. The new iPods would have to be really, really good to make make someone want to spend bucks to replace something they already have that works well. I see no reason to spend $250 to replace my 4GB mini with a 4Gb nano.

Detlev
Jul 17, 2006, 05:00 PM
What do you think they will revise on the Nano?
They are going to drop the whole "small" thing and produce the iPod Mammoth so they can install Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, FM radio, larger (is better) capacity, and hunkin-burnin' love style headphone jacks. All so they can compete with the forthcoming iPod killer from Microsoft. Oh yeah, they are going to get rid of the click wheel thingy and introduce knobs too.

No really...

OK, my take is they pretty much have the form factor set. Maybe an improvement in the display. Then, they could increase memory, but only as far as technology (inexpensive technology) will take them. That leaves services or the UI to work with. Something sweet in that area like web surfing would be nice.

narco
Jul 17, 2006, 05:03 PM
I think it'd make sense that Apple release new Macs before back to school, then new iPods before the holiday season. The iPod has a strong enough name to where students will still ask for the current one, which will let Apple show up whatever Microsoft plans on releasing before Christmas.

Fishes,
narco.

mozmac
Jul 17, 2006, 05:16 PM
Apple is making a great move by focusin on the Mac right now. They have been stacking the cards in their favor for the past six years...ever since OS X came out, and have been waiting for the right time to pounce. They feel they've found it, and that's what they're doing. I've had many friends and family members tell me they're considering an Intel iMac and ask me about them. These are people that used to make fun of me for owning a Mac. The advertising is starting to work. I'd love to see Apple come out with a slew of new updates to their systems to basically say, "Hey, PC world. Up yours! See if you can keep up now."

The iPod is strong and can stay there. They have their focus where it needs to be...where their strongest, longterm potential lies...the Mac. Let's face it, the iPod is awesome, but is it going to be the dominating gadget 20 years from now? There will be a completely new technology out. How about the Mac? Computers are going to remain the center of our digital lifestyle for a long, long time, which is right where Apple wants them.

shawnce
Jul 17, 2006, 05:16 PM
I have a feeling Apple is not going to give iPods the attention it once had. They are now focusing their aims at the Mac platform.
The reality is that Apple is a large company with a large amount of cash flowing into R&D... they can focus on many things at once (they have fewer products for the amount of R&D they spend compared to several other companies).

Philberttheduck
Jul 17, 2006, 05:40 PM
I hope to hell they update it before school starts. The summer quarter looked pretty bad compared to its previous because it was steadily increasing and then DROP. let's hope they do it right this time and RELEASE THE FS TOUCH (not voice dammit) IPOD!! Nano with video capabilities seems overkill on such a tiny screen but if they've done pictures theres nothing to stop them from video. those magnesium casings should seal the deal for previous mini owners. lets just hope they can utilize a lil bigger screen on those nanos.

can't wait for a new UI too.

this just in.. iphone gets released holiday! if only..

manic
Jul 17, 2006, 06:10 PM
The iPod is strong and can stay there. They have their focus where it needs to be...where their strongest, longterm potential lies...the Mac.

I entirely agree. iPod is important, but to apples merit, its becoming a saturated market and its not going to carry the stock forever, at least as it has. It has catapulted apple, but in the longterm, apple will have to make a living out of macs. And I think there was never a better time to be a mac owner. Its like all the stars have (or are in the imminence of being) aligned. Apple has the strongest lineup ever, solid, mature OS and hardware, has ironed out compatibility issues and is affordable. People, specially consumers, will be switching out of inertia as they replace their old computers for new ones.

IJ Reilly
Jul 17, 2006, 06:56 PM
Going way out on a limb... my prediction is that laptop sales are going to significantly beat forecasts, and at least partially make up for slower iPod sales growth.

iDrinkKoolAid
Jul 17, 2006, 07:03 PM
Apple please shoot for 10% market share so that Macs will be more relevant.

Here's to hope that Dell and Micro$oft will keep on sucking, to Apple's advantage. :)

tny
Jul 17, 2006, 07:10 PM
What is holding Apple's Mac sale back is the lack of universal binaries from Adobe. Why would any Photoshop user send money on a new Mac only to have their applaction run slower? .

I did. Even under Rosetta, it runs marginally faster (on a MacBook - not a pro machine!) than on my 3-year old G5. When the universal version comes out, I expect to see major increases (just about the time I'll be replacing the G5).

blueflame
Jul 17, 2006, 08:56 PM
i really think apple is doing better than they can even account for, they really are the buzz word. everyone wants them, its just a matter of people waiting for thier upgrade cycle to buy new computers. i do really think though, that if they just gae away free ipods with all the new co puters, so many more people would buy not just edu

Super Dave
Jul 17, 2006, 09:09 PM
I have a feeling Apple is not going to give iPods the attention it once had. They are now focusing their aims at the Mac platform.

I totally disagree. At WWDC, maybe, but everywhere else they will continue with the iPod. They have 3 business units to my knowledge (software, hardware, iPod), and they seem to give equal focus to all 3, though the media cares more about the iPod.

David:cool:

Compatiblepoker
Jul 17, 2006, 10:35 PM
I hope Apple focuses more on their platforms now. The iPod gave the market more customer awareness of the quality of Apple products and now when they come out with newer and better platforms they have more of an edge in the past.

Lollypop
Jul 18, 2006, 12:22 AM
When are the anylists going to predict a good year for apple, since the intel transition all of them have had gloom and doom predictions for earnings. Apple has proven they can stradle two different processor architecures without any big issues.

On the revised ipod front, I agree with most people here, apple doesnt need to release a new ipod till end of year, but they can spend more time working on more components to the iPod ecosystem, revised airport express, new stores in new countries... the US and the EU might be saturated with iPods, but I know over here they can still capture a entire emerging market. And have similair sales and keep their profits high, even though they are seeing non-increasing sales in their local market.

Proud Liberal
Jul 18, 2006, 07:37 AM
A: The firm that hired me wants to short --> I will predict earnings results that are definitely too high so the company disappoints and the share price drops.

B: My firm that hired me wants to sell --> I will predict earnings results that are definitely low enough so the company can beat them and the share price goes up.

C: In general, no matter what a company does, I'll bitch. If they don't invest, I'll bitch that they're falling behind. If they do invest, I'll bitch that they are wasting money.

D: I may only be in my twenties and have never worked in a real job in the industry I am "analyzing" but of course I know better than anyone else what the company should or shouldn't do!

that is priceless & spot on!

EagerDragon
Jul 18, 2006, 03:46 PM
More than likely they will exceed in the Mac sales. So the number will round nicely.