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MacBytes
Jul 29, 2006, 03:43 PM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Is a 'Perfect Storm' of Mac Sales on the Horizon? (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20060729164346)
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Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
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IJ Reilly
Jul 29, 2006, 04:03 PM
Wishful thinking, but I like it. ;)

dbhays
Jul 29, 2006, 04:23 PM
I am waiting to see if the mini will get an upgrade. I am looking to buy two of them (my PC just crashed big time, and my brother's did too). Thank god for my trusty ibook g3)

Mal
Jul 29, 2006, 07:06 PM
Actually, I don't see a lot of wishful thinking there, just a lot of good observations. Made a lot of sense to me, and I think we're set to see a huge upswing in Apple's marketshare, and hopefully the extra income and image boost will be the incentive it takes for them to bring some more risky projects to light. I think the next decade is going to be a very interesting one for the computer industry as a whole, and Apple is going to be at the forefront or else disappear entirely (obviously, I'm leaning toward the former).

jW

IJ Reilly
Jul 29, 2006, 11:26 PM
Wishful thinking, to the extent that an OSX upgrade will drive Mac sales. Leopard will be the fifth major update to OSX in almost as many years, yet it's difficult to argue that any one of them have improved the Mac's market share thus far. The Windows Vista delay benefiting Apple is also quite speculative, if only because Vista is already not highly anticipated by PC users, and is not in itself likely to boost new PC sales substantially. The place where I think he's right on is the pro side of Mac hardware. A lot of pent-up demand in this part of the Mac market, waiting for the new Intel machines. Apple could get a short-term boost here, just has they have with laptops so far this year. But they have to find a way to hang onto the increase if it's going to be a meaningful gain instead of just a one-time goose.

wedge antilies
Jul 30, 2006, 07:22 AM
I don't think this article is wishful thinking at all. Tha author is 100% correct in summation that when Adobe upgrades their software to Universal, there will be a huge jump in pro sales. I know four of my friends waiting to upgrade. I only upgraded to my new iMac, as it was the new fin. year in Aust, and my company upgrades my computer from G4. If I had had a G5, I would have not got an intel iMac.
Apple is in for a HUGE year. :-)

MacSA
Jul 30, 2006, 07:46 AM
I am waiting to see if the mini will get an upgrade. I am looking to buy two of them (my PC just crashed big time, and my brother's did too). Thank god for my trusty ibook g3)

Im waiting to buy a Mini too....

dmw007
Jul 30, 2006, 08:16 AM
Apple is in for a HUGE year. :-)

I think so too, go Apple! :D :)

IJ Reilly
Jul 30, 2006, 11:21 AM
I don't think this article is wishful thinking at all. Tha author is 100% correct in summation that when Adobe upgrades their software to Universal, there will be a huge jump in pro sales. I know four of my friends waiting to upgrade. I only upgraded to my new iMac, as it was the new fin. year in Aust, and my company upgrades my computer from G4. If I had had a G5, I would have not got an intel iMac.
Apple is in for a HUGE year. :-)

Since you don't seem to find any grounds to disagree with the specific points where I thought the article deals in wishful thinking, and only agreed with the one where I thought it wasn't wishful thinking... then I don't see where we depart.

Anyway, I agree Apple will sell a lot more pro Macs over the coming year, particularly when the pro applications go dual-binary. But I also need to point out that this could easily be a one-time hit on Mac sales, as current owners of pro hardware dump their old Macs for new Macs. It won't necessarily represent a growth in market share unless Apple can convert Windows users to Mac users. This has always been the tougher nut to crack, and I don't think Morgenstern has made a truly compelling case for why this hardware transition is different than any of the others which came before in that respect. I wish Apple had a real plan for this, but other than running ad campaigns, I haven't really seen one yet.

BenRoethig
Jul 30, 2006, 12:52 PM
I can only see one way of converting windows users to the Apple fold, buying a smaller PC company into the fold. Take Velocity Micro for example, they're well respected for quality, have a similar sense of style to Apple, have a fuller lineup than Apple, and have a distribution agreement with best buy. Add a MATX model with standard intergrated graphics and sell it at best buy and we'd have a winner. Best of both worlds. However, it'd require a lot of hardcore Mac users to admit that Apple doesn't have all the answers for all computer users.

dbhays
Jul 30, 2006, 01:49 PM
Im waiting to buy a Mini too....

I know it's not the best machine out there, but it is too cool :cool:. Besides, I want to still run windows sometimes and this machine will do just fine.

spicyapple
Jul 30, 2006, 01:56 PM
I think PC users are starting to realize the replacement for Vista is really OSX Tiger. For me, it's a no brainer. Now if we can get PC-only developers to develop for the Mac, things might change. But naturally, a lot of people are wary of a single company controlling both the hardware and software, so maybe that's why Macs will never dominate against the PC/Windows/Linux platform.

golferjh3
Jul 30, 2006, 02:21 PM
Everyone's been saying this for like, 2 years.

rjwill246
Jul 30, 2006, 03:39 PM
Everyone's been saying this for like, 2 years.

Actually longer than that, and that is because logic would dictate that many PC users should have switched a long time ago - but they didn't.
You have read all the arguments why and why not.. some valid, some not. But Apple has done one thing and that is it bottomed out and has begun to climb. This is highly significant since it is the first time in over a decade that it has gained market-share. There is no doubt that the iPod has had some halo effect.

There is so much more positive press than ever before, PC magazines actually rate Macs now and they have been very well received, more novice Mac users are going into Apple stores in record numbers, the switch to Intel has brought nothing but a positive aura to the platform and atypical users are beginning to show interest in the Mac, and that includes non-Mac developers.

Now, it hasn't bought Apple 10% market share but without the above Apple would have gone to less than 1% by now, so observation implies that Apple is gaining traction. It will be slow, as was its decline, but this is really a different Mac world.

miniConvert
Jul 30, 2006, 03:57 PM
I think the article could be right on the money. From my personal experience I could believe that, providing Apple is quick to rectify the teething problems that have existed with the Intel transition this far, the perfect storm really is a possibility.

winmacguy
Jul 30, 2006, 09:20 PM
I don't think this article is wishful thinking at all.
Apple is in for a HUGE year. :-)
2007 will be a biggy for Apple. The stock price is starting to come back to where I purchased mine at. There are a number of factors that are going to come into play:
The continued delays in releasing Vista
Intel can supply MORE than enough chips for Apple
Power Macs and Xserves being updated to run on Intel
The most crucial of all Mac applications coming out as a Universal Binary
The continued and increasing interest of Windows users in the Mac platform

That would be the top 5 things I can think of.

IJ Reilly
Jul 30, 2006, 09:59 PM
I've got to ask, for those who think the delay in shipping Vista will matter to Apple. Why?

rikers_mailbox
Jul 30, 2006, 10:59 PM
I've got to ask, for those who think the delay in shipping Vista will matter to Apple. Why?

I've got to answer... If your old car (http://www.myphotographs.net/usa/image57.html) broke down and it needed to be replaced, would you buy the same model car you just got rid of? Or would you rather shop around for newer, nicer, more featured cars that maybe even cost the same (or less!) than the car being replaced?

OS X and Macs provide that option to consumers who need to replace tired old (and virus-infested) computers. And nothing makes computers feel more old, tired, and slow than spiffy new processors (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/07/20060727103453.shtml).

Now, Vista may not even be close to offering what even Tiger offers now, but we don't know that. Some PC users will still hold out for Vista under the assumption that it will be awesome. But there has got to be a sub-set that looks at OS X and thinks, "dag, yo (http://www.homestarrunner.com/tgs11.html). i could have an awesome computer now, and I need one now, so why wait?"

Why wait, indeed.

BenRoethig
Jul 30, 2006, 11:23 PM
I think PC users are starting to realize the replacement for Vista is really OSX Tiger. For me, it's a no brainer. Now if we can get PC-only developers to develop for the Mac, things might change. But naturally, a lot of people are wary of a single company controlling both the hardware and software, so maybe that's why Macs will never dominate against the PC/Windows/Linux platform.

From an OS viewpoint, OSX's only real drawback is that's tied to niche hardware.

rikers_mailbox
Jul 30, 2006, 11:48 PM
From an OS viewpoint, OSX's only real drawback is that's tied to niche hardware.

For the sake of argument... what if next generation OSs relied on that tie between OS and hardware to deliver otherwise impossible integration? Does this give OS X an advantage?

Multipoint touch-screen, or "none-touch" (or whatever) and gestures seem like it would require a fair amount of hardware/software integration. The kind demonstrated by iPod/iTunes.

winmacguy
Jul 31, 2006, 12:44 AM
I've got to ask, for those who think the delay in shipping Vista will matter to Apple. Why? Since Leopard will most likely be able to run side by side with XP I think this will have some degree of knock-on effect with people and IT departments who are looking to add and upgrade their hardware thus causeing them to be able to add an Intel Mac while 'waiting' for Vista to arrive thus expanding the Mac user base.

IJ Reilly
Jul 31, 2006, 01:21 AM
I've got to answer... If your old car (http://www.myphotographs.net/usa/image57.html) broke down and it needed to be replaced, would you buy the same model car you just got rid of? Or would you rather shop around for newer, nicer, more featured cars that maybe even cost the same (or less!) than the car being replaced?

OS X and Macs provide that option to consumers who need to replace tired old (and virus-infested) computers. And nothing makes computers feel more old, tired, and slow than spiffy new processors (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/07/20060727103453.shtml).

Now, Vista may not even be close to offering what even Tiger offers now, but we don't know that. Some PC users will still hold out for Vista under the assumption that it will be awesome. But there has got to be a sub-set that looks at OS X and thinks, "dag, yo (http://www.homestarrunner.com/tgs11.html). i could have an awesome computer now, and I need one now, so why wait?"

Why wait, indeed.

Even if I accepted the analogy, and I think it has some issues, I don't see where the question's been answered. I expect most savvy Windows users know from hard experience that the first version (at least) of any new edition Windows is essentially a beta, and will break a lot of their old software. And I have yet to hear anyone say, "If Microsoft doesn't release Vista soon, I'm going to buy a Mac!" Have you?

I wish it weren't true, but it is. Microsoft could futz around with Vista from now until 2009 and it wouldn't make a significant difference to Apple.

IJ Reilly
Jul 31, 2006, 01:34 AM
Since Leopard will most likely be able to run side by side with XP I think this will have some degree of knock-on effect with people and IT departments who are looking to add and upgrade their hardware thus causeing them to be able to add an Intel Mac while 'waiting' for Vista to arrive thus expanding the Mac user base.

Possibly, but this seems to be quite a marginal opportunity to me, and is predicated on some degree of "waiting" for Vista, and I don't know anyone who's crossing off days on their calendars in anticipation. Apple can release five new versions of the MacOS in the time it takes Microsoft to release one of Windows. This has been going on for a long time, but it never seems to make much difference, except to those of us who own Macs and count on Apple to come up with steady improvements.

Windows users don't care about the latest release of OSX; the vast majority probably don't even know it's happened. In fact many if not most Windows users aren't more than dimly aware that the Mac even exists, let alone whether Leopard beat Vista to the market. This is the problem Apple needs to solve.

Belly-laughs
Jul 31, 2006, 04:27 AM
I believe the hardware switch that many will have to make in order to run Vista is the key. If informed enough, they may pick up new hardware that has an OS that delivers what Longhorn promised and that can run their old copy of XP.

Lollypop
Jul 31, 2006, 04:33 AM
Windows users don't care about the latest release of OSX; the vast majority probably don't even know it's happened. In fact many if not most Windows users aren't more than dimly aware that the Mac even exists, let alone whether Leopard beat Vista to the market. This is the problem Apple needs to solve.

I was thinking the exact same thing, its nice that apple advertises the platfrom, but they really need to inform the public that there is an alternative to vista thats going to be released before vista! People might know about vista, and the mac but they have very little indept knowledge, some of the people here at work still go "oooo" when I use expose, even though its a rather old feature for the mac os, point is apple needs to make people aware of the advanced features before vista is finally released and the people go "oh, vista does that as well"

I personally think the next few months will be good for apple, all they need to do is try and keep up the momentum and they will do very very well.

netdog
Jul 31, 2006, 04:43 AM
It's the change to Intel-based architecture in really great packages that is going to fuel the rennaisance of Apple. It's already happening. The Apple Store on Regent Street has been jam-packed ever since the first Intel iMacs rolled in, and it only increased with the MacBook. If they can do the same for a redesigned MacBook Pro, Apple is on their way!

Moe
Jul 31, 2006, 06:20 AM
It's the change to Intel-based architecture in really great packages that is going to fuel the rennaisance of Apple. It's already happening.

I agree. For many, including me, a Mac wasn't an option (VPC aside), because of some special Windows software requirement. Intel and BootCamp fixed that and I switched back again with two new ones this year. It also takes away the "what if I don't like OS-X" fear, since running Windows as primary is an option.

The Apple Store on Regent Street has been jam-packed ever since the first Intel iMacs rolled in, and it only increased with the MacBook. If they can do the same for a redesigned MacBook Pro, Apple is on their way!

Exposure to the PC crowd is also a big issue, and the Apple stores help. So does the increase in the installed base, especially from new switchers. We see new ones every day on this and other Mac forums.

IJ Reilly
Jul 31, 2006, 10:31 AM
Exposure to the PC crowd is also a big issue, and the Apple stores help. So does the increase in the installed base, especially from new switchers. We see new ones every day on this and other Mac forums.

The Apple stores do help, in the areas where Apple has stores at least. But I think based on the market-share numbers, it's apparent that the stores have only succeeded in stemming the decline and not in building significant new market share. It was years ago when Steve said his goal was doubling the Mac's market share, which was around 5% at the time. It actually went down after that. The Intel Macs may help create a comfort zone for potential switchers, but I'm going to wait for Leopard to arrive and to see how dual booting is supported. The current method is pretty geek-driven -- absolutely not for ordinary users.

Mainly, though, what I'm saying is, let's not get too excited about any short-term hardware sales gains that come from pro users replacing old Mac with new Macs. That's just pent-up demand, not new Mac owners, which is what the platform really needs. I'd like to see Apple implement a solid plan for doing that.

shelterpaw
Jul 31, 2006, 03:35 PM
Actually longer than that, and that is because logic would dictate that many PC users should have switched a long time ago - but they didn't.
Right, but a long time ago they weren't running Intel processors. Now they can buy a Mac and test drive OS X and if they don't like it, it's not a whole machine out the window, they just have to replace the OS (bootcamp). This will entice new users if it hasn't already.

emw
Jul 31, 2006, 03:47 PM
I wish it weren't true, but it is. Microsoft could futz around with Vista from now until 2009 and it wouldn't make a significant difference to Apple.And why is that? In my opinion it's because the PC market share isn't determined solely by what features are available in the newest Mac or Windows OS - it's determined by IT departments and what business critical software is running.

That is, windows market-place dominance, I think, is still a result of business purchasing and continued development of Windows-based applications because that's what developers know. Or, at least, what IT departments want them to know.

Many home users have no idea what or when the next OS (Mac or Windows) is coming out - those of us participating in these forums are more educated than most, but I know that my parents, friends, co-workers, have no idea unless I tell them about it. Home users typically know about what they see at work, which is Windows, and they assume that if they get Windows at home they'll either (a) better understand how to use the computer, or (b) be able to steal software from the office.

In the end, an OS upgrade does very little to drive market share because it's not really about the OS at all.

BenRoethig
Jul 31, 2006, 04:46 PM
And why is that? In my opinion it's because the PC market share isn't determined solely by what features are available in the newest Mac or Windows OS - it's determined by IT departments and what business critical software is running.

That is, windows market-place dominance, I think, is still a result of business purchasing and continued development of Windows-based applications because that's what developers know. Or, at least, what IT departments want them to know.

Many home users have no idea what or when the next OS (Mac or Windows) is coming out - those of us participating in these forums are more educated than most, but I know that my parents, friends, co-workers, have no idea unless I tell them about it. Home users typically know about what they see at work, which is Windows, and they assume that if they get Windows at home they'll either (a) better understand how to use the computer, or (b) be able to steal software from the office.

In the end, an OS upgrade does very little to drive market share because it's not really about the OS at all.

It's also about practicality. Apple doesn't offer any affordable machines that are easily serviceable. What they offer is a piece of art for a very specific crowd.

Squire
Aug 1, 2006, 11:50 PM
I've got to ask, for those who think the delay in shipping Vista will matter to Apple. Why?
...I wish it weren't true, but it is. Microsoft could futz around with Vista from now until 2009 and it wouldn't make a significant difference to Apple.

I bet the average PC user doesn't even know what "Vista" is.

-Squire

Lollypop
Aug 2, 2006, 12:42 AM
I wish it weren't true, but it is. Microsoft could futz around with Vista from now until 2009 and it wouldn't make a significant difference to Apple.

I disagree, windows people will be swayed by Vista with all the security crap in the OS, with everyone (for a period at least) thinking that Vista is secure the mac's secure nature will be overlooked and dispelled as "been there done that", that in my opinion is difference for Apple, dont know about isgnificant, but definately a difference.

IJ Reilly
Aug 2, 2006, 12:57 AM
I bet the average PC user doesn't even know what "Vista" is.

Perhaps not yet, but Microsoft will make sure that they will when the time comes.

IJ Reilly
Aug 2, 2006, 01:05 AM
I disagree, windows people will be swayed by Vista with all the security crap in the OS, with everyone (for a period at least) thinking that Vista is secure the mac's secure nature will be overlooked and dispelled as "been there done that", that in my opinion is difference for Apple, dont know about isgnificant, but definately a difference.

Hardly anybody needs to be sold on Vista, any more than they were sold on XP, or 98 or whatever version of the OS Microsoft decides to push through the OEM channels in any given year. It's what you get when you buy a new PC, and since the vast majority of people never consider buying anything else, that's what they will get. Apple needs a better strategy to get people to jump off the Windows wagon, and so far just releasing a newer-better version of the MacOS every year or so hasn't done it. This is why I don't think the release of Vista matters much to the Mac's market share, whether Microsoft ships it now or a year from now.

Lollypop
Aug 2, 2006, 03:12 AM
Hardly anybody needs to be sold on Vista, any more than they were sold on XP, or 98 or whatever version of the OS Microsoft decides to push through the OEM channels in any given year. It's what you get when you buy a new PC, and since the vast majority of people never consider buying anything else, that's what they will get. Apple needs a better strategy to get people to jump off the Windows wagon, and so far just releasing a newer-better version of the MacOS every year or so hasn't done it. This is why I don't think the release of Vista matters much to the Mac's market share, whether Microsoft ships it now or a year from now.

Good point! I dont usually do OEM, build my own PC, and either use the previous version of windows that I had or get the newest one when its released. Apple really needs to get more people aware of the alternative, and the current add campain really isnt doing it.

BenRoethig
Aug 2, 2006, 08:35 AM
Hardly anybody needs to be sold on Vista, any more than they were sold on XP, or 98 or whatever version of the OS Microsoft decides to push through the OEM channels in any given year. It's what you get when you buy a new PC, and since the vast majority of people never consider buying anything else, that's what they will get. Apple needs a better strategy to get people to jump off the Windows wagon, and so far just releasing a newer-better version of the MacOS every year or so hasn't done it. This is why I don't think the release of Vista matters much to the Mac's market share, whether Microsoft ships it now or a year from now.

Windows has the advantage of being just good enough for most while existing on the hardware they want to buy. Apple needs to find to make the Mac platform more appealing to conventional users while still catering to the hardcore Mac fanboys.

IJ Reilly
Aug 2, 2006, 10:50 AM
Windows has the advantage of being just good enough for most while existing on the hardware they want to buy. Apple needs to find to make the Mac platform more appealing to conventional users while still catering to the hardcore Mac fanboys.

They have to get the word out that the Mac even exists. This may sound preposterous to us, but a substantial number of Windows users aren't more than dimly aware of the existence of the Mac alternative, and even if they are, they have absolutely no knowledge about it.

I recently had the experience of putting together a community education course on OSX at my local junior college. When I called the college to propose the course, the first question was "what program is OSX?" I actually had to explain that it was the Macintosh operating system. I think they were kind of amazed when people signed up for the course!

Venturing out of the Mac ghetto gives one perspective. You quickly learn that Apple still has a lot of work to do to reach out to the other 90%.

BenRoethig
Aug 2, 2006, 11:48 AM
Uh, most PC users I know are very much aware of the Mac's existence. Many would them have said they'd love to ditch windows for OSX. However, they took one glance at the iMac and Mini and said no thanks. What is of interest to most is the stability and elegance of the operating system and iLife.