PDA

View Full Version : Will Jobs's departure cut Apple to the core?


MacBytes
Jul 31, 2006, 07:43 AM
http://www.macbytes.com/images/bytessig.gif (http://www.macbytes.com)

Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Will Jobs's departure cut Apple to the core? (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20060731084315)
Description:: none

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

PCMacUser
Jul 31, 2006, 07:53 AM
Interesting article, although it's purely hypothetical speculation...

59031
Jul 31, 2006, 08:09 AM
A stupid article with no reason for existing. The writer obiviously had nothing to write about so he wrote this.

Not worth reading.

dsnort
Jul 31, 2006, 08:13 AM
Interesting article, although it's purely hypothetical speculation...
I don't think it's hypothetical that Jobs won't be around forever. He could be gone tomorrow.

bigandy
Jul 31, 2006, 08:29 AM
I don't think it's hypothetical that Jobs won't be around forever. He could be gone tomorrow.

did you not know, he's found the secret to eternal life! a nice big RDF! :rolleyes:

jettredmont
Jul 31, 2006, 08:52 AM
There's no equivalent to Ballmer or Ozzie at Apple. Or, if there is, the public has never seen them.

Umm, how about:

* Peter Oppenheimer (CFO)
* Tim Cook (COO)
* Phil Schilller (SVP, Marketing)
* Jon Rubenstein (SVP, iPod Div)
* Bertrand Sertlet (SVP, Software Engineering)

These are the guys highlighted on Google's AAPL page (http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=AAPL) that I, personally, can picture in my head, having viewed a handful of MacWorld and WWDC keynotes (although I've also personally met Oppenheimer and his predecessor Fred Anderson, which is probably why I can picture him quite clearly, 'cause they've never to my knowledge taken the keynote stage :) I can also hear his voice in my head from the financial calls, but that's probably not quite the same.)

If the article writers don't know these guys, it's because they don't follow Apple. People that don't follow Microsoft's every move didn't know Ballmer or Ozzie either. [Edit: okay, well, they knew Ballmer from his Monkey Dance videos, but, umm, that's more as an object of ridicule than as a potential multi-billion-dollar company leader]

Stupid fluff article.

Will Apple suffer when Jobs steps aside? I'd say absolutely. He is a highly public figure, a sounding board for Apple employees (What Would Jobs Do?), and charismatic leader. Apple employees know that if they can get Jobs on board with their project (and more than one has "disappeared" trying...) then they will have won in the market as well; if Jobs believes in something, then the public will (by and large) also believe in it, and even a silly idea will get more traction than it, perhaps, deserves. I mean, Pages? Losing that leadership and RDF is a real, tangible, loss to the company. It will, when it happens (knock on wood), be felt.

Perhaps Microsoft, which has been suffering extensively these last several years as Gates has antagonizingly slowly "stepped aside", isn't what Jobs should aspire towards in this regard. Had Microsoft only Apple's war chest, they'd be dead already; the only thing keeping them afloat through the "transition" from Gates is the massive war chest which gives them a good long time before they have to figure out how to charge the troops and innovate. [Edit: added:] Example: they just (this April) spent $2.7 billion (approximately half of Apple's war chest if I recall correctly) on "new initiatives" which are not expected to reap any rewards for several years (if indeed ever). Apple doesn't have the luxury of floundering around like Microsoft has been since Gates lost interest in the mid-90s. They'd be out of money and taking Michael Dell's advice a year later.

All in all, the authors seem to have their heads up their (respective, I hope) asses, taking an obvious logical truism (someday Jobs will not head Apple, and that will affect Apple) and manufacturing an article which reaches the wrong conclusions because it adds to that kernel of truth the author's own misconceptions. BS in, BS out. Even when you mix it with obvious truisms, all you end up with is truthiness.

[Edit: changed a few objects and verbs around to recognize that this article wasn't the product of one deranged mind but, if you can believe it, two.]

Yvan256
Jul 31, 2006, 09:20 AM
Umm, how about:

* Peter Oppenheimer (CFO)
* Tim Cook (COO)
* Phil Schilller (SVP, Marketing)
* Jon Rubenstein (SVP, iPod Div)
* Bertrand Sertlet (SVP, Software Engineering)

My bet would be on Phil Schiller. Why? Because it's the only Apple person we see at most Keynotes (besides Steve Jobs). You wouldn't want a "nobody" (i.e. unknown to the public) to continue to represent the company.

That's why Steve is always doing some demo parts with Phil.

All IMHO, of course.

PlaceofDis
Jul 31, 2006, 09:23 AM
Phil or Ives. both have worked closely with Jobs i gather and could continue the success of the company without compromising the goals that Jobs would have had or set.

kwong2006
Jul 31, 2006, 09:31 AM
I think Ives will probably get it. He is the main architect behind the current computer designs for Apple, and he, arguably (along with Jobs, of course), made Apple the hip company that it is in this period of time.

whooleytoo
Jul 31, 2006, 09:53 AM
I think Ives will probably get it. He is the main architect behind the current computer designs for Apple, and he, arguably (along with Jobs, of course), made Apple the hip company that it is in this period of time.

I'd love to see an Ives keynote, I think he's very much in tune with the innovative nature of the company. When I think of the others, I picture Balmer-esque keynotes ("Developers..developers..developers...") :eek: Please no!

lonepilgrim
Jul 31, 2006, 10:21 AM
"There's no equivalent to Ballmer or Ozzie at Apple."

That's a good thing!!

redAPPLE
Jul 31, 2006, 10:30 AM
I'd love to see an Ives keynote, I think he's very much in tune with the innovative nature of the company. When I think of the others, I picture Balmer-esque keynotes ("Developers..developers..developers...") :eek: Please no!

the problem with johnny ives is... i damn have a problem under standing him... :o

Oryan
Jul 31, 2006, 10:39 AM
Okay, I don't need to see thread titles like this on Monday morning. I was like, "Jobs is leaving Apple!?!?!" :eek: :eek:

Well at least I'm awake now.

Bad Beaver
Jul 31, 2006, 11:06 AM
I won't even think about gracing the link with my hit. Link baitin' BS.

Silencio
Jul 31, 2006, 11:39 AM
I've only seen Ive speak in some "interview" clips that accompanied the introduction of new machines, speaking about the design. He has the building blocks to be a very effective public speaker, but he seems the more retiring/behind-closed-doors type.

Of the current Apple executive team, the guy I'd handicap to be the "first in line" is Tim Cook. He ran the company while Jobs was recovering from surgery, after all, and he's currently the only "Executive" vice president at the company. In such a scenario, people like Bertrand Serlet and Tony Fadell would play a more prominent role: one man can't replace Steve Jobs.

Jon Rubinstein left the company, though he is still doing some "consulting". Schiller seems the ineffectual sort, and hasn't even appeared in too many keynotes lately. I can't see him in the CEO chair.

SC68Cal
Jul 31, 2006, 11:40 AM
Not to be a grammar nazi, but there are some parts that clunk along.

'He's absolutely integral to the success of company,' said Conrad Roeber, partner at media consultancy Mediatique.


That's a big one.

59031
Jul 31, 2006, 12:13 PM
Ives would make a horrible CEO. He needs to stay where he is, working on industrial design.

Timepass
Jul 31, 2006, 12:36 PM
I think jobs leaving will really hurt apple and cut deep. Jobs is the person who brought that company from almost going under and leaving this world forever to where it is now. When he leaves a lot will change. The people faith in it will drop a lot. Come on there are people on these boards that almost worship the guy and treat almost anything he says as the words of a god.


I would exaple to see apple stock drop a lot and for sales of apple computers to drop some. Faith in the company will drop. How much I cannt say but losing a figure head like Jobs always hurts a company quite a bit.

jlewis2k1
Jul 31, 2006, 01:21 PM
Okay, I don't need to see thread titles like this on Monday morning. I was like, "Jobs is leaving Apple!?!?!" :eek: :eek:

Well at least I'm awake now.

or when you get home from work ... just makes you want to scream....

nagromme
Jul 31, 2006, 02:03 PM
Apple's next leader--whether she/he takes over tomorrow or in 2050, will do some things worse than Jobs. She/he will do some things BETTER. She/he will be a different person, and so some things will change. Like all change, the results will bother some people, and please others. Unique strengths of Jobs will have been lost, and unique strengths of someone else will emerge to benefit the Mac platform. She/he will stay for a short time or a long time, and then yet another CEO will appear. And then another. Some of these leaders will be bad, and Apple will have dark times again. Even with good leadership, every company faces challenges. Apple is likely to survive them, but even with Steve Jobs, nothing is ever certain. Apple might fail, be bought, change its name, or spin off the Mac line to Packard Bell 20 years from now. The Mac platform, separate from Apple, might live on from the sheer momentum of its large user base. There will be money to be made in keeping the Mac platform going, and so even if Jobs leaves and Apple sinks, there's a good chance that the platform will stay strong. Or maybe not. Maybe even Windows and UNIX and Linux will fade. Life is uncertain, but it goes on, even if you're a Mac user at the time Apple gets a new CEO.

Three things I AM sure of.

1. Apple is not such a train wreck that only one man can save it from the abyss.

2. Steve Jobs is not the only talented person at Apple, and CEO is not the only position that makes Apple create great products.

3. The strategies and lessons Steve Jobs has taught Apple aren't instantly forgotten the moment he steps down.

bryanc
Jul 31, 2006, 02:28 PM
Depending on the timing, and how it was set up, the loss of Jobs could be anything from a minor inconvenience to an unrecoverable catastrophe.

If it happened with no warning, right now, I'd give Apple about a 50% chance of surviving as an independent corporate entity, and about a 10% chance of continuing to dominate the industry the way they do now.

If, after establishing a new equilibrium in the industry, with a significant market share for Apple, and after a graceful phasing out of Jobs as the 'visionary' leader remaking the industry in his image, Jobs were to quietly announce his retirement, Apple might carry on as though nothing had changed.

Given that we're nowhere near a new equilibrium in the industry, and Jobs' apparent ego-centric personality (I've never met the man, so I'm basing this on what I've read in the media), I'd say the latter scenario is not currently very plausible.

However, I think Jobs came back to Apple to vindicate himself about computers being for people, not for corporations... to do so, he needed to change the whole industry. I think he's succeeding in tearing down the old paradigm, but it will take time for the new paradigm to establish itself. I don't think he'll leave voluntarily until he sees the new world order unfolding as he thinks it should. So, barring unfortunate medical contingencies, I think Jobs will be around at Apple for a long time.

Cheers

winmacguy
Jul 31, 2006, 03:36 PM
the problem with johnny ives is... i damn have a problem under standing him... :o
You Americans need to get out more.:p

MacsRgr8
Jul 31, 2006, 04:57 PM
if Steve were ever to go (please let that day never occur!! :eek: ), I'm sure Phil would be Steve's successor.
He's the one we know on stage next to Steve. Phil is the one he (mis)uses in the ol' G4 vs. Pentium shoot-outs (:D ), and Steve always introduces Phil on iChat AV first....

But, IMHO, I just can't see Phil doing "it". Apple does need that dictatorial visionair, who is charismatic aswell.
Anyone see Phil doing that, or being so?

Just let it not be some Pepsi guy....

appleguy
Jul 31, 2006, 06:10 PM
Who know when/if it will happen
who knows who it could be.
Maybe even Lisa:p

IJ Reilly
Jul 31, 2006, 06:20 PM
Schiller seems the ineffectual sort, and hasn't even appeared in too many keynotes lately.

He appeared at the last MacWorld in San Francisco. Schiller is always playing Tonto to Jobs' Lone Ranger. This doesn't mean he's being groomed as Steve's successor, but the article makes a good point: If not him, then somebody ought to be.

We've discussed this before, but as most everyone who follows (and attends) keynotes agrees, Steve has not been 100% since his cancer experience. Even if his health holds up, which is always a question once having had cancer, eventually he's going to decide that life is short and he doesn't have to work so hard, or that he wants to tighten up his golf game or something. He's already dumped Pixar. With Apple, it's only a matter of time. I can only hope he's nurturing executive talent, such that when the time comes for him to move on, that his leaving doesn't blow a huge hole in the company.

California
Jul 31, 2006, 06:21 PM
You Americans need to get out more.:p

No, actually the whacked Brit who wrote this article needs to be a real reporter and stop passing stupid "What if?" grammar school essays off as NEWS.