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MacBytes
Jan 19, 2007, 12:27 AM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Apple Falls From Grace (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20070119012702)
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Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug

technocoy
Jan 19, 2007, 12:45 AM
god these people are morons.

i don't know why i even bother to read these pieces anymore.

bartelby
Jan 19, 2007, 12:54 AM
Have you read her other stories?

I see a theme...

IJ Reilly
Jan 19, 2007, 10:33 AM
This is actually one of the more evenhanded and informed opinion pieces I've seen lately on AAPL. The markets had gotten ahead of themselves bidding up the stock price after the iPhone announcement. Some jitters setting in after a move like that are not uncommon, and especially with this stock, it can almost be expected. Gee, I wonder what happened to the people who were browbeating me for saying this very thing a couple of weeks ago? Hello? Do you want to talk about it now?

shamino
Jan 22, 2007, 01:09 PM
This is why I think Wall Street is run by complete idiots.

The company does everything right, nobody can point to any bad decision, sales are up to record levels, and profits are up to record levels. And what do the analysts say? They say "we think you should've done even better than that, so we're going to call you a failure and tell everyone to dump your stock."

WildCowboy
Jan 22, 2007, 01:19 PM
This is why I think Wall Street is run by complete idiots.

The company does everything right, nobody can point to any bad decision, sales are up to record levels, and profits are up to record levels. And what do the analysts say? They say "we think you should've done even better than that, so we're going to call you a failure and tell everyone to dump your stock."

Stock prices are heavily influenced by future expectations. Apple's less-than-rosy guidance (even a bit more conservative than usual) is causing a few jitters. Where you've been only matters so much; it's where you're going that people care about, and there is a little bit of uncertainty about AAPL right now. I'm not surprised at the pullback.

IJ Reilly
Jan 22, 2007, 01:27 PM
Stock prices are heavily influenced by future expectations. Apple's less-than-rosy guidance (even a bit more conservative than usual) is causing a few jitters. Where you've been only matters so much; it's where you're going that people care about, and there is a little bit of uncertainty about AAPL right now. I'm not surprised at the pullback.

Right, and the entire tech sector got slammed last week.

MonkeyClaw
Jan 22, 2007, 01:34 PM
Yea its not just Apple thats being hit but the enitre market is seeing drops. The economy is very touchy right now, somedays its good, others it just down right stinks. But the Dow Jones has been down over the past week. And like others have said, when big announcements happen, the stock always overinflates then sort of decompresses. In a few days, it will go back up a bit then reach an equlibrium.

If I was an investor, I'd be thrilled cause we all know its great stock to have and now its cheap relativly speaking :D

mkrishnan
Jan 22, 2007, 01:46 PM
Agreeing with IJ Reilly (and waiting for the world to end any minute now! :D ), yeah, this article was a relatively balanced analysis. And Apple was certainly less than clear about why they were dropping their forecast for the next quarter. In the long term, Apple's position is strong. In part, the drop in stock price may also result simply from skimming -- now is an excellent time to sell of some Apple stock and profit from it. Many large investors have specific processes, like if a stock rises x% in a short period of time, they skim 10% of their holdings to lock in profit on it. Eh. Life goes on.

If you're a real Apple Fanboy, now's a good time to buy some stock while the price is cooled off. ;)

shamino
Jan 22, 2007, 02:23 PM
Stock prices are heavily influenced by future expectations. Apple's less-than-rosy guidance (even a bit more conservative than usual) is causing a few jitters. Where you've been only matters so much; it's where you're going that people care about, and there is a little bit of uncertainty about AAPL right now. I'm not surprised at the pullback.
The problem is that these reports are based on things that Apple can't control.

You issue a report on where you think you'll be in a quarter. The analysts say "no, we think you can do five times better than that." People buy stock based on the analysts and ignore your own report. Then the quarter ends. You ended up making twice your own estimates. Your stock tanks, because people were expecting you to beat your estimates by 5 times.

It's a complete no-win situation. No matter how good you do, the analysts create impossible expectations and destroy you when you fail to break the laws of physics for them.

The only difference between this and a pump-and-dump scam is that the analysts get paychecks from big brokerage firms.

WildCowboy
Jan 22, 2007, 02:35 PM
It's a complete no-win situation. No matter how good you do, the analysts create impossible expectations and destroy you when you fail to break the laws of physics for them.

Seems to me that Apple blew past analysts' estimates this past quarter.

Analysts were expecting $0.78/share on $6.4 billion and Apple delivered $1.14/share on $7.1 billion.

When you absolutely destroy analysts' expectation in one quarter and then issue guidance significantly below their already-tempered expectations for the following quarter, questions will be raised. Yes, Apple guides conservatively, but they're forecasting a much bigger drop than people were expecting. Yes, those expectations are out of Apple's control, but they do represent a consensus of people who know the industry.

CEAbiscuit
Jan 22, 2007, 03:48 PM
This is why I do not invest in individual stocks anymore... article to article, and even within an article, too much volitility.

Either way, she looks like the last person I'd take stock advice from. She 's just aggregating a bunch of info from other geniuses. No analysis whatsoever.

IJ Reilly
Jan 22, 2007, 04:02 PM
Agreeing with IJ Reilly (and waiting for the world to end any minute now! :D ), yeah, this article was a relatively balanced analysis.

Surely a sign that end-times are upon us!

Either way, she looks like the last person I'd take stock advice from. She 's just aggregating a bunch of info from other geniuses. No analysis whatsoever.

With so much lousy analysis out there, I'll settle for balanced and reasonable.

Cybergypsy
Jan 22, 2007, 04:03 PM
Crap pure Crap......

CEAbiscuit
Jan 22, 2007, 04:06 PM
With so much lousy analysis out there, I'll settle for balanced and reasonable.

Bingo

igucl
Jan 22, 2007, 04:13 PM
The trouble I have with this article is that she gave it a completely deceptive title. Virtually everything that follows the title contradicts the title.

That is a pet peeve of mine. Don't trick me into wasting my time reading your stuff when you don't have anything of substance to say.