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sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 02:24 PM
If now a good time to buy stock in Apple? I have $4000 that I'm looking at investing somewhere, and knowing that the new 970's might be coming and the Apple store for Windows might happen, it seems like apple might really be going somewhere!

I'm an avid mac fan and follow all the news/rumors daily. what do you guys think? Is it a good time to invest?

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 02:31 PM
no! two reasons

1. "buy the rumor, sell the news." the 970 rumors have likely already pushed apple's stock higher. once it's announced, the stock will fall.

2. diversify. go get yourself a CFP (certified financial planner) to review your life situation and goals, then make diversified investment decisions based on that. diversification means lower risk.

pEZ
Jun 10, 2003, 02:37 PM
Whatever you do, don't stick all of that money in one place, especially Apple stock!!!

Apple is a great company, but it's not good to have a portfolio in only tech stocks, much less only ONE stock. Don't sectorize, bad idea.

Apple's price has already shot up because of the iTMS, this is an awful time to buy. Plus, according to Morningstar (http://www.morningstar.com), Apple's fair market value is only about $15 - $17 (USD) - their stock is hovering a fair bit over that right now.

Plus, as of the time of this post, Apple's stock is up around 1% today.

Buy low, sell high.

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 03:17 PM
But isn't the 970 just what apple needs to bump up their low powermac sales? If so, won't that make their stock go up? Is it too farfetched to think that it could be $70/share again by mid next year?

JPGR_Fan
Jun 10, 2003, 03:21 PM
Lot of good advice has been given above.

However, if you can afford to lose the money, and spend a lot of time reading these and other forums and news about Apple, owning the stock right now is a fun thing to do. If all the good things work out like they are poised to do (970, Panther, iPod, 15", FCP, cheap eMac, iTunes for everyone else, and more) then the earnings should be there. Plus, despite the wisdom on these forums, I'll bet there are more things out there that we don't know about. (I own the stock).

applemacdude
Jun 10, 2003, 03:27 PM
I just want some apple stock for the fun of it....where can i get some?...:)

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 03:47 PM
ok. Quick question. Say, I use ameritrade, and put 4G's in apple. Can't I buy it when it's 16.50 and sell it when it's 17.50 and make about $100. Can I do that? I'm new at this, sorry.

It sounds to me like that is a possibility. It's obviously not much money made, but over time it is.

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 03:48 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
But isn't the 970 just what apple needs to bump up their low powermac sales? If so, won't that make their stock go up? Is it too farfetched to think that it could be $70/share again by mid next year?

the market has already reacted to the 970 and iTunes for windows. i.e. they've already "bought the rumor."

if the 970 doesn't come to pass, the market will sell Apple a lot. if apple announces the 970 this summer, the market will sell apple a little -- "sell the news."

if one is going to speculate on market news, one must buy the stock _before_ wall street gets wind of it. then once the price goes up, sell the stock, well before the company in question announces anything.

****

of course, the smarter thing overall is to diversify, let professionals handle the investing (i.e. fund managers) and stay in for the long haul (stock market has the lowest risk over the long term, but still can give one nice gains).

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 03:49 PM
Originally posted by applemacdude
I just want some apple stock for the fun of it....where can i get some?...:)

you have to set up an investment account.

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
ok. Quick question. Say, I use ameritrade, and put 4G's in apple. Can't I buy it when it's 16.50 and sell it when it's 17.50 and make about $100. Can I do that?

yes, you'll make about $1/share. $4k will get you about 242 shares, so you'll make $242 minus:

- transaction fees
- capitol gains taxes

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 03:56 PM
Originally posted by JPGR_Fan
owning the stock right now is a fun thing to do. If all the good things work out like they are poised to do (970, Panther, iPod, 15", FCP, cheap eMac, iTunes for everyone else, and more) then the earnings should be there. Plus, despite the wisdom on these forums, I'll bet there are more things out there that we don't know about. (I own the stock).

yes, playing in the stock market can be fun. it's like gambling.

your point about future products is well taken, but consider this: how much innovation has apple done over, say, the past 5 years? and how has the market reacted?

the market liked the all-in-one imac. since then, the market hasn't seemed to care much.

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 03:59 PM
But won't the market like the new windows version of iTMS? Won't that make the stock rise?

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 04:01 PM
what if I want to sell 500 shares and no one buys them? does that happen?

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 04:03 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
But won't the market like the new windows version of iTMS? Won't that make the stock rise?

the market has already reacted to it.

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 04:06 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
what if I want to sell 500 shares and no one buys them? does that happen?

not really. any company listed on the nyse, nasdaq, etc. is plenty fluid enough.

even for some very small companies that trade OTC (over the counter), you can find buyers. heck, even companies that are so bad they were delisted can be traded OTC.

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 04:08 PM
thanks

sjjordan
Jun 10, 2003, 04:09 PM
ZimV20, is Ameritrade a good broker to use? I've heard scott Trade is pretty good too. what do you recommend?

Mblazened
Jun 10, 2003, 04:12 PM
i plan to buy stock before WWDC as well. Go for it! i think apple has a lot more up their sleeve than macbidoobie can predict, and i doubt the market has fully reacted to the rumors, most rumor mills cant even get their stories straight.

I think its a sure thing. Also, even if the stock doesn't go up, i certainly don't expect it to go down, so you don't stand to lose much, especially since apple's stock is pretty low anyway.

I made a bunch of money when they released ITMS...

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 04:14 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
ZimV20, is Ameritrade a good broker to use? I've heard scott Trade is pretty good too. what do you recommend?

uhhhh.... i'm not in any position to recommend online brokers. i have a CFP through whom i do nearly all my investing.

i do have an account w/ Vanguard, but that's only to buy their mutual funds. i.e. it's not an all-purpose broker.

chicagdan
Jun 10, 2003, 04:17 PM
But isn't the 970 just what apple needs to bump up their low powermac sales? If so, won't that make their stock go up? Is it too farfetched to think that it could be $70/share again by mid next year?

Wow, the bubble bursts but the psychology lives on. Repeat after me -- stock prices reflect earnings. So if you expect Apple to more that quadruple its earnings based on the 970, knock yourself out.

Apple has an incredibly loyal user based that replaces its equipment far more frequently than other PC manufacturers, but to quadruple earnings, Apple would need to sell a 970 this year to everyone who has ever owned an Apple. Right now I own two (a 17" iMac and a 12" PB.) I won't be buying a new computer for a very long time, no matter how fast the 970s turn out to be.

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 04:22 PM
Originally posted by Mblazened

I think its a sure thing. Also, even if the stock doesn't go up, i certainly don't expect it to go down, so you don't stand to lose much, especially since apple's stock is pretty low anyway.


there's the issue of the stock remaining flat, while the money could be working for you elsewhere.

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 04:26 PM
Originally posted by Mblazened

I made a bunch of money when they released ITMS...

had you been holding the stock for a long time or did you buy it just before?

and did you then sell the stock?

pEZ
Jun 10, 2003, 04:48 PM
I'm currently with Ameritrade, but I'm not too happy with them just because they raised their commission and I'm a very long-term small-dollar investor. I've heard very good things about ScottTrade, but whoever you go with, make sure and read all the fine print.

Word of warning - do NOT go with ShareBuilder or other companies that offer super low commissions like $4 or $5 a trade (USD) or less, because they only offer specific, limited stocks and funds of huge companies - you can't just buy stock in anyone you want. It's also not an instant trade, you order it, and like every Tuesday or something, they trade all of the orders as soon as the market opens. Sucks from the investors end.

No, I don't own Apple stock, and even though I'm in the market to buy stock in a new company other than what I own stock in now, I still won't buy Apple stock any time soon. I feel that the market will not have that violent of a reaction to ANYTHING they may release at WWDC, because it doesn't affect the entire technology sector that rigorously. I don't even think releasing iTunes for Windows will even have that great of an effect on the stock because the market has already reacted to the release of the iTMS in general.

Now, if they were to release an entirely different wild new thing that nobody had every tried before, such as the iTMS, then you'd have a big gainer on your hands. But an update to the PowerMac that affects an incredibly miniscule percentage of the world in a short period of time? I doubt that will do much. If anything, the release of the PPC 970 in a PowerMac will make IBM's stock go up.

Apple's stock is already way above it's fair value, in my opinion, and my money is better stashed elsewhere. Remember, fees and commissions suck - never end up cutting your losses if you can help it.

iJon
Jun 10, 2003, 04:48 PM
apple stock rarely does what it did when the music store came out. and it is still gradually crawling back down. you will always hear the people on this fourm before wwdc or macworld tell you to buy apple stock because new powermacs are coming but the stock usually falls. i would buy some before when it falls, and sit on it when the windows itunes comes out, that may do something, unless someone beats them to an easy music store.

iJon

eyelikeart
Jun 10, 2003, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by sjjordan
Is it too farfetched to think that it could be $70/share again by mid next year?

dude...I've been waiting 2 years for it to get to that point again.

It's naive to think shares will be worth that amount in a year. All of tech suffered from the comedown, and it's never going to be the same again. :(

If u want some advice, talk to a financial advisor (preferebly one u can trust) who can point u in directions that will guarantee u to make some money rather than take a chance on Apple stock gaining anything.

Angelus
Jun 10, 2003, 04:56 PM
I don't know alot about the stock market but i would say don't buy.About two weeks before the itms was released i contemplated buying some stock cos i had a feeling that it would go up.I didn't buy but the stock went up from about ?12 to ?18.It's now been floating at 17 i think but i can't see it going up more even if the 970 is released.
I tend to follow what someone else said earlier"Buy low,sell high"

Mblazened
Jun 10, 2003, 05:38 PM
i bought $1000 of apple stock before ITMS
i've made about $300 on it.
Not bad....

zimv20
Jun 10, 2003, 05:45 PM
Originally posted by Mblazened
i bought $1000 of apple stock before ITMS
i've made about $300 on it.
Not bad....

i'll try again...

how long before and did you actually sell it?

mactastic
Jun 10, 2003, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by applemacdude
I just want some apple stock for the fun of it....where can i get some?...:)

Try here if you just want some for the novelty of it.

http://www.oneshare.com/exec5/index.asp?

janey
Jun 10, 2003, 06:55 PM
*groan*
i should have sold my apple stock back in the late 1990's when it was waaaaay above $20
perhaps i should have sold last week when it was somewhere in the $17-18 area. :mad: :\ :p :( :p

if you want to own maybe one share of apple stock just for the heck of it, check out http://www.oneshare.com/

pEZ
Jun 10, 2003, 07:23 PM
You pay one hell of a high premium for OneShare to actually issue you a stock certificate though - if you just want to own stock without all the hoopla, you're better going through a broker.

wdlove
Jun 10, 2003, 08:28 PM
I have always had a fear of buying stock of any kind. It would cause me constant worry!

zimv20
Jun 11, 2003, 12:01 AM
Originally posted by wdlove
I have always had a fear of buying stock of any kind. It would cause me constant worry!

over the long term, the stock market is the safest investment (assuming you're well diversified, of course).

where long term > 10 years, but the longer one goes the lower the beta (the calculation used to express risk).

pEZ
Jun 11, 2003, 12:13 AM
No reason to be afraid of buying stock, it's just one big gambling scheme. As long as you're not a day trader, and you invest "long term" (my definition says about a year or more), then you're safe. You'll make better decisions as you go along.

Plus, if you're investing long term, you don't keep checking it every day unless you want to. I'd venture to guess I went for about 5 or 6 months without even looking at my holdings, because I didn't have to. I heard how the market was doing (poorly in this case), so I knew I had no reason to check.

You don't lose money until you sell the stock - otherwise it's just kinda sitting there until you sell higher than you bought it - minus the commission fees and taxes, of course.

zimv20
Jun 11, 2003, 12:21 AM
Originally posted by pEZ
I'd venture to guess I went for about 5 or 6 months without even looking at my holdings

i had a meeting w/ my CFP in april -- first i'd looked in over a year. happily, i'm doing much better than the market is overall.

i give credit to being well-diversified, having a good investment plan (i'm pretty conservative in this regard), and careful choosing of funds.

oh -- and not panicking.

Mblazened
Jun 11, 2003, 12:52 AM
i haven't sold the stock yet... but if i did, it would be about $300
Anyway, there is not much risk involved if you buy low.

zimv20
Jun 11, 2003, 12:59 AM
Originally posted by Mblazened
i haven't sold the stock yet... but if i did, it would be about $300
Anyway, there is not much risk involved if you buy low.

i may be splitting hairs here, but if you say you "made" money, that implies a sell (realized gains). rather, you're "up" $300 (unrealized gains).

there's a good chance that money will be gone by the end of the month.

Trimix
Jun 11, 2003, 01:04 AM
Never forget
The long term investor is in reality a short term punter whose speculative position just didn't work out :D

One more thing - Use your own head in making investment decisions and do NOT invest in a fund - the fund manager has to beat an index, most of them DO NOT.
So if you wish to invest in a fund, by the index against which it is measured, it is cheaper (you are not paying the fund manager).

Last (I am babbling already) we are too close to Apple to properly evaluate the impact a product announcement has on the stock price.
What for us is a milestone, G5 or whatever it will be called, is for the market just another computer.
However if ever Sony bought Apple, or Apple merged with Disney, well, that would be a different story.

Buy some stock in Apple and forget about it until you children go to college.
One, you have the fun of owning it, secondly, Apple might really be bought by Yahoo, Sony or Disney over the next 20 years, who knows...

zimv20
Jun 11, 2003, 01:41 AM
Originally posted by Trimix
Never forget
The long term investor is in reality a short term punter whose speculative position just didn't work out :D


hm. that's a tad cynical. actually, i've sold all my speculation positions (some at a pretty darn big loss) and wrote off the losses against gains elsewhere.


One more thing - Use your own head in making investment decisions and do NOT invest in a fund - the fund manager has to beat an index, most of them DO NOT.


but a lot of them do. like the ones i've got. this is something a lot of people say -- make your own investment decisions. the people who run funds do so more than full-time, have a team of investment experts, have access to information and tools that the average investor doesn't. and there's years of data for funds with which the user can make wise investment decisions.


So if you wish to invest in a fund, by the index against which it is measured, it is cheaper (you are not paying the fund manager).


one of my worst performing funds is my vanguard S&P 500 fund, even w/ fees taken into account.

Trimix
Jun 11, 2003, 02:04 AM
re on the fund managers beating the index, most of them do not and all of them do not in the long run. it is just human that their investment decisions will mimick the composition of the index against which they are measured with the odd position trying to beat it - and there their chance is 50/50 at best.
so overall they will underperform the index.

if you then add the fee for the manager you are definitely bound to be worse off.
sorry to hear about your vanguard.

in terms of info available, there you are absolutely 100pct spot on - however the question is if the information available is also interpreted correctly. fund managers are no different from us but are motivated by greed, fear and all our oh so human traits.
as such i would still opt against a fund and buy the index, and select investments on the grounds of thorough analysis.
apple has a cash hoard of i think about $12 per share. dividends are not paid but would we value the entire company without its cash at $6 a share ?
i feel yes, but hey, i am a long term investor (as my punt at 24 dissolved into thin air
:p )

jefhatfield
Jun 11, 2003, 06:06 AM
Originally posted by sjjordan
If now a good time to buy stock in Apple? I have $4000 that I'm looking at investing somewhere, and knowing that the new 970's might be coming and the Apple store for Windows might happen, it seems like apple might really be going somewhere!

I'm an avid mac fan and follow all the news/rumors daily. what do you guys think? Is it a good time to invest?

i think that it is not a good time right now...but that may change

remember investing is a form of gambling and you could lose your shirt...as many have found out in recent years:eek: