China: the new superpower?

[princealfie]

Food for lots of thought:

China's inevitable rise risks conflict: Kissinger

By Emma Graham-HarrisonTue Apr 3, 5:42 AM ET

China's rise as a global power is inevitable and could lead to conflict unless Beijing and Washington can cooperate to create a new global order, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said on Tuesday.

Kissinger first came to Beijing in 1971, on a secret mission to re-establish Sino-U.S. ties after more than two decades of diplomatic silence.

Since then, economic reforms have turned China into a powerhouse. Beijing is now running a trade surplus with the United States that Washington last year put at $230 billion, and helps keep its rival afloat by buying vast amounts of U.S. debt.

Washington politicians have also sparred with Beijing over issues related to its rapid development from currency controls to military spending and foreign policy in countries like Sudan.

But Kissinger said China's growing political and economic prominence was irreversible, and if the two nations could not cooperate it raised the specter of war.

"When friends and colleagues in the United States talk about the rise of China and the problems it presents to us, I say the rise is inevitable. There is nothing we can do to prevent it, there is nothing we should do to prevent it," Kissinger said.

"When the centre of gravity moves from one region to another, and another country becomes suddenly very powerful, what history teaches you is that conflict is inevitable. What we have to learn is that cooperation is essential," he said in a lecture to the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Challenges ranging from nuclear proliferation to increasingly tight energy supplies and environmental degradation needed to be tackled together.

"I look at Sino-American relations as a challenge to build a new international system based on human insight, on cooperative action, to avoid catastrophe," Kissinger said.

"Those of you who are students and who will be shaping the world should not think of the other country as adversaries."

Kissinger insisted the world must avoid exoticizing China. When he first came to Beijing, he said, his prepared speech contained a line about reaching a "mysterious country," prompting a challenge by master diplomat Zhou Enlai, then China's premier.

"Zhou Enlai put up his hand and said 'What is so mysterious about China? There are 900 million of us and it is not mysterious to us.' That was an important lesson," Kissinger said.

[zimv20]

yes, china will regain its superpower status, and in the end the US will be just a blip on a graph in that regard.

[steamboat26]

As the U.S. declines in its position in the world, another country will inevitably rise, and it looks like that country is going to be China.

[Airforce]

yes, china will regain its superpower status, and in the end the US will be just a blip on a graph in that regard.

That made me laugh....

[princealfie]

That made me laugh....

Yeah we won't be laughing in 5 years however.

[Queso]

That made me laugh....
How so? I'm sure the British Empire never thought it would fall apart so quickly either. And mighty Rome slowly dwindled to nothing more than a few islands and one high-walled city before finally falling to the Turks.

The only nations that have real staying power militarily are China and Japan. The rest of us just come and go compared to them.

[Lord Blackadder]

Don't forget that China's growth is not sustainable - their regional influence is here to stay but it is a nation in transition and the future is unclear.

[zimv20]

That made me laugh....

i'm quite certain that i or my descendents will laugh last. not that heartily, though.

from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China#Prehistory):

Archaeological evidence suggests that the earliest humans in China date to 2.24 million to 250,000 years ago.[2][3] A cave in Zhoukoudian (near present-day Beijing) has fossils dated at somewhere between 300,000 to 550,000 years.

The earliest evidence of a fully modern human in China comes from Liujiang County, Guangxi, where a cranium has been found and dated to approximately 67,000 years ago. Although much controversy persists over the dating of the Liujiang remains,[4][5] a partial skeleton from Minatogawa in Okinawa, Japan has been dated to 18,250 ± 650 to 16,600 ± 300 years ago, so modern humans must have reached China before that time.


compare that to some 230 years of the United States of America, less than 100 of which can even be considered "superpower status". that's not even within the margin of error.

do you really think the US will be a superpower in, say, 1000 years? that would put in on par with the Holy Roman Empire, which can't even touch China in terms of an ongoing world power.

[pseudobrit]

That made me laugh....

Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.
Proverbs 16:18

[obeygiant]

Yeah we won't be laughing in 5 years however.

5 years? More like 50 - 100 years. Some of the inner prefectures in China still don't have running water.

[miloblithe]

By 2050, according to some economists, the US will be #2 in the world in terms of GDP:

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf

China having passed the US in 2043. Obeygiant is right that there's no way that'll happen in 5 years. But still, GDP in "real" dollars doesn't = global power directly. There are obviously other factors. Also, China may have a larger GDP in 2043, and still have inner prefectures without running water. There are 4 times as many people in China than in the US, so if they reach 25% of our per capita income, they'll have a larger total GDP (totally rough numbers)

Still, within 10 years, I'd say, the US position in the world will look very different. China will be much more powerful than it is today, as will India. If the European Union progresses, Europe will be reemerging in significance. If not, each European power will continue to fade in significance other than Russia, which will increase relative to today (although Russia will never regain its Soviet glory).

Those new power centers will mean that the US will have little to say about what goes on in Central Asia, less to say about what goes on in the Middle East and Africa, and even US dominance over the Americas will continue to decline.

[CanadaRAM]

5 years? More like 50 - 100 years. Some of the inner prefectures in China still don't have running water.

Neither do some reservations in Canada and the US, which is to our shame.

What's your point?

But still, GDP in "real" dollars doesn't = global power directly.

Balance of trade and ownership of foreign debt however, does. Remember how the IMF was able to make debtor nations grovel and change internal social and economic policy to avoid bankruptcy? Who owns the US? Who will own it in 5 years?

[miloblithe]

Who owns the US? Who will own it in 5 years?

1) the U.S.
2) the U.S.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17424874/

As of last June (the latest complete breakdown available), the biggest holder of Treasury debt was the U.S. government itself, with about 52 percent of the total $8.5 trillion in paper that's out there. Most of the government’s holdings are massive savings accounts for programs like Social Security and Medicare. Just as you may prefer to keep your Individual Retirement Account in the safe Treasury bonds, the folks who manage the Social Security Trust Fund are looking for a secure investment, too.

That’s leaves a little over $4 trillion in public hands. The biggest chunk (about 25 percent of the $8.5 trillion total) is held by foreign governments. Japan tops the list (with $644 billion), followed by China ($350 billion), United Kingdom ($239 billion) and oil exporting countries ($100 billion).

Other big holders of Treasury debt include state and local governments ($467 billion); individual investors, including brokers ($423 billion); public and private pension funds (319 billion); mutual funds ($243 billion); holders of US savings bonds ($206 billion); insurance companies ($166 billion) and banks and credit unions ($117 billion.)

I don't disagree that the debt is a problem and that foreign ownership is increasing, but it's not as big a problem as people seem to think.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Here's 31 countries that have worse debt than the US. Many are major economies.

Nations by Public Debt
Rank Country Public debt (% of GDP)
1 Lebanon 209.00
2 Japan 175.50
3 Seychelles 166.10
4 Jamaica 129.70
5 Zimbabwe 108.40
6 Italy 107.80
7 Greece 104.60
8 Egypt 102.90
9 Singapore 100.60
10 Israel 91.00
11 Sri Lanka 90.60
12 Belgium 90.30
13 Moldova 84.50
14 Nicaragua 82.70
15 Bhutan 81.40
16 Jordan 79.90
17 Ethiopia 78.10
18 Morocco 70.90
19 Uruguay 70.60
20 Philippines 69.60
21 Cote d'Ivoire 69.40
22 Hungary 68.60
23 Cyprus 68.40
24 Malawi 68.40
25 Honduras 67.10
26 Germany 66.80
27 Portugal 65.70
28 Zambia 65.70
29 Canada 65.40
30 France 64.70
31 Turkey 64.70
32 United States 64.70
...
44 India 52.80
47 Brazil 50.70
61 United Kingdom 42.20
96 China 22.10
112 Russia 8.00

[obeygiant]

Neither do some reservations in Canada and the US, which is to our shame.

What's your point?


Well, Canada isn't in danger of being a superpower, unless by proxy.

The point is that China isn't even close to reaching their full potential.

[Lord Blackadder]

China's massive manufacturing base and huge population, coupled with very large scale and short-sighted development projects, means that by 2050 they could be facing environmental crises and power shortages that make ours look like a picnic.

[zimv20]

imo, you guys are thinking too short term. what is it that gives china its ability to remain a major force (with peaks and nulls, of course) over so many thousands of years?

what is it about their culture?

what is it about US culture that brought us to our current superpower state? has that culture changed? are we doing things these days to build on that, or are we really just riding out the momentum?

[CanadaRAM]

China's massive manufacturing base and huge population, coupled with very large scale and short-sighted development projects, means that by 2050 they could be facing environmental crises and power shortages that make ours look like a picnic.

Of course. And what is the traditional geo-political response to crisis at home coupled with lack of internal resources?

You exploit someone else. If you are writing the history books, you variously call it colonization, Empire, bringing civilization to the godless natives, assisting development of third world countries, freeing the proletariat from the tyranny of capitalism, creating economic spheres of influence, Lebensraum, Protecting Democracy by Assisting the population in throwing off an Unjust Government, or an alliance of the willing. Whatever. You project power, politically, economically or militarily, to get what you need.

[miloblithe]

imo, you guys are thinking too short term. what is it that gives china its ability to remain a major force (with peaks and nulls, of course) over so many thousands of years?

what is it about their culture?

what is it about US culture that brought us to our current superpower state? has that culture changed? are we doing things these days to build on that, or are we really just riding out the momentum?

I don't think culture is as huge determinate. China had rice, fantastic land, chickens and pigs, silkworms, etc. to become one of the original major powers, and a more durable environment than the original breadbasket.

The US had incredible land and resources coupled with a revolutionary political and economic system. That gave the US a strong start. Only having to fight one major war (with ourselves) on our own territory launched our position in the 20th century. WWI and WWII destroyed the advantages that former powers had built.

[miloblithe]

You project power, politically, economically or militarily, to get what you need.

Which is why China is making major efforts in Africa, for example.

[Lord Blackadder]

It isn't a fait accompli though - and some of what you describe involves more internal social revolution than pressure on other nations.

I think China is destined to be a world power in the near future - they have already expanded to fill the vaccuum left by the Soviet Union as a supplier of technology to many nations.

[Ugg]

China's massive manufacturing base and huge population, coupled with very large scale and short-sighted development projects, means that by 2050 they could be facing environmental crises and power shortages that make ours look like a picnic.

They also have the "one child" demographic nightmare ahead of them along with a growing gender imbalance.

Nobody's brought up the fact that the Chinese are too busy pursuing the mighty remnibi to think about freedom of the press or democratic processes. Something tells me it won't be long before they do. Social unrest could upset the cart very easily.

[obeygiant]

They also have the "one child" demographic nightmare ahead of them along with a growing gender imbalance.



Carry Out Family Planning
Implement The Basic National Policy (http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/1070/415je5.jpg)


Chinese Propaganda (http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/) is always an interesting subject.

[miloblithe]

They also have the "one child" demographic nightmare ahead of them along with a growing gender imbalance.

How so? They still have a positive population growth rate. The one child policy doesn't apply to the whole population.

[zimv20]

btw, it's not necessary for the US to collapse in order for china to become a superpower. nor is the US wane dependent upon china stepping up, we're doing it all to ourselves.

because of stuff like this (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17879317/site/newsweek/rf/snwnewsletter/):

Nearly half (48 percent) of the public rejects the scientific theory of evolution; one-third (34 percent) of college graduates say they accept the Biblical account of creation as fact. Seventy-three percent of Evangelical Protestants say they believe that God created humans in their present form within the last 10,000 years; 39 percent of non-Evangelical Protestants and 41 percent of Catholics agree with that view.

we're gonna stupid our way into obscurity.

[SMM]

China has been their worst enemy over the centuries. Internal greed and in-fighting have prevented them from ever uniting their vast population. Like another poster wrote, they are an ancient culture. They do not measure time in the same frantic way we do in western culture, especially the US.

I remember in history, we looked at empires in the stages of rise, golden age, and fall. I do not recall any that repeated this sequence. China has many things going for it right now, but they seem to be economic and non-military. They are also constipated by an incredibly inept bureaucracy.

[princealfie]

China has been their worst enemy over the centuries. Internal greed and in-fighting have prevented them from ever uniting their vast population. Like another poster wrote, they are an ancient culture. They do not measure time in the same frantic way we do in western culture, especially the US.

I remember in history, we looked at empires in the stages of rise, golden age, and fall. I do not recall any that repeated this sequence. China has many things going for it right now, but they seem to be economic and non-military. They are also constipated by an incredibly inept bureaucracy.

Yeah but in here we are mired in bureaucracy. Don't think that just because others have problems that we don't suffer from the same syndrome.

[princealfie]

China has been their worst enemy over the centuries. Internal greed and in-fighting have prevented them from ever uniting their vast population. Like another poster wrote, they are an ancient culture. They do not measure time in the same frantic way we do in western culture, especially the US.

I remember in history, we looked at empires in the stages of rise, golden age, and fall. I do not recall any that repeated this sequence. China has many things going for it right now, but they seem to be economic and non-military. They are also constipated by an incredibly inept bureaucracy.

Yeah but in here we are mired in bureaucracy. Don't think that just because others have problems that we don't suffer from the same syndrome.

[TequilaBoobs]

china in the near future will face large crime waves due to the one-child policy, because every family wants a male child, and sometimes will even abort or give away their daughter in order to have a son. There will be many more men than women, and when you get a bunch of guys hanging out instead of settled down with families, there's gonna be a lot more crime.

[miloblithe]

china in the near future will face large crime waves due to the one-child policy, because every family wants a male child, and sometimes will even abort or give away their daughter in order to have a son. There will be many more men than women, and when you get a bunch of guys hanging out instead of settled down with families, there's gonna be a lot more crime.

To some degree, much like with their environmental problems, I think that they will transfer this problem to poorer countries, such as by importing brides from North Korea, etc.

[solvs]

That made me laugh....

Have you been paying attention lately? We aren't doing so great. We can turn it around, but I'm just not seeing it.

Not that I think China is all that, as said, who knows how long they can sustain.

[pseudobrit]

china in the near future will face large crime waves due to the one-child policy, because every family wants a male child, and sometimes will even abort or give away their daughter in order to have a son. There will be many more men than women, and when you get a bunch of guys hanging out instead of settled down with families, there's gonna be a lot more crime.

The "one-child" program isn't as bad as you think. You just pay extra taxes for having more kids.

[TequilaBoobs]

The "one-child" program isn't as bad as you think. You just pay extra taxes for having more kids.

i just studied abroad in beijing for a year, and let me tell you my take on the one-child policy. at mcdonalds all over beijing, there are fat, spoiled children everywhere because most middle-class middle class families cannot afford to pay extra taxes for additional children. heck, most families in beijing can't afford the 1k yuan tax (approx US$120) per year to own a dog, let alone a baby. thus, the whole society over there is on unstable ground. yes, they have prevented over 300 million births with their one-child policy, but the consequence is a gender imbalance (there is an imbalance already) and subsequently a rise in crime.

[princealfie]

i just studied abroad in beijing for a year, and let me tell you my take on the one-child policy. at mcdonalds all over beijing, there are fat, spoiled children everywhere because most middle-class middle class families cannot afford to pay extra taxes for additional children. heck, most families in beijing can't afford the 1k yuan tax (approx US$120) per year to own a dog, let alone a baby. thus, the whole society over there is on unstable ground. yes, they have prevented over 300 million births with their one-child policy, but the consequence is a gender imbalance (there is an imbalance already) and subsequently a rise in crime.

Maybe there's a market for importing brides into China?

[TequilaBoobs]

Maybe there's a market for importing brides into China?

that is feasible but we're talking about the largest population in the world. everything has a cause and effect.

also to consider, the chinese are a proud culture, and usually marry within their culture, so i have a difficult time imagining the importing of brides. but that is certainly one solution.

[miloblithe]

also to consider, the chinese are a proud culture, and usually marry within their culture, so i have a difficult time imagining the importing of brides.

It's not hard to imagine at all:

http://newsblaze.com/story/20070217013751nnnn.nb/topstory.html

According to the victims, North Korean women aged 17 to 40 are trafficked in China, and the men who buy them are Chinese nationals between 37 and 58.

North Korean women said they were being sold in China for between 2,000 yuan (U.S. $260) and 20,000 yuan (U.S.$2,600), depending on their age and appearance.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,501031124-543843,00.html

...thousands more are sold by human traffickers as wives to Chinese men who are either too poor to afford a dowry or are considered undesirable to Chinese women because they are old, divorced or disabled. An ethnic-Korean aid worker who lives in the Changbai area estimates that about half of all North Korean women in China�some 95,000 women�arrived as bought brides.

http://washingtontimes.com/world/20070302-115025-5029r.htm

Thousands of North Korean women fleeing famine in their homeland in recent years say they have been sold as "brides" to Chinese men, who often force them into backbreaking labor and subject them to constant fear, physical assault and sexual abuse.

There's no lack of stories about it.