Ballmer on iPhone Marketshare

[MacRumors]

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USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm) interviewed Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer about his thoughts on the iPhone. While Ballmer gives credit to Apple's early move into the music arena, he doubts the iPhone will gain any significant marketshare:

Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

(Note that Ballmer assumes that the $500 iPhone is subsidized, but there has been speculation and rumor that this is not the case.)

[OwlsAndApples]

Everyone's a critic...

[chris.niziolek]

It figures that a Microsoft CEO would say that.

[FJ218700]

3% of 1.3 Billion in 39 million. Ballmer is actually more optimistic than Apple.

[jwa276]

Wasn't the iPod "destined to eventually fail" as well? :rolleyes:

[Johnstkr]

I imagine apple would be happy with the 30 - 45 million phones that 2-3% would represent at a 50% profit margin you are looking at 75+ billion dollars

[chaslam]

God I really cant believe this guy. He pisses me off to no end. You dont see apple commenting about what microsoft are doing and badmouthing them do you? I remember reading an interview with Steve Jobs about the Zune. Not once does he badmouth MS saying they are terrible, yet Balmer seems to do this all the time. He reminds me of someone in denial, who cant accept that someone might have something better then he does.:rolleyes:

[GanleyBurger]

.

[Glenny2lappies]

Balmer's talking out of his hat! Typical of the sort of things "he would say".

Whether we like it or not (thinking delays to Leopard, etc.) it's going to be massive.

Hopefully Balmer will eat that hat.

[mr_matalino]

Ballmer: Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

That's ironic-

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

[tadunne]

Great we now have the Ballmer blessing, nothing can stop us now!

[emulator]

God I really cant believe this guy. He pisses me off to no end. You dont see apple commenting about what microsoft are doing and badmouthing them do you?
I assume you've completely missed Apple's recent ad campaing, did you?

[Glenny2lappies]

From The Register:
A modern-day Gerstner is needed to cure all of Microsoft’s ills
Time for Ballmer to move on...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04/26/microsoft_needs_a_gerstner/

They've had their day.

[Dagless]

So Microsoft thinks it is Symbian all of a sudden.

[Max Payne]

I am beginning to hate this guy. :mad:

[Small White Car]

I like that Microsofts is assuming that ALL iPhones will forever be top-of-the-line, $500 phones.

Good plan there, guys. They'd better hope that Apple doesn't come out with a $199 iPhone Nano next year to go hand-in-hand with its older brother.

[CmdrLaForge]

As long as Apple makes a ton of money and they sell 100 million phones in the next 4 years - I guess they don't care either and Ballmer is an a$$. Thats just a fact. Everyone knows it and nobody likes the guy. Its a shame that Bill works together with some guy like him.

[Corrosive vinyl]

I also heard on appleinsider that he said, "Would I trade 96 percent of the market for 4 percent of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody." What ballmer doesnt realize is that while their software is on more of a percent of computers.... apple has both hardware AND software which are combined.... something which MS fails to realize or understand or impliment.

[Clive At Five]

Does any one phone have significant market share??? Especially in the "Smart Phone" department!!

Anyone have stats on the Moto RAZR? I would imagine that is one of (if not THE) most popular phone on the market today.

Anyone? 5%? One out of every 20 people? I doubt it. Throw in the RIZR and KRZR and I still doubt you'll hit 5%.

3% would be a FEAT.

80% market-share on phone OSes? Big whoop. Even if MS had that, they wouldn't be making any cash on the hardware... so they aren't making the big money.

-Clive

[yg17]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

[tristan]

Of course if it was an ugly monstrosity with a plastic chiclet keyboard running some buggy version of Pocket Vista Explorer with Windows Activation, DRM handcuffs, and forced MSN integration, Ballmer would be its biggest cheerleader.

[Glenny2lappies]

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

Amazing that the 'executive jewellery maker Blackberry (RIM) has almost the same market share as MS. And that's despite Sony Ericsson effectively giving up the PDA market place when they stopped making the P910 and released the awful P990.

I hate to say this, but the iPhone's going to be this year's must have fashion item. As long as it works OK, Apple's on to a complete winner here. It will be desirable for all sectors of the phone market place: executives, geeks, youfs, you name it, they'll all want one!

[nagromme]

iPhone aside, the whole article is a gold mine!

I love how Microsoft is challenging the Wii (I guess?) by targeting the growing casual-gamer market with the XBox 360, instead of the small hard-core-gamer market.

Just HOW have they gone after casual gamers? Watch and learn :p

* "With Xbox 360, we're broadening the audience. You may notice the color is white with faceplates, not black. It actually rounds out the audience appeal of the product."

* "If you look at the game selection: Viva Piñata is targeted at a more female and a younger demographic than anything else we've done."

* "Our arcade games, traditional board games and card games target casual gamers."

Sounds like they're well on track to reversing their entertainment division's 5.4 billion dollar loss (http://www.informationarbitrage.com/2007/04/msft_and_japan_.html) :p

[Eraserhead]

The most interesting thing is this:


Q: When can we look forward to a Zune phone?

A: It's not a concept you'll ever get from us. We're in the Windows Mobile business. We wouldn't define our phone experience just by music. A phone is really a general purpose device. You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, e-mail, whatever your preference is. The phone really is kind of a general purpose device that we need to have clean and easy to use.


Sounds like MS is gonna make the same mistake with the iPod again. :rolleyes:

[sjo]

well that's just too funny, ballmer has tried to enter the mobile phone market for more than five years, spend billions while trying and has thus far haven't achieved the 1% market share of the 1.3B devices sold yearly. ballmer mentioning windows mobile and market share of 40%, 50%, or 60% in the same sentence is even more crazy than throwing chairs around the office or dancing the monkey dance.

[Evangelion]

I like that Microsofts is assuming that ALL iPhones will forever be top-of-the-line, $500 phones.

Good plan there, guys. They'd better hope that Apple doesn't come out with a $199 iPhone Nano next year to go hand-in-hand with its older brother.

they'll introduce the iphone shuffle next. it'll have just one button, and pushing that button will call a random person in your contacts-list.

[Small White Car]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

Right. This one SINGLE model of phone is not going to blow away all other cell phones. That's totally correct.

But what about a revised model next year? And the year after that? What about different brand-lines just like the iPod has now?

He's not wrong for saying that THIS iPhone isn't going to take over the world. He is wrong for assuming that this is the only phone Apple's ever going to make, ever again.

[Silencio]

Does any one phone have significant market share??? Especially in the "Smart Phone" department!!

See post above for marketshare broken down by OS. Symbian leads by a wide margin worldwide.

Anyone have stats on the Moto RAZR? I would imagine that is one of (if not THE) most popular phone on the market today.

Anyone? 5%? One out of every 20 people? I doubt it. Throw in the RIZR and KRZR and I still doubt you'll hit 5%.

3% would be a FEAT.

And those are feature phones, which comprise a much larger market than smartphones. And even still Motorola isn't exactly raking in the profits these days.

80% market-share on phone OSes? Big whoop. MS isn't making money on the hardware, so they aren't making the big money.

M$ will only get to 80% phone OS marketshare in Ballmer's most fevered dreams.

[Peace]

Give the guy a break.
He DOES run Microsoft afterall..:rolleyes:

Plus I'm sure he can't get the REAL market shares figures because he has banned Google from his home.

[iJawn108]

I like Bill he's a smart man, can't say I think the same OF Steve B.

[nagromme]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

Who is the "you" you're referring to?

Apple aims for 1%, which is far less than Ballmer just predicted, and represents a massive number of customers.

Beyond the 1%, lower-end iPhones may well appear... and 3G is a definite, as already announced by Apple. So are other countries--on track for this year.

As for price... what's the monthly penalty you pay to subsidize those other phones that have nowhere near the storage (to pick just one feature) of the iPhone? They cost less for a reason.

I expect Apple will sell as many $500 iPhones as they can make. Then I predict they will sell cheaper versions.

[tristan]

Does any one phone have significant market share??? Especially in the "Smart Phone" department!! Anyone have stats on the Moto RAZR? I would imagine that is one of (if not THE) most popular phone on the market today.


Good point. I do have some stats from Fortune Magazine about a year and a half ago. Both the iPod and the RAZR had sold 50m units and were hailed as breakthrough products that reinvigorated companies. But 50m is only 3% of the total worldwide market, so by Ballmer's definition, that's not a success.

I believe that any product that contributes more than $200m/yr to Apple's bottom line will be seen as a success by Wall Street. That's about 1m or 2m units a year, and that's certainly doable.

[alexprice]

.

Eeeew, I nearly threw up when I saw that.

[balamw]

That's ironic-

.............

Microsoft - 4.6%

Yeah, but they'd prefer to have Symbian's market share. :p :rolleyes:

B

[Electric Boris]

Microsoft is furiously copying the specs and details of the iPhone as we speak.

[j33pd0g]

But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

Has he twisted the first part of a fact into a personal preference? This is what I think he meant:

But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, our software would be in 60% or 70% or 80% of them. And I'd like that.

This is how I would have said it:

But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have Apples software in 2% or 3% of them, than I would to have 60% or 70% or 80%, which is what Microsoft might get.

[Rocketman]

They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.


It is a straw man arguement.

Microsoft is NOT going to have their software on 60 or 70 or 80% of them (worldwide cellphone sales).

Apple is not going to get 2 or 3% with a $500 REVERSE SUBSIDIZED phone.

Here is what IS going to happen. Apple is going to make more REVENUE and NET PROFIT on its first full year of iPhone (and related products) sales than Microsoft does on its combined hardware, software and accessory sales related to cellphones.

Apple wil have the first widely distributed handset that has multi-band cellular access AND agn wifi AND a real, desktop class internet experience WHEN you have wifi access or dock access, and a barely tolerable internet experience when "between hotspots" and relying on cellular.

THEN in ONE YEAR Apple and AT&T will roll out Wimax enabled handsets, service and a deployment plan which will literally replace cellular entirely in urban markets.

In short, he (Balmer) has already wet his (MS) shorts and he needs Depends for all future Apple or AT&T news releases.

BUY AAPL & T.

Rocketman

[oscuh]

I assume you've completely missed Apple's recent ad campaing, did you?

There's a difference between poking fun and being nasty outright.

[nagromme]

I've seen and enjoyed many parody videos of Ballmer, but the original, genuine article (as I just found at AI) is really a must see:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc
(Is he actually saying "GIVE IT UP FOR ME!!!" ??)

My personal favorite parody is the Young Frankenstein remix:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6rqXHX3O48 :D

You CANNOT say Steve Ballmer doesn't have more stage presence that Steve Jobs. You just cannot. (You can however comment on what KIND of stage presence :o )

[alexprice]

Oh god those videos make me cringe.

[Swarmlord]

I think Ballmer should focus more on Vista and Xbox than comment about other company's products. I've yet to see someone run a commercial version of Vista which seems a lot different from the launches of Win 98, Win 2000 or XP that I remember.

[Silencio]

You CANNOT say Steve Ballmer doesn't have more stage presence that Steve Jobs. You just cannot. (You can however comment on what KIND of stage presence :o )

Ballmer literally does have more stage presence than Jobs, seeing as how he must be at least 60 pounds heavier. :D

[iris_failsafe]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will
!
the iphone will begin much like the original ipod, first it was limited to macs, but when oother people saw it they would go wow! then of course ity came for windows, then the smaller cheaper ipods came... i think the big expensive iphone will wow then the new smaller cheaper phones then 3g.. then the world!

[papadopolis1024]

Wasn't the iPod "destined to eventually fail" as well? :rolleyes:

Yup and balmer calls iPod users theifs and google a house of cards. :P

[sam10685]

wow. i'm going to save this story and see what happens by the fall or winter.

[milkmanamok]

The Blammer. . . I mean Balmer. . . in diapers image is pretty disturbing, but fits right in with is usual stage antics. He will end up regreting that his statement here sounds so much like a dare. Apple will never achieve significant market share as long as their OS is confined only to their device, but I expect their projections will be on target and their performance will mock what MS has accomplished in this space so far. Microsoft will be fervently trying to copy this experience, but as usual their usual bloatware will get in the way.

[BlakTornado]

* "With Xbox 360, we're broadening the audience. You may notice the color is white with faceplates, not black. It actually rounds out the audience appeal of the product."

What other electronic devices also use White cases? Hmm...

Microsoft is really doing it's share of copying every other company that is succeeding when it isn't...

Zune - iPod
Vista - OS X
Xbox 360 - Nintendo and Sony

We all know what each one is ripping off.

[Clive At Five]

Ballmer literally does have more stage presence than Jobs, seeing as how he must be at least 60 pounds heavier. :D

"WHEW! [*pant* *pant*] I LOVE THIS COMPANY! [*pant* *pant* *pant*] I LOVE THIS COMPANY!"

Oh, Ballmer. That introduction is forever etched into geeks' minds all around the world as the day Ballmer sealed his fate as a huge loser... just like all of us... but not as "fugly."

Ballmer is just fugly.

And I am not a 16-year-old girl, thank you. There simply is no other word to describe him.

-Clive

[steve_hill4]

Sounds like MS is gonna make the same mistake with the iPod again. :rolleyes:
Yes, I think most people have been agreeing for a number of years now that as flash memory gets cheaper, more makes its way into the phone and the only things to really eat that capacity up are music, photos and video. Look at any other contract phone out there and you already have contacts, calendar, internet etc. Apple will improve on the usability of this side of things, but won't be bringing that much new to it.

Apple aims for 1%, which is far less than Ballmer just predicted, and represents a massive number of customers.

Beyond the 1%, lower-end iPhones may well appear... and 3G is a definite, as already announced by Apple. So are other countries--on track for this year.

As for price... what's the monthly penalty you pay to subsidize those other phones that have nowhere near the storage (to pick just one feature) of the iPhone? They cost less for a reason.

I expect Apple will sell as many $500 iPhones as they can make. Then I predict they will sell cheaper versions.

I agree with all but the statement about monthly penalties. From what I've read, the iPhone won't exactly be on a significantly cheaper tariff. In the UK I would predict the $499 would end up as £299-399 assuming identical conditions. With the very top end phones here being about £100 plus £50 a month rental, the iPhone would have to be available for say £35 a month to be equivalent value. Sure it's a better phone, but you can pick up 4GB of flash in a card for next to nothing these days.

As for 3G access, in this country unless you buy data bundles it's barely worth it. Wherever I am these days wanting to get online, I can guarantee about 90% of the time there is wi-fi access. I would take that over 3G every time, given the choice. Both of course would be better.

Microsoft need to wake up and realise that Apple make their money from hardware, software helps to sell it. If Apple sold 3% of the 1.3 billion phones, Microsoft scraped to 60% and Apple made up to $250 per unit and Microsoft maybe $5-10, Apple would be making equal to double the profit of Microsoft. Double the market share for Apple would be even worse to compare, ($3.9-7.8billion to Apple's $9.75billion).

Now I know Windows Mobile probably earns Microsoft more per unit, the iPhone will probably bring in less and those figures are speculation, but I used the 50% profit quoted earlier and assumed very little for Microsoft because to get that many devices running WM6, they would have to heavily subsidise and discount to get into cheaper end phones.

[czeluff]

Keep in mind guys, this is the same man who criticizes a $500 phone, yet the full version of Vista is $400, the full Office is $700!!

M$ isn't the company that should be lecturing other companies about unfair/unjust/undeserving prices. M$ is THE biggest price-gauger in the world.

Hell, at least when I buy gasoline at an insane price, it WORKS! I don't recall ever driving along in my car, and then suddenly it dies, pops up an error report, and says, "The gasoline has encountered an internal error. Send an error report?"

cz

p.s. speaking of which, I wonder what Ballmer does whenever his own O.S. crashes... I bet he shrugs it off, blaming it on hardware.

[johnee]

I think that shows the mindset of microsoft: dominate the market as cheap as you can.

what a joke. of course he has to have a reply, which is strictly the corporate greed route.

Personally, its the small market share that attracts me to apple, its being elitist but in a good way :)

[Montserrat]

I like that Microsofts is assuming that ALL iPhones will forever be top-of-the-line, $500 phones.

Good plan there, guys. They'd better hope that Apple doesn't come out with a $199 iPhone Nano next year to go hand-in-hand with its older brother.

I'm just waiting for the £55 iPhone Shuffle - no screen, phone people at random.

EDIT:Bugger. Beaten to it by Evangelion

[twoodcc]

It figures that a Microsoft CEO would say that.

exactly. we'll see how the iPhone does

[Balli]

(Note that Ballmer assumes that the $500 iPhone is subsidized, but there has been speculation and rumor that this is not the case.)

Can someone clarify this statement? Does it mean that the iPhone might not cost the consumer $500 if bought with a contract? (And will cost $500 if bought 'offline')?

Because if that is the case, I will most definitely buy the phone 'offline' and use my current simcard.

[Balli]

they'll introduce the iphone shuffle next. it'll have just one button, and pushing that button will call a random person in your contacts-list.

Excellent! :D

[andiwm2003]

ok we all agree Ballmer is an idiot and a a$$hole.

but he has an interesting point:

apples strategy again is to capture a small profitable market share with an OS limited to their high price gadget.

microsoft would prefer to capture a huge market share by licencing their OS to whoever wants it and not be bothered with hardware issues.

in case of Windows M$'s strategy was more successful. In casr of the iPod Apples strategy was successful.

nobody can say now if apple or M$ or Symbian will dominate the smart phone market in the future. it will be interesting to see who's strategy will be the best.

i'm afraid that in future smartphones the integration with MS-Office, Windows and Outlook will at least dominate the smart phones used in business enviroments. there is a real danger to apple.

[heehee]

God I really cant believe this guy. He pisses me off to no end. You dont see apple commenting about what microsoft are doing and badmouthing them do you?

http://www.apple.com/getamac/ :D

[impierced]

Ballmer: Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

That's ironic-

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

Thanks for the post - kinda puts Balmer's comments into perspective.

However, if I were to guess, it's my believe that Balmer is attemping to say that their OS runs on multiple phones while Apple's OS will run on a single phone. That does give them a competitive advantage. Ultimately, time will tell how far MS mobile can go, but it's made some impressive strides in the past year.

[dernhelm]

Who is the "you" you're referring to?

Apple aims for 1%, which is far less than Ballmer just predicted, and represents a massive number of customers.

Beyond the 1%, lower-end iPhones may well appear... and 3G is a definite, as already announced by Apple. So are other countries--on track for this year.

As for price... what's the monthly penalty you pay to subsidize those other phones that have nowhere near the storage (to pick just one feature) of the iPhone? They cost less for a reason.

I expect Apple will sell as many $500 iPhones as they can make. Then I predict they will sell cheaper versions.

Exactly.

Apple wants to make its name as the best phone around. Be the product everyone really wants even if they can't afford it. When you are $200-300 more than your competition, you won't get large chunks of market share all at once. But if you are the recognized "best phone around" you will get all the buzz you need.

Then when they start offering scaled down less expensive versions, people will find the extra $50 to buy the iPhone nano (or whatever).

[slffl]

Remeber when companies made things because they liked to? Most corporations in the U.S. seems to be about nothing other than MONEY MONEY MONEY.

Well guess what Ballmer. Your OS may be in 80% of phones and you may be using cash for firewood, but does that make it suck any less?

[pgwalsh]

Ballmer rarely has anything positive to say, if ever, about one of their competitors. He's a very bottom-line/financial focused person. I personally don't see him being a visionary like Gates or Jobs and it doesn't surprise me to see him poo poo and Apple or Google product. He's infamous for it. Just makes me smile when he's completely wrong. ;)

oh and after seeing that lovely shot with his tongue sticking out, I feel for his wife.

[balamw]

However, if I were to guess, it's my believe that Balmer is attemping to say that their OS runs on multiple phones while Apple's OS will run on a single phone. That does give them a competitive advantage.

Not necessarily. Too many choices can often be a disincentive for the consumer.

Especially when the choices include mutually conflicting features as is the case with many windows powered smartphones and more obviously with the Heinz 57 versions of Vista.

Interoperability is the key feature.

B

[Stella]

" I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them"

Except Microsoft don't.

When it comes to smartphones, the clear market leader is Symbian ( with Nokia's S60 UI ).

EDIT: Ops, didn't see the above link showing market share of all major participants.

[steve_hill4]

If there's one word that stirs up hatred and heated debate on these boards, it seems to be "Ballmer".

Most will probably largely ignore what he said, but what does worry me is those who will read it and get the impression Microsoft already runs on 60-80% of smartphones. Perhaps one way of embarrassing him would be for Symbian to demand he apologise and correct his statement to be Microsoft wanting 60-80% of the market and that those figures are currently enjoyed by Symbian.

I would love to see him squirming over having to retract earlier lies, sorry, statements. It makes Microsoft look desperate and running scared.

[danny_w]

3% of 1.3 Billion in 39 million. Ballmer is actually more optimistic than Apple.
That 1.3 billion figure is the entire cellphone market. The smartphone market is considerably less, more like 100-120 million (90 million in 2006). So 3% of 100 million is only 3 million, not 39 million. Even if the iPhone is a success as a smartphone, there is no way it will be that popular by phone standards.

[inkhead]

I officially call ******* on Macrumors. I hate Microsoft, but that quote is COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTEXT. Balmer's next sentence said "..but then again the iPhone will probably sell very well, even if I don't understand it."

Check your ****ing sources, the interview video is on youtube.


I hate MS and Balmer, however lying about him is just wrong.

[balamw]

That 1.3 billion figure is the entire cellphone market. The smartphone market is considerably less, more like 100-120 million (90 million in 2006). So 3% of 100 million is only 3 million, not 39 million. Even if the iPhone is a success as a smartphone, there is no way it will be that popular by phone standards.

Which also doesn't change the fact that Symbian based smartphones have ~15x the market share of Windows based ones.

B

[nagromme]

If there's one word that stirs up hatred and heated debate on these boards, it seems to be "Ballmer".

Most will probably largely ignore what he said, but what does worry me is those who will read it and get the impression Microsoft already runs on 60-80% of smartphones. Perhaps one way of embarrassing him would be for Symbian to demand he apologise and correct his statement to be Microsoft wanting 60-80% of the market and that those figures are currently enjoyed by Symbian.

I would love to see him squirming over having to retract earlier lies, sorry, statements. It makes Microsoft look desperate and running scared.

I interpret that as a forward-looking prediction: that Microsoft WILL have 80% of the market instead of 4%, in future, while Apple will have 3%. (After all, Apple currently has 0%.)

He's not claiming 80% today--although I'm sure he'd love to create the impression that they're getting close, which they're not.

[nagromme]

I officially call ******* on Macrumors. I hate Microsoft, but that quote is COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTEXT. Balmer's next sentence said "..but then again the iPhone will probably sell very well, even if I don't understand it."

Check your ****ing sources, the interview video is on youtube.


I hate MS and Balmer, however lying about him is just wrong.

Deep breath... :p MR is not "lying," the sentence you quote (from an entirely different interview) doesn't change what he said about market share anyway, and here's his next sentence in this USA Today interview:

In the case of music, Apple got out early. They were the first to really recognize that you couldn't just think about the device and all the pieces separately. Bravo. Credit that to Steve (Jobs) and Apple. They did a nice job.

But it's not like we're at the end of the line of innovation that's going to come in the way people listen to music, watch videos, etc. I'll bet our ads will be less edgy. But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.

[pilotError]

He really has to hate the fact that Apple is getting thrown in his face at every turn.

Apple coming out with a Gaming console would make him go Ape-S***!

Its great to see Apple succeed in markets where MS can't compete very well.

[inkhead]

Yeah because reporters don't ask Apple about Microsoft. Microsoft only responds because the reporter ask a loaded question, such as "What do you think about the iPhone selling 100 million phones?"

http://www.apple.com/getamac/ :D

[nemaslov]

God I really cant believe this guy. He pisses me off to no end. You dont see apple commenting about what microsoft are doing and badmouthing them do you? I remember reading an interview with Steve Jobs about the Zune. Not once does he badmouth MS saying they are terrible, yet Balmer seems to do this all the time. He reminds me of someone in denial, who cant accept that someone might have something better then he does.:rolleyes:

Sounds like you've never seen a Mac television commercial :D

[mashny]

Gee, what a surprise, Ballmer would rather have cell phones running Microsoft's software than Apple's. It's like asking a die-hard Yankee fan what he thinks of the Boston Red Sox.

[steve_hill4]

I interpret that as a forward-looking prediction: that Microsoft WILL have 80% of the market instead of 4%, in future, while Apple will have 3%. (After all, Apple currently has 0%.)

He's not claiming 80% today--although I'm sure he'd love to create the impression that they're getting close, which they're not.

But if Symbian demanded he retract his obviously misleading statement, he would have to clarify and that would be awful PR for MS.

Ballmer: "I actually meant to say that we would like 60-80% of the market, not to imply we currently enjoy that."
The world: "Hmmm, wouldn't all companies want 60-80% of the market."

[inkswamp]

Oh god those videos make me cringe.

No kidding. They're brutal. I don't like to watch them.

Anyway, it really looks like Ballmer is setting himself up to be the next Michael Dell. Next week I suppose he's going to say that Apple should close their doors and give the money back to the shareholders. :D

Someone should archive all these negative iPhone quotes (from Ballmer and Dvorak and whomever) on a site somewhere and keep it up when the iPhone comes out. The same stuff was said about the iPod, but Apple seems to know what consumers want. When Apple nails that, no amount of whining from geeks or moaning from the competition can stop them.

[dernhelm]

Ballmer: Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

That's ironic-

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

This is the funniest part of the whole statement. He's confusing OS marketshare with smartphone marketshare. Someone ought to tell this guy that share < 5% hardly constitutes the right to have an opinion on the validity of Apple's model.

[iMikeT]

What's new? Ballmer has always and will continue to talk out of his rear.

[inkswamp]

http://www.apple.com/getamac/ :D

Well, not to split hairs, but that's advertising and marketing (where it's expected that you might bash the competition) and it's attacking Windows and the PC culture, not MS and their future plans. Seems a little different and considerably less petty than what Ballmer is doing.

[Rot'nApple]

I assume you've completely missed Apple's recent ad campaing, did you?


Is Apple really bad mouthing "PC" in it's recent ad campaign or are they just comparing the Mac vs PC in a humourous light!:)

I would think an Apple bad mouthing campaign would go like this...

Mac: I'm a Mac

PC: I'm a PC

Mac: It's still amazing that consumers still consider your fast a** over me!:eek:

PC: (turns head as if to look at his a**):confused:

[backspinner]

Hell, at least when I buy gasoline at an insane price, it WORKS!
very funny!

[dernhelm]

But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.

This is rich. My 85 year old uncle is not going to own a Zune. Not before an iPod anyway (it isn't likely he'd want either device, but whatever).

Most 85 year old uncles are going to ask their tech savvy nieces and nephews which device to buy. All their nieces and nephews own iPods. What do you think they are going to suggest to him that he buy? Some device that they themselves know nothing about, or an iPod? Especially since they know they are going to be "tech support" for the device.

Ballmer has completely disassociated himself from reality.

[Benjamin]

It's interesting to hear bleak news form your rivals but saying they will get 1-2&#37; more share then what Apple is going for (1%) doesn't really send your message. :D thanks for the confidence Ballmer. :cool:

[drumforfun19]

he's such an idiot. He once commented saying "it (refering to the iphone) doesn't even have a keyboard!"

It has the best keyboard out there! One that gets out of the way when you don't need it.

[keaj]

I had a free minute so I e-mailed symbian to let them know what Ballmer said. I doubt they will do anything but worth a shot =)

[nagromme]

There's nothing shocking about making negative statements about a competitor's products and future.

What's shocking is all the free PR Ballmer keeps giving to Apple. The big guy should never help legitimize the underdog by giving them headlines and airtime, and showing fear.

Here's a suggestion for Mr. Ballmer:

Q: People get passionate when Apple comes out with something new — the iPhone; of course, the iPod. Is that something that you'd want them to feel about Microsoft?

A: (Talk about how passionate consumers are about Vista and Zune and the new Pin&#227;ta game and never MENTION Apple or Apple products. Instead, he went on for 4 parapgraphs about Apple and iPhone and iPod, never once addressing the actual question, regarding passion about Microsoft.)


PS, I like what Ballmer says about DRM-free iTunes music:

"Every recording artist, in my opinion, is entitled to make their own decision. And I don't think Apple or Microsoft should be imposing its will on folks, because people will have different economic interests, different things to think about. We're a company that makes tools, and we're going to enable people to use those tools and make their own judgments as individual artists."

So... Apple is imposing its will on individual artists, "forcing" them not to use DRM. And record labels/RIAA don't exist at all, have no interest in the DRM issue, and Microsoft is not siding with them. Have I got that right?

[robertmorris2]

I can see that they (Microsoft ) are at an impass in devlopment ! While Vista may be lauded as a milestone for Microsoft, it hasn't impacted the home PC world as I think they had hoped. In the business world , I can't really say how the update has effected the everyday business transactions. I've got to say that I am ignorrant on that field. I use PC related software at work, and so far, nothing has changed. I believe that there are many busineses that have not upgraded yet ? So,Microsoft has to have a TARGET to center on...the iPhone !I can't see and mPhone out there yet...it is up to the wireless companies to provide hardware for MICROSOFT MOBILE to work on...I'm sure there are many phones out there that carry that software...the question is...how well they work ? The iPhone has a lot to live up to ...they better make it right the fist time..

[jettredmont]

iPhone aside, the whole article is a gold mine!

I love how Microsoft is challenging the Wii (I guess?) by targeting the growing casual-gamer market with the XBox 360, instead of the small hard-core-gamer market.

Just HOW have they gone after casual gamers? Watch and learn :p

[...]

* "Our arcade games, traditional board games and card games target casual gamers."

Sounds like they're well on track to reversing their entertainment division's 5.4 billion dollar loss (http://www.informationarbitrage.com/2007/04/msft_and_japan_.html) :p

Hmm. $500+ machine to play Solitaire, or $0.99 card deck. The card deck allows me certain people with mental issues to cheat.

Yeah, that's going to drive Microsoft's market share! No way can the stylish(er), inexpensive, downright fun Wii compete with Hearts and Sorry!

Unfortunate they didn't mention the soothing white noise of the jet engine in your living room as a positive for XBox.

[nagromme]

I can see that they (Microsoft ) are at an impass in devlopment ! While Vista may be lauded as a milestone for Microsoft, it hasn't impacted the home PC world as I think they had hoped. In the business world , I can't really say how the update has effected the everyday business transactions. I've got to say that I am ignorrant on that field. I use PC related software at work, and so far, nothing has changed. I believe that there are many busineses that have not upgraded yet ?

As it happens, only 25&#37; of businesses are using Vista at all (and almost none of them have made the complete changeover). Another 13% will adopt Vista in the coming year. That's 38% using Vista a year from now. (Assuming no malware hits to slow interest in Vista.)

Another 27% plan to adopt Vista eventually, but not in the next year. And 30% of businesses don't plan to EVER upgrade to Vista. (No word on their choice of XP vs. Linux vs. OS X... many probably haven't even decided that yet. They'll just stick with XP for now.)

http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=199201492


Unfortunate they didn't mention the soothing white noise of the jet engine in your living room as a positive for XBox.

That's pretty unfair to say. The 360's fan roar very often goes completely silent, along with the red failure light and vacation to the repair center :p

[RichP]

The day Apple is truly in trouble is when Ballmer, or some future MS CEO states "Apple really caught us by suprise on this one. As a result, we are chaning our design philosophy and focusing our resources on innovation"

They will never improve and surpass apple if they first cant admit they are in trouble.

[JGowan]

I truly believe the iPhone will become much more complete as time goes by and I don't think it will take very long, either. A lot of the negativity that Apple is receiving right now because of missing features people are used to in a phone, will be addressed before we know it.

I think it's safe to say that Apple will make a lot of money on this thing and the money it doesn't make will be made it in word of mouth about how awesome this thing is. Once people start seeing this thing and able to hold it in their hand, I think those sitting on the fence will quickly start jumping down and running to get one. Also, even though it's expensive, if it's a great gadget, it's getting people talking about Apple. That's worth a whole lot.

Just like the iPod, this thing will become more advanced and cheaper with every year that passes. It will sell.

[syklee26]

i like Ballmer like I like Bush and the PC guy....they are all good fun to look at because they are so idiotic.

is there a funnier looking CEO today than Ballmer?

[Rot'nApple]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will


That's what I said, well sort of... with regards to the intro of the first iPod!

What the He** is a computer company messing around with music, I said....

It's a dumb idea and Apple is wasting it's R&D money on this garbage, I said...

It will never work and will never make any money, I said...

BOY WAS I WRONG!!!

"The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare." - We will just have to wait and see.

"Limited to one carrier in one country" - the iPod was limited to one music store in one country and that never stoping it's popularity...

"lacking 3G" - the first incarnations of the iPod lacked Video, so?...

"expensive as hell" - so was the first iPod when compared with it's counterpart of today. In any event, the profit I made on my very limited shares of Apple stock since the announcement of the iPhone will more then pay for the 500.00 iPhone along with it's accessories.

"This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will" - Again, we'll see...

I had no vision regarding the introduction of the iPod... I thought it was a huge mistake. Never saw the iTunes application nor appreciated the iTunes Music Store. Never saw the 3rd party market that boomed from it. Never saw that the auto industry would be so inclined to accomodate it in their productions of cars and trucks. Never saw the use of the iPod moving from songs stored to songs purchased, to e-books, podcasts, then music videos and now movies. Never saw a hook up with Nike shoes. Never saw colleges using them for college orientation of new students. Never thought the words iPod and Podcasting would become lexicons of the English language... I never saw any of that and to be honest, I don't think even Apple's top execs would say "yeah, that was our game plan and it was all written down in our business plan".

With money, I'll keep "In God We Trust"

With the iPhone, I'll accept " In :apple: I Trust"

[alec]

Steve Ball-mar of Micro-what??

[guzhogi]

I also heard on appleinsider that he said, "Would I trade 96 percent of the market for 4 percent of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody." What ballmer doesnt realize is that while their software is on more of a percent of computers.... apple has both hardware AND software which are combined.... something which MS fails to realize or understand or impliment.

I agree. Plus, just b/c M$ has 96% doesn't mean people necessarily find their products "appealing". Maybe just necessary.

[Dagless]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

I'm with you. Though I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone did crazily well just because of the iPod halo effect. There are too many issues that stop me from wanting one, 3G, no removable battery. They have to fix them before I even consider looking at one. As beautiful and otherwise feature packed they may be.

[FJ218700]

That 1.3 billion figure is the entire cellphone market. The smartphone market is considerably less, more like 100-120 million (90 million in 2006). So 3% of 100 million is only 3 million, not 39 million. Even if the iPhone is a success as a smartphone, there is no way it will be that popular by phone standards.

good call, my bad.

For how much longer though is there going to be a distinction between regular cell phones and (today's) smart phones. Is any company not trying to expand their features?

[TheBobcat]

WINDOWS SMARTPHONES HAVE DEVELOPERS!!!!!!!

Actually, you know, I would love to see the Steve Ballmer Workout Video, we all know he can really sweat to the oldies.

"Ok everyone, with this one we're going to run back and forth flopping our arms across the keynote stage clapping and screaming developers. Ready, and five, six, seven, eight DEVELOPERS...."

[skinnylegs]

Jealousy rears its ugly head......

[steve_hill4]

I had a free minute so I e-mailed symbian to let them know what Ballmer said. I doubt they will do anything but worth a shot =)

Ditto. Great idea.

Let's all flood Symbian and/or Microsoft with emails and hopefully we can achieve something tonight.

[wmmk]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm) interviewed Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer about his thoughts on the iPhone. While Ballmer gives credit to Apple's early move into the music arena, he doubts the iPhone will gain any significant marketshare:



(Note that Ballmer assumes that the $500 iPhone is subsidized, but there has been speculation and rumor that this is not the case.)

Ballmer: Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

That's ironic-

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

Haha, I was going to mention that. Also when you divide that 4.6% by the number of devices running windows mobile, I have a strong suspicion that your marketshare per device would be under 1%.

[motorazr]

Wow. Really, someone should tell him that his MS crap gets more bugs every version. Let's see...he says how lucky apple would to be to get 3% from entering late...now if we want something too late into the market, let's talk about the MS zune. :p :p

[bobajoul]

This guy is a blowhard who is consistently wrong. He and his buddy Gates got lucky once (althought they were really lucky!), practiced anticompetitive marketing and business practices when they got rich and have stagnated since. Seems like they should spend more time on product and less on punditry.

[mrthieme]

I'll bet he hates that all his interviews seem to come back around to Apple and the iPhone. I love to see him struggling to paint Apple as a failure and nonthreat, when they obviously pay very close attention to what happens with Macs. He seems so, um, nonrelevant, and disconnected.

[psychofreak]

Wow. Really, someone should tell him that his MS crap gets more bugs every version. Let's see...he says how lucky apple would to be to get 3% from entering late...now if we want something too late into the market, let's talk about the MS zune. :p :p

Or the 360...it swings both ways you know :)

[Porchland]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

It won't be a single-carrier, US-only, non-3G, expensive phone for long. AT&T is locked in as the carrier for a good while, but other countries will get the phone over the next year, better bandwidth is coming, and prices will fall.

Exhibit A: The iPod.

[EdwardG87]

3% of 1.3 Billion in 39 million. Ballmer is actually more optimistic than Apple.

My thoughts exactly. Steve Jobs and Apple Inc. are only aiming for 1% the market for the first year.

[patrick0brien]

Or the 360...it swings both ways you know :)

-psychofreak

Not to argue, but the door only swings both ways when both ways are comparing positive profits, which is not the case with the 360.

(Sorry, that's my Six-Sigma poking through)

[CJD2112]

The guy's right, as much as I hate to say it. The iPhone ISN'T going to grab that much marketshare. Limited to one carrier in one country, lacking 3G, expensive as hell. This is not going to get the amazing market share you think it will

I have the same feeling...

[CJD2112]

It won't be a single-carrier, US-only, non-3G, expensive phone for long. AT&T is locked in as the carrier for a good while, but other countries will get the phone over the next year, better bandwidth is coming, and prices will fall.

Exhibit A: The iPod.

Actually, rumors have it that Cingular/AT&T has exclusive US rights for 4 or maybe even 5 years...

[matznentosh]

If there's one word that stirs up hatred and heated debate on these boards, it seems to be "Ballmer".

Most will probably largely ignore what he said, but what does worry me is those who will read it and get the impression Microsoft already runs on 60-80% of smartphones.

I believe this is a problem. I assumed Microsoft was the dominant operating system for smartphones till I saw that statistic on Roughly Drafted (http://roughlydrafted.com is an incredible site, he's had on the money opinions for years, see his prediction for the current form of the iMac).

Saying something is true goes a long way to convincing people it's true. Look at the current administration, they do it all the time.

[Vinnie_vw]

The way it stands now, Balmer is dead-on. A Mac-only phone, with crippled application-development, crippled hardware-capabilities, and a wallet-crippling price will not grab a big market-share. That said, it would really surprise me if Apple didn't have a big "one more thing" up it's sleeve, different than everyone thinks. My guess (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=299568) is as good as yours. :rolleyes:

Incidentally, I disagree with those that are saying that if the iPhone 1 doesn't become a big hit, iPhone 2 or 3 will ("just like the iPod"). The mobile market is extremely competitive, much more so than the music-player market was back then. If Apple makes a half-assed phone, chances are another hardware-maker will make a rocking clone, implementing exactly those features consumers want. Look at how many iClones came out based on just a keynote? Apple needs to make a big splash now, it may not get a second chance. The question is what will this splash consist of?

[Clive At Five]

Actually, rumors have it that Cingular/AT&T has exclusive US rights for 4 or maybe even 5 years...

How come MacRumors hasn't caught wind and reported on this?

ARN?! ADMINS?! THIS IS IMPORTANT NEWS!

-Clive

[EagerDragon]

Sorry but this is page 17 material. Why do we care what the man has to say. He is a competitor of Apple and has no clue of Apple plans, even if he did, what you expect him to say????

Not worth discussing.

[Bonte]

Actually, rumors have it that Cingular/AT&T has exclusive US rights for 4 or maybe even 5 years...

Maybe so but it doesn't have to limit the device. I'm from Belgium and we don't have subsidized phones here, therefore at the keynote i was in the assumption that there was a FREE 2 year contract included with the iPhone. No free data-plan but free to use the network and pay per play.

If this is the case it opens up the market in a big way and won't make the 5 years Cingular deal to limiting, Apple isn't dumb. The iPod is only 6 years old but look how far it got in such a short timeframe, limiting the iPhone for 5 years with expensive data-plans just isn't a smart move. It looks like the iPhone will dramatically change the US market.

[Manatee]

Apple should make a special iPhone for Ballmer in "Sour Grape". ;)

[psychofreak]

The way it stands now, Balmer is dead-on. A Mac-only phoneIts not mac only :)

[Rocketman]

That said, it would really surprise me if Apple didn't have a big "one more thing" up it's sleeve, different than everyone thinks. My guess (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=299568) is as good as yours. :rolleyes:


I disagree with your assertion we will see iLife for PC. I think we will see a slight expansion of features on iTunes, which is already a PC app and already draws users to the Mac experience by bringing the "Microsoft Office of the 21st century", the killer ap known as iTunes, to the masses, for free and with a user experience the same on both the Mac and PC.

It is the trojan horse.

Apple TV does this by hooking a crippled Mac to the TV and is agnostic which CPU is hosting iTunes, Mac or PC. Many homes are multi-CPU now so it seems many of the new ones are Mac.

iTunes is the software that talks to iPod, iPhone (ATN) and iTV (:)).

Rocketman

[Glenny2lappies]

... but other countries will get the phone over the next year, better bandwidth is coming, and prices will fall.

Not so sure prices will fall that far. The iPhone will be very much a premium product with very high desirability and paying $500-$600 seems about right. OK, maybe this is a European speaking here, but the iPhone seems to offer a lot more than just a phone; it'll be a decent replacement for an iPod, plus PDA, etc.

I paid around £250=$500 for my Ericsson P900 plus contract a couple or three years back. I see the iPhone as the very natural replacement for this (lets face it, there's sod all other phones on the market to replace it at the moment).

Maybe they'll be the iPhone Nano in the future which will be cheaper?

I can't see Apple having any problems in selling every phone they produce for the first year; and if it's as good as they say, they'll sell a lot more after that. Also Apple kit tends to be desirable because it's expensive; like designer clothes.

[APPLENEWBIE]

Oh god those videos make me cringe.

OH, man. I gotta give a speech today.. nothing to say.... nothing to say... what do I do? (Panic) Wait, I know! I'll jump around and scream and hope no one notices that I have nothing to say!

[Alloye]

Ballmer: Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.

Translation: We are losing the war in phones and music players. There's no chance that the Zune is going to get any significant market share, and the iPhone may very well overtake us in the smartphone market. I'll just pull a bunch of percentages out of my ass to impress the ignorant.

I can't believe I wasted five years of my life working for Microsoft. It truly is clueless company from the top down.

[Lonon]

Every time his ass talks for him, another bullet point in the " 'N' Reasons to kill Steve Ballmer right now" is added. I really really hate this guy.

[Hunabku]

Ballmer rarely has anything positive to say, if ever, about one of their competitors. He's a very bottom-line/financial focused person. I personally don't see him being a visionary like Gates or Jobs....

I would not put Gates and Jobs into the same sentence as far as visionary is concerned. Gates was once upon a time somewhat visionary (created platform independent os) - really more clever about marketing than visionary in the kind of way that apple and Jobs are.

[davebarnes]

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%

So, Steve's wetdream is 60+% and Microsoft has 5-%.
Long climb uphill.
I do love Steve's spin. He implies that MS already has 60+%.
Brilliant.

[sigamy]

"... Apple is a hardware company. They're one-trick ponies, because there is a lot of groupthink in all companies."

Apple is a hardware company. Either M$, after all these years, still just doesn't get it or this is what they tell themselves in order to sleep at night after "borrowing" all of OS X's design ideas for Vista.

These guys still don't get it. Apple makes the whole widget. Elegant seamless integration of hardware and software.

Then he tells a funny story about Gates finding new features in Excel. And he thinks this is good news! You've never have a story like that about Apple software because the enginneers and designers work so hard to GET IT RIGHT the first time. They're not perfect but they are so far beyond what MS does...

Makes me sick.

</fanboy rant>

[Konradx]

This is coming from a guy who released the zune. HAH

[sam10685]

Microsoft is furiously copying the specs and details of the iPhone as we speak.

what's the point...? Apple has patented a heck out of the iphone. :D

[aLoC]

Since he has no artistic taste, Ballmer probably sees the iPhone as essentially no different to all the other smart phones already out there, and therefore sees no reason why it should take over.

But as someone who does have some taste, I have to say it is quite a bit better than the other ******* ones on offer.

[Timpdude]

Just an opinion..

There are going to be MANY businesses that will not adopt the iPhone because of perceived fear of communicating/syncing with their windows systems. You have to realize that many businesses use Windows machines and there is going to be a perception that the iPhone won't play well with it (now we all figure it will, but who knows?).

Many businesses will still use their Blackberries.. Honestly.. You can get a good blackberry for less than a hundred bucks these days and for business that is what most folks will need (push email). Not many companies are going to be able to justify the extra money for iPhones for all of their folks that use Blackberries..

Now that being said.. Business is a small fraction of the cell phone market. Apple is shooting for 1% by end of 2008 right? That is attainable, but I don't think with the current business model.

Reasoning:

It is expensive.. Yes.. I am going to buy one the day that they are released because unlike many of the 'early adopters' I actually have a use for all of the features that it offers (I work virtually from home and this is a great device considering the HTML web browsing and stuff since a lot of my work is done in propietary systems that do not work very well with my Treo (but work fine in Safari so in theory they should work wonderfully with the iPhone. There are a lot of people who are not going to be able to justify that kind of price... Kids aren't going to be able to talk mommy and daddy into this one... When they can get a RAZR for $49 bucks parents aren't going to spend $599 for a phone when they still have to pay for a dataplan to go with it (and for those of you that honestly think that the dataplan will be different from the typical cingular one just keep dreaming.. It is going to cost you $39.99 a month -- perhaps higher.. their blackberry service is $44.99 and that wouldn't surprise me to see the iPhone fall under that connect package. I pay $39.99 a month for my Treo's data.. I will continue to pay the data plan.. There is NO way that Cingular is going to put that in the $599 package... There is also NO way that you are going to get data for free. So.. You can buy the $599 phone and NOT buy the data plan, but then you get an iPod and a Phone that will do Text Messaging.. Then we start wondering.. $199 for an iPod Nano and $49.99 for a RAZR. Yep... No where near $599. I just don't see the current business model supporting even 1% of the cell phone population as long as they stay with ONLY Cingular/ATT. You are going to have to branch out. I would think that the RAZR probably has 2-3% of the population.. That is HUGE. Everyone you see seems to have a RAZR and that is only 2-3% probably. No way Apple gets 1%. It is to much of a 'niche' phone and not enough of a true 'difference maker' to get that much of a major adoption.

Honestly.. 8-10% of computer users are Mac people.. I don't forsee 1% being iPhone folks as those 8-10% of the computer market isn't going to see spending that much on a phone + a data plan.

Now.. Again.. I am a fan of the phone.. Will buy one the day it is out and enjoy the hell out of it.. I also know that i will probably have a much better product than my current Treo 650 as it is really buggy.

Balmer probably isn't far off in his thoughts here though.. I would rather have 60% of the software on phones than 1% of the phone market... Now.. that isn't going to happen either as there isn't ever going to be 60% of the world cellphone users having smartphones.. It is to much concentrated on business people to ever catch on at that number. I don't see MS stuff on regular phones being that popular. There isn't a need for it.

I think MS and Apple both need to chill.. Let the phone come out.. Lets see what it really can do and if they get the 1% GREAT! If not.. Then it will be the 'next' phone that did as every other Nokia and Moto phone has done (some folks will have it and others will say "it is cool, but no way I am getting that right now").

Thoughts?

Michael

[D*I*S_Frontman]

Thoughts?

Michael

Cell phones are ripe for the kind of user-experience reinvention that made the iPod the mack-daddy of the mp3 player world.

Remember all of the initial criticism of the iPod? Nothing new? Too expensive? A fantastic, easy, intuitive, and functional user experience wins big over bells & whistles.

I have disliked every cell phone I've ever owned or used at work. Bad displays, buttons too small, terrible interfaces, convoluted OSs. If Apple just makes the current technology work seamlessly, easily, and elegantly, with great build quality and Apple "chic", this thing is going to be HUGE.

Think user experience. That is the ONLY thing that really sets an iPod apart from its competitors. That one factor = complete market domination.

I have to find a way to get my wife to let me buy Apple stock before the iPhone release date.

[imacdaddy]

I pity the fool!

[elgruga]

Ballmer is an IDIOT. Worse, he is a vindictive idiot.
Worse still, he is a LIAR.
His typical expression shows him with his tongue sticking out, like an angry and frustrated schoolboy, or a monkey expressing dislike and contempt.

Microsh*t lose tons o' cash every year trying to capture markets that they dont understand.
Why do the M$ shareholders put up with this nonsense?

He is the man who runs the company that came up with the Zune - I am amazed that he is still employed.

He probably thinks that 911 was NOT an inside job.

Ballmer can kiss my a$$. I REALLY dont like this guy.

[rish]

Ballmer's uses are significantly reduced as MS continues to appear to be in decline. Being an Apple critic is his new role.

[surferfromuk]

Balmer is taking this phone in isolation.

Iphone is really a ninja phone - a stealth bomb - a Trojan - the phone part is the 'killer app' but the real payload is a 'mac in your pocket' that's also an ipod - THAT message is already beginning to emerge and 6 months from now that's what they'll be selling this thing as.

Iphone is the seed of a 21st century blazing HOT pocket macintosh. The potential level of technology and sex appeal in this direction are literally off the chart... that's what they're all ignoringby continually making parallels soley to the traditional phone markets.They just 'don't get it' - Steve and his i-team obviously do!.

So it's a Trojan for WHAT? For Apple's mass market phone!! Nano Phone!

The second offering will probably look exactly like a nano - now that's really what's got nokia, M$, Motorola terrified. A full nano ipod with basic phone functionality priced just $50 above a standard nano.

Now were talking about selling 50 million of these babies and the iphone will get sucked along in it's wake.

Net Result by 2009 ;

100 million nano phone buyers per year.
40 million iphone buyers per year
40 million MAC buyers per year!

Balmer is playing poker right now - 'bluff' he says, 'Job's got nothing in his hand'...

Bottom Line : Jobs Lives Apple. Balmer works at Microsoft

Well we know the truth don't we!!

[marcol]

That's ironic-

As sited from MacDailyNews.com:

Canalys worldwide total smartphone device market - market shares 2006 Q4 2006:
Symbian - 72.5%
Linux - 16.9%
PalmSource - 2.0%
Microsoft - 4.6%
RIM - 3.8%
Others - 0.2%
Remember too that that's just smartphones, which make up less than 10% of phones sold, and Windows Mobile isn't found on any non-smartphones. He might 'prefer' 80% but he has less than 1%.

[ddubbo]

Let's wait for iPhone first. With my all respect for Apple, I don't believe that any company at this world could successfully launch the product, that it has no experience with before

[surferfromuk]

Let's wait for iPhone first. With my all respect for Apple, I don't believe that any company at this world could successfully launch the product, that it has no experience with before

I respectfully say 'Let's get hysterically buzzed!" and with good reason.

Apple have already hit the bullseye with this.

Suddenly the so far unsurpassed pinnacle of hi-tech 'the Star Trek communicator' a.k.a the StarTac style Motorola flip phone suddenly looks 'underwhelming'.

The future is promised and soon to be delivered....

It's going to sell a million on day one!.

That's success!.

This thing is techno-viagra!!. I for one look forward to the slogan "Thrust more power into your pocket than you ever possibly imagined"....:)

[gavd]

Let's wait for iPhone first. With my all respect for Apple, I don't believe that any company at this world could successfully launch the product, that it has no experience with before

Not sure I agree with this. Apple have successfully diversified before and I'm sure will again in the future.

It's also not like they are working totally on their own. They're working with a company that is in the business they're trying to get into to get the benefit of that experience.

[Timpdude]

Absolutely NO way the iPhone sells a million of them in day 1. There might be a million sold by the end of week 1, but no way a million the first day.

I agree with several of the comments above... I wrote my 'dissertation' last night (long post) and still stick by a lot of it, but the post that rebutted a few things was pretty 'spot on' (for you Brits out there). Most Cell phones that are out there today are clunky and not a very favorable user experience. I also agree that the iPod came out with much of the same.. I never will forget the first day a girl in one of my classes brought an iPod into one of my classes and popped those little ear buds in her ears during the last 5 minutes when we had a break.. I said "Cute... but gosh.. expensive and it will only hold 10gb of music?!?!? I have like 60 what would I do with my other 50?" She has just a high school kid and didn't have a good way to answer me, but I will never forget that day... Why? She said "well.. it is a pretty sexy little player and it sounds great". I popped a set of headphones on it that were in my office and I said "Damn.. you're right.. How much did this cost". Of course at the time the iPods were pretty high still and I gasped..

About a year later I owned 5 of them and was writing my PhD Dissertation on the evolution of Podcasting and how it related to Instructional Design for Online Learning... To say that one day had a prolific change in my life would be an understatement. Not many people can say that about a device, but between that and Podcasting my life completely changed. I have just about finished my Dissertation and am only 4-5 months away from being Dr. Bell to all of you! (just kidding...) and we are talking an iPhone... What impact could this device have on EDUCATION!? I see the potential for all SORTS of things, but will enough people ever have it in their hands to actually change education like the iPod did (and if you don't think iPods changed education just keep thinking).

As for MS. I like Vista.. I have a Vista Laptop.. (Of course I have a Macbook and an iMac as well). I like my Zune.. It is a good music player.. (really) I love the music "All you can eat" downloads.. That is a good plan and wish like hell that Apple would take that up. I still listen to my iPod (still have 4 of them) in my car and one of my Shuffles in my ear when I goto bed each night) but I like my Zune too and listen to it most of the day while I work because I have more music on that particular device because I like the downloading of songs better on there.. I like MS Office.. I like MS Project.. I like a lot of stuff from MS. They are a great company. I love my 360 (and I bet a bunch of you Apple fanboys do too!) Apple is doing something that MS doesn't have the balls to do yet and that is enter the cell market. MS will do it one day... The sad thing? They will probably have a bigger market share due to 'perceived' sync issues with the iPhone and Windows.. I am telling you that is going to keep a lot of people from buying it even though we all know it will work with windows..

I love discussion boards.. I spend way to much time reading them..

Lets keep this one going!

Thoughts?

Michael

[SPUY767]

At least Bill was slow to anger and only lashed out when you really got him in a corner. This bald ape feels free to make baseless and ridiculous comments whenever he so desires with no grounding in fact whatsoever.

[SPUY767]

He probably thinks that 911 was NOT an inside job.

I don't like him either, but leave comments like this out of this forum. Please.

[Maestro64]

Does any one phone have significant market share??? Especially in the "Smart Phone" department!!

Anyone have stats on the Moto RAZR? I would imagine that is one of (if not THE) most popular phone on the market today.

Anyone? 5%? One out of every 20 people? I doubt it. Throw in the RIZR and KRZR and I still doubt you'll hit 5%.

3% would be a FEAT.

80% market-share on phone OSes? Big whoop. Even if MS had that, they wouldn't be making any cash on the hardware... so they aren't making the big money.

-Clive

Motorola sold 60 million RAZRs in 2.5 years. The total number of cell phones sold last year was just under a billion not the 1.3 billion Ballmer claims. Base on the last 2.5 yrs of cell phone sales, I would say it amounts to close to 2 to 2.5 billion world wide. Also most of those phones were low end phones sold in developing markets like China and India.

Bases on those numbers the RAZR and all it variants was about 2.5% to 3.0%. Clive you were right on with your numbers.

You have to remember when the RAZR came out it was $499 and have been slowly dropping in price to the point that Carriers are now offering it for $29 if you sign a two yr contract.

Lastly, Ballmer is a finance guy, he was no clue on technologies or buying trends of the world masses. He walk into a situation where others knew what was going on and being in the right place at the right time. If he had to bet the future of Microsoft on coming up with one innovations the world recognize as a great product, he should close the doors now.

For the last 4 yrs MS stock has been stagnate, why, becuase they have no clue the the investment world know it. Ballmer hasn't figured it out.

[peharri]

THEN in ONE YEAR Apple and AT&T will roll out Wimax enabled handsets, service and a deployment plan which will literally replace cellular entirely in urban markets.


Why would AT&T roll-out a WiMAX handset? Are they planning to close Cingular and become a Sprint or Verizon MVNO?

AT&T/Cingular are currently upgrading their network to UMTS, and are likely to choose UMTS rev. 8 (the result of the Long Term Evolution project) as their 4G technology. They haven't really been doing anything with WiMAX.

[bretm]

Once again, MS just cares about numbers of installations of their product, marketshare, etc. Notice how Ballmer never talks about things the way Jobs does. Jobs is more of a form follows function kind of guy. Here's the problem, let's create a solution. Phones suck. They all suck. So Jobs is attempting to create a better one. Of course it has to be profitable or it's pointless. But what drives the origination of ideas at Apple is different than MS. Apple is a creator and innovator (yeah, they steal ideas and buy out companies too, I know) and MS is more like a politician. They try to sell you some garbage you think you need based on the current status quo. Short term fixes and solutions. Apple reinvents things.

[studbike]

its his job to badmouth apple. just dont listen to the guy lol

[Maestro64]

Why would AT&T roll-out a WiMAX handset? Are they planning to close Cingular and become a Sprint or Verizon MVNO?

AT&T/Cingular are currently upgrading their network to UMTS, and are likely to choose UMTS rev. 8 (the result of the Long Term Evolution project) as their 4G technology. They haven't really been doing anything with WiMAX.

I would not say this is not 100% true, Cingular/AT&T are looking at WiMAX, what their final plan is has yet to be seen.

Earthlink is starting to deploy WiMAX right now in the USA, and Apple and Earthlink have a long standing relationship and Apple did say the iPhone will be WiMAX compatiable when it makes sense.

If Apple and Cingular have a 5 yr deal it just goes to say that WiMAX is probably part of that future.

[peharri]

I would not say this is not 100% true, Cingular/AT&T are looking at WiMAX, what their final plan is has yet to be seen.

Earthlink is starting to deploy WiMAX right now in the USA, and Apple and Earthlink have a long standing relationship and Apple did say the iPhone will be WiMAX compatiable when it makes sense.

If Apple and Cingular have a 5 yr deal it just goes to say that WiMAX is probably part of that future.

No, it doesn't work like that. Earthlink's activities are irrelevent: Apple has an exclusive deal with Cingular/AT&T for the next five years, regardless of what technologies the iPhone supports it will not be available in an Earthlink version.

Cingular may be "looking at" WiMAX, but no more intently than they're "looking at" UMB. They're a GSM/UMTS shop, and it's improbable they'll make any decisions about what technology to use until November, when UMTS rev. 8 is finalized. Unless UMTS rev. 8 is a serious mess, I can't see why they wouldn't adopt it. The alternatives aren't any better: WiMAX has no standardized upper level services, so is not a drop in replacement for existing cellular mobile telephones, and UMB is... well it's more or less Qualcomm trying to create a migration path for its CDMA2000 customers so they'll continue to buy the technology. However, neither Sprint nor Verizon seem to be biting.

WiMAX is pretty much exclusively used by those wanting to provide mobile Internet service. It makes some sense for the CDMA2000 operators to jump to it given their lack of interest in standards, but no sense for GSM/UMTS operators.

The bottom line: WiMAX from Cingular is improbable to say the least. And Apple has no reason to support WiMAX in the Cingular version of its cellphones for the next five years.

[droz]

"They may make a lot of money. But..."

my favorite quote ever. There is no "But" Ballmer. If you were any good at your job you would probably realize that your company should be in business to "make a lot of money". Bill must be real proud to have you running his company. Please. Gates should wake up and push this guy out the door. I like Microsoft, and have friends that work there. I want to see them succeed, but this guy is a complete TOOL.

[aristobrat]

"They may make a lot of money. But..."

my favorite quote ever. There is no "But" Ballmer. If you were any good at your job you would probably realize that your company should be in business to "make a lot of money".
Didn't Microsoft make the most money they've ever made last quarter?

[Mr. Gumby]

After the section on the iPhone, Ballmer was questioned on the possibility of a Google phone. Ballmer rose from his seat, threw his chair across the room and shouted "I will ********ng kill Google's phone!"

I LOVE the Ballmer! No one cracks me up more than that stubby-foreheaded Conehead!

Stevie B. please have more interviews so we may learn from your mighty wisdom and foresight!!






:D :D :D

[surferfromuk]

In the end Apple users simply have better technology and thus lead better lives.

Iphone just adds a beautiful phone to that already exquisite experience.

Balmers words can never change the reality of this irrefutable fact.

[timswim78]

God I really cant believe this guy. He pisses me off to no end. You dont see apple commenting about what microsoft are doing and badmouthing them do you? I remember reading an interview with Steve Jobs about the Zune. Not once does he badmouth MS saying they are terrible, yet Balmer seems to do this all the time. He reminds me of someone in denial, who cant accept that someone might have something better then he does.:rolleyes:

Wow! Do you crawl out of your cave much? Apple often spends a good chunk of keynotes bashing MS, with both blatant and subtle messages.

[smythey]

Cell phones are ripe for the kind of user-experience reinvention that made the iPod the mack-daddy of the mp3 player world.

Remember all of the initial criticism of the iPod? Nothing new? Too expensive? A fantastic, easy, intuitive, and functional user experience wins big over bells & whistles.

I have disliked every cell phone I've ever owned or used at work. Bad displays, buttons too small, terrible interfaces, convoluted OSs. If Apple just makes the current technology work seamlessly, easily, and elegantly, with great build quality and Apple "chic", this thing is going to be HUGE.

Think user experience. That is the ONLY thing that really sets an iPod apart from its competitors. That one factor = complete market domination.

I have to find a way to get my wife to let me buy Apple stock before the iPhone release date.

What he said. Well put. :)

[biturbomunkie]

gotta like good old ball mer, acting like a jerk while talking like a dic.

[iLeopard]

bet you he buys one

[kirk26]

Right on Steve. iPhone=welcome to 2004.