AP-Ipsos poll finds U.S. Congress' approval ratings dip to same low level as Bush's

[MacNut]

WASHINGTON: Americans think the Democratic-led Congress is doing just as dreary a job as Republican President George W. Bush, following four months of bitter political standoffs that have seen little progress on Iraq and a host of domestic issues.

An AP-Ipsos poll also found that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a more popular figure than the president and her colleagues in Congress, though she faces a gender gap in which significantly more women than men support her.

The survey found only 35 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, down 5 percentage points in a month. That gives lawmakers the same bleak approval rating as Bush, who has been mired at about that level since last fall, including his dip to a record low for the AP-Ipsos poll of 32 percent last January.

"It's mostly Iraq" plus a lack of progress in other areas, said Rep. Tom Cole, who heads the House Republican campaign committee. "These are not good numbers for an incumbent, and it doesn't matter if you have an R or a D next to your name."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/12/america/NA-POL-US-AP-Poll-Bush-Congress.php

[Swarmlord]

I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

[miloblithe]

While that's certainly not good for Congress, the fact is that Congress never receives high ratings while presidents usually do. 32% for Bush is among the worst for Presidents ever. 32% for Congress is par for the course.

http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm

[zimv20]

I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

aren't you going to go on and on about this:

The telephone survey of 1,000 adults [...]

[zimv20]

Only 48 percent of Democrats said they approved of Congress, down from 55 percent last month. That included a 12 percentage point drop among Democratic women, although support from Democratic men remained steady.
i read through the article, looking for data like this. unfortunately, this is all they offered.

it makes sense to me that support among dems fell, at least from those dems who want congress to not back down from bush. but the gender discrepency has me scratching my head.

more information such as the above would have been most welcome.

[obeygiant]

An AP-Ipsos poll also found that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a more popular figure than the president and her colleagues in Congress, though she faces a gender gap in which significantly more women than men support her.

The survey found only 35 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, down 5 percentage points in a month. That gives lawmakers the same bleak approval rating as Bush, who has been mired at about that level since last fall, including his dip to a record low for the AP-Ipsos poll of 32 percent last January.

"People wanted change in Washington" on many issues, not just Iraq, said Democratic Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a member of the House Democratic leadership. "I'm not surprised about where people are. They're hearing only about Iraq."

Congress' reduced appeal was evident in several categories of people. Only 48 percent of Democrats said they approved of Congress, down from 55 percent last month. That included a 12 percentage point drop among Democratic women, although support from Democratic men remained steady.

The telephone survey of 1,000 adults was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Well at least they list how many were surveyed and how the poll was conducted. But if you're going to dispute the validity of the poll, you might want to dispute the validity of the Bush numbers as well. :)

So 350 out of 1000 said they approve of the way Congress is conducting business. And 48% of the 350 were democrat. I wonder what percentage of the 650 who didn't approve were democrats.

[skunk]

So 350 out of 1000 said they approve of the way Congress is conducting business. And 48% of the 350 were democrat. I wonder what percentage of the 650 who didn't approve were democrats.Your understanding of how the figures break down is beyond bizarre.

[obeygiant]

Your understanding of how the figures break down is beyond bizarre.

whats bizarre about it, skunk?

[leekohler]

I'm not surprised at all. We elected them to get us the hell out of Iraq, something they simply refuse to do. They are obviously failing and deserve the rating.

[skunk]

whats bizarre about it, skunk?Where does it say that the 350 who approve were all Democrats?

[atszyman]

Well at least they list how many were surveyed and how the poll was conducted. But if you're going to dispute the validity of the poll, you might want to dispute the validity of the Bush numbers as well. :)

So 350 out of 1000 said they approve of the way Congress is conducting business. And 48% of the 350 were democrat. I wonder what percentage of the 650 who didn't approve were democrats.

Where does it say that the 350 who approve were all Democrats?

To be fair obeygiant doesn't claim all 350 were dems, he only claims 48% were.

However the article says :
Only 48 percent of Democrats said they approved of Congress, down from 55 percent last month. That included a 12 percentage point drop among Democratic women, although support from Democratic men remained steady.

Which says that 48% of the democrats surveyed approved, not that 48% who approved were democrat. The missing bit here is how many of the ~1000 adults were democrat/republican/independent/other. If only 100 democrats were covered in the ~1000 people then 48 of them said the approved. I imagine they tried to keep the survey evenly split without any information on the breakdown of political affiliation of the 1000 it's hard to say.

[yg17]

I'm not surprised at all. We elected them to get us the hell out oif Iraq, something they simply refuse to do. They are obviously failing and deserve the rating.


I don't think they're refusing. Any bill they pass that would get us out of Iraq gets vetoed by the dumbass in charge

[obeygiant]

Where does it say that the 350 who approve were all Democrats?

It didn't say that and neither did I.

35% of 1000 people surveyed approved of congress.

48% of democrats surveyed approved of congress.

[leekohler]

I don't think they're refusing. Any bill they pass that would get us out of Iraq gets vetoed by the dumbass in charge

All they have to do is cut off funds- simple as that. It'll suck and some of them may suffer politically, but it's the right thing to do.

[obeygiant]

All they have to do is cut off funds- simple as that. It'll suck and some of them may suffer politically, but it's the right thing to do.

Thats probably why it won't happen.

[leekohler]

Thats probably why it won't happen.

That the assumption. But it would also force Bush to bring the troops home. I think in the long run, it woulf benefit more of them than it would hurt.

[skunk]

It didn't say that and neither did I.

35% of 1000 people surveyed approved of congress.

48% of democrats surveyed approved of congress.You said "48% of the 350". Which 350? :confused:

[atszyman]

That the assumption. But it would also force Bush to bring the troops home. I think in the long run, it woulf benefit more of them than it would hurt.

I don't think it would succeed in forcing Bush to bring them home. The Pentagon has enough discretionary money to fund the war for months even if the supplemental funds are cut off. Since this administration has showed very little concern for the troops in general I doubt lack of funding would cause them to bring the troops home. More likely the war would limp along and as more troops get hurt from lack of proper body armor and equipment they'd try to hang that on the neck of Congress for refusing to fund the equipment for the troops.

Cutting off funding would backfire big time and giving the congress back to the GOP is a scary thought. At least now there is a little oversight taking place. I believe they're doing the right thing by tying funding to goals/withdrawal plans and forcing Bush to veto they can at least say "we're giving you the money for the troops why do you keep shooting it down?"

[leekohler]

Cutting off funding would backfire big time and giving the congress back to the GOP is a scary thought. At least now there is a little oversight taking place. I believe they're doing the right thing by tying funding to goals/withdrawal plans and forcing Bush to veto they can at least say "we're giving you the money for the troops why do you keep shooting it down?"

That's true- meanwhile the politicians play their games, and people continue to die for nothing. :mad:

[obeygiant]

To be fair obeygiant doesn't claim all 350 were dems, he only claims 48% were.

However the article says :


Which says that 48% of the democrats surveyed approved, not that 48% who approved were democrat. The missing bit here is how many of the ~1000 adults were democrat/republican/independent/other. If only 100 democrats were covered in the ~1000 people then 48 of them said the approved. I imagine they tried to keep the survey evenly split without any information on the breakdown of political affiliation of the 1000 it's hard to say.

It didn't say that and neither did I.

35% of 1000 people surveyed approved of congress.

48% of democrats surveyed approved of congress.

You said "48% of the 350". Which 350? :confused:

35% of 1000 is 350. Those 350 approve of the job congress is doing. The article later goes on to say 48% of democrats approved of the job that congress is doing. I'm assuming that 48% of those 350 were democrat. I still think I'm within the bounds of safe to assume what I did. atszyman points out that the article doesnt say what percentage of that 1000 were democrat. I can't imagine Bush would get a 32% rating if they were polling only conservative republicans. If its still "beyond bizzare" consult a math book.

[Don't panic]

So 350 out of 1000 said they approve of the way Congress is conducting business. And 48% of the 350 were democrat. I wonder what percentage of the 650 who didn't approve were democrats.
it doesn't say that

Where does it say that the 350 who approve were all Democrats?
it doesn't and he didn't


35% of 1000 people surveyed approved of congress.

48% of democrats surveyed approved of congress.
now it's correct

35% of 1000 is 350. Those 350 approve of the job congress is doing. The article later goes on to say 48% of democrats approved of the job that congress is doing. I'm assuming that 48% of those 350 were democrat.
this assumption is incorrect

the number of democrat in the poll range from 25 (of which 12 approved) to 730 (of which 350 approved), so, to answer obey's question:
the range of dems in the non-approving part ranges from 2% (if the sample was 975 rep and 25 dems), to 58.4% (if it was 270 reps and 730 dems).

if the sample was 500-500, you'd have 240 approving democrats, 110 approving republicans, 260 disapproving democrats and 390 disapproving republicans, so the answer to he original question would be that 40% of the disapproving crowd were democrats, and 68% of the approving would be democrats.

the last assumption would be correct only if there were exactly 350 dems and 650 reps in the survey (1 in 705 chances of being correct):
168 approving dems, 182 approving reps, 182 disapproving dems, 468 disapproving reps

/end of pedantic and pointless calculations :D

edit: of course i assume no independents were surveyed

[obeygiant]

the number of democrat in the poll range from 25 (of which 12 approved) to 730 (of which 350 approved), so, to answer obey's question:
the range of dems in the non-approving part ranges from 2% (if the sample was 975 rep and 25 dems), to 58.4% (if it was 270 reps and 730 dems).

Where did you find that? I looked thru the article and couldn't find it.

So how many of the 1000 were dems and repubs?

[Don't panic]

Where did you find that? I looked thru the article and couldn't find it.

So how many of the 1000 were dems and repubs?

it doesn't say, i just calculated the various possibilities based on the available data. that's why the dems number (25-730) range so much:
25 dems = minimum number to get 48% approval (assuming no one was dismembered)
730 dems = max number (if all 350 approving were dems). if more than 730 were dems, you'd have more than 350, at 48%.

[zimv20]

think of all the confusion that would have been saved had more breakdown been published.

afaic, this poll (or at least what we know of it) is next to useless: people are disappointed in congress for a number of reasons, and such data doesn't provide much real insight as to who is feeling disappointed and why.

[Don't panic]

think of all the confusion that would have been saved had more breakdown been published.

afaic, this poll (or at least what we know of it) is next to useless: people are disappointed in congress for a number of reasons, and such data doesn't provide much real insight as to who is feeling disappointed and why.

oh, but it has.
i just found it here (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/act_hit_cntr.cfm?id=3484&Region=us&PDF_name=mr070511-1topline.pdf)

but if had looked for it earlier, i wouldn't have wasted a good 15 minutes in useless calculations and annoying posts :D


here is the relevant part (in %)

INITIAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION
REGISTERED
VOTERS
Republican ....................................... 29
Democrat.......................................... 33
Independent ..................................... 24
None of these................................... 12
Not sure........................................... 2
(IF “DEMOCRAT” TO Q.2a, Q.2b ASKED. IF “REPUBLICAN” TO Q.2a, Q.2c ASKED. IF “INDEPENDENT” or
“NONE OF THESE” TO Q.2a, Q.2d ASKED. RESULTS SHOWN IN SUMMARY BELOW.)
2b. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party?
2c. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party?
2d. Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
REGISTERED
VOTERS
Strongly Republican .......................... 14
Moderately Republican...................... 15
Lean Republican ............................... 11
Definitely Independent/neither........... 12
Lean Democrat.................................. 13
Moderately Democrat ........................ 13
Strongly Democrat............................. 20
Refused/not sure.............................. 2
Total Republican ............................ 40
Total Democrat ............................... 46


also, it's worth noting that last year it hovered around 25% approval the entire year

[zimv20]

i just found it here (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/act_hit_cntr.cfm?id=3484&Region=us&PDF_name=mr070511-1topline.pdf)

thanks for that.

i still contend that the results would be more interesting if the trends were broken down by party.

[Macky-Mac]

think of all the confusion that would have been saved had more breakdown been published.

afaic, this poll (or at least what we know of it) is next to useless: people are disappointed in congress for a number of reasons, and such data doesn't provide much real insight as to who is feeling disappointed and why.

indeed.....this poll mostly reflects the general mood of dissatisfaction with our current situation. In any event, polls tend to show low approval ratings for congress most of the time

[zimv20]

indeed.....this poll mostly reflects the general mood of dissatisfaction with our current situation.

yeah, and i always want more info.

it reminds me of those cnn.com daily polls, which are sometimes worded so ambiguously the results are meaningless.

[Dont Hurt Me]

1/2 of Congress is still Republican.,,,, duh.:apple:

[solvs]

But if you're going to dispute the validity of the poll, you might want to dispute the validity of the Bush numbers as well.

Who's disputing the validity? No one is. Congress and Bush both suck. A lot of us are disappointed in what Congress isn't doing, but what it is doing most of the time isn't great either. I doubt you'll find any here defending them. I think you're seeing things.

[mactastic]

Why are the Democratic Congress's numbers so low? Because righties hate anything with a (D) after it with a passion, and lefties are pissed that they are:
A) Pussyfooting around on the issue of the war, and
B) Pissing us off by dickering around on ethics reform.

These were the two big issues that brought them to power. If they do not perform on those two issues it is likely that the American people will vote them out of power.

Of course it's big news when the Democratic Congress's numbers sink to these levels, but it's a sign of how principled Bush is that his numbers are at the same level.

Go figure.

[FFTT]

Why are the Democratic Congress's numbers so low? Because righties hate anything with a (D) after it with a passion, and lefties are pissed that they are:
A) Pussyfooting around on the issue of the war, and
B) Pissing us off by dickering around on ethics reform.

These were the two big issues that brought them to power. If they do not perform on those two issues it is likely that the American people will vote them out of power.

Of course it's big news when the Democratic Congress's numbers sink to these levels, but it's a sign of how principled Bush is that his numbers are at the same level.

Go figure.

That's pretty much how I feel too.

Where are those subpoenas? I want investigations and the clear exposure of what these criminals have done to our country.

They can't even agree to reform their own old guard ways.

With very few exceptions, it's mostly about pleasing the lobbyists rather than reforming our government to serve the people.