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MacRumors
Aug 3, 2007, 11:18 AM
http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

ChangeWave released (http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2007/8/emw544185.htm) data from a recent survey of 3,003 members of the ChangeWave Alliance.
The ChangeWave Alliance is a network of over 10,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries--credentialed experts who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
The survey results of these individuals show that the iPhone has achieved a 1% marketshare so far. More remarkable is that amongst those who plan on buying a cell phone in the next six months, 16% said they'll purchase an iPhone.

The iPhone also saw the highest satisfaction results with 77% being "Very Satisfied"

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2007/08/03/iphone-marketshare-and-growth/)



DocStone
Aug 3, 2007, 11:57 AM
Hello world.

bdj21ya
Aug 3, 2007, 12:01 PM
Wow, these results are huge! 16%? That is an impressive number and certainly quite I few more than I would have expected. I wonder about how many people that represents, I'll have to look into the survey results a bit more closely.

plumbingandtech
Aug 3, 2007, 12:04 PM
and if and when apple releases an iphone nano (phone + ipod only) at a lower price point.

To the moon Alice.

boss1
Aug 3, 2007, 12:08 PM
I think it's important to emphasize that the 1% here represents........

"1% of the 10,000 individuals that belong to the Alliance network consisting of highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies"

and of course that 16% applies only to members that belong in this group also.....





The rest of the country and the world doesn't necessarily fit the description, income level, demographic in general of the group surveyed.

hanschien
Aug 3, 2007, 12:11 PM
In other news, 33.5% of all statistics are made up.

hayduke
Aug 3, 2007, 12:18 PM
In other news, 33.5% of all statistics are made up.

True that. Not sure what the point of this thread is. A bunch of nerdy experts want iPhones (So do I!) Great, Apple will sell 480 more phones (16% of the 3,003 respondants). Sure they might turn their companies on to them, but the proof is in the pudding. The speculation is just that...speculation.

mainstreetmark
Aug 3, 2007, 12:32 PM
In other news, 33.5% of all statistics are made up.

http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewAlbum?playlistId=4525590&s=143441&i=4525545

yoman
Aug 3, 2007, 12:51 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420+ (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/1C25 Safari/419.3)

This survey only demonstrates that 16% of 3003 technology driven people crave the iPhone . However it is positve nonetheless.

boss1
Aug 3, 2007, 12:55 PM
http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewAlbum?playlistId=4525590&s=143441&i=4525545

LOL, what is up with that song? he sounds happy about singing about the fact he's drinking because has too much to think about.... preceded with a statement on statistics?? wow.... hmmm country music is ...... .. ... ........ interesting.

PrettyUgly
Aug 3, 2007, 01:00 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420+ (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/1C25 Safari/419.3)

This survey only demonstrates that 16% of 3003 technology driven people crave the iPhone . However it is positve nonetheless.

Numbers are tricky. It's not 1% of 10,000 and it's not 16% of 3003. It's more like 16% of 2973. 1% of those 3003 people already own iPhones.

Long live accuracy. And, unnecessary corrections.

clevin
Aug 3, 2007, 01:01 PM
hardly representative.
lets just count shipped #s.

urbanslaughter
Aug 3, 2007, 03:26 PM
Apparently you guys don't get statistics. They're using a representative sample. If they weren't then these wouldn't be statistics; they'd simply be facts. Think about presidential polls. They don't go out and ask all the voters (otherwise they'd be called "votes" rather than "polls"), they take a representative sample and then expand on the results of that sample. It is fair to say, therefore, that 1% of the cell phone market is now using the iPhone and that 16% of future cell phone buyers would like to get an iPhone. That's how stats work.

ajhill
Aug 3, 2007, 04:30 PM
Clearly Apple has a great product. The only thing holding it back from mass acceptance is the price. Apple is taking the first few months to work out the kinks in the iPhone.

With a $300 profit margin and $200 kickback from ATT there is plenty of profit left over for Apple. The 4GB iPhone at say $299 would sell like hotcakes. And then Apple would reap the benefit of the $9/month/subscriber as well.

A little patience is all that is needed. iPhone will pickup just like iPods did after their release. Probably faster. The iPhone has the benefit of that extra income from the monthly subscriber profit sharing that the iPod never had.

As to the worry that iPhone will cut into iPod sales? Steve Jobs is laughing his way all the way to the bank on that one. Replace a one time profit with a bigger one time profit AND a monthly gift to Apple? He will take that deal any day.

Not to mention new macs this week, new OS in October, new iPods next month. Oh, and accelerating earnings. What's not to like about Apple

bdj21ya
Aug 3, 2007, 05:03 PM
Apparently you guys don't get statistics. They're using a representative sample. If they weren't then these wouldn't be statistics; they'd simply be facts. Think about presidential polls. They don't go out and ask all the voters (otherwise they'd be called "votes" rather than "polls"), they take a representative sample and then expand on the results of that sample. It is fair to say, therefore, that 1% of the cell phone market is now using the iPhone and that 16% of future cell phone buyers would like to get an iPhone. That's how stats work.

Sorry, but it's only fair to say that 1% of the ChangeWave Alliance members in the market for a cellphone bought an iPhone, unless for some reason you think that this pool is also representative of all Americans in the market for a cell phone.

Don't panic
Aug 3, 2007, 06:10 PM
Sorry, but it's only fair to say that 1% of the ChangeWave Alliance members in the market for a cellphone bought an iPhone, unless for some reason you think that this pool is also representative of all Americans in the market for a cell phone.

in addition, it's not necessarily a 'representative sample', because there was no selection. it's just how many people answered the questionnaire.
so it's possible that pro-iphoners where more inclined to answer, or vice-versa.

however i do think it's fairly representative of thee high-end market

inkswamp
Aug 3, 2007, 06:21 PM
Apparently you guys don't get statistics. They're using a representative sample.

A representative sample of what? And is the sample in any way self-selecting? That matters. The article mentions that a "...total of 3,003 members of the ChangeWave Alliance participated in the survey...." So they surveyed members of a particular group? That sounds suspiciously self-selecting. I don't see any info there about who those people are and that's vitally important.

It's a little like when Fox News surveys their viewers on Bush's popularity and, strangely, it comes out higher than other surveys. Fox News viewers are self-selecting in that regard.

pgwalsh
Aug 4, 2007, 01:48 PM
Well they have to take a sample of one size or another. Obviously 30,000 people would be more telling than 3,000 people, but I feel the results are fairly reasonable. I certainly wouldn't argue that the iPhone and the Blackberry are not the most popular device right now.

I'd like an iPhone, but I'm waiting until it's 3G.

nagromme
Aug 4, 2007, 06:49 PM
With a $300 profit margin and $200 kickback from ATT there is plenty of profit left over for Apple.

Unfortunately, those numbers are fiction.

Nobody knows what kickback Apple gets--we've seen nothing but wild guesswork.

And the profit margin is far less than $300. The company that says Apple gets 50% profit is blatantly mis-stating reality (and yet still gets quoted by "journalists"):

http://daringfireball.net/2007/07/businessweek_taking_the_iphone_apart