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macphoria
Aug 10, 2003, 02:27 AM
There was a discussion recently about blue laser DVD. And now we have discussion about Zip. So I wonder, what could be the next data storage medium?

What do you think about something like this?
http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/innovation50702.asp

Vector
Aug 10, 2003, 03:05 AM
Zip is dead and has been for years at least to me.

Blue laser dcd is probably a logical choice. I remember an article in wired a couple of years ago that discussed the differences between the two types of lasers and how much smaller the pits could be if blue lasers were used. I had forgotten completely about blue laser dvd storage until this thread.

I think that cd will be the major medium for the next few years for those who only need small storage. People wanting to store more will use dvd single or double sided until something else comes along that is as cheap per gigabyte. Once blue laser dvds are produced for mass markets, there will be a moderate acceptance increasing as price decreases in response to demand.

The technologies that IBM is developing are promising, but still 5 years off and will probably be too expensive at first for most to adopt when they could get other lower priced storage solutions.

tjwett
Aug 10, 2003, 03:13 AM
i like the idea of mega DVDs becoming main stream but damn, i want something smaller. two years ago i remember hearing about postage stamp sized CDs or something. can't we just shrink everything, where is Rick Moranis when you need him? i know the mini disc could've changed the world if it would have caught on. then again i still own a laser disc player. oh well...

Vector
Aug 10, 2003, 03:28 AM
Originally posted by tjwett
i like the idea of mega DVDs becoming main stream but damn, i want something smaller. two years ago i remember hearing about postage stamp sized CDs or something. can't we just shrink everything, where is Rick Moranis when you need him? i know the mini disc could've changed the world if it would have caught on. then again i still own a laser disc player. oh well...

I would like to see a smaller disc that could store more, but postage stamp size would be a little too small. A 3" disc or something around that size would be nice especially if you could use blue laser to write onto it.

I also owned a laserdisc player and after having to fumble around with those huge discs, making sure that there were no smudges, having to switch sides, dropping the things. After laserdiscs everything else seems svelte in comparison.

Squire
Aug 10, 2003, 03:31 AM
Maybe I'm way off but I'd put my money on online storage such as iDisk. There's no physical device yet it can be accessed from anywhere with an Internet connection. I bet MS, Yahoo, and AOL all follow Apple's lead and offer some form of virtual hard disk if they don't already.

Edit: I posted this link in the Zip Drive forum:

http://forbes.com/2003/07/24/cx_ah_0724tentech.html

It might be just what you're looking for, Vector.


Squire

whfsdude
Aug 10, 2003, 06:36 AM
Originally posted by Squire
Maybe I'm way off but I'd put my money on online storage such as iDisk.

I think your right on target. WebDav (as used in iDisk) is the future. But it is a long way off, for example my web host (Dreamhost (http://www.dreamhost.com/rewards.cgi?wjd)) just started providing it to use. I use mine to share file between computers. I like it more than AFP.

Anyway I think WebDav will be built into the OS some day and we will all just get hard drives (I own 5 right now and they are getting cheaper everyday). Everything will just use the server. i.e. wifi/ethernet :-)

benixau
Aug 10, 2003, 07:09 AM
Hmmmm - WebDAV seems that way to go.
I think it will become like DVD-ROM are: all OS's support it, all machines can use it and most of them come with it (think low-end iBook). You already see ISPs selling machines. These days internet access is not uncommon - fast internet access is though.

WebDAV will end up being good - but it needs to be really fast and not come off my download limit each month before I would start really using it. It also needs to be large, about 300MB (comes with ISP service) with up to 1G for a fee of course.

pseudobrit
Aug 10, 2003, 07:28 AM
Not enough people have reliable broadband for online storage to be the future. And the broadband that is out there is getting costlier and less broad.

It would create a huge data bottleneck.

Look at all the engineering in the PM G5, and how not only the processor was massaged up to higher GHz, but how everything else was widened too -- hard drive, PCI slots, RAM speed, etc, etc. It's these things that truly make the computer fast.

It doesn't matter a whit if you've got dual 5GHz G6s under the hood if you're accessing your data from a 12Mbps USB hard drive, and for too many people, internet storage would be that slow or worse.

I think the future will be in a newer, higher density DVD sized disks and tiny, portable hard drives (connecting with FW800 and/or USB 3.0).

The CD/DVD size format has proven so insanely successful that the industry will have a nearly impossible time getting the market to accept anything else.

Squire
Aug 10, 2003, 09:30 AM
Originally posted by pseudobrit
Not enough people have reliable broadband for online storage to be the future. And the broadband that is out there is getting costlier and less broad.

I'm not an electrical engineer but I would guess 2 things about the advancement of technology: things get cheaper and things get faster.

Your statement might be true in the expanse of North America but in urban centers I'd bet fast Internet connections are becoming cheaper and more commonplace.

If my 2 assumptions above are indeed correct, I'll stick to my guns and say that "virtual" storage is the thing of the future. If I'm incorrect, I'll go with your advanced DVD-type suggestion.

Squire

adamfilip
Aug 10, 2003, 10:59 AM
well what i want to see is SMALLER CD's!

a new Blue Laser DVD in a pocket cd format..
you know those disks that you can buy for your cdr. that are like 5cm.cds. hold like 185mb

so i think they can made a 5cm Blue laser DVDR (& RW) that hold 6+ gigs..
that would be idea..

normal cd's and dvds are too hard to carry in your pocket

even if they made 1" disks .. that could be cool

Schiffi
Aug 10, 2003, 01:47 PM
The problem with those 5cm disks or whatever, is that slot-loading Macs won't accept them. Apple would have to redesign the slot, or bring back trays which could lead to increased PowerBook thickness. I believe something will replace blue-lasered disks, much like 8-track was replaced rather rapidly. In the grand scheme of things a 26GB jump won't catch on. I see maybe 100GB media perhaps replacing blue-lasers like 2-3 years after introduction. If they could make flash cheaper and hold more (way more) I could see them as a potential HD replacement. Though I heard that holographic storage will come soon, so that probably will replace magnetic storage once and for all.

BTW: current DVD tech can get 1.5GB on one 5cm disk

LethalWolfe
Aug 10, 2003, 02:25 PM
Originally posted by Squire
I'm not an electrical engineer but I would guess 2 things about the advancement of technology: things get cheaper and things get faster.

Your statement might be true in the expanse of North America but in urban centers I'd bet fast Internet connections are becoming cheaper and more commonplace.

If my 2 assumptions above are indeed correct, I'll stick to my guns and say that "virtual" storage is the thing of the future. If I'm incorrect, I'll go with your advanced DVD-type suggestion.

Squire

Your 2 assumptions are wrong. ;) At the very least broadband price and speed has remained constant, and in some cases it's either getting slower or more expensive. But it is definetly not getting cheaper and faster. Currently about 1/3 of US homes connected to the net use broadband. And that rate is growing at less than 1% a month (give or take).

Until broadband becomes as easy to access as dial-up I don't think remote storage is going to be a viable option for the masses.


Lethal


EDITED for clarity

Abstract
Aug 10, 2003, 03:11 PM
Zip is dead and has been for years at least to me.

Blue laser dcd is probably a logical choice. I remember an article in wired a couple of years ago that discussed the differences between the two types of lasers and how much smaller the pits could be if blue lasers were used. I had forgotten completely about blue laser dvd storage until this thread.

The DVD's you're talking about are from something called the "Blu-Ray project" or something. Their carrying capacity is around 22.5GB, which is pretty darned good. And to the person who wanted something "smaller", things can always be shrunk, but practicality pays a price in most cases. You would lose your disks and data constantly if you were to make a postage-sized media to store your data, much like Rick Moranis lost his kids when he shrank them. ;)

However, why does this thread imply "portable" media?

After reading the title of this thread, my answer was going to be: systems with no hard-drives, and only RAM. All data would be stored on RAM, just like on PDA's. This is the way it'll happen. I think companies are already planning for this. Imagine no boot-up times, no slowdown due to harddrive speed limitations. We have the capacity to create such systems right now. Things will work much faster when HD's are eliminated. I read an article that once said that they can't believe that after all these years, we're still using harddrives. Its as old as the floppy disk, if not older.:o

Oh, and did I mention no boot-up? :cool:

Schiffi
Aug 10, 2003, 05:07 PM
That's why I mentioned Flash cards :)

RAM's negative asspect is that it needs constant power to keep data. Having to reinstall all my apps after a powerout is definetly a turnoff.

Flash just needs to hold more data and become cheaper. Basically Palms use Flash Cards for data storage, not typical ram.

janey
Aug 10, 2003, 05:13 PM
Originally posted by Schiffi
BTW: current DVD tech can get 1.5GB on one 5cm disk
i thought max capacity for a two sided, two layered DVD was 17 gigs.

Schiffi
Aug 10, 2003, 05:30 PM
I meant pocket-sized DVDs. I must have foolishly typed the wrong measue. I meant 80mm(8cm). Oops. oh, and double-sided disks do not count. :)

Kiwi-Todd
Aug 10, 2003, 06:51 PM
What about that crazy 'millipede' technology that IBM are developing with huge theoretical capacities on small chips. (it uses hot nano needles to punch holes in some kind of funky plastic) - I'm no techo as you see!!

Daveman Deluxe
Aug 10, 2003, 07:18 PM
I was just about to say that, Todd. I remember reading about it. I think that's really where the future is taking us. More reliable than hard disks and they will draw less power. They're amazingly fast too.

Kwyjibo
Aug 10, 2003, 07:33 PM
I think the future will be more about something like those thumb drives except possibly firewire or usb2.0 ones... i mean they go up to a gig or two now, if the price dropped that would be an excellent computer to computer solution.

Squire
Aug 10, 2003, 08:12 PM
Originally posted by LethalWolfe
Your 2 assumptions are wrong. ;) At the very least broadband price and speed has remained constant, and in some cases it's either getting slower or more expensive. But it is definetly not getting cheaper and faster.

Perhaps my two assumptions are wrong in the US and Canada.

I've had ADSL for the past three years. I now have the option of getting VDSL. VDSL is faster than ADSL and was not available 3 years ago. I asked my wife what we pay now vs. 3 years ago and she said it was the same. ;)

I think online storage will become more widespread among those with fast Internet connections. As for the others, big-ass DVD-Rs maybe.

Squire

cubist
Aug 10, 2003, 08:26 PM
I like the idea of the 3" blue laser DVD-R. But the arrogance of the MPAA and RIAA will likely strangle it through evil-minded litigation. That is why people are moving away from CD-Rs today, and to storage on hard drives, where there is no tangible media specifically tied to content.

Flash memory keeps declining in price as well. We may be able to use multigigabyte keychain drives to move data from place to place. Such a device has no moving parts, no "drive" is required, and it's physically rugged.

rainman::|:|
Aug 10, 2003, 08:50 PM
I cannot believe they're investing that much money in magnetic media. it's so 20th century. Solid state is better in almost every way.

I think the next MAJOR media we'll see (like in terms of punchcard, magnetic [tape], optical) will be holographic; a 1-inch cube could hold more data than we'll need... potentially hundreds of terabytes will be available in convenient little blocks.

in terms of speed, holographic memory can read and write in large flashes of light, rather than manipulating bits singularly... about a billion bits per second, making a 4.7gb DVD transfer in about 30 seconds.

I think we'll see about 5-7 years more optical, delving into things like blue laser and i think we might see a resurgence of cartridges once more, before the field is closed... perhaps a multi-platter optical drive...

perhaps not...

pnw

Nermal
Aug 11, 2003, 12:24 AM
I believe the discs for the Gamecube hold 1.5 gigs, and they're what, 8 cm? I'd love to see my DSL provider offer WebDAV - anything on their servers comes in at 4 Mb/s and doesn't eat into my 10 gig limit :) But they do need to make it more transparent, currently you have to disconnect from the internet and log in again with a different username to access their servers at full speed. I wish you could just use them straight away.

LethalWolfe
Aug 11, 2003, 12:35 AM
Originally posted by Squire
Perhaps my two assumptions are wrong in the US and Canada.

I've had ADSL for the past three years. I now have the option of getting VDSL. VDSL is faster than ADSL and was not available 3 years ago. I asked my wife what we pay now vs. 3 years ago and she said it was the same. ;)

I think online storage will become more widespread among those with fast Internet connections. As for the others, big-ass DVD-Rs maybe.

Squire

Actually Canada is up around 70% broadband or something like that. The US seems to be lagging compared to other industrialized nations that offer broadband.


Lethal

pseudobrit
Aug 11, 2003, 12:49 AM
Originally posted by LethalWolfe
Actually Canada is up around 70% broadband or something like that. The US seems to be lagging compared to other industrialized nations that offer broadband.


Lethal

The big, local-service TeleComms are killing it by monopolizing and abusing their marketplace position, driving prices up or holding them steady and capping bandwidth. They're not investing in technology and they're not innovating. They're selling us yesterday's old tech for cutting edge prices, much like cell phone companies are.

Independent ISPs running DSLs were subject to acts of sabotage at the phone company COs to the extent that they had to put cage bars around their hardware. The local phone companies in some cases didn't even have a competing service; they just didn't want anyone getting broadband that wasn't theirs.

Cable companies of course have a complete lockout on their market, rubberstamped by chicken**** bought-and-sold local pols.

Lanbrown
Aug 11, 2003, 08:34 AM
There is not doubt about it; holographic is the next storage medium. Development has been ongoing for many years, the storage capacity will far exceed anything that a CD or DVD can hold. A DVD can have to layers, with holographic you have a lot more layers then that and every portion of the cartridge is used.

The question is, will companies waste the time and money on the blue laser? If they do, you will always have backwards compatibility. Once a standard gets implemented, it is very hard to change it later, and a new technology can actually be adopted faster and easier.

Macphoria,

If you read the blue laser discussion, you would have seen the holographic storage remark made by me. Do a little research and you will find all you wanted to know and what it is capable of.

Ryan1524
Aug 11, 2003, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by Lanbrown
There is not doubt about it; holographic is the next storage medium. Development has been ongoing for many years, the storage capacity will far exceed anything that a CD or DVD can hold. A DVD can have to layers, with holographic you have a lot more layers then that and every portion of the cartridge is used.

The question is, will companies waste the time and money on the blue laser? If they do, you will always have backwards compatibility. Once a standard gets implemented, it is very hard to change it later, and a new technology can actually be adopted faster and easier.

Macphoria,

If you read the blue laser discussion, you would have seen the holographic storage remark made by me. Do a little research and you will find all you wanted to know and what it is capable of.


true, HSD (Holo Storage Discs) have been long in development and will be the next widespread storage medium. the problem is, it's not ready for mainstream consumer market for perhaps another 20-30 years. what fills the gap is most likely the Blue DVDs.

macphoria
Aug 11, 2003, 03:18 PM
I do think holographic data storage device is on the way and it looks promising. But as Ryan1524 mentioned, I don't think such device will be made available any time soon.

For now, it seems some kind of optical drive, such as Blue Laser DVD, might be a good choice? Greater storage and backward compatibility? I think backward compatibility is very important issue.

I wonder what could bridge the gap between optical disc and holographic data storage?

patrick0brien
Aug 11, 2003, 04:47 PM
-All

I agree that Holographic is the way to go, considering the density, speed of read/write, and the compactness of the 3 dimentional nature of the medium.

And it may not be too far off. I've been reading items that say that it may only be three or so years away. And this will replace everything, RAMm, HD's, DVD's, CD's, Flash.

It's big.

And it looks to be arriving with practical OLED displays.

As for Blue Laser DVD's, sure, they'll be necessary for HDDVD's when they hit, but a luxury until then. And if Holographic arrives, well, there goes Blue Laser.

BTW- al little info. All a DVD is, is a CD. Two plates of silicon sandwiching a layer of aluminum so thin that if you were able to peel it off the surface of one of the plates and fling it into the air, it would remain suspended like smoke.

What makes the difference is in storage capacity, and that is enabled by the simple fact that a DVD is read with a red laser, and not an infrared one as in CD's. The higher frequency means that one can reduce the pits and lands (1's and 0's) of the surface accordingly. Well, if we move all the way the hell up to 450nm blue laser, it can read even smaller pits and lands. It's simply evolution of the CD.

Wonder if anyone is working on Ultraviolet?

Lanbrown
Aug 12, 2003, 08:22 AM
Holographic storage will be released in the next 12 to 24 months, not years.

Backwards compatibility has very little to do with it. Studios won't release anything on the blue laser discs until the majority of the population has upgraded. Since they are not selling equipment today and probably won't in the very near future, it will be years before it gets adopted. I could see the use in computers, but not in home entertainment.

Holographic storage won't be used for RAM anytime soon. It currently does not handle ever changing small bits of data very well. Magnetic in the computer will survive for at least another decade until holographic is fully functional to replace everything.

Squire
Aug 12, 2003, 08:59 AM
Originally posted by Lanbrown
I could see the use (of blue laser) in computers, but not in home entertainment.

Funny you mention that. I was reading a review of a universal dvd player (the Marantz DV-8300) just recently and the last paragraph stuck in my mind.

"With multi-chassis units with outboard DACs and blue laser coming within a couple of years, I cannot see spending huge dollars for an ultimate unit at this time." From Audiophile Audition, March 2003 (http://www.audaud.com/audaud/MAR03/EQUIP/equip1MAR03.html)


That made me think that at least some material is expected on blue laser DVD in the not-so-distant future. I imagine that the price will be high at first, then later, when more people have adopted it, the price will drop. But who knows.

Squire

P.S. I must say that this holographic stuff sounds pretty cool. Neat thread.

Lanbrown
Aug 12, 2003, 09:31 AM
Digital VHS failed to ever take off. It was slow to come and no one was willing to put much of anything on it until the user base was large enough. The majority of the users are not willing to spend big bucks on the equipment. DVD exploded because of cheap players, which is not what you will see with blue laser equipment products. When DVD player prices were high, the adoption rate was real low. If they come out with blue laser equipment, they will have to convince the public to buy them.

If holographic storage comes out at about the same time, blue laser will have a fight on its hands to survive. Let's face it, it will not survive. It will never have the speed or storage capacity of what holographic can offer.

Squire
Aug 12, 2003, 09:50 AM
Originally posted by Lanbrown
If holographic storage comes out at about the same time, blue laser will have a fight on its hands to survive. Let's face it, it will not survive. It will never have the speed or storage capacity of what holographic can offer.

Real Question: Will holographic be solely related to the personal computer or are there home entertainment possibilities as well? I think the two (PC and home entertainment) will keep getting closer. If the holographic technology can be implemented in a home theater system, my bet's on it. If not, I'll go with blue laser.

Squire

Lanbrown
Aug 12, 2003, 10:27 AM
It will be used for almost everything. PC, home entertainment and eventually replace magnetic storage like tapes, hard disks, etc. Later it will replace memory like RAM, Flash, etc. Imagine a computer with one type of storage; it is used for RAM, archival, etc.

Imagine having hundreds of high-definition movies on one little cube. Try that with a DVD. We are talking terabytes for the same size of a DVD that is talking gigabytes.