Apple Marketshare, iTMS Windows and Apple as a Software Company...

[MacRumors]

Yesterday, Apple's Chief Financial Officer spoke at the Smith Barney Citigroup, Inc. 2003 Technology Conference (http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/main_news.cfm?NewsID=6768) and provided some forward looking thoughts on Apple's position. (Webstream available (http://www.veracast.com/ssb/2003/tech/92210683.cfm))

Key notes from the Speech:

- PowerMac G5 2.0GHz machines now shipping
- 7 Million active Mac OS X users.
- Panther is due before the end of this calendar year.
- Over 5 million Safari downloads since 1.0 release.
- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"
- "We're committed to porting iTunes to the Windows platform by the end of the calendar year"
- The iTunes Music Store for Windows is thought to convince people to purchase iPods and -- over time -- Macintoshes.
- US Consumer Marketshare increasing from 1.2% to 3.5% from Q1 2001 -> Q1 2003.
- Education Marketshare increased from 15% to 16% from 3Q 2002 -> 3Q 2003
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

This Apple August 2003 Investor Presentation PDF (http://homepage.mac.com/cplassiter/.cv/cplassiter/Public/Apple%20Presentation.pdf-link.pdf) provides slides that seem to follow Anderson's talk -- and provides graphs which are referenced in his presentation.

MacObserver provides (http://www.macobserver.com/stockwatch/2003/09/03.1.shtml) their own notes on the speech.

[szark]

Originally posted by Macrumors
"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that become over time less dependant on hardware"

I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...:eek:

As long as they also keep the PPC around, I'll be happy. ;)

[keithcobbett]

Interesting. I'd like to see them retake the education market again though. This is definately a start.

[chazmox]

This sounds good...

Maybe both the Panther and iTunes prediction are somewhat conservative and we'll see both well before the end of the year.

Marketshare has been generally going in the right direction. I don't see any comments on the share growth in laptops - maybe that's because of the late Powerbook updates ( or then again I haven't read the entire PDF presentation ).

[arn]

Originally posted by szark
I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...:eek:


I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

[cubist]

Re becoming more of a software business: I'm glad they view this as a gradual process. Since all the hardware construction is outsourced, there are fewer jobs to protect, which is what killed Star Trek.

iTunes for Windows will be a good litmus test. But I don't expect it to be very successful. In the Windows world, Microsoft has been ruthless about absorbing products, either bundling lookalikes with the OS, cloning, or buying successful companies outright. I expect Microsoft to come out with a "Photoshop killer" fairly soon. The Windows software market is a vast wasteland.

[DakotaGuy]

It is interesting to see that Apple is number #1 in education laptop sales and yet there are so many rumors circulating that Apple is soon stopping iBook production and moving on with offering only professional level laptops. I would tell Apple don't kill the iBook and hand the whole education market away. No school is going to buy fancy Albooks for 5th graders!

[szark]

Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

That's true -- it could mean a lot of things.

I was trying to say that before now, I really didn't think that Apple would change their strategy. But now it seems to me that they are trying to shift to a position where they could lower hardware prices/margins, or allow clones, or even allow multiple architectures.

[irmongoose]

The webstream doesn't work in any browser I tried. Hmm...

Well, anyways, like others pointed out, that statement took me by surprise there. I... I'm speechless. :eek:

DO YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS!?

:faints:



irmongoose

[9hundred]

itunes for window is a good idea

[montecristo]

Originally posted by szark

I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...


Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

I think for Apple, having a healthy software business will help it stay competitive (and leading-edge) in its hardware business. For one thing, it will generate lots of revenue for R&D and for keeping the Apple retail stores open, and for another thing, it will keep people loyal to their macs, so we don't have to rely on other market pressures, like M$ buying Virtual PC or 3rd party designers like Adobe and Intuit always threatening to stop their mac updates.

And, as pointed out in the speech, having good software to show to Windows users will help entice people to check out the mac and hopefully buy one.

Originally posted by Macrumors
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

What I also found interesting was the point about Apple leading the portable market. It might be easier for Apple to compete here because in the portable market, power and design (i.e. portability and weight) are probably a bit more important than price. It is also much harder to design a good laptop at a low price, so Dell and Compaq and all the other PC-box makers can't as easily put together a price-competitor, unlike in the desktop market, where consumers may not be able to justify paying double the price for a iMac when they can get a Gateway or Compaq. (Obviously these folks have not seen the light...and have not done their overall value and enjoyment versus frustration calculations...) But so it goes. The 30% of education market portable users will one day graduate and get desktops to go with their laptops. We'll be waiting....;)

[jxyama]

panther by the end of the calender year... i guess that takes care of some of us who wanted to wait a few more weeks to get panther for free with their macs. now the wait is a few months to get the "free" panther...

[deepkid]

Before you freak out, don't assume that Apple is going to become a software-only corporation. Comprehend what was said... that they would become less dependent on hardware, which is smart of them.

The less that Apple has to deal with Motorola-esque catastrophes, the better.

[JoeRadar]

Originally posted by cubist
I expect Microsoft to come out with a "Photoshop killer" fairly soon.
I think MS has already announced plans to take on Acrobat/PDF. Adobe should be concerned.

[howard]

i hope they get itms out by the end of the year for windows....i'm extremely excited to see how well it will do!

[JoeRadar]

"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that become over time less dependent on hardware"
This really jumped out at me... not so much the content of the words but that someone at Apple has said it.

Lots of items running around the brain: (1) achieving independence from MS (first from IE, now PowerPoint, waiting for Word & Excel); (2) possibility of adding another hardware line; (3) independence from future disasters like the Motorola/G4 dependency; (4) re-introducing the clone market; (5) more stability in revenue; ...

[bankshot]

Originally posted by jxyama
panther by the end of the calender year... i guess that takes care of some of us who wanted to wait a few more weeks to get panther for free with their macs. now the wait is a few months to get the "free" panther...

This is exactly the same as what Steve said at WWDC. Nothing has changed, and no Apple exec is going to say any different until they officially announce the release date. It could be next week or it could be Dec 31. All those rumors about Panther's release date are just as valid or invalid as they were yesterday or last week.

That and the iTMS for Windows by year's end basically didn't tell us anything new. Both have been said repeatedly, without change, since the products have been announced. The software comment was really the most interesting thing here.

That said, let's hope "by year's end" means sooner than later for Panther, as some rumors have suggested. Fast user switching, Exposé, and speed improvements mean it's a mandatory upgrade for me! :D

[SilentPanda]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
(1) achieving independence from MS (first from IE, now PowerPoint, waiting for Word & Excel)

I'm hoping this one pans out soon. I see the $99 deal I can get on Office for students at Amazon which is an excellent deal but if Apple brings out an office suite withing a year or so I'd rather spend my money on that... I don't actually *need* an office suite so it's not a huge deal... but it'd be nice to have one...

[Nemesis]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
I think MS has already announced plans to take on Acrobat/PDF. Adobe should be concerned.

MS has already announced plans to take on God. The Almighty should be concerned.

[mrsebastian]

"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"

i find it hard to believe that apple would stop making hardware and be a software only company, but i wouldn't be surprised to see them really push the envelope for software. even start getting into the pc software market.

itms could be a good experiment for them to see the response from pc users to mac branded apps. furthermore i wouldn't be surprised if apple released a safari version for windows if itms is successful. like i said i doubt it, but if the above were a success, i wouldn't rule out the possibility of osx being released for pc hardware. especially if apple starts to get a foothold with a few pc apps... go, go, apple! i wouldn't mind seeing my apple stock reach the heights of m$.

[3-22]

- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"

My take on this comment... Apple will continue to release new software for an additional source of revenue. With the big success of Final Cut Pro, DVD studio, etc. it's good money. Apple's bread-and-butter is hardware sales, and when the G4 draught of last year hit I'm sure it was hard on them. If they had more software to sell, it would only mean more cash in times of lean hardware sales. Probably an office alternative or something, etc...

To say this is an indication of a switch to Intel, is a BIG stretch...

[Abstract]

Maybe what they mean is that they'll lower the price on hardware and be less dependent on it for revenue, and will raise the prices for software, or make the iApps a cheap option ($50) during your Apple purchase.

Or maybe it means that they'll be getting more of their software onto Windows computers and rely on revenue from that.

[gopher]

Originally posted by Macrumors
Yesterday, Apple's Chief Financial Officer spoke at the Smith Barney Citigroup, Inc. 2003 Technology Conference (http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/main_news.cfm?NewsID=6768) and provided some forward looking thoughts on Apple's position. (Webstream available (http://www.veracast.com/ssb/2003/tech/92210683.cfm))

Key notes from the Speech:

- PowerMac G5 2.0GHz machines now shipping
- 7 Million active Mac OS X users.
- Panther is due before the end of this calendar year.
- Over 5 million Safari downloads since 1.0 release.
- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"
- "We're committed to porting iTunes to the Windows platform by the end of the calendar year"
- The iTunes Music Store for Windows is thought to convince people to purchase iPods and -- over time -- Macintoshes.
- US Consumer Marketshare increasing from 1.2% to 3.5% from Q1 2001 -> Q1 2003.
- Education Marketshare increased from 15% to 16% from 3Q 2002 -> 3Q 2003
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

This Apple August 2003 Investor Presentation PDF (http://homepage.mac.com/cplassiter/.cv/cplassiter/Public/Apple%20Presentation.pdf-link.pdf) provides slides that seem to follow Anderson's talk -- and provides graphs which are referenced in his presentation.

MacObserver provides (http://www.macobserver.com/stockwatch/2003/09/03.1.shtml) their own notes on the speech. [/B]

What? Only 7 million? That's exactly the same number quoted a little over 2 months ago at the WWDC. Do you mean to say they have no new figures since WWDC? Or have there been as many people leaving Mac OS X for Mac OS 9 as purchasing new Mac OS X machines and/or upgrading to Mac OS X? That means Mac OS X growth rate is stagnant. And here they wanted an increase by the end of the quarter.

[Blackcat]

I don't think he means what we think he means.

Being dependent on hardware means if you don't sell any computers, you go out of business!

Currently, if something isn't going very well, income drops. If they become less dependent on hardware, problems like the current lack of Powerbook updates won't cause problems on the balance sheet.

So rather than saying "we are stopping making hardware" I think he was just acknowledging that they need more constant sales and software gets them.

[Stelliform]

Originally posted by gopher
What? Only 7 million? That's exactly the same number quoted a little over 2 months ago at the WWDC. Do you mean to say they have no new figures since WWDC? Or have there been as many people leaving Mac OS X for Mac OS 9 as purchasing new Mac OS X machines and/or upgrading to Mac OS X? That means Mac OS X growth rate is stagnant. And here they wanted an increase by the end of the quarter.

I know I have 10 Macs running OS 9 waiting to go to OS X when panther comes out. Why upgrade to a product that will be out of date 2 months later? If they didn't have yearly paid upgrades they probably wouldn't have a few month lull.

[cubist]

Originally posted by bankshot
This is exactly the same as what Steve said at WWDC. Nothing has changed, and no Apple exec is going to say any different until they officially announce the release date. ...

But didn't Steve say 8/30 for XCode? We don't have it yet.

[Nemesis]

Originally posted by cubist
But didn't Steve say 8/30 for XCode? We don't have it yet.

Ah, Steve also said this is gonna be a year of laptops. But now, it seems to me he meant that they won't touch or upgrade their laptops for this year :D

[sedarby]

Originally posted by szark
I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...:eek:

As long as they also keep the PPC around, I'll be happy. ;)

How in the world did you get OS X for Intel from Apple becoming more of a software company?

[whooleytoo]

Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

I think you're spot on Arn.

I'd be quite happy if this statement simply meant, "We're less dependent on hardware revenues, so we'll be charging for our software more often, and lowering our hardware margins".

[Frobozz]

This post should have finished the "independance of hardware" sentence with "for revenue." I knew people would start thinking Intel again. Apple has consitently tried to diversify their product offerings and it's image to make sure selling CPU's are not their sole source of income. If you look at the numbers, you will need iPods, for example, account for $111M of last quarter's revenues. That's huge.

[Frobozz]

Originally posted by Abercrombieboy
It is interesting to see that Apple is number #1 in education laptop sales and yet there are so many rumors circulating that Apple is soon stopping iBook production and moving on with offering only professional level laptops. I would tell Apple don't kill the iBook and hand the whole education market away. No school is going to buy fancy Albooks for 5th graders!

I agree. The iBook is a fantastic machine. I know several people with one, including my Fiance'. It's probably the best bang for the buck. You get portability, OS X, and a lot of consumer grade capabilities in a VERY affordable package.

[Snowy_River]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
(1) achieving independence from MS (first from IE, now PowerPoint, waiting for Word & Excel); ...

You forgot that they already have an Entourage/Outlook replacement with the growing combined capabilities of Mail, iCal and Address Book.

[Snowy_River]

Originally posted by bankshot
...All those rumors about Panther's release date are just as valid or invalid as they were yesterday or last week...

Unless the rumor was that it was coming out today... ;) :D

[hvfsl]

I think software is the way to go, M$ loses money on all the hardware it makes. From input devices to its Xbox games console. M$ even stopped making game controllers for the Mac/PC recently. They only make money on Windows and Office (but a lot of it).

It does look like there is still a need to go to Intel/AMD because Apple still can't make fast machines that are comparitively priced. Apple only has the speed crown on the top end machine. Not including the G5s, Apple's computers are very slow compared to PCs.

[Doctor Q]

How long before someone starts insisting that Apple be broken up into a hardware company, an operating system company, and an application company?

[areyouwishing]

I know a lot of people that would go to OS X if it was on intel, but its going to be a LOOONG road to that point, I kinda feel that Apple is testing waters with the g5, to see if the (tower)hardware biz is still a legit business. They want to see how dedicated IBM really is, and in the mean time, they are building more emphasis on software...just in case.

I think in 10 years Apple will be more of a software company, but its not going to be how anyone is imagining it now.

[iLife]

Originally posted by Macrumors


- PowerMac G5 2.0GHz machines now shipping


Yes Please, i'm dying to get my computer... the prospect of OSX on my gateway is interesting also, maybe somebody will make use of the power PC's always promised but failed to deliver: and who better than apple! :D

[DGFan]

Originally posted by deepkid
Before you freak out, don't assume that Apple is going to become a software-only corporation. Comprehend what was said... that they would become less dependent on hardware, which is smart of them.

The less that Apple has to deal with Motorola-esque catastrophes, the better.

I am not sure this has to do with catastrophes. Becoming more of a software company does a couple things for them.

#1. Everyone is so fond of pointing out how long people keep their Macs. The problem is that Apple usually makes nothing on these people. Becoming more of a software company allows Apple to make more profits on people who already own Macs.

#2. Following from the previous reason, because Apple can make money in more ways on Mac users they could potentially get more competitive in pricing. This might help them gain market-share. The extra share and profits from other products could offset the lost profits from slimmer HW margins.

They are still likely to be bound to IBM. But having a diverse set of products has got to be a plus!

[Doctor Q]

Nitpick time!

I have two comments about the slide labeled "Mac Advantages in Business":

1. One of the bullets was "Windows compatibility". How can that be an "advantage" over Windows? At best, by definition, it makes Mac OS X equal to, not greater than, Windows for business compatibility purposes. I conclude that this is either inflated marketing fluff or a careless mistake.

2. One of the bullets was "Virtual virus immunity". Isn't that like issuing a challenge to virus-writers - "We dare you to exploit a Darwin bug"? I think it's smart to tout Unix security over Windows security, but not to make overboard claims of "immunity".

Another thing I noticed: The slide showing a switcher says "Yes. I'm a PC guy that switched to Mac." Even if PC users are inferior to Mac users, don't you think they should still be afforded the dignity of being called "who" instead of "that"? :)

[Blackcat]

Of course it might all just be spin because we aren't getting Powerbook G5s or iBook G4s for 12 months.

;)

[Mudbug]

Well, I for one would have liked a conference about apple computer to have a webcast in quicktime format, instead of the two *ahem* options presented by the citi group...

[iLife]

Originally posted by Doctor Q
Nitpick time!

2. One of the bullets was "Virtual virus immunity". Isn't that like issuing a challenge to virus-writers - "We dare you to exploit a Darwin bug"? I think it's smart to tout Unix security over Windows security, but not to make overboard claims of "immunity".

i know this may not hold true, but with the recent viral attacks we've had, it seems that these "virus-writers" almost consider themselves modern day robin hoods fighting an evil corporation, whereas apple doesn't necessarily have the stigma that M$ has.

anyways just a thought...

[SiliconAddict]

Originally posted by gopher
What? Only 7 million? That's exactly the same number quoted a little over 2 months ago at the WWDC.

Keep in mind that most companies like round numbers or fudge with them so "more then 7 million people have switched to OS X". Usually companies don't like pinning down numbers so it leaves the person’s imagination to fill in the 7,xxx,xxx digits.

Also as others have stated its a forgone conclusion that sales of Panther have most likely flat lined after June's preview of Panther. No one in their right mind would buy Jaguar with Panther so close at....hmm...paw?


Also as others have stated its a forgone clonclusion that sales of Panther have most likely flatlined after June's preview of Panther. No one in their right mind would buy Jaguar with Panther so close at....hmm...paw? ;)

As for the rumor itself.....

The iTunes Music Store for Windows is thought to convince people to purchase iPods and -- over time -- Macintoshes.

OK I'm lost. Will this be “THE” official announcement of iTunes for Windows or just the equivalent of the G5 announcement back in June? This software NEEDS to ship ASAP.

As for the potential comment:
"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that become over time less dependent on hardware"

Apple hardware is good but there have been times where it’s boxed them into a corner. The Moto dilemma for example. Eggs in one basket analogy comes to mind. Personally I think it just means Apple wants to further diversify how the company makes its $$$. Let me paint a very ugly picture. Imagine what would have happened if IBM had turned down Apple on the G5 and was stuck with Moto. I’m wondering if Apple may be starting to learn that it can’t fully depend on computer hardware to rake in its earnings. Everyone says Apple is a hardware company. This may be so but it’s a hardware company dependant on other hardware companies to survive. This is a bad thing.
But if this comment does pass the lips of Jobs this may be a fundamental shift on how Apple does business in the future. I say “may” because people overreacted to the whole “Year of the Laptop.” thing too. God only knows what this could mean. Oh and as always..IMHO

[-hh]

Originally posted by SilentPanda
I'm hoping this one pans out soon. I see the $99 deal I can get on Office for students at Amazon which is an excellent deal but if Apple brings out an office suite withing a year or so I'd rather spend my money on that... I don't actually *need* an office suite so it's not a huge deal... but it'd be nice to have one...

There's a Microsoft timebomb on the horizon, though...

With Longhorn, M$ is looking at "Upgrading" Office with digital rights management "features", and the implication that all prior revisions of Office (Windows & Mac) will be incompatible.

Won't be a huge problem on the PC side...that's simply Microsoft's Cash Cow in operation.

On the Mac side, the $64K question is...will there be another MacOffice revision to support digital rights management, or will M$ purposefully dead-end the Mac OS?

They've already shut down IE. Place your bets now.


-hh

[Jerry Spoon]

Good that Apple is #1 in portables in education. Seems like the majority of what we purchase is laptops, and I think more districts will be purchasing laptops for every student as some already are. I'm guessing this will pick up when state budgets are on a rebound and consequently, education budgets are increased as well.

[Jerry Spoon]

Originally posted by -hh

With Longhorn, M$ is looking at "Upgrading" Office with digital rights management "features", and the implication that all prior revisions of Office (Windows & Mac) will be incompatible.
When will we see Longhorn though. Didn't Microsoft just push back their previous release of 2005? I think it might look much different then and who knows what might change.

Originally posted by -hh
Won't be a huge problem on the PC side...that's simply Microsoft's Cash Cow in operation. On the Mac side, the $64K question is...will there be another MacOffice revision, or will M$ purposefully dead-end the OS?
They've already shut down IE. Place your bets now.
-hh
Yea, but IE didn't make them any money, and Office does. Depends on sales. $$$ is still the bottom line for M$.

[SilentPanda]

Originally posted by -hh
On the Mac side, the $64K question is...will there be another MacOffice revision to support digital rights management, or will M$ purposefully dead-end the Mac OS?


Ahhh... that just sold me... I almost forgot about that... usually I just type things up in Appleworks, put 'em on my iDisk, format them at work (on the Windows 2000 box that they make me sit at), and then send them to the appropriate parties in Word 2002 format... but it would be nice to have something at home for the once every two months or so I need it... but I don't need it that bad... I'll wait for AppleOffice or whatever they call it... :cool: :cool:

[jxyama]

Originally posted by Doctor Q
Nitpick time!
1. One of the bullets was "Windows compatibility". How can that be an "advantage" over Windows? At best, by definition, it makes Mac OS X equal to, not greater than, Windows for business compatibility purposes. I conclude that this is either inflated marketing fluff or a careless mistake.


it is an advantage over Windows... overall.

you are right, Windows compatibility will make macs at most equal to Windows if all you are considering is performance as a Windows computer. but since macs is more than just being Windows compatible, it's an advantage...

[JoeRadar]

Originally posted by -hh
With Longhorn, M$ is looking at "Upgrading" Office with digital rights management "features", and the implication that all prior revisions of Office (Windows & Mac) will be incompatible.
Life on the knife's edge... Many countries around the world (latest stories (http://www.itworld.com/AppDev/344/030904japan/)) are railing against MS and pushing open source. By the time DRM-Office rolls into town, there may be enough global momentum behind open source (or at least open formats/standards) that MS's closed and proprietary approach may kill the Office cash cow.

It is a race. Will open source and standards reach critical mass before DRM Office arrives?

[iPC]

Originally posted by -hh
There's a Microsoft timebomb on the horizon, though...

With Longhorn, M$ is looking at "Upgrading" Office with digital rights management "features", and the implication that all prior revisions of Office (Windows & Mac) will be incompatible.

Won't be a huge problem on the PC side...that's simply Microsoft's Cash Cow in operation.

On the Mac side, the $64K question is...will there be another MacOffice revision to support digital rights management, or will M$ purposefully dead-end the Mac OS?

They've already shut down IE. Place your bets now.


-hh
DRM features you speak of requires client-server interaction. Obviously MS knows this is not the case with a vast number of their customers.

[legion]

Two things:

It's great that Apple has the lead in education portables, but really what does that mean?? How does 30% translate to the bigger picture. Schools still buy way more desktops than laptops. It seemed like a contrived claim to show leadership. If you force enough restrictions on any set of data points, claiming market leadership becomes irrelvant when the data points are too few. (On top of which, many of the means to attain that 30% included cutting deeper into profit-margins in the edu divisions. It seemed much like Apple's claim to exceeding the Street's expectations at the end of last quarter, but neglecting to mention all the job cuts conducted prior the quarterly results in order to "exceed" those expectations by only 2 cents, with many of those let go being long-term employees that had been working on the G5 up until presentation time.)

About the mention by another poster about Microsoft and it's take no prisoner strategy... With Photoshop, Microsoft seems to have no interest in targeting it. There hasn't been an update to mspaint since Win3.1. Microsoft seems more interested in an iMovie/FCExpress "killer" with its development and bundling of Movie Maker (especially since v2 seems to be edging from iMovie to FCExpress.) Adobe sees no concerns from Microsoft as much as from Apple's recent strategy concerning PS. I've never seen Adobe "threatening" to stop Mac development. (if you exclude the rumour-mongerring of the Apple faithful) Adobe stopped Premiere because of FCP pricing. In this case, Apple may be it's own worst enemy by targeting products from its own developer base (verses bringing in new products that haven't been supported on OS X) If Apple targets PS, the ROI for Adobe goes to shT and if I were Adobe, I'd stop developing for Apple too (just common business sense); you have to blame Apple if such a scenario occurs. With Acrobat/PDF, Adobe's recent revision of corporate strategy to increase revenue is to increase the PDF/paperless product lines. Adobe sees themselves as the go-getters to take Microsoft Office business more than Microsoft sees themselves as targeting Adobe. True, they're competeing over the same market, but it seems like turn-around for who's targeting who. The Office "security" features seems a bit more geared to creating vendor lock-in for client-server strategies and to rejuvenate the Office product line's revenue streams since there are many businesses that haven't seen the need to update to the latest and greatest Office. (Plus a chance to milk the security-concerns hype surrounding businesses and governments today)

[tizza]

whilist it is great having s/w and h/w that are designed from the start to work with each other - it is quite smart thinking to noe tie themselves to this. But let's not forget, Apple not only comes up with great s/w but also h/w - e.g. firewire!

[tychay]

Originally posted by cubist
I expect Microsoft to come out with a "Photoshop killer" fairly soon. The Windows software market is a vast wasteland.

Umm, that's been tried (http://www.microsoft.com/office/previous/photodraw/discontinued.asp) and the product didn't even last a full year. At the time, they advertised the "ease of use" of Office applied to Photoshop so you didn't have any learning curve (haha).

I guess they didn't realize that even advertising and web graphics are done by designers, and not your typical Office wank who probably only needs to import and resize an image for his/her Powerpoint (http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_pp) presentation.

Of course, next time they could try bundling it with the OS instead of with Office. However, I doubt even that will work. If it were true, everyone would be using Word instead of Final Draft (http://www.finaldraft.com/).

[tychay]

Originally posted by -hh
There's a Microsoft timebomb on the horizon, though...

With Longhorn, M$ is looking at "Upgrading" Office with digital rights management "features", and the implication that all prior revisions of Office (Windows & Mac) will be incompatible.

....

They've already shut down IE. Place your bets now.

Well, let's not be Chicken Little just yet. The DRM features in Office will be "off" by default and give the user the option of "protecting" the content of their documents that way.

Since Microsoft's DRM strategy depends on the hardware vendors playing ball with the OS (right down to the CPU and peripherals), I don't think it's even possible for the Mac version of Office to work with the DRM of Windows Office Longhorn, unless Apple makes a 180 degree shift in their policy and moves from a consumer-friendly DRM to a ... well, you get the idea.

Of course, Microsoft finally "locked down" MSN Messenger for "security reasons" which has the side-effect of keeping out 3rd party messengers. If you look at the history of instant messaging you find that is either highly hypocritical or highly ironic (or both). So I guess you do have a point...

[bikertwin]

Office DRM is coming long before Longhorn; it's in Office 2003 and (requires) Windows Server 2003:

http://news.com.com/2100-1012_3-5069246.html?tag=fd_ots

<changing topic completely...>

So Fred's talk makes it sounds like Apple is in fact coming up with a Photoshop killer, just as I thought. Wasn't there something on ThinkSecret today about that, too? Adobe's clearly worried.

[ColoJohnBoy]

Apple is headed in the right direction by porting iTunes for Windows. I hope eventually they port all the iLife apps, plus Safari, iCal, iChat, and goodness knows what else to PCs. I have to use the bloody things often enough that my life would be a lot easier if I could have Apple software on my Comcrap machine. I don't think it would at all diminish Apple's market share. At worst it would remain the same.

I wonder if Apple has considere combining iTunes for Windows and QuickTime together. People are so used to Windows Media Player, it might be an easier transition to have a single media application.

I don't know. It's 2 am and I'm a wee bit sloshed.

[hvfsl]

Originally posted by Doctor Q
Nitpick time!

2. One of the bullets was "Virtual virus immunity". Isn't that like issuing a challenge to virus-writers - "We dare you to exploit a Darwin bug"? I think it's smart to tout Unix security over Windows security, but not to make overboard claims of "immunity".


The reason for virus immunity is not just because Macs have a small market share, Unix is a much more stable and secure than Windows, so it is also a lot harder to make viruses for Macs. The is also the robin hood reason mentioned earier.

[CooCooCaChoo]

Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

How is a move to Intel relevant in ANY form to this financial outlook? they are simply wanting to ensure that their profits come from a NUMBER of sources NOT JUST COMPUTERS! it would be like Microsoft's only profit stream being Windows for example.

What could this mean? well, in the short and long term, if their profits are spread over MORE products it could mean the LOWERING of prices on computers are Apple will no longer need to make the premiums they currently make on their products, which on average is around 21.7%. If as a net result they lower their price, the cost of production should reduce and as a net result, we COULD see the medium configuration eMacs priced at around $600-$700 mark AND with the up coming G4 1.4Ghz, the consumer line up will be competitive with what is out there in PC land.

As for total shipments, as a vendor, Apple outsells IBM and Gateway in terms of PC's. The ONLY two that are majorly a head are HP and Dell, HOWEVER, the majority of these computers are bought by government departments and large corporations that largely use them for cheap thin clients so that the employee can interact with the mainframe. Want proof? go into any bank and look at the telnet session happening. Want to know how they send out letters? they have a standard template which the employee fills out, the copy is saved and a batch process is done at the end of the week.

Also, considering what the average user does on their computer, most would NOT notice the difference between a 200Mhz bus and a 400Mhz bus. The average user is more concerned about surfing the net, writing letters, sending emails and other "productive" stuff rather than doing what PC fanboys do all day, namely, running UT2003 benchmarks and gloating on the net about their "results".