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zimv20
Sep 11, 2003, 02:51 AM
i know some people here don't like him. i do.


There is no economic policy. That's really important to say. The general modus operandi of the Bushies is that they don't make policies to deal with problems. They use problems to justify things they wanted to do anyway. So there is no policy to deal with the lack of jobs. There really isn't even a policy to deal with terrorism. It's all about how can we spin what's happening out there to do what we want to do.

Now if you ask what do the people who keep pushing for one tax cut after another want to accomplish, the answer is they are basically aiming to create a fiscal crisis which will provide the environment in which they can basically eliminate the welfare state.


I think it comes back to press coverage. Just this weekend, I was looking at something: There's an enormous scandal right now involving Boeing and a federal contract, which appears to have been overpaid by $4 billion. The Pentagon official who was responsible for the contract has now left and has become a top executive at Boeing. And it's been barely covered in the press –- a couple of stories on inside pages. You compare that with the White House travel office in 1993. There were accusations, later found to be false, that the Clintons had intervened improperly to dismiss a couple of employees in the White House travel office.

That was the subject, in the course of one month, of three front-page stories in the Washington Post. So if people don't understand how badly things are being managed now, and have an unduly negative sense of how things were managed in the Clinton years, well, there in a nutshell is your explanation.


I think Iraq is going to cost us $100 billion a year for the indefinite future. Now at one level, you can say, well, that's only about 20 percent of our budget deficit, and it's only about 5 percent of the federal budget. But on the other hand, it's being added onto a very nasty situation. It's a little unpredictable. I don't know how much collateral damage Iraq is going to inflict. At the rate we're going, it's clear that unless something happens soon, we're going to have a much bigger Army. It may seem like we have enough troops, but I've been talking to people, including officers, who are just crying about what they see as the degradation of the Army's quality because of all of this.

Right now, I'm trying to understand what a petroleum industry expert is telling me, when he says that some of the market futures suggest that the market is pricing in about a one-in-three chance that unrest in Iraq spreads to Saudi Arabia. And if that happens, of course, then we're talking about a mammoth disaster.


a good part of the media are essentially part of the machine. If you work for any Murdoch publication or network, or if you work for the Rev. Moon's empire, you're really not a journalist in the way that we used to think. You're basically just part of a propaganda machine. And that's a pretty large segment of the media.

As for the rest, certainly being critical at the level I've been critical -– basically saying that these guys are lying, even if it's staring you in the face –- is a very unpleasant experience. You get a lot of heat from people who should be on your side, because they accuse you of being shrill, which is everybody's favorite word for me. And you become a personal target. It can be quite frightening. I've seen cases where a journalist starts to say something less than reverential about Bush, and then catches himself or herself, and says something like, "Oh, I better not say that, I'll get 'mailed.'" And what they mean by "mail" is hate mail, and it also means that somebody is going to try to see if there's anything in your personal history that can be used to smear you.

It's like shock therapy, aversion therapy. If you touch these things, you yourself are going to get an unpleasant, painful electric shock. And most people in the media just back off as a result.
[...]
Your personal life, your professional life, is much easier if you oscillate between reverential pieces about the commander in chief and cynical pieces which equate minor foibles on one side with grotesque lies or deceptions on the other.


I think you have to think of this as there's more than one player in this thing. If you ask Norquist or the Heritage Foundation about where the economic and social policy intelligentsia really stands, their aim is to roll us back to Herbert Hoover or before. Norquist actually thinks that we've got to get back to before the progressive movement –- before the McKinley era, which actually is one of Karl Rove's guiding lights as well. So there's definitely an important faction in the Bush administration and in the Republican Party that really wants to unravel all of this stuff and basically wants us to go back to a situation where, if you are unlucky, and you don't have enough to eat, or you can't afford medical care, well, that's just showing that you weren't sufficiently provident. And then, for these people, there would be no social safety net whatsoever.

Other people in the party, and other people in the coalition, have deluded themselves into thinking that somehow this is all going to be painless, and we're going to grow our way out of the deficit. Other people really don't care about any of that and are viewing their alliance with these people as a way to achieve their social goals -– basically roll back the revolution in social mores over the past few decades.

So there is a coalition, but there's no question that if you ask what do the core ideologues want, the answer is they want to roll it all back. If you looked at what the Heritage Foundation says, they use the terms "New Deal" and "Great Society" as essentially curse words. Everything Franklin Roosevelt or Lyndon Johnson did to provide a little bit of a cushion for Americans having bad luck is a bad thing, from their point of view.


lots more at:
link (http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/09/11_krugman.html)



Frohickey
Sep 11, 2003, 09:31 PM
Krugman the Keynesian (http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1318)

This is harsh criticism, I realize, so I must explain my views in full. Yes, Krugman has a Ph.D. from MIT in economics, but his writings, both popular and academic, demonstrate that he does not believe in laws of economics. Instead, like most folks with socialist leanings, he believes that the state is both omniscient and omnipotent and simply by fiat can eliminate those pesky little problems caused by scarcity.

Here is an economist deconstructing another 'economist's' arguments. Pretty interesting read, IMO.

zimv20
Sep 12, 2003, 01:05 AM
Originally posted by Frohickey

Here is an economist deconstructing another 'economist's' arguments. Pretty interesting read, IMO.

it is an interesting read. i don't know enough about economics to argue w/ the guy on that level, but his mockery of krugman for claiming that clinton's tax increase saved the economy didn't ring true w/ me. 'cuz i think it _did_ help the economy.

regardless, i like krugman's political analysis. i find myself agreeing w/ most of what he says. not just because he's krugman, but 'cuz he's the voice for things i'm already feeling.

Frohickey
Sep 12, 2003, 02:22 PM
Originally posted by zimv20
it is an interesting read. i don't know enough about economics to argue w/ the guy on that level, but his mockery of krugman for claiming that clinton's tax increase saved the economy didn't ring true w/ me. 'cuz i think it _did_ help the economy.

How does a tax increase save the economy? Taxation reduces the money supply otherwise available for private economic activity, and when government spends it, its not as diversified as when people spend it. When you have a large deficit, its the same thing, you limit the amount of money available for individuals to borrow for diversified economic activity.

The claim that it was all about paying off the debt is false. Clinton would have spent it all if it weren't for Congress stopping him from doing so. Alas, our current Congress doesn't know how to stop spending other people's money either. These people need to be on an allowance.

As to your common ground with Krugman, at least you admitted it, though his economic analysis is usually found wanting. Its his political ruminations that you agree with.

zimv20
Sep 12, 2003, 02:58 PM
Originally posted by Frohickey
How does a tax increase save the economy?


now i'm no macroeconomist, but here's what i've observed over the years:

1. reagan cut taxes, deficit went up, economy went down
2. ghw bush raised taxes, economy starting coming out of recession
3. clinton raised taxes, deficit became record surplus, economy went up
4. bush cut taxes, record surplus became record deficit, economy tanked

if a democrat wins in '04, he'll probably roll back bush's tax cut (though people will call it a "tax increase") and the economy will probably recover.

Daveman Deluxe
Sep 12, 2003, 03:04 PM
Actually, when you look at history, changing economies were largely a result of the PREVIOUS president's action/inaction.

When the stock market crashed in Hoover's term, it was largely due to Coolidge's inaction on growing economic crises during his term (the man slept for 14-16 hours a day!).

Taft
Sep 12, 2003, 03:15 PM
Originally posted by Daveman Deluxe
Actually, when you look at history, changing economies were largely a result of the PREVIOUS president's action/inaction.

When the stock market crashed in Hoover's term, it was largely due to Coolidge's inaction on growing economic crises during his term (the man slept for 14-16 hours a day!).

Could you cite some credible supporting evidence please? As far as I remember from history class the signs of an economic crisis weren't apparent until Coolidge took office.

Also I see no evidence to support the trend you assert to be true. Did Reagan cause the recession realized during Bush's presidency? Were Bush's economic policies the cause of the over-zealous capitalization of internet startups and hence the primary reason for the boom of the 90's?

I need some evidence...

Taft

Desertrat
Sep 12, 2003, 05:03 PM
Hmmm. Coolidge/Hoover were even before my time.

Everything I've read about the 1920s/1930s indicated there was a period of mass speculation in both stocks and in other investments such as Florida swampland. Low margin rates were common. There were also problems with balance of trade and cheap foreign imports. (Sound familiar?) In October of 1929, the bubble burst. Anybody remember the date of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill? That was supposed to be contributory to the world-wide hard times.

There are some economic analyses which claim that the Depression would have ended sooner had FDR not instituted his changes, his "help" programs. I don't know. We were, finally, coming slowly out of it when WW II started. I'd have to guess that rationing and recycling were truly important to the country insofar as paying for the war and maintaining some sort of civilian economy. I know it wasn't very easy; I was seven when the war started.

zim said, "1. reagan cut taxes, deficit went up, economy went down

Reagan took office with a 13% or more inflation rate, inherited from Carter (Initiated by LBJ's guns'n'butter policies). His initial budget was $700 billion, also inherited from Carter. We had stagflation during 1981/1982 as high interest rates took the steam out of a vastly overheated economy. Thereafter, economic activity became more stabilized. Stock prices rose. By the end of his first term, the federal budget had risen to some $900 billion, and to $1.1 trillion by the 1999 budget. (This near-60% increase in eight years compares to the 75% increase in four years of the Carter administration.)

2. ghw bush raised taxes, economy starting coming out of recession

Bush I took office in 1989. The "white collar" recession got going in 1990, and was pretty much over by early 1992--in spite of what Clinton said. Taxes were raised in what, 1991? Bush got blindsided by Demo promises that the new tax monies would not be spent on expanded or new programs. They lied.

3. clinton raised taxes, deficit became record surplus, economy went up

The tax increase was at the beginning of the fantastic leap in economic activity generated by the IT boom and the stock market bubble. Boom times always generate more tax-income to government at all levels. This boom was ending in 2000, with no expectations that the good times would not roll forever. Plus, the end of the USSR allowed a dramatic decrease in military spending.

The question nobody asks is how much higher the GDP would have been had Clinton NOT raised taxes. My own question is, how much of that surplus actually went to paying down the National Debt? Answer: Zilch, zip, nada.

4. bush cut taxes, record surplus became record deficit, economy tanked

Dubya got jumped on during the election campaign in 2000 for a comment about the forthcoming economic problems his advisors foresaw. ("Don't talk about it; that'll make it happen!") The economy did indeed begin to tank during 2000, and is still (IMO) tanking. Again, IMO, his tax cut is peanuts compared to all federal spending or income or GDP. Repealing it would not do doodly squat of notable benefit to anybody.

And so here's today's world of a tanked economy. Personally, I don't think Bush or Dean or Ms Clinton or His Nibs Greenspan has a clue about how to deal with it. "If they coulda, they woulda." It's much like one of those mysterious diseases which isn't fatal, but only time and nature will cure. About the only thing I can guarantee you is that our economy won't get better from tax increases.

'Rat