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MacRumors
Dec 5, 2007, 11:05 AM
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France Telecom announced (http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,2228424,00.asp) Wednesday that Orange sold close to 30,000 iphones in France since its launch last week.

Apple's iPhone launched (http://www.macrumors.com/2007/11/28/orange-announces-iphone-france-and-unlocking-options/) in France on November 29th.

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2007/12/05/30000-iphones-sold-in-france/)



DMann
Dec 5, 2007, 11:13 AM
Tres Cool!!!

Lebannen
Dec 5, 2007, 11:27 AM
The BBC reports in a little more detail (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7128941.stm) - 30,000 iPhones in the first five days, of which 48% of which were new to Orange, and - more interestingly - 20% were sold as unlocked phones.

TheSpecialist
Dec 5, 2007, 02:21 PM
Cette idée paraît très bonne. D'une remise d'Apple:apple:!

In Deutschland ist es nicht so gut.

And in the UK the iPhone should do better to.

samab
Dec 5, 2007, 03:11 PM
Actually the BBC is wrong on their article.

If you read news articles in French --- it only said that 80% of the people chose the "iphone specific" plans.

http://marches.lefigaro.fr/news/societes.html?&ID_NEWS=64306845

Notice that in France you can buy an iphone with a general Orange plan --- in which case the iphone costs 549 euro.

Only 1500 iphones are reported to be bought "contract free" --- that's 5% of the 30000 iphones sold.

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15666/1103/

megfilmworks
Dec 5, 2007, 07:48 PM
Mon Dieu!!

arn
Dec 5, 2007, 10:09 PM
Actually the BBC is wrong on their article.

If you read news articles in French --- it only said that 80% of the people chose the "iphone specific" plans.

http://marches.lefigaro.fr/news/societes.html?&ID_NEWS=64306845

Notice that in France you can buy an iphone with a general Orange plan --- in which case the iphone costs 549 euro.

Only 1500 iphones are reported to be bought "contract free" --- that's 5% of the 30000 iphones sold.

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15666/1103/


I don't think that this is mutually exclusive.

80% of people could have purchased "iPhone Plans"
There are many ways to get an unlocked iPhone... including buying an iPhone Plan and paying $100 extra.

arn

IJ Reilly
Dec 5, 2007, 10:27 PM
Not everyone is treating this as an impressive number.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20071205/tc_nf/57082;_ylt=Aj4Lo5UgRgXl3m7U42lizz4E1vAI

I don't think it's all that great.

Axl
Dec 6, 2007, 12:13 AM
With respect, that analyst from Sterling really should have done a back-of-the-envelope calculation before speaking up. Orange will very (very) easily surpass its target of 100,000 iPhones
in France by the end of the year. Initially, they had to sell 3,125/day to get there. If they've done 30,000 in 5 days, the required rate falls to 2,800/day to sell 70,000 in 25 days. I've shaved off 2 days for holidays.

Given that the phone is available from 680 Orange outlets across France, each store needs to sell about 4 iPhones per day to get there; hardly a stretch for such a well-marketed device. One in every four of these will be legit unlocked. Apple will fix the (very embarrassingly clumsy) MMS issue and the multiple-texting issue in Feb/March time frame. In addition, they will add disk mode and offline email data availability in preparation for SDK launch. This combination will start to attract many potential users who currently find it limiting e.g. business users.

Similar analysis for the US; assuming we ignored the web completely, how well does Apple's iPhone have to do in retail to sell 1.5 million units a quarter? (1.5million units * 6 quarters = 9 million + 1 million from outside the US to get to Mr. Jobs' initial target of 10 million). It turns out that with 178 Apple Stores and 2800 AT&T stores you could (randomly) assume that 35% are sold in Apple Stores and 65% through AT&T.

Breaking that 1.5 million down, it translates to 16,700 iPhones per day. Daunting? Hardly. You need sales of 33 iPhones/day/Apple store or 4 units/hr and 4 units per day at AT&T stores.

Let's just split the Apple Store number and say 2 orders per hour on the web (from the whole of the online US population, ludicrous I know!) and 2 units/hr in the physical store. The iPhone is a Slam Dunk! A product half as good with a tenth the brand awareness can make these sales target numbers. Now, for a product up there above Facebook and Youtube in Google searches both locally and globally and without a match in its UI quality.... iPhone naysayers need to do some arithmetic.

Dropping the price of the iPhone isn't necessary and probably will not happen anytime soon. Marketing doctrine says customers pay for and follow the value created. Apart from the unusual drop in September, Apple's style is to add value rather than cut prices. I think they will stick to their knitting. I'm a European in a US graduate school and fully 10% of my class has an iPhone.
Culturally, the Germans and the French have utmost respect, affinity and acceptance of great engineering when they see it, the Brits are more questioning and skeptical; they'll start turning around as they realize that despite it's shortcomings, most fixable with code (except 3G, external battery and camera) is genuinely not comparable with the crappy phones they have been getting with false subsidies. It's just not in the same class. The iPhone is slower than a 3G device, but what you lose in download time you more than make up for in sensible, intuitive internet navigation and practical web use.

Axl

Axl
Dec 6, 2007, 12:49 AM
If
--> Every O2, T-Mobile, Orange outlet just sells 4 iPhones a day and
--> 2 people in the US buy an iPhone online every hour during business hours and
--> 2 people in the US buy an iPhone at an Apple Store every hour during business hours.

then Apple will be very close to 10 million iPhones sold in a 360-day sales cycle by December 2008. This means NOT including any sales that took place in 2007. That's why analysts predicting around 12.1 to 12.5 million iPhones by Dec-31 next year are probably more right than wrong.

Surely, surely, some of the O2, T-Mobile and Orange outlets can move more than 4 iPhones a day on average. I don't think it's a coincidence that we arrive at similar carrier unit run-rates for 4 different mobile carriers. This is a reasoned metric that was probably market tested by Apple beforehand. Apple has hired some of the best brains out there in many fields, including marketing. This is a sustainable structure.

Currently, iPhones are shipping by Fedex directly from China to online customer orders in the States, with free shipping in 2 or 3 days. This seems really expensive and I wonder if Apple would do it if they could keep sufficient US inventory on hand to satisfy customer pull. Maybe I'm wrong and Apple just really likes FedEx's international rates because they have a good deal.

Teenagers are putting in a week's work helping out with random tasks at the minimum wage and then buying iPhones at the end of the week. To get an iPhone in America, all a teenager has to do is babysit for, at most, one week. Because he/she would has a phone anyway before buying the iPhone, the ongoing cost of the contract is an irrelevant cost in making the calculation, only the incremental portion compared to his/her old plan matters.

cal6n
Dec 6, 2007, 04:57 AM
@ Axl:

Are you studying business? The whole tone of your posts suggests that particular mind-set. If so, you'd better learn something now, before you do real damage to real people in the real world. It's this:

Arithmetic counts for nothing when real people are involved.

All the "reasonable" sales targets in the world are meaningless if potential customers don't agree with the vendor's idea of a bargain. 30,000 in the first week of sales represent the "low hanging fruit" and it's not very impressive. 100,000 by the end of the year is very unlikely. Expect less than 50,000 overall for France and expect similar disappointing (for Apple and their partners) figures from Germany and the UK.

This could change somewhat if and when v.1.1.2 (OOB) falls to the hackers. Expect a significant sales spike in that case.

arkitect
Dec 6, 2007, 05:01 AM
Large percentage probably Karl Lagerfeld buying some Christmas presents for a few close friends… :rolleyes:

evillageprowler
Dec 6, 2007, 06:55 AM
@ Axl:

This could change somewhat if and when v.1.1.2 (OOB) falls to the hackers. Expect a significant sales spike in that case.

Just wondering... why do some folks think that hack-ability will cause a significant spike in sales? I don't claim to be an extremely well-informed follower of iPhone issues, so please forgive me for wondering where is the evidence (or even strong suggestion) that lends credence to the quoted text.

My understanding is that Apple targets the iPhone for the mainstream, and that hackers do not make up the mainstream -- even within the scientific and engineering communities.

EVP

samab
Dec 6, 2007, 09:57 AM
The original news reports in French never said that 20% of the iphones were unlocked. They said that 80% of the iphones were purchased with "iphone specific" contracts. They also said that 1500 iphones (5% of 3000) were sold without any contracts.

So what they are saying is that the other 15% are iphones purchased with other Orange contracts.

IJ Reilly
Dec 6, 2007, 10:26 AM
All the "reasonable" sales targets in the world are meaningless if potential customers don't agree with the vendor's idea of a bargain. 30,000 in the first week of sales represent the "low hanging fruit" and it's not very impressive. 100,000 by the end of the year is very unlikely. Expect less than 50,000 overall for France and expect similar disappointing (for Apple and their partners) figures from Germany and the UK.

IIRC, about a quarter of Apple's first month of US iPhone sales occurred in the first weekend. Given those numbers, I suspect that 100,000 units in France by year-end is doubtful. The article I linked suggested that (1) Europe is a more sophisticated smart phone market compared to the US, and (2) that Europeans are not accustomed to phones being locked to a provider. Apple may be hitting some resistance in Europe which may require them to rethink their strategy.

simontarr
Dec 6, 2007, 12:32 PM
And rethink they should.

We Europeans have got used to getting a phone for free and then deciding what provider gives us the right balance of what we want (mins, texts, mobile internet etc).

I think it's destined to fail in Europe mainly because most people simply won't pay £300 for a phone and then a £35/month contract. I know I won't. And that's where the problem lies- Apple don't have their own mobile network, so they must make their money through hardware sales. Apple simply can't compete with the other manufacturers and mobile networks and the deals they can offer, IMO.

I would LOVE an iPhone but I just can't justify the hardware and contract cost.

Mossie
Dec 6, 2007, 03:23 PM
Hi Guys, My first post on Mac Rumors and I really want an iPhone. Maybe someone could tell me how I go about buying one?

I can get a cheap flight from Dublin to France but I'm wondering can i walk into an Orange shop and purchase an unlocked iPhone with cash, jump back on my plane and use it in Ireland?

Thanks

samab
Dec 6, 2007, 04:18 PM
Hi Guys, My first post on Mac Rumors and I really want an iPhone. Maybe someone could tell me how I go about buying one?

I can get a cheap flight from Dublin to France but I'm wondering can i walk into an Orange shop and purchase an unlocked iPhone with cash, jump back on my plane and use it in Ireland?

Thanks

If the unlocking procedure is like Germany (i.e. unlock via itunes) --- then you have to register for a iTunes France account. But you need to have a valid French IP address and a valid French credit card to do that.

IJ Reilly
Dec 6, 2007, 05:52 PM
And rethink they should.

We Europeans have got used to getting a phone for free and then deciding what provider gives us the right balance of what we want (mins, texts, mobile internet etc).

I think it's destined to fail in Europe mainly because most people simply won't pay £300 for a phone and then a £35/month contract. I know I won't. And that's where the problem lies- Apple don't have their own mobile network, so they must make their money through hardware sales. Apple simply can't compete with the other manufacturers and mobile networks and the deals they can offer, IMO.

I would LOVE an iPhone but I just can't justify the hardware and contract cost.

Most people won't pay it here, either -- but then, the iPhone isn't aimed at most people.

Do any of the phone manufacturers have their own networks? None that I know about. As a result, the providers have long been in the driver's seat. I think the current relationship between the network owners and the phone manufactures is somewhat similar to Microsoft and the PC makers -- with one company calling all the shots and making most of the money. Apple is trying to break a similar hammer-lock owned by the providers in the mobile phone business, by insisting that they have more say, and get cut into the deal.

I'm not sure that's a bad thing overall, but it's bound to work better in the US than in Europe.

OllyW
Dec 6, 2007, 06:13 PM
Apple is trying to break a similar hammer-lock owned by the providers in the mobile phone business, by insisting that they have more say, and get cut into the deal.

I'm not sure that's a bad thing overall, but it's bound to work better in the US than in Europe.

The trouble with that is the mobile phone companies will not give up any of their profit margin. All they will do is increase the cost of the monthly contract and make the consumer pay Apple's cut.

The big problem with this is if the "Apple Tax" makes the phone contract fee appear to be poor value for money. This seems to be the the case with O2's deals in the UK. Even taking the included data and wi-fi into account, they are overpriced. It's not surprising to hear the rumours that sales are disappointing.

samab
Dec 6, 2007, 06:25 PM
The trouble with that is the mobile phone companies will not give up any of their profit margin. All they will do is increase the cost of the monthly contract and make the consumer pay Apple's cut.

The big problem with this is if the "Apple Tax" makes the phone contract fee appear to be poor value for money. This seems to be the the case with O2's deals in the UK. Even taking the included data and wi-fi into account, they are overpriced. It's not surprising to hear the rumours that sales are disappointing.

AT&T decided to eat the cost of the Apple tax. The price of the iphone plan is the same as the price of a regular voice plan with the price of a regular price data plan.