Originally posted by AlphaTech
Jef, I hope you are wrong. There is something very satisfying about having a computer at home, or work, that can be totally independant of the net. What happens when the network that you are on goes down (happens too often for some places), or you run out of IP addresses (we have that happen often in our Boston location)?? Without everything on a stand-alone system, you would be screwed (and not be able to work at all). Network speeds are not where they need to be to support everything hosting off the net (either internet or intranet).
My TiBook is a hell of a lot smaller then a terminal could ever be. Not to mention the fact that it can go anywhere, even if there is not high speed internet connection. I could go out to the middle of nowhere (provided they have electricity) and work. Give me a phone line, and I can check email too.
All in all, I think that terminals will not make the kind of come-back you are talking about. Independant systems give people more options and choices then terminals ever could, or can.
Of course a dumb terminal can't do all the work a "big" workstation can do, but already today you don't need the power of a normal workstation for many tasks, especially the daily office stuff. A Thin Client is enough to run a web-browser and the standard office-apps. No need for a lot of CPU/GPU power. They just need to organize information. Information that is on servers and hosts somewhere.
Pros like us, in the need to have raw power right at their desks are a minority in the future. At least in business life. So keep that in mind.
Of course your TiBook is a nice piece of Hardware, but it is just a Computer, liker any Terminal. I don't see why a Terminal couldn't be even smaller than that, since it is hosting less components!?
In a few years in inhabited areas the net will be always there at any place, using new wireless technology that we maybe even don't know so far (e.g. UMTS in Europe). So as long as you are not at a camp site in the middle of nowhere (you wouldn't have electricity there anyway, right? And if, they will provide the net through the power-cables) that "not being able to connect" shouldn't be an issue.
Of course it is nice to have a stand-alone-machine at home, that can run just for itself with all the software you need, but the question is, is it necessary and even if, is it necessary for everybody? The software industry is killing itself by being forced to produce yearly updates to keep the company running, because that's the only way they make cash.
What I see for the future is, that you will rent Software for a certain time, but not buying it anymore, like today. This way the software manufacturers can concentrate more on features the people really need, instead of pumping up their apps with stuff nobody really needs to have an excuse to sell an update. This is just the beginning.
What all this has to do with the "terminal discussion"? Well, people won't install software anymore (in most cases), they just use the stuff they need at any place at any time. They pay per use or per year/month/week. The cases when you don't have access will be so seldom, that it is probably almost never an issue anyway. Bandwidth will still develop as well as reliability of the network infrastructure. How often do you have to repair and maintain your car these days compared to models 50 years ago?
I am pretty sure the next few years will bring a big change in how we use computers and related devices. We just entered the stone-age...
And one day the use of a "terminal" will give your more choices than a stand-alone-system ever could, or can.
Greetings from Europe,
groovebuster