California Outcome Guesses

[Durandal7]

Anyone care to venture a guess about the outcome of the CA recall? I'm guessing about %55 in favor of the recall with Schwarzanegger at %40, Bustamante at %34 and McClintock at %16.

This is not meant to be an endorsement of a candidate, I just thought it would be interesting to see how close anyone got to the final numbers ;)

[jefhatfield]

i think arnold will get the most votes but i am not sure if the recall will go through...bustamante will get a full ten percent less and mcclintock may not even make double digits...but if he gets over 15 percent, then bustamante could win

1) arnold
2) bustamante
3) mcclintock
4) coleman, gary (the actor)
5) flint, larry (the adult magazine tycoon)

last time i checked, the polls said 52% percent in favor of a recall so it's too close to call

prop 53, for general funds allocation for non school projects, will prolly die
prop 54 for abolishing stating race/national origin, will also go down in defeat

i voted no on recall and no on prop 54

the polls are open for less than one more hour so we will all know the fate of our state fairly soon...my guess is that we will know by 11 pm pst...either arnold will be a very happy man or he will be terminated

[Durandal7]

If the past few election were any indications the networks will try and declare a winner about half an hour after the polls close.

[Backtothemac]

Yes on recall 63%

Arnold 51%
Bust 25%
McClin 14%

11% Others

[jefhatfield]

Originally posted by Backtothemac
Yes on recall 63%

Arnold 51%
Bust 25%
McClin 14%

11% Others

that would be a wide swing of a liberal to moderate state to the moderate to conservative voting pattern of a new hampshire or a southern state...i just don't see that happening...arnold will get the most votes...but by 2 to 1??...that would be amazing for him but i don't think half of the people voting will go for a political newbie

if he got that, with help of orrin hatch (r-utah) and his non american born idea of prez candidates, the terminator could easily take on W for the presidency and win...if arnold went against W, whose numbers have fallen since the end of the war, arnold would handily beat him

arnold does not have major skeletons in his closet...but neither did W but now he has a bad us economy in his watch and if things don't get better for the usa soon, then W has an uphill battle for sure

[Durandal7]

Originally posted by jefhatfield
that would be a wide swing of a liberal to moderate state to the moderate to conservative voting pattern of a new hampshire or a southern state...i just don't see that happening...arnold will get the most votes...but by 2 to 1??...that would be amazing for him but i don't think half of the people voting will go for a political newbie


I have a feeling that this election will surprise all of us. I'm betting we will see a much larger then expected majority supporting either Davis or Schwarzanegger. I'm just not sure who yet.

[Sayhey]

Originally posted by Durandal7
I have a feeling that this election will surprise all of us. I'm betting we will see a much larger then expected majority supporting either Davis or Schwarzanegger. I'm just not sure who yet.

I agree. I'm afraid we are going to have a repeat of the Minnesota election. A lot of new young voters, especially young men voting for Arnold. I hope I'm wrong. The polls are getting ready to close so I'm off to wring my hands in front of the TV.

[Dont Hurt Me]

i dont think it will be a surprise, i predict Arnold wins big and yes on the recall by the way if you have to ask. people are getting sick of those tax & spend liberals even if they are democrats. when people got those car tax bills that tripled that was enough to boot his butt. so what do you think the out come will be is no mystery except to the democrats.

[Durandal7]

Matt Drudge is saying that the networks will declare a winner shortly after the polls close and that the Arnold campaign is preparing to deliver an acceptance speech...

Drudge is also posting the following exit poll data:
LATEST EXIT POLLS SHOW 59% VOTE 'YES' FOR RECALL, TOP CAMPAIGN AND MEDIA SOURCES TELL DRUDGE REPORT, 51% FOR SCHWARZENEGGER, 30% FOR BUSTAMANTE, 13% MCCLINTOCK

An AP article hinted around that the networks had this data and were preapring to release it in a news flash after polls closed.

"I'm surprised how long it's taken him this time," said Larry Rosin, president of Edison Research, which with Mitofsky International was conducting exit polls for TV stations, networks and newspapers.

[IJ Reilly]

Who cares what Matt Drudge says?

I mean, really?

[jefhatfield]

arnold seems to have beat bustamante by a huge margin and it was more than i thought possible

and the democrats seem quite willing to cooperate, despite the tough rhetoric as seen by cnn

the recall margin seems to have won by a much smaller margin with 20 percent of the votes in and it appears the hispanic vote in california was the deciding factor with half of the vote for the recall...ten percent the other way at 60 to 40 against would have made davis win

[Backtothemac]

Schwarzenegger
1,012,890 51%
20% of precincts reporting
Bustamante
602,674 30%

[jefhatfield]

Originally posted by Backtothemac
Schwarzenegger
1,012,890 51%
20% of precincts reporting
Bustamante
602,674 30%

hey bttm, your prediction of arnold way way ahead came true

...not a ten percent advantage but more than twice that and close to double i now think before the night is up

huffington looked angry, mcclintock looked devastated, davis looked depressed, and bustamante looked beaten...arnold took them all on and though he was viciously attacked by them, he prevailed...but they all were able to say they will support arnold but none of them seemed sincere...they all wanted to win this thing

[IJ Reilly]

Originally posted by jefhatfield
huffington looked angry, mcclintock looked devastated, davis looked depressed, and bustamante looked beaten...arnold took them all on and though he was viciously attacked by them, he prevailed...but they all were able to say they will support arnold but none of them seemed sincere...they all wanted to win this thing

Actually, most of them probably wish it had never happened.

[zimv20]

are we now taking bets on how long until the davis/bustamante vs. enron suit is either dropped or settled for pennies on the dollar?

[zimv20]

with 32% of the precincts reporting, Mehr is beating fellow republican candidate Forte 73 votes to 70.

i'm on the edge of my seat.

[Sayhey]

With 39% of the precincts reporting the recall has closed to a 10% difference. Think it can get to within 8%? God, I think I need a drink! Arnold and his stupid movie lines for three years. And zim, I think they will wait at least a week before pulling the plug on the suits. Don't want to be too obvious.

Edit: Hey, I just noticed there are no votes counted yet in Alameda County. I may get my 8% yet!

http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/recall/01.htm

[Backtothemac]

Yea, as of now it is down to 8% seperation.

Again, it may get larger, or smaller.

Still, it is democracy in action, and I think it sends a message to all of the other politicans out there.

The people of this country are tired of the crap that comes from BOTH parties. We are tired of being treated like we are not smart enough to determine our own paths in life. We are tired of taxes, and we are tired of YOUR spending.

I really hope Arnold can pull off what California needs.

[Sayhey]

Originally posted by Backtothemac
We are tired of taxes, and we are tired of YOUR spending.


My spending? I wish I could spend some more but my checkbook won't allow it. If you mean government spending - I'm with you BTTM, let's start with that 87 billion Bush requested for Iraq, OK? There are a few other multi-billion dollar pentagon ventures I'd like to cut out as well. Star Wars? It is stupid and a tremendous waste of money.

If you are talking about our California budget problems, we will see how Arnie does in cutting programs that people need to survive. I wonder how popular he will be then with his "hasta la vista, baby" nonsense?

[zimv20]

Originally posted by Sayhey
I wonder how popular he will be then with his "hasta la vista, baby" nonsense?

oh, has he cut children's health care already?

;-)

[Dont Hurt Me]

people are waking up and saying enough is enough, im glad there where so many that voted how they feel rather then just blindly pulling the democrat lever. pretty amazing even down to the last wire all i ever heard coming out of the mouths of the demos' was still tax & spend and how they were going to court over yet another election they clearly lost. they just dont get it.

[jefhatfield]

with 52 percent of the voters saying yes to the recall the day before the election, some thought this would be super narrow and the recall may get only 51 percent in a win, but after the battle last night, the recall got 54 percent but it still was a nail biter...gop strategists wanted at least two thirds so they could coronate arnold minutes after the close of the polls...cnn already projected arnold the winner with one percent of the precincts reporting because democratic strongholds yielded to arnold more than expected

but on the candidate front, arnold smashed the competition and i have to admit, my democrats got soundly beaten...if republican mcclintock bowed out, then arnold would have beaten all the remaining candidates 3 to 1 combined! the gop wished it could find a presidential candidate this powerful

if arnold is legal to run for prez, like senator hatch wants, then he will be unstoppable if and when he decides to run...it's camelot, but gop style and there's a kennedy in there, to boot...he he:p

[Dont Hurt Me]

i think a big part of the win was that people didnt like what Davis and his party had done. another big factor is that Arnie is a moderate and fiscal conservative. Bill Clinton was a moderate and fiscal conservative. America wether you like it or not is in the middle and those that stray to far left-or to far right will find themselves on the sidelines.

[jefhatfield]

Originally posted by Dont Hurt Me
i think a big part of the win was that people didnt like what Davis and his party had done. another big factor is that Arnie is a moderate and fiscal conservative. Bill Clinton was a moderate and fiscal conservative. America wether you like it or not is in the middle and those that stray to far left-or to far right will find themselves on the sidelines.

reagan invented playing the middle...could be a thing he learned in the gipper...he he

and clinton followed suit and played the middle

and they both won two terms...right wingers like dole and left wingers like mcgovern lost due to their inability to see the other side for its good points

[Dont Hurt Me]

so true, i think Bush has to be very careful on this or he will be to far right which he is for me lately and Dean is way left and needs to wise up. Americans aint going to put up with it anymore as was shown in california. this should wake up both parties i hope.

[K4NN4B15]

I think what this really proves, is that there are alot more voters who watch professional wrestling and nascar than the news. All you have to do is put on a better show and cover more newspapers.

I dont really see how this has anything to do with policy that is going to wake up politcians. I havent really heard a word of policy out of Arnold's mouth. And when it comes down to it, he seems pretty liberal. just happens to be a republican because hes rich. Since most of the country isnt rich, id say more republicans are republicans because they are conservative or are just confused and like the sound of "tax cut".

I dont live in cali, and i only hear soundbites so i dont know the whole story. Davis doesnt seem that impressive but i have a hard time beliving that after voting him in 5 terms, he is suddenly too horrible of a governor to leave him in for another year. All it really proves, is that the country is full of flakes who perfer flash to substance.

[Dont Hurt Me]

or perhaps these same flakes want people in office doing the work of the people rather then special interest.

[IJ Reilly]

Originally posted by K4NN4B15
I think what this really proves, is that there are alot more voters who watch professional wrestling and nascar than the news. All you have to do is put on a better show and cover more newspapers.

California politics are like that. We didn't know what Proposition 13 "proved" either until it was too late. I can verify that the Schwartzenegger campaign was about 85% flash and star-power, and charitably 15% substance. Everything was very tightly scripted. Casting him as a "regular guy" (with a couple hundred mil to his name) was a triumph of stagecraft over reality. Substance wasn't being demanded by the voters, so why should a candidate deliver any?

I'll try to restrain myself from trying to guess what any of this means until events start to sort to themselves out. That will take a few months, at least.

[jefhatfield]

Originally posted by IJ Reilly
California politics are like that. We didn't know what Proposition 13 "proved" either until it was too late. I can verify that the Schwartzenegger campaign was about 85% flash and star-power, and charitably 15% substance. Everything was very tightly scripted. Casting him as a "regular guy" (with a couple hundred mil to his name) was a triumph of stagecraft over reality. Substance wasn't being demanded by the voters, so why should a candidate deliver any?

I'll try to restrain myself from trying to guess what any of this means until events start to sort to themselves out. That will take a few months, at least.

...or years

[mactastic]

I loved what Steven Colbert of the Daily Show said in a CNN interview this morning. He called the Schwatzenegger victory "a glorious explosion of democracy" and suggested that "if voting is good, then voting every 11 months is better. Or every 4 months. Or every couple days." He also suggested we should implant electrodes into the heart of every polititian, and every morning we vote on whether they have made us exceedingly happy or not, and if the vote is against them, it stops their hearts.:D

[jefhatfield]

hey mactastic,

i wish we could have had an explosion of democracy in florida in 2000 and recalled that state and had a fair one day runoff slated for a later date, like on a sunday in the next month...man to man...bush vs. gore

i think if that were the case, they only truly liberal southern state would have sent W back to austin:p