Poll: How many songs will iTunes for Windows sell in a week? [Archive]

Freg3000

Oct 13, 2003, 11:14 AM

It is hard to guess even using a mathematical approach, simply because there are some wild variables. Such as, what Windows OSes will iTunes support? XP & 2000 only? And how do you account for the Mac-head's enthusiasm for anything Apple related? Surely Windows users won't be so excited. But this may all be cancelled out because of the sheer number of windows users.

For the record, I said 5 million.

howard

Oct 13, 2003, 11:22 AM

ok a few things here...first of all do we know how well musicmatch has been doing? how many songs they've sold in their first week? thats something to compare it too..

also keep this in mind...mac users usually have more money than pc users...and also mac users don't have something like kazaa to get music...therefore have less of a chance at pirating and more of a chance and buying...

sorry bout the negatives...i hope they do extremely well...say 3 million in one week and it just goes up from there...lets hope!!!

chickengrease16

Oct 13, 2003, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by howard
and also mac users don't have something like kazaa to get music...therefore have less of a chance at pirating and more of a chance and buying...

not true... limewire can be found even on the demo machines at compusa! and its a great program. also poisoned is showing great potential for mac file sharing, as it can connect to kazaa, openft, and gnutella networks. while i personally dont download copyrighted music, the programs are out there for the mac and all of the mac users i know use them.

noverflow

Oct 13, 2003, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by howard
ok a few things here...first of all do we know how well musicmatch has been doing? how many songs they've sold in their first week? thats something to compare it too..

also keep this in mind...mac users usually have more money than pc users...and also mac users don't have something like kazaa to get music...therefore have less of a chance at pirating and more of a chance and buying...

sorry bout the negatives...i hope they do extremely well...say 3 million in one week and it just goes up from there...lets hope!!!

people dont know it but there is a kazaa client for the mac... poisined

howard

Oct 13, 2003, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by noverflow
people dont know it but there is a kazaa client for the mac... poisined

we do know it, but its not very good, along with a whole slew of other p2p clients.

AmigoMac

Oct 13, 2003, 11:48 AM

Starting with no more than 750.000 but no less than 500.000, second week will give 1.500.00 and at the end of the 1st month nearly 3.500.000... just a guess!

Wait and see!

bertagert

Oct 13, 2003, 11:49 AM

I think it depends on a few things.

1. How much ad blitz will Apple be doing. It looks like there will be a ton this week (especially targeted to the 18 - 30ish age group).

2. Is it for ME/XP/2000 only? If so, they're leaving out a ton of people still using win 98. I have win 98 at work but have been able to do firmware updates in a round about way to install ipod software. Maybe Itunes won't install on 98 but only ME and above. I lot of people onlyhave 98 at home because they haven't needed to upgrade because the main computer is at work. I think this is one of the big factors.

3. Are the servers ready for the response? There will be a huge load on the itunes download first. Then comes the songs downloaded. It could easily bring the service to a crawl. I'm sure Apple has this factored in but a few million people downloading 3+ MB files every second will take its toll on any setup.

4. How many songs are available? Hopefully Apple was able to ad 200k to the list. I personally don't think Napster has 500k songs for download. More like 250k for download & burn, and an extra 250k for the radio thing. If so, Apple doesn't have to have 500k songs just yet. Plus, I firmly believe that the songs are regulated by the music companies not the services. If so, no service will be better than the other in music selection.

My guess is 2 million (from windows users only) the first week. I actually believe the second week will be the higher of the two as word spreads through the office. I also think more mac folk will be downloading this week because of the renewed ads sparking interest. Maybe 2.5-3 total songs the first week.

Lets hope we're wrong and they do 4 or 5 million in a week. That would put all other services right into the ground.

macMaestro

Oct 13, 2003, 12:00 PM

I think the prime factor will be how well Apple can get the word out. Another factor is how much coverage they get from the media.

I say 4 million.

DeusOmnis

Oct 13, 2003, 12:10 PM

Everyone already had iTunes when iTMS came out for macintosh. So I guess it all depends how hard Apple hits the world with advertising.

I put 5 million, but thinking about it, i expect 1-2 million.

pyrotoaster

Oct 13, 2003, 12:32 PM

Interesting question...

What about this "rockin'" ad that's supposed to air during Friends on Thursday? What if it isn't for the iPod... ;)

That's advertising for ya'.

Bunzi2k4

Oct 13, 2003, 12:33 PM

my guess is 2-3 million... could be more, could be less. it all depends on how apple plays it w/ advertisement and how many people download it ect.

Freg3000

Oct 13, 2003, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by DeusOmnis
Everyone already had iTunes when iTMS came out for macintosh. So I guess it all depends how hard Apple hits the world with advertising.

I put 5 million, but thinking about it, i expect 1-2 million.

But everyone had to download iTunes 4 in order to get the iTMS.

j33pd0g

Oct 13, 2003, 12:38 PM

Maybe half a mill. Second week may reach a mill. Holiday season will be the biggest... 2 mill. Sometime in Feb. numbers will dip down to around 50,000.

michaelrjohnson

Oct 13, 2003, 12:42 PM

I think (respectfully) that you all are underestimating the sheer volume of PC users in the US. If Mac users can accompish over 1,000,000 in one week, imagine that over the PC populus. (let's just assume) For every 1 Apple Mac OS X user, there are at LEAST 9 more PC users. That multiplied over the entire population is alone a 900% increase! I would say definitly more than just 2 million... I put my guess at around 10 million... (yeah, i'ts high hopes, but seriously folks) there are A LOT of PC users out there.

PS I HAVE to disagree with the person who said that PC users dont' have as much money as Mac users. That's bologona! Hello? Most corporations use PC's, therefore most execs have home PCs. Also, check out prices on home-built extreme gaming machines. Some users spend more than $5000 on a system. That's just flat out wrong, I'm sorry. </rant>

pyrotoaster

Oct 13, 2003, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by j33pd0g
Maybe half a mill. Second week may reach a mill. Holiday season will be the biggest... 2 mill. Sometime in Feb. numbers will dip down to around 50,000.
50,000? I'd think Apple would be able to keep a weekly average higher than that with about 95 percent of the computing market.

pilotgi

Oct 13, 2003, 01:00 PM

I think there's enough prejudice out there against Macs among pc users that ITMS for windows will get off to a slow start. Not to mention the people on dial-up who will need to download for about 2 hrs.

I voted one million and I hope that improves quickly.

j33pd0g

Oct 13, 2003, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by pyrotoaster
50,000? I'd think Apple would be able to keep a weekly average higher than that with about 95 percent of the computing market.

I wouldn't want numbers to dip... but after the buzz dies down I think all the peecee pirates will head back out to sea. Every peecee user I come across give me a hassle when I tell them I'd rather buy music and not swipe it. So I think they'll just go back to the ol' rape and pillage they were used to. I believe that there is some good to be found in a peecee user, so a few will remain and do it the Apple way. Maybe 50,000 was a little too harsh... Anyway there will probably be a big virus out in Feb.

jer2665

Oct 13, 2003, 01:56 PM

out of itunes on windows, i see someone cracking the security. instead of having to burn it and rip it from a cd, someone will find where the security stuff is saved on the file, and make a program which removes all that.

what i do think is funny is that i can just imagine the day after it opens how many songs people will download from kazaa that ask for the security password, thus making the download useless.

howard

Oct 13, 2003, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by michaelrjohnson

PS I HAVE to disagree with the person who said that PC users dont' have as much money as Mac users. That's bologona! Hello? Most corporations use PC's, therefore most execs have home PCs. Also, check out prices on home-built extreme gaming machines. Some users spend more than $5000 on a system. That's just flat out wrong, I'm sorry. </rant>

i don't usually see the big five targetting the corp exec market in their music ads...

what counts is the people who buy music...a lot of rich college kids have macs, not many poor college students do...and the richer you are the more music you can/are willing to buy. also the more creative people who like listening and buying music tend to own macs... i think that a higher percentage of mac users buy songs off itunes than pc users will ever buy off a service, at least in comparison.

say 70% of mac users regularily use itms.... i would say 30-40% of the pc world will use it... hypothetically speaking... while that smaller percent is more people it can't be compared directly to the amout of people using itms for mac

ColoJohnBoy

Oct 13, 2003, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by chickengrease16
not true... limewire can be found even on the demo machines at compusa! and its a great program. also poisoned is showing great potential for mac file sharing, as it can connect to kazaa, openft, and gnutella networks. while i personally dont download copyrighted music, the programs are out there for the mac and all of the mac users i know use them.

LimeWire is a great program, but just for the record, if it's on any machine at an Apple Retail Store or reseller, that means a customer put it on there; Apple is STRICT about what software is/is not allowed on their demo machines, and LimeWire, or any other P2P, is never allowed.

As far as the topic at hand goes, I don't think people should sell iTMS for Windows short. I know plenty of PC users with iPods that are chomping at the bit for a better program than MusicMatch (Which really is a pain in the butt to set up) - even if they don't know about the Music Store feature, they'll at least give it a shot, if not fall totally in love with it.

I think next week is gonna be big.

wdlove

Oct 13, 2003, 02:40 PM

I want to be optimistic, but not an unreachable goal. I voted 2 million, then there is a chance that I could be pleasantly suprised.

michaelrjohnson

Oct 13, 2003, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by howard
i don't usually see the big five targetting the corp exec market in their music ads...

what counts is the people who buy music...a lot of rich college kids have macs, not many poor college students do...and the richer you are the more music you can/are willing to buy. also the more creative people who like listening and buying music tend to own macs... i think that a higher percentage of mac users buy songs off itunes than pc users will ever buy off a service, at least in comparison.

say 70% of mac users regularily use itms.... i would say 30-40% of the pc world will use it... hypothetically speaking... while that smaller percent is more people it can't be compared directly to the amout of people using itms for mac

Not every person that buys music is a college student!!! I know MANY people who buy music, who AREN'T in college, and needless to say, are much less poor than I am (being a poor college student myself). You are making some very hasty generalizations. I am just saying, not to underestimate the sheer volume of PC users who listen to/buy music. Not every PC owner is evil, not every PC owner steals music, not every PC owner is poor.

Look at it this way, how many people use Mac OS X, listen to music regularly, don't steal music, and decide they want to use iTMS. Thats a VERY small group of people. Look at the number of PC users (lets just say Windows 98 and above) who listen to music, don't steal music. By default, "richness" or "poorness" aside, statistically that is a MUCH larger group of people. That can't be argued. Even if support for iTMS from PC users is not as good strong as it is from Mac OS X users, there is a much larger amount of people who can try and thus, the total sales will be higher than the mac community by a LOT.

:-D

sososowhat

Oct 13, 2003, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by howard
say 70% of mac users regularily use itms.... i would say 30-40% of the pc world will use it

If 30-40% of the pc world used itms it would be a route. I'd guess we'd be very happy with 5% of PC users using iTMS in the first year. Probably only 10-15% download music at all. That's just my guess, but remember most PC users aren't students. Also, it'll take a while for PC users to download iTMS. We had to upgrade to iTunes 4, but Apple makes doing that very easy - easier than installing & learning to use new software for a WinHead.

Even 5% of PC's is equal to 100% of Mac's (4% vs ~90% market share).

So over the next year I'd guess: ~1 million/week Mac, plus over time ~2 million/week PC. A lot depends on how much advertising Apple does. I'd guess that more advertising for competing services also would help (not hurt) iTMS because it makes buying music online more of the conventional way to go.

Finally, I'd second all Bertagert's comments. I think he nailed it.

howard

Oct 13, 2003, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by michaelrjohnson
Not every person that buys music is a college student!!! I know MANY people who buy music, who AREN'T in college, and needless to say, are much less poor than I am

demographics say otherwise...

of course other people buy music but the vast majority are younger people

Originally posted by michaelrjohnson

Look at it this way, how many people use Mac OS X, listen to music regularly, don't steal music, and decide they want to use iTMS. Thats a VERY small group of people. Look at the number of PC users (lets just say Windows 98 and above) who listen to music, don't steal music. By default, "richness" or "poorness" aside, statistically that is a MUCH larger group of people. That can't be argued. Even if support for iTMS from PC users is not as good strong as it is from Mac OS X users, there is a much larger amount of people who can try and thus, the total sales will be higher than the mac community by a LOT.

:-D

i already said that the pc group would be a much greater pool of people...the point i was trying to make is that you can't say 1mill for mac itms = 10million for pc cause its 10x the audience

i should also say that any numbers percentages in this or any of my posts aren't actually what i believe they are or will be but just examples to show you guys what i'm thinking

mc68k

Oct 13, 2003, 04:06 PM

ppl in general hate macs, so ithink it'll be a while before ppl jump on the bandwagon. there's kazaa that apple will have to compete with.

i think more ppl will DL once the word gets out. word gets out fast in the mac community about mac things, but in the pc community mac ideas will be slower, since the "pc computer media" is biased.

it will also depend on how good itunes for windows is.

bertagert

Oct 13, 2003, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by mc68k
ppl in general hate macs, so i think it'll be a while before ppl jump on the bandwagon.

If so many people do, how come so many windows users have bought ipods?

Apple is doing a fine job of moving more and more people to their platform. Your not going to see a 20% gain in market share anytime soon but maybe a percent point here and there, year after year.

People like Apple. The itunes/ipod experience is going to prove that.

howard

Oct 13, 2003, 04:19 PM

an ipod isn't really a mac, its completely different.

and by saying people generally hate macs i think he means that pc people generally hold a bias against macs...but like you said this is slowly wearing down, which is great.

hopefully people will make there way to itunes for windows and just try it out...i remember the gazillions of freeware apps i would try all the time on my pc...and hopefully they'll like it and use it. i guess we'll just have to wait and see....and help the process along by telling everyone you know about it

mc68k

Oct 13, 2003, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by bertagert
If so many people do, how come so many windows users have bought ipods?ease of use and aesthetics. it's not really a mac either, just has mac qualities

bertagert

Oct 13, 2003, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by mc68k
ease of use and aesthetics. it's not really a mac either, just has mac qualities

You said people won't be downloading itunes/music from Apple because people don't like macs.

I'm saying if that were true, windows people would have never bought an ipod. Itunes isn't a mac just like ipods aren't macs. I think windows people will be ituning it in a big way come this weekend. Apple is really making a point in the new ipod commercials that the ipod (and I'll bet ITMS on thurday) are mac and pc compatible.

Or am I missing something upthread?

adamberti

Oct 13, 2003, 05:54 PM

I'd have to agree with the people saying there are just too many variables. What system will it work on, how enthousiastic will PC users be towards it, how quick will the word spread. It'd definitely not a 20x users = 20 million. At the same time though, I think they could hit 5 million. I think that it will go up as time passes on and more people realize it is an excellent service. With iTunes 4 for mac, a little window popped up on your mac and told you there was a new version to download and you did (Software Update) Apple will have to rely on media and word of mouth to penetrate the market.

I think the little things here are going to make the difference when it comes to adopting a new program. On the Mac, iTunes will search your harddrive for all the media when you first open it. I'd like to see iTunes for PC import all the other playlists from WinAmp, Windows Media Player, MusicMatch, etc. If a PC user can just open up iTunes and it has all his playlists and music in it, I think that will make a huge difference for them.

Go Apple!