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Harthansen
Jan 25, 2008, 06:31 PM
Apple's stock (APPL in NYSE) has plummeted $68 in the last 30 days (from $198 to $130 or 35%) does anyone know what has caused this? Curious...

-Hart

fs454
Jan 25, 2008, 06:35 PM
It definately did drop more than all the other stocks out there, i'm curious as well.

Maybe we were all hoping for...you know, some ACD updates, a tablet, more refreshes, etc >_>

gr8tfly
Jan 25, 2008, 06:35 PM
MacWorld, quarterly report and market in general. Expectations of MacWorld beyond reality and can't top iPhone. Quarterly report also not up to predictions, most of which were not from Apple. The rest was tracking the market, in general (compare today's chart for AAPL with the Dow).

Good time to buy, from what I can see. Actually bought more, myself.

Cloudane
Jan 25, 2008, 06:39 PM
Not a stock expert, but I do know the tech industry on the whole is suffering a bit of a slump at the moment. Redundancy cometh where I work.

Luis
Jan 25, 2008, 06:40 PM
It's not only Apple, it's the whole market AFAIK.

Muncher
Jan 25, 2008, 06:41 PM
Good time to buy. $$ :D

GroundLoop
Jan 25, 2008, 06:45 PM
The biggest cause of the stock drop was the quarterly earnings report. Essentially iPod sales in the US are flat (~5% growth year over year). That scared a lot of investors into thinking that the cash cow is almost milked dry. Then, on top of that, Apple gave an ultra-conservative estimate for Q2 base on the slowing economy and sales seasonality. Apples estimates for Q2 were WELL BELOW Wall Street's expectations.

Hickman

valdore
Jan 25, 2008, 06:45 PM
Apple's stock (APPL in NYSE) has plummeted $68 in the last 30 days (from $198 to $130 or 35%) does anyone know what has caused this? Curious...

-Hart


The ticker is AAPL, and it's traded on Nasdaq, not NYSE.

barijazz
Jan 25, 2008, 06:58 PM
Apple just released its quarterly, and while it was higher than apple's expectations it did not meet analyst's expectations.

GroundLoop
Jan 25, 2008, 07:10 PM
Apple just released its quarterly, and while it was higher than apple's expectations it did not meet analyst's expectations.

Not quite. Q1 exceeded everyone expectations financially. But it was the appearance of slowing iPod sales that scared everyone. The reason that Apple made its numbers is because Mac sales were extremely strong and covered the slowing iPod growth.

That and the very weak guidance for Q2 would scare a lot of investors who thought that Apple was a safe haven.

Hickman

TEG
Jan 25, 2008, 07:43 PM
Apple reported a great previous quarter, but thinks that the next quarter may see fewer sales due to a perceived slowdown in the US economy (even though anyone with even a gnat's knowledge of economy would know that it is not a big deal). The stock market is a bet on future performance, not past performance, therefore people who have no idea what they are doing [read: most investors] dumped the stock to make their profits. I have 50 shares at a split adjusted cost of $10, so I'm holding on to it for the long run.

TEG

ryanmcd02
Jan 25, 2008, 08:26 PM
The aforementioned reasons of poor market and low expectations for the next quarter.

But what this also indicates is that the wealth effects of the poor market now will especially hurt Apple this year since Apple makes relatively expensive or high-end products. More expensive goods are more elastic; Apple's products are more affected by decreases in (perceived) wealth than cheaper goods. The price tag on the iPhone becomes much more important.

Hopefully people will see they are going to get a $600 check from the stimulus package and decide they can afford an iPhone after all.

I second that now may be the time to buy aapl, if the market does not continue to slide.

Pandaboots
Jan 25, 2008, 10:30 PM
Basically people are idiots. It's common knowledge that Apple holds the market share on mp3 players by a huge margin. It will take years (if ever) for Apple to lose that position. However, iPod sales should slow as the market becomes saturated. Everyone now has an iPod, except for the handful of Zune owners and off-brand owners who are just plain too cheap or too dumb to buy the real McCoy. At any rate, Apple now has the challenge to maintain their market share and they will do so through innovation and continually improving their product to get all of us to keep upgrading to the latest and greatest iPod.

I think investors and analysts alike need to now focus their attention more on the iPhone, movie rentals/:apple:TV and the Macs as this is where Apple still has a lot of room to grow. Apple has a real chance to reproduce the iPod through their :apple:TV and I believe that if/when their movie rental/purchase division does take off, it will be more lucrative than their music division. Apple also gained a 20% market share on the smart phone industry in their first 90 days with the iPhone. I feel that when iPhone take 2 is released, sales of that unit will make the 1st iPhone look like child's play. The fact that the Mac consistently gains market share cannot be ignored. Apple really needs to step up here and get the excitement back into their computers, much like they have done with the iPod/iPhone/iTunes.

Just remember how terrible the 1st generation iPods were compared to the current models and how far it has come. Apple has the opportunity again to do this with iPhone/:apple:TV/Macs --> yes with the Mac too...they need to innovate again with their computers. Not take a computer and make it thinner and lighter with less features, but really innovate here. Create a paradigm shift in how the world uses and thinks about computers, much like they did with music. Unless you think that Jobs and his crew are done and they have nothing left to give then I say buy Apple. Apple has been in existence for 32 years now and is at the top of their game. They have great momentum, a ton of cash lying around and a great management/marketing/engineering team still in place. Hell, I'm kinda glad that Apple's stock is getting negative press lately. With any success always comes the pessimism of "when" will they fall. You know as well as I do, that when Apple shocks us all again with their innovation, everyone's gonna jump back on board and will probably think twice before leaving again.

So bottom line is this: When Apple starts showing that they are losing market share in all their divisions, start racking up debt and start giving us dull and crappy products to buy (like their competition) then I'd sell and run...until then buy and hold.....What kills me the most is that all of these financial companies who basically created the mess we are in and are writing down billions in losses every quarter are enjoying nice rebounds to their stock prices. People are idiots.

eRondeau
Jan 25, 2008, 10:50 PM
The people who own AAPL stock are not like you and me. I'd be shocked if they've even heard of Macworld. They don't use or own Apple computers, they just automatically buy whatever hot stock happens to have gone up this week. When it starts going down, they sell off. Tech stocks are especially prone to this kind of short-sighted selling. It's cold in New York, investors are selling in order to go on vacation. Simiple as that.

yeroen
Jan 25, 2008, 10:53 PM
Because analysts get paid to pull their "expectations" out of their ass.

It's a pyramid scheme, the lot of it.

MikeTheC
Jan 26, 2008, 12:20 AM
Much like stupid users, stock market investors are a whole class of people for whom I have not the slightest bit of pity.

Apple's stock went down basically due to two factors. First, Apple's Stevenote and subsequent quarterly were lackluster. That's under Apple's direct control.

Second, the market was going down anyhow, so it dragged Apple's stock with it. Yet somehow Apple (or any other company) is supposed to react to this? Why? Because a bunch of fickle-minded simpletons want their money after behaving in a way which helped to contribute to lower stock prices? Yech. Give me a break.

Yes, I know the economy is in a slump. Er, downturn. Um, recession. Yeah, whatever. Call it what you will. But why companies have this fear-threat knee-jerk reaction to stock price when it has absolutely nothing to do with what they have done (which, again to be clear, is only 50% true here in Apple's case), I'll simply never know.

I, for one, didn't care for Stevenote '08. I think there should have been other things for Steve to have introduced. And they wouldn't have to be lavishly over-the-top, either. Just good, useful, and desired things. But nevertheless, it's not like I think Apple's leadership suddenly all developed alzheimers' and now *oh my God* the ship's going to run a-ground, oh save us, save us!

Load of crap, the lot of it.

cjcampbell
Jan 26, 2008, 01:11 AM
Apple has received a great deal of favorable publicity in the last year as it introduced the iPhone and increased market share in computer sales. Whenever a company gets that kind of publicity, a number of people will buy its stock simply because it was mentioned in the newspapers, without really analyzing whether the stock was actually worth that or not. This halo effect can last as long as six months to a year, but it disappears on the appearance of any bad news, in this case a market downturn.

Apple was grossly overvalued because of all the publicity, so it was the first stock to be dumped when the market turned down. Now it is probably grossly undervalued. Personally, I stay away from volatility. There are too many people who are trading stocks, as opposed to investing in companies. There is a big difference. One is looking for a quick profit on a short-term change in price; the other is looking for long-term accumulation of value.

The short-term traders often do quite well and they brag about their successes, but overall their investments do not do as well as if they had put their money in slot machines in Vegas. That is why I stay away from volatility.

Fearless Leader
Jan 26, 2008, 01:14 AM
I've lost a bit. :( actually quite a lot. I bought at around 170ish a while ago in prepare for the surge of macworld like last year but am at a bit of a loss right now. I think my avatar shows my recent mood.

CalBoy
Jan 26, 2008, 01:22 AM
The ticker is AAPL, and it's traded on Nasdaq, not NYSE.

Actually Nasdaq is an index, not a trading cite. The NYSE is an exchange (much like one we'd find in London, Tokyo, etc). What Apple is not listed under is the Dow 30 (commonly referred to only as "the Dow" or "Dow Jones Industrial Average"), which lists the 30 largest companies of the US based on industry and importance (current ones include WalMart, GE, CitiGroup, etc).

gr8tfly
Jan 26, 2008, 01:30 AM
I've lost a bit. :( actually quite a lot. I bought at around 170ish a while ago in prepare for the surge of macworld like last year but am at a bit of a loss right now. I think my avatar shows my recent mood.

I wouldn't worry. Just sit back and wait a bit. It'll be back. I have some I bought at 26 (pre-split) and some I bought around iDay (146). Not too worried, but I'm in for long haul anyway.

valdore
Jan 26, 2008, 01:36 AM
Actually Nasdaq is an index, not a trading cite. The NYSE is an exchange (much like one we'd find in London, Tokyo, etc). What Apple is not listed under is the Dow 30 (commonly referred to only as "the Dow" or "Dow Jones Industrial Average"), which lists the 30 largest companies of the US based on industry and importance (current ones include WalMart, GE, CitiGroup, etc).

Nasdaq is first and foremost an electronic stock trading medium, but also an index. You needn't elaborate on what the NYSE is, I have a bachelor's degree in finance and work in commodities.

CalBoy
Jan 26, 2008, 01:42 AM
Nasdaq is first and foremost an electronic stock trading medium, but also an index.

Never knew that. Learned something today. :)

You needn't elaborate on what the NYSE is, I have a bachelor's degree in finance and work in commodities.

No need to get huffy about it! ;) :p :D

valdore
Jan 26, 2008, 01:44 AM
No need to get huffy about it! ;) :p :D


Sorry... didn't mean to sound huffy. :cool:

CalBoy
Jan 26, 2008, 02:00 AM
Sorry... didn't mean to sound huffy. :cool:

I always wondered where "huffy" came from. :p

[/off topic]

AAPL will recover, but perhaps not soon. The markets are in a state of confusion right now (I can imagine that this week was one roller coaster for day traders! :eek:), but Apple is a solid company with solid earnings, solid growth forecasts, and a solid roadmap for the near future.

I mean, it's not as if Apple is taking on suspect mortgages...:p

swagi
Jan 26, 2008, 02:27 AM
Apple reported a great previous quarter, but thinks that the next quarter may see fewer sales due to a perceived slowdown in the US economy (even though anyone with even a gnat's knowledge of economy would know that it is not a big deal). The stock market is a bet on future performance, not past performance, therefore people who have no idea what they are doing [read: most investors] dumped the stock to make their profits. I have 50 shares at a split adjusted cost of $10, so I'm holding on to it for the long run.

TEG

You should've set a Stop Loss at 180 and now be very happy with a new buying opportunity. I actually used this fiasko for the high risk maneuver of buying base 180 Calls for Apple :cool:

John Purple
Jan 26, 2008, 03:17 AM
Apple's stock (APPL in NYSE) has plummeted $68 in the last 30 days (from $198 to $130 or 35%) does anyone know what has caused this? Curious...

-Hart

Too much focussed on consumer market ...
Bad thing in times of sub-prime crisis :(

yOyOYoo
Jan 26, 2008, 03:17 AM
you guys think Apple stock has dropped? Take a look at Google.... WOW.

Pandaboots
Jan 26, 2008, 03:29 AM
I've lost a bit. :( actually quite a lot. I bought at around 170ish a while ago in prepare for the surge of macworld like last year but am at a bit of a loss right now. I think my avatar shows my recent mood.

You haven't lost anything until you actually sell. Maybe this story will help:

Apple was the last stock I bought back during the dot com days of the late 90's/early 2000's. I got burned trying to buy and sell all the dot coms on a daily basis, so I decided that I'd "invest" what I had left in Apple. Anyway, I bought Apple at $49/share in the year 2000. I thought it was a great price for whatever reason. Guess what? The price fell to around $7 within a very short period of time. Go look at a chart and you will see the cliff in which I speak of. However, I didn't lose my cool. I was in it for the long haul, so I maintained my position. I think patience is key to investing. Long story short, I did sell at $200 recently because I wanted to diversify those earnings and made a 720% return on my investment. So essentially, my original investment more than doubled itself each year I owned the stock. Why $200? I don't know, they had been so close to it for a while that it just sounded like a good round number. Anyway, I've had my fair share of doubts throughout my 7 year stint with Apple. I never dreamed Apple would be at $200/share. I've seen huge dips in their price in short periods of time, and I've also seen huge gains too. I've also had the stock split on me too. I've also felt it was doomed and there's no way it could ever do this or ever do that....

Think about what all has happened with Apple since 2000: I've seen OS X launched, the iPod launched, iTunes launched, the switch to flat screens, all the computers they've launched, iLife, iWork, iPhone, :apple:TV, addition of movies and tv shows, etc. etc. So here's why I invested in Apple in 2000:

1) I loved the company
2) I loved their products
3) I got excited about their products
4) I was a proud customer
5) I actually kept up with what was going on with the company (mainly through appleinsider and then macrumors shortly thereafter)
6) I knew Apple was innovative and had good leadership
7) I read all of the magazines related to Apple and talked everyones ear off about Apple

However, I didn't choose Apple because of the iPod (it didn't exist then), or whether or not they expected their 2nd qtr to be better than their all time greatest qtr in history. In a nutshell I chose Apple because I believed in their products/their management team/and their ability to produce a quality product that excites people.

So, I guess what you have to ask yourself is, in the next 7 years where will Apple be as far as products and innovation? Only thing I know is since re-investing in them in December at $182, they've released :apple:TV 2, movie rentals, Macbook Air, Time Capsule, an 8 core mac pro and a pink nano (lol). I think Apple is poised and ready to dominate other markets now..pfft iPod, that's so 5 years ago, blah blah blah, Apple owns the market and will maintain their dominance, now it's time for them to dominate in the movies and the phones and hopefully in computers.

If you think they are done, then I'd be worried and sell your shares as soon as you can. If you still believe in Apple, like I do, average down your shares while you can and hold on. At these prices right now, Apple can easily double in value again. They are better positioned than ever to take on their competition. All my 7 reasons above are as true today as they were 7 years ago and 7 years prior to that. :)

Lord Sam
Jan 26, 2008, 07:25 AM
There are many reasons for this. The crowd of Apple lovers wanted more from Macworld than what they got, and the market has been terrible lately. Their second quarter revenue predictions were very conservative, and some people think they have shone the brightest they will ever, and just don't think their worth it. I disagree, but as much as I would like to be, I'm not the stock market.

sysiphus
Jan 26, 2008, 09:42 AM
You should've set a Stop Loss at 180 and now be very happy with a new buying opportunity. I actually used this fiasko for the high risk maneuver of buying base 180 Calls for Apple :cool:

Or better still, just play a squeeze right before MWSF (buy puts and calls, with the idea being that there will be enough movement in one direction to cover your loss on one of the options, while still pulling a profit on the other).

FrankM
Jan 26, 2008, 10:31 AM
Basically people are idiots. It's common knowledge that Apple holds the market share on mp3 players by a huge margin. It will take years (if ever) for Apple to lose that position. However, iPod sales should slow as the market becomes saturated. Everyone now has an iPod, except for the handful of Zune owners and off-brand owners who are just plain too cheap or too dumb to buy the real McCoy. At any rate, Apple now has the challenge to maintain their market share and they will do so through innovation and continually improving their product to get all of us to keep upgrading to the latest and greatest iPod.

I think investors and analysts alike need to now focus their attention more on the iPhone, movie rentals/:apple:TV and the Macs as this is where Apple still has a lot of room to grow. Apple has a real chance to reproduce the iPod through their :apple:TV and I believe that if/when their movie rental/purchase division does take off, it will be more lucrative than their music division. Apple also gained a 20% market share on the smart phone industry in their first 90 days with the iPhone. I feel that when iPhone take 2 is released, sales of that unit will make the 1st iPhone look like child's play. The fact that the Mac consistently gains market share cannot be ignored. Apple really needs to step up here and get the excitement back into their computers, much like they have done with the iPod/iPhone/iTunes.

Just remember how terrible the 1st generation iPods were compared to the current models and how far it has come. Apple has the opportunity again to do this with iPhone/:apple:TV/Macs --> yes with the Mac too...they need to innovate again with their computers. Not take a computer and make it thinner and lighter with less features, but really innovate here. Create a paradigm shift in how the world uses and thinks about computers, much like they did with music. Unless you think that Jobs and his crew are done and they have nothing left to give then I say buy Apple. Apple has been in existence for 32 years now and is at the top of their game. They have great momentum, a ton of cash lying around and a great management/marketing/engineering team still in place. Hell, I'm kinda glad that Apple's stock is getting negative press lately. With any success always comes the pessimism of "when" will they fall. You know as well as I do, that when Apple shocks us all again with their innovation, everyone's gonna jump back on board and will probably think twice before leaving again.

So bottom line is this: When Apple starts showing that they are losing market share in all their divisions, start racking up debt and start giving us dull and crappy products to buy (like their competition) then I'd sell and run...until then buy and hold.....What kills me the most is that all of these financial companies who basically created the mess we are in and are writing down billions in losses every quarter are enjoying nice rebounds to their stock prices. People are idiots.

Wonderful analysis! I've owned AAPL for about 10 years and follow the stock quite closely (accounting for stock splits, the purchase of my shares averages about $6). This recent drop is a bit of a throw-back to about 8 years ago when AAPL's fluctuations seemed to be caused purely by psychological factors. For reasons too complex to get into here, AAPL has been a stock that trades more in response to emotional factors than business facts.

This settled out a bit about two years ago when everyone realized that the iPod was a real product that real people were buying and the market share for Macs was increasing. None of this has changed, of course. There was a steady and warranted price appreciation to about the $160 range and then everybody went a little crazy again over the iPhone and AAPL shot up to over $200. Now, for no clear reason, there's panic in the streets and the sky is falling. It may take a year to 18 months, but this too shall pass and AAPL will be over $200 again. Buy now and HOLD!!

Tattoo
Jan 26, 2008, 01:35 PM
I always wondered where "huffy" came from. :p



http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i203/TATTOO_WOW/513nzzZLr4L_SS384_.jpg

MikeT
Jan 26, 2008, 04:06 PM
I've been an AAPL shareholder on and off since 1982. The company has NEVER been healthier or hotter than it is now. We all know about the record sales of Macs, iPods, iPhones, etc. I was at a major shopping center on weekday afternoon a few days ago, and the Apple Store was literally the only store in the mall that could have been classified as "busy" (and not just with lookers but with buyers).

But you have to distinguish AAPL the stock from Apple the company. In the long term, the two are essentially the same thing, but in the short term the two are merely related. The short-term performance of AAPL the stock is affected by turmoil in the stock market, as well as by speculators hoping to make fast money by buying or selling AAPL for near-term gains. These factors can temporarily drive the stock down (or up) for reasons that have little to do with the company's actual performance.

In the long term, though, if Apple the company does well, AAPL the stock will do well, too.

So, where is AAPL going from here? Hard to say... I'm currently "long" on AAPL, so obviously I'd like to see it go up. However, it's quite possible that it could go lower from here -- perhaps much lower (below $100 even). One of the most common valuation statistic for stocks is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. Right now, AAPL's P/E is around 30. Compared to competitors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ; p/e: 16) and Microsoft (MSFT; p/e: 21), AAPL's multiple is high. Over the last few years, AAPL's higher P/E has been justified because earnings have been growing much faster than the earnings of its competitors. And if earnings continue to grow robustly this year, the current high P/E will have been justified. However, if earnings stall, you could see the stock price fall rapidly.

IJ Reilly
Jan 26, 2008, 04:43 PM
So, where is AAPL going from here? Hard to say... I'm currently "long" on AAPL, so obviously I'd like to see it go up. However, it's quite possible that it could go lower from here -- perhaps much lower (below $100 even). One of the most common valuation statistic for stocks is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. Right now, AAPL's P/E is around 30. Compared to competitors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ; p/e: 16) and Microsoft (MSFT; p/e: 21), AAPL's multiple is high. Over the last few years, AAPL's higher P/E has been justified because earnings have been growing much faster than the earnings of its competitors. And if earnings continue to grow robustly this year, the current high P/E will have been justified. However, if earnings stall, you could see the stock price fall rapidly.

You can't tell much about where a company is going by looking at P/E, as by definition, this is a backwards-looking statistic. All of the companies you mention are growing far more slowly than Apple, which is why their trailing P/E ratios are lower. This is sort of what you said, but it's worth clarifying that you can't necessarily compare P/E ratios between companies with vastly different growth rates.

Derbus
Jan 26, 2008, 07:20 PM
These things happen, but this isnt the first time this has happened to Apple either

cjcampbell
Jan 26, 2008, 09:53 PM
I always wondered where "huffy" came from. :p

[/off topic]

AAPL will recover, but perhaps not soon. The markets are in a state of confusion right now (I can imagine that this week was one roller coaster for day traders! :eek:), but Apple is a solid company with solid earnings, solid growth forecasts, and a solid roadmap for the near future.

I mean, it's not as if Apple is taking on suspect mortgages...:p

Huffy, of course, is manufactured in China by the Russell Corporation. :)

It is true, if your Apple stock has declined, selling is probably the worst thing you can do. If you thought it was worth $169, then it is definitely worth $130 to you. Nothing has really changed since it dropped from its high.

trader889
Jan 26, 2008, 11:18 PM
You can't tell much about where a company is going by looking at P/E, as by definition, this is a backwards-looking statistic. All of the companies you mention are growing far more slowly than Apple, which is why their trailing P/E ratios are lower. This is sort of what you said, but it's worth clarifying that you can't necessarily compare P/E ratios between companies with vastly different growth rates.

True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.

I'm long Apple, so I have a bias, but here are some things to think about:

1) Market is reacting to bad numbers for the ipod, supposedly bad numbers for the iphone, recession concerns etc.. Do you think Apple is not going to come out with anything new this year that can add to the bottom line?

2) Apple is opening up more new stores worldwide. I believe their average sales at the stores is about $4000/sq foot. Their first China store is opening up in Beijing this year (think Olympics). Also, despite some of the headlines about no China iphone deal, CEO of China Mobile (370 million subscribers) stated this past weekend in Davos, Switzerland "We've not started any formal negotiations with Apple. The door is open to all for discussions about fashionable phones". This pretty reiterates what Steve Jobs said. Also, let's not forget all the other countries that have no iphone deals.

3) $18 billion in cash. Let's say that this earns 2%. Comes out to about 30,000,000 a month or .03 per share in earnings just on interest. On the conference call, I think one of the analysts said that Apple is averaging about $1 billion a quarter in cash, although last quarter was killer when they added $3 billion.

4) 45% of Apple's revenues come from overseas. This will only get larger as they open more stores overseas. Unless we get a worldwide recession, overseas sales should help cushion any US slowdown. Also, all the US analysts keep coming up with their updates based upon their "channel" checks, does this include overseas channel checks? I doubt it. So be wary of what they say.

5) Personally, I think the Macbook Air was developed with Japan in mind. In previous conference calls, CFO said Japan was one of the weaker markets. As some of you may know, Japan loves small, ultraportable computers.

Feel to comment/criticize, but as one poster said, if you think Apple is finished as a company, sell. If you think the future still looks good, don't look at the price of Apple for 3 months or as Warren Buffet says, 10 years..lol.

unvjustintime
Jan 27, 2008, 08:57 AM
The people who own AAPL stock are not like you and me. I'd be shocked if they've even heard of Macworld. They don't use or own Apple computers, they just automatically buy whatever hot stock happens to have gone up this week. When it starts going down, they sell off. Tech stocks are especially prone to this kind of short-sighted selling. It's cold in New York, investors are selling in order to go on vacation. Simiple as that.

I own 957 shares and visit this site every day.

odedia
Jan 27, 2008, 10:08 AM
Apple's stock (APPL in NYSE) has plummeted $68 in the last 30 days (from $198 to $130 or 35%) does anyone know what has caused this? Curious...

-Hart

Yes, I know why: I bought the stock.

IJ Reilly
Jan 27, 2008, 11:35 AM
True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.

Excellent comments. Long-time AAPL investors have seen these moments of despair before -- too many times before, to be honest. The markets have always treated Apple this way, unfortunately. It's difficult to imagine Apple's prospects being any brighter. The company is moving forward on all fronts. These are times when you have look down the road instead of at the potholes at your feet.

cwerdna
Jan 27, 2008, 03:19 PM
you guys think Apple stock has dropped? Take a look at Google.... WOW.
Not sure what your point is, AAPL has done a LOT worse percentage-wise in the last few weeks than GOOG.

See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GOOG&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=aapl and http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?frames=0&time=4&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=goog&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&unused=0&o_symb=aapl&startdate=&enddate=&show=true&symb=aapl&draw.x=16&draw.y=17&default=true&backurl=%2Fadvchart%2Fframes%2Fmain%2Easp&prms=qcd&sid=609.

cebritt
Jan 27, 2008, 03:31 PM
The old stock adage is, "Buy on rumor, sell on news."

CmdrLaForge
Jan 27, 2008, 04:06 PM
MacWorld, quarterly report and market in general. Expectations of MacWorld beyond reality and can't top iPhone. Quarterly report also not up to predictions.

To be correct - it wasn't so much the quarterly earnings but the outlook. There is a huge concern in the market that the US economy is not only slowing down but heading towards a regression.

What is everybodys guess ? How deep will they fall ? Below $108 ? Below $125 ? I already have some and want to buy more. Its always nice to hit the low point.

macfan881
Jan 27, 2008, 05:11 PM
once the new macbook pros come out im sure the stocks will go back up :rolleyes:

Badandy
Jan 27, 2008, 06:55 PM
The P/E was just so high. And as Reilly and others have pointed out, it should be higher than its competitors due to the ridiculous growth. But you have the whole subprime mess, possible reception, low iPod numbers, and a monster P/E, it makes sense that there was a big correction.

I think it will drop to about $95 once it's all said and done (if we go into bad financial times), and I'll just pick up a bunch more there because no matter what the market does, Apple still has rock solid financials and growth.

unvjustintime
Jan 27, 2008, 09:43 PM
The old stock adage is, "Buy on rumor, sell on news."

sell on good news, buy on bad

valdore
Jan 27, 2008, 09:46 PM
I like this investment adage:

"Buy high, sell even higher."

CalBoy
Jan 28, 2008, 12:34 AM
I like this investment adage:

"Buy high, sell even higher."

So that's what I've been doing wrong! :p

Perhaps another old adage needs to be thrown around here: diversify, diversify, diversify, diversify!

garethlewis2
Jan 28, 2008, 06:48 AM
This is a good time for Apple.

They can choose todo two things.

One. Attempt to satiate the readers of the Wall Street Journal. Sorry to brake it to you, but Walt Mosberg has more say in the running of the company, than every customer of Apple. The investers read WSJ, not MacRumors. This means milking the iPod line and iPhone lines until they have sold every variation they can. Then still make an absolute crap profit as nobody wants to buy their sellout products.

Two. When you are ********* over by the stock market as Apple have been with massively inflated expectations, you have breathing space. Nobody in the stock market is expecting you to well. The investors have been told by the market analysts that the stocks are junk so sell. Apple can now quitely invest money into new products as nobody who has any money thinks Apple is going to come back. Announce new products that people want to buy. iPhones in Europe are about as useful as canines on bovine. The result. The stock price shoots up.

I actually expect Apple to go with option One. Option Two is far too sensible.

trule
Jan 28, 2008, 10:06 AM
I've been an AAPL shareholder on and off since 1982. The company has NEVER been healthier or hotter than it is now. We all know about the record sales of Macs, iPods, iPhones, etc. I was at a major shopping center on weekday afternoon a few days ago, and the Apple Store was literally the only store in the mall that could have been classified as "busy" (and not just with lookers but with buyers).


Yes, with things so good at the moment one has to wonder where the room for improvement is? Markets are forward looking and it would seem the markets don't see much room for improvement right now.

I would agree, Apple is on a crest...and the only way is down.

IJ Reilly
Jan 28, 2008, 10:20 AM
I would agree, Apple is on a crest...and the only way is down.

This is a ridiculous assessment, based on nothing. Apple now has three growth businesses from which to build, and potentially a fourth. Hardly a company on earth would not envy Apple's potential.

lofight
Jan 28, 2008, 11:21 AM
i think it's also because the R&D growth is bigger than the actual growth of the products the R&D is working on..

AlphaBob
Jan 28, 2008, 01:03 PM
Many many reasons (which is why it has lost more than other stocks):

1) Unrealistic expectations of traders (thought results would be better)
2) iPod sales rate dropping (hard to grow when they own the market)
3) No really big MacWorld announcement this year
4) Overall sales of iPhone slowing and not spectacular during holidays
5) Sales of iPhone in Europe lower than expected
6) China told Apple to get lost (no iPhone sales to largest market)
7) iTunes may be #1 music site but Amazon hurting it. Also qtrax may kill it.
8) Netflix set to take air out of movie rentals from iTunes (free vs. rent)
9) iTunes loss of TV media as they fight with studios over revenue
10) Even though Apple's percentage of PC sales has gone up, that means
they have captured more share of a commodity market with declining
profit margins.
11) The rest of market declined anyway

When people say there is no follow-up to the iPhone this year, they are right, but missing the bigger point that there is serious concern about the iPhone anyway as it appears that many of the initial sales went to pent-up demand from Apple FanBoys. With that bucket filled, what will propel the iPhone to mass-market acceptance? Certainly not the high-price of both the phone and plans. Even at $399, iPhone must compete with highly subsidized smart phones that cost $0 to the end user, and a phone/data plan that is $15 more expensive than other carriers.

IJ Reilly
Jan 28, 2008, 01:14 PM
1) Not really. The current quarter beat expectations. The worry is about the coming quarter.
2) iPod sales are not dropping. Unit growth rate was lower.
3) MacWorld announcements really don't matter.
4) Define spectacular.
5) Lower than who expected?
6) The China market issue is unresolved.
7) iTunes is not a major profit center for Apple.
8) Possibly, but see above.
9) Possibly, but see above. And this is also old news, which did not hurt the share price when it came out.
10) Apple's margins were way up in the quarter.
11) This is true.

Bottom line: It's not always possible to rationally explain why the market does what it does on a short-term basis.

DMann
Jan 28, 2008, 02:02 PM
I've lost a bit. :( actually quite a lot. I bought at around 170ish a while ago in prepare for the surge of macworld like last year but am at a bit of a loss right now. I think my avatar shows my recent mood.

You haven't lost a cent, until you actually sell off your stocks. I'll be holding on to mine until they climb back up and beyond. Besides, having another rate cut is around the corner - this may happen sooner than you think.

Unspeaked
Jan 28, 2008, 02:13 PM
Bottom line: It's not always possible to rationally explain why the market does what it does on a short-term basis.

B-but... the informercials!

They say I can channel stocks!

;)

stormj
Jan 28, 2008, 02:25 PM
Not quite. Q1 exceeded everyone expectations financially. But it was the appearance of slowing iPod sales that scared everyone. The reason that Apple made its numbers is because Mac sales were extremely strong and covered the slowing iPod growth.

That and the very weak guidance for Q2 would scare a lot of investors who thought that Apple was a safe haven.

Hickman

The slowing iPod sales are the CW reason why the stock has gone down. But anytime you read what the reason for a market action is, you should be skeptical.

My view is that Apple's stock was simply overheated due to all of its publicity this year, and the Street was looking for a reason to cool it off, given the prevailing market conditions.

I don't think in another time the iPod numbers alone would have done that. Margins are higher on macs and mac sales are up -- and that didn't move the number up.

The market is bad, people are still shy of tech stocks in a bad market (rightly so), Apple has been on a long winning streak and people are starting to wonder. i also think there's a lot of "amateur" demand for Apple that was moving the stock up on all of their hype, without much of a look at the fundamentals. Those people aren't buying stocks right now.

But, as I said, be skeptical because what I'm saying probably is just another view that gets lost in the noise of the market movements.

trule
Jan 28, 2008, 04:01 PM
This is a ridiculous assessment, based on nothing. Apple now has three growth businesses from which to build, and potentially a fourth. Hardly a company on earth would not envy Apple's potential.

Based on the verdict of the markets it would seem that Apple's potential is not so great...but you know better than that right ;)

IJ Reilly
Jan 28, 2008, 10:06 PM
Based on the verdict of the markets it would seem that Apple's potential is not so great...but you know better than that right ;)

I know better than to make to much of the market's verdict on any given week.

Wes Jordan
Jan 28, 2008, 10:19 PM
Because it was over-vauled :rolleyes:

Wes Jordan
Jan 28, 2008, 10:21 PM
You haven't lost a cent, until you actually sell off your stocks. I'll be holding on to mine until they climb back up and beyond. Besides, having another rate cut is around the corner - this may happen sooner than you think.

Smart. So many people get caught up in the current price. Apple isn't going out of business anytime soon. Hold on to it, it will go up again. Maybe not very soon with what economists predict the economy to do over the next year, but most recessions only last ~9 months.

garethlewis2
Jan 29, 2008, 12:50 AM
Actually that is stupid. Investment Banks and Hedge Funds are the largest shareholders of Apple. They use the MTM (Mark to Market) price to determine their profit and loss portfolio of what their shares are worth. They are going to so pissed off with Apples performance they will at the shareholder meeting be asking for some ones head. So yes, technically you don't lose money until you sell, but that is a very very very, ad-infinitum, very naive view.

Badandy
Jan 29, 2008, 01:40 AM
Based on the verdict of the markets it would seem that Apple's potential is not so great...but you know better than that right ;)

When stocks are being discussed from now on, please remove yourself from the proceedings.


It was mostly the decline in iPod growth rate, but as someone said here, the market is just becoming saturated. You can thank Apple's insistence on using non user-replaceable batteries and such for sustaining some product momentum at least. You'll always have a good 10% (or so) of the market or so that replaces things ONLY when what they have ceases to work. This is where what I noted above begins to actually positively impact sales figures.

I'm just getting this weird feeling that the baseline will be about 100. I expect a mild resurgence in the next couple weeks, nowhere near 200 or anything, but at least a 10% jump. Then I look for it to tumble down, where I will hopefully pick up some more at around 100. Of course, no one should take my complete speculation as actual advice, this is just the gut feeling I'm getting from the stock right now.

ComeOnDieYoung
Jan 29, 2008, 09:55 AM
Probably because of the difficulty of selling ipods to a world where everyone who can afford/wants them already has one!

eRondeau
Jan 29, 2008, 10:14 AM
It seems everybody's had completely unreasonable expectations of Apple's performance recently. They're doing fantastically well, obviously. But I've heard people saying their stock will hit $1000 (from $130/$200), Apple will become the world's first TRILLION dollar company, etc etc etc. When your expectations are unreasonably high, you're bound to be disappointed. But remember, Apple is investing heavily in R&D and engineering, buying-up half of Cupertino. They're not doing all this to keep building the same old iPod's. Whatever top-secret projects their skunkworks are developing right now will hit the market in 2-3 years. Who knows what they're doing now, and what will happen when it finally goes on sale. :apple:

fall3n
Jan 29, 2008, 12:08 PM
Even though they had their most successful quarter, overly high expectations and a US economic recession is the reason. It's expected, the whole market is in decline.

trule
Jan 29, 2008, 04:57 PM
I know better than to make to much of the market's verdict on any given week.

long term investors, which seems to be most people commenting here, would do better to look at the market verdict in terms of years. AAPL has broken down through its 50, 100 & 200 day moving average on INCREASING volume. That is a bear signal if ever there was one.

Look back to mid 2006, AAPL broke down past its 200 day moving average HOWEVER there was no increase in volume and the stock rebounded. That is a mixed signal.

Whilst I would never buy AAPL, looking at the long term chart I would expect consolidation followed by another fall...how far I don't know. If I look at the 10 year chart on a linear scale, where the price increase of the past 7 years becomes much more dramatic, then 40 dollars looks a good bet....and there seems to be some technical support at 60 dollars.

YMMV

IJ Reilly
Jan 29, 2008, 05:01 PM
I'm not a big fan of technical analysis, since it tends to ignore everything but share price over time. In my experience technical analysts are wrong as often as they are right.

trule
Jan 29, 2008, 05:17 PM
I'm not a big fan of technical analysis, since it tends to ignore everything but share price over time. In my experience technical analysts are wrong as often as they are right.

Share price is all that matters :D

I have lost most of my money in companies where I "fell in love" with the story. Basic chart analysis, like I just did, was unfortunatly much more accurate than my emotions. I use it as a "gut check".

One of the best technical analysis charts is a P&F chart, it focuses on PRICE ACTION ONLY (no time). If you check out AAPL in a daily P&F chart it has broken down past the bull trend line (blue) and is consolidating. Its a pretty bad looking chart that was looking well overbought

AAPL PF Daily (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=AAPL,P)

However, if you take a look at the weekly P&F chart, then AAPL is crashing and it could fall to 54 before breaking its bull trend line...so it could have a long long way to fall.

APPL PF Weekly (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AAPL,PLTAWANRBO[PA][D20080129][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G)

I put a lot of weight on a weekly P&F chart as it focuses on one thing only, long term price action...in the end thats all that matters, price.


Honestly, I would sell if I owned it, and buy back in later. And I pushed my way through 2 full Apple Stores in the past week, most people wanted help with new computers or were, like me, just looking and finding it hard to come up with a reason to buy another iPod. The cash register desk was quiet.

IJ Reilly
Jan 29, 2008, 05:35 PM
Share price is all that matters :D

Well, yes and no. If I'd have paid attention to the technical analysts on AAPL I either (1) would not have bought in, or (2) have sold years ago. In over ten years of holding AAPL it would never have been the right move to sell, though I'm sure the chart gurus would have told me it was, many times.

Chartists come to absurd conclusions, such as AAPL having support at 60. This means a trailing P/E based on current earnings (without growth) of around 15. At 40, we're talking a P/E of ten. This assumes that AAPL's growth days are over, as of now. Does anything we know about the company, including its historical growth and product offerings comport with the idea of Apple turning into Dow Chemical? I don't think so.

So yes and no. Share price matters, but charts can't tell the entire story.

tringo
Jan 29, 2008, 05:44 PM
Share price is all that matters :D

I have lost most of my money in companies where I "fell in love" with the story. Basic chart analysis, like I just did, was unfortunatly much more accurate than my emotions. I use it as a "gut check".

One of the best technical analysis charts is a P&F chart, it focuses on PRICE ACTION ONLY (no time). If you check out AAPL in a daily P&F chart it has broken down past the bull trend line (blue) and is consolidating. Its a pretty bad looking chart that was looking well overbought

AAPL PF Daily (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=AAPL,P)

However, if you take a look at the weekly P&F chart, then AAPL is crashing and it could fall to 54 before breaking its bull trend line...so it could have a long long way to fall.

APPL PF Weekly (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AAPL,PLTAWANRBO[PA][D20080129][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G)

I put a lot of weight on a weekly P&F chart as it focuses on one thing only, long term price action...in the end thats all that matters, price.


Honestly, I would sell if I owned it, and buy back in later. And I pushed my way through 2 full Apple Stores in the past week, most people wanted help with new computers or were, like me, just looking and finding it hard to come up with a reason to buy another iPod. The cash register desk was quiet.

Good point there man, I cashed in a few weeks ago at $199 (I know I'm a lucky SOB) But I did so because of the divergence on the MACD chart.

Technical analysts saw this crash from a MILE away.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t91343527267&r=4707

wmk461
Jan 29, 2008, 11:36 PM
Apple has great products, but we are going to be experiencing more than a recession. Donald Trump stated that what was going to happen in North America is going to make Russia look like a picnic during world war 2. The CEO of Wall-Street stated two years ago that there will be a world economic crash worse than what happened during the 1930's due to the amount of debt. The European Union Banks stated 1.5 years ago that they were preparing their banks for a world economic collapse. Unfortunately most of us are living the status quo and do not want to acknowledge that our way of life is going to drastically change. Unfortunately even a company as great as Apple will not be able to retain the level of what the stocks are worth even at todays low. My advice is pay of your debts... sell your stocks while you still have money, sell your home and then when the collapse occurs then invest.

stevegmu
Jan 29, 2008, 11:59 PM
Apple has great products, but we are going to be experiencing more than a recession. Donald Trump stated that what was going to happen in North America is going to make Russia look like a picnic during world war 2. The CEO of Wall-Street stated two years ago that there will be a world economic crash worse than what happened during the 1930's due to the amount of debt. The European Union Banks stated 1.5 years ago that they were preparing their banks for a world economic collapse. Unfortunately most of us are living the status quo and do not want to acknowledge that our way of life is going to drastically change. Unfortunately even a company as great as Apple will not be able to retain the level of what the stocks are worth even at todays low. My advice is pay of your debts... sell your stocks while you still have money, sell your home and then when the collapse occurs then invest.

LOL! The market has stabilized, and the worst of the credit 'crisis' is over. The only recession concerns the housing market- which was inflated due to speculation.
Maybe a little less NPR would do you some good...

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 12:13 AM
LOL! The market has stabilized, and the worst of the credit 'crisis' is over. The only recession concerns the housing market- which was inflated due to speculation.
Maybe a little less NPR would do you some good...

LOL... my friend, lets look at this logically. The United States debt surpasses every combined nations of Earth. Our currency is no longer backed by gold, 100% of our income tax pays the interest on our national debt. We transfered our producing companies to other countries. Most people have taken out equity loans on their homes and have maxed out their credit. The middle class will be no more and there is no getting out of our predicament. We are simply not producing enough money to ever get out of debt and with inflation out of control and devaluation of our currency a collapse will happen. In 1929 the good to debt ratio before the collapse was 1:16 as of 2006 it was sitting at 1:60. I have nothing to prove other than I'd cash out now and invest when this happens.

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 12:28 AM
LOL... my friend, lets look at this logically. The United States debt surpasses every combined nations of Earth. Our currency is no longer backed by gold, 100% of our income tax pays the interest on our national debt. We transfered our producing companies to other countries. Most people have taken out equity loans on their homes and have maxed out their credit. The middle class will be no more and there is no getting out of our predicament. We are simply not producing enough money to ever get out of debt and with inflation out of control and devaluation of our currency a collapse will happen. In 1929 the good to debt ratio before the collapse was 1:16 as of 2006 it was sitting at 1:60. I have nothing to prove other than I'd cash out now and invest when this happens.

The National debt is meaningless. It is actually going down yearly in relation to GDP.
Do you even have any idea when the last time the US was on the Gold Standard? Can you name any other country whose currency is backed by gold?
If 100% of our income tax pays off the interest on the Debt, how then does the government operate?
Now you are just getting silly. Most people have taken out equity loans and maxed out their credit? Please.
America is still a manufacturing giant. Our exports to China were up 21% last quarter. We are still known for high quality, precision manufacturing few countries can match- with the exception of Germany.
There are more middle class Americans today than in any other point in history.
Why do you think a weak dollar is bad? Sure, there may be some inflation, however, a weak dollar is good for exports and tourism. Take a look at Boeing vs. Airbus, as it relates to the devaluation of the dollar. There's a reason China artificially keeps their currency devalued.
Somehow, I doubt you have a dime invested in the market...

IJ Reilly
Jan 30, 2008, 12:31 AM
Fear and greed, as always the two opposing driving forces behind the markets. Both are emotions and neither are rational. Just something to consider whenever you are tempted to say that the sky is either the limit, or it's falling. Chances are, neither is true.

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 02:02 AM
[QUOTE=stevegmu;4858043]
"Do you even have any idea when the last time the US was on the Gold Standard?"

1971 Nixon stated that gold could no longer be traded in for currency. It was the last step which ended the real value of money. Money is NOT, backed by gold, or any other precious metal but is instead, backed by faith. The money is, in other words, as good as people believe it is good.

"If 100% of our income tax pays off the interest on the Debt, how then does the government operate?"

The government operates through property taxes, state taxes, education tax, toll booths -which are owned by foreign countries - this supports our infrastructure. The federal government uses 100% of our tax to pay interest to banks on money which is loaned... hence our astronomical debt. Most people believe that the Federal Reserve is owned and operated by the Government. In actuality European Banks own the federal reserve thanks to Roosevelt and any money that is printed is not controlled by the American Government. We borrow money to fund our wars, run our military, pay our politicians and then we the tax our citizens to pay the interest on the borrowed money. JFK tried to abolish the Federal Reserve and failed and now Ron Paul is calling for the same action.

"Most people have taken out equity loans and maxed out their credit? Please."
Take a look what is happening in Nevada and Detroit... A lot of people cannot afford the American lifestyle and the average middle class American would be living on the streets in 3-6 months of loosing their jobs as most barely have enough in their banks saved to live off of.

"America is still a manufacturing giant. Our exports to China were up 21% last quarter."

Ironically just like apple most companies have their products made in China, India, or Mexico and then import them/assemble and then export the goods. The united States does not have natural resource assets such as Canada and as our dollar decreases in value the further in the whole we get with our national debt.... which by the way surpasses the entire combined debt of every other country in the world.

"There are more middle class Americans today than in any other point in history."

Middle Class with little to no savings and astronomical debt. In 1961 the average cost of a house was 18,000 while the average middle class income was 12,000. The average new vehicle cost 2,000. About two years the average price of a new home was 275,000 and the average price of a new vehicle was 24,000 while the average income was around 32,000. Yes these averages are subjective, but it gives you an idea of where we are when we lost gold as a standard.... currency then becomes controlled by banks through interest which results in inflation.


"Why do you think a weak dollar is bad?" Sure, there may be some inflation, however, a weak dollar is good for exports and tourism. Take a look at Boeing vs. Airbus, as it relates to the devaluation of the dollar. There's a reason China artificially keeps their currency devalued."

A weak dollar is bad because other countries realize the amount of debt we have. Our President spent more money in the first half of his term than all presidents combined. This money was borrowed and we the tax payers are now accountable for it. Countries around the world are loosing faith in our dollar. Opec was greeted with several countries a few weeks ago demanding that oil stop being traded in US dollars. We are lucky that Saudia Arabia refused as this would have caused huge economic instability. Take a look at what happened to the Germans in WWW II when they over extended themselves... a loaf of bread was payed for with a wheel barrow full of coins. I am not preaching fear... it is simple common sense for the educated and the aware. The wise will be able to get rich when our market collapses others will be in line at the soup kitchen.

"Somehow, I doubt you have a dime invested in the market..."
I do not need to share my personal portfolio with you but you are right. I took all of my money out of stocks in November as I knew what was coming and what is to come. I am not going argue my point of view any further. Open your eyes to the world and wake up - do some research beyond Fox News!

trule
Jan 30, 2008, 02:18 AM
Chartists come to absurd conclusions, such as AAPL having support at 60. This means a trailing P/E based on current earnings (without growth) of around 15. At 40, we're talking a P/E of ten. This assumes that AAPL's growth days are over, as of now. Does anything we know about the company, including its historical growth and product offerings comport with the idea of Apple turning into Dow Chemical? I don't think so.


PE's historically range between 7(bear lows) and 18 (bull highs) so 10 would be about the point where the weekly P&F chart (54) turns bearish.

However you must consider that AAPL is 100% discretionary consumer spending so when recession hits consumers will cut back in favour of things like food and oil. Want another negative, here is one, 18 billion in cash...held in a fast depreciating currency (lost half its value over the past 6 years). Or how about this, DRM free music, sure to result in more file sharing and less iTunes sales. And on the topic of iTunes, another negative, all that new competition...one of them is sure to break the AAPL hold on that market.

That weekly P&F chart is the worst I have seen in the past 5 years :eek:

thesdx
Jan 30, 2008, 06:03 AM
Good time to buy. $$ :D

I bought some Apple stock a few days ago. :D

lofight
Jan 30, 2008, 07:08 AM
I bought some Apple stock a few days ago. :D

:p hopefully it will go up..

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 08:17 AM
I'm betting the tax rebate checks will bump Apple sales...

iStefmac
Jan 30, 2008, 09:08 AM
One word. Macworld.

I sold half of my shares in the company the day before Macworld at an astounding price. I personally feel for whoever the buyer was, as they paid well over what my shares were worth that day (wrongly anticipating a spike after Macworld). I, however, have had a close eye on the rumors and Apple's business model as of late. I anticipated several elements that came to frutition, and now still having half of my Apple stock, I about broke even. Until Apple soars high again :). First really insightful stock market decision I've ever made.


Buy now :-) Thats my $0.02

iStefmac
Jan 30, 2008, 09:10 AM
I'm betting the tax rebate checks will bump Apple sales...

People with extra cash + unusually low priced popular stock. I believe your betting correctly ;)

I say, buy now. Because by April, Apple will have rolled out several new products and generated lots of buzz once again. This low price will waiver a bit and won't last through February.

Cloudane
Jan 30, 2008, 09:30 AM
How does one buy stock anyway? (from the UK)

I have absolutely no idea on the subject, is it just a matter of buying a share at a couple of hundred dollars, watching Apple go through one of its "win" moments then selling it for a little profit ($50 or whatever) just as a starter? What about tax?

lofight
Jan 30, 2008, 09:32 AM
How does one buy stock anyway? (from the UK)

I have absolutely no idea on the subject, is it just a matter of buying a share at a couple of hundred dollars, watching Apple go through one of its "win" moments then selling it for a little profit ($50 or whatever) just as a starter? What about tax?

You can do this via your bank our internet, but i'm also a noob in this..

mr.666
Jan 30, 2008, 09:38 AM
[QUOTE=stevegmu;4858043]
"Do you even have any idea when the last time the US was on the Gold Standard?"

1971 Nixon stated that gold could no longer be traded in for currency. It was the last step which ended the real value of money. Money is NOT, backed by gold, or any other precious metal but is instead, backed by faith. The money is, in other words, as good as people believe it is good.

"If 100% of our income tax pays off the interest on the Debt, how then does the government operate?"

The government operates through property taxes, state taxes, education tax, toll booths -which are owned by foreign countries - this supports our infrastructure. The federal government uses 100% of our tax to pay interest to banks on money which is loaned... hence our astronomical debt. Most people believe that the Federal Reserve is owned and operated by the Government. In actuality European Banks own the federal reserve thanks to Roosevelt and any money that is printed is not controlled by the American Government. We borrow money to fund our wars, run our military, pay our politicians and then we the tax our citizens to pay the interest on the borrowed money. JFK tried to abolish the Federal Reserve and failed and now Ron Paul is calling for the same action.

"Most people have taken out equity loans and maxed out their credit? Please."
Take a look what is happening in Nevada and Detroit... A lot of people cannot afford the American lifestyle and the average middle class American would be living on the streets in 3-6 months of loosing their jobs as most barely have enough in their banks saved to live off of.

"America is still a manufacturing giant. Our exports to China were up 21% last quarter."

Ironically just like apple most companies have their products made in China, India, or Mexico and then import them/assemble and then export the goods. The united States does not have natural resource assets such as Canada and as our dollar decreases in value the further in the whole we get with our national debt.... which by the way surpasses the entire combined debt of every other country in the world.

"There are more middle class Americans today than in any other point in history."

Middle Class with little to no savings and astronomical debt. In 1961 the average cost of a house was 18,000 while the average middle class income was 12,000. The average new vehicle cost 2,000. About two years the average price of a new home was 275,000 and the average price of a new vehicle was 24,000 while the average income was around 32,000. Yes these averages are subjective, but it gives you an idea of where we are when we lost gold as a standard.... currency then becomes controlled by banks through interest which results in inflation.


"Why do you think a weak dollar is bad?" Sure, there may be some inflation, however, a weak dollar is good for exports and tourism. Take a look at Boeing vs. Airbus, as it relates to the devaluation of the dollar. There's a reason China artificially keeps their currency devalued."

A weak dollar is bad because other countries realize the amount of debt we have. Our President spent more money in the first half of his term than all presidents combined. This money was borrowed and we the tax payers are now accountable for it. Countries around the world are loosing faith in our dollar. Opec was greeted with several countries a few weeks ago demanding that oil stop being traded in US dollars. We are lucky that Saudia Arabia refused as this would have caused huge economic instability. Take a look at what happened to the Germans in WWW II when they over extended themselves... a loaf of bread was payed for with a wheel barrow full of coins. I am not preaching fear... it is simple common sense for the educated and the aware. The wise will be able to get rich when our market collapses others will be in line at the soup kitchen.

"Somehow, I doubt you have a dime invested in the market..."
I do not need to share my personal portfolio with you but you are right. I took all of my money out of stocks in November as I knew what was coming and what is to come. I am not going argue my point of view any further. Open your eyes to the world and wake up - do some research beyond Fox News!

WELL SAID WMK!!! - I most agree with the fact that the RETARID amount of money bush has spent has caused the decline in faith of the dollar!
I'd also like to add that Apple is by no means the biggest loser in this current stock slide and will come back. google lost $200 a share! so, they'll all come back it's all about confidence in the US not what was released at MW.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 10:02 AM
LOL... my friend, lets look at this logically....

100% of our income tax pays the interest on our national debt.




This is absurdly false. In 2006, the debt service was approximately $400 billion. In that year personal income taxes amounted to $1044 billion dollars. Corporate taxes amounted to $354 billion dollars, and other taxes (which includes social security) amounted to $1009 billion dollars. The total tax receipts by the Federal government was over $2.3 TRILLION dollars.

The assets OWNED by the United States (it's citizens and the government), excluding those owned by foreign investors, were $62.5 trillion dollars in 2005.

So the total national debt is less than 4% of the net worth of the cournty.

PS: For what it is worth, a measure of a healthy business is a debt to worth ration of 2 to 1. In other words, if the US were a business, it would be doing uncommonly well. Apple would be doing even better!

ZooCrewMan
Jan 30, 2008, 10:32 AM
Apple's stock (APPL in NYSE) has plummeted $68 in the last 30 days (from $198 to $130 or 35%) does anyone know what has caused this? Curious...

-Hart

Simple, it was overpriced.

IJ Reilly
Jan 30, 2008, 10:43 AM
PE's historically range between 7(bear lows) and 18 (bull highs) so 10 would be about the point where the weekly P&F chart (54) turns bearish.

However you must consider that AAPL is 100% discretionary consumer spending so when recession hits consumers will cut back in favour of things like food and oil. Want another negative, here is one, 18 billion in cash...held in a fast depreciating currency (lost half its value over the past 6 years). Or how about this, DRM free music, sure to result in more file sharing and less iTunes sales. And on the topic of iTunes, another negative, all that new competition...one of them is sure to break the AAPL hold on that market.

That weekly P&F chart is the worst I have seen in the past 5 years :eek:

You are using generalizations about P/E for the entire stock market and applying it to one company. This is chart-driven nonsense -- it's like looking at the forest and believing you can describe every tree. Divining the future using charts isn't as easy and foolproof as you suggest.

As for the cash being held in dollars -- this of course has absolutely no impact on Apple's value as a US corporation. In fact if Apple holds some of its cash in other currencies, which they almost certainly do, this would only increase the value of their cash holdings in dollars if the dollar depreciated. We should also know that the depreciated dollar helps exporters like Apple tremendously.

trule
Jan 30, 2008, 11:03 AM
We should also know that the depreciated dollar helps exporters like Apple tremendously.

sigh...Apple exports from China and imports to America. Just another reason not to buy AAPL.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 11:39 AM
sigh...Apple exports from China and imports to America. Just another reason not to buy AAPL.

Let's see...this was a discussion about stock prices, so I'll assume this is a discussion about creating value to share holders...

The issue isn't where something is made, it is where the profit is captured. China profits very little from producing the iPods for Apple. Frankly that is why ALL major US corporations produce product elsewhere. It improves their bottom line, which benefits the stock holders.

By being profitable, Apple ensure it has money to spend on R&D and new product development, all of which create US jobs.

And on a practical side, the last time I checked there were no credible supplies of MP3 players manufactured in the USA. In fact, a good deal of the music is from "foreign" bands. So I suppose we should all give up our MP3 players and music, because it would be good for the country, eh?

Bottom line, Apple's manufacturing/sourcing strategy is a positive reason to invest in it.

IJ Reilly
Jan 30, 2008, 12:25 PM
sigh...Apple exports from China and imports to America. Just another reason not to buy AAPL.

Is this remark supposed to be taken seriously? I have no idea what you are driving at here.

julianbc
Jan 30, 2008, 01:00 PM
[QUOTE=wmk461;4858295]

WELL SAID WMK!!! - I most agree with the fact that the RETARID amount of money bush has spent has caused the decline in faith of the dollar!
I'd also like to add that Apple is by no means the biggest loser in this current stock slide and will come back. google lost $200 a share! so, they'll all come back it's all about confidence in the US not what was released at MW.

Actually... they almost are. Your GOOG comparison is a bit off. If you look at the highs and lows in the last three months of both goog and aapl, you will notice that AAPL dropped ~35% from its high of 200 and GOOG dropped ~27% from its high of 741. VMW took a huge hit yesterday, but it was ~33% and its already climbing back up today.

For the record, I am long AAPL, but I'd have to say it has been one of biggest, if not the biggest, large cap tech loser. But I'm gonna hold on.

julianbc
Jan 30, 2008, 01:01 PM
Open your eyes to the world and wake up - do some research beyond Fox News!

Save your liberal banter, chicken little.

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 01:51 PM
[QUOTE=wmk461;4858295]

WELL SAID WMK!!! - I most agree with the fact that the RETARID amount of money bush has spent has caused the decline in faith of the dollar!
I'd also like to add that Apple is by no means the biggest loser in this current stock slide and will come back. google lost $200 a share! so, they'll all come back it's all about confidence in the US not what was released at MW.

Actually, the US Dollar is declining due to the Fed interest rate cuts.
Congress controls spending, not the President.
More to do with paranoid, small-time, inexperienced investors, than anything else.

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 01:57 PM
How does one buy stock anyway? (from the UK)

I have absolutely no idea on the subject, is it just a matter of buying a share at a couple of hundred dollars, watching Apple go through one of its "win" moments then selling it for a little profit ($50 or whatever) just as a starter? What about tax?

You can trade online from an e-commerce firm, such as this one--

http://www.iii.co.uk/about/

IJ Reilly
Jan 30, 2008, 02:00 PM
Actually, the US Dollar is declining due to the Fed interest rate cuts.
Congress controls spending, not the President.
More to do with paranoid, small-time, inexperienced investors, than anything else.

Now here's some interesting theories. The dollar started its decline long before the Fed began lowering interest rates. In fact it has stabilized and gained back some since. Actually, the president submits budgets to Congress. Finally, when the market swings wildly as it has recently, look to the behavior of large institutional investors. They are the controllers of large blocks of shares. What they decide moves markets, not small-time investors. They're just along for the ride, for the most part.

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 02:07 PM
Now here's some interesting theories. The dollar started its decline long before the Fed began lowering interest rates. In fact it has stabilized and gained back some since. Actually, the president submits budgets to Congress. Finally, when the market swings wildly as it has recently, look to the behavior of large institutional investors. They are the controllers of large blocks of shares. What they decide moves markets, not small-time investors. They're just along for the ride, for the most part.

The Dollar's largest losses have come as a result of the previous 3 rate cuts.
The budget the President submits, and what Congress approves, are not the same, after pork-barrel spending is added in.
I'm not quite sure you have a grasp of the markets...

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 02:08 PM
Save your liberal banter, chicken little.

Liberal banter = common sense and simple logic for the intelligent.... Too many people are so caught up in their lives that they forget the trauma of the past. History repeats itself and the market is like a roller coaster... remember the 1980's? Or even worse the 1930's.... Tech Stock is not going to hold. I am betting on Gold to hit at least 1500.00 in the next coming months and then upwards to the 2000.00 range.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 03:05 PM
Liberal banter = common sense and simple logic for the intelligent.... I am betting on Gold to hit at least 1500.00 in the next coming months and then upwards to the 2000.00 range.

I had an engineering friend that did exactly that in the early 1980s. He sold his house and all of his investments, and purchased gold. At the time it was trading right around $900/oz. Needless to say his expectation of the demise of the US Economy and upswing in gold value didn't pan out in the long term.

I saw him at a party over the holidays this past year and asked if he was excited to finally be near the break-even point again. He was not amused.

Gold goes up because of investor fears about market uncertainty and global uncertainty (and the bulk of global uncertainty is driven by US geopolitical actions). When the predicted global calamity doesn't happen, the price of gold declines again. Since we have been fortunate enough to be unable to test what happens after a global calamity, we can't be certain what will happen to the price of gold then. My guess is it will be worth slightly more than paper, and less than a loaf of bread.

fly75
Jan 30, 2008, 03:05 PM
Liberal banter = common sense and simple logic for the intelligent.... Too many people are so caught up in their lives that they forget the trauma of the past. History repeats itself and the market is like a roller coaster... remember the 1980's? Or even worse the 1930's.... Tech Stock is not going to hold. I am betting on Gold to hit at least 1500.00 in the next coming months and then upwards to the 2000.00 range.

I remember the Hunt brothers being pretty bullish on silver in the 80's.

Only cost them a few billion:eek:

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 04:09 PM
I had an engineering friend that did exactly that in the early 1980s. He sold his house and all of his investments, and purchased gold. At the time it was trading right around $900/oz. Needless to say his expectation of the demise of the US Economy and upswing in gold value didn't pan out in the long term.

I saw him at a party over the holidays this past year and asked if he was excited to finally be near the break-even point again. He was not amused.

Gold goes up because of investor fears about market uncertainty and global uncertainty (and the bulk of global uncertainty is driven by US geopolitical actions). When the predicted global calamity doesn't happen, the price of gold declines again. Since we have been fortunate enough to be unable to test what happens after a global calamity, we can't be certain what will happen to the price of gold then. My guess is it will be worth slightly more than paper, and less than a loaf of bread.

I understand what you are saying and it makes sense, and I am gambling my extra money on geopolitical actions. In the 1980's gold was selling for nearly 3000.00 of today dollars. Switzerland is reporting a shortage of gold and Russia has announced that they will be backing up their currency with gold. Bottom line is I don't mind taking a chance on my research, especially with the tensions in the middle east.

IJ Reilly
Jan 30, 2008, 04:22 PM
The Dollar's largest losses have come as a result of the previous 3 rate cuts.

Nope. You might want to have another look at the evidence:

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart6:symbol=eurusd=x;range=2y;indicator=split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=o n;source=undefined

You can easily see that the euro has been steadily gaining strength against the dollar for at least two years.

The budget the President submits, and what Congress approves, are not the same, after pork-barrel spending is added in.

Not really. Congress has to pass a budget that the president will sign.

I'm not quite sure you have a grasp of the markets...

Uh, right...

trule
Jan 30, 2008, 04:30 PM
Gold goes up because of investor fears about market uncertainty and global uncertainty (and the bulk of global uncertainty is driven by US geopolitical actions).

Gold is special in that it is no ones liability. Why is that special, well "you" can borrow too much and go bankrupt, and if the bank you borrow from has too many bad loans it can go bankrupt, and then the bonds they issued become worthless, and even governments who debase their currency can go bankrupt. But gold is always gold, it cannot go bankrupt.

So when all of the above is happening right now, and it is, some people look at their paper money (cash, stock & bonds) and start to worry that all of it could go bankrupt...so they look for a little insurance in Gold, just incase the worse happens then they still have something of real value.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 04:57 PM
...some people look at their paper money (cash, stock & bonds) and start to worry that all of it could go bankrupt...so they look for a little insurance in Gold, just incase the worse happens then they still have something of real value.

I understand the theory of what you say, that gold has intrinsic value. However, the theory has never been tested in a true crisis. Trust me, if everything went bankrupt (stocks, bonds, t-bills, banks, etc.), then gold will be of little value as well. The ONLY thing of true value under those circumstances will be food and those things that can be used to barter for food (gold would have some value in that case, but so would a box of ammunition) The fact that someone paid $1000 or $2000 an ounce for gold before a crisis will mean nothing. It will be worth only as much as someone is capable of paying, and that will be very little.

The last run-up in the price of gold in the 80s was met with a rapid drop less than two years later to the $350 range, which is where gold sat for almost twenty years. While I have no idea how much more it will increase in value over the short term, the problem is that when the fall comes it will be quite rapid.

The biggest difference I see between gold and stocks is that one is based on negative gloom/doom thinking, and the other is based on positive/growth thinking. I have little to no interest in investing in gloom/doom, and history is the reason why. Periods of negative thinking tend to be short-lived.

trule
Jan 30, 2008, 05:09 PM
I understand the theory of what you say, that gold has intrinsic value. However, the theory has never been tested in a true crisis. Trust me, if everything went bankrupt (stocks, bonds, t-bills, banks, etc.), then gold will be of little value as well. The ONLY thing of true value under those circumstances will be food and those things that can be used to barter for food (gold would have some value in that case, but so would a box of ammunition) The fact that someone paid $1000 or $2000 an ounce for gold before a crisis will mean nothing. It will be worth only as much as someone is capable of paying, and that will be very little.

The last run-up in the price of gold in the 80s was met with a rapid drop less than two years later to the $350 range, which is where gold sat for almost twenty years. While I have no idea how much more it will increase in value over the short term, the problem is that when the fall comes it will be quite rapid.

The biggest difference I see between gold and stocks is that one is based on negative gloom/doom thinking, and the other is based on positive/growth thinking. I have little to no interest in investing in gloom/doom, and history is the reason why. Periods of negative thinking tend to be short-lived.

I can only suggest you look at the history of other nations, it happens quite often that complete economic systems collapse. Try Mexico, Argentina, Germany or any war torn nation. In these nations those with gold maintained their wealth, those without had to start from scratch.

Its insurance, just in case...for example when all the things I listed happen at once like they are in the USA right now.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 05:12 PM
I am gambling my extra money on geopolitical actions. Bottom line is I don't mind taking a chance on my research, especially with the tensions in the middle east.

Time will tell of course. But if you think about it, the run-up in the price of gold has been post 9/11 and due to tension in the middle east. For more than six plus years the theory is that the world is coming to an end. Rightly or wrongly that theory is tightly bound to the current sitting president. When George Bush is no longer in office, things may well be different. The middle east may cool off. Betting on tension to continue seems a long bet to me.

Russia is talking of backing their currency with gold because they have been in economic crisis. They see that as a last ditch effort to short up a failing system. If you see the EU or the United States do the same, then I'd be worried.


But back to the original topic about why Apple stock is dropping. I'll say it is a gift to those that don't own the stock -- a chance to buy it for less than $200 a share! :)

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 05:14 PM
The biggest difference I see between gold and stocks is that one is based on negative gloom/doom thinking, and the other is based on positive/growth thinking. I have little to no interest in investing in gloom/doom, and history is the reason why. Periods of negative thinking tend to be short-lived.

You are right about this, but we have also never lived in a generation of such drastic debt and our markets are not sustainable at this level of debt and the interest which is owed on it... So I do not see it as doom and gloom but prefer to see the realism behind it. We are really in uncharted territories in modern time but in comparison to the Roman Empire we are over extended just like they were. Our military occupies over 200 countries, we are fighting in two wars with the possibility of a third and it all will cost us trillions. The reality of it is that other countries are not putting themselves at economic risk for the safety of the world like we are. In then end it is the American people who are being effected by this.

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 05:16 PM
I can only suggest you look at the history of other nations, it happens quite often that complete economic systems collapse. Try Mexico, Argentina, Germany or any war torn nation. In these nations those with gold maintained their wealth, those without had to start from scratch.

Its insurance, just in case...for example when all the things I listed happen at once like they are in the USA right now.

Well said!:)

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 05:23 PM
\. Our military occupies over 200 countries, .

*Twilight Zone music playing...*

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 05:27 PM
*Twilight Zone music playing...*

Let me correct myself... I didn't mean to say occupy, I meant that we have troops in US bases in over 200 countries.

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 05:31 PM
I can only suggest you look at the history of other nations, it happens quite often that complete economic systems collapse. Try Mexico, Argentina, Germany or any war torn nation. In these nations those with gold maintained their wealth, those without had to start from scratch.

None of those examples had any impact on the larger global community and had no long-term impact on the price of gold.

Thinking that gold is some sort of hedge against a collapse of the US economy is ignoring the larger reality. When the US catches an economic cold (like we have now), the rest of the globe catches the flu. Just read the statements made by all the European leaders who tried to explain why their stock markets were down so much this month. They blamed it on the US housing market. Where will you go to sell your gold? The answer is nobody will be buying because the global economy will be devastated.

But the bottom line is whatever gives you comfort in uncertain times has a value in itself. If spending your money buying gold gives you peace of mind, then it might be worth it. As you say, when the eventual collapse in the price of gold happens, at least it will have some value ($350 an ounce), which is more than you can say for Enron.

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 05:36 PM
Let me correct myself... I didn't mean to say occupy, I meant that we have troops in US bases in over 200 countries.

Interesting, considering there are only 194 recognized countries on Earth. Which planet are the other 6 countries located on?

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 05:39 PM
Interesting, considering there are only 194 recognized countries on Earth. Which planet are the other 6 countries located on?

Well after looking it up several reports state that about 130 countries have US occupied bases that are active... The point is we are overextended.

"It's not easy to assess the size or exact value of our empire of bases. Official records on these subjects are misleading, although instructive. According to the Defense Department's annual "Base Structure Report" for fiscal year 2003, which itemizes foreign and domestic U.S. military real estate, the Pentagon currently owns or rents 702 overseas bases in about 130 countries and HAS another 6,000 bases in the United States and its territories. Pentagon bureaucrats calculate that it would require at least $113.2 billion to replace just the foreign bases -- surely far too low a figure but still larger than the gross domestic product of most countries -- and an estimated $591,519.8 million to replace all of them. The military high command deploys to our overseas bases some 253,288 uniformed personnel, plus an equal number of dependents and Department of Defense civilian officials, and employs an additional 44,446 locally hired foreigners. The Pentagon claims that these bases contain 44,870 barracks, hangars, hospitals, and other buildings, which it owns, and that it leases 4,844 more.

These numbers, although staggeringly large, do not begin to cover all the actual bases we occupy globally. The 2003 Base Status Report fails to mention, for instance, any garrisons in Kosovo -- even though it is the site of the huge Camp Bondsteel, built in 1999 and maintained ever since by Kellogg, Brown & Root. The Report similarly omits bases in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Qatar, and Uzbekistan, although the U.S. military has established colossal base structures throughout the so-called arc of instability in the two-and-a-half years since 9/11.

For Okinawa, the southernmost island of Japan, which has been an American military colony for the past 58 years, the report deceptively lists only one Marine base, Camp Butler, when in fact Okinawa "hosts" ten Marine Corps bases, including Marine Corps Air Station Futenma occupying 1,186 acres in the center of that modest-sized island's second largest city. (Manhattan's Central Park, by contrast, is only 843 acres.) The Pentagon similarly fails to note all of the $5-billion-worth of military and espionage installations in Britain, which have long been conveniently disguised as Royal Air Force bases. If there were an honest count, the actual size of our military empire would probably top 1,000 different bases in other people's countries, but no one -- possibly not even the Pentagon -- knows the exact number for sure, although it has been distinctly on the rise in recent years."

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0115-08.htm

stevegmu
Jan 30, 2008, 05:45 PM
You are just embarrassing yourself with that 'source'.

Cloudane
Jan 30, 2008, 05:50 PM
You can trade online from an e-commerce firm, such as this one--

http://www.iii.co.uk/about/

Thanks, will take a look :)

skunk
Jan 30, 2008, 05:53 PM
I use iWeb:

https://share-dealing.iwebsharedealing.co.uk/Sharedealing/Public/SdWelcomeLogin.asp

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 05:54 PM
You are just embarrassing yourself with that 'source'.

http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/irm/irm_library/BSR2006Baseline.pdf

Read the 190 page structure report from the department of defense for yourself. My source was just a simple exert of the baseline report. Face the reality that we are over extended in many ways... and I am really glad your not handling my portfolio :P

AlphaBob
Jan 30, 2008, 06:17 PM
You are right about this, but we have also never lived in a generation of such drastic debt and our markets are not sustainable at this level of debt....

Drastic debt? Says who? By what historical standard?

The debt stands at $23,300 per US Citizen. So in my LIFETIME, the government has amassed debt of about $100,000 for my family of four. In the past five years, one tenth of my lifetime, the 401K at my latest employeer stands at over $200,000 (after the significant drop of the past few months).

How much money does an average new car cost? How much money for a house? When looked at in that light, there is nothing draconian about the national debt. Nothing to indicate that it can't be sustained.


While I disagree with your economic theories and 110% disagree with the accuracy of your facts and figures, you and I are in complete agreement with one thing...

The US can't continue to be the global police force. Frankly Europe consumes the majority of middle eastern oil, not the US. They are the ones that will find themselves in a world of hurt when the wells run dry. The US has huge untapped natural resources (coal and oil). Europe needs to man up and take care of their mess. Sadly there are far too many Chamberlain's in Europe.


Thread hijack over -- AAPL stock is down just to create an opportunity for common folk to buy it.

wmk461
Jan 30, 2008, 07:04 PM
Drastic debt? Says who? By what historical standard?

The debt stands at $23,300 per US Citizen. So in my LIFETIME, the government has amassed debt of about $100,000 for my family of four. In the past five years, one tenth of my lifetime, the 401K at my latest employeer stands at over $200,000 (after the significant drop of the past few months).

While I disagree with your economic theories and 110% disagree with the accuracy of your facts and figures, you and I are in complete agreement with one thing...

The US can't continue to be the global police force. Frankly Europe consumes the majority of middle eastern oil, not the US. They are the ones that will find themselves in a world of hurt when the wells run dry. The US has huge untapped natural resources (coal and oil). Europe needs to man up and take care of their mess. Sadly there are far too many Chamberlain's in Europe.


Thread hijack over -- AAPL stock is down just to create an opportunity for common folk to buy it.

I will be the first to admit that my figures are subjective truth, but the bottom line is that all figures are subjective. Subjective truth does not state a lie, but simply states a cultural/personal perception on reality. So the people including you and myself are voicing our opinions on subjective truths.
For example the here are some figures from the U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK:

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 31 Jan 2008 at 12:53:52 AM GMT is:
$ 9 , 2 0 6 , 2 2 5 , 7 2 4 , 4 4 9 . 4 3

The estimated population of the United States is 304,226,279
so each citizen's share of this debt is $30,261.11.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.43 billion per day since September 29, 2006!

Some sources also state that the true accuracy of our debt which is not all reported exceeds 50 trillion...

Regardless I appreciate that we both agree on that we should have to police the world.

Hutch98R1
Jan 30, 2008, 07:29 PM
Thread hijack over -- AAPL stock is down just to create an opportunity for common folk to buy it.

I bought recently at 140. Even though the stock has dropped even further, I'm not worried!
I just wish the stock would split, so I could buy a lot more shares.

It will rise again!


On a side note, I was about to short Apple and Google a few months ago... should have listened to myself.

gkarris
Jan 30, 2008, 07:35 PM
Interesting, considering there are only 194 recognized countries on Earth. Which planet are the other 6 countries located on?

Earth:

1. The Arctic
2. The Antarctic
3. Canada
4. Texas
5. California
6.+ The Independent Countries located in the Florida Keys...

:p

Hutch98R1
Jan 30, 2008, 07:45 PM
Here is my question with the market....

A year ago, when Apple was at 80 and the iPhone and all the new products had been announced, I figured everyone knew how great these products were going to be and had already inflated the price of the stock to a high 80. So, I decided not to buy.... well, as we know, the stock rose over 200. Everyone bought much later on.

So, does this translate to: In a market that I know a lot about and believe in, even though new product news is out, before profit/financial news it out, should I still buy?
(Yes, I am relatively new at this... flame on)
It just drives me nuts, that I knew things were going to do well, and thought everyone already knew and had bought.

law guy
Jan 30, 2008, 08:31 PM
Good time to buy. $$ :D

Amen. It's such an increase from just three years ago when it was around $23 a share. Buying low now takes a lot more money.

Philter
Jan 30, 2008, 09:34 PM
Apple stock is tanking because Apple stopped making tools (which people need) and started making fashion objects (which are the first to go in a recession.)

Maybe if Apple would make some real computers at fair prices... instead of these toys...

IJ Reilly
Jan 31, 2008, 12:27 AM
Apple stock is tanking because Apple stopped making tools (which people need) and started making fashion objects (which are the first to go in a recession.)

Maybe if Apple would make some real computers at fair prices... instead of these toys...

Where do you come up with this stuff? We demand less!