Steve Jobs Reassures Employees and Investors

[MacRumors]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

Appleinsider republishes (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/01/28/steve_jobs_to_apple_investors_hang_in_there.html) an internal email sent from Steve Jobs to employees reassuring them about the recent downturn affecting Apple's stock price.
"As you can see, we have outperformed many other blue-chip tech companies, including Google," he wrote, tacking on a stock performance comparison chart for illustration. "I continue to believe that our fundamentals - our remarkable people, our clear and focused strategy, our new product pipeline, our 200+ retail stores, our $18 billion of cash in the bank with no debt, etc., will serve us well in the coming months and years."Steve Jobs reportedly remained upbeat, expressing confident that "investors who stay with us will be rewarded as the market's confidence is restored over time".

Apple's stock price reached a peak of over $200 in late December, but has recently dropped down to $130 as of this writing.

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/2008/01/28/steve-jobs-reassures-employees-and-investors/)

[Jovian9]

The time to buy is now :)

[Mykbibby]

The time to sell was at 200 :mad:

[BrownManUPS]

And the time to gawk at Google's stock is coming!

[Unspeaked]

I certainly don't think Apple's a sinking ship, and I'm sure the stock price will turn around, but any good captain reassures the crew members as the boat goes lower and lower (see Enron, MCI, etc).

(Again, let me reiterate: I am not saying Apple is the next Enron! :rolleyes:)

[dabless]

I think he's right, Apple is set for anything the economy has to throw at it. By being smart with money and not being in debt, and with the great products and loyal following they have they will make it through where other's may fail.

I would actually consider buying Apple stock right now, since it's low. Even if it dips lower, I know it will jump back up when the economy is more stable.

[dabless]

any good captain reassures the crew members as the boat goes lower and lower (see Enron, MCI, etc).



YiKES, I sure hope not. Haha. I could never go back to PC.

[Silentwave]

I have a lot of confidence in AAPL. After the last quarterly report, I'm going to buy some stock around now (if my father didn't already handle that for me) while the price is pretty low.

People get their faith shaken by the silliest things... Apple is in a great position now and has a bright future ahead.

[iliketomac]

Buy, Buy, Buy... :rolleyes:

Gosh, it's all too volatile nowadays... recession or not.

[mangis]

Stock price has little to do with actual performance. There was no real reason for it to be as high as it was. Stock price also has very little to do with past performance. These are common shares, pretty worthless in the end, and manipulated by powerful people. Y'all should've sold at $160, hell I got out at $80 after quadripling my money.

[deathshrub]

Anyone who sells right now is a moron. The market always trends up over time.

[lazyrighteye]

Apple is in as good a position as they can be.
Once the market picks up, APPL will follow.

Long term, people.

[eddx]

Forget the MacBook Air, invest that $3000 dollars in Apple Stock today and get a better MacBook Air in 12 months when ur stock has double and your just buying Apple hardware with the interest from the stock, thats how to buy Apple technology, with their own profits :D lol

[Shacklebolt]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

[nxent]

yeh, i'm debating either buying aapl or a macbook pro...

[Tobi_Wan_Kenobi]

I think that is all true, but it just reminds me of Ken Lay at Enron appeasing the employee after a 40% drop.

We all know what happened. I think at $120 Apple is a great buy. Basically values the company at $100b ($18b in cash). That makes for a PE in the low 20's.

[081440]

Bought a bunch of Apple last Weds. :D There is a difference between investing and trading. Investing means you are going to hold onto your shares for the long run, and I believe that AAPL will come back to it's former glory. I'm also rooting for a stock split soon too, can't believe Apple hasn't split itself since it got above 100 :apple:

[puckhead193]

18 billion in cash ->:eek:
i think they will have a turn around i think the investors were pissed that their was no new iphone. Before no one gave a flying poo about mwsf until the iphone took over CES last year. Apple stole CES's thunder and people were scared. its the stock market, it happens.

[nxent]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

yeh, from their financial conference call.. while they posted record numbers for the 1 quarter, they gave a 'weak' 2nd quarter forecast. by 'weak', apple really meant 'normal' by most standards. people panicked and sold.

[Darkroom]

i wish i had $18 billion dollars with no debt... but even if i did, i'd still feel guilty in buying the MacBook Air...

[Unspeaked]

yeh, i'm debating either buying aapl or a macbook pro...

I can tell you which is the better long-term investment :D

[ScottFitz]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

I think it has tanked a bit due to the MBA not being viewed as the next killer app. It's not a mainstream laptop. It's not viewed as a breakthrough. The target market is very focused on business travelers. The issue there, of course, if that many business travelers are forced to work with Outlook Exchange. IT guys don't want to have to deal with VMFusion, Parallels or bootcamp. They don't understand it so they don't trust it.

Second point... Netflix is offering as a value added service (internet movie downloads) that Apple is trying to rent for 3 or 4 bucks. netflix timed their announcement very well it appears.

So, the two big things at Macworld were both met with a lukewarm reception for those analysts looking for the next killer mass-market consumer device.

[bommai]

Where are 10.5.2 and AppleTV updates? Give me that and I will buy 5 shares :D

[FX120]

Of course he is going to say that.

He just lost several billion dollars in the last two weeks.

[greendragon]

:apple: needs us! i only buy :apple:! boycott amazon! itms rocks! i bleed :apple:!!

[Hattig]

Maybe there are a few worries that Apple, as a producer of more boutique products, would be one of the companies that could lose out as people tighten their purse strings. People might buy cheaper alternatives, or Apple might have to cut its margins to be more attractive in the market.

However I think that people will just wait longer to buy their next computer. Especially if they have previously owned a Mac. What this could mean is that a huge growth in Mac sales will build up over the next couple of years - on top of the current growth.

[mcarnes]

"Buy low, sell high, that's my motto" -- Homer Simpson

[Shayne]

Sold at $177 a few days before MacWorld myself. I got spooked by what was gonna debut at the event as well as the upcoming Q1 results.

I'm not sure its a good stock to purchase now at $130. They are selling well in the computer market, selling slow in the iPod market, no fascinating products available now that haven't been available for years and with the ultra-secretive way of launching products its tough to know the potential.

AAPL is sorta like the lottery if you know 4 out of 6 numbers.

[mt4design]

A peecee friend bought shares for me as a birthday present when the price was $16.00 per. Of course, then they split.

I'm not selling anytime soon. My friend? Well, he's a Mac guy now.

[xenotaku]

Bought a bunch of Apple last Weds. :D There is a difference between investing and trading. Investing means you are going to hold onto your shares for the long run, and I believe that AAPL will come back to it's former glory. I'm also rooting for a stock split soon too, can't believe Apple hasn't split itself since it got above 100 :apple:



Apple stated a while ago they are taking Google route and won't be splitting anytime soon. Why would you want a split anyways? If you have 3000 bucks, it doesn't matter if you buy 3000 shares at 1 buck each or 30 shares at 100 each, its all the same amount of money. If it were to split, there would be more shares outstanding and it would move less.

[anamznazn]

I'm a bit interested in buying Apple stocks. Where and how do I start with these kinda things? I'm a bit new at it.

[daveman235]

i love that man......that stock has taken a huge hit since the new year has began. But i still believe in this company. And him sending out this msg to everyone gives me high hopes.... I think the man has a card up his sleeve. This year's gonna be a good year, i can feel it. I just wish i had the cash to buy some more stocks....i may have to dip too deep into my savings....

My advice y'all.....buy alot now !

[boss1]

Stock price has little to do with actual performance. There was no real reason for it to be as high as it was. Stock price also has very little to do with past performance. These are common shares, pretty worthless in the end, and manipulated by powerful people. Y'all should've sold at $160, hell I got out at $80 after quadripling my money.

You win at financial logic. You won at Quadrupling your money. And you win the thread imo.

[samab]

They are selling well in the computer market, selling slow in the iPod market....

Yup, they are going to change their name back to "apple computer inc.".

[Small White Car]

I'm a bit interested in buying Apple stocks. Where and how do I start with these kinda things? I'm a bit new at it.

Do have an account at a large bank, like Bank of America? The big banks do investing now too. You can have a checking account, a savings account, and a stock account all under your name in the same place. You can log onto your account online and see everything at once.

I don't know if that's the "best" way but I think it's the easiest, which is always good for someone new. If you're with a bank that doesn't offer that check out ING or TDameritrade online.


They are selling well in the computer market, selling slow in the iPod market

iPod income growth grew at almost the exact the same amount in 2007 as it did in 2006. Around 17% for each year. Dunno why it would be great for the stock last year but bad this year.

Basically thne whole market is down, and when that happens the companies that have grown the most in recent months are the first to suffer. A lot of new people got into Apple who didn't really understand it and when the market went bad they got spooked and got out. Long term it'll be fine.

[dashiel]

definitely time to stock up.

funny how no one has mentioned the "decline" in ipod growth matched almost exactly the growth in iphone adoption. analysts expected 25 million ipods sold. apple actually sold 22 million, they sold 2 million iphones. it doesn't take a genius to see where those "3 million" ipods went.

[Agathon]

Sold at $177 a few days before MacWorld myself. I got spooked by what was gonna debut at the event as well as the upcoming Q1 results.

I'm not sure its a good stock to purchase now at $130. They are selling well in the computer market, selling slow in the iPod market, no fascinating products available now that haven't been available for years and with the ultra-secretive way of launching products its tough to know the potential.

Yeah, because Apple's mobile OS X products have been available for years.

The explanation for most of the fall is simple, and has little to do with Apple. The market is jittery over a possible recession. It was the same back in November when the market fell, and Apple's stock fell at the same time. Eventually it crawled back up to its highest ever price.

Apple is sitting on a gold mine with mobile OS X. When the SDK comes out people will finally be able to see this. So far, there hasn't been anything close to a standard for handheld computing. Mobile OS X promises to be that standard, just as the iPod is the standard for digital music.

[anubis]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

Even though Apple posted record profit for Q1, their Q2 outlook was $0.1 billion lower than "analyists" (whoever they are) were expecting, which sent the stock shooting down.

[MikieMikie]

... I could afford 100 shares.

I can't even afford 1.

Sigh.

[anamznazn]

Do have an account at a large bank, like Bank of America? The big banks do investing now too. You can have a checking account, a savings account, and a stock account all under your name in the same place. You can log onto your account online and see everything at once.

I don't know if that's the "best" way but I think it's the easiest, which is always good for someone new. If you're with a bank that doesn't offer that check out ING or TDameritrade online.

I have both a checking and savings account with Wachovia, but I have no idea if they do stocks like Bank of America. I'll have to look into it. Thanks. :)

[grappler]

I just bought some AMZN.

Why?

I've learned that when a company starts to catch my eye, it just might be worth buying. With Amazon's web services, in which they're reselling use of their massive infrastructure to any other business that has a use for it, by usage amount in increments of a few cents, together with their huge catalog of DRM free music that nobody else comes close to right now, they've caught my eye.

[FX120]

:apple: needs us! i only buy :apple:! boycott amazon! itms rocks! i bleed :apple:!!

You need to get a life.

[maxp1]

I too sold at $80. Made %650. Don't really regret the money I left on the table after it went to $200, I think what I sold it for was what the company was worth at the time. Maybe it's worth $130 now, but I don't think so. Still, I might buy back in if it seems like the general market reduces it's volatility. The market seems to like keeping this stock above it's value. (yeah, yeah, it's value is what people think it is...)

[MrCrowbar]

Is there a way to see how many units of each item Apple sold per quarter? I wanna know if the Mac Mini is still selling. I want one of those. They're more expensive on eBay than what I get with my student's discount but I'm reluctant to buy because the Mini's haven't been updated forever. At the same time, I fear they get discontinued... what to do? I want a 1.83 C2D for under €530...

Anyway, yay Apple! Hope we get some neat stuff this year.

[gnasher729]

AAPL closed today at $130.01. Exactly six months ago, 25 July 2007, it closed at $137.26, and 12 months ago, 25 Jan 2007, it was $86.25. So while some people here are panicking, any investor who held for the last twelve months is up slightly more than 50 percent. Not bad at all.

To the guy who says this reminds him of Enron: How many subsidiaries does Apple have? Enron had about 4000, if I remember right. All there to produce fake profits.

[acrafton]

Here is an interesting chart reflecting the decline in Q4 Ipod sales year over year . . .looks like the aapl stock chart:

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/01/22/apple_ipod_grow.html

Anyway, it is just as realistic that aapl will go to 100 as it is that it will return to 200. Both seem oddly wrong.

[theheadguy]

Apple is in as good a position as they can be.
Once the market picks up, APPL will follow.
Long term, people.
Eh... so a bit of honesty if I may? A lot of people say "go long"... I feel like this is just reiterated from some stock program they saw the night before... Example being that anybody who owns the stock knows the correct ticker symbol of AAPL. People here say the media is emotionally involved? Are you kidding me? Everyone on this forum is emotionally tied to Apple (begin people swearing they aren't)...

I hope people here gain advice from people with experienced financial backgrounds. Don't risk your (or your family's) money soley on opinions stemming from this forum. For goodness sake you'd end up buying the wrong stock for starters.

[Kinsella217]

Stock prices have little to do with facts, so it seems as I've watched Apple's valuation over the last decade. And to be clear, Apple doesn't make products based around what -I- personally want.

But after a hot streak of about seven years, Apple's pipeline of products that I personally want, has run cold since the iPhone debuted.

I'm one of -those- guys... one of those people who's wants have for years been dictated by whatever Steve pulls out of his hat.

That said, since last summer, Apple hasn't come out with anything... not one single thing, that made me even think about pulling out my credit card.

The new iPods? Meh. The nano's form factor really made me scratch my head. The new interface with the split screen does nothing to improve my perceived ease of use.

The new iMacs positively anger me, with their confusing (does it want to be black plastic or solid aluminum?) design language and their super-glossy screen (and I own a G5 iMac, so I did like the basic concept before)

iWork was a maintenance release plus a lightweight spreadsheet... it's OK. iLife was a huge letdown, what with it's maintenance updates to iWeb and iDVD and the frontal lobotomy of iMovie.

Leopard... oh my goodness, Leopard. The new desktop, new dock, and new super-glossy, ultra-reflective, uber-transparent -everything- discouraged me from upgrading my home machines, but I did upgrade my work computer last week. In my own personal opinion, Leopard takes the Mac OS backwards pasted 10.2 Jaguar in joy of usage. For the first time in my computing life, I have turned over the last two days of work time (read: decimated productivity) to get things to work right or look even reasonably passable using Leopard. There isn't a single chance that my Macs at home will see Leopard until I see that some of my functionality issues have been addressed and resolved.

The MacBook Air was underwhelming... it seems to appeal to two tight niches and certainly wasn't designed for me... or the average Apple user, so it would seem It was -not- the portable laptop I wanted to buy from Apple. Time Capsules are neat, but expensive for what they are.

Again, Apple has done very, very well for itself in the last several months. They're selling lots of everything they make. They're getting critical acclaim, every time they swing open the doors of their retail stores. They've done everything right in the big picture and this stock price reaction confuses me.

But what I find distressing is that while I've eaten up 85% of everything they've debuted since I bought my first Mac in January of 1985, they've done nothing to tempt me or earn a second glance since I bought my iPhone last June.

Look, maybe it's me. I don't claim to be right. I don't believe that Apple exists to please me and it doesn't owe me anything. Maybe I'm the only person in the entire world who feels the way I do about the direction of their product line... I only know that I feel the way I feel. To me, the bloom is definitely off the... apple?

[tjcampbell]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A93 Safari/419.3)

Is this because of Heath Ledger?

[fdavila]

The Apple Board of Directors are looking to compensate Steve for his excellent work. Could it be that the low 2nd quarter guidance and stock slump is to get the stock to drop so that any stock options would be discounted??

Why not? Steve has gotten worthless stock options before. Surely, not now.

[QuarterSwede]

I think he's right, Apple is set for anything the economy has to throw at it. By being smart with money and not being in debt, and with the great products and loyal following they have they will make it through where other's may fail.
Being debt free is hard for any company but to be debt free AND 18 Billion up in hard, cold, cash is amazing. That is GREAT financial management.

[Rocketman]

1. Buy Apple stock. Apple are you listening?

2. When your stock is up X%, sell 2 x X% each month until you are at apogee or hold till next upswing.

Patient investor, impatient seller.

Rocketman

In said apogee and I am Rocketman :)

[SwiftLives]

Apple is seen by most investors as a short term stock. Drastic changes in the stock price tend to parallel Keynote events. The stock goes way up beforehand due to unrealistic expectations, then usually drops significantly during and after the keynote.

Also, many investors see Apple as a one trick pony: The iPod. And now that we're starting to reach a saturation point in the portable music player market, many investors are jumping ship.

Apple so far has failed to convince investors that they have another cash cow like the iPod up their sleeves.

Keep in mind that the stock market moves based on rumor and innuendo. The investors may very well be wrong on many of their theories. But it is what it is.

[lazyrighteye]

I think it has tanked a bit due to the MBA not being viewed as the next killer app. It's not a mainstream laptop. It's not viewed as a breakthrough. The target market is very focused on business travelers. The issue there, of course, if that many business travelers are forced to work with Outlook Exchange. IT guys don't want to have to deal with VMFusion, Parallels or bootcamp. They don't understand it so they don't trust it.

Second point... Netflix is offering as a value added service (internet movie downloads) that Apple is trying to rent for 3 or 4 bucks. netflix timed their announcement very well it appears.

So, the two big things at Macworld were both met with a lukewarm reception for those analysts looking for the next killer mass-market consumer device.

Agreed. The MBA, whilst an engineering marvel, is so niche that the rest of us non-business travelers are scratching our collective heads and asking "so, what's next?"

I think the market was/is ready for something fresh. Something new.
A device that redefines what we know as "a laptop," much in the way the iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone. And simply put: the MBA is not that device (and not intended to be that device).

I know it is beating a dead horse here, but I do think the market is ready for/wanting a hybrid iPhone/MacBook. Something larger than an iPhone but smaller than a traditional laptop. I am thinking more tablet/slate than just a sub notebook. So long, clam shell. Hello tablet.

-----

Now until Netflix plays nice and finally allows their streams to work on Macs, this stat is moot. Saying they offer a service is one thing. Actually supporting that service, is a complete different thing altogether.
Sure, Mac compatibility is said to arrive later in the year. But for now, moot for Mac/Netflix users (like myself).

[p0intblank]

$18 billion of cash in the back with no debt? Wow!

[DTphonehome]

I just bought some AMZN.

Why?

I've learned that when a company starts to catch my eye, it just might be worth buying. With Amazon's web services, in which they're reselling use of their massive infrastructure to any other business that has a use for it, by usage amount in increments of a few cents, together with their huge catalog of DRM free music that nobody else comes close to right now, they've caught my eye.

I would be careful with AMZN...their P/E is 88!

[PVguy]

"Stock price has little to do with actual performance."

Sure is true lately. The share price of my stock holdings dropped dropped from 260 to 150 over two days. That's in kroner, Norwegian kroner, on the Oslo stockmarket, for a company that makes solar cells (ticker REC.OL) (www.RECgroup.com).

What do they have to do with mortgage backed securities? Nothing!
Is the price of oil 1/2 what is was 2 weeks ago? No!
Did anything happen at the company to explain this! No!
Did the market for their product stop growing at 20% a year? No!
Are they denominated in USD? No!
Were they caught up in the thundering herd of nitwit "analysts" in full psycho headless chicken panic? BING BING BING! He have a winner!

In the long term, the markets make sense, even the stock market. In the short term, psycho headless chickens (now with improved computerized panic power!) is the best description I've ever heard.

[akadmon]

Where are 10.5.2 and AppleTV updates? Give me that and I will buy 5 shares :D

Stop watching so much TV. Get a hobby.

Being debt free is hard for any company but to be debt free AND 18 Billion up in hard, cold, cash is amazing. That is GREAT financial management.

If I were one of those investors, I'd be screaming for some of this cash. There is no reason why Apple should be sitting on so much cash while throwing 99 cent dividends at folks who actually own the company. But what do I know :)

[rfrankl]

I think that is all true, but it just reminds me of Ken Lay at Enron appeasing the employee after a 40% drop.

We all know what happened. I think at $120 Apple is a great buy. Basically values the company at $100b ($18b in cash). That makes for a PE in the low 20's.

Mkt value versus cash has nothing to do with p/e's.

[Prof.]

I admit that I don't know a whole lot about the stock market and the economy.

However, we can't look at Apple's falling stock and say that it's cause they are doing poorly. The entire US economy is doing poorly and as a result the stocks are falling.

Damn recession :(

[compuguy1088]

If I were one of those investors, I'd be screaming for some of this cash. There is no reason why Apple should be sitting on so much cash while throwing 99 cent dividends at folks who actually own the company. But what do I know :)

There is no dividend for the stock. They stopped that years ago.

[brewcitywi]

No company is perfect for sure.

But, i just don't understand a downturn from 190 to 130, when there have been so many financial and branding successes over the past few years.

It must just be a tech downturn in general.

[twoodcc]

well hopefully the market will rebound soon. i think apple will do better when it does

[DEXTERITY]

I have both a checking and savings account with Wachovia, but I have no idea if they do stocks like Bank of America. I'll have to look into it. Thanks. :)


Wachovia does. My stocker who was once with prudential is now under them as Wachovia. Even without that all Wachovia branches have a financial adviser who can purchase stocks for you.

[DTphonehome]

If I were one of those investors, I'd be screaming for some of this cash...

I AM one of those investors, and I'm sorely tempted to get on a plane and SCREAM for some of that cash at the next shareholder's meeting. Apple right now is doing ZILCH to restore investor confidence (this email is a laugh and certainly doesn't do anything concrete). They need to do one of the following:


Announce a dividend
Announce a buyback plan
Announce plans to purchase a company or two


If they just insist on sitting on that mountain of cash, people are going to have legitimate questions about what Apple plans to do for the next few years. You want to restore investor confidence? Do SOMETHING that investors can be comfortable with! Do something that shows Apple is making bold moves in their existing market or moving into new ones! Sitting around and waiting for marketshare growth is not showing enough aggression.

[Babasyzygy]

You win at financial logic. You won at Quadrupling your money. And you win the thread imo.

Not so fast. I bought it at $14. :)

[081440]

Apple stated a while ago they are taking Google route and won't be splitting anytime soon. Why would you want a split anyways? If you have 3000 bucks, it doesn't matter if you buy 3000 shares at 1 buck each or 30 shares at 100 each, its all the same amount of money. If it were to split, there would be more shares outstanding and it would move less.


If it splits then the price is more likely to attract smaller buyers. Doing that makes the stock a bit more stable yes, but it makes it less susceptible to the swings of the big players. These last couple of days have proved that. With the big guys (traders) dumping their shares the smaller investor has seen a greater percentage impact then the stock warrants.

[Babasyzygy]

They need to do one of the following:


Announce a dividend
Announce a buyback plan
Announce plans to purchase a company or two



I'm completely with you, with a preference for a buyback plan. Their stock has way outperformed just about anything else they could have their cash in. $18 Billion is an absurd amount of cash to sit on, it's actually a drag on their stock value.

[tuneman07]

I think the main problem with AAPL from an investment standpoint is that we are certainly in a down time in our economy and at down times Luxury type products usually don't do well. Not that Apple is all luxury products, but as far as computer companies go it is certainly more toward that luxury end of the spectrum. The MBA didn't help either- that is really moving in the luxury direction. At a time when people are likely to be pinching pennies the MBA is not the right "thing".

[rfrankl]

Stock split is a terrible idea. That just adds more shares to the float. If you look at the stocks like Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, eBay, Yahoo, Dell, etc that split and split, now they can't get out of their way. Apple has about 875 million shares outstanding. All those others have billions...that is why the stock doesn't move anymore. Hard to move it with so many shares outstanding. Google has moved nicely also because it doesn't believe in splitting shares, along with great earnings growth.

If a person can't understand that $1,000 invested is $1,000 invested no matter if the stock is $130 or $50, then I hope they don't invest in Apple.

[MacFly123]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

Yes. It is because of stupid analysts and their unrealistic expectations even in spite of amazing performance and the recession of the economy especially in the tech sector which is also worsened by the analysts.

Hi, I'm an analyst... Let me get some put options on AAPL and tomorrow I will talk trash about it to make myself a fortune and then buy more shares once I make them go down by the power of my words and blame it on a "recession". Then make the shares I just bought go back up the next day when I reassure everyone and reset my target and make myself more money...

Don't even get me started! :(

[Frisco]

Stock split is a terrible idea. That just adds more shares to the float. If you look at the stocks like Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, eBay, Yahoo, Dell, etc that split and split, now they can't get out of their way. Apple has about 875 million shares outstanding. All those others have billions...that is why the stock doesn't move anymore. Hard to move it with so many shares outstanding. Google has moved nicely also because it doesn't believe in splitting shares, along with great earnings growth.

If a person can't understand that $1,000 invested is $1,000 invested no matter if the stock is $130 or $50, then I hope they don't invest in Apple.

Well put! People always compare Apple's to Microsoft's--wow Apple's is so much higher!! They don't understand stock split.

[DTphonehome]

I think the main problem with AAPL from an investment standpoint is that we are certainly in a down time in our economy and at down times Luxury type products usually don't do well. Not that Apple is all luxury products, but as far as computer companies go it is certainly more toward that luxury end of the spectrum. The MBA didn't help either- that is really moving in the luxury direction. At a time when people are likely to be pinching pennies the MBA is not the right "thing".

I hear what you're saying, but at the same time, I don't think Apple really plans to sell very many MBAs, and those that they do sell will go to people who can afford it, economic downturn or no. As for the rest of their products, Apple has always been an "affordable" luxury brand. Sure, a Mac or an iPod might cost a little more than the cheapest competitor, but it's not thousands of dollars more, it's only a little bit more (percentage-wise). People will buy computers and MP3 players and cell phones anyway. They are practically necessities of modern life. So, they'll spend a little bit more and have "the best"...it's not like handbags where a perfectly functional one can be had for $20, but the "best" will cost $15,000 or more.

[chubad]

Buy Baby Buy!!
Then Buy some more.
:D

[chubad]

Funny how many people disregard the basic rule of Wall Street.
Buy Low. Sell High.
Sounds trite, but honestly look at how many people panic and SELL when the stock takes a beating.
Think Different!!!:apple::apple::apple:

[Arnold Ziffel]

Comparing Apple to Enron is despicable. Enron was a corporation built upon lies, deceit, and quicksand. Apple is a successful, growing compan, which is producing cutting edge products its competitors would kill to have.

The things goobers say to spread FUD!

[stealthman1]

Downturn in the economy? Recession? Get a clue, the economy is on the way up. Bush, with Congress's full support are going to make another monumental fiscal mistake to cover Greenspan's and Bernanke's asses and only a few of the pigs who needed slaughter are going to get it. If there is to be an economic meltdown, what's going on now, in the face of a teeny bit of turbulent water is going to be the cause. Just wait till the Social Security runs out...2017 IIRC, just around the corner.

[Shayne]

People can argue that the whole market is down, and it is, but I'm fairly certain the whole market isn't down YTD ~30% (checks rest of portfolio to confirm). AAPL being down could simply be a market correction for a stock thats been over hyped for the past couple year? Stong growth starting to level off some? Hard to say really.

[rtdunham]

Stock price has little to do with actual performance. There was no real reason for it to be as high as it was. Stock price also has very little to do with past performance. These are common shares, pretty worthless in the end, and manipulated by powerful people. Y'all should've sold at $160, hell I got out at $80 after quadripling my money.

So YOU bought common stock though it's "pretty worthless in the end"? And although your buying at a lower price and selling at 80 was a justifiable act for you, others buying now or selling now, at higher prices, isn't? Remember, they're making those decisions based on today's factors, not the ones that motivated you to buy at $20. Besides: you sold a stock at 80 that quickly soared to nearly 200. Maybe you should have sold at 160. :)

I think your analysis is oversimplified. I don't think much "manipulation" goes on "by powerful people" on a stock with as many shares in as many hands as AAPL. You say "there was no reason for it to be as high as it was". I'd argue there was, based on the expectation that future quarters would continue the level of growth it had experienced recently--it was a price based on future expectations, not past performance. Though the quarter just ended yielded robust results, the company's outlook for the present quarter wasn't so rosy, so the price declined. If Apple again beats its estimates and analyst expectations at the conclusion of this quarter, the stock will go up; if projections for the next quarter are favorable, it'll go up--or vice versa--but the stock's moves up or down will be due overhelmingly (general worldwide market conditions aside) to the company's performance, not manipulation.

[rtdunham]

We're all used to Apple's stock dropping a bit after announcements of new products (due to Jobs' remarkable ability to offer us cool stuff while still disappointing us), but it's really tanked since the MBA announcement. Any theories as to why?

We get caught up in fancy hardware. But I thought at the time the important announcement at MWSF was not the MBA, but the new :apple:TV software and the rental scheme and the availability of movies-to-rent from all six major studios. I saw a related item today that apple's making uncharacteristically little profit on the :apple:tv itself. That can only be because it's investing to build a nation's reliance on its hardware/software/retail movie scheme the way it built one for the music business. Could be wrong, but that's my view. Think how many prospects there are for MBAs, compared to the market for a convenient, reliable, appropriately priced method of viewing movies at home. The MBA market pales in comparison, whether or not it proves to be a hit. I think once the apple TV software's released and the studios' movies are in place we'll see aggressive advertising for that new segment of the company's business.

[thecritix]

he'll have to do iphone 2 now,
If he doesn't he'll risk not meeting 10 million iphone sales..

Jobs will now want to smash that 10 mil, expect a better iphone, possibly cheaper?

hope so anyway

[eastcoastsurfer]

Being debt free is hard for any company but to be debt free AND 18 Billion up in hard, cold, cash is amazing. That is GREAT financial management.

No it's not! I invest in Apple to do what Apple does (design and sell electronic devices), not manage my finances. I think we can all agree that Apple needs to be spending that money on R&D, engineers, etc... A company like Apple sitting on a lot cash scares me. Does it mean they are out of ideas to spend it on? The latest MWSF sorta confirms they are...

[akm3]

Anyone who sells right now is a moron. The market always trends up over time.

The MARKET always trends up, individual companies come and go.

I don't believe Apple is in trouble though, with $18 BILLION dollars cash and zero debt. I'd say they could weather some pretty intense storms.

[MikeTheC]

While many of us nit-picked the recent Stevenote, frankly the obvious, undeniable truth is that Apple is in as fine a condition as it has ever been in the history of the company, even in the heydey of the Apple II and the original hey dey of the Macintosh back in the mid-to-late 80s. In fact, the company's market position and strength dwarf where they once were.

Anybody who is panicky about Apple's future or continued viability is retarded.

[digitalbiker]

I think a lot of this has to do with a rapid investment in AAPL stock due to speculation on unrealistic future gains. Now that the rapid gains are slowing and are not expected to be as great in the near future, investors are bailing.

Also I think many investors look at the $18 billion in the bank as a negative. Most feel that this is too much cash on hand not doing anything. If AAPL is such a great investment and has such a great future, why are they not investing the cash in either 1) themselves; buying back stock, 2) encouraging future investment with a dividend to shareholders, or 3) Investing the cash in more R&D. Why sit on cash and fritter it away paying corporate taxes.

[Xtremehkr]

Steve's right, Apple is fine. With the economy as uncertain as it is, a lot of investors are just playing it safe. Money is being moved to investment areas that are considered safe harbors in times of economic uncertainty. The returns aren't great but people feel safe that they aren't going to lose too much money. When the economy rebounds, so will Apples share prices.

[HawaiiMacAddict]

Hi, I'm an analyst... Let me get some put options on AAPL and tomorrow I will talk trash about it to make myself a fortune and then buy more shares once I make them go down by the power of my words and blame it on a "recession"

Aloha MacFly123,

I don't know very much about options, but think you're stating the opposite of what you should be doing, unless you think AAPL is set to plunge down even further. If you go to Stock Charts (http://stockcharts.com) and plug in AAPL, then choose to view CCI, Full Schotastics, and Williams %R, you'll see that this is an excellent time for a CALL option, not a PUSH option. In other words, and please correct me if I'm wrong, a call option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving up in the short term, and a put option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving down in the short term.

I will be purchasing some AAPL stock this week, and possibly a call option - I'll have to wait on the option to see what it does over the next few days, but if I buy a contract, will buy one with an expiration date at least 6-12 months away. That way, I can either purchase 100 more shares at the option price or sell it to someone else.

As I mentioned above, I am really a n00b at investing in the stock market, so please correct me if my understanding of call and put options is incorrect. I will still purchase AAPL stock and continue to support Apple - as a switcher since August 2006, I am constantly amazed at the quality of Apple's products and ashamed of my reticence to consider them any earlier.

HawaiiMacAddict

[MacFly123]

Aloha MacFly123,

I don't know very much about options, but think you're stating the opposite of what you should be doing, unless you think AAPL is set to plunge down even further. If you go to Stock Charts (http://stockcharts.com) and plug in AAPL, then choose to view CCI, Full Schotastics, and Williams %R, you'll see that this is an excellent time for a CALL option, not a PUSH option. In other words, and please correct me if I'm wrong, a call option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving up in the short term, and a put option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving down in the short term.

I will be purchasing some AAPL stock this week, and possibly a call option - I'll have to wait on the option to see what it does over the next few days, but if I buy a contract, will buy one with an expiration date at least 6-12 months away. That way, I can either purchase 100 more shares at the option price or sell it to someone else.

As I mentioned above, I am really a n00b at investing in the stock market, so please correct me if my understanding of call and put options is incorrect. I will still purchase AAPL stock and continue to support Apple - as a switcher since August 2006, I am constantly amazed at the quality of Apple's products and ashamed of my reticence to consider them any earlier.

HawaiiMacAddict

You are not wrong. I think you just didn't detect my angst. I was acting as if I were an analyst and explaining how they manipulate the market with their reports and make fortunes in doing so. In other words, they would buy put options, then the next day trash the stock so that it does go down and they reap the benefits and then the inverse and so on, etc.

[JonasLondon]

I'm completely with you, with a preference for a buyback plan. Their stock has way outperformed just about anything else they could have their cash in. $18 Billion is an absurd amount of cash to sit on, it's actually a drag on their stock value.


Yes and no. I am quite happy to see AAPL hold on to this amount of cash at the moment. Managed in a sensible way, this alone yields enormous funds through dividends/interest, money that can be put to use to open retail stores (which by themselves may not bring in THAT much revenue, but based on my own experience, the London Regent Street shop brings in so much fresh blood to the Mac community, it's insane. It is one of the best shops in the street, open, friendly, layout, good people (most of them are very friendly and knowledgeable), and people go there to check out gear and make a decision, then go home and order it online (more convenient than lugging a 30" screen across London, let me tell you)).

If they could only start opening shops in Australia, New Zealand, Germany etc., so many more people would be (re-)introduced to Apple as a brand of high-quality computers. You wouldn't believe how large the percentage of people is who don't have Apple on their radar, yet it is sooo easy to show them why a MacBook Pro or an iMac rocks. Even my dad, who never made an Excel sheet during his business life, is now doing kick-ass Numbers spreadsheets that look the part for board meetings of a Norwegian company, exporting them to Excel and PDF just as easily.

Apple computers is the new iPod people. Forget stagnating iPod sales, Apple computers taking 10% market share in 4 years, that's what we should be looking for!

And then we have AAPL around $300. :-) :apple:

J.

[JonasLondon]

Aloha MacFly123,

I don't know very much about options, but think you're stating the opposite of what you should be doing, unless you think AAPL is set to plunge down even further. If you go to Stock Charts (http://stockcharts.com) and plug in AAPL, then choose to view CCI, Full Schotastics, and Williams %R, you'll see that this is an excellent time for a CALL option, not a PUSH option. In other words, and please correct me if I'm wrong, a call option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving up in the short term, and a put option is purchased when the market is perceived as moving down in the short term.

I will be purchasing some AAPL stock this week, and possibly a call option - I'll have to wait on the option to see what it does over the next few days, but if I buy a contract, will buy one with an expiration date at least 6-12 months away. That way, I can either purchase 100 more shares at the option price or sell it to someone else.

As I mentioned above, I am really a n00b at investing in the stock market, so please correct me if my understanding of call and put options is incorrect. I will still purchase AAPL stock and continue to support Apple - as a switcher since August 2006, I am constantly amazed at the quality of Apple's products and ashamed of my reticence to consider them any earlier.

HawaiiMacAddict

"PUSH" should read "PUT", andif you're a n00b at investing, maybe stick to the stock before you go into calls and puts. But in somewhat simplified terms, if you believe a stock will go up, instead of buying 3000 worth of AAPL stock, you could get 300 worth of CALL options (1:10) and as long as they remain "in the money" (the price they are based on is below AAPL's current price) and have a long time before they expire, you may see a profit similar to holding on to the "real stock". But please, read up lots and lots about this before you do any of this, and don't hold me accountable if it turns sour for you ;-)

Happy investing! I certainly agree that 3,000 into AAPL just now will probably buy you a MBA in a year from now. Unless the world's market collapse completely and the dollar hits extreme lows ...

[JonasLondon]

I think a lot of this has to do with a rapid investment in AAPL stock due to speculation on unrealistic future gains. Now that the rapid gains are slowing and are not expected to be as great in the near future, investors are bailing.

Also I think many investors look at the $18 billion in the bank as a negative. Most feel that this is too much cash on hand not doing anything. If AAPL is such a great investment and has such a great future, why are they not investing the cash in either 1) themselves; buying back stock, 2) encouraging future investment with a dividend to shareholders, or 3) Investing the cash in more R&D. Why sit on cash and fritter it away paying corporate taxes.

Rest assured they're already doing "3)". But I agree, maybe they should spend a bit more on it, as we eagerly await Aperture 2.0, maybe a pro iWeb application to rival Dreamweaver(?), and of course "Phenomenon" (aka Shake on steroids in a Motion-like user interface with probably Color integrated as well).

off-topic/btw - for those who haven't looked into Color as part of the FCS package - yes, it is a weird interface coming from FCP, but oh boy is that software powerful.... I really want to get into Video-Editing now. Watch a few podcasts on technology you don't really know yet, it can be so amazing!

:apple: rules :-)

[eastrow]

The market is driven by fear, greed and stupidity. Right now investors are scared out of the their mind (a generalization). The media is feeding that frenzy and large industrial traders are making a killing by fueling the fear and selling stocks short.

Apple is, and will always be more volatile than the market as a whole (anybody remember when aapl was down to $50 this summer?)

I believe Apple has a great current product line - Macs are growing like crazy, ipods and making the transition from MP3 players to multi media/internet devices. People are calling for an Apple tablet - take a close look at the the iTouch and the direction that Apple is taking the platform. It could be the tablet is something that isn't announced, but simply appears.

iPhone can easily become a full product line - just a phone w/internet, phone w/ internet a gps and phone w/internet, gps and mp3 capabilities.

The Macbook Air - the start of a new line in the laptop inventory. BTW - has anybody taken a look at the top 20 selling laptops on Amazon - last I checked MBA was in the top 10! Also, start to consider all the neat dongles/packages that will be available from third party accessory manufactures in the near term. (All of which will be easily transportable).

What would make me a happy - an announcement of a buy-back - I Apple truly believes that their stock is undervalued, a repurchase would prove to be a huge windfall to stockholders. Imagine aapl is heading back to $180 - a billion dollar buy back would result in and additional 300-400 million in cash for stockholders.

[gnasher729]

Also I think many investors look at the $18 billion in the bank as a negative. Most feel that this is too much cash on hand not doing anything. If AAPL is such a great investment and has such a great future, why are they not investing the cash in either 1) themselves; buying back stock, 2) encouraging future investment with a dividend to shareholders, or 3) Investing the cash in more R&D. Why sit on cash and fritter it away paying corporate taxes.

I learnt this from my previous boss, who built up a company from zero to about a billion dollar: If you have lots and lots of money in the bank, that is a very very good place for it. He let himself be talked into buying companies for a few hundred million dollars, three went bankrupt, one made tons of money, he came out just about even. With hindsight, it was a stupid thing to do, leaving that money in the bank would have made about the same profit at much much less risk.

Your points (1) and (2) take the point of view that the purpose of a company is to increase the share price. My view is that the purpose of a company is to increase its value; quite a different thing. And Apple is very good at that.

More cash into R&D? There is only so much that you can do. You can't just take a billion dollars and put it into R&D, not if you want anything useful out of it. You can't just buy good developers. You have to find them first. You can buy a thousand mediocre ones, who can build mediocre products that don't sell, no problem. But you can't buy good ones.

[gnasher729]

"PUSH" should read "PUT", andif you're a n00b at investing, maybe stick to the stock before you go into calls and puts.

My favorite quote about options: Trading options is like riding a bicycle - it is easy to learn, and it is fun - until you are hit by a garbage truck :D

[dongennl]

Picture it....

... Apple has loads of cash, good fundamentals and a low stock price...

... hello private equity?!? See the opportunity?

If only someone took control of Apple through the stock market and opened up OS X to all (or at least a limited 'approved' set of x86 machines) this company could become as big as (or bigger, as their products will actually be GOOD) you-know-who. (and unlike linux, this OS has Office, iTunes, Adobe, and loads of other commercial apps)

Steve's good, he's really got vision, but on this 'our hardware or no way' thing he is really wrong.

Think about it. Think what Apple could achieve with 10 times more money coming in.

Apple's hardware is so beautiful and cutting-edge that their HW business will survive, in fact it might grow as OS X market share rockets. Leave the corporate grey boxes and cheap consumer PCs to people who do that well but deliver us from this Vista crap!!!
(Hello IBM??? you gave us MS, time to clear up your mess, team up with HP).

[pubb]

Filemaker. They could fake the profits, they control their own records. And yours.

Pubb

How many subsidiaries does Apple have? [snip] All there to produce fake profits.

[eastcoastsurfer]

The whole reason the stock has tanked is part market, but mostly that iPod sales are slowing. When Apple renamed itself, they could've just called themselves "The iPod Store". That's where their crazy success has stemmed from. They are getting some sell through to other products because of the iPod and I think it will continue, but they will not sell computers at the rate they have sold iPods. And, iPod sales will continue to slow as most people who want one, have one.

[ScottFitz]

It's all perspecitve. If you bought at 200, the stock is tanking. If you bought at 20, you're stilll rather impressed with your decision.

I primarily invest in real estate. I understand it. I can go stand in the yard. I know what that market is doing and why it reacts the way it does.

I admittedly do not understand the stock market. I'm the logical kind of person that "knows" there's about to be a huge announcement on some record profits and I would think that now is the time to invest. Invariably, the price goes down after a huge successful announcment like that. What I think should happen logically is often 180 degrees from reality.

Hence, you have to use a broker you trust or you don't invest.

[DTphonehome]

My favorite quote about options: Trading options is like riding a bicycle - it is easy to learn, and it is fun - until you are hit by a garbage truck :D

Wow is that ever true!

[gkarris]

Let's get real here.

Apple products are mainly consumer (iPod, basic Macs), and creative professional (Mac Pros). They really don't have business products to keep them afloat during hard consumer times.

I have friends and people at companies I used to work for who are being told/or have just been laid off. Jobs are still being shipped overseas.

People just don't have the money to spend on fancy iPods, or upscale computers (Macs). People have also figured out that Apple products last longer, so the Mac they bought 3 years ago is just fine for the tasks (my iBook G4 is still going strong).

The same with the iPods. How much of the Classic 80 Gig can an average person fill? People are really happy with the Touches, do you think they'll "upgrade" to a Zune? People won't be buying new iPods year after year.

Will someone splurge for the new Mini or buy the cheaper AppleTV to use to watch videos and keep their old Mac (that won't play the new video files) for other things?

Bush's "cure" is to give us tax refunds of $600 each. Does he think people are going to go out and just spend it on stuff we don't need? I personally need new tires for my car - so that's were it's going.

So, let's say, someone decides to finally update their old computer and use the refund. $600 for a MacBook is not going to cut it, people will be settling for the cheap $450 basic laptops and spend the rest on bills...

Apple will weather this storm - they always have in the past. When others were saying "throw in the towel" or "Apple is going out of business", they've always proved everyone wrong. :)

[IJ Reilly]

Let's get real here.

Fine, but the "economic stimulus package" isn't directed any at one industry, let alone, one company. It's supposed to act like a shot of adrenalin to the economy as a whole.

But you are certainly right that the markets get into crisis of confidence mode with Apple on a fairly regular basis. The crisis has always passed in time and long-term investors are rewarded.

[EagerDragon]

It is the economy.
Apple does not produce or sell products that are staples such as Gas, electricity, food, housing, transportation, others. Apple products are akin to luxury items and a lot of people consider them over priced.

As such the market sicology is that people will shy away from purchasing Apple products and instead used their money for their basic needs.

The market is probably considering that Apple sales will be depressed for close to a year or two, making them not a good investment at this time.

By them posting extimates lower than the analyst, it confirmed it in the analyst mind, as such the big drop at first and it was followed then by further reductions that are being applied acrros the board to all companies that produce or sale non-basic items.

I expect a lot of fluctuation in the next few months, follow by a slow crawl upward until about October, then a somewhat big jump in anticipation of Xmass followed by 1 step back and two forward about every other quater.

I am guessing the stock will be around 180 by November and 160 in January and for it to start climing backup after March at bigger steps.

Just a guess guys based on some observations!!!!!!!!!!!!

[EagerDragon]

Fine, but the "economic stimulus package" isn't directed any at one industry, let alone, one company. It's supposed to act like a shot of adrenalin to the economy as a whole.

But you are certainly right that the markets get into crisis of confidence mode with Apple on a fairly regular basis. The crisis has always passed in time and long-term investors are rewarded.

So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.

[IJ Reilly]

So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.

It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.

[EagerDragon]

It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.

A nice one year tax reduction of 50% of my taxes (about the same amount as some people salary for a year) will get me to dance a tune or two (lampshade excluded).

[Quillz]

Kind of funny that this reassurance comes from Steve Jobs, a poor, poor man. I'd be worried about the stock as well if I only owned 5 million shares, plus an additional $13 billion.

[GQB]

I have both a checking and savings account with Wachovia, but I have no idea if they do stocks like Bank of America. I'll have to look into it. Thanks. :)

Start here...
http://wachovia.com/personal/page/0,,4803,00.html

[Mr. Mustard]

Sal!! Sal!! Sal!! Hey Sal!! Over here!

[gkarris]

It is what it is. I won't argue the merits of it as an actual stimulus, only that it's supposed to put a big slug of money into the economy all at once, and is not directed to any industry or company.

Not really so. I as far as my new tires - it would've gone on the credit card instead. People are just going to use the money to buy something they would've have bought or borrowed to buy anyways.

If it hurts anyone, it'll hurt only the credit card companies... people won't have to borrow to buy that essential, or use the money to pay back the credit card companies to avoid more fees...

[IJ Reilly]

A nice one year tax reduction of 50% of my taxes (about the same amount as some people salary for a year) will get me to dance a tune or two (lampshade excluded).

That's just the issue -- it's not designed to get you dancing a jig. If you believe in the stimulus theory (and I'm not sold on it), then tax reductions don't really work because the impact will come too late to make a difference. The idea is to pump money into the economy right now. Like I said, I'm not defending the stimulus theory, just pointing out how it's supposed to work.

[ddavid]

Comparing Apple to Enron is despicable. Enron was a corporation built upon lies, deceit, and quicksand. Apple is a successful, growing compan, which is producing cutting edge products its competitors would kill to have.

The things goobers say to spread FUD!
Do you have any idea what you are talking about?

[IJ Reilly]

Not really so. I as far as my new tires - it would've gone on the credit card instead.

If you bought the tires today instead of waiting another month or two, then the stimulus advocates would say it was a success. I'm not an economist but I believe it doesn't matter to this theory if you used the money to pay down a credit card balance or to buy something with cash because reducing your balance frees up credit which you are likely to use.

[gnasher729]

Do you have any idea what you are talking about?

If you know of any similarities between Apple and Enron then please tell us. We are all very, very curious.

[ddavid]

That's just the issue -- it's not designed to get you dancing a jig. If you believe in the stimulus theory (and I'm not sold on it), then tax reductions don't really work because the impact will come too late to make a difference. The idea is to pump money into the economy right now. Like I said, I'm not defending the stimulus theory, just pointing out how it's supposed to work.
The stimulus package that was introduced several years ago worked. I hope this one works as well.

If anyone doesn't want their check, they are welcome to donate the money to charity or send it back to the IRS. ;)

[Play4keeps]

Buy, Buy, Buy... :rolleyes:

Gosh, it's all too volatile nowadays... recession or not.

Just what i was thinking.

[ddavid]

If you know of any similarities between Apple and Enron then please tell us. We are all very, very curious.

Arnold Ziffel wrote
"Enron was a corporation built upon lies, deceit, and quicksand. Apple is a successful, growing compan, which is producing cutting edge products its competitors would kill to have".

I don't believe he knows much about Enron. They were a good company with a lot of talented people who were betrayed by their blind loyalty to their leadership and corporate cheerleading. Apple is not Enron, but simply because we like Apple's products does not make them immune to corporate misdeeds. (I don't know of any)

[eastcoastsurfer]

The stimulus package that was introduced several years ago worked. I hope this one works as well.

If anyone doesn't want their check, they are welcome to donate the money to charity or send it back to the IRS. ;)

I don't know if that one actually worked or just put off the inevitable. I know the one they are pushing through now is basically like giving a shot of liquor to the person in rehab. It'll only do a little bit in the short term and in the end won't change the outcome. The country is addicted and drunk to free credit. Of course free credit couldn't last and we're now seeing the hangover from that. Lower home prices and foreclosures have a long to way to go before things turn around. We're going to have to get all the people out of houses they couldn't afford in the first place before we see the bottom.

[Lord Sam]

He'll sure do well to cover the 80 buck drop in stock, and keep the shareholders staying with the company. But after all, he IS steve jobs. Jobs can do anything. ANYTHING.... ok, stop with the coffe, I know.

[TPALTony]

So far that stimulus package will buy my gas for two to 3 months and if used against the morthgage, it will not cover a single month on my mortgage. Not sure how much of a stimulus it is. Maybe others will find it great, I find it nice but nothing to get excited about, like getting a 5% discount at an Apple store, nice but I don't get excited until the price break hits at least 25%.

The basic premise is one of the money multiplier. If I give you $100 you weren't expecting to get, then (with a bit of luck!) you will go spend it. 20 other people do the same thing. Let's say that some of them shop at the same place (obviously they do when it's 20mm people so go with me here...) Now, the firm in question feels like things aren't so bad. So they go ahead with some small investment they were planning on making. Other firms do the same. And so it goes.

It's basically to keep the mindset away from saving. Of course the risk (see my luck statement above) is that people take their windfall and save it because they're still worried.

At the end of the day the markets are self fulfilling prophesies. The market is tanking right now because enough people are worried (based on speculation) and are hence selling. That's how it's always worked.

People invest in stocks for 2 reasons: 1) For long term fundamental reasons. 2) Speculation on market volatility for short term gain. 20 years ago, it was mostly (1). Like 95% plus. Speculation was a tiny bubble. Now, it's the other way around. 95% of trading is speculative. The result is more volatility. Over time, prices reflect the fundamental. But that's over multiple years. Short term prices reflect volatility and short-term views.

And don't forget, Apple ALWAYS gives pessimistic guidance on the upcoming quarter...

[gkarris]

I don't know if that one actually worked or just put off the inevitable. I know the one they are pushing through now is basically like giving a shot of liquor to the person in rehab. It'll only do a little bit in the short term and in the end won't change the outcome. The country is addicted and drunk to free credit. Of course free credit couldn't last and we're now seeing the hangover from that. Lower home prices and foreclosures have a long to way to go before things turn around. We're going to have to get all the people out of houses they couldn't afford in the first place before we see the bottom.

Let me correct you on that - used to afford...

Many I know were laid off and if they did managed to find another job - it was at half their original pay (like me...).

[Bregalad]

While there has been a predictable drop in most tech companies and makers of luxury goods thanks to the economic crisis in the US, AAPL has suffered more than many others.

Since the drop there appears to be concern about the number of iPhones that haven't been activated on approved carriers. Wall Street has made the erroneous assumption that all those phones represent lost AT&T revenue. The truth is exactly the opposite. If the iPhone was tied to "approved" carriers most of those additional sales wouldn't have happened. Apple could have sold 1.2 million fewer phones and thus lost almost half a billion dollars in revenue.

After paying all my bills there's precious little left for investment, but I did pick up 30 shares last week.

[zoetmb]

There is no reason for Apple stock to be below the $200 it was a few weeks ago other than Apple is getting hit for general weakness in the economy and/or the market and a few analysts think they see weakness in that iPod sales aren't growing fast enough, even though Apple just announced the best quarter in its history.

Apple has been flying on all cylinders for some time. Just about everything they've done has been executed perfectly. All divisions have increasing sales and increasing margins. The company has $18 billion in cash.

I have bought and sold Apple stock a number of times, but right now I'm holding.

Every pundit who has been negative about Apple has been proven wrong time and time again. It was said that Apple could not succeed in the MP3 player market. It was said that Apple was finished as a computer company. It was said that the retail strategy was a bad one -- too costly (Apple has the highest per sq ft sales of any chain retailer in the U.S.), it was said that the iPhone would flop, etc. They've been wrong on every single count.

Personally, I see only one major weakness in Apple: what is the transition plan if something happens to Steve and can Apple succeed with a senior executive who is "lower key" than Steve is?

As for the stock, if I didn't have such big recent losses elsewhere, I would pick up more stock. It's a bargain right now.

[EagerDragon]

The basic premise is one of the money multiplier. If I give you $100 you weren't expecting to get, then (with a bit of luck!) you will go spend it. 20 other people do the same thing. Let's say that some of them shop at the same place (obviously they do when it's 20mm people so go with me here...) Now, the firm in question feels like things aren't so bad. So they go ahead with some small investment they were planning on making. Other firms do the same. And so it goes.

It's basically to keep the mindset away from saving. Of course the risk (see my luck statement above) is that people take their windfall and save it because they're still worried.

At the end of the day the markets are self fulfilling prophesies. The market is tanking right now because enough people are worried (based on speculation) and are hence selling. That's how it's always worked.

People invest in stocks for 2 reasons: 1) For long term fundamental reasons. 2) Speculation on market volatility for short term gain. 20 years ago, it was mostly (1). Like 95% plus. Speculation was a tiny bubble. Now, it's the other way around. 95% of trading is speculative. The result is more volatility. Over time, prices reflect the fundamental. But that's over multiple years. Short term prices reflect volatility and short-term views.

And don't forget, Apple ALWAYS gives pessimistic guidance on the upcoming quarter...

Spend now, do good for the economy, do not use it to pay old bills and do not save it. Sounds like the Social Security System. First hickup and we go in the red, not to mention the US Deb and the interest on that.

I rather save it or use it to pay down a bill so I spend less in interest.

I get your point, and while better for the economy, it may or may not be better for the individual.

There are a few countries where the people save a large percent of their salaries and consume little but produce a lot for export and USA as the great consumer, takes all the excess products from those countries which increases their wealth and their savings.

[eastcoastsurfer]

Let me correct you on that - used to afford...

Many I know were laid off and if they did managed to find another job - it was at half their original pay (like me...).

Nope, I'm talking about the people who bought a house with ARMs, IOs, or negam loans where the only way the math would work is if the house value continued to increase so they could later sell or refi. If you were in the housing industry and didn't see the end coming, then I don't know what else to say. 20% or more/year is not something that's ever sustainable, and if you think it is I have a tulip bulb to sell you!

[sk8ordie]

If you bought the tires today instead of waiting another month or two, then the stimulus advocates would say it was a success. I'm not an economist but I believe it doesn't matter to this theory if you used the money to pay down a credit card balance or to buy something with cash because reducing your balance frees up credit which you are likely to use.

That is whats caused this whole mess in the first place, people are living beyond their means. People bought homes they couldnt afford and then used the home equity to live lavish lives. The party is over now that thier interest only loan is resetting and the home equity ATM has run dry.

This country needs a recession as a wake up call, a $300 - $800 check is going to do squat for the economy in the long run....Its merely a Govt handout during an election year.

[sk8ordie]

Nope, I'm talking about the people who bought a house with ARMs, IOs, or negam loans where the only way the math would work is if the house value continued to increase so they could later sell or refi. If you were in the housing industry and didn't see the end coming, then I don't know what else to say. 20% or more/year is not something that's ever sustainable, and if you think it is I have a tulip bulb to sell you!

QFT

[IJ Reilly]

This country needs a recession as a wake up call,

It also needs a plague epidemic to kill off all the old and weak people.

Anyway...

[ewxlt]

It sure seems that the MBA was a huge kick in the shins of the stock.

[seashellz2]

APPLE is doing well when you look around you.

And 9 out of the 10 chickens havent even come home to roost....yet

We still await:
The coming PRIME crisis-thought to be 2-3 times worse than the sub-prime.
The ARM se-sets this spring-think SPRING UPWARD, fall back by the thousands....
The tip of the iceberg in terms of fraudulent financial schemes and instruments coming to light-
GIANT banks and companies that dont have or are not worth a cent

The Fed rate cut was going to come after a meeting on Tuesday, but the attendees and Mr Berhenke panicked and let it loose Monday
You might say they pulled the dynamite stick from the dam just in time, when the fuse was down to one half inch left

[jettredmont]

AAPL is sorta like the lottery if you know 4 out of 6 numbers.

So you buy 100 shares and assure yourself of hitting both the main jackpot and two off-by-one jackpots, right?

Oh, that's not what you meant ... :)

[jettredmont]

Apple stated a while ago they are taking Google route and won't be splitting anytime soon. Why would you want a split anyways? If you have 3000 bucks, it doesn't matter if you buy 3000 shares at 1 buck each or 30 shares at 100 each, its all the same amount of money. If it were to split, there would be more shares outstanding and it would move less.

Splitting encourages dabblers. For large-block investors (eg, your retirement funds), it doesn't matter. But, for the guy with $100 extra this month who thinks, wouldn't it be cool to own a piece of Apple? He's locked out.

[jettredmont]

Stock split is a terrible idea. That just adds more shares to the float. If you look at the stocks like Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, eBay, Yahoo, Dell, etc that split and split, now they can't get out of their way. Apple has about 875 million shares outstanding. All those others have billions...that is why the stock doesn't move anymore. Hard to move it with so many shares outstanding. Google has moved nicely also because it doesn't believe in splitting shares, along with great earnings growth.

If a person can't understand that $1,000 invested is $1,000 invested no matter if the stock is $130 or $50, then I hope they don't invest in Apple.


Question: Why, then, is it "harder" for large investors (whose movements make the stock price move) to buy/sell $100k worth of $50 stock than $100k worth of $130 stock?

My understanding is that they only direct affect of a split is how easily a "casual" investor can get into the game. Secondary effects are up for grabs (ie, is that a good thing, or a bad thing, for stock volatility?). But that's the only primary effect.

More "float" is completely offset by the price-per-share. The important thing with "float" isn't the number of shares, but the dollar amount. A split doesn't change that one whit.

Of course, I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

[IJ Reilly]

My understanding is that they only direct affect of a split is how easily a "casual" investor can get into the game.

If you define a "casual investor" as someone who can only afford to buy one share, maybe.

Splitting shares used to be meaningful in the days when trading "odd lot" shares cost more in brokerage fees -- odd lots being defined as anything less than 100 shares. Now it really doesn't matter whether you trade ten shares at 100 or 100 shares at ten, the brokerage fees are the same.

[Towhead]

http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=205918895

[IJ Reilly]

That's right, everybody is trying to figure out why something happened after it happened. Now they need reasons?

[Philter]

Let's see how long Steve will keep yakking before Apple starts delivering. Where is the mid-market tower that so many of us want?

If Apple wanted to send their stock back to $200 all they would have to do would be to open up their OS to the full market.

[Lord Sam]

Well, don't stop reassuring, cause I'm not convinced, especially for the near future. In the long term, I think Apple can continue to perform expertly, but I don't know what is happening to them, and especially their stock.

[Much Ado]

Let's see how long Steve will keep yakking before Apple starts delivering. Where is the mid-market tower that so many of us want?

If Apple wanted to send their stock back to $200 all they would have to do would be to open up their OS to the full market.

Oh please not this again... Seriously.

How is licensing OSX going to send the stock to $200?

[saltyzoo]

No it's not! I invest in Apple to do what Apple does (design and sell electronic devices), not manage my finances. I think we can all agree that Apple needs to be spending that money on R&D, engineers, etc... A company like Apple sitting on a lot cash scares me. Does it mean they are out of ideas to spend it on? The latest MWSF sorta confirms they are...

QFT. You could create a pretty nice (non-integrated monitor) mid range system for a fraction of that cash and fill in the hole in the product line. One that could vie for a serious chunk of market share. Or... you could create something really amazing. The "next" thing so to speak.

Them sitting on that much cash is actually a bad thing from an investor and Apple product enthusiast point of view.

[IJ Reilly]

Oh please not this again... Seriously.

How is licensing OSX going to send the stock to $200?

Maybe he meant 200¢.

[Lord Sam]

Maybe he meant 200¢. I think that's the answer.

[Syrus28]

Let's see how long Steve will keep yakking before Apple starts delivering. Where is the mid-market tower that so many of us want?

If Apple wanted to send their stock back to $200 all they would have to do would be to open up their OS to the full market.

This would send their stock POURING down. No one in Apple wants to compete directly against Windows. Especially since Dell, HP, Sony aren't exactly "partners" with Apple. In fact, Apple competes directly with them. Why would they want to license Mac OS X? To make Apple more money? That's why Microsoft isn't in one bit interested in computer hardware because it would put them in direct competition with the companies that make them the multi-billion dollar company that they are.

Opening their OS, no matter how well it "just works" is suicide.

[gwangung]

This would send their stock POURING down. No one in Apple wants to compete directly against Windows. Especially since Dell, HP, Sony aren't exactly "partners" with Apple. In fact, Apple competes directly with them. Why would they want to license Mac OS X? To make Apple more money?

Back of the envelope calculations indicate that Apple would have to increase their sales by an order of magnitude (well, five to ten times) to equal their absolute revenue.

Yeah. Like that's about to happen in a year or two.

[michaelverdin]

Steve, im gonna give you some advice; sack Ive and make him work at Sony because since his change in design ideas, thats where he belongs and hire Lovegrove and pay him whatever he asks.

P.S say hi to Woz for me and tell him to return my seg cap.:apple:

[weev]

AAPL closed today at $130.01. Exactly six months ago, 25 July 2007, it closed at $137.26, and 12 months ago, 25 Jan 2007, it was $86.25.

Thank you for putting it into perspective. It has been a crazy 6 months.

Two things need to happen. 1. The chatter about recession disappears. 2. Apple has rumored or releases a new or vastly improved mass-masket (not boutique) device.

Then I say sell at $300 :D