Gartner: Apple To Double Its Market-share By 2011

[MacRumors]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

In possibly one of the more ambitious outlooks for Mac market-share increases, Gartner is forecasting that Apple will double its market-share in the US and Western Europe by 2011 (http://gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=593207). The reason for the dramatic increase is said to be two-fold: Apple continues to do well in its Macintosh unit and competitors aren't meeting Apple's competitive pressure.

Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling).

Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/2008/01/31/gartner-apple-to-double-its-market-share-by-2011/)

[clevin]

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

[MacSawdust]

If you consider the 8% stat as "real" people using Macs today, then 12% sounds reasonable 2011. Let's go for the slow and steady. Vista is no threat. We have time.

[bondsbw]

I would hope for more, although I know it's unlikely. Not that I'm the biggest Apple fan (although I have a Macbook and iPhone)... it's just that a competitive marketplace is very good for the consumer. Some large companies (who I shall not name, but have 90+% of the market) have played the lock-in game too long. It's time they put the money, that which they all-but-force from the pockets of their customers, to good use. And competitive pressures will force that to happen, and I applaud Apple for continually making a larger dent in the market.

[MrT8064]

i think this is a fair assumption, 3 years ago, i knew 2 people who used macs, now, i know 8, still not many but just in my circle of friends thats pretty extreme growth, and 6 of those 8 are in the intel era.

i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

[GSMiller]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

[futureswitcher]

I would absolutely love to see :apple: gain more market share...it's good for the competition!

i don't want to hate Micro$oft :rolleyes:


i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

i disagree. The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

[zirkle2007]

I can't imagine primarily using something on the go such as an iPhone, I love them, but for me there is no replacement for a laptop...I guess I'm just not a huge fan of doing any sort of work on such a small screen. I really don't see that part coming true though. Maybe 12" notebooks, but nothing smaller.

[tjcampbell]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A93 Safari/419.3)

we will see a boom in mac users down the road when the young iPod generation starts buying their own computers they go with what's hip, what's familiar and that's apple.

[motulist]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

[zirkle2007]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

Good point. There's a lot of truth in your statement. I can see how that would factor in!

[amac4me]

The gain will be broad based and a significant percentage will be the direct result of SWITCHERS.

I've been saying for years (since 2005) that the Mac user base was to embark on a significant growth phase. I've held that position and it is well documented.

Who needs a PC? :cool:

[geerlingguy]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

Specifically, 12 years ago (1996), when Apple was holding on for dear life (comparatively), and when I almost decided to buy $100 worth of Apple stock at less than $13 (that was two splits and a couple hundred dollars worth of per share increase ago).

I'm glad for Apple, but sad I didn't take that risk. Oh well, better safe than sorry...

[czachorski]

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

Did you ....mmm, not think they were going to go from 1.6% to 8% in the last 5 years?

[zirkle2007]

Who needs a PC? :cool:


I do agree, but until OS X learns to handle video cards the way Windows does, my games will stay primarily on my PC or Boot Camp...sad thats the only reason I even have Windows anymore. :p

[juanm]

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short if they get a good MacGamer solution and convince Autodesk and the like to join OS X development.
In a mere two years, Apple growth forecast has changed a lot: Intel, iPhone, and the still underestimated :apple:TV can mean a new deal at an even higher scale, let alone if Apple surprises us with a new pipeline even only once a year!
People are getting tired of Windows, and most are opening their minds towards the Mac. Europe is still a virgin, concerning Macs. iPods have still to take off (I don't count the UK)... and if you add to that the iPod/iPhone halo.

Three years and 2x look like something feasible, given good conditions (economy, marketing, and "Vista 2.0" mostly)

[virduk]

Who needs a PC? :cool:

Sadly I do as long as there isn't a upgradable desktop Mac that's affordable.

[sdevore]

a little over a year ago they thought apple should sell the hardware biz and license os to dell

http://daringfireball.net/2006/10/gartner_jackasses

[Ernest]

They will get one more Fo Sho.

[ChrisA]

The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

The above is the very definition of a "flat" no-growth market.

[rstone3]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

This is very well stated - and I suspect that we are close to that critical mass. I also have a lot of people that I know who have recently adopted the Mac as another poster mentioned. I suspect one other crucial thing is the fact that in the Intel era one is not totally committed to Mac software in that for the price of Windows it can be loaded on a Mac.

As another illustration of how far behind Windows is a friend of mine just bragged about how his new version of Word under Vista can create a PDF file whenever he wants one (WOW!). I woke my iMac and showed him how OS X has been able to do that with any application for years. :p

[HornetOSX]

Sadly I do as long as there isn't a upgradable desktop Mac that's affordable.

what exactly can't you up grade in a mac pro ??

sure it will void your warranty ......... but then again .. if you put a new processor in your dell same thing.


mac pro - up to 16GB of ram, MANY articles of people tossing the newest processors in them and workin just fine. , Vid card?? well this may be limited but there ARE upgrades out there.

So I ask again .. what can't you upgrade??? Well I guess mobo.. but it's a mac.. you want a new mobo you buy a new machine.

[ChrisA]

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short...

No, by design Apple only goes after the top X percent of the market. In order to have very large market share Apple would need to offer a computer at each price point. Apple ignores the low margin price points.

Apple will remain forever a boutique reseller by choice. Their problem is that should they ever become truly mainstream they loose the ability to charge premium prices and they become Dell or Compaq.

[MacFly123]

Well I don't really feel like being politically correct, so let me just say, I HATE MICROSOFT :) Ahhh.... I feel so much better now lol.

I think the next several years will reveal how absolutely genious the iPod and iPhone really are. They are literally leading a revolution and raising a new computer generation in the world that sees that Apple really is BETTER, EASIER, MORE BEAUTIFUL, COOLER, MORE FUN and so on! We will see that the iPod and iPhone do not just have "HALOS" but are literally the SAVIORS that will convert masses to all things Apple :)

[zirkle2007]

what exactly can't you up grade in a mac pro ??

sure it will void your warranty ......... but then again .. if you put a new processor in your dell same thing.


mac pro - up to 16GB of ram, MANY articles of people tossing the newest processors in them and workin just fine. , Vid card?? well this may be limited but there ARE upgrades out there.

So I ask again .. what can't you upgrade??? Well I guess mobo.. but it's a mac.. you want a new mobo you buy a new machine.

I think you missed the 'affordable' part. Where you might be able to justify the price of the Mac Pro and say its affordable for what you get, most consumers looks at that and say "Whoa!"

Most people want a 400-500 dollar machine they can upgrade over the years and keep awhile. Apple doesn't have this. Sure the iMac is in a sense their solution, but its still not what the majority of consumers want.

[MacFly123]

No, by design Apple only goes after the top X percent of the market. In order to have very large market share Apple would need to offer a computer at each price point. Apple ignores the low margin price points.

Apple will remain forever a boutique reseller by choice. Their problem is that should they ever become truly mainstream they loose the ability to charge premium prices and they become Dell or Compaq.

So how do you explain the cost of the iPhone and its record shattering adoption?

Here is the thing. The middle class in America is disappearing. All these people that are moving into the upper class are wanting and going to want the UPPER CLASS computer. The rest will have crappy PCs. It's sad, but it really is true. People are learning that with a big purchase like a computer, you really do get what you pay for and they want a NICE computer. And now because of the iPod and iPhone they know just how nice Macs really are.

Do you remember when pretty much all fast food meals were $5.00??? Well no anymore lol. They have evolved the market into more upscale type foods and suddenly you now spend $10.00-$15.00 at pretty much any place unless you are eating from a dollar menu. The same thing is happening in the computer industry. And when people get their first make and fall in love, they really don't care that it cost more and they will definitely spend that much more again next time to stay with Apple. Once you go Mac, you never go back :)

[MarlboroLite]

Since I've just recently switched, I guess count me in as the 0.00000001% increase in their market share! :p

I know the intel move and some research as my old PC was dying is what made me switch. The iPod probably helped too. I think Apple could easily achieve that kind of market share by 2012.

[Frisco]

I think you missed the 'affordable' part. Where you might be able to justify the price of the Mac Pro and say its affordable for what you get, most consumers looks at that and say "Whoa!"

Most people want a 400-500 dollar machine they can upgrade over the years and keep awhile. Apple doesn't have this. Sure the iMac is in a sense their solution, but its still not what the majority of consumers want.

True Apple needs an affordable upgradeable machine. If Apple offered that their market share would increase even more. Just think if Apple decided to license their OS--Mac market share would increase exponentially, almost over night.

[Performa]

Specifically, 12 years ago (1996), when Apple was holding on for dear life (comparatively), and when I almost decided to buy $100 worth of Apple stock at less than $13 (that was two splits and a couple hundred dollars worth of per share increase ago).

I'm glad for Apple, but sad I didn't take that risk. Oh well, better safe than sorry...
I took a chance in 2000, and bought 1500 shares for $20,000. That's the good news.

The bad news is when I lost $100,000 worth of stock value within a couple of days last week.

I hope they are right about this doubling in market share. Maybe I'll be rich!

[zirkle2007]

I took a chance in 2000, and bought 1500 shares for $20,000. That's the good news.

The bad news is when I lost $100,000 worth of stock value within a couple of days last week.

I hope they are right about this doubling in market share. Maybe I'll be rich!

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Thats a lot of money!!! Luckily it seems things are turning around, at least for today it seems that way. I'm anxious to see what they open at.

[kabunaru]

Good news that Apple will gain marketshare.
I wonder when Windows PCs will be gone? :D

[brad.c]

I took a chance in 2000, and bought 1500 shares for $20,000. That's the good news.

The bad news is when I lost $100,000 worth of stock value within a couple of days last week.

I hope they are right about this doubling in market share. Maybe I'll be rich!

Unless you're close to retirement, I'd not be too worried about your losses.

Look at it this way: you took a chance in the beige/pre-bondi blue era, and the value went up. Stock low again? Time to buy more.

[La Porta]

So how do you explain the cost of the iPhone and its record shattering adoption?

Here is the thing. The middle class in America is disappearing. All these people that are moving into the upper class are wanting and going to want the UPPER CLASS computer. The rest will have crappy PCs. It's sad, but it really is true. People are learning that with a big purchase like a computer, you really do get what you pay for and they want a NICE computer. And now because of the iPod and iPhone they know just how nice Macs really are.

Do you remember when pretty much all fast food meals were $5.00??? Well no anymore lol. They have evolved the market into more upscale type foods and suddenly you now spend $10.00-$15.00 at pretty much any place unless you are eating from a dollar menu. The same thing is happening in the computer industry. And when people get their first make and fall in love, they really don't care that it cost more and they will definitely spend that much more again next time to stay with Apple. Once you go Mac, you never go back :)

If you say so: I still pay under $3 for two burritos from Taco Bell, and always have :).

My thing is this: people should think of the computer as an investment. I know people who have Macs going for 4-5 years (or more) and people who have bought the $500 PC (or sometimes even the $1500 PC Laptop) and have it start to go to pieces in 6 months. MacBooks and MBPs aren't flawless in quality, but if you do the math, the Mac pays for itself in longevity, frustration, hassles, etc. I can cite tons of examples of people on my Med School who have switched and can't believe computers could be so easy, stable, or long-lasting. This is where people are going: Paying $1500 once for 4 years instead of $500 every 1 1/2 years.

[cms2]

Since I've just recently switched, I guess count me in as the 0.00000001% increase in their market share! :p

Ditto!
I think the Apple Store was pure genius. I think that the cost of the machine had for a long time kept me at bay, but then when I actually got to use a mac, touch one, pick it up... the quality (of the material, the design, and yes the experience) suddenly made the mbp worth more than they were asking for it.
When I was making the decision I asked my wife to come compare computers with me. I had to drag her, but I got her to look first at the mbp and then at whatever Bestbuy was shilling - even with the increase in the price for the mac she insisted that we buy it, "these black ones (hp) feel tacky (cheap) compared to the silver one (mbp)!"
Now she wants to trade in my old Dell that she uses for an iMac. By the end of February (if things go as planned) we will be an all Mac family. :D

[stevegmu]

I took a chance in 2000, and bought 1500 shares for $20,000. That's the good news.

The bad news is when I lost $100,000 worth of stock value within a couple of days last week.

I hope they are right about this doubling in market share. Maybe I'll be rich!

But you are still up $180000...
Don't you have an automatic sell order with your broker, should the value of a stock fall by a predetermined %?

[SheriffParker]

More Market Share... I hope this means better products, not just more money for Apple.

[KingYaba]

I wonder when Windows PCs will be gone? :D


Never.

[stevegmu]

I heard the Army is switching to Macs. Does anyone know if institutional/government purchases are factored in while determining market share?

[twoodcc]

that would be nice if he's right. we'll see though. a lot of things can happen between now and then

[brad.c]

Ditto!

When I was making the decision I asked my wife ...
... Now she wants to trade in my old Dell that she uses for an iMac. By the end of February (if things go as planned) we will be an all Mac family. :D

Here's hoping! It's a smart idea to soft-sell the wife on the touchy-feely strengths of the Mac. It's always easier to buy technology when she's on board.

Now if only I could get MY wife to see just how sexy a 42" HD flat panel would look in the living room.

[Bababasjd]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

In possibly one of the more ambitious outlooks for Mac market-share increases, Gartner is forecasting that Apple will double its market-share in the US and Western Europe by 2011 (http://gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=593207). The reason for the dramatic increase is said to be two-fold: Apple continues to do well in its Macintosh unit and competitors aren't meeting Apple's competitive pressure.





Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

Article
Link (http://www.macrumors.com/2008/01/31/gartner-apple-to-double-its-market-share-by-2011/)

Clearly who ever wrote this does NOT KNOW A GOD DAM THING ABOUT ECONOMICS. I DON'T CARE IF THIS IS NY TIMES; who ever wrote this is uneducated and knows NOTHING, NOTHING about economics. This almost makes me sick. Do you understand how the market is constantly changing? its like if I buy a house for 300,000 dollars and sell that house for 1 million dollars, that does not mean that I can buy 8 houses for 300,000 daollrs and each sell it at the same price. IN fact, the economy is doing much worse than before so I do not foresee how this will continue.

[a1016neo]

WOW double by 2011! Let's hope apple can achieve that!:D

[cms2]

I heard the Army is switching to Macs.

Does anyone know if there's any truth to this whatsoever?

At first blush it seems doubtful, just knowing that government purchases (800 dollar hammers excepted) tend to be bottom dollar, on the other hand, maybe the improved security boasted by the Mac platform could be a factor :confused:

EDIT: just found this looking around - http://www.forbes.com/home/technology/2007/12/20/apple-army-hackers-tech-security-cx_ag_1221army.html According to Forbes the Army has 20,000 Macs out of its 700,000 pcs, but is adding roughly 2,000 macs a year.

[aiterum]

I kind of hope the market doesn't switch to apples strategy

it's nice to.... oh I don't know.... HAVE CHOICES?

[HornetOSX]

True Apple needs an affordable upgradeable machine. If Apple offered that their market share would increase even more. Just think if Apple decided to license their OS--Mac market share would increase exponentially, almost over night.


Apparently your not old enough to recall the Apple clone era that nearly killed apple the first time.

and affordability is VERY relative.

having a machine that does what I want when I want the first time everytime means a LOT to me.

I just bulit a windows box for a night club I do work with. Fast? sure. Cheap? yup. stuck with windows? YUP. has problems that my mac NEVER has? I could maek a list.

Like TV out. restart it 4-5 times before it takes note of the TV hooked up THEN lets me turn on dualview.
this is not a problem with ONLY that machine. seems the last 4 PC laptop's I've used have not wanted to notice a TV hook up the first time around. ( I don't even have to restart my MBP to use the TV out.. just hook up the dongle on my G4 with a Radeon7K just tell it to turn on...)

[zirkle2007]

Like TV out. restart it 4-5 times before it takes note of the TV hooked up THEN lets me turn on dualview.
this is not a problem with ONLY that machine. seems the last 4 PC laptop's I've used have not wanted to notice a TV hook up the first time around. ( I don't even have to restart my MBP to use the TV out.. just hook up the dongle on my G4 with a Radeon7K just tell it to turn on...)


I'm going to through out the term 'user error'. I work with PCs and Macs alike. I've hardly ever had trouble with either. I've never had a virus on my Windows machine and love Vista. Yes, I said love Vista, kill me. The Windows machines I use have had zero trouble hooking into monitors, projectors, or tvs. I'm not defending Windows or PCs, but I'm just saying. I use both, like both, and have little to no trouble with either.

[pit29]

There may be even more in it for Apple should they finally put out the G5 PowerBook... :D

[bxs]

> Quote
> Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use
> devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable
> devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this
> arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

I see this as Apple next niche. I believe there's a market for a form factor between the iPhone and the laptop that people will flock to. Maybe a 8" to 10" display tablet. It obviously would be used much like the iPhone is today.

[ryanmcd02]

I have no doubt that market share will be growing steadily. It is difficult to get older people to switch what they use, but if you go to a college cafeteria or library you will see an awful lot of apple computers being used by students. I think this is as important as the iPod prevalence; iPod popularity actually translated into laptop purchases.

I was surprised at how relatively few iPhones I saw on my campus after xmas break though. My school has a large population of well-off students driving more expensive cars than they should be. I have seen a lot of smart-phones, but the iPhone didn't dominate after a xmas break like the Razr seemed to when it came out. I could be totally off on this though.

[La Porta]

Does anyone know if there's any truth to this whatsoever?

At first blush it seems doubtful, just knowing that government purchases (800 dollar hammers excepted) tend to be bottom dollar, on the other hand, maybe the improved security boasted by the Mac platform could be a factor :confused:

EDIT: just found this looking around - http://www.forbes.com/home/technology/2007/12/20/apple-army-hackers-tech-security-cx_ag_1221army.html According to Forbes the Army has 20,000 Macs out of its 700,000 pcs, but is adding roughly 2,000 macs a year.

Sounds good! They have had a long history with Macs (at least the AF does). I can testify: I have a Mac Plus that has 'PROPERTY OF U.S. AIR FORCE" melted/branded into it.

[gifford]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

me

I can't imagine primarily using something on the go such as an iPhone, I love them, but for me there is no replacement for a laptop...I guess I'm just not a huge fan of doing any sort of work on such a small screen. I really don't see that part coming true though. Maybe 12" notebooks, but nothing smaller.

I think you are forgetting that screens on small devices may not necessarily have to be small in a few years. Foldable etc

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

Easy. Not only will Apples traditional market share be steaming ahead, their new iPhone type devices which are effectively computers (and even more so by then) will be selling like hot cakes. Apple only need to have a small sliver of the phone market to become the most popular full blown OS on the planet! Though I expect Android might just take that title from them in time.

[fblack]

More market share would be great. It would attract more developers.

I think there is a tipping point as someone previously posted. However, I'm not sure about doubling market share in 3 years. The dollar is weak, banks are looking for bailouts from the sub-prime mess, if people start getting laid off then money is going to be tight. I think if the economy gets worse then maybe we are looking at apple gaining 10% by 2011.

I do think that once they hit the 12-15% range we might indeed see a surge in market share.

[JFreak]

I'll get excited once they can claim 10% WORLDWIDE market share (or OSX user base). Until that happens, yes, growth is great but double digit would be divine.

[Dale_Nx26]

I would hope for more, although I know it's unlikely. Not that I'm the biggest Apple fan (although I have a Macbook and iPhone)... it's just that a competitive marketplace is very good for the consumer. Some large companies (who I shall not name, but have 90+% of the market) have played the lock-in game too long. It's time they put the money, that which they all-but-force from the pockets of their customers, to good use. And competitive pressures will force that to happen, and I applaud Apple for continually making a larger dent in the market.

Are you talking about Texas Instruments??? j/k. but i do hate them.

[sunfast]

Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

This interests me. I'm particularly keen to see where the iPhone goes over the next little while (with the SDK, hardware updates at some point etc) for this reason. I've always been a notebook chap but for the first time I'm considering a desktop with an updated iPhone as my travelling companion (in the future of course).

[ageha]

If you consider the 8% stat as "real" people using Macs today, then 12% sounds reasonable 2011. Let's go for the slow and steady. Vista is no threat. We have time.

That's right, Vista is a bless for Apple, they really did them a favor.

[i.maverick]

True Apple needs an affordable upgradeable machine. If Apple offered that their market share would increase even more. Just think if Apple decided to license their OS--Mac market share would increase exponentially, almost over night.

i wish for that to never happen..!!
not the market share, but the licensing.!!

[ageha]

i wish for that to never happen..!!
not the market share, but the licensing.!!

That was already the case in the 90s. "Apple authorized other companies to manufacture and sell PowerPC-based Mac clones."
http://www.everymac.com/systems/by_manufacturer/index-mac-clones.html

[Otaviano]

> Quote
> Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use
> devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable
> devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this
> arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

I see this as Apple next niche. I believe there's a market for a form factor between the iPhone and the laptop that people will flock to. Maybe a 8" to 10" display tablet. It obviously would be used much like the iPhone is today.

I could not agree more, I've been thinking about this non stop since purchasing my iPhone. I really think the iPod Touch wass the most logical evolution of the iPod. Music was the central focus back when the technology was new and in development, right now we are at a point where the technology has caught up and connectivity can truly become the central focus of these pocket devices.

[John Purple]

...
But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

This is true since the early 1980s and was discussed by that time also (not on the internet however ;) ). Certainly due to SJ being stubborn not to give the mass what the mass wants (at that time: hard discs, color monitors, today: [fill in what you are missing]) but doing nice products for those who share his view on design, user interface etc., the explosion never happened - and will not happen in the next years, I guess.

[rstansby]

Over the last 20+ years that I have used macs I have frequently felt that I had to explain myself when I told a PC user that I use the Mac. Lately whenever I say I use a Mac the response I get is "Oh yeah, my next computer is going to be a Mac." I never heard that even 5 years ago, now I hear it all the time.

Maybe the tide finally is turning, I hope that is a good thing.

[Chimpy]

what exactly can't you up grade in a mac pro ??

sure it will void your warranty ......... but then again .. if you put a new processor in your dell same thing.


mac pro - up to 16GB of ram, MANY articles of people tossing the newest processors in them and workin just fine. , Vid card?? well this may be limited but there ARE upgrades out there.

So I ask again .. what can't you upgrade??? Well I guess mobo.. but it's a mac.. you want a new mobo you buy a new machine.

Yes, the memory is upgradeable, but even the budget stuff is pricier than standard PC ram (yes, I know there's a reason for that, but still).

And as for video upgrades, if you own an X1900 there's really currently no upgrade path for the first-gen Pro users. Hopefully the 8800 will be released for those users, but until then the only recourse you have is to flash PC cards to work with your mac, a dicey proposition at best.

Please bear in mind that this is all coming from a very happy owner of a first-gen Pro (2.66, 4 core). I love the machine, but would dearly love a new graphics card in it.

[igazza]

worldwide apple only has 3.5% of the market share, 8% in the us.

if windows 7 is anything like vista apple will have 20% of the market by 2011 .

[IJ Reilly]

The last time I recall the Mac having a market share over 10% was in the early or mid-'90s. While it would be a great accomplishment to have it return to this level, it's worth keeping in mind that the Mac was widely considered to be irrelevant even when its market share approached 15%. I doubt this mindset will ever change very much. For evidence I can point to the market's reaction to last month's quarterly earnings report. Apple reported Mac sales growth three times the industry average, yet all anyone could see was the relatively slower growth of iPod sales. The bottom line is, a great many people now see Apple as the iPod company, and little else. Apple still has a long way to go to "prove" to the world that it needs more than one operating system.

[EagerDragon]

True Apple needs an affordable upgradeable machine. If Apple offered that their market share would increase even more. Just think if Apple decided to license their OS--Mac market share would increase exponentially, almost over night.

Overall I like your post, just one nick-pick .... The word Affordable is a relative term. If you make a mil or two a year everything is affordable and if you make 20,000 a years almost nothing is affordable. Also your priorities come into play, some are interested in dinner for the table and some prefer to drink or gamble their money. Both have a place in the elusive Affordable term. Even 400 computers may not be affordable to some and a Wii maybe a preferred purchase to some based on their priorities.

[farmboy]

I think you missed the 'affordable' part. Where you might be able to justify the price of the Mac Pro and say its affordable for what you get, most consumers looks at that and say "Whoa!"

Most people want a 400-500 dollar machine they can upgrade over the years and keep awhile. Apple doesn't have this. Sure the iMac is in a sense their solution, but its still not what the majority of consumers want.

$400-500 machine? Sales figures, including percentage of laptops, say you are wrong. It's like saying everyone wants a Kia or Chevy Aveo--the numbers say no.

[farmboy]

I took a chance in 2000, and bought 1500 shares for $20,000. That's the good news.

The bad news is when I lost $100,000 worth of stock value within a couple of days last week.

I hope they are right about this doubling in market share. Maybe I'll be rich!

Yeah, me too. But you didn't lose ANYTHING unless you sold it--it's just a valuation. Invest a regular percentage of your earnings for the long term and leave it alone; all the fluctuations don't matter, as the stock market has trended upwards for 100 years, including the Depression and all the recessions. You won't regret it, and you probably will get rich.

[EagerDragon]

Just my opinion:
As I stated a few post ago (read up) the term Affordable is a relative term.

Anyone remember the old Volkswagen bug? It was the car for the common people, much more affordable for those times. It sold well but did not put everyone else out of the market.

Dell and Gateway are in the same business, selling dirt cheap computers to the masses. Take a look at their financials and you will notice they are not doing that well.

Apple is not interested in going after the masses with a dirt cheap computer for multiple reasons that we do not need to go into.

Apple is going after the cool, just works, price reflects its value customer.

The closest Apple came was with the mini and it was overpriced by 100 to 200. I would love a nice mini for multimedia, Back-to-my-mac, backup server and print server but I rather pay down my mortgage earlier than purchase one at the 799 price. If Apple where to lower that baby by 200 or even 150, I and many others would be tempted. The mini would be my 4th Mac in the house (already have 3 laptops for the family). So priorities take a place also into the equation.

Lower prices yes, cheap for the masses not likely to happen. Apple will gain substantial market shares by delivering cool products at prices that fill their pockets without making the product only affordable by the very rich.

[carlgo]

Here's hoping! It's a smart idea to soft-sell the wife on the touchy-feely strengths of the Mac. It's always easier to buy technology when she's on board.

Now if only I could get MY wife to see just how sexy a 42" HD flat panel would look in the living room.

Tried patches, logic and hypnotism? And she still is addicted to the clunky old tv?

For only $19.99, cash only please, Dr. Carlgo offers you this guaranteed cure!

Don't read this until you have sent the money.

Make her watch those home improvement shows and buy a pile of home decor magazines featuring modern high-end houses. Point out that it just looks so much better when they replace the big clunky old box with a flat screen. It makes more of a fashion statement than any new couch and frees up so much more space.

Sell it as decor, bling, fashion, anything but the specs. If you get into a discussion about 1080p and Blu-ray, you will lose and have incurable nightmares for years.

Keep the cost and size of the associated electronics down. Most guys drag their wives into the Expensive Room, thinking they will be impressed by giant speakers, miles of wires, multiple remotes and stacks of black boxes that for some reason are designed to look like scientific instruments.

What woman, you ask, wouldn't want ion counters and gravity wave benders in their living room?

The answer is, surprisingly, twelve. There are twelve women in the world that want that stuff in their living room. If you press this issue and try to sell both the flat screen and a big home theater system you will lose and suffer from ED for years to come.

So, if you send in that cash, read and study my prescription, you will indeed enjoy a flat screen in your living room, never have a nightmare and be more manly.

For only $49.95, cash only please, Dr. Carlgo will give you the prescription to get a giant home theater system that is totally beyond reason in every way.

And, if you act now, Dr. Carlgo will give you another Rx for a huge pair of subwoofers guaranteed to loosen the very structure of your house.

[EagerDragon]

Here's hoping! It's a smart idea to soft-sell the wife on the touchy-feely strengths of the Mac. It's always easier to buy technology when she's on board.

Now if only I could get MY wife to see just how sexy a 42" HD flat panel would look in the living room.

About 3-4 years ago I did just that. I sold the wife on the idea and gave her a powebook 12" 1.25 for her birthday. A few months later I got mine and later we purchased one for our kid.

Not sure if it works for others, but it worked for me. Not only that but now the wife wants a MacBookAir and the wife, kid and I want an iPhone version 2 when it comes out.

[EagerDragon]

Rock's Xtreme XL8 promises twin GeForce 8800M GTXs
Posted Feb 1st 2008 10:30AM by Darren Murph
Filed under: Gaming, Laptops

Merely two days after Dell added NVIDIA's GeForce 8800M GTX to its beastly M1730, it seems that Rock is looking to up the graphical ante as well. Reportedly, the firm is gearing up to unleash the (likely rebadged) Xtreme XL8, which will house an Intel X6800 quad-core processor, a delightful pair of NVIDIA GeForce 8800M GTXs, up to 1TB of storage space and a 17-inch 1,920 x 1,200 resolution panel to boot. Furthermore, you'll find an Ethernet jack, Draft-N wireless card, an obligatory (no, really) HD DVD drive and a presumably laughable battery life. Waiting for the sting? Try £2,500 ($4,976) to £3,000 ($5,971), with pre-orders going live later this month.

--
Found it in engadget, the most notable part (to me) is the quad core. Would be sweet in a MacBook Pro.

[acslater017]

woo! third-gen iPhone!

[cornercuttin]

i think Apple can double their market share, but they are going to have to do something about their prices. as sexy as they are, Apple hardware is very, very pricey, especially in their Mac Pro series. for the same amount of money, I think you can get a PC with as-good-as or better hardware, run a faster version of Linux, plus have the availability to actually replace my hardware easily (or upgrade it).

my next computer will be a Mac, but it comes at a cost. i haven't purchased a computer in over a year now, and it will probably be a year or two before I get my next one (a MBP). i haven't purchased an Apple computer in 3 years. that will give a 4 to 5 year cycle of me investing anything into Apple, which is not what they want. if the MBP were $500 cheaper, I would have gotten one last year. in a 3 year span, I bought an iMac, a PowerMac, 2 iPods, and numerous pieces of software. but that streak ended 2 years ago. all I have bought since is an iPhone, and that thing partly embarrasses me because my friends know I am getting bent over by Apple when I want a different ringtone, and I am buying stuff from a company that is trying to keep me locked out of my own hardware. not just software, but my own hardware.

luckily for Apple, they have figured out how to brainwash a lot of people and convince them of their omniscience. there are a lot of people out there in which Apple can do no wrong. they will buy a polished turd if Apple sold one. i think this is what Apple might have to worry about, because the fanboism has become a complete turnoff to me. 5 years ago I was a true Apple user and defender, but the fanboism now makes me want to puke. i hope they gain a lot of market share, for then maybe we won't have to pay so much money for a novelty item.

[hiptobesquare]

Most of the posts in this thread are talking about Apple computers. Apple isn't only in the computer business anymore, and some Apple computer users even think that computer hardware is taking a back seat to media devices and service, where apple has an 80% marketshare in the segments it competes in, with the iPod, and the iPhone is also making serious headway.

The industry isn't going to stay the same. It isn't going to be about people sitting in front of a box on a desk, and "using the computer."

The computer isn't even going to be the computer anymore. The computer is going to be integrated into other things.

The big things on the horizon right now seem to be media center computer controllers, or portable combo devices, like the iPhone, ultra-portable laptops (which can take the place of portable DVD viewers and other single-use devices), and automotive integration technologies, like GPS navigation, hard-drive based, or iPod compatible ICE systems, and the like.

The computer isn't going to be a box on your desk. Or at least not ONLY the box on your desk. It is going to be in your TV/Home entertainment system. It is going to be in your cell phone, and in your car's dashboard, or at least in your car as a portable device. Integration is the name of the new game.

Once these sort of things start hitting critical mass, and if Apple can ride that wave the way it is with iPhone and iPod Touch, and the way it has made stand-alone computers fashionable and easy, with the iMac... it is going to reach critical mass, and grow along with it.

People were amazed at the iPod when it first came out, and considered themselves "cool" to even have one. Now a good number of people have several, and some families have many of them, collectively.

iPods get replaced. older white iPods get traded for smaller Nanos, or bigger capacity classics, and even some nanos, and newer style "classic" iPods are being traded for iPod touches, and iPhones with web connectivity and multitouch. It is a recycling marketshare, which also grows as new technology spreads down the price list.

I think the MacBook Air is just a stepping stone, too. A toe in the water before jumping in to a new class of portable computing that Apple could very well bring to the wider market, like the iPod. it is a stepping stone to smaller footprint computing, in more than just the physical sense. Computing with less optional equipment. Computing with less clutter, less weight, and less cabling. Co-opting other optical drives wirelessly is just the first overture. Time Capsule storage and backup via wireless is another.

I can imagine a day, within 1-3 years, when I have a Home Data Storage and media control server. It would be hardlined to the wired network, taking LAN, Cable/Satellite, land-base or VoIP Telephony, HD radio and TV air broadcasting, and whatever else, into a central home system. That system would of course be accessible by other devices in the home, like Cellular/Wifi/Land-line remote hybrid phones, video monitors, workstation terminal on the desk, whatever you choose.

I wouldn't need a big box on my desk at home. A 10" multi-touch slate-style tablet, as thin as, and lighter than the MBA, with wifi, 3G, and bluetooth, (and corresponding new technology in the future), a pair of USB and/or Firewire ports just in case, power, and a video output port, running the OS from an internal solid state memory array.

On a side note, I think SSDs are going to be a stepping stone to just replaceable memory for both operation (RAM) and storage (SSD-like). Why carry the weight of a hard drive casing with flash chips in it? why not just have the chips in a socket, like RAM? RAM has no encasement around it for more dead weight... and it is still just as replaceable and transferrable. Even a plastic envelope like an SD card has makes more sense than a metal drive case around non-moving, less volatile and sensitive parts.

For less portable use of such a 10" pad, a bigger screen, bluetooth keyboard and mouse, network storage and printing, and that 10" pad becomes dockable as a light-to moderate use workstation and internet terminal, or even presentation driving device. Only PRO grade stuff would need a full power workstation, or a full power mobile laptop workstation, which apple also does build, and likely will continue to do, for those who need that. But, why waste money putting Pro hardware into use as an internet terminal, and word processor, if that is all you really need?

Apple is one of the best companies at changing the paradigm, and integrating hardware into useful and intuitive uses. THAT is where things are going.

And devices are only going to get more disposable/recycleable, turning in technology to be dismantled and regenerated into newer technology. Some upgradeability is good, but you can't upgrade a Powerbook with intel processors. You can't upgrade existing laptops with multi-touch touchpads or screens. You HAVE to buy new for new technology, and mandating a very high level of upgradeability is counter productive to making equipment more affordable for now, and for replacement later.

I like being able to upgrade a bit. more memory, more drive space, replacement battery, etc. But that is different than non-user-serviceable core upgrades, which most people don't do, and most often require major hardware revisions. over-engineering hardware revisions to be extremely backward compatible leads to things like Microsoft's Vista still having aspects of DOS involved, and all the compatibility headaches that come with windows being compatible with new and old hardware from every vendor under the sun.

Make things cheap enough to be replaceable more often, more in the idiom of cell phones, and decades of backward compatability become less of an issue, and new technology takes off without long tethers to the distant past.

[futureswitcher]

I use both, like both, and have little to no trouble with either.

You have little to no trouble with windows? I'm jealous!

[brad.c]

Tried patches, logic and hypnotism? And she still is addicted to the clunky old tv?

For only $19.99, cash only please, Dr. Carlgo offers you this guaranteed cure!

Don't read this until you have sent the money.

Read it, but will still send the money anyway. Will PM shortly.

Actually, getting permission is easy. Getting her to pony up her share is another matter.

[dwman]

More market share would be great. It would attract more developers.

That's definitely the upside.

It's a bit of a double-edged sword though. More users mean more market share, but that invariably will invite hackers to start going after the OS X platform, ala Windows. Not knowing much about security, I have heard Unix is safer, but that doesn't mean much to a bunch of teenagers with a lot of time on their hands.

[IJ Reilly]

Most of the posts in this thread are talking about Apple computers. Apple isn't only in the computer business anymore, and some Apple computer users even think that computer hardware is taking a back seat to media devices and service, where apple has an 80% marketshare in the segments it competes in, with the iPod, and the iPhone is also making serious headway.

One of the best ways to find yourself ignored around here is to write lengthy or complicated posts. I just wanted to let you know, if nobody else does, that you made some good points. Apple takes the longer, more strategic view of the marketplace, and if we care to understand what they are doing, it pays for us to think in those terms as well.

[fblack]

That's definitely the upside.

It's a bit of a double-edged sword though. More users mean more market share, but that invariably will invite hackers to start going after the OS X platform, ala Windows. Not knowing much about security, I have heard Unix is safer, but that doesn't mean much to a bunch of teenagers with a lot of time on their hands.

Unfortunately most things have trade-offs. More market share may bring more developers, more software, more innovation as more people bring their talents to the mac side, even (there we hope) a few more hardware options, better interoperability between devices and platforms, but yes also more security risks. However, it may be preferable to the lean times, the dark times when apple users were few, software limited and our choice of OS on the verge of extinction. I personally would rather not go back there.

[surferfromuk]

Isn't it 8% now? A doubling would make 16% wouldn't it ?

That's only selling 10 million more macs a year - should be easy (not that I'm downplaying the significance of those numbers)

I think Gartner are seriously way under the mark here.

If Apple keep up their current rate of innovation, and given the huge boost in R&D in the last year I'm guessing innovation is about to get even faster and more incredible, then I would say 20% market share by 2011 is not entirely unrealistic.

Add to that the fact that Microsoft have announced that the successor to Vista will not be out till 2011 I'd say 15-20% is almost guaranteed.

I've seen an explosion in Apple tech in that last year - I go to offices now and 40% of people have 'an Apple product' : be that an Ipod Touch, iPhone, or a Mac, plus everybody has now heard of Apple.

Two years ago 60% of people didn't even know they made computers.

[Chimpy]

While I'd love to see Apple make big roads into the desktop market, I take any claims by Gartner with a boulder-sized grain of salt.

[avklevens]

The year was I think 1998 or 99. Our friends at Gartner predicted the death of the Macintosh. The quote was something like "Niche market, hobbyist would continue to use the systems, but the computers were done"

I give little credence to Gartner reports concerning Apple or Macs. Some of us knew then what others are just learning now ...

[Syrus28]

Isn't it 8% now? A doubling would make 16% wouldn't it ?

That's only selling 10 million more macs a year - should be easy (not that I'm downplaying the significance of those numbers)

I think Gartner are seriously way under the mark here.

If Apple keep up their current rate of innovation, and given the huge boost in R&D in the last year I'm guessing innovation is about to get even faster and more incredible, then I would say 20% market share by 2011 is not entirely unrealistic.

Add to that the fact that Microsoft have announced that the successor to Vista will not be out till 2011 I'd say 15-20% is almost guaranteed.

I've seen an explosion in Apple tech in that last year - I go to offices now and 40% of people have 'an Apple product' : be that an Ipod Touch, iPhone, or a Mac, plus everybody has now heard of Apple.

Two years ago 60% of people didn't even know they made computers.
Not so fast. Remember, the computer industry is not stagnant. Every year, millions of users buy a new computer. However, can you really imagine Mac's market share doubling in 5 years? Lets be real here; Vista left Mac OS X and Linux in the dust last year.

Lets look at some numbers:

Microsoft has sold 100 million copies in 8 months compared to an estimated 50 million mac users total. Now I know "sold" means sold to retailer/OEM, and does not represent users so lets look at market share.

Vista is estimated at a ~10.47% market share while Mac is ~7.31%. Again, Vista, in the period of 8 months, has more market share than the entire Mac OS X Platform which has been out since 2001. XP in comparison, current has ~76.91% market share, compared to ~84.33% in January of 2007. This means XP has experienced a drop in about 8% market share while in that same time frame, Vista has experienced 10.47% market share. This would seem that the large majority of Windows users are going to Vista - Not Mac OS X.

So for Apple to double Mac OS X's market share in as little as 5 years would seem highly unrealistic. While Apple steals a minute amount of users from Windows, Windows will be introduced to nearly all of the new computer users out there. Chances are people who will experience computers in the next 5 years are not going to migrate straight to Mac OS X, which would be necessary for them have that kind of growth. Especially considering their computer hardware business would have to grow at the same rate - also highly unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't think we will ever experience Mac OS X taking over Windows - if both even still exist - in our life time.

So to conclude, Apple gaining 20% market share in Operating Systems by 2011 is highly unlikely in my opinion. I do, however, see them hitting something like 13% max by 2011.

Just think. Vista, and all the controversy and bad publicity it has called, has still hit a market share higher, in 8 months, than Apple has in 7 years. And if Microsoft has its way and releases another critically acclaimed OS like Win 95 or Xp, again, we can say good bye to 20% Mac OS X market share for another 5 years. So I'd say Apple has more worry than ever this time around. What if Windows 7 is actually good? The whole stance Apple has on Leopard is how it "just works" better than Vista. What Will it have in 2011? [Assuming Windows 7 is good] People new to computers just don't go out and buy Macs. Mac Users are probably 75% likely to have migrated to Mac OS X FROM Windows. And if Windows 7 is good enough to satisfy their needs, Microsoft has just cut Mac OS X's main supply line for new users/growth