iPhone with 28% of U.S. Smartphone Marketshare for Q4 2007

[MacRumors]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

Canalys reported (http://www.canalys.com/pr/2008/r2008021.htm) on both U.S. and Q4 2007 mobile phone marketshare numbers today and listed Apple's iPhone as #3 (6.5%) in smart phone marketshare worldwide despite being only available in a few countries. Apple trailed Nokia (52.9%) and RIM (11.4%) who were #1 and #2, respectively, in the worldwide market.

Meanwhile, Canalys estimates that Apple is #2 in U.S. marketshare with 28%, behind RIM (41%). This put the iPhone ahead of both Palm (9%) and all Windows Mobile device vendors combined (21%).

During the Macworld Expo keynote speech, Jobs reported that the Apple iPhone won 19.5% of the smart phone market during the 3rd quarter of 2007, so this 28% marketshare in Q4 represents signficant growth in the second full quarter the iPhone has been on sale.

Today, Apple introduced a 16GB version of the iPhone (http://www.macrumors.com/2008/02/05/apple-announces-16gb-iphone-and-32gb-ipod-touch/).

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/2008/02/05/iphone-with-28-of-u-s-smartphone-marketshare-for-q4-2007/)

[Lord Sam]

Wow. Who saw that coming? 'Cause I certainly didn't. I was thinking 20% absolute tops.

[kkat69]

Good going Apple. Wish I had an iPhone :(

Alright, all that aside, bring on the MBP and MB whiners out there to give this news article a negative feedback.

[clevin]

shipping market share, not user base

anyway, where is Jobs' 19.5% from?

[HailToTheVictor]

Ahead of RIM by years end?

[gifford]

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista on new devices? Not long at this growth and the 3G phone hasn't even been released yet. And when it does.. whooooooosh

Im sure somebody will point out the recent growth of Vista , problem is its not sustainable, whereas OSX has only just begun.

[clevin]

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista?

100 years?

[InkMaster]

wow, thats actually pretty damn amazing. Can only imagine what happens once the SDK comes out - probably gonna be over 50%

[inkswamp]

I don't want to take anything away from Apple because this is a significant success for them, but originally they were talking in terms of simply gaining 1% of the overall cell phone market, not isolating numbers by looking at the smart phone market only. Where does this put them in terms of the overall cell phone market? I'm betting they're still under 1%.

[SheriffParker]

iPhone looks like its here to stay... Too bad for Windows Mobile. They had a huge head start and everything. Now they just got left in the dust. Like babies.

[Lord Sam]

Wow. That's incredible. Way to go Apple! And yes, I do wonder where they are in the overall phone market.

[stevegmu]

I don't want to take anything away from Apple because this is a significant success for them, but originally they were talking in terms of simply gaining 1% of the overall cell phone market, not isolating numbers by looking at the smart phone market only. Where does this put them in terms of the overall cell phone market? I'm betting they're still under 1%.

Could be, but its not fair to compare the iPhone to throw-away phones that are free. I imagine the Razr is the most popular cell phone in the US, but I don't know anyone who has one who has actually had to pay for one.

[colinmack]

Could be, but its not fair to compare the iPhone to throw-away phones that are free.

May not be fair, but I think it was the benchmark Apple threw out...

[Sky Blue]

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista?

Never.

[Stella]

The u.s phone market is so far behind the times its only worth a glance. The *real* indicator is Europe and Asia, even better, worldwide market share.

Apple, due to its iPhone business model will create a glass ceiling for itself.

[Marx55]

Both the iPhone and iPod touch need

Intel Silverthorne inside

to get the full

Mac OS X 10.5.1

And then Firewire and full-quality video out (wired and wireless).

Then the worldwide marketshare will be 50% or more.

[stevegmu]

May not be fair, but I think it was the benchmark Apple threw out...

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has 1% of the market for phones that are not free. I saw a kid on Heelees at the mall with one last week.

[Sky Blue]

Both the iPhone and iPod touch need

Intel Silverthorne inside

to get the full

Mac OS X 10.5.1

And then Firewire and full-quality video out (wired and wireless).

Then the worldwide marketshare will be 50% or more.

and a DVD drive so you can watch movies on the go:rolleyes:

[seppoj]

May not be fair, but I think it was the benchmark Apple threw out...

Handset Manufacturers, market stats Q4 2007
According to market watcher Strategy Analytics these are the results Q4 2007:
Nokia sold a staggering 133.5m mobiles
Samsung 46.4m
Motorola 40.9m
Sony Ericsson 30.8m
LG 23.7m
Apple shifted 2.3m iPhones

Market share remains as follows:
Nokia 40.2% market share, the highest in its history
Samsung 14%
Motorola 12.3%
Sony Ericsson 9.3%
LG 7.1%
Apple 0.6%

Overall: 332m mobile phones shipped in Q4 2007
(source Strategy Analytics)

[gifford]

100 years?
At the current rate of growth less than 3 years.
I'm gonna go on record and place in my tag-line the date at which OSX will outnumber Vista on new devices by, and I'm gonna choose just 2 years from today.


950 million phones sold last year , roughly 240 million computers sold (that included apples share and linux).
The OS battle does not lie in traditional computers.

[BornAgainMac]

Jobs said 10 million iPhones = 1% of the overall cell phone market at the time.

[stevegmu]

Both the iPhone and iPod touch need

Intel Silverthorne inside

to get the full

Mac OS X 10.5.1

And then Firewire and full-quality video out (wired and wireless).

Then the worldwide marketshare will be 50% or more.

How about an 8-core processor and 1TB storage, as well...

[gifford]

Never.

Are you game for a wager? :)

[stevegmu]

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista? Not long at this growth and the 3G phone hasn't even been released yet. And when it does.. whooooooosh

Im sure somebody will point out the recent growth of Vista , problem is its not sustainable, whereas OSX has only just begun.

I think it already does in Japan.

[clevin]

At the current rate of growth less than 3 years.


950 million phones sold last year , roughly 240 million computers sold (that included apples share and linux).
The OS battle does not lie in traditional computers.
vista reach 14% in one year, OX has 7.6% in 6 years, where comes your conclusion?

[John Purple]

Jobs said 10 million iPhones = 1% of the overall cell phone market at the time.

Yes, and Motorola has to quit the market with 41m sold! Long way to go for Apple.

[mainstreetmark]

On my recent trek around the right half of the US, I saw a ton of iPhones everywhere. I easily saw more iPhones in the last week than all the iPods I ever saw combined.

Of course, the observation is skewed: I notice iPhones. I don't notice Blackberries. People tend to hold the iPhone more than the iPod, or at the very least, use them more frequently than the iPod.

(Similarly, seems like most notebooks in the airport were a PB/MBP)

[gifford]

vista reach 14% in one year, OX has 7.6% in 6 years, where comes your conclusion?

I mean on new devices sold.

'up more than 43 percent from the three-month period ending September.'

[mohthom]

Wow . . . my maths-brain is tingling.

So . . . Apple at 28%

And this is more than Palm at 9% and Windows [other] at 21%???

9+21 = 30 . . . ?

And, stacking the odds in the favour of Apple . . .

8.49999 (8.5) + 20.49999 (20.5) = 29, which is still higher than the maximum Apple could have using any kind of rounding (28.49999 = 28.5%)

Apple appears to NOT have a higher share of the market than Palm and Windows, does it not?

[inkswamp]

Yes, and Motorola has to quit the market with 41m sold! Long way to go for Apple.

But weren't most of Motorola's offerings cheap phones that are given away as free or low-cost to new customers? The numbers are meaningless if Motorola wasn't actually earning anything from it. A company like Apple could conceivably sell fewer phones and earn more from it than someone like Motorola--exactly what they do in the computer market, come to think of it.

[kster]

congrats to :apple:

[Moonlight]

Handset Manufacturers, market stats Q4 2007
According to market watcher Strategy Analytics these are the results Q4 2007:
Nokia sold a staggering 133.5m mobiles
Samsung 46.4m
Motorola 40.9m
Sony Ericsson 30.8m
LG 23.7m
Apple shifted 2.3m iPhones

Market share remains as follows:
Nokia 40.2% market share, the highest in its history
Samsung 14%
Motorola 12.3%
Sony Ericsson 9.3%
LG 7.1%
Apple 0.6%

Overall: 332m mobile phones shipped in Q4 2007
(source Strategy Analytics)




"Nokia sold a staggering 133.5m mobiles"


But

"Apple shifted 2.3m iPhones"

No bias there :rolleyes:

[seppoj]

"Nokia sold a staggering 133.5m mobiles"


But

"Apple shifted 2.3m iPhones"

No bias there :rolleyes:

Did not want to change researcher´s take on the statistics ;)

[ryan.axiom]

The statement does not include the word combined.

That's what you are looking at. The statement was that .28>.09 and .28>.21. Both of which are true.

It is not true (and not stated) that the iPhone marketshare is bigger than the combined marketshare of Palm and Windows Mobile device vendors.

[stevegmu]

But weren't most of Motorola's offerings cheap phones that are given away as free or low-cost to new customers? The numbers are meaningless if Motorola wasn't actually earning anything from it. A company like Apple could conceivably sell fewer phones and earn more from it than someone like Motorola--exactly what they do in the computer market, come to think of it.

Exactly. If the iPhone were free, or $50, then they would 'outsell' Motorolla pretty quick.

[Moonlight]

Did not want to change researcher´s take on the statistics ;)

The "researcher" either loves nokia, or has nokia stock... Reporting like that makes me mad :mad:

[ZacUSNYR]

If they added 3G to it - they could add another sale :D

[HailToTheVictor]

Are we talking OSX, meaning all versions? or just 10.5? If it is the whole series compared to vista, it might be actually close...

[tarant24a]

Funny that Steve Ballmer said that the iphone would never get a significant share of the smart phone market April 07

[Moonlight]

Funny that Steve Ballmer said that the iphone would never get a significant share of the smart phone market April 07

Yep, he is a moron

[seppoj]

The "researcher" either loves nokia, or has nokia stock... Reporting like that makes me mad :mad:

Well, ABI Research is not much better : "As Motorola continued to suffer from a weak device portfolio, Nokia sold 134 million handsets for a record 40 per cent share. Apple came in slightly below expectations, shipping 2.3 million units for a 0.6 per cent worldwide share."

[deathshrub]

Both the iPhone and iPod touch need

Intel Silverthorne inside

to get the full

Mac OS X 10.5.1

And then Firewire and full-quality video out (wired and wireless).

Then the worldwide marketshare will be 50% or more.

Nice trolling.

[kornyboy]

Wirelessly posted (iPhone: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A93 Safari/419.3)

Wow . . . my maths-brain is tingling.

So . . . Apple at 28%

And this is more than Palm at 9% and Windows [other] at 21%???

9+21 = 30 . . . ?

And, stacking the odds in the favour of Apple . . .

8.49999 (8.5) + 20.49999 (20.5) = 29, which is still higher than the maximum Apple could have using any kind of rounding (28.49999 = 28.5%)

Apple appears to NOT have a higher share of the market than Palm and Windows, does it not?

They were not saying Palm and Windows Mobile Devices combined. They were talking about all of the devices that use Windows Mobile combined make up 21%. So the comparison was 28% vs. 21%, stating that the iPhone is ahead. I initially thought the same thing.

[inkswamp]

Funny that Steve Ballmer said that the iphone would never get a significant share of the smart phone market April 07

Not by any stretch am I a fan of Steve Ballmer, but let's be fair. He said that back when the iPhone was more expensive and before a lot of the final details about the phone's quality and features were known. I think if the iPhone were still available for the original price without all the features and quality-enhancements that were made public at the last-minute, Ballmer's prediction would have pretty much been dead-on accurate.

[milo]

I don't want to take anything away from Apple because this is a significant success for them, but originally they were talking in terms of simply gaining 1% of the overall cell phone market, not isolating numbers by looking at the smart phone market only. Where does this put them in terms of the overall cell phone market? I'm betting they're still under 1%.

Their goal was 1% of all sales during calendar year 2008.

They estimated 1 billion total market, meaning 1% would require selling 10 million during the year 2008. So far they seem on track to do that easily, they should make the 1% unless the total market is considerably higher than the billion estimated.

This is simply a different comparison, it doesn't mean they're shying away from the other one.

100 years?

Never say never. Especially when the flavors of windows seem to be flopping on anything but regular old PCs while handheld devices with OSX are taking off. I suspect before long all iPods will run OSX in addition to the aTV and additional devices down the road. It's a long shot, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Of course, it's an odd comparison since you're comparing one generation of windows against all generations of OSX - vista will only be selling for a few years anyway. Looks like you're just looking at computers and ignoring phones and iPods running OSX?

Not by any stretch am I a fan of Steve Ballmer, but let's be fair. He said that back when the iPhone was more expensive and before a lot of the final details about the phone's quality and features were known. I think if the iPhone were still available for the original price without all the features and quality-enhancements that were made public at the last-minute, Ballmer's prediction would have pretty much been dead-on accurate.

What's not fair? He knew that prices would probably drop, and features added. He made a "never" prediction - knowing all the facts or not, that's pretty boneheaded.

[chicagostars]

If they added 3G to it - they could add another sale :D

And then all of the complaints about no WiMax will start pouring in! :D

[gvegastiger]

Comparing Apple's market share to Nokia's is a joke. Apple doesn't even try to compete in the same space that Nokia does. Compare Apple to Nokia in the smartphone market and thats a better comparison.

Last I head Apple wanted to sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008 representing (at the time) 1% of the cell phone market. They were at 4 million last I heard.

[milo]

Last I head Apple wanted to sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008 representing (at the time) 1% of the cell phone market. They were at 4 million last I heard.

Actually that's 10 million DURING 2008. They'll hit 10 million total way sooner than the end of the year.

[rxse7en]

On my recent trek around the right half of the US, I saw a ton of iPhones everywhere. I easily saw more iPhones in the last week than all the iPods I ever saw combined.

Of course, the observation is skewed: I notice iPhones. I don't notice Blackberries. People tend to hold the iPhone more than the iPod, or at the very least, use them more frequently than the iPod.

(Similarly, seems like most notebooks in the airport were a PB/MBP)

See any Zunes?
BTW, eat it Ballmer! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5oGaZIKYvo

[Kar98]

Wow. Who saw that coming? 'Cause I certainly didn't. I was thinking 20% absolute tops.

Well, and what's the iPhone's marketshare not on "smartphones", but on PDA phones? :rolleyes:

[inkswamp]

What's not fair? He knew that prices would probably drop, and features added. He made a "never" prediction - knowing all the facts or not, that's pretty boneheaded.

Maybe he words things badly, but go back and look at his quote. He specifically pointed out the price as the main issue. His point was that the price of the iPhone was going to be a hindrance to its sales. Given that Apple dropped the price so soon after the iPhone's announcement, I would say Ballmer was exactly right.

Again, I'm not a fan of the guy, but the way some Apple fans seem so eager to hang that quote around his neck like an albatross is embarrassing. He was right. The price was a problem.

To me, that quote is embarrassing for him for entirely different reasons. The way he said it sounded really dismissive of a competitor that they have learned is not to be underestimated anymore. Secondly, that fakey humor he exhibits when he talks about competition gives off a vaguely desperate and defensive tone--not a very becoming quality for the CEO of the biggest software company on the planet.

I always feel sorry for MS employees. Ballmer must be like that crazy uncle every family has to suffer through on every holiday, the one you tolerate because he's your uncle, but still, you wish he would just shut up. :p

[harperb]

All's I can say is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5oGaZIKYvo

:-D

[gifford]

I think if the iPhone were still available for the original price without all the features and quality-enhancements that were made public at the last-minute, Ballmer's prediction would have pretty much been dead-on accurate.

yes, but to anyone with an ounce of common sense (which balmer has none) it should have been obvious that the price drops and extra features were to appear.

[xStep]

Are we talking OSX, meaning all versions? or just 10.5? If it is the whole series compared to vista, it might be actually close...
People are talking about OS X on iPhone, OS X on iPod Touch, OS X on Apple TV and OS X Leopard which runs on 'regular' computers. Vista only operates on 'regular' computers. This gives Apple the potential to outsell devices running their OS X over devices running Vista. That could mean a larger part of the market recognizes the OS X brand and Apple continues to gain market share from that knowledge.

How many average buyers currently know that OS X runs on all of those other devices. They just know Apple makes cool devices and the number one selling music player. If Apple can educate the public that the OS X platform is a positive over its competitors in the markets it is selling to, it could help with their market share gains even further.

Some see this as the beginning of one platform on all device classes. From the smallest handheld to the super computer. You could say that BSD Unix and Linux have already been there, but that fact tends to be hidden and the products not as user friendly, so far. In a few years from now, Apple maybe able to offer the consumer and corporate buyers a friendly usable computer in all sizes with the full install of OS X. Oh, and developers will write their code once, with the exception of user interface extensions to account for.

In 2015 I'll have the full power I want for a home computer and will use my iPhone when away from home. I'll roll out my keyboard and mouse pad if I want to do some real work in iWork or the corporate database application, and yes, even edit an iMovie, but most of the time I'll be happy using the basics of web browsing, e-mail, music playback and phone calls. And syncing will be at an all time high of usability too. :D

[RZetlin]

Is Steve Ballmer still laughing? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5oGaZIKYvo) :)

[milo]

Well, and what's the iPhone's marketshare not on "smartphones", but on PDA phones? :rolleyes:

So what's the difference?

Maybe he words things badly, but go back and look at his quote. He specifically pointed out the price as the main issue. His point was that the price of the iPhone was going to be a hindrance to its sales. Given that Apple dropped the price so soon after the iPhone's announcement, I would say Ballmer was exactly right.

"It's sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody. Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

Not "...unless they lower the price". He made a prediction, and in hindsight, it turned out to be idiotic. Maybe he was assuming that the price wouldn't drop (a monumentally stupid assumption if that was the case). Maybe that's why MS missed the boat on MP3 players so bad, they thought the iPod would never catch on because they forgot that prices would go down and features/capacities go up over time.

Many people here (myself included) said that they wouldn't sell a ton at $499...but we realized that that's an early adopter price and that sales would go up as the price dropped. It's not rocket science.

However you want to spin it, he was wrong. Period. Maybe he'll be more careful in the future with what he says. But I doubt it.

[diamond.g]

People are talking about OS X on iPhone, OS X on iPod Touch, OS X on Apple TV and OS X Leopard which runs on 'regular' computers. Vista only operates on 'regular' computers. This gives Apple the potential to outsell devices running their OS X over devices running Vista. That could mean a larger part of the market recognizes the OS X brand and Apple continues to gain market share from that knowledge.
That seems like an unfair comparison, as the version of OS X my iPhone is running is a stripped down (read: different) version of OS X than what my Macbook is using.
But,
[judge mills lane from celebrity deathmatch] I'll allow it![judge mills lane from celebrity deathmatch]
As it enables me to sleep easier at night.

[AidenShaw]

That seems like an unfair comparison, as the version of OS X my iPhone is running is a stripped down (read: different) version of OS X than what my Macbook is using.


To be fair, then all versions of Windows should be counted as well - Windows 4.0, Windows 5.0, Windows 5.1, Windows 6.0, Windows CE, Windows Mobile, ...

There's probably as big a gap between OSX 10.0 and 10.5 as there is between Windows 5.0 and Windows 6.0.

[ungraphic]

http://www.ungraphic.com/stuff/steve_bigbrother_jobs.jpg

Anyone remember apple's macintosh commercial in 1984, opposing Big Brother? The more I see apple products plastered everywhere, the more I feel like violently launching my mac out my window.

[BongoBanger]

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista on new devices? Not long at this growth and the 3G phone hasn't even been released yet. And when it does.. whooooooosh

Im sure somebody will point out the recent growth of Vista , problem is its not sustainable, whereas OSX has only just begun.

Thank you for giving me the biggest laugh of the day.

[Cleverboy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple has 1% of the market for phones that are not free. I saw a kid on Heelees at the mall with one last week. I was using one in the drive-through at MacDonald's and the kid behind the register had one... back when they cost $600 no less.

~ CB

[cschulz]

How do you guys feel about this:
http://gizmodo.com/341287/windows-mobile-7-details-leaked-+-multi+touch-motion-gestures
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/06/is-this-windows-mobile-7/

It looks as though MSFT is looking to make a copy of the iPhone, which is pretty much expected. I'm so disappointed in MSFT. They're just so pathetic... But I don't think it'll be out for atleast another year. Apple should be way ahead while they're catching up. Typical.

[milo]

How do you guys feel about this:
http://gizmodo.com/341287/windows-mobile-7-details-leaked-+-multi+touch-motion-gestures
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/06/is-this-windows-mobile-7/

It looks as though MSFT is looking to make a copy of the iPhone, which is pretty much expected. I'm so disappointed in MSFT. They're just so pathetic... But I don't think it'll be out for atleast another year. Apple should be way ahead while they're catching up. Typical.

And it's only going to take them until 2009 to get it out. Nah, the iPhone won't have improved at all by then...

[ungraphic]

How do you guys feel about this:
http://gizmodo.com/341287/windows-mobile-7-details-leaked-+-multi+touch-motion-gestures
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/06/is-this-windows-mobile-7/

It looks as though MSFT is looking to make a copy of the iPhone, which is pretty much expected. I'm so disappointed in MSFT. They're just so pathetic... But I don't think it'll be out for atleast another year. Apple should be way ahead while they're catching up. Typical.

Has competition ever been a bad thing for YOU, the consumer? Or would you rather live in a one dimensional world infested and overwhelmed by a single dominating force without alternatives?

Yah, go <insert random company name here> and take 100% control of the entire market and then screw over the consumer by having a closed system.

[gifford]

Thank you for giving me the biggest laugh of the day.

not everyone is blessed with foresight

read xStep's post above, he gets it.

[BongoBanger]

And it's only going to take them until 2009 to get it out. Nah, the iPhone won't have improved at all by then...

I don't think MS are the competition. I suspect Nokia, SE and the rest will have models out long before then.

[BongoBanger]

not everyone is blessed with foresight

read xStep's post above, he gets it.

Not everyone is blessed with an understanding of the markets either. You can speculate all you want but Apple are still a niche player worldwide. You really should look at the market share reports before making silly statements.

Also, as others have pointed out, xStep is incorrect because he implies that the version of OSX used on each device is homogeneous which they're not in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't the same as Windows Vista.

[twoodcc]

wow, that is very good numbers. hopefully they'll continue to grow

[gifford]

Not everyone is blessed with an understanding of the markets either. You can speculate all you want but Apple are still a niche player worldwide. You really should look at the market share reports before making silly statements.

You realize that if Apple can get just 10% of mobile phone sales, OSX will be more prevalent than windows full stop? Lets not forget every iPhone, every AppleTV, every other lifestyle device on the cards will have OSX running. Lets not forget that Apple are currently only selling iPhones to a small proportion of the planet. Lets not forget that Apples traditional computers and laptops are slowly eating away at windows market share.


Lets not forget the fact that technology moves on (most people in my experience have a great difficulty here), all those lifestyle devices become more powerful and become proper computers in their own right, through the back door Apple has created one of the widest used OS's on the planet.
And lets not forget that prices come down! Markets that are unthinkable now will be fully attainable tomorrow, products similar to the iPhone will eventually be affordable to the masses.

[Kar98]

Has competition ever been a bad thing for YOU, the consumer?

Durrr, of course. When the manufacturers compete on producing things cheaper and/or fall into featuritis, rather than producing a superior product.

Doc Marten's competes with Walmart brand shoes, and the result is Doc Martens produces shoddy crap in China, rather than quality boots made in England.

Computer manufacturers move their customer support to India, to get a better profit margin than their competition, the result is useless tech support. Apple tried that too a year or so ago, except they're small enough to be bullied into reversing that decision, which they did.

VW's Lopez tried to stay competitive by buying the cheapest components possible, and forced suppliers into producing cheaper yet. The result was 60% decrease in market share on the US market, because the product was plain garbage.

Do you have any other questions? :D

[diamond.g]

You realize that if Apple can get just 10% of mobile phone sales, OSX will be more prevalent than windows full stop? Lets not forget every iPhone, every AppleTV, every other lifestyle device on the cards will have OSX running.


EDIT: Until OS X is found on more than just Apple devices it won't matter.

[milo]

Has competition ever been a bad thing for YOU, the consumer? Or would you rather live in a one dimensional world infested and overwhelmed by a single dominating force without alternatives?

True competition is a good thing. What is best for the consumer is when a company sees a product and figures out a way to top it.

MS doesn't do that much, they just copycat existing products. And they do it way late. That really doesn't have any benefit for the consumer.

Not everyone is blessed with an understanding of the markets either. You can speculate all you want but Apple are still a niche player worldwide. You really should look at the market share reports before making silly statements.

Also, as others have pointed out, xStep is incorrect because he implies that the version of OSX used on each device is homogeneous which they're not in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't the same as Windows Vista.

Apple is a niche player with iPods? And with the results apple has seen in such a short time with the iPhone, you think apple will remain a niche player in that market?

And xStep doesn't imply that the version of OSX is the same, you're reading something that isn't there.

You realize that if Apple can get just 10% of mobile phone sales, OSX will be more prevalent than windows full stop?

Is 10% realistic? Especially when so many phones are just the cheapest most basic ones, often given away free? What percentage of the phone market is smartphones?

[Antares]

Thank you for giving me the biggest laugh of the day.

Why was what he said funny? :confused:

Anyway, yay for these numbers. It only help ensure Apple will push to further develop the iPhone and future iPhone-like devices. :)

[diamond.g]

I wish Apple would have the same market share MS has (overall). I really want to see how the Cupertino company would handle themselves with that much power. It would also be interesting to see if Apple develops monopolistic practices to keep that market lead.

[gifford]

EDIT: Until OS X is found on more than just Apple devices it won't matter.
Why ? a few years down the line, the 'popular' OS wont be windows, nor OSX, its highly likely to be Android.
Apple can survive in an android dominated world, windows declines.

As I said on another thread, I would hazard a guess that the most popular OS is currently not windows and most probably Symbian, which if you dont know, is a mobile OS. IMO it wont survive the push towards 'smarter' phones.

[diamond.g]

Why ? a few years down the line, the 'popular' OS wont be windows, nor OSX, its highly likely to be Android.
Apple can survive in an android dominated world, windows declines.

Maybe, and most likely that will because Google will make sure it runs on as many devices as possible. Apple could be in the same position as Google, if they were to embrace different kinds of hardware. Beside it would show the world that Apple can write to as many kinds of hardware as MS did and still have a smooth non bloated OS. (Well that and cause I wanna run OS X on my home built PC)

[compuguy1088]

On my recent trek around the right half of the US, I saw a ton of iPhones everywhere. I easily saw more iPhones in the last week than all the iPods I ever saw combined.

Of course, the observation is skewed: I notice iPhones. I don't notice Blackberries. People tend to hold the iPhone more than the iPod, or at the very least, use them more frequently than the iPod.

(Similarly, seems like most notebooks in the airport were a PB/MBP)

At the college campus I go to, I seem to see more iphones (on average) than other smartphones combined (blackjack, q, blackberry). It is suprising to me :eek:.

Note: I own a iPhone

[BongoBanger]

You realize that if Apple can get just 10% of mobile phone sales, OSX will be more prevalent than windows full stop?

If Apple get 10% of all mobile phone sales it won't be through the iPhone because the market isn't geared to that volume. Apple would have to sell cheaper handsets which may not be powered by OSX.

Lets not forget every iPhone, every AppleTV, every other lifestyle device on the cards will have OSX running.

Every Apple device will be but since that's a small share of the market it's a meaningless statement.

Lets not forget that Apple are currently only selling iPhones to a small proportion of the planet.

The iPhone is on sale in the US, the UK, France and Germany all of which are key markets. The sales in Europe - which is a far, far different market from the US - have been nothing to write home about and there is nothing to suggest that this would be any different in the other mature markets.

Lets not forget that Apples traditional computers and laptops are slowly eating away at windows market share.

Actually, they're not. In North America Apple increased market share to 6.1% with a 28% jump in sales which sounds impressive until you realise that HP has 31.1% of the market and Dell 26.1%. However, it's not that impressive when you realise that North America is only the third largest market in the world and Apple hardly register in the global market which HP is leading with 18.2% of the market and sales increase of 30%.

In other words, HP sold more than 20 times as many units than Apple globally and they still had less than 20% of the market.

So, no, it's not going to overtake Windows anytime soon unless you can get OSX to run on other people's hardware without a hack.

Lets not forget the fact that technology moves on (most people in my experience have a great difficulty here)

You seem to be having great difficulty in understanding market dynamics. Sure, technology moves on but the only way an OS will dominate is if can be used by many different manufacturers. As Apple have kept OSX proprietary this will not happen.

all those lifestyle devices become more powerful and become proper computers in their own right, through the back door Apple has created one of the widest used OS's on the planet.

Once again, no. You're confusing 'North America' and 'the planet' here. Your numbers don't stack up.

And lets not forget that prices come down! Markets that are unthinkable now will be fully attainable tomorrow, products similar to the iPhone will eventually be affordable to the masses.

Yup, and there will be scores of competing products.

Don't get me wrong, I like OSX but you're just being silly here because it's not about what's the best OS, it's about what's the most available.

[ungraphic]

Durrr, of course. When the manufacturers compete on producing things cheaper and/or fall into featuritis, rather than producing a superior product.

Doc Marten's competes with Walmart brand shoes, and the result is Doc Martens produces shoddy crap in China, rather than quality boots made in England.

Computer manufacturers move their customer support to India, to get a better profit margin than their competition, the result is useless tech support. Apple tried that too a year or so ago, except they're small enough to be bullied into reversing that decision, which they did.

VW's Lopez tried to stay competitive by buying the cheapest components possible, and forced suppliers into producing cheaper yet. The result was 60% decrease in market share on the US market, because the product was plain garbage.

Do you have any other questions? :D

Yes, I do have another question.

Why is it that you seem to think the only way to 'win' is by having a cheaper product? And why is it that you seem to think competition amongst manufacturers means the consumer losing out. Also, why are you so hung up on a company winning over a product and its market share? Are you one of those that wears an Apple T-Shirt out in public, has that sticker that ships with every mac plastered on your cars bumper, twice (because it comes in two?).

You obviously failed to see the point I was making. How do any of those things that you pointed out have anything to do with the consumer having a better overall product in the long run?

[gifford]

Maybe, and most likely that will because Google will make sure it runs on as many devices as possible. Apple could be in the same position as Google, if they were to embrace different kinds of hardware. Beside it would show the world that Apple can write to as many kinds of hardware as MS did and still have a smooth non bloated OS. (Well that and cause I wanna run OS X on my home built PC)

Apples strategy is to provide order within chaos, to take the 10%-30% who are willing to pay a premium for style and cutting edge technology. It would be more profitable, for them to continue their current path.

[milo]

Actually, they're not. In North America Apple increased market share to 6.1% with a 28% jump in sales which sounds impressive until you realise that HP has 31.1% of the market and Dell 26.1%. However, it's not that impressive when you realise that North America is only the third largest market in the world and Apple hardly register in the global market which HP is leading with 18.2% of the market and sales increase of 30%.

In other words, HP sold more than 20 times as many units than Apple globally and they still had less than 20% of the market.

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. Apple IS gaining market share on windows in the USA, although slowly. Are you saying they're not making any gain worldwide? I doubt that.

[diamond.g]

Apples strategy is to provide order within chaos, to take the 10%-30% who are willing to pay a premium for style and cutting edge technology. It would be more profitable, for them to continue their current path.
EDIT: nevermind...

[BongoBanger]

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. Apple IS gaining market share on windows in the USA, although slowly. Are you saying they're not making any gain worldwide? I doubt that.

gifford's original statement was:

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista on new devices? Not long at this growth and the 3G phone hasn't even been released yet. And when it does.. whooooooosh

Given the market data I posted, clearly OSX isn't going to outnumber Vista on new devices anytime soon. The fact Apple have made some gains in the US is nice but largely irrelevant to global sales where they're still weak and not making the gains that the likes of HP and Acer are.

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

[milo]

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

I was referring to your "Actually, they're not" which sounded like you were disputing that apple is gaining market share over windows. They definitely are in the USA, I don't know about worldwide but I suspect they are overseas as well.

[justflie]

Good for them! That was fast. Hopefully this will encourage developers to really have at it when the SDK is released. PLEASE figure out how to support WPA2 Enterprise TLS!!!

[gifford]

If Apple get 10% of all mobile phone sales it won't be through the iPhone because the market isn't geared to that volume. Apple would have to sell cheaper handsets which may not be powered by OSX.

Processor speeds increase prices come down, OSX will fit into whatever common device you throw at it soon.


Every Apple device will be but since that's a small share of the market it's a meaningless statement.

...at the moment , I'm speculating on the future here. And small market share, are you sure 100,000,000 iPods is a fairly large number, n million iPhones that already are one of the biggest players in smartphones.
PS: almost ALL phones will be smart phones over the next few years.


The iPhone is on sale in the US, the UK, France and Germany all of which are key markets. The sales in Europe - which is a far, far different market from the US - have been nothing to write home about and there is nothing to suggest that this would be any different in the other mature markets.


Europe is waiting for 3g, watch what happen when it is released over the next few months.
Also, the world does not revolve around the west, there are 4.5 billion people in asia alone. With ever increasing wealth.


So, no, it's not going to overtake Windows anytime soon unless you can get OSX to run on other people's hardware without a hack.


If apple can eventually take 10% - 20% of all digital lifestyle devices which require an OS, they will be more profitable than msft who currently owns 90%. Much more money in the premium market as a quick comparison with dell shows, its not all about how many computers you chuckmout the door.


You seem to be having great difficulty in understanding market dynamics. Sure, technology moves on but the only way an OS will dominate is if can be used by many different manufacturers. As Apple have kept OSX proprietary this will not happen.

No I dont, thats a similar kind of mindset to dell, I dont think you understand apple's strategy. I have a long history of backing technology that the majority initially thought was stupid or went against traditional market dynamics. And I'm sure I will be proved correct again.


Once again, no. You're confusing 'North America' and 'the planet' here. Your numbers don't stack up.

No I'm not, I was talking about the future when apple ipod products run solely on OSX.


Yup, and there will be scores of competing products.


Ah finally we agree on something! Yes there will be scores of competing products, but very few will be windows, which is what my whole point is about. Unix is the future. And apple will take the cream.

[MacFly123]

Not by any stretch am I a fan of Steve Ballmer, but let's be fair. He said that back when the iPhone was more expensive and before a lot of the final details about the phone's quality and features were known. I think if the iPhone were still available for the original price without all the features and quality-enhancements that were made public at the last-minute, Ballmer's prediction would have pretty much been dead-on accurate.

Either way you look at it that is called a LACK OF VISION. He should especially expect those things being the C.E.O. of a tech company and knowing how things work and progress. But then again Microsoft doesn't work and progress like Apple ;)

[gifford]

gifford's original statement was:

Given the market data I posted, clearly OSX isn't going to outnumber Vista on new devices anytime soon. The fact Apple have made some gains in the US is nice but largely irrelevant to global sales where they're still weak and not making the gains that the likes of HP and Acer are.

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.

PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...

[Kar98]

You obviously failed to see the point I was making.

You failed to see the point /I/ was making. Competition doesn't necessarily, always mean yay, the consumer wins. I did not say it's always the consumer losing at all. That was your own hyperbole. So, while you're beating on the strawman you've put up, you might as well keep playing with yourself.

Also, why are you so hung up on a company winning over a product and its market share?

I'm not. Apple is. OMGWTFBBQ we've got 28% marketshare on the smartphone market (if we're ignoring the 40 million devices that HTC and others are selling and just count the non-touch screen half-wit phones).

Now go and play with yourself.

[BongoBanger]

Processor speeds increase prices come down, OSX will fit into whatever common device you throw at it soon.

You're missing the point. Unless Apple make it available to other hardware manufacturers then it will never eclipse Microsoft's operating systems on PCs.

...at the moment , I'm speculating on the future here.

Anyone can do that, it's meaningless though.

And small market share, are you sure 100,000,000 iPods is a fairly large number

Absolutely, the iPod dominates that market, however it's a totally different market from mobile communications where there is already an established pecking order so it's not really a relevant comparison.

n million iPhones that already are one of the biggest players in smartphones.

Well... sort of. In comparison I'd point out the Nokia N95 sold six million units to the iPhone's 4 million last year though.

PS: almost ALL phones will be smart phones over the next few years.

Not necessarily and even so it doesn't follow that they will all use a particular OS.

Europe is waiting for 3g, watch what happen when it is released over the next few months.

Europe has 3G and it also has a lot of phones that use it. However, 3G in itself wasn't why the iPhone didn't sell as well as it could. That was more down to pricing, being tied to a provider and lack of feature set than anything else.

Also, the world does not revolve around the west, there are 4.5 billion people in asia alone. With ever increasing wealth.

Yes, they're the second biggest computer market and HP and Dell dominate it. I do know the markets, you know.

If apple can eventually take 10% - 20% of all digital lifestyle devices which require an OS, they will be more profitable than msft who currently owns 90%.

If, if, if. However they won't unless OSX is released to other hardware manufacturers and then it's not about Apple hardware, it's about an Apple OS.

Much more money in the premium market as a quick comparison with dell shows, its not all about how many computers you chuckmout the door.

Nope, but sales volumes do count. HP's revenue was up over 10% in 2007 with profits in excess of $9 billion. They continue to grow at that rate.

No I dont, thats a similar kind of mindset to dell, I dont think you understand apple's strategy.

I do. It's not to dominate the mass market.

I have a long history of backing technology that the majority initially thought was stupid or went against traditional market dynamics. And I'm sure I will be proved correct again.

Sorry, not this time because mass market simply isn't Apple's strategy.

No I'm not, I was talking about the future when apple ipod products run solely on OSX.

This has what to do with anything though? Most people don't buy PCs to match their mp3 players. Yes they'll use a variant of OSX but it won't be the same one that runs the Mac.

Ah finally we agree on something! Yes there will be scores of competing products, but very few will be windows, which is what my whole point is about. Unix is the future. And apple will take the cream.

I doubt it for the simple reason Apple is proprietary and Microsoft so dominant.

[BongoBanger]

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.

PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...

I see the point you're making about OSX outnumbering Vista devices but you can't just compare one aspect of Microsoft's operating systems to all of OSX. Vista is an operating system for PCs, just as Leopard is an operating system for Macs. Lumping Leopard and the cut down version of OSX together as a homogeneous entity is kind of daft because they're not the same in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't Vista.

So to be clear, when I talk about 'devices' I'm referring to PCs because that's what Vista runs on. As such its competitor in that market is Leopard, not generic OSX.

[gifford]

You're missing the point. Unless Apple make it available to other hardware manufacturers then it will never eclipse Microsoft's operating systems on PCs.


[QUOTE=BongoBanger;4903833]
Anyone can do that, it's meaningless though.

Not everyone can speculate with accuracy, and its accurate speculation that keeps apple ahead of the game, is that meaningless?


Absolutely, the iPod dominates that market, however it's a totally different market from mobile communications where there is already an established pecking order so it's not really a relevant comparison.

I dont think apple gives a crap about pecking order!!


Europe has 3G and it also has a lot of phones that use it. However, 3G in itself wasn't why the iPhone didn't sell as well as it could. That was more down to pricing, being tied to a provider and lack of feature set than anything else.

i know, i live in europe and have owned a 3G phone for years. people are waiting for the second revision , and one of the main functions they 'think' it lacks is 3G. Though my experience of 3G would say the iphone aint really missing out on much at all.


Yes, they're the second biggest computer market and HP and Dell dominate it. I do know the markets, you know.

yes but you seem unable or unwilling to see future markets or anything other than the here and now. asia in short space of time will be no1


Sorry, not this time because mass market simply isn't Apple's strategy.

You getting what im saying wrong. I dont think apple will eventually be THE mass market provider, android and other unix variants will take that crown. Also remember the game is changing the OS will simply be a platform to the web, apple could be (kinda already is) the sony(of the 20th century) of the digital lifestyle era. Until unix variants gain momentum apple could well be a mass market player as they have been in the mp3 industry.


This has what to do with anything though? Most people don't buy PCs to match their mp3 players. Yes they'll use a variant of OSX but it won't be the same one that runs the Mac.

very short sighted statement. ipod is ANOTHER back door to mobile computing.


I doubt it for the simple reason Apple is proprietary and Microsoft so dominant.
apple isnt the only unix based os.


It has been lovely talking to you, but my hands are on fire due to RSI and i litterally cant type anymore :eek:

please forgive my spelling and english i really am in much pain,

[gifford]

I see the point you're making about OSX outnumbering Vista devices but you can't just compare one aspect of Microsoft's operating systems to all of OSX. Vista is an operating system for PCs, just as Leopard is an operating system for Macs. Lumping Leopard and the cut down version of OSX together as a homogeneous entity is kind of daft because they're not the same in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't Vista.

So to be clear, when I talk about 'devices' I'm referring to PCs because that's what Vista runs on. As such its competitor in that market is Leopard, not generic OSX.

one last comment:
Vista i agree was originally a bad one to compare with on my behalf , i was looking for something to compare which reflected new devices sold,
'new Windows devices' would have been a better choice

[xStep]

To be fair, then all versions of Windows should be counted as well - Windows 4.0, Windows 5.0, Windows 5.1, Windows 6.0, Windows CE, Windows Mobile, ...

There's probably as big a gap between OSX 10.0 and 10.5 as there is between Windows 5.0 and Windows 6.0.
Not at all. We are talking about products currently being sold and future sales. Not the past.

[Syrus28]

Not at all. We are talking about products currently being sold and future sales. Not the past.

Howso? Does apple not count how many iPod Videos/Nanos of previous generation when counting total iPod sales? Do we not count Tiger in market share of Mac OS X?

[xStep]

Not everyone is blessed with an understanding of the markets either. You can speculate all you want but Apple are still a niche player worldwide. You really should look at the market share reports before making silly statements.

Also, as others have pointed out, xStep is incorrect because he implies that the version of OSX used on each device is homogeneous which they're not in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't the same as Windows Vista.
I never said that they _are_ homogeneous versions of OS X. Apple has stripped things out of the current 'non computer' devices. But hey, I will say it; Apple is working with a homogeneous (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/homogeneous) (common/like) code base from the core to the windowing system and that allows them to bring the OS X versions closer together in the future. Sure there are some differences. What really matters is how the user and developers see things, not the internal low level coding differences. This isn't the first time the OS X derivative has been ported to a new platform, it has occurred at least a half dozen times since it was referred to OpenStep.

From the little I've seen of Windows mobile, it looks like a bad fork from some distant version of Windows. I'd appreciate it if some developer who has coded for both could pipe up here to describe their porting experience between the two. We have yet to see how development will actually work between the big cat version of OS X and the smaller i-devices of OS X.

As far as those market share reports go, who cares. They are talking about the past and perhaps the immediate present. The future is unwritten. Apple could go nonproprietary, Microsoft could actually make a superior product, Nokia could trip, and someone in a garage could still surprise us all. As for me, I don't really care about market share beyond the need to give me a better experience with these tools.

It's been fun, but apparently I need to go off and be terribly sick now. :mad:

[Syrus28]

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.
This discussion supports and also hurts your point. While Vista is no where near 90% market share, it is growing at a rate far much faster than anything Apple is selling, let alone Mac OS X. Its estimated to have sold 100 million licenses. Now licenses doesn't translate into market share. Vista still gained a higher market share [10.47%] in 8 months than Mac OS X has in 7 years [7.31%]

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.
Actually, compared to the number of products that contain Windows, it makes them look even worse.

Xbox - 24 Million sold
Xbox 360 - 17.7 million sold
Vista - ~100 million sold
XP - at least 900 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

Now while these numbers are far from exact, but I think it does a good job of showing Windows is present on MANY more devices than Mac OS X. In fact, Microsoft estimates by the end of this year, there will be more Windows-based computers than there are CARS. Thats 1 billion+ devices with Windows [full version] on it.



PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...
No way in hell with the iPhone sell that many. If so, it would be on its way to become the best selling phone in history [Dethroning the Nokia 1100 which sold 200 million currently at <$60]. At a $400/$500 price point, it won't even get near the 100 million mark anytime soon. Hell, the Razr only sold 70 million, and they give those away for free.

Don't forget that the smart phone market share is not nearly as big as the total mobile phone market. Also, 46% of the smart phone market share is in China, where Microsoft doubled its sales from last year. The iPhone is missing from this market right now.

[xStep]

Howso? Does apple not count how many iPod Videos/Nanos of previous generation when counting total iPod sales? Do we not count Tiger in market share of Mac OS X?
When counting total sales from original release date, yes, but that isn't what is being discussed.

As I'm understanding the argument, we are talking about future sales. Someone suggested that the OS X platform will be selling in more numbers than the current version of Vista or 'new Windows devices'. So, say in the month of January of 2010, Apple will have sold more devices running OS X than Microsoft has sold running it's platform(s).

Even if that occurs, the Windos platform will still have a majority of the active market. It would take many more years to actually displace currently working Windows platforms. Hell, some people still use Microsofts DOS.

[Syrus28]

When counting total sales from original release date, yes, but that isn't what is being discussed.

As I'm understanding the argument, we are talking about future sales. Someone suggested that the OS X platform will be selling in more numbers than the current version of Vista or 'new Windows devices'. So, say in the month of January of 2010, Apple will have sold more devices running OS X than Microsoft has sold running it's platform(s).
Yes, I guess I misunderstood.

Even if that occurs, the Windows platform will still have a majority of the active market. It would take many more years to actually displace currently working Windows platforms. Hell, some people still use Microsofts DOS.
I would even argue that we will never see Mac OS X displace the Windows Platform. As long as both exist, that is. Let alone "in a few years" like some people are claiming.

[gifford]

This discussion supports and also hurts your point. While Vista is no where near 90% market share, it is growing at a rate far much faster than anything Apple is selling, let alone Mac OS X. Its estimated to have sold 100 million licenses. Now licenses doesn't translate into market share. Vista still gained a higher market share [10.47%] in 8 months than Mac OS X has in 7 years [7.31%]



You would make a great politician Syrus.


Actually, compared to the number of products that contain Windows, it makes them look even worse.

Xbox - 24 Million sold
Xbox 360 - 17.7 million sold
Vista - ~100 million sold
XP - at least 900 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]


I wasnt aware xbox, zune ran windows? on ibm chips? Not out the box, so im gonna discount those.

Getting back to the point (as your numbers often seem to meander from the point in question), we are talking about NEW devices.

so discount xp
we can keep zune in for fun if you like
we should really be comparing the following numbers...

Vista - ~100 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

though there is still legacy sales in mac AND vista which skew from the original talking point. vista most definitely did not sell 100mil on new machines.

Microsoft estimates by the end of this year, there will be more Windows-based computers than there are CARS. Thats 1 billion+ devices with Windows [full version] on it.



ahh im glad you mentioned the 1 billion mark, as that is how many phones are sold EVERY YEAR! Also you are talking historic data still.



No way in hell with the iPhone sell that many. If so, it would be on its way to become the best selling phone in history [Dethroning the Nokia 1100 which sold 200 million currently at <$60]. At a $400/$500 price point, it won't even get near the 100 million mark anytime soon. Hell, the Razr only sold 70 million, and they give those away for free.

Don't forget that the smart phone market share is not nearly as big as the total mobile phone market. Also, 46% of the smart phone market share is in China, where Microsoft doubled its sales from last year.

We shall see. I have set a countdown that will warn me to check the stats again in 2 years time(though i expect most significant changes in the third/forth year), if your still on this forum, til then.. :)

[inkswamp]

Not "...unless they lower the price". He made a prediction, and in hindsight, it turned out to be idiotic. Maybe he was assuming that the price wouldn't drop (a monumentally stupid assumption if that was the case).

He made his "prediction" based on what was known about the iPhone at the time. At the time, it was reasonable. A lot of people were saying that same thing. The iPhone was too expensive. The real problem is that a lot of Mac fans didn't want to hear someone like him pointing out such an obvious negative about the iPhone.

As far as accusing Ballmer of stupidity for an assumption that the price wouldn't drop, well, you may as well accuse everyone of stupidity for not predicting that Apple would drop the price so soon. That was a strange and inexplicable move on Apple's part and of course nobody saw that coming, including Ballmer. Apple hadn't sold enough iPhones by that point to justify a price drop so how do you explain it? If Apple had sold the iPhone for a year at the original price and had great success, then Ballmer would have been flat-out wrong. But what he said was right given what we knew at the time, that the iPhone wasn't going to gain much traction with that price. Apple all but admitted this with that bizarre price drop that, in fact, caught everyone totally off-guard (witness the outrage of the early adopters.)

Look, I'll reiterate: I think Ballmer is a lackluster leader for MS and probably not nearly as smart as many people assume and I think he's an embarrassing leader in a lot of ways. However, raking the guy over the coals for an accurate comment about the iPhone's price just because he didn't explicitly foresee and state an early and sudden price drop is just weird. :rolleyes:

[gifford]

He made his "prediction" based on what was known about the iPhone at the time. At the time, it was reasonable. A lot of people were saying that same thing. The iPhone was too expensive. The real problem is that a lot of Mac fans didn't want to hear someone like him pointing out such an obvious negative about the iPhone.

As far as accusing Ballmer of stupidity for an assumption that the price wouldn't drop, well, you may as well accuse everyone of stupidity for not predicting that Apple would drop the price so soon. That was a strange and inexplicable move on Apple's part and of course nobody saw that coming, including Ballmer. Apple hadn't sold enough iPhones by that point to justify a price drop so how do you explain it? If Apple had sold the iPhone for a year at the original price and had great success, then Ballmer would have been flat-out wrong. But what he said was right given what we knew at the time, that the iPhone wasn't going to gain much traction with that price. Apple all but admitted this with that bizarre price drop that, in fact, caught everyone totally off-guard (witness the outrage of the early adopters.)

Look, I'll reiterate: I think Ballmer is a lackluster leader for MS and probably not nearly as smart as many people assume and I think he's an embarrassing leader in a lot of ways. However, raking the guy over the coals for an accurate comment about the iPhone's price just because he didn't explicitly foresee and state an early and sudden price drop is just weird. :rolleyes:

One would hope balmer did know the device would drop in price, otherwise he really is 'megadumb'.
I expect he was just fishing for negative stuff to say about the competition as most heads of companies do when interviewed. He's not gonna exactly say "its great buy it"

[BongoBanger]

As far as those market share reports go, who cares. They are talking about the past and perhaps the immediate present. The future is unwritten. Apple could go nonproprietary, Microsoft could actually make a superior product, Nokia could trip, and someone in a garage could still surprise us all. As for me, I don't really care about market share beyond the need to give me a better experience with these tools.

And that's the problem. If we could all predict how the bloody markets would go we'd all be millionaires!

[diamond.g]

I have a long history of backing technology that the majority initially thought was stupid or went against traditional market dynamics. And I'm sure I will be proved correct again.


You backed HD DVD!!!! :eek: :D ;)

[winterspan]

Wirelessly posted (iPhone: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A93 Safari/419.3)

They were not saying Palm and Windows Mobile Devices combined. They were talking about all of the devices that use Windows Mobile combined make up 21%. So the comparison was 28% vs. 21%, stating that the iPhone is ahead. I initially thought the same thing.

You two are missing the fact that PALM IS A WINDOWS MOBILE DEVICE PRODUCER. I assume the 21% includes Palm as well. Or the analyst is an idiot for not doing so... sorry Im too lazy to actually loook at the article. :)

[diamond.g]

From the little I've seen of Windows mobile, it looks like a bad fork from some distant version of Windows. I'd appreciate it if some developer who has coded for both could pipe up here to describe their porting experience between the two. We have yet to see how development will actually work between the big cat version of OS X and the smaller i-devices of OS X.

Windows Mobile is based on XP, the Vista based version is supposed to be version 7. Microsoft claims they realize that Consumers are put off by the OS. Their initial concern was business folks (big suprise :rolleyes:). There was a post earlier that talked about WM7 (calling it a rip off of the iPhone OS) which may be true, but the main insider article was interesting.
You would make a great politician Syrus.


I wasnt aware xbox, zune ran windows? on ibm chips? Not out the box, so im gonna discount those.

Getting back to the point (as your numbers often seem to meander from the point in question), we are talking about NEW devices.

so discount xp
we can keep zune in for fun if you like
we should really be comparing the following numbers...

Vista - ~100 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

though there is still legacy sales in mac AND vista which skew from the original talking point. vista most definitely did not sell 100mil on new machines.

Xbox and the 360 both run a stripped down Windows kernel, just like how the iPhone runs a stripped down OS X kernel. You may want to revise your iPod numbers, there isn't 140 million OS X using iPods. I am not sure about the Zune though, I haven't seen or heard anything that points to it running a Windows kernel.

[gifford]

Windows Mobile is based on XP, the Vista based version is supposed to be version 7. Microsoft claims they realize that Consumers are put off by the OS. Their initial concern was business folks (big suprise :rolleyes:). There was a post earlier that talked about WM7 (calling it a rip off of the iPhone OS) which may be true, but the main insider article was interesting.

Xbox and the 360 both run a stripped down Windows kernel, just like how the iPhone runs a stripped down OS X kernel. You may want to revise your iPod numbers, there isn't 140 million OS X using iPods. I am not sure about the Zune though, I haven't seen or heard anything that points to it running a Windows kernel.

I was trying to suggest (as you say) those numbers are useless to the argument. i did not originally post them.

[tarant24a]

Funny....Steve Ballmer was quoted last May saying that the iphone would never gain a significant share of the smartphone market

[diamond.g]

I was trying to suggest (as you say) those numbers are useless to the argument. i did not originally post them.

Ah, fair enough. :)

[Kar98]

Windows Mobile is based on XP

No, it's not. It's based on Windows CE, currently 6.0, and it doesn't have anything to do with XP, which is based on Windows NT.

[goosnarrggh]

You would make a great politician Syrus.


I wasnt aware xbox, zune ran windows? on ibm chips? Not out the box, so im gonna discount those.

Getting back to the point (as your numbers often seem to meander from the point in question), we are talking about NEW devices.

so discount xp
we can keep zune in for fun if you like
we should really be comparing the following numbers...

Vista - ~100 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

though there is still legacy sales in mac AND vista which skew from the original talking point. vista most definitely did not sell 100mil on new machines.



ahh im glad you mentioned the 1 billion mark, as that is how many phones are sold EVERY YEAR! Also you are talking historic data still.




We shall see. I have set a countdown that will warn me to check the stats again in 2 years time(though i expect most significant changes in the third/forth year), if your still on this forum, til then.. :)

If we discount XP, then we must discount the entire installed base of Macs running pre-Leopard OS X.

You should also throw away all the iPods that are not iPod Touch - they all ran (and still do run - remember the Classic and 3rd generation Nano are still shipping) a proprietary 3rd party kernel with no relation to OS X whatsoever.

All generations of Xboxen do run Windows kernels - out of the box, every time you pop in a game. But to be fair, the original Xbox is no longer shipping, so it shouldn't be counted.

The Zune runs the Windows CE kernel - out of the box (the same kernel as is used in Windows Mobile), but with a single-purpose user interface.

[gifford]

And that's the problem. If we could all predict how the bloody markets would go we'd all be millionaires!

But you make it sound like its impossible to predicts the markets. Thousands of people are successful at doing just that every day. And many are millionaires from it.
Prediction is a fine art, but not impossible.
If a person knows all the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle that surrounds a missing piece, it is possible to predict it's exact shape and size without ever seeing it.
Most people are too involved with one subject matter to see the bigger picture, akin to knowing only one or two sides of a missing puzzle piece.

[cornercuttin]

iPhone looks like its here to stay... Too bad for Windows Mobile. They had a huge head start and everything. Now they just got left in the dust. Like babies.

i will never understand how people can be competitive about products that they don't even design, created by companies they don't work for. why would anyone care if Windows Mobile was doing good or bad? in fact, competition keeps prices low. just because you own an Apple product, that doesn't make you a part of anything. it just makes you a consumer. i own an iPhone, and I love it, but i'm not competing in any way with the guy in the cubicle next to me who has a Windows mobile phone. i like his phone too. his network is faster, and he can play flash games on it, which I cannot do. porn is a lot easier to look at on his too....:D

how people aren't just indifferent to this kind of information, i will never understand. unless you work for Apple, you are writing Apps to sell on the iPhone, or you have a large amount of stock from Apple, you shouldn't care.

[gifford]

If we discount XP, then we must discount the entire installed base of Macs running pre-Leopard OS X.

You should also throw away all the iPods that are not iPod Touch - they all ran (and still do run - remember the Classic and 3rd generation Nano are still shipping) a proprietary 3rd party kernel with no relation to OS X whatsoever.

All generations of Xboxen do run Windows kernels - out of the box, every time you pop in a game. But to be fair, the original Xbox is no longer shipping, so it shouldn't be counted.

The Zune runs the Windows CE kernel - out of the box (the same kernel as is used in Windows Mobile), but with a single-purpose user interface.

i tell ya what, can we just throw out the whole stats cos i didnt put them up originally!!!!!!!! my original point was for new devices and new devices alone.

Ask Syrus28 about it not me

[BongoBanger]

But you make it sound like its impossible to predicts the markets. Thousands of people are successful at doing just that every day. And many are millionaires from it.

I know. I'm an Information Manager for a company that makes billions trading and have a pretty good stock portfolio myself. However, not everyone is au fait with the markets and not even the best players get it right all the time however, more to the point, based on research this looks like a bad gamble.

Prediction is a fine art, but not impossible.

Yup.

If a person knows all the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle that surrounds a missing piece, it is possible to predict it's exact shape and size without ever seeing it.

I know. It's part of what I do.

Most people are too involved with one subject matter to see the bigger picture, akin to knowing only one or two sides of a missing puzzle piece.

But in my job I'm not. I just can't see where Apple will get the leverage at the moment to optimise a synergised OS because of its current market strategy. Sure, if they change it then fine, but that exposes them to other risks - that of losing their 'prestige' tag for one.

[diamond.g]

No, it's not. It's based on Windows CE, currently 6.0, and it doesn't have anything to do with XP, which is based on Windows NT.

Fair enough.

[gifford]

I know. I'm an Information Manager for a company that makes billions trading and have a pretty good stock portfolio myself. However, not everyone is au fait with the markets and not even the best players get it right all the time however.......


Then you know what im talking about, though it appeared in your post that you thought prediction was hocus pocus.
I have been advising people to buy AAPL since they were considering Be or NEXT as the replacement OS. Infact I'm quite happy to go on record and suggest today is a good day also.
Apple have been holding a golden ticket since the day they bought NEXT, their strategy is remarkably simple, yet very few seem to grasp it, including the majority of multi billion dollar companies.
One particular CEO I know (naming no names) of one of the biggest and well known electronics companies, is a lovely man, but it stuck me that he made it to where he was through confidence and brute force alone. A genius this does not make. Most corporate cultures have top brass that are assigned on this survival of the fittest mentality. Hence the lack of vision evident in the majority of boardrooms.
You only have to look at some of the laughable mistakes billion dollar companies make to realize money cant buy common sense.
The philosophy that gave me great confidence in the company(apple) then , still exists today. A large part of that philosophy revolves around open source, and open standards, but im not gonna get into that now as my RSI will be fully agrivated by the time i have finished writing :) what can be given away free will be given away free, those who can exist in this environment will be winners, but fight it and fail. Some companies are better positioned to survive than others.
Apple have an advantage over everyone, creativity, a loyal user base, cool factor, expertise, an infrastructure that only time can build, a grasp of good UI, and a polished unix OS that nobody can recreate in a hurry no matter how many billions X company wants to throw.

[blairwillis]

That's impressive. I think we'll continue to see expanding growth in the smartphone % because many, many people I've talked to are just waiting for existing contracts to expire before switching to the iPhone/AT&T. Not that my informal poll indicates a nationwide trend, but I do talk to lots of people about the iPhone.

[gifford]

You backed HD DVD!!!! :eek: :D ;)

Haha! No, I was blessed with the common sense to realize neither were worth backing. Physical formats died with the dinosaurs.

[Lord Sam]

Go Apple!

[diamond.g]

Haha! No, I was blessed with the common sense to realize neither were worth backing. Physical formats died with the dinosaurs.

Hmm, I take it you don't have a nice home theater (or appreciate high quality content)? If you do you should take a look at the Planet Earth series (in HD). IMO only thing better is actually being there.

And no the 18mbps mpeg 2 crap they show on cable doesn't count.

[gifford]

Hmm, I take it you don't have a nice home theater (or appreciate high quality content)? If you do you should take a look at the Planet Earth series (in HD). IMO only thing better is actually being there.

And no the 18mbps mpeg 2 crap they show on cable doesn't count.

I can see the hairs on the persons chin of whomever happens to be in focus, it really makes no odds to me if I'm watching HD or not.
Anyhow, physical media has many disadvantages and I would trade them in for convenience anyday.
It does not take a rocket scientist nor nostradamus to realize the future of content distribution is online.
HD online distribution will be common place within a couple of years, and blue ray will be the shortest lived format (of the 'winners')in the history data storage, even DAT, betamax and videodisk will have had longer lifespans!

[mrxak]

Okay, I admit I was wrong, the iPhone was actually something people wanted. I'm curious though, how much has the smartphone market actually grown though? Is it old smartphone people buying iPhones, or new people buying them? If it's the latter, then maybe the iPhone has 100% of the iPhone marketshare and a lot less of the smartphone marketshare, if that makes any sense.

[SheriffParker]

how people aren't just indifferent to this kind of information, i will never understand. unless you work for Apple, you are writing Apps to sell on the iPhone, or you have a large amount of stock from Apple, you shouldn't care.

Well I really don't care that much. I post here for fun and enjoyment. I like Apple products. I'd like to see them do well in the future. That's all.

[SiliconAddict]

Apple should get into politics. No doubt 28% is a spun number of some form or another. :rolleyes:

[gifford]

Hey it's just struck me that WebKit will soon be by far the most popular browser engine on the planet. cool. great for developers, great for everyone

[goosnarrggh]

You two are missing the fact that PALM IS A WINDOWS MOBILE DEVICE PRODUCER. I assume the 21% includes Palm as well. Or the analyst is an idiot for not doing so... sorry Im too lazy to actually loook at the article. :)

Palm also sells versions of all of its models running PalmOS FrankenGarnet instead of WM.

So it seems perfectly reasonable to me that its WM business might be lumped into the 21%, and its POS business would be the separate 9%, right?

[BongoBanger]

Hey it's just struck me that WebKit will soon be by far the most popular browser engine on the planet. cool. great for developers, great for everyone

Looks promising with Nokia using a version in their S60 phones it should be the most prevalent mobile browser. Nokia's purchase of Trolltech is also a clear statement of intent.

Not sure if it will crack the desktop/notebook market though - for one thing it would need to be fully usable on Windows based units so we'll need to see how getwebkit and its browser, Swift, perform.

Would point out though that the WebKit we're talking about is the open source KHTML based development stuff, not Apple's own version (which is just used in Safari).

[gifford]

Looks promising with Nokia using a version in their S60 phones it should be the most prevalent mobile browser. Nokia's purchase of Trolltech is also a clear statement of intent.

Not sure if it will crack the desktop/notebook market though - for one thing it would need to be fully usable on Windows based units so we'll need to see how getwebkit and its browser, Swift, perform.

Would point out though that the WebKit we're talking about is the open source KHTML based development stuff, not Apple's own version (which is just used in Safari).

Android as well by the looks of it... http://code.google.com/android/reference/android/webkit/package-summary.html

That's some formidable players.

[diamond.g]

Hey it's just struck me that WebKit will soon be by far the most popular browser engine on the planet. cool. great for developers, great for everyone

Openwave (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openwave) may disagree with that statement. Webkit may have a chance after it has shipped on a billion products.

[gifford]

Openwave (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openwave) may disagree with that statement. Webkit may have a chance after it has shipped on a billion products.

Do you think it has legs though, with the transition over to smartphones? I dont think so personally.

[BongoBanger]

Openwave (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openwave) may disagree with that statement. Webkit may have a chance after it has shipped on a billion products.

Openwave supply a microbrowser though, not a fully blown portable web browser and does not at present offer the same development opportunities as WebKit.

In other words they represent the past, not the future.

[diamond.g]

Openwave supply a microbrowser though, not a fully blown portable web browser and does not at present offer the same development opportunities as WebKit.

In other words they represent the past, not the future.

Until smartphones outsell normal phones Openwave is still very relevant. If all the smartphone sold in the world (2007) only make up 10% of the global market (http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9061178), how can anyone say that Webkit is the future? More people are more likely to use Openwave based on sheer numbers.

Phone makers are trying to attract customers to smart phones, which carry a higher price tag than low-end feature phones. However, converged devices made up just 10% of the global phone market in 2007, the researchers found.

[gifford]

Until smartphones outsell normal phones Openwave is still very relevant. If all the smartphone sold in the world (2007) only make up 10% of the global market (http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9061178), how can anyone say that Webkit is the future? More people are more likely to use Openwave based on sheer numbers.

What percentage are actually using the internet already with smartphones though? They may make up a small % in installed browsers, but I bet the number of pages views by webkit on mobile devices is a way higher % because they are actually useable.
Wont be long until smartphones rule the waves entirely.

[BongoBanger]

Until smartphones outsell normal phones Openwave is still very relevant. If all the smartphone sold in the world (2007) only make up 10% of the global market (http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9061178), how can anyone say that Webkit is the future? More people are more likely to use Openwave based on sheer numbers.

I think you're mixing apples and oranges. Sure, Openwave may be used on simple WAP enabled handsets but the demand for fully functional web access will increase and customers will expect features we see on smartphones now on mass market units. Openware realise this which is why they've diversified so much - the browser is just one product.

[diamond.g]

I think you're mixing apples and oranges. Sure, Openwave may be used on simple WAP enabled handsets but the demand for fully functional web access will increase and customers will expect features we see on smartphones now on mass market units. Openware realise this which is why they've diversified so much - the browser is just one product.

Fair enough.

[Lord Sam]

Magic!