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View Full Version : 'Apple Will Sell 45M iPhones in 2009 -- for $12B of Rev'


MacBytes
Mar 31, 2008, 10:08 PM
http://www.macbytes.com/images/bytessig.gif (http://www.macbytes.com)

Category: Apple Hardware
Link: 'Apple Will Sell 45M iPhones in 2009 -- for $12B of Rev' (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20080331230819)
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Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
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Krafty
Mar 31, 2008, 10:14 PM
Hopefully I'll be one of those buyers

bbplayer5
Mar 31, 2008, 10:24 PM
Ill be one if it has 3G, GPS, and a bigger HD ;)

Pippen Man
Mar 31, 2008, 10:25 PM
45 millions? Yeah right. As long as they have cell phone contracts that cost more then the actual phone, no.

Seriously, 45 million? That is REALLY bold.:rolleyes::apple:

stagi
Mar 31, 2008, 11:04 PM
I don't think I have ever seen anything this analyist has said come true yet, seems like he just makes stuff up. I think if they can roll out more countries, introduce 3g and maybe some new types of iphone (nano?) then maybe 25 mil next year? but 40 is pretty agressive.

DJJONES
Mar 31, 2008, 11:21 PM
that a whole bunch of phones i thnk everyone n there mom will eventually have one

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 06:53 AM
You know, before I opened that article I thought "It's going to be a prediction by Gene 'Comedy' Munster, isn't it?"

No surprise there then.

steve jr.
Apr 1, 2008, 07:25 AM
April Fools! ;)

gkarris
Apr 1, 2008, 09:44 AM
April Fools! ;)

Was posted yesterday..

Just like every iPod (with a screen) now has video.

Soon, every iPod will be an iPhone!!! :eek:

mkrishnan
Apr 1, 2008, 10:03 AM
45 millions? Yeah right. As long as they have cell phone contracts that cost more then the actual phone, no.

That all hinges on rolling out to more markets. The worldwide smartphone market was something like 120M phones per annum in 2007, and it has been growing year over year. If Apple had market share placement in all the major markets at the same level they have in the US, they would sell the 45M easily. And Apple has been converting a lot of people to smartphones that did not previously have one. Not that it'll be easy to roll out to that many markets.

Besides which, how many phones have cell phone contracts (in countries where contracts are used) that cost less than the phone? :rolleyes: Even if you have a basic US market plan of around $40/month, when you sign a two year contract, that's $960, and two year contracts are pretty standard. Even at one year, though, that's more than most phones.

iphonewiz
Apr 1, 2008, 10:06 AM
PC Mag has an interesting article (http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=1639&tag=nl.e622) on how some believe that Apple could sell 45million iPhones.

Sort of makes the case of my original post (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=460751)

I was off by only 12 months. :D

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 10:59 AM
If Apple had market share placement in all the major markets at the same level they have in the US, they would sell the 45M easily. And Apple has been converting a lot of people to smartphones that did not previously have one. Not that it'll be easy to roll out to that many markets.

Very true given the iPhone's muted reception in the European markets which is at least partly driven by your point on pricing.

IJ Reilly
Apr 1, 2008, 11:08 AM
I don't think I have ever seen anything this analyist has said come true yet, seems like he just makes stuff up.

Actually, Munster's record is pretty good (http://guides.macrumors.com/Gene_Munster_%28Analyst%29).

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 11:11 AM
Actually, Munster's record is pretty good (http://guides.macrumors.com/Gene_Munster_%28Analyst%29).

Not really. He tends to take a scattergun approach to things so he gets some right and some wrong.

Of course, so do most analysts.

IJ Reilly
Apr 1, 2008, 11:30 AM
Not really. He tends to take a scattergun approach to things so he gets some right and some wrong.

Of course, so do most analysts.

No, really. Most of the analysts get almost nothing right or close. Gene Munster has been closer to the mark than virtually any of them. He's been rightfully bullish and AAPL longer than any other analyst I can think of.

mkrishnan
Apr 1, 2008, 11:38 AM
Very true given the iPhone's muted reception in the European markets which is at least partly driven by your point on pricing.

It'll be curious to deconvolve the factors and see what happens when there's a 3G iPhone available for Europeans... As I understand it, the phone's cost is comparable to locked competitors (e.g. a locked, contracted high-end S-E or Nokia in the UK), and a lot less than unlocked competitors, and the plans, while limited in offering compared to all plans available, are reasonably competitive to the actual plans most smartphone customers use....

I am actually having trouble finding data on how many iPhones Apple actually sells in Europe. I know the press response was muted, but online sources seem to disagree wildly on whether or not sales in Europe are actually poor or good?

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 11:39 AM
No, really. Most of the analysts get almost nothing right or close. Gene Munster has been closer to the mark than virtually any of them. He's been rightfully bullish and AAPL longer than any other analyst I can think of.

So... are you saying that most analysts don't get their markets mostly right?

Because, you know, that's not even remotely close to true.

IJ Reilly
Apr 1, 2008, 11:53 AM
So... are you saying that most analysts don't get their markets mostly right?

Because, you know, that's not even remotely close to true.

I don't understand your question.

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 12:02 PM
As I understand it, the phone's cost is comparable to locked competitors (e.g. a locked, contracted high-end S-E or Nokia in the UK)

The iPhone is 269 plus minimum contract in the UK. The comparable Nokias, etc are free or 50 plus contract so they're quite a bit cheaper.

and a lot less than unlocked competitors

The base units are but since you can get the competitor units on any network of your choice its not an issue. Practically no-one in Europe buys an unlocked, unsubsidised unit.

and the plans, while limited in offering compared to all plans available, are reasonably competitive to the actual plans most smartphone customers use.

They are now, 02's initial offering was grossly uncompetitive.

I am actually having trouble finding data on how many iPhones Apple actually sells in Europe. I know the press response was muted, but online sources seem to disagree wildly on whether or not sales in Europe are actually poor or good?

The problem is that Apple will not permit its European partners to publish exact sales amounts. Most European analysts and commentators research suggest that the sales are at the lower end of initial projections and that stimulus - such as 02's change of plan allowances - has been required to kick start demand. However, it is unlikely to have sold as much as, say, the Nokia N95 or LG Viewty.

That's why I think 3G is a bit of a red herring and why if Apple don't address the more fundamental issues of pricing and carrier choice they may continue to struggle.

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 12:04 PM
I don't understand your question.

OK, sorry. I guess my main point is that Munster's been lucky so far because he's a bull and Apple are a bull's dream company. However, I don't think his record shows him to be a particularly good analyst in this sector.

In other words he's having a purple patch.

iTeen
Apr 1, 2008, 12:06 PM
Soon, every iPod will be an iPhone!!! :eek:

considering they put it on verizon someday...

skunk
Apr 1, 2008, 12:07 PM
So... are you saying that most analysts don't get their markets mostly right?To paraphrase GBS, if you laid all the analysts end to end, they would not reach a (meaningful) conclusion.

mkrishnan
Apr 1, 2008, 12:11 PM
The iPhone is 269 plus minimum contract in the UK. The comparable Nokias, etc are free or 50 plus contract so they're quite a bit cheaper.

Ahh, thanks for all the clarifications. I wasn't aware phones like the N95 were so cheap on plans...

That could add up to a fair difference... for comparison, I purchased my refurb iPhone for $265USD, inclusive of taxes. My T-Mobile plan is $69.74USD, also inclusive of fees and taxes. I am off contract now, but those are total charges for the services I want anyway, so I would be paying about that much a month anyway. If I changed to AT&T, their service is slightly more expensive -- their plan that is more or less equivalent (fewer minutes, fewer SMS, but their hotspot plan, which is better than T-Mobile's is now) costs $80, not inclusive of taxes and fees. So in that example, for instance, over two years, the difference in plan costs would actually be larger than the initial cost of the iPhone. To me, that means I don't really care about the iPhone's $265 price tag....

I can see how 265 pounds would be a different matter, though.

BongoBanger
Apr 1, 2008, 12:23 PM
I can see how 265 pounds would be a different matter, though.

Yeah, it's initial perception. Most people don't look at the total cost of their contract (which is usually 12 or 18 months), they only look at what they pay out each month.

IJ Reilly
Apr 1, 2008, 01:26 PM
OK, sorry. I guess my main point is that Munster's been lucky so far because he's a bull and Apple are a bull's dream company. However, I don't think his record shows him to be a particularly good analyst in this sector.

In other words he's having a purple patch.

Maybe. None of these guys gets it right anywhere close to all the time, but if you look at the record, Munster has been much closer to the mark than some of the other analysts we hear from often, such as almost-never-right Shaw Wu and the consistently negative Rob Enderle.

rjflyn
Apr 1, 2008, 04:07 PM
I buy it if they are unlock otherwise they there is no way in hadies.
http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=1639
Rj

Michael CM1
Apr 1, 2008, 04:31 PM
This is hardly impossible if a 3G iPhone is sold in China. They don't exactly have 4 or 5 carriers like the US does (more like 1) and have a billion frickin people. They're also courting Japan, and I'm betting that India is on the map as well.

stiphone
Apr 1, 2008, 06:28 PM
well, i guess it'll only work when they expand out to all other regions of the world. Right now, it's just concentrated in US and Europe...

BongoBanger
Apr 2, 2008, 04:36 AM
Maybe. None of these guys gets it right anywhere close to all the time, but if you look at the record, Munster has been much closer to the mark than some of the other analysts we hear from often, such as almost-never-right Shaw Wu and the consistently negative Rob Enderle.

Very true. Enderle is just awful.