Toshiba Doubling 1.8-inch HDD Production

[MacRumors]

Today, Toshiba announced (http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/11/10/rtr1142841.html) that they will be doubling production of their popular 1.8" hard drives by March 2004.

Toshiba plans to expand into 1" hard drives in the future. 1" form factor drives are already being produced by Hitachi at this time.

The 1.8" Toshiba hard drive has been used in the Apple iPod throughout its existence and at least some of the additional production is expected to supply demand for the popular iPod.

[Trowaman]

Anyways, could this mean what I think it does? Thinner, lighter 4th generation iPods? 1" thick ain't bad. Anyways double the iPod sales (how long until I hear 2 million sold?).
:D

[Rocketman]

Would these drives also be used for a portable video solution or device?

[arby]

Some good news for the iPod, especially after all the iPod-bashing over at CNET recently. Eventually Apple will go with a 1" drive which will then make the iPod even more competitive, lighter, still able to hold about 204 billion tunes ...

[fBaran]

1" HD + .8" battery = I hope better battery life one day.

[gwuMACaddict]

interesting... do the new dell or samsung players use the toshiba drives? i'd like to see apple use the new 1" drives in the nextgen ipod

[arn]

I just think this means that the iPod and iPod-like devices have been very popular.

Increased production should eventually lead to decreased costs.

arn

[gwuMACaddict]

Originally posted by arn

Increased production should eventually lead to decreased costs.


i like the sound of THAT. i posted a few weeks ago that i expect to see price drops before the Christmas season, as a move to thwart people from buying the new dell player

[vidboi]

Originally posted by Macrumors
Toshiba is the only manufacturer of 1.8" hard drives and plans to expand into 1" hard drives in the future.

According to this CNET article (http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5102439.html) Hitachi already makes 1.8 drives, albeit in smaller sizes such as 15 GB and 20 GB.

[yoman]

I could easily see 1 inch drive ipods in the future. That could free up more space within its structure to allow more features (color video screen, FM transmitter, etc..) or expanded features (longer battery life, cheaper price,etc...)

Either way I sure would like to see this next generation. :)

[Sol]

I do not think that this news implies anything about new capacities, just that the demand for these drives has gone up. This was to be expected with Dell and Samsung/Napster ripping off the iPod with their own music players. There is also the iPod itself which is dominating the music player market.

When 1" disc capacities start reaching 5-10 GB and 1.8" discs exceed 100 GB I can see Apple spliting the iPod into two products: music and video. A new, smaller iPod that would use the 1" drive will be for music and backup, much like the current model is. The bigger iPod will be for video on the go, with the capacity to hold near-broadcast quality movies and the capability to output these on either a built-in screen or an external television through standard AV cables.

Whatever happens, Toshiba will be in the middle of all this.

[the_mole1314]

Sounds like we might see some smaller iPods before XMas.

[rickvanr]

does 1.8" mean the diameter of the harddisk?

would this mean the ipod would still be as thick, just smaller, right?

could the ipod still be as easy to use if it got much smaller?

wouldnt it be neat to have the ipod resemble a flip open cell phone? then it could be smaller in your pocket, and still have a large screen and controls...

just my 2 cents

[~Shard~]

Originally posted by yoman
I could easily see 1 inch drive ipods in the future. That could free up more space within its structure to allow more features (color video screen, FM transmitter, etc..) or expanded features (longer battery life, cheaper price,etc...)

Either way I sure would like to see this next generation. :)

I agree - with the saved space, I'm sure Apple will take full advantage of this and incorporate color screens, video, better battery life, or who knows what!

I don't think this will necessarily lead to larger capacity drives initially, but will definitely lead to a 4G iPod with enhanced functionality. Although if video is going to be incorporated into future iPods, the more capacity the better! I think HD capacities will naturally increase though over time, regardless of their size...

[Malic]

Originally posted by rickvanr
does 1.8" mean the diameter of the harddisk?

would this mean the ipod would still be as thick, just smaller, right?


Yes, that's the diameter of the platter - some people are getting that wrong here.

A couple of comments:

1) Just because they are rev'ing up 1-inch platter products doesn't mean that Apple will automatically use them.
2) But they might. And that's interesting. A narrower audio iPod would be slick and a video iPod would be also very slick. And expensive, no doubt :\

[bankshot]

Originally posted by Macrumors
Toshiba plans to expand into 1" hard drives in the future. 1" form factor drives are already being produced by Hitachi at this time.

Interesting choice of words. I'd think Toshiba would want to contract into 1" hard drives... :p

Personally, I think this is potentially bad for Apple but good for us. Bad for them because it means more competitors are looking to produce iPod knockoffs with potentially the same bestselling form factor and capacities. Good for us because Apple will be forced to lower prices to keep up and possibly even innovate further. Plus as other people said, higher production probably means lower costs per unit, which means Apple may not be quite so reluctant to lower prices anyway.

Incidentally, are the Hitachi 1" drives maybe the same as the IBM MicroDrives? I recall the IBM sold off their hard drive business to Hitachi sometime in the last year. I wonder if competition among drive suppliers can also only help bring prices down.

Sounds like the future of iPod is pretty bright. Of course, I'm happy with mine and only desire a couple of small improvements (there's always hope that they listened to me for the next firmware update!). I figure my next portable music player may wait until they have decent voice recognition (5-10 years out, or longer???). Imagine driving in the car and telling your iPod to mix up a playlist of only early songs from a few certain artists. All while keeping your hands on the wheel and eyes on the road!

[sethypoo]

Hasn't Job's put down the idea of increased iPod functionality? I distinctly remember him putting down the idea of a line in function on the iPod. If he doesn't want a line in, why would he ever want video?

[sethypoo]

Just to add:
I really don't think a smaller iPod is exactly better. Apple can't shrink those buttons much more, it still needs to have its legendary ease of use.

[arn]

Originally posted by the_mole1314
Sounds like we might see some smaller iPods before XMas.

How did u come to that conclusion?

Nothing in this news item suggests anything of the sort. 1" drives currently exist... Apple hasn't used 'em yet. Toshiba plans to make them in the future -- no timeframe specified.

arn

[1macker1]

How do you get anything about the iPod out of this article. I dont really see anything iPod specific.

[Ja Di ksw]

Just when the only, ONLY thing holding me back from a new iPod was what to get engraved on the back, this comes up, and now I have the added worry of "are they going to drop prices soon? Should I wait?" Sigh. I doubt anything really new will come out until a few months have passed, but a price drop would be nice, especially since I'm planning on dropping even more money on a powerbook

[jxyama]

um, iPod uses these 1.8" HD... but this is just a matter of increased supply, so i don't think anything can be said about use of 1" HD in iPods, etc. those are pure speculations...

any news on the capacity of 1.8" HD? i *think* they top out at around 80 GB right now? when will *those* make it to iPods?

[jxyama]

Originally posted by Ja Di ksw
Just when the only, ONLY thing holding me back from a new iPod was what to get engraved on the back, this comes up, and now I have the added worry of "are they going to drop prices soon? Should I wait?" Sigh. I doubt anything really new will come out until a few months have passed, but a price drop would be nice, especially since I'm planning on dropping even more money on a powerbook

i really wouldn't worry about a price drop... if anything, capacity will go up for the same price. that's been the case with ipod updates. capacities have increased from 5 GB to 10 GB at the bottom, 20 to 30 to 40 GB at the top, but you still had to pay $300 and $500, respectively. i'd say chances of smaller iPods selling below $300 is not very likely at the moment. (yeah, i know jobs said some things about "cheaper" iPods, but there's no timeline on that...)

[jxyama]

Originally posted by bankshot
Interesting choice of words. I'd think Toshiba would want to contract into 1" hard drives... :p

Personally, I think this is potentially bad for Apple but good for us. Bad for them because it means more competitors are looking to produce iPod knockoffs with potentially the same bestselling form factor and capacities.

um, toshiba and hitachi are general suppliers. as far as i know, toshiba doesn't supply those 1.8" HD just to apple. you can see it in the main article - "at least some of the additional production is expected to supply demand for the popular iPod." so increased supply doesn't mean there will be more iPod knock-offs using these HDs - they could have made those already. your other point is valid, however, competitors may pass on the increased supply savings to the customers. dunno what apple will do.

[dh9012]

Smaller drives usually mean lower power consumption too. Are these drives used in any of the Powerbook or iBook line-ups?

A smaller diameter drive could also lend itself to easier implementation of a new and more organic form factor.

Yes, it can be smaller and as easy to use.

Unless your "The Shack"

[yoman]

Originally posted by jxyama
i really wouldn't worry about a price drop... if anything, capacity will go up for the same price. that's been the case with ipod updates. capacities have increased from 5 GB to 10 GB at the bottom, 20 to 30 to 40 GB at the top, but you still had to pay $300 and $500, respectively. i'd say chances of smaller iPods selling below $300 is not very likely at the moment. (yeah, i know jobs said some things about "cheaper" iPods, but there's no timeline on that...)

It would be nice though if Jobs considered a cheaper ipod similar to the eMac line for desktops. Why not call it an ePOD. I can't afford the ipod's current price b/c I'm a poor student. Hopefully the ePod will become a reality.
:)

[arn]

Originally posted by Ja Di ksw
"are they going to drop prices soon? Should I wait?" Sigh. I doubt anything really new will come out until a few months have passed, but a price drop would be nice, especially since I'm planning on dropping even more money on a powerbook

Um... I wouldn't read into this at all.

Production always increases on new technologies. Toshiba just happened to post a press release on the topic.

arn

[jxyama]

Originally posted by yoman
It would be nice though if Jobs considered a cheaper ipod similar to the eMac line for desktops. Why not call it an ePOD. I can't afford the ipod's current price b/c I'm a poor student. Hopefully the ePod will become a reality.
:)

even then, i'd imagine something like the ePod would be around $200. i'd be very surprised to see apple venture into the price range where things starts to become a commodity.

either that or it will have to have sufficiently "crippled" features to justify differentiation from "upscale" iPods and maintain the margins.

[RandomMacGuy]

Randomly concerning battery life, as I hear a WHOLE lot about it, the only way you'll be seeing increased battery life in an iPod is (a) more energy efficient components or (b) a bigger battery.

The iPod uses a lithium-ion battery and if you look at the periodic table you'll see were running out of elements to use in these suckers.

From the looks of things, all the components currently in an iPod are extremely efficient. I'll leave the processes of elimination to the reader.

It feels like of weird to say, but batteries are about as good as they're going to get.

-1 Off Topic

[jxyama]

Originally posted by RandomMacGuy
It feels like of weird to say, but batteries are about as good as they're going to get.

not weird at all. battery technologies have been improving at a snail's pace compared to the deviced they are used in. from Ni-Cd to Ni-MH to Li, the capacity has not increased and the size has not decreased substantially. unfortunately, as long as batteries depend on chemical processes to generate/hold charge, dramatic improvements are unlikely...

i'm sure there's quite a bit of R&D being done and if some company is to invent a new method, it stands to profit enormously... but likely from a non-chemical processes...

[greenstork]

IMO, there is only one thing that you can definitively pull from this article as it relates to the iPod. That is, 1.8" drives will be in much higher supply (double current production). Demand staying equal, this will drive down prices significantly on these drives. However, I'd venture to guess that demand is ramping up with the growth of online music stores fueling the growth of mp3 player sales.

Even if demand does increase into the near future, my guess is that increased supply of drives will drive down prices of the iPod somewhat (edit: or drive up margins for Apple, who knows), in conjunction with increased competition in the mp3 player market.

On the speculative side, a 1" HD from Toshiba sound interesting, and that's about all I think anyone can say about that.

[1macker1]

Yeah the iPod uses these, and. It doesnt say the increase in production is iPod related.
Originally posted by jxyama
um, iPod uses these 1.8" HD... but this is just a matter of increased supply, so i don't think anything can be said about use of 1" HD in iPods, etc. those are pure speculations...

any news on the capacity of 1.8" HD? i *think* they top out at around 80 GB right now? when will *those* make it to iPods?

I see it as everyone has started to get into the MP3 player business, therefore the demand for the HD's are increasing. Alot of the newcomers are using the 1.8" HD.

[FlamDrag]

Even IF the increase in production brought down prices for Apple, don't expect those savings (however miniscule) to be seen on our end.

Geez, if there were a press release on MR that said "Company X announced today that they make brown paper bags." some posters on this board would expect brown paper Powerbooks ASAP.

This is one story to take at face value.

[jettredmont]

Originally posted by fBaran
1" HD + .8" battery = I hope better battery life one day.

My thoughts exactly.

My fingers aren't going to shrink to half their size in the next year; it'd be silly for the iPod and hence its controls to be shrunk down too.

On the other hand, a smaller drive means a bigger battery can fit.

Of course, the 1" drives are pretty low-capacity these days ... I can't see Apple moving to a 1.5GB iPod any time soon, not with the success their larger drive models have been having ...

[greenstork]

Originally posted by FlamDrag
Even IF the increase in production brought down prices for Apple, don't expect those savings (however miniscule) to be seen on our end.

Geez, if there were a press release on MR that said "Company X announced today that they make brown paper bags." some posters on this board would expect brown paper Powerbooks ASAP.

This is one story to take at face value.

While this story isn't a primary indicator of price drops, other factors lead me to believe that price cutting is in the near future.

1) Steve Jobs stated publicly that he wants to sell cheaper iPods but can't get cheap enough compnents. With an increased supply of Toshiba drives, this may be changing.

2) Competition in the mp3 player market is growing. With increased competition, almost *always* means price drops across the industry. I think this will be a bigger factor in price drops than cheaper drives.

If you consider both of these factors influencing price and Steve Jobs public stated intentions, it could mean cheaper iPods. I would venture to guess at least a $50 price cut across the board within a year is likely. While not nearly as likely, but possible, would be a $100 price cut. I don't think this will happen but it is possible.

[the_dalex]

I'm pretty sure Apple has been paying the lowest possible prices for the 1.8" drives, and I doubt they will see substantial savings after production ramps up. My guess is that Toshiba is trying to meet demand, not drive prices down... since every true "iPod competitor" has to have the same size (or smaller) drive. Prices may go down as a result, or Toshiba may decide to start enjoying some better profit margins... who knows?

I would be very surprised to see a new iPod before Christmas, but they've revamped the iPod more often than any other product I know of... I just don't know what they can do to make it a better music player (yes, that's what it is, for many of you who have forgotten).

[jxyama]

i highly doubt an ipod update anytime soon. january, at the earliest and probably just capacity increases, at best. apple is probably yet to capitalize on all the new dock-related features and i doubt they will do a complete design change in the mean time.

check MR's buyer's guide. last update was in sept. and one before that, april. the sept. update was for the holidays. i'm sure many people will buy an ipod for the holidays due to iTMS windows port and generally high exposure they've been receiving/spreading.

also, HD price may come down a bit, but that's not all there's to the iPod. i hear DAC in the iPod is of quite a high quality and those things are not ideal parts to skimp on.

i don't see apple making commodity mp3 players any time soon. there are plenty of makers already and they don't yield the same profit as ipods. in addition, novelty factor will wear off on the high capacity ipods if sub-$100 ipods were to be introduced anyway..?

instead of a price cut, apple will do the same thing they do on macs. they will increase the features/capacities and keep the prices the same. dramatic prices cuts will only happen once competitions get really stiff and starts to affect apple ipod's bottom line. why discount when they are still selling like hotcakes?

[Photorun]

Another thread where I left baffled why people voted this is a "negative."

Admittedly Jobs had said iPods were going to remain part of DLD, so please no conclusion jumps that it'll become a fullfledged NewtonII. However, with increased possible need for room with media and voice recorders, etc., it's make sense that someday, someday soon, the current 40GB will nto be enough. Bring on the 80GB iPod.

[1macker1]

I think times are changing for apple. They just can't add features and keep the base price. There are too many other companies that are going to try and undercut apple in pricing. And I think many will be able to do so. Apple will have to make a lower priced entry level unit, and make it soon. Not saying that it has to be cheaper than the other MP3 players, but atleast competitive price wise.

I dont think the old "same price, more features" will continue to work once they other companies release their MP3 players.

[ITR 81]

With increased production to me that means slightly lower pricing on next gen iPods. I believe the smaller HD would mean smaller and less features on next economy sized iPod in the 5-10GB range to combat the cheap MP3 players.

I'm sure the next iPod battery power will go up probably to 10-12hrs.

[Rocketman]

Originally posted by 1macker1
How do you get anything about the iPod out of this article. I dont really see anything iPod specific.

Yes I think you are right. This is about the new Cube form factor G5 with internal RAID using 2 of the drives.

:)

Of course it is about the iPod becoming a fad.

I have never seen such a rapid ramp-up of Apple mindshare and of course the total magnitude is at record levels.

:cool:

[the_dalex]

Apple doesn't have to lower prices. Pretty much every single consumer market has a "premium" brand with a superior design and a higher price. The HDD-based portable music player market will do just fine with the Fords and Kias (Dell, Archon, etc.) as well as the BMWs and Mercedes (Apple, maybe Sony, we'll see).

People just don't get that Apple isn't going for a "most units sold" record. Profitability is not about slashing prices to sell more units. Apple wants the iPod to remain a profitable product that heavily influences the market, and they have that... I consider the iPod to be superior to the competition, and most people agree, so a lot of people will be willing to pay a higher price. That's how this whole "capitalism" thing works... instead of homogenizing all of the products in the market, they are segmented into further sub-categories which appeal to different demographics. The wild success of the iPod is due to the fact that almost every person prefers the iPod, but the price is the only barrier.

Don't forget, it's easy to lower prices, but it's almost impossible to raise them. They can't feasibly fluctuate along with the component market, but the product life evens it out over time (margins start small but increase, a new model starts that cycle over).

[the_mole1314]

Originally posted by arn
How did u come to that conclusion?

Nothing in this news item suggests anything of the sort. 1" drives currently exist... Apple hasn't used 'em yet. Toshiba plans to make them in the future -- no timeframe specified.

arn

I have heard some things, lets say that. I'll spill my beans when it happens.

[Photorun]

Originally posted by the_mole1314
I have heard some things, lets say that. I'll spill my beans when it happens.

Oh c'mon the_mole, you're going to have to better than this, don't be a tease. You think Apple Legal reads these forums?

[scratches head thinking maybe they do]

[the_mole1314]

Well, I'll say this, from what I've heard, Apple might release a product that'll crush the flash-based market. Remeber, subject to change.

[jxyama]

Originally posted by the_dalex
Apple doesn't have to lower prices. Pretty much every single consumer market has a "premium" brand with a superior design and a higher price. The HDD-based portable music player market will do just fine with the Fords and Kias (Dell, Archon, etc.) as well as the BMWs and Mercedes (Apple, maybe Sony, we'll see).

People just don't get that Apple isn't going for a "most units sold" record. Profitability is not about slashing prices to sell more units. Apple wants the iPod to remain a profitable product that heavily influences the market, and they have that... I consider the iPod to be superior to the competition, and most people agree, so a lot of people will be willing to pay a higher price. That's how this whole "capitalism" thing works... instead of homogenizing all of the products in the market, they are segmented into further sub-categories which appeal to different demographics. The wild success of the iPod is due to the fact that almost every person prefers the iPod, but the price is the only barrier.

Don't forget, it's easy to lower prices, but it's almost impossible to raise them. They can't feasibly fluctuate along with the component market, but the product life evens it out over time (margins start small but increase, a new model starts that cycle over).

while some people won't agree with your car analogy, i do - well said. the market is fragmented and apple need not address the entire mp3 player market at all... profit is the bottom line, not the number of units sold. i'm sure apple will definitely react when a comparably equipped device targeting the same market segment starts eating into iPod sales

OR

the segment of the mp3 player market not targeted by iPods starts to dominate

[sushi]

Originally posted by Macrumors
Today, Toshiba announced (http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/11/10/rtr1142841.html) that they will be doubling production of their popular 1.8" hard drives by March 2004.

This may have more to do with increased laptop computer sales than with iPod sales. The computers that use these devices seem to be very popular in Japan these days.

Sushi

[savar]

Originally posted by greenstork
1) Steve Jobs stated publicly that he wants to sell cheaper iPods but can't get cheap enough compnents. With an increased supply of Toshiba drives, this may be changing.

2) Competition in the mp3 player market is growing. With increased competition, almost *always* means price drops across the industry. I think this will be a bigger factor in price drops than cheaper drives.

If you consider both of these factors influencing price and Steve Jobs public stated intentions, it could mean cheaper iPods. I would venture to guess at least a $50 price cut across the board within a year is likely. While not nearly as likely, but possible, would be a $100 price cut. I don't think this will happen but it is possible.

I agree totally. Apple is currently making nearly $175 profit on the high end models, something which they can eat into since iTMS is probably going to send iPod demand through the roof.

The interest is already there, Apple just has to read the market right to capitalize on the opportunity..heh, so to speak.

I was the first person I knew to buy an iPod (5G, 1st gen). Since then I must see 5 every day...and this among poor college students! :)

[jxyama]

Originally posted by the_mole1314
Well, I'll say this, from what I've heard, Apple might release a product that'll crush the flash-based market. Remeber, subject to change.

interesting... so maybe they will be going after the market i posted right above after "OR" part...

i'm not sure how ipod can be adapted into beating the flash-based market... hmm.

[jxyama]

Originally posted by savar
I agree totally. Apple is currently making nearly $175 profit on the high end models, something which they can eat into since iTMS is probably going to send iPod demand through the roof.


i really hate to be picky, but i also don't want some people to get expectations of un-appleish price drop. (and then complain when it doesn't materialize) if the demand would be "through the roof due to iTMS," why would you drop the price?

[greenstork]

Originally posted by jxyama
i really hate to be picky, but i also don't want some people to get expectations of un-appleish price drop. (and then complain when it doesn't materialize) if the demand would be "through the roof due to iTMS," why would you drop the price?

I have to say that I think what is happening now in online music sales and mp3 players sales is a land grab for market share and *not* strictly to maintain high margins. I'm the guy usuallly arguing against increased market share in the computer segment because I'd rather have higher margin, better, innovative products. So in most instances, I would completely agree with you. However, I think Apple wants to own the mp3 player market. To do that, they must grab as much market share as they can, hence the *huge* marketing push.

Keep in mind that they are also pushing their format, AAC. It cannot be understated the significance that AAC vs WMA. Market share will determine how this will play out in the next few years.

That said, while I normally think profits and long term viability are the best for Apple and its customers, I just don't think they are heading down that road. This is a land grab for market share by my observations, which means they just might price themselves competitively. There will still be an Apple premium, but I would guess that it's not as large as it stands right now as un-Applish as that sounds.

Ask youself how Applish a partnership with McDonalds is?

[jettredmont]

Originally posted by dh9012
Smaller drives usually mean lower power consumption too.

Conversely, smaller drives tend to have slower access times as well. You take the good with the bad ...

[billyboy]

Perhaps with the earth changes going on at Apple they could break away and give a design for a $150 restricted feature player ie "ePod" to some obscure Taiwanese manufacturer under license. Make it totally AAC/ iTMS compatable and put the new company straight on the MP3 world map as the first decent for-the-masses player for iTMS. Apple make money behind the scenes without detracting from the high end appeal of iPod, iTMS gets a major promo, and Apple get around the monopoly guys when they dominate the music store scene in a few years time.

[jxyama]

Originally posted by greenstork
Keep in mind that they are also pushing their format, AAC. It cannot be understated the significance that AAC vs WMA. Market share will determine how this will play out in the next few years.

this, i forgot to consider. AAC gaining popularity would be a great thing. i ripped all of my CDs in AAC, thinking me and my ipod would be all i'd use... but i can't share my music with my gf (iTunes for windows helps... she has a dell) if she ever wants to buy a non-iPod portable player...

[Analog Kid]

Originally posted by fBaran
1" HD + .8" battery = I hope better battery life one day.

I'll second that-- fill the space with battery.

[Analog Kid]

Does anyone understand how the hard drive market works? Announcing that they are going to double their production seems strange to me, coming from a market area where you produce according to demand...

I suppose their forecasts could show that demand is about to double, but the way it's phrased it sounds like production capacity is slightly more decoupled-- build them and then price to sell?

[Analog Kid]

The article mentions hand-held GPS receivers as a market. Is this the typical Japanese throw a dart at the high tech dart board to decide a target market, or is there really a product out there?

Most GPS receivers, it seems, can transfer data through a serial port. Hardly the type of thing you'd need to strap a hard drive to for a days work...

[srobert]

A 1 incher drive would be very good for digital cameras don't you think?

Of course, Apple as stated more than once that it did not plan to enter the digital photography market. Too much competition and there is already mighty fine products out there.